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ARTHUR J. GALLAGHER AJGINTERNATIONAL.COM LONDON CPRI MARKET UPDATE FOR JULY 2017 1
CREDIT AND POLITICAL RISK INSURANCE (CPRI)JULY 2017
REPORT & MARKET UPDATE
LONDON CPRI MARKET UPDATE FOR JULY 2017 AJGINTERNATIONAL.COM ARTHUR J. GALLAGHER 2
FOUNDED BY ARTHUR GALLAGHER IN CHICAGO IN 1927, ARTHUR J. GALLAGHER & CO HAS GROWN TO BECOME ONE OF THE LARGEST INSURANCE BROKERAGE AND RISK MANAGEMENT COMPANIES IN THE WORLD. WITH SIGNIFICANT REACH INTERNATIONALLY, THE GROUP EMPLOYS OVER 21,500 PEOPLE AND ITS GLOBAL NETWORK PROVIDES SERVICES IN MORE THAN 150 COUNTRIES.
OUTSIDE THE US, WE USE THE BRAND NAME ARTHUR J. GALLAGHER.
ARTHUR J. GALLAGHER AJGINTERNATIONAL.COM LONDON CPRI MARKET UPDATE FOR JULY 2017
Review 2
Commercial Market Overview 6
Available Market Capacity 9
Total Capacity Available by Tenor – July 2017 10
Available Market Capacity Comparison 11
Emerging Markets Country Risk Ratings 12
Contacts 15
CONTENTS
LONDON CPRI MARKET UPDATE FOR JULY 2017 AJGINTERNATIONAL.COM ARTHUR J. GALLAGHER 2
We are in what the political scientist Ian Bremmer calls a “G-Zero” world; one in which no country or bloc can shape or direct global events. The era of the cacophony is upon us.” Angela Merkel, the G-Zero Chancellor. As in The Economist,
July 7th 2017 by JC Hamburg.
The Arthur J. Gallagher Market Update for July 2017 summarises the changes in lines and tenors available from the commercial political risk insurers since our last report in January 2017. The summary reflects the outcome of reinsurance negotiations where renewals have been completed in the intervening period, as well as the arrival of any new insurers who had gained approval for their business plans and obtained sufficient capital allocations. Changes to credit agencies’ rating of the insurers are also highlighted.
1 Economic Growth Outlook - Qatar - Q3 2017. BMI Research, June 15th 2017
Tensions remain high on the Arabian Peninsula as Saudi Arabia and its allies continue to enforce sanctions against Qatar. As it currently stands there is no resolution in sight. Recent commentary suggests that while the de facto blockade is expensive, it has not had any substantial effect on Qataris’ way of life1. The first of two possibly unforeseen effects of these sanctions is the impact on Saudi and UAE-based companies that trade with Qatar, particularly construction companies linked to the 2020 FIFA World Cup. The second being that Iran and Turkey have become increasingly active in alleviating the effects of sanctions on Qatar. This increased rapport between the three countries is precisely what the sanctions were aiming to avoid. Qatar’s status as the largest LNG exporter gives it additional clout to weather this political storm.
The first half of 2017 was instrumental in the development of China’s One Belt One Road (OBOR) policy. This USD 900 billion infrastructure project will see China don the mantle of globalisation discarded by America’s foreign policy makers. The project has begun to gather considerable momentum following its endorsement by Japan’s Shinzo Abe. This constitutes a dramatic change in Japanese foreign policy and further demonstrates the shifting of global power.
The recent failure of Italian banks Veneto Banca and Banca Popolare di Vincenza, and the subsequent bail out by the Italian government is the latest in a string of issues to dog the state and, symptomatically, the EU. With slowing growth, Brexit uncertainty and a weakened bloc there could be substantial challenges ahead for the new
Merkel/Macron power duo. With German elections this year, and Italian elections shortly thereafter, there is likely to be a shift in the way the EU interacts with the world.
A number of African countries, including Niger, Algeria, Nigeria and Angola will begin to move towards a more negative outlook. The main reason lies in their overreliance on a single resource (oil, copper, uranium etc). The continued below peak commodity price combined with a growing population and the weakening of local currency is a recipe for considerable unrest with no improvement in hard currency accessibility and political stability. In a reversal of conventional roles African countries could seek to expand factory and workshop capacity aiming to take advantage of rising light industry costs in China. East Africa is well poised to
CPRI MARKET UPDATE JULY 2017
ARTHUR J. GALLAGHER AJGINTERNATIONAL.COM LONDON CPRI MARKET UPDATE FOR JULY 2017 3
do so and would help alleviate the area’s dependence on commodities.
Brazil has recently emerged from the worst recession in its history, during which the economy shrank by 8%. Ongoing political scandals which have rocked the country have done little to restore investor confidence in Latin America’s largest economy. Venezuela is experiencing a constitutional crisis as low oil output magnifies the effect of a much-reduced oil price. Oil consumption
2 Venezuela’s Complicated Crisis for Oil” by Liam Denning, Bloomberg News, April 25th 2017 https://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articles/2017-04-25/venezuela-s-oil-crisis-not-just-a-supply-shock 3 Venezuela’s crisis drains its foreign reserves” by Gideon Long, Financial Times, July 15th 20 2017 https://www.ft.com/content/33efd9ce-625c-11e7-91a7-502f7ee26895
has dropped by 19% since 20132. To counter this, the country has been drawing heavily on its foreign reserves, which have dropped by roughly 66%3 since Nicolas Maduro came to power in 20134. The next 6 months will be pivotal for these two economies as Brazil begins to recover economically while president Michel Temer faces corruption allegations. Venezuela is likely to decline as Maduro attempts to re-write the constitution to consolidate his party’s power (PSUV).
Global political trends are becoming increasingly insular. As populism begins to become the norm, the ‘quick fix’ of ending austerity measures aim to promise a short, sweet relief but will likely be followed by an overall weakening of economic output followed by rising inflation.
Upcoming Elections: H2 2017
Date Country Comment
8th August 2017 Kenya Presidential
24th September 2017 Germany Federal
25th September 2017 Iraq KRG Independence Referendum
19th November 2017 Chile Presidential, Senate
26th November 2017 Honduras Presidential
31st December 2017 Kazakhstan House of Representative
31st December 2017 Angola National Assembly
LONDON CPRI MARKET UPDATE FOR JULY 2017 AJGINTERNATIONAL.COM ARTHUR J. GALLAGHER 4
Significant CPRI market changes are summarised below:
AEGIS
Kristof DeBeule joins as a Credit Analyst from Mizuho Bank. Matthew Proudman joins as an Underwriting Assistant from the Russo-British Chamber of Commerce.
AIG
Sumeet Berry has joined AIG as Director of AIG’s Structured Credit Product from Credit Suisse where he was formerly a Director within the Credit Risk Management Emerging Markets team. Emma Harris has moved into the Structured Credit team as a Specialist Underwriter from her previous role as a Credit Analyst. Max Hull has joined the Political Risk team as a Senior Underwriter from Ironshore.
ANVIL ONE
Navaid Farooq has started an AXA backed MGA.
ARGENTA
Holly Din has joined from Atradius to assume the role of Deputy Underwriter for the Political Risk account.
ASCOT
Ray Antes joins from AIG as an Executive Underwriter for the political risk team.
ASPEN
Cheryl Quah joined the Aspen team in Singapore in early August as an Underwriter, Cheryl was previously with XL Catlin.
ATRADIUS
Gary Geller has been appointed as the new London underwriting team head for the Atradius Special Products Unit. He joins after 17yrs at Credit Agricole.
BRIT
Elena Rodriguez joins the team from Amlin.
CHAUCER
Have recently announced the approval of its Dublin company paper. This will enable them to write business that does not fall within the Lloyd’s parameters, primarily sovereign lending, non-trade credit and acquisition finance. Tenors and line size will mirror the existing Lloyd’s paper. It is rated A by S&P.
EVEREST
Joe Martin has joined the team from Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (MUFG) where he was a Director responsible for originating and structuring export credit and multilateral agency backed cross-border business. Joe will be based in New York. With this key hire Everest are now able to offer credit coverage on Project Finance structures.
FIDELIS
Dominic Tillyard has joined the team from SwissRe.
LIBERTY
Alexandra Paton has joined the team from Equinox and will assume the role of Head of Continental Europe. Alex Egnell has relocated from Paris, where he was Head of Continental Europe, to New York where he will be head of the team’s newly established North American operation. In London, Sam Wilde has been appointed as Senior Underwriter, joining from Deutsche Bank where he was a Director in the Structured Commodity Trade Finance team. Ryan Murphy has joined as Assistant Underwriter.
NEON
Further enhancing their capabilities Neon are now able to offer a 14 year tenor on secured aviation financing. In addition Anthony Vaughan joins Neon in September as a Senior Credit Analyst. Anthony is CFA qualified and has been working as a Senior Credit Analyst with SMBC since 2006. With this hire Neon anticipate offering the Financial Guarantee (FG) product from Q3 2017.
NEXUS CIFS
Nexus have purchased the Lloyd’s coverholder, Equinox.
XL CATLIN
Marvin Azzopardi has been appointed as Senior Underwriter to establish a Political Risk, Credit & Bond presence in Canada. Azzopardi joins from Zurich where he held a similar role. Maria Duhart has joined as Head of Commercial Bond based in New Jersey, USA. Duhart was previously at Nationwide.
ARTHUR J. GALLAGHER AJGINTERNATIONAL.COM LONDON CPRI MARKET UPDATE FOR JULY 2017 5
MARKET DATAThe following data has been compiled by Arthur J. Gallagher from information provided by each insurer to summarise the recent changes in the credit and political risk insurance market.
LONDON CPRI MARKET UPDATE FOR JULY 2017 AJGINTERNATIONAL.COM ARTHUR J. GALLAGHER 6
Insurer:
‘Lloyd’s Markets’ [All Lloyd’s Markets rated A+ by S&P]
Project Risks (PR)
Trade Risks Political (CF)
Trade Risks Commercial (CR)
Non Trade
(FG)
Total max per
risk (MUSD)
Max Tenor (years)
Total max per
risk (MUSD)
Max Tenor (years)
Total max per
risk (MUSD)
Max Tenor (years)
Total max per risk (MUSD)
Max Tenor (years)
Acappella Syn 2014
15 10 15 10 10 5 0 0
AEGIS Syn 1225
20 10 20 10 10 7 10 7
Antares Syn 1274
40 10 40 10 20 7 20 7
AMTRUST Syn 1861/ 5820
25 7 25 7 10 5 0 0
Argenta Syn 2121
20 7 20 7 20 5 0 0
Argo Syn 1200
30 10 30 10 20 7 20 7
Ark Syn 4020
20 7 20 7 0 0 0 0
Ascot**** Syn 1414
25 7 25 7 7 5 0 0
Aspen* Syn 4711
60 15 60 15 60 8 60 8
AWAC (LAU)* Syn 2232
25 7 25 7 25 7 25 7
Barbican Syn 1955
15 5 15 5 10 5 0 0
Beazley Syn 623/2623
50 10 50 10 30 10 0 0
BRIT Syn 2987
30 10 30 10 30 10 30 8
Channel* Syn 2015
52 15 52 15 35 7 35 5
Chaucer Syn 1084
30 10 30 10 15 7 0 0
Chubb* Syn 2488
150 15 100 15 25 5 0 0
CNA Hardy Syn 382
25 7 25 7 15 5 0 0
Endurance* Syn 5151
25 7 25 7 25 7 0 0
Liberty Syn Mgmt* Syn 4472
100 15 100 15 100 10 0 0
Markel International*** Syn 3000
30 7 50 7 100 7 20 7
MAP Syn 2791
20 3 20 3 0 0 0 0
MS Amlin Syn 2001
40 7 40 7 10 5 0 0
Nexus CIFS Syn 4472/2001/1955/5678
20 5 20 7 20 5 0 0
Neon** Syn 2468
40 10 40 10 30 10 0 0
COMMERCIAL MARKET OVERVIEW
ARTHUR J. GALLAGHER AJGINTERNATIONAL.COM LONDON CPRI MARKET UPDATE FOR JULY 2017 7
* Totals do not ‘double count’ the Company and Lloyd’s lines of Aspen, AWAC, Chubb, Endurance, Liberty, Markel, Starr, Tokio Marine HCC and XL Catlin that can be written via either their Company or Lloyd’s syndicate
** Neon can write up to 14 years on Secured Aviation Finance, as well as 15yrs on Multilateral/ECA reinsurance
***Markel can write up to 12 years for ECA/Multilateral business
****Ascot are able to write up to 15 years for ECA/Multilateral business (CF/PR)
*****WRB can write up to 10 years for ECA/Multilateral business.
Novae Syn 2007
50 10 50 10 30 10 50 7
Pembroke Syn 4000
15 10 15 10 15 7 0 0
QBE Syn 1036
20 5 20 5 0 0 0 0
Sompo Canopius Syn 4444/958
25 7 25 7 12 7 12 7
The Standard Syndicate Syn 1884
15 5 15 5 7 5 0 0
Starr* Syn 1919
35 7 35 7 0 0 0 0
StarStone Syn 1301
5 3 0 0 0 0 0 0
Tokio Marine HCC* Syn 4141
50 10 50 10 50 7 0 0
Tokio Marine Kiln Syn 510
60 5 40 5 40 5 0 0
Talbot Syn 1183
50 10 50 10 20 7 10 7
WR Berkley***** Syn 1967
15 7 15 7 4 5 0 0
XL Catlin* Syn 2003
200 15 150 20 150 15 100 10
Total: ‘Lloyd’s Markets’ Jul 2017
1,452 1% 1,342 1% 955 0% 392 8%
Total: Jan 2017 1,439 1,334 951 362
Insurer:
‘Lloyd’s Markets’ [All Lloyd’s Markets rated A+ by S&P]
Project Risks (PR)
Trade Risks Political (CF)
Trade Risks Commercial (CR)
Non Trade
(FG)
Total max per
risk (MUSD)
Max Tenor (years)
Total max per
risk (MUSD)
Max Tenor (years)
Total max per
risk (MUSD)
Max Tenor (years)
Total max per risk (MUSD)
Max Tenor (years)
COMMERCIAL MARKET OVERVIEW (CONTD.)
LONDON CPRI MARKET UPDATE FOR JULY 2017 AJGINTERNATIONAL.COM ARTHUR J. GALLAGHER 8
Insurer:
‘Company Markets’
Project Risks (PR)
Trade Risks
Political (CF)
Trade Risks Commercial (CR)
Non Trade
(Unsecured)
Rating(s)
Total max per
risk (MUSD)
Max Tenor (years)
Total max per
risk (MUSD)
Max Tenor (years)
Total max per
risk (MUSD)
Max Tenor (years)
Total max per risk (MUSD)
Max Tenor (years)
AIG 150 15 150 15 100 5 100 10 A+ [S&P]
Anvil 25 7 25 7 15 5 25 7AA- [S&P/Fitch] Aa3 [Moody’s]
Aspen* 100 15 100 15 100 8 100 8 A [S&P]
Atradius 20 3 150 7 150 7 0 0A [A.M. Best]
Axis 50 10 50 10 50 10 50 10 A+ [S&P]
Chaucer 30 7 30 7 15 7 0 0 A [S&P]
Chubb* 150 15 100 15 25 5 100 10 AA [S&P]
Coface 110 10 110 10 110 10 10 5 AA- [Fitch]
Credendo ECA 50 15 50 15 50 10 0 0 AA [S&P]
Channel (SCOR UK)
35 10 35 10 35 7 35 5AA- [S&P]
Endurance 40 7 40 7 40 7 40 7 A [S&P]
Euler Hermes 80 15 80 10 80 8 30 5 AA- [S&P]
Everest 150 15 150 15 50 7 50 7 A+ [S&P]
FCIA 25 7 80 7 80 7 0 0 A+ [S&P]
Fidelis 125 15 125 15 115 15 115 15 A- [AM Best]
Credendo Single Risk
27 7 27 7 27 7 10 5A- [Fitch/ AM Best]
Ironshore 40 7 40 7 40 7 40 7 A [S&P]
Lancashire 200 10 75 10 0 0 0 0 A-[S&P]
AWAC (LAU)* 25 7 25 7 25 7 25 7A [A.M. Best]
Liberty Mutual 100 15 100 10 100 10 100 7 A [S&P]
Markel 30 7 50 7 150 7 20 7A/A+ [S&P/
Fitch]
Sovereign 80 15 80 15 0 0 80 15AA [S&P/
Fitch]
Starr International
50 10 50 10 0 0 50 10A [A.M. Best]
Swiss Re 75 10 75 10 200 5 0 0A+ [A.M.
Best]
Tokio Marine HCC***
50 10 50 10 50 7 50 10AA- [S&P/
Fitch]
XLCatlin 200 15 150 20 150 15 100 10A+ [S&P/
Fitch]
Zurich 150 15 150 15 75 5 0 0AA- [S&P/
Fitch]
Total: ‘Company Markets’ Jul
2017
2,167 -1% 2,147 3% 1,832 3% 1,130 -5%
Total: Jan 2017 2,187.0 2,087 1,772 1,190
COMMERCIAL MARKET OVERVIEW
ARTHUR J. GALLAGHER AJGINTERNATIONAL.COM LONDON CPRI MARKET UPDATE FOR JULY 2017 9
Available Market Capacity - July 2017
(Total possible maximum million USD per risk)
Project Risks (PR) Trade Risks Political (CF)
Trade Risks Commercial (CR)
Financial Guarantee (FG)**
Lloyd’s 1,452 1,342 955 392
Company 2,167 2,147 1,832 1,130
Total: Jul 2017* 2,879 -1.3% 2,829 1.4% 2,202 1.1% 1,283 0.0%
Total: Jan 2017* 2,916 2,791 2,178 1,247
Notes:
* Totals do not ‘double count’ the Company and Lloyd’s lines of Aspen, AWAC, Chaucer, Chubb, Endurance, Liberty, Markel, Starr, Tokio Marine HCC and XL Catlin that can be written via either their Company or Lloyd’s syndicate
**For non trade business, typically a minimum obligor rating of investment grade or equivalent is required
*** HCC are able to underwrite 12 year tenors for CF and PR for ECA business.
AVAILABLE MARKET CAPACITY – JULY 2017
(Total possible maximum million USD per risk)
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
CAPA
CIT
Y
Project Risks (PR)
Trade Risks Political (CF)
Trade Risks Commercial (CR)
Financial Guarantee (FG)**
Lloyd’s Company
2,167 2,147
1,832
1,130
1,4521,347
955
392
RISK TYPE
AVAILABLE MARKET CAPACITY – JULY 2017
LONDON CPRI MARKET UPDATE FOR JULY 2017 AJGINTERNATIONAL.COM ARTHUR J. GALLAGHER 10
TOTAL CAPACITY AVAILABLE BY TENOR – JULY 2017
(Total possible maximum million USD per risk)
Max Tenor (years)
Project Risks (PR)
Trade Risks Political (CF)
Trade Risks Commercial (CR)
Non Trade (FG)
20 0 150,000,000 0 0
15 1,452,000,000 1,172,000,000 265,000,000 195,000,000
10 2,347,000,000 1,272,000,000 735,000,000 645,000,000
7 2,699,000,000 2,142,000,000 1,634,000,000 1,197,000,000
5 2,829,000,000 2,719,000,000 2,202,000,000 1,282,000,000
3(1) 2,874,000,000 2,809,000,000 2,202,000,000 1,282,000,000
(Total possible maximum million USD per risk)
3 5 7 10 15 20
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
CAPA
CIT
Y
TENOR AVAILABLE (YEARS)
Project Risks (PR)Trade Risks Political (CF)Trade Risks Commercial (CR)Non Trade (FG)
2,874 2,8292,719
2,699
2,142
1,634
1,197
2,347
1,2721,452
1,172
265195 150
735645
2,809
2,202 2,202
1,282 1,282
ARTHUR J. GALLAGHER AJGINTERNATIONAL.COM LONDON CPRI MARKET UPDATE FOR JULY 2017 11
(Total possible maximum million USD per risk)
September 2001 to July 2017
Project Risks (PR)
Sep-01
Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
Jul- 16
Jan- 17
Jul- 17
Lloyd's 574 274 278 280 318 335 368 423 478 593 633 622 762 913 1,035 1,285 1,380 1,439 1,452
Company 580 564 495 495 470 490 515 660 840 920 865 1,015 1,285 1,493 1,618 1,974 2,059 2,187 2,167
Total 1,154 837 773 775 788 825 883 1,083 1,238 1,348 1,293 1,382 1,688 2,016 2,123 2,659 2,744 2,916 2,879
Trade Risks Political (CF)
Sep-01
Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
Jul- 16
Jan-17
Jul- 17
Lloyd's 389 188 203 195 239 256 297 347 381 502 560 545 695 845 1,035 1,350 1,350 1,334 1,342
Company 268 331 318 318 310 405 440 530 720 800 865 1,085 1,247 1,360 1,615 1,954 1,984 2,087 2,147
Total 657 519 520 513 549 661 737 877 1,041 1,157 1,240 1,420 1,607 1,885 2,155 2,609 2,634 2,791 2,829
Trade Risks Commercial (CR)
Sep-01
Jan- 02
Jan- 03
Jan- 04
Jan- 05
Jan- 06
Jan- 07
Jan- 08
Jan- 09
Jan- 10
Jan- 11
Jan- 12
Jan- 13
Jan- 14
Jan- 15
Jan- 16
Jul- 16
Jan- 17
Jul- 17
Lloyd's - - 73 87 79 103 167 208 251 346 353 338 455 544 703 873 933 951 955
Company - - 195 185 175 255 255 335 420 500 550 820 987 1,080 1,405 1,549 1,704 1,797 1,832
Total - - 268 242 254 358 422 543 641 731 768 998 1,177 1,379 1,758 2,002 2,117 2,178 2,202
Notes:
Totals do not ‘double count’ the Lloyd’s and Company lines of Aspen, AWAC, Channel, Chaucer, Chubb, Endurance, Liberty, Markel, Starr, Tokio Marine HCC and XL Catlin that can be written via either their Lloyd’s syndicate or Company.
AVAILABLE MARKET CAPACITY COMPARISON
LONDON CPRI MARKET UPDATE FOR JULY 2017 AJGINTERNATIONAL.COM ARTHUR J. GALLAGHER 12
Country Risk is a composite index used to gauge and compare the overall stability of a country. The index assesses the implications associated with potential changes to the country’s political, economic and business environment. It takes into consideration factors that could affect both long term as well as the short term prospects. The global average sits at 53.1.
The following pages monitor changes in Country Risk Ratings, compiled by BMI Research, of various Emerging Markets. We compare Country Risk Ratings as at 1st January 2017 with those at the time of publication of this Market Report. These countries have been selected from the International Monetary Fund’s World Economic Outlook for Emerging and Developing Economies.
Risk Rating Risk Description
80-100 Negligible
70-79 Very Low
60-69 Low
50-59 Moderate
40-49 High
<40 Very High
Sub-Sahara Africa
Country Risk IndexGlobal Rank at 01 Jul 2017
at 01 Jan 2017 at 01 Jul 2017 Net Change in Risk
Burkina Faso 44.0 44.0 161
Côte d'Ivoire 51.5 49.7 127
Democratic Republic of Congo
30.9 31.1 193
Ghana 55.4 55.9 91
Kenya 48.4 48.3 140
Liberia 39.6 40.3 176
Nigeria 47.7 45.9 151
Sierra Leone 42.4 42.7 167
South Africa 56.8 56.1 90
Tanzania 49.6 48.8 137
EMERGING MARKETS COUNTRY RISK RATINGS
ARTHUR J. GALLAGHER AJGINTERNATIONAL.COM LONDON CPRI MARKET UPDATE FOR JULY 2017 13
Asia Pacific
Country Risk IndexGlobal Rank at 01 Jul 2017
at 01 Jan 2017 at 01 Jul 2017 Net Change in Risk
Cambodia 51.6 50.6 117
China 68.5 68.2 39
India 63.5 62.2 62
Indonesia 63.5 63.5 55
Laos 48.6 48.6 139
Pakistan 47.7 47.3 146
Papua New Guinea 44.8 43.3 165
Philippines 62.8 62.4 60
Thailand 65.4 65.5 46
Vietnam 63.3 63.9 53
Europe and CIS
Country Risk IndexGlobal Rank at 01 Jul 2017
at 01 Jan 2017 at 01 Jul 2017 Net Change in Risk
Belarus 50.6 49.7 126
Czech Republic 73.6 75.0 22
Greece 55.9 57.9 79
Kazakhstan 60.2 60.2 66
Kyrgyzstan 43.6 44.8 157
Poland 70.6 71.5 30
Romania 64.3 64.6 49
Russia 61.3 61.1 64
Slovakia 70.8 71.6 29
Ukraine 44.8 43.5 164
EMERGING MARKETS COUNTRY RISK RATINGS
LONDON CPRI MARKET UPDATE FOR JULY 2017 AJGINTERNATIONAL.COM ARTHUR J. GALLAGHER 14
Latin America and Caribbean
Country Risk IndexGlobal Rank at 01 Jul 2017
at 01 Jan 2017 at 01 Jul 2017 Net Change in Risk
Argentina 53.9 53.2 104
Bolivia 49.3 48.8 138
Brazil 58.0 57.0 84
Colombia 58.7 58.8 73
Dominican Republic 54.4 54.0 100
Ecuador 51.4 51.5 114
Guatemala 48.2 48.3 141
Nicaragua 46.2 46.5 148
Peru 60.3 60.0 68
Venezuela 32.8 34.8 187
Middle East and North Africa
Country Risk IndexGlobal Rank at 01 Jul 2017
at 01 Jan 2017 at 01 Jul 2017 Net Change in Risk
Algeria 51.3 50.2 121
Bahrain 58.8 57.8 80
Egypt 48.7 48.9 133
Kuwait 63.5 63.3 56
Lebanon 50.4 50.1 122
Libya 31.9 31.0 194
Saudi Arabia 62.2 62.4 61
Tunisia 51.3 50.6 116
United Arab Emirates 70.8 70.8 32
Yemen 23.0 22.4 200
EMERGING MARKETS COUNTRY RISK RATINGS
ARTHUR J. GALLAGHER AJGINTERNATIONAL.COM LONDON CPRI MARKET UPDATE FOR JULY 2017 15
LondonMark GubbinsChairmanT +44 (0)20 3425 3194E [email protected]
Matthew SolleyManaging DirectorT +44 (0)20 7204 6175E [email protected]
Credit, Political and Project RisksDavid EvansExecutive DirectorT +44 (0)20 7204 6156E [email protected]
Rupert MorganExecutive DirectorT +44 (0)20 3425 3199E [email protected]
Nick OllerenshawExecutive DirectorT +44 (0)20 7234 4255E [email protected]
Rupert BoyleExecutive DirectorT +44 (0)20 7234 4207E [email protected]
Terrorism and Political Violence
Crisis Management
Pamela FoxDivisional DirectorT +44 (0)20 3425 3192E [email protected]
Paul BassettManaging DirectorT +44 (0)20 3425 3417E [email protected]
Justin PriestleyDirectorT +44 (0)20 3425 3427E [email protected]
Steve DalchowDirectorT +44 (0)20 7560 3020E [email protected]
SingaporeSarah GulstonDivisional Director T +65 6422 7439E [email protected]
AustraliaMichael WoodwardDivisional Manager, SydneyT +61 2 9242 2003E [email protected]
Racheal TumeltyGeneral Manager, PerthT +61 8 9363 7742E [email protected]
Gary McNallyAppointed RepresentativeT +61 2 9242 2087E [email protected]
New YorkMarc Wagman Managing DirectorNorth American Trade Credit and Political Risks T +1 973 921 8461 E [email protected]
Gabe ManskyArea Executive Vice PresidentNorth American Trade Credit and Political Risks T +1 212 994 7068E [email protected]
BRIM - Stockholm / DubaiFredrik EnderleinStockholmT +46 8 441 89 88E [email protected]
Karl LundellDubai (rep office)T +971 435 20140E [email protected]
CONTACTS
NOTES
LONDON CPRI MARKET UPDATE FOR JULY 2017 AJGINTERNATIONAL.COM ARTHUR J. GALLAGHER 18
Arthur J. Gallagher
Walbrook OfficeThe Walbrook Building25 WalbrookLondonEC4N 8AW
Tel: +44 (0) 20 7204 6000Fax: +44 (0) 20 7204 6001
www.ajginternational.com
The information contained in this CPRI Report and Market Update has been compiled by Arthur J. Gallagher (UK) Limited from information provided by each insurer. The figures expressed reflect the theoretical maximum possible lines available which are dependent upon many underwriting factors including the nature of the risk, the country of risk and available country capacity at the time which may reduce the amount of capacity actually available and is subject to change without notice.
CPRI Report and Market Update does not purport to be comprehensive or to give legal advice. While every effort has been made to ensure accuracy, Arthur J. Gallagher (UK) Limited cannot be held liable for any errors, omissions or inaccuracies contained within the document. Readers should not act upon (or refrain from acting upon) information in this document without first taking further specialist or professional advice.
Arthur J. Gallagher (UK) Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Registered Office: The Walbrook Building, 25 Walbrook, London EC4N 8AW. Registered in England and Wales. Company Number: 1193013. www.ajginternational.com