report by: surbhi bagaria [email protected] by: surbhi bagaria –...

Source: Company, www.dynamiclevels.com

Report By: Surbhi Bagaria – [email protected]


DCM Shriram Ltd- Present in all the top performing sectors

Company Overview and Stock Price 3

Products 4

Company Financials 6

Shareholding Pattern 11

Industry Overview 12

Investment Rationale 14


Company’s Overview and Stock Price

DCM Shriram Ltd. is a leading business conglomerate with a group turnover of Rs. 6,050 crores. The business portfolio of DCM Shriram comprises primarily of two types of businesses.

Agri-Rural Business: Urea & SSP fertilizers, Sugar, Farm inputs marketing such as DAP, Crop care Chemicals, Hybrid Seeds

Chlor-Vinyl Business: Caustic Soda, Chlorine, Calcium Carbide, PVC resins, PVC Compounds, Power and Cement. Also it has a value added business Fenesta Building Systems. DCM Shriram has been working in the agriculture sector with a vision to increase productivity and profitability of the farmers through its various businesses: Farm Solutions, Bioseed (Hybrid Seeds), DSCL Sugar. DCM Shriram aims to achieve its vision by adding value to farmers through its large farm extension programmes and last mile delivery activities. Fenesta UPVC windows is a customer focused brand of DCM Shriram, where the customer is assured of design support, offsite fabrication, firm commitments on deliveries and a trained installation team, to ensure consistent quality. The company is in the process of scaling up these operations and believes that these businesses would be its growth drivers in future.

Chart Hypothesis: DCM gave more almost 10 % correction from recent high of 245 to 210.

DCM Shriram Share Price Performance EXCHANGE SYMBOL DCM SHRIRAM

Current Price * (Rs.) 223

Face Value (Rs.) 2

52 Week High (Rs.) 244.95 (08-Aug-

16)

52 Week Low (Rs.) 102.40 (18-Sep-

15)

Life Time high (Rs.) 251.85 (01-Oct-

14)

Life Time low (Rs.) 2.15 (29-Apr-99)

Average Daily Movement [ADM] 10.42

Average Volume [20 days] 170431

1 Month Return (%) 3.14

P/E Ratio (x) 10.47

Book Value 129.02

Market Cap 3597.52 (Cr)

% of Promoter holding pledged 0

COMPANY PROFILE OF DCM Shriram

Date of Incorporation 06-Feb-1989

Date of Listing 26-Apr-1995

Management

Name Designation

Vikramajit Sen Addnl.Independent Director

Pravesh Sharma Addnl.Independent Director

Ajay S Shriram Chairman & Sr.Mng.Director

Ajit S Shriram Joint MD

Sharad Shrivastva Nominee Director

Vimal Bhandari Non ED

Sunil Kant Munjal Non ED

Ramni Nirula Non ED

Pradeep Dinodia Non ED

Vikram S Shriram Vice Chairman & MD

K K Kaul Whole Time Director

N J Singh Whole Time Director

Registered Office Address

1st Floor, Kanchenjunga Building,18, Barakhamba Road,110001,New

Delhi,Delhi,India

Website

http://www.dcmshriram.com


Products:

Agri-Rural Business

UREA Urea brand,‘SHRIRAM' has developed a strong presence in the rural market over the last 4 decades of operations, and today it symbolises premium quality, reliability and trust. It is manufactured at Urea plant in Kota that has a production capacity of 379,500 TPA

SUGAR DCM employs approximately 1.5 lakh farmers and has an installed capacity of 33,000 TCD, crushing around 4 million tons of cane from four manufacturing units. DSCL Sugar, entered the sugar business in 1997 with its first sugar manufacturing unit at Ajbapur in Lakhimpur Kheri District, followed by other manufacturing units at Rupapur, Hariawan and Loni, in Hardoi District of Uttar Pradesh.

FARM SOLUTIONS At DCM Shriram, motto is not just to offer a range of quality inputs in agri-business, but provide complete productivity solutions. With this inspiration, Shriram Farm Solutions has been serving farmers for over four decades through an extensive network of around 3000 channel partners and 30000 retailers. Its value added product portfolio includes: Nutrition Solutions, including bulk fertilizers like Urea, DAP, MOP and SSP that ensure balanced and adequate nutrition to plants for robust growth and development. Improved Seeds, Open Pollinated Seeds, Research Wheat, Crop Care Chemicals and Yield Enhancement Solutions.

HYBRID SEEDS BIOSEED DCM took over Bioseed in 2002. Bioseed had operations in India, Vietnam, Philippines and has since expanded to Indonesia, Bangladesh and Nepal. It’s end-to-end expertise across R&D, field and lab testing, data analytics, seed production, farm extension and a strong distribution network, enables DCM to provide quality seeds to farmers across South and South East Asia. The rich germplasm and cutting edge biotechnology research allows Bioseed to develop unique solutions that benefit farmers in several countries with similar climatic conditions.


Hariyali Kisaan Bazaar

Hariyali Bazaar is presently engaged in Fuel (petrol, diesel, LPG etc)

retailing activities at 37 outlets in 6 states.

Chlor-Vinyl Business

If the wealth of a nation is determined by its industries, the health of

its industries is dependent on the various raw materials that are used

in the manufacture of different products. At DCM Shriram, they

provide a lifeline for the country’s industrial economy with a wide

portfolio of basic chemicals and raw materials, such as, , Caustic Soda,

Chlorine, PVC Compounds, PVC Resin, Cement, Calcium Carbide,

among others.

CHLOR ALKALI At DCM Shriram, they manufacture products that contribute to the competitiveness of India's industrial economy.

CALCIUM CARBIDE Wide portfolio of PVC products play an important role in improving the performance of a broad range of industries.

PVC RESINS Product portfolio includes multiple grades of PVC resins to the tune of 70,000 TPA produced at the integrated manufacturing complex in Kota.

PVC COMPOUNDS At DCM Shriram they understand that industries need customized solutions for various specific segments. They have therefore formed a Joint Venture

CEMENT Shriram Cement is a unit of DCM Shriram Ltd. Shriram Cement has carved a niche for itself in the cement industry with market-leading products.


Company Financials

Consolidated Income Statement (in Cr) June-16 Mar-16 % Growth

Net Sales/Income from operations 1,436.27 1,320.43

Other Operating Income 5.34 12.55

Total Income From Operations 1,441.61 1,332.98 8.15%

Increase/Decrease in Stocks 300.56 -401.75

Consumption of Raw Materials 216.24 831.4

Purchase of Traded Goods 261.79 274.35

Power And Fuel 157.29 130.47

Employees Cost 125.75 138.16

Depreciation 23.86 22.99

Other Expenses 141.44 238.83

Total Expenditure 1,226.93 1,234.45 -0.61%

Operating Profit 214.68 98.53 117.88%

Other Income 11.22 8.23 36.33%

P/L Before Int., Excpt. Items & Tax 225.9 106.76

Interest 19.7 18.7

P/L Before Exceptional Items & Tax 206.2 88.06

P/L Before Tax 206.2 88.06

Tax 39.4 36.9

P/L After Tax from Ordinary Activities 166.8 51.16

PAT 166.8 51.16 226.04%

Minority Interest 0.1 --

Share Of P/L Of Associates 0.28 --

Net Profit/(Loss) For the Period 167.18 51.16 226.78%

Equity Share Capital 32.64 32.64

EPS (Rs.) 10.29 3.15 226.67%

The top line revenue of the company is increasing QoQ by 8%

The operating profit increased 117.88% QoQ.

The net profit of the company has increased 226% QoQ.


.

Balance Sheet (in Cr) Mar-16 Mar-15 % Growth

Equity Share Capital 32.64 32.64 Total Share Capital 32.64 32.64 Reserves and Surplus 2,062.99 1,825.90 12.98%

Total Reserves and Surplus 2,062.99 1,825.90 12.98%

Total Shareholders’ Funds 2,095.63 1,858.54 12.76%

Minority Interest 2.82 0.96 Long Term Borrowings 259.01 301.21 -14.01%

Deferred Tax Liabilities [Net] 119.19 122.03 -2.33%

Other Long Term Liabilities 39.46 36.47 8.20%

Long Term Provisions 166.54 148.33 12.28%

Total Non-Current Liabilities 584.2 608.04 -3.92%

Short Term Borrowings 729.54 338.88 115.28%

Trade Payables 1,176.37 1,119.98 5.03%

Other Current Liabilities 506.24 453.53 11.62%

Short Term Provisions 46.42 36.73 26.38%

Total Current Liabilities 2,458.57 1,949.12 26.14%

Total Capital And Liabilities 5,141.22 4,416.66 16.41%

Tangible Assets 1,360.95 1,370.30 -0.68%

Intangible Assets 99.53 72.45 37.38%

Capital Work-In-Progress 358 59.18 Intangible Assets Under Development 0.03 2.7 Other Assets 0.27 0.54 Fixed Assets 1,818.78 1,505.17 20.84%

Non-Current Investments 3.02 5.83 -48.20%

Long Term Loans And Advances 271.2 188.55 43.83%

Other Non-Current Assets 5.35 10.71 -50.05%

Total Non-Current Assets 2,098.35 1,710.26 22.69%

Inventories 1,329.19 1,132.15 17.40%

Trade Receivables 1,297.51 1,070.94 21.16%

Cash And Cash Equivalents 40.98 95.38 -57.04%

Short Term Loans And Advances 215.32 213.79 0.72%

Other Current Assets 159.87 194.14 -17.65%

Total Current Assets 3,042.87 2,706.40 12.43%

Total Assets 5,141.22 4,416.66 16.41%

The company has increased its long term assets in FY 16 in comparison to FY 15.

The company is decreasing its liabilities every year.

The company is decreasing its long term borrowings.


Cash Flows (in Cr) Mar-16 Mar – 15 % Growth

Net Profit/Loss Before Extraordinary Items And Tax 411.9 257.09 60.22%

Net Cash Flow From Operating Activities 102.64 186.11 -44.85%

Net Cash Used In Investing Activities -336.16 195.3 -272.12%

Net Cash Used From Financing Activities 175.34 -585.14 -129.97%

Net Inc/Dec In Cash And Cash Equivalents -58.18 -203.73 -71.44%

Cash And Cash Equivalents Begin of Year 74.06 277.79 -73.34%

Cash And Cash Equivalents End Of Year 15.88 74.06 -78.56%

The cash from Operating activities has increased by 60% in FY 16compared to FY 15

The cash from Investing activities is negative as the Company is in expansion mode and

has invested in machineries

Comfortable financials with healthy cash flows and good credit track record provides

ability to continuously invest in growth.

Revenue

by Product Mar – 15 Mar – 16

Revenue 56,063.1 57,947.7

Farm Solutions 14,160.6 17,978.0

Chloro-Vinyl 13,600.3 13,440.3

Sugar 10,622.3 9,427.8

Others-Textile 2,875.6 8,510.4

Fertilizer 7,250.7 7,939.8

Bioseed 3,792.1 3,213.3

Reconciliation (243.1) (653.4)

Inter segment revenue (2,197.8) (1,908.5)

Hariyali Kisaan Bazaar 4,648.2

Cement 1,554.2


Ratios

Ratios Mar-16 Mar-15 % Growth

Per Share Ratios Basic EPS (Rs.) 21.57 14.89 44.86%

Book Value [InclRevalReserve]/Share (Rs.) 131.43 113.79 15.50%

Dividend / Share(Rs.) 3.2 2.2 45.45%

Revenue from Operations/Share (Rs.) 351.44 337.02 4.28%

PBDIT/Share (Rs.) 36.27 29.01 25.03%

PBIT/Share (Rs.) 30.46 22.45 35.68%

PBT/Share (Rs.) 25.24 15.75 60.25%

Net Profit/Share (Rs.) 21.46 14.82 44.80%

Profitability Ratios PBIT Margin (%) 8.66 6.66 30.03%

Net Profit Margin (%) 6.1 4.39 38.95%

Return on Networth / Equity (%) 16.32 13.02 25.35%

Return on Capital Employed (%) 12.81 9.79 30.85%

Return on Assets (%) 6.82 5.56 22.66%

Total Debt/Equity (X) 0.46 0.34 35.29%

Asset Turnover Ratio (%) 111.76 126.56 -11.69%

Liquidity Ratios Current Ratio (X) 1.24 1.39 -10.79%

Quick Ratio (X) 0.7 0.81 -13.58%

Inventory Turnover Ratio (X) 4.49 5.09 -11.79%

Dividend Payout Ratio (NP) (%) 14.83 14.76 0.47%

Valuation Ratios Enterprise Value (Cr.) 3,220.62 2,288.50 40.73%

Price/BV (X) 1.06 0.94 12.77%

The Net profit Margin of the company is increasing.

Return on Equity ratio of the company is increasing every year.

Debt to Equity ratio has gone up by 35% indicating that the company has increased its Debt

YoY.


Key Financials Mar – 15 Mar – 16

Total Revenue 56,063.1 57,947.7 Growth Over Prior Year (9.0%) 3.4% EBITDA 4,094.9 4,916.0 Margin % 7.3% 8.5% EBIT 2,992.9 3,929.6 Margin % 5.3% 6.8% Net Income 2,108.0 2,972.2 Margin % 3.8% 5.1% Diluted EPS Excl. Extra Items

12.97

18.30 Growth Over Prior Year (11.2%) 41.1%

WACC Mar – 15 Mar – 16

Equity Cost of Equity 10.9% 12.3%

Weight of Equity 69.7% 67.9%

Debt Cost of Debt 9.9% 8.2%

Weight of Debt 30.3% 32.1%

WACC 10.6% 11.0%


Share Holding Pattern

Shareholding Pattern Mar – 16 Dec – 15 Sep – 15 Jun – 15 Mar - 15

Promoter and Promoter Group (%)

63.88 63.88 63.88 63.88 63.88

Indian 63.88 63.88 63.88 63.88 63.88

Foreign NIL NIL NIL NIL NIL

Institutions (%) 12.02 12.64 13.00 13.26 12.46

FII 1.47 1.07 1.01 1.31 1.65

DII 10.56 11.57 11.99 11.95 10.80

NonInstitutions (%) 24.10 23.49 23.13 22.87 23.67

Bodies Corporate NIL NIL NIL 1.72 2.33

Others 22.17 21.57 21.06 21.15 21.34

Custodians 1.93 1.92 2.07 NIL NIL

Total no. of shares (cr.) 16.24 16.24 16.24 16.24 16.24

Product Name Sales % of Sales

Value to Total Sales

Sugar 903.3 15.74

Urea 725.06 12.64

Caustic Soda 705.84 12.3

PVC Resins 489.14 8.52

Super Phosphate 462.09 8.05

Petrol 454.42 7.92

UPVC Windows 196.82 3.43

Di Ammonium Phosphate (DAP)

178.97 3.12

Cement 154.92 2.7

Mop (Muriate Of Potash) 150.3 2.62

Other Sales 977.42 17.03


Industry Overview

Chloro – Vinyl Businesses: The Chloro-Vinyl business’ earnings benefited from higher Chlor-Alkali revenue and lower cost of key input materials such as salt, limestone and carbon material. However, higher power cost at the Kota facility driven by various duties and levies on Coal and power generation by central and state government, moderated the earnings growth during the period

Chlor-Alkali: The Chlor-Alkali industry in India has 35 operating units with a combined installed capacity of 3.5 million TPA of Caustic Soda. The top three players comprise about 45% of the total installed capacity. The domestic demand for Caustic Soda and Chlorine in 2015-16 is estimated at about 3.4 million TPA and 2.7 million TPA respectively. The growth in demand for Caustic soda and Chlorine is linked to GDP growth

Plastics: India’s PVC resin industry’s capacity currently stands at around 1.4 million Metric Ton per annum (MTPA). As against this, domestic demand has been growing steadily and has reached 2.7 MTPA in FY 16, up 10% over last year. The gap in demand and supply is being met by the import of PVC resin in India. The continued focus of the Govt. on building infrastructure as envisaged in the 12th Five Year Plan – development of smart cities, rural housing and Agri-asset creation, rapid urbanization and other initiatives like investments in rural sanitation is expected to fuel growth of the PVC industry in India over the next few years. For Calcium Carbide, continuous increase in usage of desulphurization (DS) Compound in the Steel Industry remains the key growth driver. Sugar The Indian Sugar Industry is the second largest producer after Brazil and the largest consumer of sugar in the world. In domestic context, sugar is the second largest agro-based industry supporting over 50 million farmers along with indirect employment to rural population. It is estimated that about 7.5% of the rural population in India is involved with the sugar industry. Indian Sugar Industry is highly fragmented with private sector, Government undertakings, Co-operatives, and unorganized players. Unorganized players are mainly involved in production of Gur and Khandsari, the less refined form of sugar. The crushing period varies from region to region


beginning in October/ November and goes on till April/ May in all states except in southern states like Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh where it continues till July/ August. Globally, sugar prices are trading at almost 3 years high levels, which is a big respite for the entire industry. For the last 5 years high levels of inventory in the market led to lower sugar prices that adversely affected the financial viability of the sugar companies. The recovery in sugar prices is in anticipation of expected global deficit of 4-5 million Ton in 2015-16 season, a result of lower production in India, Thailand, north east Brazil and European Union. 2016-17 sugar season is also expected to be sugar deficit season and cane production in Brazil and its diversion for sugar or ethanol production will be key factors impacting overall deficit in 2016-17. Domestically sugar season 2015-16 witnessed huge volatility wherein sugar prices revived to around Rs 3,400/Qtl levels after touching 5 year low of 2200/ Qtl. This has been possible with the Central Govt’s exports push policy that enabled exports of about 1.5 million Ton of sugar in Sugar Season 2015-16 and decline in sugar production to just over 25 million Ton from 28.3 million Ton in last season. The majority of the decline in India production was driven by 20% fall in production to 8.4 million MT in Maharashtra due to draught during the year

Shriram Farm Solutions 2015-16 turned out to be another challenging year for the domestic Agri-inputs sector as distressed farmer economics, deficient South West monsoons and delayed start to the 2015 Rabi season adversely impacted off take of Agri-inputs in India. In 2015, the southwest monsoons stood 14% deficient vis-a-vis the long term period average. In 2014 as well there was a deficit of 12% in the Southwest monsoons. Kharif 2015 witnessed change in sowing patterns as well reflected by the shift towards crops such as pulses and oil seeds. Late harvesting of Kharif crops and low reservoir levels led to delayed sowing in the Rabi 2015-16 season, which also impacted the sales volumes of Agri-inputs during the year. As per Indian Meteorological Department, 2016 Southwest monsoons are expected to be above average on expected easing out of the El-Nino phenomenon. This is expected to lift sentiment and provide fillip to the demand for fertilizers and other Agri-inputs such as crop care chemicals, seeds and micro-nutrients. However, weak farmer economics can weigh down to a certain extent on the positive impact of anticipated normal monsoons this year. Over the medium term, the Agri-inputs sector in India is poised to witness strong growth given the macro factors such as population growth, rising per capita income that are leading to rapid rise in growing demand for food.


Investment Rationale: The Company delivered a strong financial and operating performance during the year. Chemicals business performance improved led by better margins and volumes. Sugar business witnessed better margins with higher sugar recovery and firming up of sugar prices during the second half of the year. Fenesta business earnings improved on robust growth in sales volumes during the year. Performance of the Agri-input businesses faced challenges on account of deficient monsoons impacting demand and margins of Hybrid seeds, Agro Chemicals and bulk Fertilizer offerings. 1. Net Revenues increased by 4% to Rs.5,841 Crores

• Shriram Farm Solutions: FY 16 revenues increased by 27% YoY to Rs.1,798 Crores. The rise in business’ revenue was driven by higher sales volumes of bulk fertilizers during the year.

• Fertilizer: Revenue increased by 10% YoY to Rs 798 Crores primarily due to higher realizations, a result of the rise in gas prices, which is a pass through.

• Sugar: Revenue during FY 16 declined by 11% YoY to Rs.924 Crores due to lower volumes and a 11% fall in average realizations vis-à-vis last year.

• Bioseed: Revenue during the year declined 15%, to Rs 485 Crores vs. Rs.570 Crores last year on lower sales volumes, as challenging Agri scenario in India and international markets impacted off-take of Hybrid seed offerings.

2. Profit before depreciation, interest and tax increased to Rs 544 Crores in FY 16, up 21% over previous year.

Chloro-Vinyl: PBDIT improved by 9% YoY to Rs.392 Crores on higher realizations in the Chlor Alkali business and overall decline in input costs.

Sugar: Sugar business’ PBDIT improved to Rs 113 Crores vs. -ve Rs 31 Crores last year due to lower costs led by better recoveries, better prices in Q4 leading to lower inventory losses vis-a-vis last year and sugarcane subsidy for

the previous season received during the year. Growth in Company’s earnings driven by the above businesses was moderated by the lower performance of Agri-input businesses:

Bioseed and Shriram Farm solutions: PBDIT in FY 16 stood lower as El-nino impact led to adverse agro-climatic conditions resulting in lower sales volumes and margins leading to lower earnings during the year.

Fertilizer (Urea): PBDIT in FY 16 declined primarily due to the tightening in the energy efficiency norms under the New Urea Policy.

3. Finance Costs – Finance costs during FY 16 declined by 23% to Rs.86 Crores. 4. Net Profit increased to Rs.297 Crores, up 41% YoY 5. Net Debt stood at Rs 1,057 Crores as on March 31, 2016 vs. Rs 688 Crores as on March 31, 2015. The Company’s balance sheet remains strong with a capital gearing ratio of 0.5 as on March 31, 2016. 6. The Board of directors have recommended a total dividend of 160% for FY 16 as compared to 110% in previous year 7. Credit rating of company’s Long term debt was upgraded to [ICRA] AA- from [ICRA] A+ in Q4 FY 16. Rating for Short term debt was affirmed at [ICRA] A1+

We initiate coverage on DCM Shriram Ltd as a BUY @210 with a target of Rs 280 representing a potential upside

of 33% from the buy price. DCM Shriram Ltd is trading at a low PE of 10.65.

https://www.dynamiclevels.com/en/dcm-shriram-share-price-forecast


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report by: surbhi bagaria [email protected] by: surbhi bagaria –...

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