renewable energy in ireland 2013
TRANSCRIPT
Renewable Energy in Ireland
2013
Overview
• Context
• Renewable Electricity
• Renewable Transport
• Renewable Heat
• Overall Renewables
• Avoided Fossil Fuels and Carbon Emissions
• Conclusions
Policy Context
• Kyoto Protocol
• EU Emissions Trading Scheme
• EU Non-ETS Targets (2009/406/EC)
• Renewable Energy Directive (2009/28/EC)
Policy Context
• National Renewable Energy Action Plan
• Renewable Energy Feed-In Tariff
• Biofuels Obligation Scheme
• Building Regulations Part L
• Offshore Renewable Energy Development Plan
• Bioenergy Plan
• Geothermal Energy Development Bill
• Electric Vehicle Incentives
Energy Markets
• Energy use can be characterized by mode of application
• Electricity Generation (RES-E)
• Transport (RES-T)
• Heating (of spaces or for process) (RES-H)
Renewable Energy Targets for 2020
• All Renewables: EU target for Ireland of 16%
• RES-T: EU target of 10%
• RES-E: Government target of 40%
• RES-H: Government target of 12%
Renewable Electricity (RES-E)
Electricity Generation Fuel Inputs
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Mto
e
Coal Peat Oil Natural Gas Renewables NR Wastes Net Imports
13%
Gross Electricity Consumption by Fuel
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
TWh
Coal Peat Oil Natural Gas Renewables NR Wastes Net Imports
20%
Gross Electricity Generation
Wind Installed Capacity
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Tota
l Win
d Ca
paci
ty (M
We)
Ann
ual W
ind
Capa
city
Gro
wth
(MW
e)
Annual Wind Growth Total Wind Installed Capacity
Wind Energy Contribution
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
GW
h
Capa
city
Fac
tor
Annual capacity factor 5 year average capacity factorElectricity from wind Normalised electricity from wind
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
22%
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
% o
f Gro
ss E
lect
rici
ty C
onsu
mpt
ion
Hydro (normalised) Wind (normalised) Landfill Gas Biogas Biomass
Renewable Contribution to Gross Final ElectricityRES-E (2013) 20.1%
Normalised 20.9%
Estimated €300 million in imported fuel savings;Of which €240 million due to wind
Progress Towards RES-E Targets
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
RES-E 2020 Government Target (40%) 2010 Government Target (15%)
Renewable Transport (RES-T)
Biofuels Obligation Scheme
• 6% by volume of road transport fuel must be biofuel
– ~ 4.0% in energy terms for biogasoline/petrol
– ~ 5.7% in energy terms for biodiesel/diesel
• 4% from July 2010 to Dec 2012
• Advanced biofuels and biofuels from wastes have a
weighting factor of 2
Biofuels Obligation Scheme
• From July 2012 biofuel must satisfy sustainability
criteria
• minimum GHG saving of 35%
• This will increase to 50% in 2017 and 60% in 2018
• NORA estimates average 76% GHG saving achieved
for biofuels sold in Ireland in 2013
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
8020
07
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Biodiesel Bioethanol / Biogasoline Pure Plant Oil
ktoe
Imports Indigenous Production Primary Energy Supply
Biofuel Production and Imports
~70% Biodiesel
~30% Biogasoline
~ 100% of which double certified
~ 0% of which double certified
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Biofuels Share Weighted Biofuels Share
Transport Renewable Energy4.8%
2.8%
Progress Towards RES-T Targets
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Biofuels Share Weighted Biofuels Share EU 2020 target (10%)National 2010 target (3%) EU 2008 target (2%)
Renewable Heat (RES-H)
Renewable Heat
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Biomass Biogas Solar Geothermal
Renewable Heat
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
RES-H 2020 Government Target (12%) 2010 Government Target (5%)
Overall Renewables
Context for Renewable Energy in 2013
RE = 6.8% of TPER
RES-E20.9%
RES-H5.7%
RES-T4.9%RE Directive
7.8% of GFC
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Rene
wab
le E
nerg
y Co
ntri
buti
on to
GFC
(kto
e)
Hydro (normalised) Wind (normalised) Landfill Gas BiogasBiomass Liquid Biofuels Geothermal Solar
Renewable Contribution to Gross Final Consumption (ktoe)
839 ktoe in 2013
Renewable Contribution to Gross Final Consumption (%)
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Rene
wab
le E
nerg
y Co
ntri
buti
on to
GFC
(%)
Hydro (normalised) Wind (normalised) Landfill Gas BiogasBiomass Liquid Biofuels Geothermal Solar
7.8% in 2013
Renewable Contribution to GFC by Mode
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Rene
wab
le C
ontr
ibut
ion
to G
FC %
RES-H RES-T RES-E% Normalised
4.5%
0.9%
2.3%
Renewable Energy Progress to Targets
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Overall Renewables 2020 EU Target
Displacement of Fossil Fuels and Associated CO2 Emissions
Fossil Fuel Displacement
• Full Dispatch Model Approach
– Detailed, sophisticated approach
– Very data and labour intensive
– Comprehensively accounts for range of dynamic effects and interactions between renewables and fossil plant
– SEAI report “Quantifying Ireland’s Fuel and CO2emissions Savings from Renewable Electricity in 2012”
– Not practical to run on an annual basis
Fossil Fuel Displacement
• Primary Energy Equivalent Approach
– Simplified approach
– Not very data or labour intensive
– Useful & appropriate for investigating trends
– Used by SEAI for annual reports
Fossil Fuel Displacement
• Primary Energy Equivalent Approach
– Concerns regarding scale of dynamic effects alleviated as these have been shown to be small by Dispatch Model results ( increase of ~2% in overall carbon intensity of fossil generators)
– Conservative adjustment made to PEE results for 2011-2013 to account for these effects, based on results of the 2012 Dispatch Model
– PEE approach validated by 2012 Dispatch Model
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1990 2010 2012
Prim
ary
Ener
gy E
quiv
alen
t kto
e
Solid Biomass (H) Biogas (H) Geothermal (H) Solar Thermal (H)Liquid Biofuels (T) Landfill Gas (E) Hydro (E) Wind (E)Solid Biomass (E) Renewable Wastes (E)
Avoided Fossil Fuels from Renewable Energy
~ 1,303 ktoe in 2013 in total~ 963 ktoe in electricity generation~ 723 ktoe avoided by wind
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
1990 2010 2012
kt C
O2
Solid Biomass (H) Biogas (H) Geothermal (H) Solar Thermal (H)Liquid Biofuels (T) Landfill Gas (E) Hydro (E) Wind (E)Solid Biomass (E) Renewable Wastes (E)
Avoided CO2 from Renewable EnergyApproximately 2.9 Mt CO2 in 2013 in total
Approximately 2.4 Mt CO2 in electricity generationApproximately 1.7 Mt CO2 avoided by wind
The Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland is partly financed by Ireland’s EU Structural Funds Programme co-funded by the Irish Government and the European Union.
Thank you.
http://www.seai.ie/Publications/Statistics_Publications/EPSSU_Publications/