religare morning digest - · pdf file*please note - stoploss is on ... housing development...
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Religare Morning Digest
August 22, 2016
Nifty Outlook
Nifty traded dull on Friday and ended almost unchanged, in line with its prevailing consolidation phase. Lack of any fresh trigger capped movement in index; however, activities in broader market kept the traders busy. Again, it was banking pack which gained traction for second day in a row while other sectoral indices traded mixed.
It’s almost a month that Nifty is hovering in a range while holding around its immediate high i.e. 8700. But, its divergence with banking index is raising concern now and any fall below 8600 could trigger profit taking in the expiry week. So, we reiterate our view to maintain positive yet cautious stance at current level and keep a check on number of trading positions.
VWAP (Expiry till date) Max OI (Call) Max OI (Put)
NIFTY 8655 8800 8500
Sectors to watch
Sector Name Outlook
FMCG STABLE
BANKS STABLE
PHARMA STABLE
News Religare Super Ideas**
FII & DII Cash Segment (Rs. in Cr.) Trade Stats
Category Amt. MTD YTD
FII 162 7325 34045
DII -14 -4968 -8113
NO OF CON-
TRACTS
TURNOVER IN CR
IDXFUTS 179434 12525
IDXOPT 3130838 213810
STKFUTS 617509 43731
Sun TV Network Limited reported a 19% increase in Net profit to Rs. 233 Cr for Q1 as against Rs. 195.8 Cr for the same period last quarter. The Total Income from Operations increased by 10.3% to Rs. 760.8 Cr as compared to Rs. 689.4 Cr previously.
NHPC successfully commissioned the 4th unit of the Teesta Low Dam Hydro-Electricity Project. The electricity generated will be allocated fully to the state of West Bengal and shall be supplied through West Bengal State Electricity Distribution Company (WBSEDCL).
Dilip Buildcon bagged a Rs. 2,016 Cr project from the National Highway Authority of India (NHAI) for a four-lane highway between Lucknow and Sultanpur under the National Highways Development Project (NHDP).
Derivative Ideas **
Instrument B/S Lot INITIATION
RANGE SL TARGET
HINDPETRO BUY 700 1230-1235 1210 1285
*FII & DII data as on 18th August 2016
Scrip Buy/Sell CMP Initiation
Range SL* Target
HDFC BUY 1369.40 1360-1370 1320 1475
LUPIN SELL SEP
FUT 1584.85 1580-1590 1625 1485
**Please note that the given technical and derivative recommendations are
"valid for taking position" only on recommended date and in the given range.
*Please note - Stoploss is on closing basis for delivery recommendation and
intraday basis for futures recommendation.
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Religare Morning Digest
August 22, 2016
Religare Super Ideas
Investment Pick - Garware Wall Ropes Limited
Garware Wall Ropes Ltd manufactures various range of products like ropes, nets and aquaculture cages for capturing and breeding fish; nets for sports such as tennis, cricket; insect, shade nets for agriculture; ropes and safety nets for shipping and industrial; coated fabrics for covers, tents, etc and provides geosynthetic solutions for water & waste management and erosion-control applications.
Key Rationales: i) Diversified product offerings with strong presence across verticals and geographies, ii) constant focus on product innovations, iii) immense growth opportunity in the recently forayed defence sector, iv) Revenue growth to improve over FY16-18E, v) Margins to improve with higher contribution from exports; vi) Healthy cash flows, low leverage and improving return ratios.
Scrip CMP Target Duration Recommendation Price
GARWALLROP 514.65 560 9-12 Months 419
HINDPETRO added 2.2% of open interest as long
buildup. Daily vwap is around 1233 levels. On charts,
it has breached past Six days congestion zone on
the higher side and also trading above important
long term as well as short term moving averages on
charts. We expect it to rally till 1285 levels in short
term.
Strategy:- BUY HINDPETRO AUGUST FUTS
BETWEEN 1230-1235, SL 1210, TARGET 1285.
Derivative Ideas
Housing Development Finance Corporation
Limited (HDFC)
Lupin Limited (LUPIN)
Post breakout from declining channel formation on
weekly chart, HDFC is firmly consolidating at higher
levels. Good amount of volume has also come in
past couple of sessions, this indicates buyer’s
interest at current levels. Hence, it is wise to buy in
mentioned range.
LUPIN failed to sustain above its important long
and short-term averages (200/100/50 EMA) on
daily chart and steep sell-off was witnessed
thereafter. At current juncture, it has formed fresh
selling pivot; hence, decline is more likely in coming
sessions.
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Religare Morning Digest
August 22, 2016
Result Calendar— August 2016
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
21 22
ALLCARGO LOGISTICS LTD.
HIMACHAL FUTURISTIC COMMUNICATIONS LTD.
HINDUSTAN COPPER LTD.
HINDUSTAN PETROLEUM CORPORATION LTD.
JINDAL PHOTO LTD.
Jindal Poly Investment and Finance Company Ltd
NTPC LTD.
SHREE RENUKA SUGARS LTD.
SPML Infra Limited
23
GILLETTE INDIA LTD.
HATHWAY BHAWANI CABLETEL & DATACOM LTD.
INDO COUNT INDUSTRIES LTD.
JAI CORP LTD.
NECTAR LIFESCIENCES LTD.
TATA POWER CO.LTD.
24
Infinite Computer Solutions (India) Ltd
MAN INFRACONSTRUCTION LTD.
NAVA BHARAT VENTURES LTD.
S.P. Apparels Ltd
25
GAMMON INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS LTD.
JOLLY MERCHANDISE LTD.
JYOTI STRUCTURES LTD.
Polymac Thermoformers Ltd
Sang Froid Labs (India) Ltd
26
ABBOTT INDIA LTD.
FINOLEX INDUSTRIES LTD.
J.B.CHEMICALS & PHARMACEUTICALS LTD.
JBF INDUSTRIES LTD.
PROCTER & GAMBLE HYGIENE & HEALTH CARE LTD.
SHILPA MEDICARE LTD.
TRIVENI ENGINEERING & INDUSTRIES LTD.
27
INDIA NIPPON ELECTRICALS LTD.
INDO RAMA SYNTHETICS (INDIA) LTD.
RATNAMANI METALS & TUBES LTD.-$
SAMTEX FASHIONS LTD.-$
TRANS FINANCIAL RE-SOURCES LTD.
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Religare Morning Digest
August 22, 2016
Corporate Action Calendar— August 2016 (Cash Dividend)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
21 22
Joonktollee Tea & Industries Ltd
Gloster Ltd
HB Portfolio Ltd
Rural Electrification Corp Ltd
Rural Electrification Corp Ltd
Sundaram Multi Pap Ltd
Shree Cement Ltd
Manappuram Finance Ltd
23
I G Petrochemicals Ltd
TV Today Network Ltd
Goodyear India Ltd
Jaysynth Dyestuff India Ltd
Competent Automobiles Co Ltd
Mack Trading Co Ltd
Granules India Ltd
Balrampur Chini Mills Ltd
24
Pidilite Industries Ltd
Kanoria Chemicals & Industries Ltd
Jubilant Foodworks Ltd
Jubilant Foodworks Ltd
Thomas Cook India Ltd
Fomento Resorts & Hotels Ltd
25
International Travel House Ltd
Jay Bharat Maruti Ltd
Ushdev International Ltd
Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers & Chemicals Ltd
JK Tyre & Industries Ltd
Vimta Labs Ltd
Creative Castings Ltd
Sterlite Technologies Ltd
Shri Dinesh Mills Ltd
26
Finolex Cables Ltd
27
Corporate Action Calendar— August 2016 (Stock Split)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
21 22 23 24
Pil Italica Lifestyle Ltd
25 26
27
Corporate Action Calendar— August 2016 ( Stock Buyback & Stock Dividend )
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
21 22 23 24
Novartis India Ltd
25 26
Power Finance Corp Ltd
27
Corporate Action Calendar— August 2016 (Acquisition)
Date Target Company Acquirer Company
8/25/2016 Crompton Greaves Consumer Electricals Ltd Multiple acquirers
Economic Calendar — August 2016
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
21 22 23 24 25 26
Eight Infrastructure Industries
27
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Religare Morning Digest
August 22, 2016
Market Snapshot
Sectoral Indices Performance
Index Closing % Change % MTD % YTD
NIFTY Auto 9,679 0.33% 2.2% 17.2%
NIFTY Bank 19,353 1.64% 2.1% 14.4%
NIFTY Energy 9,508 1.28% 2.1% 10.8%
Nifty Financial Services 7,947 1.18% 1.4% 12.6%
NIFTY FMCG 22,262 -0.36% 0.1% 10.2%
NIFTY IT 10,784 -0.23% -1.2% -3.8%
NIFTY Media 2,841 1.05% 0.9% 7.9%
NIFTY Metal 2,595 -0.18% 7.1% 42.1%
NIFTY Pharma 11,565 0.60% -1.1% -3.3%
NIFTY PSU Bank 3,029 1.10% 5.8% 5.7%
NIFTY Realty 211 1.27% 1.9% 22.5%
Top Gainers - Nifty
Stock CMP (INR) % Chg % MTD % YTD
BANKBARODA 161.65 4.63% 6.6% 3.2%
SBIN 258.50 4.07% 12.7% 15.2%
HINDALCO 158.95 2.98% 19.0% 87.6%
AMBUJACEM 276.45 1.60% 1.9% 36.1%
AUROPHARMA 765.05 1.51% -3.3% -12.7%
Top Losers - Nifty
Stock CMP (INR) % Chg % MTD % YTD
EICHERMOT 21,777.30 -1.79% -3.0% 29.2%
INFRATEL 342.35 -1.58% -13.4% -20.0%
COALINDIA 334.15 -1.45% 1.9% 1.3%
TCS 2,603.50 -1.33% -0.6% 6.8%
WIPRO 520.10 -0.95% -4.6% -7.1%
Bulk Deals - NSE
Security Name Client Name Buy/Sell Quantity Price Value (in Cr.)
The India Cements Limited ALPHAGREP SECURITIES PRIVATE LIMITED SELL 1841235 127.3 23.44
The India Cements Limited ALPHAGREP SECURITIES PRIVATE LIMITED BUY 1841235 127.14 23.41
Welspun Corp Limited MGN AGRO PROPERTIES PRIVATE LIMITED BUY 1665087 86.3 14.37
Upper Ganges Sug & Ind N.K. SECURITIES SELL 136275 349.59 4.76
Upper Ganges Sug & Ind N.K. SECURITIES BUY 136154 349.36 4.76
Upper Ganges Sug & Ind AJAY ASSET MANAGEMENT PRIVATE LIM- BUY 92876 358.9 3.33
Upper Ganges Sug & Ind AJAY ASSET MANAGEMENT PRIVATE LIM- SELL 92147 360.02 3.32
Bhageria Industries Ltd N.K. SECURITIES SELL 57470 347.57 2.00
Bhageria Industries Ltd N.K. SECURITIES BUY 57470 347.18 2.00
Sunil Hitech Engr Ltd ASHROJ CREDIT INDIA PRIVATE LIMITED BUY 103672 185.66 1.92
Delivery Spurt stocks
Stock Name Day's del. Vol. Del. Vol. Price
Shrenuj & Co. 1,490,682 15957% 2.27%
S B T 388,143 1598% 5.54%
Phoenix Mills 864,459 1202% -2.59%
Mandhana Indus 221,960 1014% -1.36%
Nava Bharat 194,320 1010% 0.95%
St Bk of Bikaner 247,249 953% 1.69%
Fortis Health. 3,439,403 882% -2.97%
MBL Infrast 235,292 854% -3.49%
Mercator 2,974,892 850% 6.18%
S A I L 13,902,177 795% 3.23%
*Bulk deals data as on August 18, 2016
*Sectoral Indices data as on August 18, 2016
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Religare Morning Digest
August 22, 2016
Current Portfolio and Performance Summary as on 19th August’16
Stock Sector Entry Date Weight Reco price (`) CMP (`)
Bajaj Corp Consumer Goods May 13, 2016 9.4% 393 404
Reliance Industries Energy May 27, 2016 9.6% 970 1,015
Vinati Organics Chemicals June 28, 2016 9.6% 544 561
Magma Fincorp Financial Services June 30, 2016 8.9% 109 103
Sun Pharmaceutical
Industries Pharma July 15, 2016 9.7% 771 784
Apollo Hospitals
Enterprises Healthcare Services July 29, 2016 10.3% 1,362 1,393
Emami Consumer Goods August 3, 2016 10.3% 1,151 1,182
Castrol India Energy August 5, 2016 9.6% 425 406
Indiabulls Housing
Finance Financial Services August 8, 2016 9.9% 808 800
Cash 12.6%
Total Total 100%
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Religare Morning Digest
August 22, 2016
Historical Performance as on 19th August’16
Performance Matrix 1-Month 3-Month 6-Month 1-Year Since Inception
Religare Alpha 4.35% 10.73% 22.59% 4.97% 27.10%
Nifty 1.62% 11.35% 20.19% 3.51% 9.93%
Outperformance 2.73% -0.62% 2.40% 1.46% 17.18%
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Religare Morning Digest
August 22, 2016
Research Product Basket
For cash market trading
Call / Product Call Frequency No. of calls Avg open call duration % funds allocated
Intraday Calls Intraday 2 - 3 < 1 day 25%
Live / RMD Calls Daily 3 - 4 3 - 4 days 30%
Master Pick Weekly 1 1 month 15%
Religare Alpha Opportunity NA 2 - 3 months 20%
Cash NA 10%
For 1L margin*
Total Per Call
25,000 8,000
30,000 4,000
15,000 5,000
20,000 As per weightage
10,000
Intraday Calls These calls are flashed live on Ms Lync and ODIN with the purpose of squaring off positions on the same day. As a policy, we restrict our
intraday cash market calls to less than 4 calls a day. Hence, funds should be allocated accordingly to have provision to trade in all calls.
Live / RMD Calls 2 super ideas are flashed in RMD daily with a view of 3-4 days. Additionally as per market opportunity, we flash live calls during the day
(including BTST calls). 3-4 such calls are made on a daily basis which might be open for 3-4 days. Funds should be allocated keeping in mind that
there will be 7-8 such open calls daily.
Master Pick This is our weekly recommendation shortlisted on the basis of techno-funda analysis. 15% of funds is recommended to be allocated for Master
Pick considering that there will be 3 open calls. The average open duration for this call will be 1 month.
Religare Alpha This is a portfolio of 8-10 stocks which are held with a view of 2-3 months. It is recommended to allocate 20% of funds for building this portfolio
which will provide stability to the overall trading portfolio.
Cash 10% surplus cash in the portfolio should be kept for the purposes of allocating it to opportunities as and when they arrive.
For derivative market trading
Call / Product Call Frequency No. of calls Avg open call duration % funds allocated
Derivative Ideas Daily 1 - 2 1 - 3 days 40%
Live calls Intraday / Daily 1 - 2 3 - 4 days 50%
Cash NA 10%
For 1L margin*
Total Per Call
40,000 40,000
50,000 50,000
10,000
Derivative Ideas 1 derivative idea is shared in RMD daily. It can be a plain vanilla F&O buy/sell call or an option strategy. Funds should be allocated assuming 2
such calls will be open at any time. These calls are open for 3-4 days on an average.
Live Calls These calls are flashed on MS Lync and ODIN during live market hours. These calls can be intraday or with a view of 2-3 days. Funds should be
allocated considering 2 such calls will be open at any time. 3/4 times, these calls will be on Nifty / Bank Nifty only.
Cash It is recommended to hold 10% cash to capitalize on any opportunity that may arise in markets.
For every client, the advisor must allocate a specific proportion of funds for trading and investing depending on the risk taking ability and willingness of the client
and their investment goals.
The below mentioned product basket tries to address the way to deal with the trading portfolio (cash/derivative) for optimum effectiveness of research calls.
It is recommended to divide your trading funds for various types of calls and not invest the entire amount for 1 or 2 calls only.
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Religare Morning Digest
August 22, 2016
Hitesh Agrawal [email protected]
Ajay Pasari, CFA [email protected]
Ajit Mishra [email protected]
Archana Gude [email protected]
Gaurav Sharma [email protected]
Swati Saxena [email protected]
Manoj M Vayalar [email protected]
Mehernosh Khurshed Panthaki [email protected]
Vipin Kumar [email protected]
Team Members
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Religare Morning Digest
August 22, 2016
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No
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No
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