renewable energy for europe - research in action pv solar electricity in europe – competing with...

RENEWABLE ENERGY FOR EUROPE - RESEARCH IN ACTION

PV solar electricity in Europe – competing with Japan, USA and SEA

(China, Taiwan, Korea, India, etc.)

Dr. Winfried HoffmannSCHOTT Solar GmbH, Management Board

Member of the Board of the German Solar Industry Association (BSi),the European PV Industry Association (EPIA) and

the Scientific Boards of FhG-ISE and ISFH


Ingredients for successful competition within a given world economy region ($, €, ¥)

Big local market size strong local industrial production

$€ ¥

2


the creation of a strong local industry production

employment (primary and secondary)

taxes

the creation of a corresponding big local market

market support programs

boundary conditions for "free" markets

Development of a new future industry needs

3


Global competitiveness

strong R&D

quick transfer via piloting into production

Economy of scale

purchase (@2/3 material cost !)

cost learning curve for individual companies

For an individual company and a giventechnology it is important:

4


Historical PV market growth by regions

Europe well positioned !

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Mar

ket

gro

wth

in

MW

p

JAP DEU USA ROW


What are the markets to be served?

ConsumerOff-Grid Industrial

On-Grid

Economically viable

Dependant on market support

programs

Off-Grid Residential

Source: Strategies Unlimited

6


Competitiveness between electricitygenerating cost for PV and utility prices

Source: RWE Energie AG and RSS GmbH

Photovoltaics

Utility peak power

Bulk power

0,0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1,0

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

€/kWh

900 h/a: 0,60 €/kWh

1800 h/a: 0,30 €/kWh

market support programs necessary:

7

Europe well in balance with other regions !


Cost and price decrease for technology driven PV solar electricity systems (… -5% (+) p.a.)

experience curves and technology roadmap

Cost and price increase for conventional electricity (… +1% … 3% (+) p.a.)

fuel price increase

internalization of external cost (CO2, … )

price differentiation of peak and bulk electricity in truly liberalized markets

Degree of correlation between times of peak power demand (high price) and delivery of PV produced electricity

Point of time for competitiveness of grid-connected PV solar electricity without support

8

Europe together in the same boat with otherregions!


Market data Europe including the 100000 rooftop program / feed-in tariff (EEG) in Germany

Source: IEA PVPS

9

Yea

rly

inst

alle

d M

Wp

100000 roof-top program

KfW

EEG

EEG PVamendment


European Market Support Programs

plannedGreece

100 / 3002044 - 49Italy

I, Tlifetime28 – 51Portugal

Cap[MW]

Duration[a]

Tariff[€ct/kWh]

complicated-2015 – 30France

I, T3002522 – 40Spain

-2048 – 62 Germany

other support programs(I: Investment subsidy T: Tax reduction)

Feed-in law

Country

10

Good progress in Europe for market acceleration !


Comparison of the future market development in Europe and Japan

Yearly installations mainly Germany

Cumulative installations mainlyGermany

Yearly installations Japan

Cumulative installationsJapan

Additional EU-installations e.g. EU-wide feed-in tariff program (not contained in accumulated curve)

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

cum

ula

ted

in

stal

lati

on

s in

MW

p

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

Yea

rly

inst

all

atio

ns

in M

Wp

must b

e revised

toward

s 5 GW

cumulativ

e

and 1300 MW

in 2010

in E

urope !

11


Market-Pull in Japan for PV Solar Electricity

Disadvantage of strong € !

Comparison between produced and installed PV systems in Japan

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

PV

Sys

tem

s in

MW

p

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Cu

rren

cy

Exc

han

ge

in

Eu

ro/Y

en

Produced PV Systems

Installed PV Systems

Currency Exchange


Worldwide free trade not enhanced by WTO mechanisms

Macroeconomic parameters as differences in interest rates and changing currency exchange ratio (US Dollar, Yen, Euro) prevent or accelerate import and exports between regions

Need for boundary conditions (as discussed within the scientific economic field e.g. R. Mundell) between the regions; otherwise: return on investment calculations become obsolete and a whole industry, mainly in high investment production, may suffer.

Support ProgramsBoundary conditions for €-, $- and ¥- currency regions

13

Strong € gives disadvantages compared toproducts from the ¥- and $-regions !


0,1

1

10

100

1000

2000 2010 2020 2030

inst

alle

d G

Wp

per

yea

r

1

10

100

1000

10000

PV

mo

du

le m

arke

t vo

lum

e in

bn

$ p

er

year

($ =

€ a

ssum

ed)

+ 25 % p.a.

+ 17 % p.a.

2004

Specific investment for Production equipment [€/W]

1,5 ... 2 1 ... 1,5 0,7 ... 1

Investments per year [bn€]

0,5 ... 1

2 ... 6

10 ... 30

Future Growth of the Global PV Solar Electricity Market in GW and bn $ Turnover

14


Price Experience Curve for PV Solar Modules

History

Forecast

15

Individual companies: Watch out for corresponding production cost decrease with appropriate economy of scale !

0

1

10

1 10 100 1000 10000

GWp accumulated

$/W

p m

od

ule

pri

ce

1 GWp/a2004

3,5 GWp/a2010

35 GWp/a2020

330 GWp/a2030

experience factor15%

18%

1

10

100

1 10 100 1000 10000

MWp accumulated

$/W

p m

od

ule

pri

ce

20% price decrease by doubling cumulative

volume


Is there a necessity for 2nd and 3rd generation

technologies to replace c-Si wafer technology for

module production cost below 1 €/W ?

No, but utilize new features of thin film and new

concept cells to serve additional customer needs!

Technology Evolution

16


Customer needs

17

€/kWh W/m² €/Wp g/Wp

Source: Fraunhofer ISE

€/m² aesthetics flexibility W/mm²


The four main technology routes

18

Crystalline Silicon(wafer based)

New ConceptsIII – V compounds

(GaGs)

Thin Film


Technology evolution1) No 1€/W limit for c-Si modules

thin-film (e.g. a-Si, CIS)

multicryst./Cz-wafer

c-Si ribbon (e.g. EFG)

Module full production cost [€/W]

update

(2002)

( < 0,7 ) 0,7

0,8 / 1,00,9 / 1,1

0,60,7

MUSIC-FM

APAS-RENA

(1997)

19


a) low cost (price) per m² (BIPV) at lower eta (4-6%)

deposition area: 0,6 → 1,4 → 3 → 5 → 10 m²

utilize technology development in TFT technology (e.g. ASI)

creation of semitransparency by thin-layers

b) low cost (price) per Wp

ASI/µc-Si and II – VI compound (CIS, CTS)

efficiency from 8 – 10 % today up to 10 – 15 % in 2010

and

14 – 18 % in 2030

Technology evolution2) thin film technologies have

20


21

TFT Display Technology Development

0

1

2

3

4

5

1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

G1G3+G3

G2

G6

G5+

G7

G5

G4

Are

a [m

²]

Year

Watch out for SEA and Japan !

in 2005 more than500 production / R&D machines


true colours with dyes for new applications

low material cost concepts

general improvement for all sunlight converting

devices

Technology evolution3) dye cells / organic materials / high efficiency concepts

22


Technology evolutionProduction of solar modules using different technologies

c-Sithin film"New Concepts"

0

500

1000

15002000

2500

3000

3500

0

20

40

6080

100

120

140

2002 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

MW GW30%p.a. 25%p.a.

23


Support programsA stable and growing R & D policy in the short, medium and long-term

From a yearly R&D budget around 80 millions € (2003) to 250 millions € in the near future.

Total PV R&D budget 100 %

Industrial(e.g. 40%)

Applied(e.g. 40%)

Basic(e.g. 20%)

Most (e.g. 70 %)

30 % 10 %

Small(e.g. 20 %)

Little(e.g. 10 %)

24

To stay competitive Europe has to increaseR&D budget !


0

1

Development prediction of worldwide electricity capacity in relation to PV solar electricity contribution

10

100

1.000

10.000

2000 2010 2020 2030

GW

100 %

10 %

1 %

PV1

100

1,000

10

10,000

worldwide electricity generating capacity

2030202020102000Year

3.5

35

350

3,500

35,000

TW

h /

@ 3

.500

h l

oad

fac

tor

+30%p.a. +25%p.a.

25


Transformation of Global EnergySystems, an Exemplary Path

2000 2020 2040

200

600

1000

1400

Year2100

yearly Energy consumtion [EJ/a]

OilCoalGas

NuclearHydro Biomass (traditional)Biomass (modern)

Solar electricity (PV and solarthermal power stations)

Solarthermal (only thermal)

other RenewablesGeothermal

Wind

26

European industry to participate in this excitingfuture and big business area of PV solarelectricity !

Source: Scientific Board "Global Change of Environment" to theGerman Government (2003)


Back up


Technology evolutionEPIA Roadmap - c-Si technology

ribbon [ct/W]

wire saw [ctW] 51122Si cost

19-2217-2014-17cell eff. [%]

long term stable, low cost/m² technologymodule

2,5715Si cost

100

150

200

200

300

250

wafer [µm]

kerf loss [µm]

202530feedstock [€/kg]

202020102000

In the long run integrated manufacturing of thin wafers (100 µm or less) and subsequent cell and laminate making is probably the most effective route.

28

RENEWABLE ENERGY FOR EUROPE - RESEARCH IN ACTIONYear

Increase for productivity related parameters for three Si wafer technologies

diameter [mm] for Cz-mono Si ingots diameter [mm] for EFG ribbon Si tubes

weight [kg] for mc Si ingots

dia

met

er o

f C

z-S

i in

go

ts a

nd

EF

G t

ub

es [

mm

]

wei

gh

t o

f m

c in

go

ts [

kg]

29

Zunahme der Abmessungen für verschiedene

kristalline Si-Substrat-Technologien

10

100

1000

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010Jahre

10

100

1000

Cz-Si Substrat-Durchmesser [mm]

EFG-Röhren Durchmesser [mm]

Masse multikritalliner Si-Blöcke [kg]

Logarithmisch (Masse multikritalliner

Si-Blöcke [kg])Logarithmisch (Cz-Si Substrat-

Durchmesser [mm])Logarithmisch (EFG-Röhren

Durchmesser [mm])


ROHSCd !CdTe/CdS

field tests underwayno experienceCIS

field tests underwayno experienceµmorph Si

SW well under control !low efficiency and

critical stability (SW)amorphous Si

Current status"Public perception"Technology

30


31


32


Technology evolution

50

100

33

0 5 10 15 20 250

1

2

3

0 5 10 15 20 250

1

2

3

2020+

2010+

Module Efficiency [%]

2000+c-Si

TF

a-Si-pin/pin

a-Si/µc-Si

II-VI

dye a-Si-pinII-VI

r

r

mc

mc

Cz

Cz


National R&D budgets for PVfrom 1998 to 2004

Source: Trends in Photovoltaic Applications, PVPS, Sept. 1999 to 2005

MUSD/Year 1 EU includes AUT, DEU, DNK, FRA, GBR, ITA, NLD, PRT, SWE

2 EU plus NOR and CHE

34

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

EU¹ (R&D) Europe² (R&D) DEU (R&D) JPN/METI (R&D) USA (R&D)


[%]

1 marine

2 geothermal

3 biomass

4 hydro

5 wind

6 solar thermal

7 PV solar

electricity

Source: Own estimates together with data from EREC /11/ and WBGU /12/

Contribution of PV solar electricity to global electricity production in 2040

36,000 TWh

2001

… 2040

ww electricity

35

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

renewable energy for europe - research in action pv solar electricity in europe – competing with...

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