report by: surbhi bagaria surbhi@dynamiclevels · report by: surbhi bagaria ... project of phase 1...
TRANSCRIPT
Page 1 Source: Company, www.dynamiclevels.com
Report By: Surbhi Bagaria – [email protected]
Page 2 Source: Company, www.dynamiclevels.com
Ajmera Realty & Infra India Ltd- India's leading Real Estate Company
Company Overview and Stock Price 3
Company Financials 5
Peer Comparison 9
Shareholding Pattern 10
Industry Overview 11
Investment Rationale 14
Ajmera Realty & Infra India Ltd: Major Projects
Page 3 Source: Company, www.dynamiclevels.com
Company’s Overview and Stock Price
Ajmera Realty is among top 100 best developers throughout the country having delivered significant volumes of projects in the last five years, and is likely to deliver the large volume of projects in the next three years. Ajmera Realty & Infra India Ltd is recognized as one of India's leading Real Estate Company. The reach and interest of the Ajmera Realty & Infra India Ltd has only grown with time and has extended to other realms, such as power, education and social welfare. The company now has a strong presence in and around Mumbai, Ahmedabad and Bangalore as well as an international project in Bahrain. Quality, innovative construction technology, comfort, aesthetic appeal and maximum value for clients money are few attributes that enrich Ajmera Realty & Infra. From Mumbai to Bengaluru, Ajmera Realty & Infra has won the hearts of its customers with its properties that promise to be cherished for generations.
Chart Hypothesis: Ajmera Realty gave more almost 25 % correction from recent high of 182 to 140 and is taking support of 150 levels
AJMERA REALTY Share Price Performance EXCHANGE SYMBOL AJMERA REALTY
Current Price * (Rs.) 155.45
Face Value (Rs.) 10
52 Week High (Rs.) 192.35 (29-12-15)
52 Week Low (Rs.) 90.00 (29-9-15)
Life Time high (Rs.) 650.00 (06-12-06)
Life Time low (Rs.) 2.00 (07-Dec-98)
Average Daily Movt 7.62
Average Volume 87082
1 Month Return (%) -5.91
P/E Ratio (x) 12.97
Book Value 129.11
Market Cap 550.73 (Cr) % of Promoter holding pledged 6.19
COMPANY PROFILE OF AJMERA REALTY
Date of Incorporation 30-May-1190
Date of Listing 06-Apr-2010
Management
Name Designation
Rajnikant S Ajmera Chairman & Managing Director
Ambalal C Patel Independent Director
Jagdish J Doshi Independent Director
Aarti M Ramani Independent Director
Manoj l Ajmera Managing Director
Sanjay C Ajmera Whole Time Director
Registered Office Address
"Citi Mall", 2nd Floor,New Link Road,Andheri (West),400053,Mumbai,Maharashtra,India
Website
http://www.aril.co.in
Page 4 Source: Company, www.dynamiclevels.com
Ajmera i-Land Ajmera i-Land is Ajmera’s biggest asset in terms of land
bank.
It’s a fully integrated township with some distinguishing features like
25 acres of dedicated gardens, a sports academy, Monorail and Eastern Express Highway in the vicinity. The making of i-Land is just the preview of what Ajmera envisions to accomplish in the future.
Lifestyle at Ajmera i-Land Reputed School
Open Markets
Entertainment & recreation zones
Convenience stores
Health centres
Tree-lined boulevards
Commercial hubs
Leisure avenues
25 acres of garden area
Osian Solar Power Ajmera Realty and Infra India Ltd. forayed into power generation a few years ago by setting up solar power plant in Jodhpur district of Rajasthan. The project has been awarded ‘Solar Power Developer Award’ for the commendable efforts put in the early commissioning of the Project of Phase 1 of JNNSM and also for being one of the best performing projects on the basis of plant load factor.
Subsidiaries of Ajmera Realty
Jolly Brothers Private Limited
Ajmera Estate Karnataka Private Limited
Ajmera Realty ventures Private Limited
Ajmera Realcon Private Limited
Ajmera Mayfair Global W.L.L.
Ajmera Biofuel Limited
Current Capitalization (Millions ) Share Price (inr) 155.2 Shares Out. 35.5 Market Capitalization (inr) 5,507.3 Cash & Short Term Investments 186.2 Total Debt 1,999.6 Pref. Equity 0.0 Total Minority Interest 890.5 Total Enterprise Value (inr) 8,211.2 Book Value of Common Equity 4,521.1 Pref. Equity 0.0 Total Minority Interest 890.5 Total Debt 1,999.6 Total Capital 7,411.2
Page 5 Source: Company, www.dynamiclevels.com
Company Financials
Consolidated Income Statement (in Cr) Mar’16 Mar’15 Growth %
Net Sales/Income from operations 322.05 219.1 47%
Other Operating Income 3.09 2.49 24%
Total Income From Operations 325.14 221.59 47%
Increase/Decrease in Stocks -4.22 -- Employees Cost 22.05 17.23 28%
Depreciation 2.43 6.82 -64%
Other Expenses 215.24 141.25 52%
Total Expenditure 235.5 165.3 42%
Operating Profit 89.64 56.29 59%
P/L Before Int., Excpt. Items & Tax 89.64 56.29 Interest 31 23.37 P/L Before Exceptional Items & Tax 58.64 32.92 P/L Before Tax 58.64 32.92 Tax 13.06 6.76 P/L After Tax from Ordinary Activities 45.58 26.16 PAT 45.58 26.16 74%
Minority Interest -3.16 -0.47 Net Profit/(Loss) For the Period 42.42 25.69 65%
Equity Share Capital 35.48 35.48 Reserves 416.63 380.72 EPS (Rs.) [After Extraordinary items] 11.95 7.24 65%
The top line revenue of the company increased 47%YoY.
The operating profit increased 59% in FY 16 from last financial year.
The net profit of the company has increased 65% in FY 16 from the last financial year.
EPS of the company has increased 65% in FY 16 from the last financial year from 7.24 Rs to 11.95 Rs.
Key Financials Mar’14 Mar’15 Mar’16
Total Revenue 784.1 2,008.7 3,160.2 Growth Over Prior Year (1.8%) 156.2% 57.3% EBITDA 227.7 553.1 860.4 Margin % 29.0% 27.5% 27.2% EBIT 169.7 484.9 836.1 Margin % 21.6% 24.1% 26.5% Net Income 162.0 256.8 424.2 Margin % 20.7% 12.8% 13.4% Diluted EPS Excl. Extra Items 4.57 7.24 11.95 Growth Over Prior Year 4.6% 58.4% 65.1%
Page 6 Source: Company, www.dynamiclevels.com
Balance Sheet (in millions) Mar’16 Mar’15 Growth%
ASSETS
Cash And Equivalents 186.2 122.9 52%
Total Cash & ST Investments 186.2 122.9
Accounts & Notes Receivable 467.3 214.0
Total Receivables 467.3 214.0 118%
Inventories 6,896.4 8,303.9
Prepaid Exp. 0.6
Restricted Cash 1.8
Other Current Assets 464.6 460.3
Total Current Assets 8,014.5 9,103.5 -12%
Net Property, Plant & Equipment 719.1 566.0
Long-term Investments 3,876.0 89.0
Other Long-Term Assets 2,783.0
Total Assets 12,609.6 12,541.5 1%
LIABILITIES
Short-term Borrowings 159.1 419.3
Accounts Payable 273.6 783.7
Other Current Liabilities 1,413.6 601.3
Total Current Liabilities 1,846.3 1,804.3 2%
Long-Term Debt 1,840.5 2,622.6
Other Non-Current Liabilities 3,511.2 2,986.2
Total Liabilities 7,198.0 7,413.1 -3%
Minority Interest 890.5 971.2 Additional Paid In Capital 354.8 580.3 Comprehensive Inc. and Other 4,166.3 3,577.0 Total Equity 5,411.6 5,128.4 Total Liabilities And Equity 12,609.6 2,541.5 1%
Book Value/Share 127.4 117.2
The company has maintained its long term assets in FY 16 in comparison to FY 15.
The company is decreasing its liabilities every year.
The company is decreasing its borrowings.
The book value per share of the company is increasing every year.
Page 7 Source: Company, www.dynamiclevels.com
Cash Flows (in millions) Mar’15 Mar‘14 Mar’ 13
Net Income 256.8 162.0 154.9
Depreciation & Amort., Total 68.2 57.9 63.5
Other Non-Cash Adj 4.7 12.0 (27.4)
Changes in Non-Cash Capital (982.5) (981.2) (347.6)
Cash from Ops. (652.8) (749.3) (156.6)
Capital Expenditure (30.0) - (229.4)
Sale of Property, Plant, and Equipment - 12.3 -
Cash Acquisitions (3.4) (52.2) (23.6)
Invest. in Marketable & Equity Securt. (3.4) (52.2) (23.6)
Other Investing Activities 3.4 52.2 23.6
Cash from Investing (33.3) (39.9) (252.9)
Net Short Term Debt Issued/Repaid 136.6 (89.3) 182.8
Long-Term Debt Issued 550.0 854.2 431.4
Total Debt Issued/Repaid 686.5 764.9 614.2
Pref. Dividends Paid (60.3) (53.3) (53.3)
Total Dividends Paid (60.3) (53.3) (53.3)
Cash from Financing 626.2 711.6 560.9
Net Change in Cash (60.0) (77.5) 151.4
WACC FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016
Equity Cost of Equity 11.0% 11.4% 13.9%
Weight of Equity 35.9% 57.9% 71.0%
Debt Cost of Debt 9.1% 8.5% 8.0%
Weight of Debt 64.1% 42.1% 29.0%
Weight of Pref Equity 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
WACC 9.8% 10.2% 12.2%
Capital Structure FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016
Millions % of Total Millions % of Total Millions % of Total
Hist Market Cap 1,868.3 35.9% 4,185.4 57.9% 4,903.3 71.0% ST Borrowings 158.8 3.1% 419.3 5.8% 159.1 2.3% LT Borrowings 3,172.6 61.0% 2,622.6 36.3% 1,840.5 26.7% Pref Equity 0.0 0.0% 0.0 0.0% 0.0 0.0% Total Capital 5,199.6 100.0% 7,227.3 100.0% 6,902.9 100.0%
Page 8 Source: Company, www.dynamiclevels.com
Ratios
Ratios Mar-16 Mar-15 Mar-14
Profitability
Return on Assets 3.4% 2.2% 1.6%
Return on Capital 8.9% 5.6% 2.8%
Return on Equity 9.8% 6.3% 4.1%
Margin Analysis
EBITDA Margin 27.2% 27.5% 29.0%
EBIT Margin 26.5% 24.1% 21.6%
Earnings from Cont. Ops Margin 26.5% 24.1% 21.6%
Net Income Margin 13.4% 12.8% 20.7%
Normalized Net Income Margin 13.4% 12.8% 20.7%
Free Cash Flow Margin -- -34.0% -95.6%
Asset Turnover
Total Asset Turnover 0.3x 0.2x 0.1x
Fixed Asset Turnover 4.9x 3.0x 0.6x
Accounts Receivable Turnover 9.3x 9.6x 4.3x
Short Term Liquidity
Current Ratio 4.3x 5.0x 10.6x
Quick Ratio 0.4x 0.2x 0.5x
Cash from Ops. To Curr Liab 0.1x 0.1x 0.2x
Avg. Days Sales Out. 39.5x 38.2x 84.5x
Avg. Days Payable Out. -- 112.0x 31.5x
Long Term Solvency
Total Debt/Equity 37.0% 59.3% 75.9%
Total Debt/Capital 27.0% 37.2% 43.2%
LT Debt/Equity 40.7% 63.1% 80.1%
LT Debt/Capital 24.8% 32.1% 41.1%
Total Liabilities/Total Assets 42.4% 44.7% 52.5%
EBIT / Interest Exp. 2.70x 2.08x 4.60x
EBITDA / Interest Exp. 2.78x 2.37x 6.16x
(EBITDA-CAPEX) / Interest Exp. -- 2.24x 6.16x
Total Debt/EBITDA 2.32x 5.50x 14.63x
Net Debt/EBITDA 2.11x 5.28x 13.83x
The EBITDA Margin of the company is increasing.
The Operating Margin ratio of the company is increasing in every year.
The Company is reducing its debt every year and that is clearly visible in its debt equity ratio..
The interest coverage ratio of the company is increasing every year.
Page 9 Source: Company, www.dynamiclevels.com
Peer Comparison
Company Name: AJMERA REALTY
OBEROI REALTY
KOLTE PATIL
PRESTIGE SOBHA
Latest Fiscal Year: 03/2016 03/2016 03/2016 03/2016 03/2016 52-Week High 192.35 316.25 207.80 248.00 377.20 52-Week High Date 12/29/2015 7/7/2016 8/3/2015 7/9/2015 7/8/2015 52-Week Low 90.00 209.25 95.50 129.55 230.00 52-Week Low Date 9/29/2015 9/2/2015 2/26/2016 3/17/2016 2/25/2016 Daily Volume 44,270 1,834,786 44,109 50,422 37,214 Current Price: 156.85 289.60 142.75 186.45 326.85 52-Week High % Change -18.5% -8.4% -31.3% -25.6% -14.6% 52-Week Low % Change 74.3% 38.4% 49.5% 43.9% 42.1% Total Common Shares (M) 35.5 339.3 75.8 375.0 98.1 Market Capitalization 5,565.8 98,262.4 10,816.9 69,918.8 32,052.2 Total Debt 1,999.6 5,925.9 5,698.9 57,932.6 21,537.0 Minority Interest 890.5 2,886.1 3,233.8 157.0 Cash and Equivalents 186.2 3,952.7 850.7 6,636.5 1,333.0 Current Enterprise Value 8,269.7 100,235.6 18,551.2 124,448.7 52,413.2
Comparison of periodical performance of Ajmera Realty with its Peer companies
Company Name Last Price 1 Week 1 Month 3 Months 6 Months 1 Year
AJMERA REALTY 156.85 -0.39 -3.24 6.45 -9.58 14.03
OBEROI REALTY 289.6 3.89 1.68 26.24 5.58 3.52
KOLTE PATIL 142.75 0.46 12.17 30.1 -0.76 -27.55
PRESTIGE 186.45 2.39 -0.58 13.09 -0.97 -23
SOBHA 326.85 -0.14 6.24 21.24 5.24 -12.28
Page 10 Source: Company, www.dynamiclevels.com
Share Holding Pattern
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1 2 3 4 5
Promoter and Promoter Group (%)
FII
DII
NonInstitutions (%)
Shareholding Pattern Mar’16 Dec’ 15 Sep’15 Jun’ 15 Mar’ 15
Promoter and Promoter Group (%) 61.96 62.85 62.84 62.85 62.85
Indian 61.96 62.85 62.84 62.85 62.85
Foreign NIL NIL NIL NIL NIL
Institutions (%) 0.09 0.12 0.02 0.00 0.00
FII NIL NIL NIL NIL NIL
DII 0.09 0.12 0.02 0.00 0.00
Non Institutions (%) 37.95 37.03 37.13 37.15 37.15
Bodies Corporate NIL 3.76 4.50 4.59 5.50
Others 37.95 33.27 32.63 32.56 31.65
Custodians NIL NIL NIL NIL NIL
Total no. of shares (cr.) 67.32 67.27 67.03 66.68 66.63
Page 11 Source: Company, www.dynamiclevels.com
Industry Overview
India's growing market size
The real estate sector is one of the most globally recognised sectors. In India, real estate is the second largest employer after agriculture and is slated to grow at 30 per cent over the next decade. The Indian real estate market has become one of the most preferred destinations in the Asia Pacific1 as overseas funds accounted for more than 50 per cent of all investment activity in India in 2014, compared with just 26 per cent in 2013. The real estate sector comprises four sub sectors - housing, retail, hospitality, and commercial. The growth of this sector is well complemented by the growth of the corporate environment and the demand for office space as well as urban and semi-urban accommodations. The construction industry ranks third among the 14 major sectors in terms of direct, indirect and induced effects in all sectors of the economy. It is also expected that this sector will incur more non-resident Indian (NRI) investments in both the short term and the long term. Bengaluru is expected to be the most favoured property investment destination for NRIs, followed by Ahmedabad, Pune, Chennai, Goa, Delhi and
Dehradun. The Indian real estate market is expected to touch US$ 180 billion by 2020. The housing sector alone contributes 5-6 per cent to the country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). In the period FY08-20, the market size of this sector is expected to increase at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 11.2 per cent. Retail, hospitality and commercial real estate are also growing significantly, providing the much-needed infrastructure for India's growing needs. During the first nine months of 2015, PE funds invested about US$ 2.4 billion in the real estate sector, across 53 transactions compared US$ 1.3 billion across 57 transactions in the same period last year. Deal sizes have also increased in 2015, and residential projects both luxury and affordable have attracted a substantial amount of capital. Private Equity (PE) funds and Non-Banking Financial Companies (NBFCs) in India are seen increasingly investing jointly in real estate projects, in order to hedge risk and undertake bigger transactions. Investments The Indian real estate sector has witnessed high growth in recent times with the rise in demand for office as well as residential spaces. According to data released by Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion (DIPP), the construction development sector in India has received Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) equity inflows to the tune of US$ 24.156 billion in the period April 2000-September 2015.
Page 12 Source: Company, www.dynamiclevels.com
FDI in Indian Real Estate Sector:
It seems like 100% FDI allowed in the real estate development sector in India has caught the fancy of Japanese and Chinese investors.
Real estate services firm Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL) reported that Japanese investors will make investments worth $2 billion in the next three years in industrial and residential projects. The Indian property market is becoming a major investment ground for Chinese and Japanese developers, said JLL.
Earlier, Wanda, the biggest Chinese developer signed a MoU with
Haryana government and more developers and private equity investors
from China and Japan are expected to make a foray into the Indian
realty market soon.
“Japanese developers are keen to explore strategic partnerships and
enter into joint ventures with Indian builders, and are particularly
interested in industrial projects. There is likely to be an inflow of at
least $2 billion in investments from Japan into the Indian real estate
market over the next three years,” JLL India Chairman and Country
Head Anuj Puri said.
He also added that the sudden surge in the number of big investment
projects by foreign developers is the result of the government
announcement of 100% FDI investment allowed in real estate industry.
“One of China’s most prominent developers, Dalian Wanda Group,
signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) earlier this year with
Haryana to develop ‘Wanda Industrial New City’.
The investment of $10 billion, phased out over the next decade, is a
very significant outlay by any Chinese company in India,” Puri said.
He added that there is a long queue of Chinese companies interested
in entering India.
The survey conducted by RICS-JLL in January this year had found that
62% of the respondents felt that developers and private equity firms
from Japan and China are waiting in queues to enter the Indian real
estate market in 2016.
Page 13 Source: Company, www.dynamiclevels.com
Government Initiatives
The Government of India along with the governments of the respective states has taken several initiatives to encourage the development in the sector. The Smart City Project, where there is a plan to build 100 smart cities, is a prime opportunity for the real estate companies. Below are some of the other major Government Initiatives:
The Government of Rajasthan became the first state to initiate private investments in affordable housing by signing four Memoranda of Understanding (MoUs) with private players for an investment of Rs 5,400 crore (US$ 810 million).
The Ministry of Housing and Urban Poverty Alleviation (HUPA) has commissioned a study by Indian Institute of Technology, Kanpur on testing of new construction technologies, with the objective of promoting new housing technologies in the country.
India’s Prime Minister Mr. Narendra Modi approved the launch of Housing for All by 2022. Under the Sardar Patel Urban Housing Mission, 30 million houses will be built in India by 2022, mostly for the economically weaker sections and low-income groups, through public-private-partnership (PPP) and interest subsidy.
The Government of India has relaxed the norms to allow Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in the construction development sector. This move should boost affordable housing projects and smart cities across the country.
The Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) has notified final regulations that will govern real estate investment trusts (REITs) and infrastructure investment trusts (InvITs). This move will enable easier access to funds for cash-strapped developers and create a new investment avenue for institutions and high net worth individuals, and eventually ordinary investors.
The Government of Maharashtra announced a series of measures to bring transparency and increase the ease of doing business in the real estate sector.
The State Government of Kerala has decided to make the process of securing permits from local bodies for construction of houses smoother, as it plans to make the process online with the launch of a software called 'Sanketham'. This will ensure a more standardised procedure, more transparency, and less corruption and bribery.
India’s Prime Minister
Mr. Narendra Modi
approved the launch
of Housing for All by
2022.
GOI has relaxed the
norms to allow Foreign
Direct Investment
(FDI) in the
construction
development sector.
GOI along with the
governments of the
respective states has
taken several initiatives to
encourage the
development in the sector
(FDI) in the construction
development sector.
Page 14 Source: Company, www.dynamiclevels.com
Investment Rationale:
Responding to an increasingly well-informed consumer base and, bearing in mind the aspect of globalisation, Indian real estate developers have shifted gears and accepted fresh challenges. The most marked change has been the shift from family owned businesses to that of professionally managed ones. Real estate developers, in meeting the growing need for managing multiple projects across cities, are also investing in centralised processes to source material and organise manpower and hiring qualified professionals in areas like project management, architecture and engineering. The growing flow of FDI into Indian real estate is encouraging increased transparency. Developers, in order to attract funding, have revamped their accounting and management systems to meet due diligence standards.
In the real estate, Ajmera has a presence in 3 metro cities spanning 3 States. The Company continues to operate in its existing markets whilst exploring avenues and opportunities for further diversification of its market presence. With new proposed projects in Bengaluru and Ahmedabad, through its subsidiaries and associates the Company is entering into higher level of an era of consolidation and expansion.
Brand Reputation: Enjoys higher recall and influences the buying decision of the customer. Strong customer connects further results in higher premium realisations.
Execution: Possesses a successful track record of quality execution of projects with contemporary architecture.
Significant leveraging opportunity: Follows conservative debt practice which provides a significant leveraging opportunity for further expansions.
Outsourcing: Operates an outsourcing model of appointing globally renowned architects/contractors that allows scalability and emphasizes contemporary design and quality construction – a key factor of success.
Transparency: Follows a strong culture of corporate governance and ensures transparency and a high level of business ethics.
As India awaits policy reforms to pick up speed, Ajmera firmly believes that the demand for Real Estate in a country like India should remain strong in the medium to long term. Ajmera’s well-accepted brand, contemporary architecture, well-designed projects in strategic locations, strong balance sheet, and stable financial performance even in testing times make it a preferred choice for customers and shareholders.
Ajmera is ideally placed to further strengthen its development potential by acquiring new land parcels.
We initiate coverage on Ajmera Realty as a BUY @150 with a target of Rs 190 representing a potential upside of
25% from the buy price. Ajmera Realty is trading at a PE of 12.9
Page 15 Source: Company, www.dynamiclevels.com
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