reliable measurement as a key to sustainable ......reliable measurement as a key to sustainable...

RELIABLE MEASUREMENT AS A KEY TO

SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT PLANNING

Presentation to the 2012 Test & Measurement Conference, 2nd to the 5th of September 2012, Elangeni Hotel & Conference Centre, Durban, South Africa

Presentation compiled and presented by Peter Lukey, Chief Policy Advisor: Strategic

Environmental Intelligence, Department of Environmental Affairs

MRV’S INAUSPICIOUS START

Everyone involved in international climate change

negotiations talks about MRV – outcomes, increases,

reductions, transfers, inputs, outputs and/or products

that are Measurable, Reportable and Verifiable

The concept of audit, the motivation behind MRV, is not

a concept associated with trust

However, mistrust has an upside – better planning and

improved outcomes confirmed through accurate

Measurement, Reporting and Verification

MRV AND THE PRESIDENCY

The Presidency’s “outcome-based approach” that is

the basis for Ministers’ performance contracts

Derived from

ANC’s Manifesto,

MTSF, POA and

Departments

strategic plans

Outcomes

Measure 3–5

outputs that tell us

whether we are

making progress

in delivering the

outcome

Tested with

internal and

external experts

Outputs

Measure delivery

of key activities

that we believe will

fundamentally

enhance the

performance of

the conversion

process

Activities

Determine optimal

allocation of inputs

given desired

outcomes

Reallocate inputs if

necessary

Input

What are the key

outcomes that

Government wants to

achieve?

Which priority outputs

should we measure to

see if we are achieving

each outcome?

Where should the

system focus in order

to achieve the outputs?

How much do we need

to invest to achieve the

best mix of desired

outcomes?

Step 1Step 2Step 3Step 4

Input-

Outcome

Model

New

Evaluation

and

Monitoring

Approach

THE CLIMATE CHANGE POLICY

To formulate effective responses to climate change, South Africa needs a country-wide monitoring system to measure climate variables at scales appropriate to the institutions

that must implement climate change responses.

The “Informed decision-making and planning” Strategic Priority –

prioritise research, systemic observation, knowledge generation, information management and early warning systems that increase our ability to measure and predict

climate change and the implications of its adverse effects on the economy, society and the environment.

MRV AND THE CLIMATE CHANGE POLICY

Chapter 12 of South Africa’s National Climate Change

Response Policy (2011) deals with “Monitoring and

Evaluation” –

Part 1 deals with “Monitoring Climate Change” –

Given the nature and implications of climate change

and the economic and social implications of effective

climate change responses, decisions must be based

on accurate, current and complete information in

order to reduce risk and ensure that interventions are

effective.

CLIMATE CHANGE POLICY – MONITORING

CLIMATE CHANGE

Ensure that nation-wide climate change and

atmosphere monitoring systems are maintained and

enhanced where necessary, including through

monitoring networks at appropriate spatial density and

frequency that monitor, among others -

rainfall,

ambient air temperature,

humidity,

soil moisture,

wind and solar radiation,

lightning,

extreme weather event characteristics and their impacts,

selected atmospheric GHGs,

gas fluxes from selected vegetation,

soil and marine carbon pools,

sea levels,

sea surface temperature,

ocean current behaviour and acidity.


CLIMATE CHANGE (Cont.)

Data analysis, synthesis, archiving, interpretation and dissemination will be a key component of this effort.

Ensure that climate change impacts are monitored at appropriate spatial density and frequency, where feasible, of changes in –

spatial distribution and incidence of climate-sensitive diseases;

ecosystems and the goods and services they supply;

key species responses (including invasive alien species);

wildfire hydrology and water resources; and

agricultural and forestry production.


RESPONSES

Part 3 deals with “Monitoring Response” –

To monitor the success of responses to climate change and to replicate the ones that have worked well, we need

to measure their cost, outcome and impact.

The outcomes-based system –

Monitoring and evaluation of the Country’s climate change programme shall be undertaken through the

outcomes-based system that the Presidency has established and shall be reported through the delivery

forums for these outcomes.


RESPONSES (Cont.)

Mitigation monitoring – South Africa’s climate change mitigation interventions will be monitored

and measured against the National Emissions Trajectory Range

The implementation of objectives and measures specified in the Carbon

Budget and sectoral mitigation strategies will be measured, reported and

verified to assess progress in their implementation.

The Climate Change Response Monitoring and Evaluation System will

assess indicators defined in the Carbon Budget and sectoral mitigation

strategies which may include indicators of:

implementation,

local sustainable development benefits and

the impact of programmes and measures on emissions.

MRV AND AIR QUALITY MANAGEMENT

Prior to the new Air Quality Act (2004) –

Outdated legislation dating back to 1965

Some data collected, but not used

Negotiated or WAG1 approach to emission regulation

No planning

No national government air quality monitoring

No information sharing

1 “Wild-assed guess”

SAAQIS – 2020 VISION

The vision for the South African Air Quality Information System (SAAQIS) in 2020 –

Ambient Air Quality Information –

There are stations monitoring the problem air pollutants in areas that cover at least 90% of places where South Africans work and live

There is full monitoring coverage in all metros and large cities

At least 90% of the monitoring stations are fully operational, properly maintained and are SANAS accredited

A number of background stations are located so as to sample air masses of terrestrial or marine origin

SAAQIS 2020 VISION – AMBIENT AIR QUALITY

(Cont.)

Where practical and appropriate AQ monitoring

equipment is incorporated into the standard SAWS

climate monitoring platforms such as the AWS, or

moving platforms such as aircraft, ships or buoys.

Scientists are highly complementary of the National

Air Quality Monitoring Network and data from the

network is often used in scientific publications

We confidently estimate the national cost of poor air

quality using available ambient air quality data

SAAQIS 2020 VISION – AMBIENT AIR QUALITY

(Cont.)

We are adequately filling monitoring station data gaps

with data collected by satellites

The National Air Quality Indicator provides a useful

measure of the overall quality of South Africa’s air

We are well along a path of using near real time satellite

data as our primary information source “ground-truthed”

by monitoring station data

We have assisted our neighbours in establishing

monitoring stations and they are also feeding

information to SAAQIS making its ambient air quality

module the “Southern African” air quality information

system

SAAQIS 2020 VISION – INDUSTRIAL EMISSION

REGULATION

Industrial Emission Regulation

All Atmospheric Emission Licensing (AEL) applications, renewals, amendments are channelled to the Licensing Authority via the SAAQIS on-line licensing portal

National, provincial and local government are getting real-time data and statistics around AELs (no of applications, to whom, new industry development trends, backlogs, bottlenecks, etc.)

Air Quality Officers have full access to AELs, emissions data, regulatory, enforcement and complaints histories


REGULATION (Cont.)

Automatic warnings of reporting and emission non-compliance are being generated and posted to affected officials

Automatic lists of possible suspects causing ambient air quality standard non-compliance are being generated and posted to affected officials and e-mailed query to suspect is generated

Air quality modelling support is being provided for EIAs, planning, industrial development scenarios, SEAs, etc.

AQOs are accessing up to date manuals, guidelines, protocols, case studies.


REGULATION (Cont.)

Sector AELA contact lists are being generated and sector discussion forums are being used (e.g. to discuss disturbing trend in the tyre recycling industry)

Communication to all AEL holders is taking place through bulk e-mails

Air pollution warnings and poor dispersion condition updates are being provided to AQOs and AEL holders

Register of all air quality offset interventions is being used

National atmospheric emission inventory and associated analysis and reports are being generated

Satellite imaged air pollution hotspots are automatically ground-truthed and warnings issued…

SAAQIS 2020 VISION – GENERAL AIR QUALITY

MANAGEMENT

General Air Quality Management –

Automated warnings of poor ambient air quality and/or poor dispersion conditions are triggering response interventions, e.g. fire stations extinguish veld fires, and warn local health services

“Dirty pictures” are being used to name and shame air polluters

IAPs are accessing all air quality management plans and associated progress and status reports

Road traffic emission monitoring and modelling is assisting in transport system and infrastructure design

SAAQIS 2020 VISION – GENERAL AIR QUALITY

MANAGEMENT (Cont.)

Road traffic emission monitoring is sending

automated reports of “mega-polluter” to local EMIs

(links to toll gantry photos being explored)

On line training modules for air quality monitoring

technicians, planners, licensing authorities, etc.

Up to date internal and external research findings

published and “blogged”

SAAQIS 2020 VISION – REPUTATION

SAAQIS is a well known and respected website amongst everyone who has some interest in South African Air Quality –

Municipal and provincial officials use it on a daily basis to check the air in their areas, download manuals, check AEL status, new research and news articles

NGOs and CBOs visit the site on, at least, a monthly basis to download the ambient air quality data to inform their campaigns and comments on EIAs, check out new regulatory developments, see how well we are performing against our air quality and climate change mitigation targets

Researchers visit the site for data and reference materials

SAAQIS 2020 VISION – REPUTATION (Cont.)

Consultants visit the site for data and to get emissions data for dispersion models

Teachers and learners utilise the site extensively for school projects

International developers use the site to check out pollution hotspots to avoid

People use on-line tutorial to get full benefit from SAAQIS

Our neighbouring countries find the site a valuable source of inspiration for their own air quality management initiatives

The factory environmental manager uses SAAQIS to do mandatory emission reporting

SAAQIS 2020 VISION – REPUTATION (Cont.)

Developers are using SAAQIS’ on-line license application facility

The department is using SAAQIS as it’s key air quality monitoring, reporting and verification system

EMIs are getting air quality complaints and are logging responses

The Presidency and the National Planning Commission are using SAAQIS graphs and graphics to illustrate air quality trends and performance

The aviation sector is getting visibility data and forecasts

The media are getting air quality forecasts and other potential news stories…

The SAAQIS

server at SAWS

Validation module for

monitoring networks

Data reports

generating tools

Data assessment

tools

Emission monitoring &

reporting

Reports

Ambient air quality

monitoring stations

The SAAQIS web

site

ENVIRONMENTAL OFFSETTING

Death by a thousand cuts –

ENVIRONMENTAL OFFSETTING (Cont.)

Death by a thousand cuts –


Environmental restoration and/or rehabilitation – Some changes in land use can provide a net environmental

improvement when measured by such indicators as species number and diversity.

In the best cases, degraded environments are almost fully restored to their natural state (e.g. depleted cultivated or over-grazed farmland restored to its natural state as part of, say, a game-farm development).

In other cases, severely degraded land that supports little biodiversity is changed to a use that improves biodiversity (e.g. strip-mined area converted into a golf course).

However, despite these positive contributions to the environment, these developments do not balance the negative impacts and, hence, “death by a thousand cuts” continues, albeit at a marginally slower rate.


Re-establishing the environment-development balance –

It seems theoretically possible that if land use changes with negative environmental impacts were balanced with land use changes with positive environment impacts then “death by a thousand cuts” could be significantly slowed.

Indeed, it could be argued that if a slight bias was given to the land use changes with positive environment impacts (i.e. the balance is slightly skewed in favour of positive environmental outcomes), then “death by a thousand cuts” could be slowly reversed.


Environmental Offsets – For the purposes of this

presentation the following definition is used –

“An environmental offset is an intervention, or

interventions, specifically implemented to

counterbalance an adverse environmental impact of

land-use change, resource use, discharge, emission or

other activity at one location that is implemented at

another location to deliver a net environmental benefit”.


There may be, at least, four specific types of

environmental offsets that may be identified by, for

example, their spatial application –

Carbon offsets;

Biodiversity offsets;

Air Quality offsets; and

Water Quality offsets.

Each of these four specific types of environmental

offsets are at different stages of development


Current thinking –

Ambivalence associated with discussion around

offsets that may be associated with concerns

around offsetting being perceived as “green wash”

in some quarters.

The concept is being rolled out in quite a

conservative fashion.

For example, biodiversity offsetting is considered an

“intervention of last resort” rather than a proactive

sustainable development tool.


Environmental offsets theoretically hold great

promise in terms of all three pillars of sustainable

development –

Environment – net improvements in

environmental quality;

Society – net improvements in air and water

quality, improved quality of life, etc.

Economy – new job creation opportunities,

improved land productivity, etc.


Environmental offsets may provide a new and novel

alternative solution to long-standing problems of,

among others –

Un-rehabilitated derelict and ownerless mines;

Increased funding for public works programmes like the

“Working For…” programmes;

Grand-fathering – addressing the resistance for operators

of old technologies to meet tighter environmental

management conditions;

The generation of many decent jobs for unskilled and

semi-skilled people.


There appears to be an increasing urgency associated

with a more rigorous regulatory approach to offsetting.

For example –

Carbon offsetting is specifically mentioned in National

Treasury’s recent work around carbon taxes; and

Environmental offsetting is specifically mentioned in the

National Development Plan published a few weeks ago.

Apart from the relative complexity of the CDM and

relative simplicity of the biodiversity “like-for-like”

offsetting approach, “offset accounting” appears to be

the biggest challenge to the broader effective rollout of

environmental offsets.

Offset

accounting will

be based on

MRV

IN CONCLUSION…

It appears clear that there is a bright and

extremely exciting future for MRV in the context

of sustainable development in general and

environmental management in particular.

THANK YOU FOR YOUR KIND ATTENTION

reliable measurement as a key to sustainable ......reliable measurement as a key to sustainable...

Documents