renewables in the mena region...price competition, long -term contracts, good resources and...
TRANSCRIPT
© OECD/IEA 2015 © OECD/IEA 2015
Renewables in the MENA region
Cédric Philibert Renewable Energy Division
International Energy Agency
Moroccan Pavillion at COP21 Le Bourget, 5 December 2015
© OECD/IEA 2015
The future arrives for Five Clean Energy Technologies. Changes since the time of COPenhagen are facilitating COP talks in Paris.
Innovation is driving costs down
Source: Ernest Moniz, US Secretary of Energy, IEA Ministerial, 18 November 2015
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Renewables set to account for almost two thirds of global net capacity growth over the medium-term, but in MENA they comprise less than 15%
Renewables to dominate new global generation capacity…but not in MENA
Net additions to power capacity 2014-20, world vs MENA region
Analysis from the IEA Medium-Term Renewable Energy Market Report 2015 and the New Policies Scenario of the World Energy Outlook 2015.
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World Middle East North Africa (MENA)
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Fossil fuels Nuclear Hydropower Non-hydro renewables
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Lowest wind and PV prices now found in MENA countries
Price competition, long-term contracts, good resources and financial de-risking measures create lower-cost deployment opportunities in newer markets
Long-term contract prices for new renewable power to be commissioned in 2016-2018
Utility-scale solar PV Onshore wind
Chile USD 65-70/MWh
Brazil USD 81/MWh
United States USD 65-70/MWh
India USD 88-116/MWh
United Arab Emirates USD 58/MWh
South Africa USD 65/MWh
United States USD 47/MWh
Brazil USD 49/MWh
South Africa USD 51/MWh Australia
USD 69/MWh
Turkey USD 73/MWh
China USD 80–91/MWh
Germany USD 67-100/MWh
Egypt USD 41-50/MWh
Jordan USD 61-77/MWh
Uruguay USD 90/MWh
Germany USD 96 /MWh
Canada USD 66/MWh
This map is without prejudice to the status or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area
© OECD/IEA 2015
Even with low oil and gas prices, renewables can be competitive
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USD/MWh
USD/MMBTU
LCOE New OCGT
LCOE New CCGT
Japan: avg contracted spot LNG, Jan 2015
USA: avg HH spot, Jan 2015
EU: avg NG import, Jan 2015
Japan: avg contracted spot LNG, Mar 2014
Range of solar PV costs from previous slide
Range of wind costs from previous slide
Weighted average annual renewable investment costs, historical and projected
Note: Based on EGC median case, LCOE for OCGT is calculated using a 15% capacity factor and 7% discount rate and LCOE for CCGT is calculated using a 65% capacity factor and 7% discount rate. No carbon pricing is included in LCOEs.
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Increasing momentum for solar and wind
Non-hydro renewables grow by almost half over 2014-20, driven by fast growing power demand, excellent resources, diversification needs and increasingly attractive
economics
MENA historical and forecasted non-hydropower capacity additions
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Bioenergy Onshore Wind Offshore Wind Solar PV STE
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But progress concentrated in a few key markets
Countries where meeting power demand relies on imported fuels have been the first-movers in creating a supportive enabling environment for renewables
Forecast additions (2014-20) versus growth under renewable power plans
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Egypt Morocco Jordan UAE* Algeria SaudiaArabia
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Plans Forecast (2020)*Combined estimate for Dubai and Abu Dhabi
80% of MENA non-hydro renewable growth
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MENA profiles yield different drivers
Drivers depend on expected demand growth, self sufficiency in meeting total energy demand, reliance on fossil fuels
Energy security very strong driver for RE in importing countries
100% 80%-90% Less than 80%
Power generation from oil & gas (%):
Bubble size: Electricity demand (TWh) 2012
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Solar PV annual capacity additions (GW)
MENA expected to emerge as one of the fastest growing PV markets
This map is without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area.
© OECD/IEA 2015
Flexibility of other power system components
Grids Generation
Storage Demand Side
System-friendly design
Variable RE will need more flexibility
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Solar thermal electricity: Morocco leads on the south shore
Noor 1 (160 MW) at Ouarzazate soon to be inaugurated. Noor II and Noor III (Tower) to follow
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Heat storage: CSP plants deliver electricity on demand
Built-in thermal storage allows to generate solar electricity when the sun sets and customers turn the lights on
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Solar heat takes off cautiously
Solar heat has great potential in the MENA region but deployment is still limited to a few countries
Solar water heaters in Israel
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Solar heat for industry is not a new concept
1907, Egypt (Shuman)
2014, Morocco (Italcementi)
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Solar ovens for artworks
Potteries from Safi (Morocco) cooked in the solar oven at Mont-Louis (French Pyrenees)
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Mirrah, 1 GWth under construction
Parabolic troughs protected from winds & dust in greenhouse (Glasspoint)
… for enhanced oil recovery operations
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RE Technology Collaboration Programmes
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IEA supports 10 Technology Collaboration Programmes dedicated to renewables and hydrogen,
and is ready to support new initiatives
Numbers of RE TCPs in
which countries take part*
*including 4 through sponsors
© OECD/IEA 2015
A decisive moment for the future of renewables
With enabling frameworks and excellent resources MENA countries have the potential to leapfrog to very affordable renewables – as Morocco demonstrates as with solar thermal and wind power.
But the low oil price environment can pose a risk to policy commitments, particularly in energy exporters
Overall, greater policy ambitions are needed to realise the region’s huge renewable potential
A more secure and sustainable energy system requires continued progress in phasing out fossil fuel subsidies and clear policies
Technology cooperation is key to promote innovation; the IEA stands ready to cooperate with MENA countries