report 13 – march 2018 peacebuilding and reconstruction polls · sondages sur la consolidation de...
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Peacebuilding and Reconstruction Polls (December 2017 data)
Patrick Vinck | Phuong Pham | Anupah Makoond
CONTENT p3. POVERTY: Dissatisfaction with access to
basic services and needs is growing and associated with the perception of government authorities.
p5. GOVERNANCE: Few people think that the
authorities (at all levels) represent the interests of the population.
p8. GOVERNANCE: Perceptions of government
efforts in key areas of peacebuilding and reconstruction are rarely positive and deteriorating.
p11. GOVERNANCE: The feeling of being able to
influence decisions and contribute to peace is frequent but unequal among women and men.
p13. KEY GLOBAL INDICATORS
Report 13 – March 2018
About the polls
This poll is the thirteenth in a series of quarterly polls conducted to provide reliable data and analysis on peace, security, justice and reconstruction in the Democratic
Republic of the Congo. The project is a joint initiative of the Harvard Humanitarian Initiative (HHI) and the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), in
collaboration with MONUSCO Civil Affairs. HHI is responsible for the data collection, the independent data analysis and report writing, in partnership with the
Université Libre des Pays des Grands Lacs, Université Catholique de Bukavu et Université de Bunia. Results for this poll are based on 5, 834 face‐to‐face interviews
conducted in December 2017 with randomly selected adults across eastern DRC. Additional interviews were conducted in six priority zones: 1 ‐ South Irumu
(n=435); 2 ‐ Kitchanga (n=791); 3 ‐ Ruzizi (n= 428); 4 ‐ Kalehe (n=420); 5 ‐ Mambasa (n=421); Beni (n=479)
North Kivu South Kivu Ituri
Territoire/Town Sample Territoire/Town Sample Territoire/Town Sample
Ville de Goma 221 Ville de Bukavu 300 Ville de Bunia 290 Ville de Beni 300 Fizi 216 Aru 218 Ville de Butembo 299 Idjwi 216 Djugu 216 Beni 215 Kabare 216 Irumu 220 Lubero 216 Kalehe 236 Mahagi 216 Masisi 217 Mwenga 216 Mambasa 216 Nyiragongo 220 Shabunda 216 Rutshuru 224 Ville d’Uvira 302 TOTAL 1,376
Walikale 196 Uvira 217 TOTAL 2,108 Walungu 215
TOTAL 2,350
TOTAL Eastern DRC 5,834 (Error margin of ± 5 percentage points at the 95% confidence level).
Publications:
Poll Report # 12 [Goma], November 2017 (Data from Oct 2017)
Poll Report # 11, [Security], September 2017 (Data from July 2017)
Poll Report # 10, June 2017 (Data from March April 2017)
Poll Report # 9, March 2017 (Data from Dec 2016)
Poll Report # 8, November 2016 (Data from Sept 2016)
Poll Report # 7, August 2016 (Data from June 2016)
Poll Report #6, June 2016 (Data from March 2016) Poll Report #5, January 2016 (Data from Dec 2015)
Poll Report #4, November 2015 (Data from Sept ‐ Oct 2015)
Poll Report #3, August 2015 (Data from June‐July 2015)
Poll Report #2, June 2015 (Data from March‐May 2015)
Poll Report #1, March 2015 (Data from Dec 2014)
Baseline, May 2014 (Data from Dec 2013)
For more information, visit www.peacebuildingdata.org/drc or contact [email protected]
In collaboration with
With support from
© Harvard Humanitarian Initiative, United Nations Development Program The information provided, and views expressed in this publication
do not necessarily reflect the views of the project partners
Sondages sur la Consolidation de la Paix et la Reconstruction dans l’Est de la RDC # 13 | Janvier 2018 3
POVERTY: Dissatisfaction with access to basic services and needs is growing and associated with the perception of government authorities.
The polls regularly collect data on respondents' satisfaction with basic services and needs ‐ access to health
care, school for children, water, food, land, opportunities to find work and housing. The results show a growing
dissatisfaction in all areas between December 2015 and December 2017, with a more significant decrease in
satisfaction in the year 2017. This decline coincides with a period of rapid inflation, linked to the depreciation
of the Congolese franc against the dollar. It is likely that reduced purchasing power contributed to the decline
in satisfaction with basic services and needs.
The downward trend is general in all provinces. However, the perception of access to basic services and needs
remains more positive in Ituri compared to the other provinces. Conversely, dissatisfaction is most common in
South Kivu. For example, 26% of respondents are satisfied with their access to health care in Ituri, compared to
20% in North Kivu and 7% in South Kivu. Regarding access to water, only 1% of respondents interviewed in
Shabunda and 4% in Fizi said they had good or very good access in the December 2017 survey. The average
percentage for South Kivu is 17% of people satisfied with their access to water, compared to 30% in North Kivu
and 38% in Ituri.
It is possible that dissatisfaction with basic services is associated with dissatisfaction with the representation of
public interest by government authorities at all levels. For example, among those who feel that their access to
water is very poor, only 19% are positive about the representation of their interests by provincial authorities.
This percentage is 32% among people who are very satisfied with their access to water. In terms of health care,
among those who think their access to health care is very poor, only 11% are positive about the representation
of their interests by provincial authorities, compared to 34% of those who judge their access to care health as
being very good.
Sondages sur la Consolidation de la Paix et la Reconstruction dans l’Est de la RDC # 13 | Janvier 2018 4
Figure: Access to services and basic needs
Dec. 2015 ‐ Dec 2017 (% good ‐ very good)
Access to
health care
Access to
school for
children
Access to
land
Access to
food
Access to
water
Housing
Opportunity
to find work
NK, 20%
SK, 7%
IT, 26%26% 27% 28%
24% 26% 26% 25%
Eastern DRC, 17%
NK, 14%SK, 8%
IT, 28%
23% 24% 26% 23% 26% 26% 26%Eastern DRC, 16%
NK, 16%SK, 24%
IT, 42%
33% 34% 34% 32% 32% 31% 31% Eastern DRC, 25%
NK, 18%
SK, 6%
IT, 29%29% 30%
26% 24% 25% 26% 25%
Eastern DRC, 17%
NK, 30%
SK, 17%
IT, 38%38% 41%
37%31% 32% 33% 34%
Eastern DRC, 28%
NK, 30%
SK, 14%
IT, 36%36% 38% 35%
29% 32% 34% 34%
Eastern DRC, 26%
NK, 6%SK, 1%
IT, 15%
9% 8% 7% 6% 8% 9% 9%Eastern DRC, 7%
Dec‐15 Mar‐16 Jun‐16 Sep‐16 Dec‐16 Mar‐17 Jul‐17 Dec‐17
Sondages sur la Consolidation de la Paix et la Reconstruction dans l’Est de la RDC # 13 | Janvier 2018 5
GOVERNANCE: Few people think that the authorities (at all levels)
represent the interests of the population.
Restoring a relationship of trust between the population and the governmental authorities that must serve
them is an essential component of peacebuilding. The polls conducted in the eastern part of the Democratic
Republic of Congo include questions to better understand how the population perceives these authorities.
Results of the December 2017 survey show that only one in four (27%) people in North and South Kivu and Ituri
consider local authorities ‐ village chiefs or neighborhood leaders ‐ to be good or very good at representing the
interests of the people. There are variations between provinces. The perception of the representation of the
interests of the population by local authorities is more frequently positive in Ituri (43%) than in North Kivu (21%)
and South Kivu (21%). At the level of the territories, it is in Butembo (8%) and in the territory of Idjwi (8%) that
the percentage is the lowest. It is much higher in Djugu in Ituri (63%), which probably reflects the individual
characteristics of the local authorities.
Figure: Perception of the representation of the interests of the population
by local authorities – chefs de quartiers / villages (% well ‐ very well)
Mambasa18%
Fizi25%
Walikale36%
Shabunda27%
Lubero18%
Beni18%
Aru44%
Djugu63%
Irumu34%
Mwenga31%
Kalehe27%
Masisi29%
Uvira10%
Mahagi26%
Rutshuru20%
Kabare20%
Walungu27%
Idjwi8%
Nyiragongo32%
Ville de Beni11%
Ville de Butembo8%
Ville de Bunia37%
Uvira Ville10%
Ville de Bukavu13%
Ville de Goma14%
IT – 43%
NK – 21%
SK – 21%
27%
Sondages sur la Consolidation de la Paix et la Reconstruction dans l’Est de la RDC # 13 | Janvier 2018 6
The percentage of respondents considering that local authorities represent the interests of the population well
or very well is low (27%) across the region. However, it is markedly higher than the percentage of respondents
who believe that territorial, provincial or national authorities represent the interests of the population well or
very well. In all three provinces, only 15% of those interviewed consider that the Territorial Administration or
the Mairie (in the city) represent the interests of the population well or very well. The percentage is 8% for the
provincial government and 7% for the central government. Part of this trend can be explained by the fact that
the higher hierarchical authorities are also more distant from the population. This can result in less visibility and
fewer interactions. Local authorities generally live among the population and have regular interactions. This is
not the case for the Mayor or the Territory Administrator, and even less so for the provincial and national
authorities. Provincial trends are the same as for local authorities, with a higher percentage of people in Ituri
judging positively the representation of their interests by all levels of authorities compared to the other
provinces.
Figure: Perception of the representation of the interests of the population
by territorial, provincial and national authorities (% well ‐ very well)
Eastern DRC
Territorial
administration /
Mayor office
Provincial
government
National
government
December 2017 data
A gender analysis shows that women consider that the authorities represent the interests of the population in
positive terms more often than men for all levels of authorities examined in the survey. For example, for all
three provinces, 31% of women feel that local authorities represent the interests of the population well or very
well, compared to only 23% of men. It is possible that these differences based on gender represent different
expectations between men and women regarding the actions of authorities.
15%NK13%
SK10%
IT26%
8%NK3%
SK1%
IT22%
7%NK4%
SK1%
IT19%
Sondages sur la Consolidation de la Paix et la Reconstruction dans l’Est de la RDC # 13 | Janvier 2018 7
Figure : Perception de la représentation des intérêts de la population
par les autorités (tous niveaux), par genre (% bien – très bien)
Local authorities – chefs de quartiers / villages Territorial administration / Mayor office
Women Men Women Men
Provincial government National government
Women Men Women Men
December 2017 data
31% 23% 17% 14%
10% 5% 9% 5%
Sondages sur la Consolidation de la Paix et la Reconstruction dans l’Est de la RDC # 13 | Janvier 2018 8
GOVERNANCE: Perceptions of government efforts in key areas of
peacebuilding and reconstruction are rarely positive and
deteriorating.
Depuis Mars 2016, les sondages incluent des questions demandant aux répondants d’évaluer la performance
du gouvernement national dans plusieurs domaines tels qu’établir la paix à l’est du pays, réduire la pauvreté,
créer de l’emploi, lutter contre la corruption, parmi d’autres. L’analyse des résultats de décembre 2017 montre
que les efforts en matière de lutte contre les violences sexuelles et d’unification des différents groupes
ethniques sont perçu positivement plus fréquemment que les autres domaines. Néanmoins, seulement 17%
des personnes interrogées jugent positivement les efforts de lutte contre les violences sexuelles, et 15% jugent
positivement les efforts d’unification. C’est sur les questions économiques et de gouvernance que le
gouvernement est jugé le plus sévèrement : seulement 7% jugent positivent les efforts pour réduire la
pauvreté ; le même pourcentage (7%) jugent positivement les efforts de lutte contre la corruption, et 8% sont
positif envers les efforts pour créer de l’emploi. En général, le niveau de satisfaction est le plus élevé en Ituri.
Figure : Perception des efforts du gouvernement national
(% bon – très bon)
Bring peace
to Eastern
Congo
Unite different
ethnic groups
Reduce
poverty
Improve the lives
of Congolese
people
Create
employment
Ensure security
Fight against
corruption
Fight against
sexual violence
December 2017 data
Analysis of the data collected between March 2016 and December 2017 shows a decrease in the percentage of
people who rate the government's performance positively in all areas explored and across the three provinces.
In the province of Ituri, in all the eight areas included in the survey, there is a sudden and very pronounced
decrease between March and July 2017.
7% 3%
32%
12% 9% 7%
33%
15%
3% 0%
22%
7%3% 1%
22%
7%
5%0%
22%
8% 7%2%
30%
11%
3% 1%
21%
7%16%
7%
31%
17%
NK SK IT EasternDRC
NK SK IT EasternDRC
Sondages sur la Consolidation de la Paix et la Reconstruction dans l’Est de la RDC # 13 | Janvier 2018 9
Perception of the national government’s efforts
between March 2016 and December 2017 (% good ‐ very good)
Bring peace to Eastern
Congo
Reduce poverty
Create employment
Fight against corruption
Unite different ethnic
groups
Improve the lives of
Congolese people
Ensure security
Fight against sexual
violence
NK, 7% SK, 3%
IT, 32%
29%23%
19% 17% 20%16% Eastern DRC, 12%
NK, 3% SK, 0%
IT, 22%
14%9% 8% 8% 11% 8%
Eastern DRC, 7%
NK, 5% SK, 0%
IT, 22%
13%9% 8% 8% 10% 8%
Eastern DRC, 8%
NK, 3% SK, 1%
IT, 21%
14%9% 9% 8% 11%
8%Eastern DRC, 7%
NK, 9%SK, 7%
IT, 33%
28%22% 22% 20%
23%18% Eastern DRC, 15%
NK, 3%SK, 1%
IT, 22%
14%11% 10% 9% 11%
7%Eastern DRC, 7%
NK, 7%
SK, 2%
IT, 30%29%
23% 20% 19% 21%14% Eastern DRC, 11%
NK, 16%
SK, 7%
IT, 31%40% 38%
33% 32%36%
24% Eastern DRC, 17%
Mar‐16 Jun‐16 Sep‐16 Dec‐16 Mar‐17 Jul‐17 Dec‐17
Sondages sur la Consolidation de la Paix et la Reconstruction dans l’Est de la RDC # 13 | Janvier 2018 10
The negative trend in the perception of government efforts in the different areas explored mirrors a similar
trend in terms of satisfaction with access to basic services and needs. Both variables are associated, and it is
possible that a deterioration in access to basic services and needs results in a loss of confidence in government
efforts.
Sondages sur la Consolidation de la Paix et la Reconstruction dans l’Est de la RDC # 13 | Janvier 2018 11
GOVERNANCE: The feeling of being able to influence decisions
and contribute to peace is frequent but unequal among women
and men.
Le sondage de décembre 2017 explorait le regard que la population porte sur elle‐même et sa capacité à
apporter des changements positifs dans la communauté. Les résultats montrent que les Congolais vivant à l’Est
de la République Démocratique du Congo demeurent optimistes en ce qui concerne la capacité des gens
ordinaires à contribuer à la paix dans leurs quartiers ou villages. Sur l’ensemble des trois provinces, plus de deux
personnes sur trois (67%) estiment que les gens, comme eux, ont la capacité d’apporter un changement au
village ou quartier, et 61% jugent qu’il soit possible de participer aux décisions qui affectent le quartier ou
village. Un pourcentage similaire (67%) pense que les gens ont la capacité de contribuer à la paix dans le quartier
ou village.
Figure : Capacité d’influencer et contribuer aux décisions et à la paix (% oui)
Capacity to bring
changes to the
village/quartier
(% yes)
Possible to participate in
decisions that affect the
village/quartier (% yes)
Capacity to bring
changes to the
village/quartier
(% yes)
Women Men
December 2017 data
63%74%
64% 67%
56% 77%
56%66% 64% 61%
51% 72%
63%75%
64% 67%
57% 77%
NK SK IT EasternDRC
Sondages sur la Consolidation de la Paix et la Reconstruction dans l’Est de la RDC # 13 | Janvier 2018 12
In general, the population is more frequently positive about its ability to influence decisions and bring about
change in their communities in South Kivu province. At the level of the territories, people who believe that
people can bring positive change to the neighborhood / village are less frequent in Lubero (57%), Nyirangongo
(51%) and Rutshuru (51%) in North Kivu; in the territory of Uvira (55%) in South Kivu, and in the City of Bunia
(56%) and Mahagi (52%) in Ituri. More than four out of five people think that ordinary people have the capacity
to bring positive change to the neighborhood or village: Beni City (80%), Masisi (89%) and Walungu (95%).
For each question, there is a significant difference between women and men. On average, there is a gap of 20%
between men and women responding that it is possible to bring positive change, participate in decisions or
contribute to peace in the neighborhood. The fact that women have responded less frequently that they can
make a change to the neighborhood or that people can contribute to neighborhood decisions and peace may
be explained by their lower level of education ‐ People with a higher level of education are more frequently
optimistic about the ability of the population to make a change or influence decisions at the neighborhood level.
However, the difference between gender also reflects more systemic gender inequalities in the attitudes,
customs and traditions of the region.
Sondages sur la Consolidation de la Paix et la Reconstruction dans l’Est de la RDC # 13 | Janvier 2018 13
KEY GLOBAL INDICATORS (December 2017)
The following indicators are monitored in all the polls. Provincial averages may mask significant differences
between territories ‐ detailed results by territories are available on the www.peacebuildingdata.org site.
Aggregate statistics are based on the latest poll available in each territory.
SENSE OF SECURITY (% safe – very safe)
Latest data (December 2017)
Regional Trends (Total NK, SK, Ituri)
PERCEPTION OF SECURITY ACTORS (% trust for security)
Latest data (December 2017)
Regional Trends (Total NK, SK, Ituri)
53%62%
80%63%
27%38%
59%
39%
NK SK IT TOT.
Daily activities Walking alone at night
67% 70% 72% 76% 76% 75%69% 71% 73% 68% 63%
44% 46% 51% 53% 54% 52% 49% 53% 55%45%
39%
Dec.2013
Jun.2015
Sep.2015
Dec.2015
Mar.2016
Jun.2016
Sep.2016
Dec.2016
Mar.2017
Jul.2017
Dec.2017
Daily activities Walking alone at night
47% 47% 51% 48%41%55%
42% 46%
24% 19% 11%19%
NK SK IT TOT.
Police FARDC MONUSCO
61%51% 54% 54% 51% 48% 47%
33%
42%54%
48%
53% 49% 49% 50% 51% 49%42%
42%
45%50% 46%
25% 26% 24% 24% 25% 23% 20% 18% 23% 23% 19%
Dec.2013
Jun.2015
Sep.2015
Dec.2015
Mar.2016
Jun.2016
Sep.2016
Dec.2016
Mar.2017
Jul.2017
Dec.2017
Police FARDC MONUSCO
Sondages sur la Consolidation de la Paix et la Reconstruction dans l’Est de la RDC # 13 | Janvier 2018 14
PERCEPTION OF RELATIONS WITHIN AND ACROSS ETHNIC GROUPS (% GOOD – VERY GOOD)
Latest data (December 2017)
Regional Trends (Total NK, SK, Ituri)
CONFIANCE EN LA JUSTICE (% peu– aucune)
Latest data (December 2017)
Regional Trends (Total NK, SK, Ituri)
68% 64%77%
69%60% 58%
76%63%
NK SK IT TOT.
Relations within group Relations across groups
89%81% 82% 82% 80% 77% 71% 71% 75% 73% 69%
79% 74% 77% 77% 76% 73%64% 59%
70% 65% 63%
Dec.2013
Jun.2015
Sep.2015
Dec.2015
Mar.2016
Jun.2016
Sep.2016
Dec.2016
Mar.2017
Jul.2017
Dec.2017
Relations within group Relations across groups
70%81%
65% 73%69% 76%66% 71%
NK SK IT TOT.
Civilian justice system Military justice system
65%
75% 75%
72%
71% 70% 71% 71%73%
67%
73%
69%75% 75%
73%
69%67%
71% 71% 73%
67%71%
Dec.2013
Jun.2015
Sep.2015
Dec.2015
Mar.2016
Jun.2016
Sep.2016
Dec.2016
Mar.2017
Jul.2017
Dec.2017
Civilian justice system Military justice system