report no. 5616-jm public disclosure ... - the world bank · its contents may not otherwise be...

Report No. 5616-JM

Jamaica: Economic Situation andPublic Investment(In Two Volumes) Volume l: Economic NoteApril 18, 1985

Latin America and the Caribbean Regional Office

FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY

Document of the World Bank

This report has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipientsonly in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwisebe disclosed without World Bank authorization.

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CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS

Currency Unit = Jamaican Dollar (J$)

Through April 1977 US$1.000 = J$0.909 J$1.000 = US$1.100April 1977 - May 1978 - Dual exchange rate system -May 1978 US$1.000 = J$1.550 J$1.000 = US$0.645December 1978 US$1.000 = J$1.695 J$1.000 = US$J.590May 1979 - Jan. 1983 US$1.000 = J$1.781 J$1.000 = US$0.561Jan. 1983 - Nov. 1983

Official Rate: US$1.000 = J$1.781 J$1.000 = US$0.561Parallel Rate: US$1.000 = J$2.40-2.80 J$1.000 = US$0.357-0.417

Nov. 1983 - Nov. 1984Floating ba7nd system: US$1.000 = J$4.00-4.30 J$1.000 = US$0.233-0.250

Nov. 1984 - *resentFree flo'ting auction US$1.000 = J$5.46 J$1.000 = US$0.183

FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY

ABSTRACT

This brief report describes recent economic developments inJamaica, analyses economic reform issues, and assesses prospects for 1985and the rest of the decade. Particular attention is paid to short-termfinancing needs as a result of the recent deterioration in export prospectsfor bauxite and alumina. While some good progress has been made in 1984,major adjustment efforts will be necessary over the coming five years, andthe outlook portrayed is a very difficult one for Jamaica, which willrequire strong economic management, and considerable external support. Themajor issues facing the Government at the present time are the need torestore fiscal balance following the loss of bauxite levy revenue, and, forthe same reason, management of the balance of payments.

This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance oftheir official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.

This report is in two volumes. The first volume is an attempt ata new style of report aimed primarily for the Caribbean Group for EconomicCooperation and Development. It was not based on an economic mission butrather on the cumulative economic work of the Bank. It was prepared byPeter Harrold (Country Economist). Volume Two presents the results of apublic sector investment review mission carried out in November 1984,consisting of Constance Bernard (Mission Chief), Polly Jones (Economist),Peter Harrold (Economist), Otto Raggambi (Highways Engineer), Robert Panfil(Transport Economist), Aurelio Cespedes (Education Specialist), Jose Andreu(Health Economist), Leonard Jordan (Agricultural Economist), and EmiliaGomez-Fernandini (Technical Assistance Specialist).

JAMAICA ECONOMIC SITUATION AND PUBLIC INVESTMENT

VOLUME ONE: ECONOMIC NOTE

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Page No.

COUNTRY DATA

SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS ................................... i-ii

I. RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS ............ 1..................

A. Background ............................. ............... 1B. Output and Expenditure ... ............................. 1C. Public Finances ....................................... 2D. Trade and the Balance of Payments ... .................. 2E. Money, Credit and Prices .... .......................... 3

II. DEVELOPMENTISSUESANDPOLICYREFORM..... .. 5

A. Introduction ..................... 5B. Issues/Reform Matrix .................................. 6

III. SHORT TERM FINANCING NEEDS ..... ........................... 10

A. Balance of Payments Needs ............................. 10B. Financing the Public Sector Investment Program ........ 14

IV. PROSPECTS FOR THE ECONOMY TO 1990 .......................... 18

STATISTICAL APPENDIX

MAP

Page I of 2 pages

axwur DATA - JAMAICA

AREA POFUI.ATKN IEIIsY11,424 km2 2.18 million (mid-1984) 191 per km2

Rate of Grwth: 1.1% (fran 1970 to 1982) 427 per km2 of arable lanl

POPULA,TI CN CARACLTISTICS (1983) HEALH 1981Crude Birth Rate (per 1,000) 24.8 Population per physician 3523Crude Death Rate (per 1,000) 5.7 Population per Iespital bed 263Infant Mortality (per 1,000 ive births) 16.8

INCC4E DISTRIBLIICN DISBUICN( OF IAND OWERSHIP (1978-79)% of national incame, higbest quintile 61.2 % owned by top 10% of owners 64.0

l]west quintile 2.2 % aoned by bottcn 10% of awners 1.8

AOMESS To PIPED wAT (1975) ACCESS TO ELEiClICrr! (1980)% of population - urban 100.0 % of population - urban 100.0

- rural 79.0 - rural) 92.0

NUnlUITION (1977) EDUCATION (1978-80)Calorie intake as % of requirements 118.0 Adult literacy rate % 90.0Per capita protein irtake 69.0 Primary sctool enrollnent % 99.0

GNP PER CAPITA in 1984a/: US$1200

GROSS NATIONAL PRODJCI IN 1983 A?NIAL RAIE OF GUM (%, constant prices)

US$ Mli % 1970-75 1975-80 1981-83

GNP at Market Prices 2B74 100.0 1.7 -3.0 1.7Gross Daoestic Investment 699 24.3 -2.9 -16.3 8.7Gross National Savirgs 243 8.5 4.3 -9.0 16.2Qarrent Acouat Balane -456 -15.9Exports of Goods, NFS 1264 44.0 0.2 -1.4 0.6Tnports of Goods, NFS 1667 58.0 1.4 -8.3 2.0

WUIUT, IAB0R FORCE ANDPRoIucVY IN 1983

(1983) (1981) (1981)Value Added Labor Force C/ V.A. Per Worker

US$ Mln. % '000 % US$ %Agriculture 20B 6.6 0.266 29.5 782 22.5Mining 130 4.1 0.00B 0.9 16,250 467.4Marufacturing 592 18.9 0.119 13.2 4975 143.1Otber 2210 70.4 0.510 56.4 4333 124.6

Total/Average 3140 100.0 0.903 100.0 3477

GWOVIEPT FINANCECentral Goveruaent

(J$ Mln.) % of GDP

Current Receipts 1749 29.6urrent Expenditure 2420 32.1

Current Surplus/Deficit -672 -2.5Capital Expenditures 538 5.2External Assistance (net) 370 6.3

a/ World Atlas method.b/ Total labor force; unemployed are allocated to sector of their normal occupation.

not availablernot applicable

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CUNTRY DATA - JAMAICA

MiNEY, CREDIT and PRICES 1975 1978 1980 1983(Million J$ outstandingend period)

Mcney and Quasi Money 799.3 1213.3 1687.3 3259.6Bark Credit to Public Sector 253.8 935.1 1713.0 3169.1Bank Credit to Private Sector 606.8 617.3 872.4 2025.6

(Percentages or Ilnex Numbers)

Money and Quasi Money as x of GDP 30.8 32.5 35.6 48.3General Price Index (1964 = 100) '111.8 206.9 319.5 415.3

Annual percentage danges in:General Price Index 17.4 35.0 28.2 11.3Bank credit to Public Sector 106.9 34.6 30.7 28.5Bank credit to Private Sector 12.8 18.3 18.8 27.0

BAlANCE OF PAXMENIS MERCHANDISE EXPORTS (AVERAGE 1981-83)

1979 1981 1983 US$ Mln. %(Millions US$)

Exports 815 974 686 Bauxite/Alumina 565.9 70.0Imports 994 1457 1281 Sugar 51.0 6.3Resource Gap (deficit = -) -179 -483 -595 Bananas 5.3 0.6Norr-Factor Services (net) 124 148 274 All other cnmrndities 186.8 23.1Factor Services (net) -167 -165 -236 Total 809.0 100.0Transfers (net) 80 124 102

Current Account Balance -143 -375 -456 EXIERNAL DEBT, MARCH 31, 1984Public Capital (net) 71 240 321 US$ Mln.Other Capital (net) -70 54 -183

Goverrment Debt, incl. guaranteed 1980Capital Acount 1 294 138 Bank of Jamaica Debt 1011

Total Outstanlixg & Disbursed 2991Change in Reserves

(- = Increase) 142 81 318Net International Reserves -457 -609 -828 DEBT SERVICE RATIO for 1983 a/

Public Debt, inml. guaranteed 57.8Non-Guaranteed Private Debt

RATE OF EXCRAN.E IBRD/IDA IZ%DIW3, September 30, 1984 (US$ Mln.)

May 1979 to January 1983 IBED IDAUS$1.00 = J$1.781

J$1.OO = US$0.561 Outstarding & Disbursed 398.0 -

Nov. 1984 to Present UIxlisbursed 157.1 -

US$1.00 = J$5.46 Outstanding incl. Undisbursed 555.1 -

J$1.00 = US$0.183

a/ Ratio of Debt Service to Exports of Gools anl Non-Factor Services.

not availablenot applicable

Summary and Conclusions

i. The performance of the Jamaican economy improved substantially in1984, as adjustment began to be implemented after a two-year period whenthe targets of stabilization policies had not been achieved. The two mainareas of action in 1984 were the balance of payments and the fiscaldeficit. The current account deficit on the balance of payments was cut byabout 30% in 1984, because of some export recovery, and a declining levelof imports in response to heavy devaluations. Together with an improvedcapital account, this permitted an improvement in net internationalreserves of US$186 million. However, this has served primarily toeliminate arrears which had been accumulated during the previous year.

ii. Preliminary estimates indicate that the fiscal deficit has beencut from 16.5% of GDP to 7.8% of GDP in FY1984/85. Revenues rose as aresult of the devaluation and the subsequent inflation, while expenditureshave been constrained. GDP registered small positive growth in 1984,primarily because of good performance in agriculture and tourism. However,domestic expenditures fell, and there was a decline in investment of 12%.

iii. The exchange rate has been a major instrument of adjustment, andthis has depreciated from an average of J$2.15=US$1.00 in 1983 to aboutJ$4.0=US$1.00 on average for 1984, ending the year at over J$5.00. Thishas been accompanied by a rapid increase in inflation, and the consumerprice index rose by 31% in 1984. With above average increases beingrecorded for food and utilities, and with wage increases averaging onlyabout 15%, the impact of the adjustment program on the poor appears to havebeen severe.

iv. It had been hoped that the adjustment efforts carried out in 1984would have permitted some relaxation in 1985 and a resumption of growth.However, early in 1985 prospects for bauxite/alumina exports deterioratedwith the fallout of special sales, and the temporary closure of the ALCOAalumina plant. Gross earnihgs from bauxite/alumina are expected to declineby about US$200 million in 1985. This will inevitably result in anothersevere austerity program for 1985/86, which will have to include furtherfiscal measures and a tight monetary program to reduce demand for foreignexchange. Thus, a decline in GDP in 1985 seems unavoidable.

v. The 1985/86 program will require the mobilization of substantialexternal financial support. If the full loss of foreign exchange earningswere to be absorbed in 1985/86, and with amortization payments of US$400million due that year, gross inflows of US$614 million would be required.Most of this has already been identified (although confirmation will benecessary). This will require some further rescheduling of debt, includingmaturities to Paris Club donors, commercial banks, and certain non-ParisClub creditors. If a substantial decline in non-bauxite GDP is to beavoided, an additional estimated US$86 million would have to be raised, butsuch additional funding should only be sought on highly concessional terms.

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vi. After 1986, it is projected that some real growth could beresumed, albeit at the modest rate of about 2% per annum. Throughout theperiod, consumption expenditures would have to be constrained, and livingstandards cannot be expected to improve in the short term. The majorsource of future growth is expected to come from nontraditional exportsoutside CARICOM of manufactured goods and agricultural products, which areprojected to grow by up to 20% a year. Even with the deficit on thecurrent account of the balance of payments declining, high levels of grossfinancing will be required as amortization payments will continue at thelevel of about US$400 million per annum. Given this, it is likely thatcontinued recourse to rescheduling will be necessary, and it is recommendedthat Jamaica should seek to reschedule principal payments on a multi-yearbasis. Debt service payments are expected to average over 40% of exportsof goods and services (before rescheduling). Given this scenario, it isnecessary that the net public capital inflow should be sought primarilyfrom concessional and extended repayment sources, and for the time being,Jamaica can only be considered creditworthy for very limited net increasesin commercial lending.

vii. The overall policy environment has undergone major chanages in thelast three years. It will be necessary for the economic reform program tobe pursued vigorously over the coming period. Particular attention shouldbe paid to reducing the level of public consumption, restructuring theexternal tariff system, reforming and revitalizing the financial sector,and addressing the problems of the bauxite/alumina sector, as we:Ll ascontinuing programs already started such as those concerned with the publicenterprises and administrative reform. Given the likely impact of theprojected GDP scenario and fiscal program on unemployment, Government willneed to determine ways in which labor-utilizing activities can beencouraged.

I. RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS

A. Background

1. Recent economic developments in Jamaica have to be seen againstthe background of a Stand-By arrangement between the Government of Jamaicaand the International Monetary Fund which covered the fiscal year April 1,1984 to March 31, 1985. The previous Extended Arrangement, which was tohave lasted until March 1984, was abandoned in October 1983 followingnon-compliance with certain performance criteria, as a result of a too slowpace of adjustment in that fiscal year, coupled with shortfalls in theprojected level of bauxite/alumina exports. In fact, the final outturn forthat year showed an overall Central Government deficit of 16.5% of GDP,compared with a target of 10.5% of GDP, and an overall balance of paymentsdeficit of US$306 million, compared with a programmed surplus of US$125million.

2. Consequently, the FY1984/85 stabilization program had to providefor considerable "catching-up" for the failures of the two previous fiscalyears. The three cornerstones of the program were:

(a) a reduction in the overall Central Government deficit from16.5% of GDP in 1983/84 to about 7.8% of GDP in 1984/85through a combination of expenditure cuts and revenuemeasures;

(b) an overall balance of payments surplus of US$283 million,which would be sufficient to eliminate arrears and generateliquid reserves equivalent to five weeks of non-bauxitesector imports. This was to be achieved primarily throughexchange rate adjustments under the foreign exchange auctionsystem in place since November 1983; and

(c) a restriction in the growth of credit to the private sectorof 12% in FY1984/85, compared to 30% in 1983/84.

3. It can therefore be seen that this amounted to a considerabledegree of austerity, and together with the ongoing structural adjustmentprogram, sought to create a foundation for future development. As will beseen, 1984 was in many ways a successful year for Jamaica, albeit at thecost of a severe impact on standards of living. Despite these efforts,Jamaica's future prospects remain very uncertain (see paragraphs 24-29).

B. Output and Expenditure

4. Despite the adjustment program, GDP is estimated to haveregistered a small growth rate of 0.5% in 1984, the fourth consecutive yearof modest growth in Jamaica. While most sectors showed little change orsmall declines, both the tourism sector and the agricultural sectorregistered impressive gains. Agriculture grew by 8.2% and this can be

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attributed to import substitution in response to the devaluation, and someincrease in nontraditional exports fostered by the Government's AGRO21program, which seeks to identify private investors for a set of projectsdesigned to utilize some 200,000 acres of idle agricultural land.

5. With average real incomes declining heavily in 1984, and withsevere credit restrictions, domestic expenditure fell in 1984. Publicinvestment was reduced by about 30% in real terms, and this contributed toan overall decline in investment of 12%. Consumption expenditures did notfall in 1984 1/ suggesting that some personal dissaving took place as realincomes were squeezed (Although preliminary figures suggest that inFY1984/85, consumption did decline).

C. Public Finances

6. Little improvement had been made in public finances prior to1984/85. However, a major effort has now been made, and it ispreliminarily estimated that the Central Government's overall deficit fellin 1984/85 to under 8% of GDP, a cut over 8% of GDP in one year. This wasachieved by holding down both current and capital expenditures whilerevenue rose by over 50% in response both to the devaluation and theconsequent inflation and certain revenue measures that were taken, althoughthese only accounted for about 25% of the increase. Current expendituresfell by about 12% in real terms, including a reduction in the CentralGovernment's labor force by some 4,000 posts, or about 4% of the civilservice. With the extraordinary level of external financing continuing,the Government's indebtedness to the domestic banking system fell by anestimated J$670 million or 7.5% of GDP.

D. Trade and the Balance of Payments

7. The exchange rate of the J$ against the US$ had averaged J$2.15 =

US$1.00 in 1983. In 1984 the rate is estimated to have averaged aboutJ$4.0 and stood at J$5.0 by the end of the year. The real devaluationsince the end of 1982 is of the order of 105% and this has had a majorimpact on export competitiveness and on import substitution industries,although these latter are being severely affected by the declining domesticmarket as incomes fall. Bauxite/alumina exports grew 13%, but this doesnot reflect any underlying improvement, but rather a new 1 million tonbarter contract, and shipment of inventories of Reynolds Mines, whichclosed its Jamaica operation in 1984. While traditional export cropsshowed no improvement, nontraditional exports outside Caricom performedstrongly, and grew by 20%. This is the first sign of such exports

1/ Private consumption is estimated as a residual. It is possible thateither the decline in investment or the GDP level have beenoverestimated, in which case the a more reasonable outcome of decliningor stagnant consumption would result.

responding to the structural adjustment program, and with ever-worseningprospects for traditional exports, further growth in nontraditionals isbecoming increasingly important. However, the Caricom market continued tosuffer from trade restrictions and payments problems, and exports toregional markets fell by almost 40%.

8. Although Jamaica is heavily import dependent, imports fell by 8%in 1984. They now stand 11% below the 1981 peak. While raw materials andcapital goods were maintained at similar levels to the previous year,imports of consumer goods and oil fell significantly in response to thedevaluation. After the consumer goods import boom of 1981 and 1982, suchimports have now returned to the levels of the late 1970s. However, anunknown level of informal sector imports of such goods has continued,albeit without call on official sources of foreign exchange.

9. With the tourism industry registering another impressive gain in1984, the current account deficit on the balance of payments fell by about30% to US$312 million. However, with GDP falling in US$ terms, this isequivalent to 14% of GDP, a level which continues to be unsustainable. Theinternational community has responded favorably to Jamaica's adjustmenteffort, and another very large net capital inflow was recorded. Thisincluded flows from a Paris Club rescheduling, and some additionalbilateral refinancing. Together with the current account improvement, thispermitted net international reserves to improve by US$186 million in 1984,following the deterioration by US$318 million in 1983. However,international indebtedness rose again to a level of US$3.1 billion(including liabilities to the IMF), debt servicing was equal to 54% ofexports of goods and nonfactor services, and with the devaluation, totaldebt now stands at the equivalent of 161% of GDP.

E. Money, Credit and Prices

10. The most immediate domestic impact of the devaluation has been onthe price level, which rose by 31.2% in 1984. Above average rises wereregistered by food, as subsidies were removed, housing and miscellaneousexpenses, which include water and electricity, whose prices more thandoubled over the 1983 level. With respect to food prices, Governmentattempted to mitigate the worst effects of the increases by theintroduction of a food stamp program to assist the poorest groups ofJamaican society.

11. The money and credit situation reflects the tight credit policyinstalled in January 1984. Loans and advances rose by only 12% in nominalterms in 1984, and this small increase was concentrated heavily inagriculture and manufacturing. Interest rates rose by 4-5 percentagepoints, with average lending rates at about 20% over the year. Whiledeposits continued to rise, the rate of increase declined substantially,and commercial banks' deposits fell by about 13% in real terms.

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Table 1: MAIN ECONOMIC INDICATORS 1981-84

Prel.1981 1982 1983 1984

GDP (% change) 3.3 0.0 1.8 0.5of which: Agriculture (3.3) (-7.9) (5.5) (8.2)

Manufacturing (0.6) (6.4) (1.9) (-5.2)Mining (1.3) (-29.0) (0.9) (-2.5)

Consumption (share of GDP in constantprices) 86.1 87.1 85.6 86.7Investment (share of GDP in constantprices) 17.2 18.5 18.3 16.0

Consumer Price Index (% change, endof period) 4.6 6.5 16.7 31.2

Central Govt. Current Revenuea/(% of GDP) 27.6 27.6 24.0 29.6

Central Govt. Current Expenditurea/(% of GDP) 32.0 32.6 33.2 32.1

Central Govt. Capital Expenditurea/(% of GDP) 12.0 11.4 7.5 5.2

Central Govt. Overall Deficita/(% of GDP) 16.4 16.4 16.5 7.8

Exports (US$ million) 974.0 767.4 685.7 738.7of which: Bauxite/Alumina (760.2) (513.8) (423.8) (501.7)

Sugar/Bananas (50.8) (54.0) (64.1) (48.2)Caricom (68.6) (78.5) (84.8) (50.9)Nontrads. outside Caricom (94.4) (121.1) (113.0) (137.9)

Imports (US$ million) 1457.4 1366.7 1267.8 1188.5of which: Consumer Goods (189.6) (230.0) (207.1) (154.1)

Balance of Payments Current Deficit -375.2 -387.9 -456.4 -311.7(US$ millions)

Balance of Payments Current Deficit 12.8 12.2 14.5 14.0(% of GDP)

Net Public Capital Inflow (% of GDP) 8.2 14.0 10.2 16.1Change in Reserves(-= increase: US$ million) 80.8 -88.2 308.1 -234.3

Net International Reserves(US$ million) -598.3 -510.1 -818.2 -583.9

Total External Debt (US$ million)b/ 2234 2718 2993 3120ebt Services as % of Exports of Goodsof NFS 28.2 35.5 51.3 49.4

a/ Figures shown are for the relevant fiscal year, i.e. 1984 figures arefor April, 1984 to March 31, 1985.

b/ Including reserve liabilities (mostly to IMF).

II. Development Issues and Policy Reform

A. Introduction

12. Since coming to power in October 1980, the present Government hasbeen endeavoring to change the policy environment in Jamaica, with thestated aim of reducing the role of the public sector, and creating aframework in which the private sector will develop rapidly with an exportoriented-outlook. Economic deregulation and export development can beregarded as the two key elements in the Government's strategy. Thestrategy has attracted a large measure of international support, includingprograms with the International Monetary Fund, bilateral balance ofpayments support, and three Structural Adjustment Loans (SALs) from theWorld Bank. The SALs were approved in March 1982, June 1983 and November1984, and were for a total of US$190 million. They have addressed policyissues in six areas: the trade and payments regime, savings andinvestment, industry, agriculture, public administration and energy. Theymust be seen as complementary to IMF supported stabilization programs,which address demand management issues, while the SALs address supplyissues. The stabilization programs, and the structural adjustment programsare inter-dependent: without appropriate stabilization policies, structuraladjustment programs will be frustrated by the unavailability of foreign anddomestic resources; without appropriate structural adjustment policies,stabilization policies will only lead to deepening economic stagnation.

13. An in-depth assessment of the success of the structuraladjustment policies is beyond the scope of this limited report. Such anassessment will be made in a subsequent full economic report. However,enough knowledge exists to state that the results from the first two SALshave only partially fulfilled expectations. There are three main reasonswhy this is so:

(a) Government has not succeeded in fully implementing itsstabilization programs. In particular, the fiscal deficit hadremained very high until FY84/85, and exchange rate managementhad not been appropriate;

(b) the international recession, and developments in the market forbauxite and alumina, have hit Jamaica particularly hard, and haveremoved much of the export earnings base on which the programswere designed; and

(c) in certain areas, such as the sugar sector, the original policyprescription of the adjustment program has been inadequate, andhas had to be strengthened over time. In addition, the necessaryinstitutional changes had probably been underestimated at thestart of the program.

14. Nevertheless, the overall policy environment has changedconsiderably in the last four years. The policy matrix which follows theseparagraphs describes the main areas in which policy reform has taken place,and outlines the main policy challenges that remain to be addressed by theGovernment.

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JAMAICA: Developnent Issues and Policy Reform Matrix

Pol Icy Area Development Issue Pol Icy Reform to Date Issues to be Addressed

Foreign Exchange The exchange rate had previously A two-tier exchange rate system was Governrrent should continue to

Allocation System been malntained at an overvalued introduced in January 1983. This was ensure the meIntenance of a

rate, leading to nonconpetiveness replaced In Novenber 1983 by a conpetitive exchange rate.

of exports, excessive demand, and unified rate which Is determined at

the need to al locate foreign twice-weekly foreign exhange auctions.

exchange by adolnistratlve means. Under the auction system, the rate has

moved from J$3. 15US$1.00 to over

J$5.0US$1.00 at end of 1984. The new

system appears to have stemned the

f l Ight of capi ta 1.

Trade Regime The system of quantitative A program to remove all ORs over a The liberal Izat Ion program should

restrictlons and inport licensing flve year period was adopted In 1982. be continued. Upon conpletlon of

had led to excessive levels of In additlon the llcencing system has a comparative advantage and

protectlon for manufacturIng been silpilfied, and Is now limited incentives study, a new tariff

Industry In particular, and to an primarily to lmports of consumer structure should be Instal led,

over-adninistered system for goods. taking account of the new exchange

allocating Inport licenses. rate, which would provide a

reasonable degree of protection to

domestic Industry, and encourage

exports.

Central Government The Central Government's overall In FY1984/85, the overall deficit was The Government should continue to

Savings deficit was running at 14-17X of reduced to 7.82 of GDP. In addition a reduce the overall deficit to a

GDP until 1984-85. tax reform program has been put In substainable level, probably about

place to render the system more 42 of GDP. Given the high level

efficient and to adapt It to give more of taxatlon and low level of

Incentives to effort and savings. capital expenditure, efforts

should be concentrated on reducing

current expendi ture and transfers.

Public Enterprises Most enterprises have been either Management audits have been carried Efforts must continue to ensure

Savings making losses or only marginal out for the main enterprises, and that substantlal current savings

contributlons to savings. This has pricing policies have been extensively are generated by the enterprises

been prlmerily due to Inappropriate revised. Financial targets and and that Individual enterprises'

pricing and Inadequate management. monitorlng systems have been action progream are carried out.

In addition, there are too many developed. A list of enterprises The divestment program, which has

enterprises involved In activities targeted for divestbent has been drawn to date had few positive results,

which could be carried out by the up. rrust be pursued vigorously.

private sector.

Publ Ic Investbmnt The public sector Investment A three-year rolling PSIP has bean Efforts to continue to Integrate

program (PSIP) had grown rapidly, developed at a more approprlate level. the PSIP process with the budget

but wlth few controls, little A monitoring system has been process should be pursued.

monitoring, no clear decision developed, and a formal decision makin Continued Inprovenmnts In

process, and wlthout Integration process Is In place. Much progress appraisal techniques and approval

with the capital budget. has been mede In this area. procedures will also be needed as

will efforts to make the

monitor Ing system more re levant.

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Policy Area Development Issue Pol Icy Reform to Dabt Issues to be Addressed

Private Investment Most sources of long-termcapital The Government established the Having established Itself on the

had disappeared. The approval National Development Bank (ND8) and marketplace the N3B should now

process for private Investment had the Agricultural Credit Bank (AC8) as streamrlne its procedures so as to

become very cumbersone. apex Institutions chanelling long term lrprove efficiency and the speed

resources through conmerclal banks, of response. While JNIP seemr to

and Jamaica Natlonal Investment hve done a good Job, It should

Prowotion Ltd. (JNIP) as a 'one-stop' continue efforts to lnprove

Investment promotion agency. coordination with other Government

Institutions.

Interest Rates, Interest rates have proved very Time deposits over one year were mede Yields on different forms of

Private Savings, and "sticky' In nominal terms. While tax-free. The overall level of rates savings should be treated more

Monetary Pol Icy generally freely fixed, certain has been raised as part of a tight equal Iy In the Government's

rates are determined centrally. money policy. Liquidity ratios hae ongolng tax reform programs. The

Taxatlon on savings was high. been raIsed from 361 to 44X. Bank of Jamnlca should phase out

Interest rates for the private liquidity ratIos and rely on base

sector are much higher than those maney management, and, at the same

to the private sector. time, reduce the level of the

Government's overdraft facility.

Housing Finance Housing finance Is dominated by Few substantial changes on housing The Government should urgently

public institutlons. The National finance policy hve been enacted. consider closing the JMB and

Housing Trust (tNHT) Is financed by foster a private secondary

a 51 payroil tax. The JamaIca mortgage market. With the high

Mortage Bank (JMB) has not unenployment rate, an alternative

effectively provided a secondary way to fund NHT should be

mortgage facilIty, and Is Identified. The mortgage Interest

technically bankrupt. A ceiling on rate ceiling should be removed to

private mortgage lending rates has permit bulIding societles to

been maintained below average conpete for savings.

Interest rate levels.

Money and Capital Most Jamaican cornpanies have very Little attention has been pald to To encourage the development

Markets high debt/equlty ratlos. The stock this area to date. of an equities market, Government

exchange has been very llmited should give tax breaks to new

In operations. Corporate taxes are public companles and remove the

very high and dividends are double- double-taxing of dividends. The

taxed. The money market Is very Stock Exchange should be widened

thin, and the main paper that In menbership. As an Initial

paper that exists Is 90 day boost to the money market,

treasury Bills and 10 yea local Government should broaden the

registered stock. range of Its financial

Instruwmnts. A state deposit

Insurance sheime should be

considered and financial

InstItutions' supervision should

be strengthened.

- 8 -

Policy Area Development Issue Pol Icy Reform To Date Issues to be Aduressed

Export Incentives The system of protection conbined In addition to liberalization and As an interim measure, the tax

with an overvalued exchange rate devaluation, some explicit incentives rebate scheme should be introduced

led to anti-export bias, and a low have been introduced. Under the two- urgently. Upon corpletion of the

level of nontraditlonal exports tier exchange rate regimes, non- comparative advantage study, the

outside the regional market. traditional exporters received a new tariff system should provide

preferential rate. A scheme to rebate for exporters to operate on a free

rawmaterlais Import duties to trade basis. Attentlon should

exporters has been designed. also be given to the al location of

credit for exporters. Most

Important, however, wi I I be the

maintenance of a competitive

exchange rate.

Marketing and This hes long been an area of Action programs to promote Individual While these efforts should

Technical Assistance effort by successive Goverrvnents. exports have been developed, with continue, attention should

to Exporters These efforts have sometimes been meJor success In the garments area. also to be pald to the further

unfocussed and inadequately funded, More recently, Goverrment has ratlonalization and

and have frequently been established a Technical Assistance coordination of the various

concentrated In pubIlc Fund for Exporters, to finance public Institutions In this

Institutions. Individual companies' activitles. sector.

Bauxite and Altinina Since the Imposition of the bauxite The bauxite levy was restructured in The deeFening crisis In this

levy in 1974, and the oil crises of 1984 to encourage higher production, Industry calls for urgent review

the 1970s, Jamaica has become and the devaluation has lowered locel by Government. Discussions should

uncompetitive In bauxite/altinina costs. be held with the companies to find

production, which has fallen fron out whal can be done to save the

15 million tons In 1976 to under 8 industry, Including changes In the

millilon tons In 1983 and 1984. In levy, and shared coal conversion

1985, the Industry Is In deep costs. Efforts to negotiate

crlsis, with production likely to berter deals also deserve to

be not more than 5.5 ml IlIon tons. cont Inue.

Alunina production Is dependent on

imported oil.

Tourlam Tourist arrivals stagnated In the A vigorous promotion campaign and a Disburbances In Jamaica In

1970s, and little new construction better Internatlonal Image has led to January 1985 led to the first

took place. Profit levels fell a rapid increase In arrivals. setback since 1980 for the

with the overvalued exchange rate, Profitabillty has been restored and Industry, but should soon be

and Infrastructure became run don. some rehabilitation has taken place, forgotten. The promotion campaIgn

particularly in hotels previously should continue, and JNIP should

operated by the Government National focus attention on the aarch for

Hotels and Properties, and now leased new Investors In tourlsm, since

to the private sector. The touriam capacity constraints are beginning

sector has been the brightest spot to emerge.

of the economy In the 1980s.

External Marketing The EMOS (for coffee, cocoa, citrus Producer prices have been revised The ongoing reform programs

Organizations for and pimento) have subsidized inef- upwards. Non-marketing activities should be completed, Including

Agricultural Exports ficient non-marketing activites are being divested to the private early introductlon of the pricing

through low producer prices made sector. Private marketing of such formulae. The deregulation of

possible by their monopsony crops Is now permitted under certain marketing should continue but with

position. However, they have conditlons. Export-based pricing due regard to the maintenance of

succeeded well In creating a formulae are being developed. quallty control, and protection of

special market for these exports. Jamaica's special export markets.

-9-

PolIcy Area Developrent laws PolIcy Reform To Date lsus to be Addressed

Sugar Sugar production has been gradually FactorIes hav been closed, awn- The new program to rescue sugar

declining, productivity Ic very gaunt reorganized, nd desetic desorveo support. However,

low, xnd very large public prices ralod. Dospite mpjor efforts, Government will hew to be strong

subsIdies hava beon necessary. Ilttle progroes was made. IDre In Its up.port of thb new

rcerntly, expert fore I g nm aginmnt anagant, and nay hane to face

has been contracted to run thm furthar hlrd docIslons. Vhere

Industry, which has been further approprIot, program to utiilze

ratlonalized, and a eugar rehsbill- oxisting eugar andc for other

tation program has bean developed. crops should be devlisd.

Bananas Bamnns suffered a slmilar fate The Industry Is In the procoas of a While production Is expected to

to sugar, aIthough cpounded radlcal restructuring. New, modern ris, Governmant romlns In frIn

by the effect of thm 198D plantations re being de vloped, and control of the sector. Full

horricane. 1984 saw a record most naromrketing actlvltls of the dereguiation should be pursued,

low aleve of banan production. Banana Company lva been divested. includIng banana nawrkting, and

the potential of the private

oxporters should not be Ignored.

After a few years, the new

Goverrnnnt projects should be

divested.

Nontraditlonal This Is the on of only two sectors The Govermnnnt has Isunched the Thsse efforts are worthy of

Agriculture (together with Governmnt) that mebItlous AGR4 21 program designed to, support and should be continued.

showed positive growth In the continue Import ubstitutIon and The Ministry of Agriculture should

1970v. This woz mstly through produca new export crops. In be conidered as the first

productlon fron the locel market addition, sm rationalizatIon of candidate for action under the

rather then exports. HYowver, credit delivry, extension services, Adnlnistrativ Reform Program.

agricultirl servIces are both and resarch has taken piece. Furthsr ratlonalizatlon of

expensi v (on term ot pubilc research and extenslon services

expenditure) and relatively should continua. Specific

incoordinated. diversIfication programwill

also continue to be needed.

Public The public service grew very An adninietratlv reform progrwn (ARP) This arbitious program should be

Adeinlstration rapidly In the 1970s. In hes been iaunched, Including sonlor pursued vigDrousIy. In

particuiar, mniy paractatais civil services salary revialons, the partlcuier, efforts to rals

were created to bypass the Introduction of performnnc (program) uenlor salaries should continue

restraInod civil servle alary budgeting, and decentralized personnol despite flacel problems. Given

structure, which weakned Central pol Ices. At the sem tins, the the need to reduce the deficlt

fiscal program has reduced the nuwmbr further, additlonai personnel cuts

of public eployees. wil I be nececsry, and the ARP

should help bo mukc this a more

ratlonal process.

Energy Jm Ica hes virtually no energy Pricing pollces hlvw bean revised to Energy options are ilmited for

resources, relying on Imported pus on the fuII costa of imported Jamaice. Coal conversion *es to

.oll for 98S of conrcial energy petroieun An energy conservatlon be an optIon worthy of deepr

requirnants. Extensive efforts program has been iaunched as part of a study, and minl-hydro chemes

sInce 1974 hne reovaled no Notlonsl Energy Plan. Further studles deserv suport. Poet developunt

exploitable oil deposits, or of peat, hydro and coal convrsion should bh approach vary

economical sources of hydro power. hte been cerried out within a leh t cautiously. Soe reorgsnizstlon

Only poet deposltc and aml I hydro cost power generation study. Oil ond Improved coordination of

schemes hew provd possible. In explorstlon has continued pubiic Institutions Is warranted.

addition, pricing polielswfor unsuccessfuly.

electricity and gpolene- hne at

times beon Inapproprlate.

- 10 -

III: SHORT TERM FINANCING NEEDS

A. Balance of Payments Needs

15. It had been hoped that, given the level of adjustment in theJamaican economy in 1984, a program could have been developed for FY1985/86which, although showing continued adjustment, would have provided forrenewed growth. However, by early 1985 it became clear that furtherspecial barter or US/GSA stockpile sales of bauxite could not be reliedupon for 1985/86. Then, in February 1985, Alcoa suddenly announced that itwas temporarily halting alumina production in Jamaica until the worldmarket for aluminum had recovered. It is unclear at present how long thiscould take, but no production by Alcoa for its own account can be assumedbefore 1987, if then.2/ At the same time, there continues to beuncertainty over the future of the Alpart plant. These two sourcestogether account for 1.6 million tons of alumina capacity and 800,000 tonsof output.

16. Consequently, Jamaica is facing a very difficult situation inFY1985/86. The fall-out in bauxite/alumina exports means a loss of aboutUS$100 million in net foreign exchange earnings. Without a significantincrease in net capital inflow, non-bauxite sector imports would have tofall by about US$160 millions, or 16%. Some of this decline could beaccommodated by import substitution for foodstuffs through the foodself-sufficiency program, but inevitably, such a decline would result infurther falls in investment and manufacturing sector output, sincenon-essential imports have already declined substantially in 1984.Together with cuts in public expenditure, and necessary measures to coverthe fiscal gap, a decline in GDP of the order of 8% would be unavoidable.The projected balance of payments position for this scenario is shown inTable 2 below.

17. The bauxite/alumina sector's most significant contribution to theJamaican economy in financial terms is through the bauxite levy. This isexpected to decline by about J$300 million in 1985/86, which is equivalentto 3% of GDP or 11% of Central Government revenues. Together with lowerimport duties from a constrained level of imports, and below inflationgrowth in income taxes, it is estimated that unless compensatory measuresare taken, the fiscal deficit would rise from about 7.8% of GDP in 1984/85to about 12% of GDP in 1985/86, which is clearly unacceptable. A deficitin the range of 6-8% of GDP has been targeted by the Government and acombination of expenditure and revenue measures is being designed to thisend. Inevitably, because of Jamaica's redundancy laws, much of the gapwill have to be filled by revenue measures. However, expenditure measureswill need to be taken in 1985/86 which will permit expenditures to fall insubsequent years, and this will entail further rationalization oE Central

2/ Shortly before this report was published, the Government announced thenegotiation of an arrangement to keep the Aloca plant open. However,this arrangement is one which is not expected to generate resources forthe budget, nor is it expected to have any significant impact on netforeign exchange earnings. Therefore, the conclusions of the reportwith respect to net capital requirements remain valid.

- II -

Government staffing. This will permit some of the proposed revenuemeasures, such as increased stamp duties on imports, to be reduced incoming years.

18. Given this situation, financing needs are shown on twoscenarios. The base scenario provides for absorption of the loss ofbauxite/alumina revenues by a decline in GDP, and shows a net financingneed of US$214 million, or gross financing needs of US$614 million.However, such a pace of adjustment may well prove to be unsustainable, andit may therefore be considered appropriate to spread the adjustment over a2-3 year period. The revised scenario shows the financing needed to avoida significant decline in non-bauxite GDP, and the net financing requirementunder this scenario would rise by about US$86 million to a level of US$300million, or US$700 million gross. To date, some US$389 million in newfinancing has been identified, although these commitments will need to beconfirmed in coming weeks. Closing the gap to even the base level of grossfinancing would therefore require recourse to further reschedulingarrangements. To this end, Jamaica has already approached the commercialbanks and the Paris Club, and if such arrangements can be finalized, thesewould raise, respectively, US$105 million and US$68 million, assuming termssimilar to those of previous arrangements. In addition, it may be possibleto reschedule payments to non-Paris Club bilateral creditors, and, if onlypreviously unrescheduled payments are included, this could raise a furtherUS$36 million, if terms close to Paris Club are applied. Theserescheduling arrangements would raise total gross financing to a level ofUS$598 million, which is close to the base scenario level.

19. Therefore, there is a need to mobilize about US$102 million infinancing for 1985/86 from presently unidentified sources if a significantdecline in non-bauxite GDP is to be avoided. Thus, growth prospects forFY1985/86, and, indeed, prospects for the successful implementation of theadjustment program, will ultimately depend on the reaction of theinternational community to the new situation facing the country and theextent to which new resources can be found to fill the gap created by thedecline in the international market for alumina. However, given Jamaica'salready heavy debt burden, the greater part of the additional financingrequired should only be sought in the form of concessional or extendedrepayment financing, since shorter term commercial lending would only serveto compound the debt servicing problem over the next few years. Thealready identified financing outlined above includes an increase inmultilateral lending in reaction to the crisis from US$45 millionpreviously committed to US$70 million under the new scenario for Jamaica.The balance of the unidentified financing will therefore have to comeprimarily from bilateral sources. This could take three forms: additionalcommitments from Paris Club donors; measures (such as untying of aid, orconversion from commodity assistance to cash assistance) to speed updisbursements of existing commitments which could not otherwise bedisbursed fully in 1985/86; and rescheduling of previously rescheduleddebts to non-Paris Club creditors. It should be noted, however, that evenunder this scenario, non-bauxite sector imports would have to decline byclose to 10%, which would imply a major adjustment, even with the higherlevel of external financing.

- 12 -

Table 2: Balance of Payments Summary, 1984/85, 1985/86

(US$ million)

1984/85 1/ 1985/86 1985/86Base Case Revised Case

Exports 717 536 536Bauxite/Alumina (438) (240) (240)Sugar/Bananas (46) (58) (58)Other (192) (217) (217)Reexports (41) (21) (21)

Imports -1231 -970 -1048Bauxite Sector (220) (132) (132)Other (1011) (838) (916)

Services (net) 128 118 110Inflows: Tourism (422) (453) (453)

Other (331) (352) (352)Outflows: Interest (-282) (-321) (-329)

Other (-344) (-366) (-366)

Transfers (net) 147 155 155

Current Account -239 -161 -247

Public Capital (net) 395 214 300Inflows (1020) (614) (700)Amortization & Arrears Reduction (625) (400) (400)

Private Capital (net) 123 - -

Changes in Reserves (-increases) -2792/ -533/ -533/

1/ Provisional.2/ This includes a reduction of arrears on reserve liabilities of US$190

million for a gross reserves improvement of US$89 million.3/ With net reserve liabilities scheduled to decline by US$48 million,

this level of net reserves improvement would improve gross reserves byonly US$5 million.

Memo ItemGDP Growth Rate -0.5-1.5% -8% -4%

- 13 -

Table 3: Financing and Amortization, 1985/86

US$ millions

Amortization 400Of which: Bilateral 176Paris Club 1983/84 Resch. (5)Paris Club not resch. (56)Non Paris Club 1983/84 Resch. (82)Non Paris Club not resch. (33)

Multilateral 31Commercial Banks 105

1983/85 Resch. (8)Other Maturities (95)

Other Commercial 65Other Amortization 23

Identified Inflows

New Funds (non-project) 309Bilateral (187)Multilateral (70)Other (car credit, oil facility,

Exim Bank) (52)

New Funds (project) 80Central Government (38)Government Guaranteed (42)

Rescheduling 209Paris Club 68Commercial Banks 105Non-Paris Club Creditors 36

Gross Capital Inflows:Base Scenario 614Revised Scenario 700

Unidentified Inflows:Base Scenario 16Revised Scenario 102

- 14 -

B. Financing the Public Sector Investment Program 3/

20. The 1985/86 - 1987/88 public investment program (PSIP), amountingto about J$3.3 billions was developed in the context of a stringent fiscaland monetary adjustment program. It was developed as an operational tool,and as a matter of policy included no new projects unless financing hadbeen firmly identified. Moreover, projected budgetary counterpart outlayshave been reduced from originally planned levels for many projects. Theprogram in fact represents a "core" group of investments, and is regardedas the minimum that should be carried out. Projected capital expendituresaverage about 10% of GDP in 1985/86 and 1986/87; a drop to about 7.6% ofGDP in 1987/88 reflects the lack of identified projects three yeiars in thefuture, rather than an intentional policy to reduce the level of capitalspending. Public enterprises account for about 40% of the projected total;this proportion has stayed relatively consistent over the last decade.

21. Of the J$3.3 billions planned for capital expenditures during thenext three years, approximately 80% is allocated for capital formation.Another 9% is designated for "software", i.e. research, training, andtechnical assistance. The remainder reflects transfers to thenonconsolidated public sector and abroad, the purchase of assets, andcurrent expenditures included in the capital budget. The proporltion ofcapital formation in the projected PSIP is higher than the 72% average ofthe last 3 years, reflecting the reduction of transfers payments in recentyears. In keeping with the strategy of relying on the private sector forinvestment in productive activities, 57% of the program representsinvestment in economic infrastructure, and only 20% is for productiveactivities, primarily in agriculture. The PSIP has been analyzed by Bankstaff, and the assessment is provided in Volume Two of this report. Thereport endorses the sectoral balance of the program, and finds that most ofthe proposed (both ongoing and new) projects are worthy of suppo-rt. Themain observation on the content of the PSIP is that the Government shouldensure above all that the proposed maintenance programs are carr:ied out asa priority before any new projects are undertaken.

22. The financing plan for the projected 1985/86-1987/88 PSIP isbased on a decline in the reliance on net external and domestic borrowingand an increase in the contribution of public sector savings. Thefinancing plan also includes a targeted reduction in the net indebtednessof the public sector to the domestic banking system, required in order tomeet the planned increase in net international reserves under the IMFprogram. A strong improvement in Central Government finances is assumed inthe financing plan, with current savings moving from an estimated -1.8% ofGDP in 1984/85 to 1.3% of GDP in 1987/88. Similarly, cash savings of thepublic enterprises are projected to increase from J$326 million (3.7% ofGDP) in FY1984/85 to J$752 million (5.6% of GDP) in FY1987/88. TheGovernment's targets in this area are ambitious and reflect a strategy toimprove the performance of the public enterprises which began under thefirst Structural Adjustment Loan. Although the public enterprises would beexecuting about 40% of the projected PSIP, they account for 80% of theprojected contribution of public sector savings to the financing of the

3/ This section only deals with the PSIP at the macro level. For detailson projects, project-financing, sectoral composition and sectorpriorities, please see Volume II of this report.

- 15 -

PSIP. Given the difficult situation facing Central Government financeswith the fall-out of bauxite, it will be essential to ensure that theenterprises' financial performance is kept well on target, or at an evenhigher level if this is required to achieve a viable fiscal situation.

23. Net external financing of the PSIP is projected to drop sharplyduring the 1985/86-1987/88 period from 16.3% of GDP estimated for 1984/85to 1.2% of GDP by 1987/88. This trend reflects the assumption that theimproved pricing policies of the public enterprises and higher CentralGovernment savings will permit the GOJ to reduce its reliance on externalfinancing. Gross disbursements to the Central Government are projected todrop from an estimated J$2.4 billion in 1984/85 to J$1.9 billion in 1985/86and thereafter to continue decreasing to J$1.1 billion in 1987/88.Concessional lending from bilateral donors accounts for 40% of grossdisbursements in 1985/86-1987/88. The plan includes SAL-type financingfrom the World Bank of roughly J$200 million in both 1985/86 and 1986/87.Suppliers' credits account for only about 12% of total disbursements duringthe three year period. No new borrowing from the commercial banks isprojected after 1984/85, but it is assumed that the public sector'soutstanding debt with the commercial banks will be refinanced. Whilstthere is a need to identify financing for projects after 1985/86, it shouldbe noted that much of the financing projected for that year is of a balanceof payments type. The result of this is that there is no project financinggap for 1985/86, although there does remain a balance of payments gap.Therefore, although Government would welcome project financing forindividual projects which would at present be financed with counterpartresources to balance of payments financing, its priority for 1985/86 is tofill the balance of payments gap.

- 16 -

Table 4: Public Sector Capital Expenditure, 1985/86 - 1987/88

(in millions of J$)

1985/86 1/ 1986/87 1/ 1987/88 1/Amount Amount % Amount %

Directly ProductiveAgriculture 145.4 14.3 154.7 12.2 121.4 11.9Mining 3.0 0.3 0.4 - 0.4 -Manufacturing 51.9 5.1 67.6 5.3 10.0 1.0Tourism 54.3 5.3 58.8 4.6 60.0 5.9

Subtotal 254.6 25.0 281.5 22.1 191.8 18.8

Economic InfrastructurePower and Energy 228.2 22.4 221.1 17.5 123.5 12.1Water and Other Utilities 51.4 5.1 73.4 5.8 59.7 5.8Transport and Communications 235.6 23.1 365.3 28.9 251.2 24.5Other Economic Infrastructure 41.6 4.1 65.5 5.2 170.0 2/ 16.6

Subtotal 556.8 54.7 725.3 57.4 604.4 59.0

Social InfrastructureHealth 23.2 2.3 44.2 3.5 49.9 4.9Education 54.8 5.4 83.7 6.6 55.3 5.4Housing 4.0 0.4 4.5 0.4 - -

Other 41.7 4.1 38.9 3.1 38.7 3.8Subtotal 123.7 12.2 171.3 13.6 143.8 14.1

Administration 82.1 8.1 87.0 6.9 82.9 8.1

Grand Total 1,017.2 100.0 1,265.1 100.0 1,022.9 100.0

Memorandum Items 10,351.0 12,172.0 13,389.0GDP 3/As % of GDP 9.8 10.4 7.6

1/ Includes NIBJ investments, but not UDC commercially financed.2/ Includes NIBJ investment program; no project breakdown available.3/ GOJ estimates. These are subject to revision, but are prepared on a

consistent framework, and thus, even if nominal figures change, ratios to GDPwould be little different.

-17-.

Table 5: Financing of the Public Sector Investment Program, 1983/84 - 1987/88

(in millions of J$)

Estimated Projected1983/84 1984/85 1985/86 1986/87 1987/88

Total Capital ExpendituresPublic Sector Capital Expenditures 736.2 1255.6 1017.2 1265.1 1022.9Central Government 485.3 603.5 612.2 792.1 635.5Selective Public Enterprises 1/ 250.9 652.1 405.0 473.0 387.4-of which Central Government transfer

to selected public enterprises 159.6 146.2 106.3 169.9 202.6

Public Sector SavingsCentral Government -635.0 -159.6 -385.0 -190.0 -127.0National Insurance Fund 96.0. 97.0 100.0 106.0 110.0National Investment Bank of Jamaica 2/ 13.0 59.9 70.2 102.2 112.2National Housing Trust 106.0 118.4 125.7 140.0 154.2Selected Non-Financial Public Enterprises 1/ 32.6 325.8 597.4 674.7 752.1Total Public Sector Savings -387.4 441.5 508.3 832.9 1001.5Less: Financing for Other Uses 3/ 69.0 215.4 225.7 246.0 264.2

Contribution of Public Sector Savingsto the Financing of PSIP -456.4 226.1 282.6 586.9 737.3

External Financing (net) 281.8 1454.8 993.1 421.3 163.3Central Government (net) 370.0 1253.9 996.3 563.7 334.5Disbursement 1968.3 1337.7 1094.5Amortization 972.0 774.0 760.0

Selected Public Entities (net) -88.2 250.8 -3.2 -142.4 -171.2Disbursement 48.4 569.9 197.3 120.0 104.1Amortization 136.6 319.1 200.5 262.4 275.3

Net Domestic Financing 4/ 910.8 233.7 14.0 167.1 89.6

Reduction in Liabilities to theDomestic Banking System 5/ - -659.0 -272.5 89.8 32.7

Memorandum ItemNominal GDP (FY basis) 6/ 6,917.0 8,915.0 10,351.0 12,172.0 13,389.0

As % of GDPTotal Capital Expenditures 10.6 14.1 9.8 10.4 7.6Public Sector Savings (contributions) -6.6 2.5 2.7 4.8 5.5Net External Borrowing 4.1 16.3 9.6 3.5 1.2Net Domestic Borrowing 13.2 2.6 0.1 1.4 0.7Reduction in Liabilities to theDomestic Banking System - -7.4 -2.6 .7 .2

As x of Public Sector Capital ExpendituresPublic Sector Savings (contribution) -62.0 18.0 27.8 46.4 72.0Net External Borrowing 38.3 115.9 97.6 33.3 16.0Net Domestic Borrowing/Reduction

in Liabilities 123.7 -33.9 -25.4 20.3 12.0

1/ Includes Air Jamaica, Airports Authority, Broadcasting Company, InternationalTelecommunications, Public Service Co., Merchant Marine, Telephone Co., National SugarCorporation, National Hotels and Property, National Water Commission, National HousingCorporation, Port Authority, Urban Development Corporation, Railway Corporation, andSugar Industry Authority.

2/ Formerly Jamaica National Investment Corporation.3/ During 1983/84 - 1987/88, surplus of NHT is projected to be used to finance additional

housing mortgages and the surplus of NIF is to be used to finance a medical insurancescheme (beginning in 1985/86) and hte commercial projects of the UDC.

4/ Includes bank and non-bank.5/ Includes residual; positive figures represent additional domestic borrowing.6/ For 1985/86 - 1987/88, GOJ estimates.

- 18 -

IV: PROSPECTS FOR THE ECONOMY TO 1990

24. It has already been explained that Jamaica's immediate prospects

are very difficult indeed (see paragraphs 15-18 above). The five-yearscenario below is drawn on the assumption that the loss of bauxite/aluminaearnings is absorbed by a further major adjustment of the economy, but withthis adjustment spread over the two fiscal years 1985/86 - 1986/87, throughadditional net capital inflows. However, for the present it is assumedthat no further declines in bauxite/alumina exports will take place. Noincrease in the volume of such exports is assumed before the end. of thisperiod, and therefore these have been assumed to remain at a level of 5.5million tons bauxite equivalent, compared with 8.8 million tons in 1984.

25. The problem that this creates for the balance of payments hasalready been discussed in paragraphs 16-18 above. It also creates seriousdifficulties for the fiscal situation, which has shown a considerableimprovement in 1984/85. The loss of bauxite levy revenues will be of theorder of J$300 million, or almost 12% of Government revenues. Withoutstrong actions, therefore, the fiscal deficit will rise again, and thiswould be very unfortunate for the program. However, current expendituresare presently composed approximately 38% wages and salaries, 23% operatingexpenses, and 39% interest payments. Clearly, therefore, any solution tothe fiscal problem over the next 2-3 years will require a combination ofimproved performance by the enterprises and elimination of non-priorityinvestments, but inevitably, a major reduction in Central Goverrnmentstaffing. The determination of a credible program to restore fiscalbalance in the new scenario will be a major challenge facing theGovernment, but a prerequisite for the finalization of a program for whichexternal support can be sought, as discussed in paragraphs 17-19 above.

26. The worsened prospects for bauxite/alumina, together withcapacity constraints and a possibly worsened image in the tourism,industry, have the result that growth in the economy after 1985 will bedetermined to a critical degree by the success of the structural adjustmentprogram. In particular, two programs become critical. Nontraditionalexports of manufactured and agricultural goods will be the main source ofnew foreign exchange earnings, and the programs in this area will have tobe carried out vigorously. It will be essential to ensure that sufficientallocations of foreign exchange are available to these sectors, and thatother reforms, such as the revision of the tariff system, are pursued.Similarly, the AGRO 21 program, which is designed to encourage efficientimport substitution and exports in the agricultural sector, will need to bepursued, and, if necessary, procedures to implement new projects in thisarea streamlined.

27. However, it must be recognized that an adjustment program of theorder indicated will impose a severe strain on the economy, and could posethe threat of social and political unrest. It is for that reason that ithas been proposed that additional concessional financing should be raisedin 1985/86, so that the necessary adjustment could be spread over a 2-3

- 19 -

year period (see Table 3 above). With this important caveat, it isprojected that after declines in GDP in 1985 and 1986, a small recoverywill be possible in 1987-90, of the order of 2% per annum. With largedeclines in investment in 1984 and 1985, consumption expenditures would beconstrained throughout the period, so that most incremental income can bededicated to reducing the net exports deficit. Nontraditional exportsoutside Caricom are projected to grow by about 20% a year (which wasachieved in 1984), and no increase in the real import level seem to bepossible over the 1985-90 period.

28. Under such a scenario, the current account deficit on the balanceof payments would continue to fall gradually, reducing the net capitalinflow requirement. This is projected to decline to about US$100 millionby the end of the period. However, with amortization averaging close toUS$400 million per annum, very high levels of gross financing will berequired throughout the period. Inevitably this will entail furtherreschedulings beyond those already envisaged for 1985. Therefore, it isrecommended that Jamaica should enter into an early dialogue with its majorcreditors with a view to negotiating a multi-year rescheduling of existingdebt, particularly for commercial bank debt, and debts to non-Paris Clubbilateral donors.

29. With what now appears to be a permanent loss of foreign exchangeearnings, debt service levels will be very high indeed, and will averageabout 46% of earnings from exports of goods and nonfactor services over theperiod. The outlook presented here raises serious doubts about Jamaica'screditworthiness. It will clearly be necessary that the greater part ofthe net public capital inflow required over the period should come fromconcessional bilateral sources and extended repayment sources such asmultilateral institutions. Therefore, and given that large reschedulingwill be necessary in the coming period, Jamaica can only be consideredcreditworthy for very limited net increases in commercial lending at thepresent time.

- 20 -

Table 6: Projected Main Economic Indicators 1984-90

(% changes unless stated)

Estimated Projected Av.1984 1985 1987 1990 1985-90

GDP 0.5 -4.0 2.3 2.5 0.6Of which: Agriculture (8.2) (7.0) (7.0) (7.0) (7.0)

Manufacturing (-5.2) (-7.0) (3.5) (3.5) (0.4)Mining (-2.5) (-25.5) (0.2) (0.3) (-4.6)

Consumption 1.8 -7.8 1.0 1.0 -1.5Investment -12.1 -10.0 4.8 4.4 2.1

Central Govt. Overall Deficit(share of GDP) -7.8 -7.0 -3.5 -3.0 -3.5

Exports (1976 prices) -2.0 -11.7 5.3 7.2 2.9Of which: Bauxite/Alumina 0.4 -30.8 0.0 0.0 -5.9

Bananas -56.8 131.6 10.0 11.4 26.4Caricom -40.0 0.0 2.0 2.0 1.7Nontrads outside Caricom 22.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0

Imports (1974 prices) -2.9 -17.0 1.9 2.1 -1.9

Balance of Payments:Current Balance (US$ million) -311.7 -275.2 -180.6 -70.3 -188.1Net Public Capital Inflows

(US$ million) 357.6 300.0 175.0 100.0 175.0Change in Reserves (US$ million) -185.5 -75.0 -75.0 -75.0 -74.0

Net International Reserves(US$ million) -642.6 -567.6 -421.6-196.6 -419.6

Total External Debt (US$ million)l/ 3120 3320 3530 3650 n.a.Debt Servicing/Exports

of Goods & NFS 2/ 51.6 59.3 45.7 39.7 46.3

1/ Including reserve liabilities (mostly to IMF).2/ Including amortization expected to be refinanced, but excluding

amortization of reserve liabilities.

Source: Mission estimates.

- 2i -

JAMAICA - STATISTICAL APPENDIX

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Table Number

1.1 Population Trends, 1974-841.2 Main Labor Force Indicators, 1974-841.3 Labor Force and Employment, By Industry Group, 1974-84

2.1 Expenditure on Gross Domestic Product at Current Prices,1974-84

2.2 Expenditure on Gross Domestic Product at Constanct Prices,1974-84

2.3 Growth Rates of Expenditure on GDP, 1974-842.4 Gross Domestic Product by Sector of Origin at Current Prices,

1974-842.5 Gross Domestic Product by Sector of Origin at Constant Prices,

1974-842.6 Growth Rates of GDP by Sector of Origin, 1974-842.7 Savings and Investment, 1974-842.8 Actual and Projected GDP, 1983-90

3.1 Balance of Payments, 1974-843.2 Exports (fob), 1974-843.3 Exports, Value, Volume, 1974-843.4 Imports by End-use, 1974-843.5 Direction of Trade, 1974-843.6 Non-Factor Services, 1974-843.7 Factor Services and Transfers, 1974-843.8 International Reserves, 1974-843.9 Actual and Projected Balance of Payments, 1983-903.10 Actual and Projected Exports, 1983-903.11 Actual and Projected Imports, 1983-90

4.1 External Public Debt, 1974-834.2 Projected Debt Service on External Public Debt, 1985-944.3 Bank of Jamaica Liabilities, 1979-84

5.1 Central Government Operations, 1973/74 - 83/845.2 Central Government Current Revenue, 1973/74 - 83/845.3 Central Government Expenditures, 1973/74 - 83/84

6.1 Summary Accounts of the Monetary System, 1975-846.2 Summary Accounts of the Bank of Jamaica, 1975-846.3 Summary Accounts of Commercial Banks, 1975-846.4 Distribution of Commercial Banks Loans and Advances

1976-846.5 Selected Interest Rates, 1974-84

- 22 -

JAMAICA - STATISTICAL APPENDIX

TABLE OF CONTENTS (Cont'd)

Table Number

7.1 Value Added in Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing,1974-83

7.2 Production and Export of Bauxite and Alumina,1974-84

7.3 Value Added in Manufacturing, 1974-837.4 Tourism Statistics, 1974-84

8.1 Consumer Price Index (All Jamaica), 1974-84

- 23 -

TABLE 1.1: JAMAICA - POPULATION TRENDS,1974-84

1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984

(IN THOUSANDS)

POPULATION 1990.9 2025.0 2060.3 20B4.2 2109.4 2140.1 2164.5 2186.1 2081.0 2120.0 2164.5

(BEGINNIN6 OF YEAR)

POPULATION INCREASE 34.1 35.3 23.9 25.2 30.7 24.4 21.6 40.0 39.0 44.5 31.0

NATURAL INCREASE 47.1 47.4 46.0 46.3 46.1 45.8 45.9 45.9 48.8 48.8 41.5BIRTHS 61.5 61.4 60.7 60.5 58.2 59.1 58.6 59.4 61.5 61.4 53.8DEATHS -14.4 -14.0 -14.7 -14.2 -12.1 -13.3 -12.7 -13.5 -12.7 -12.6 -12.3

NET MIGRATION -13.0 -12.1 -22.1 -21.1 -15.4 -21.3 -24.3 -5.9 -9.8 -4.3 -10.5

POPULATION 2025.0 2060.3 2084.2- 2109.4 2140.1 2164.5 2186.1 2081.0 2120.0 2164.5 2195.5

(END OF YEAR)

(IN PERCENT)

RATE OF NATURAL INCREASE 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.3 2.3 1.9BIRTH RATE 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7 3.0 2.9 2.5DEATH RATE -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -0.6 -0.6 -0.6 -0.6 -0.6 -0.6 -0.6

RATE OF MIGRATION -0.7 -0.6 -1.1 -1.0 -0.7 -1.0 -1.1 -0.3 -0.5 -0.2 -0.5

RATE OF POPULATION INCREASE 1,7 1.7 1.2 1.2 1.5 1.1 1.0 1.8 1., 2.1 1.4

SOURCE: STATISTICAL INSTITUTE OF JAMAICA.

NOTE: Figures for 1982-84 include the results of the 1982 census;earlier years have not yet been adjusted to reflect this.

- 24-

TABLE 1.2: JAMAICA - MAIN LABOR FORCE INDICATORS, 1974-B4

(IN THOUSANDS)

1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 19B4

APRIL

TOTAL POPULATIDN 1993.5 2032.5 2063.3 2028.6 2113.0 2140.6 2164.6 2192.1 2231.5 2126.3 2162.3

POPULATION 14 YEARS & OVER 1161.2 1204.8 1239.8 1269.4 1301.7 1331.8 1363.6 1396.5 1436.5 1363.8 1369.2PERCENTAGE OF POP.UNDER 14 YEARS 41.8 40.7 39.9 39.2 38.4 37.8 37.0 36.3 35.6 35.9 36.7PERCENTAGE OF POP.14 YEARS AND OVER 58.2 59.3 60.1 60.8 61.6 62.2 63.0 63.7 64.4 64.1 63.3LABOR FORCE AS PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL

PDPULATION 41.1 41.8 42.2 43.2 43.9 44.1 45.1 45.9 46.5 45.3 45.5LABOR FORCE AS PERCENTAGE OF POPULA-

TION 14 YEARS AND OVER 70.6 70.5 70.3 71.1 71.4 70.9 71.5 72.1 72.2 70.6 71.9PERCENTAGE OF LABOR FORCE EMPLOYED 78.2 O.1 79.5 75.4 77.0 75.6 72.1 73.8 73.0 74.2 77.2PERCENTAGE OF LABOR FORCE UNEMPLOYED 21.8 19.9 20.5 24.6 23.0 24.4 27.9 26.2 27.0 25.2 22.8

OCTOBER

TOTAL POPULATION 2012.5 2047.0 2082.8 2100.8 2119.3 2153.2 2176.7 2204.8 2241.2 2145.2 2165.0

POPULATION 14 YEARS AND OVER 1181.6 1216.0 1259.8 1285.9 1312.4 1348.8 1378.8 1412.2 1450.4 1368.3 1380.9PERCENTAGE OF POP. UNDER 14 YEARS 41.3 40.6 39.5 32.8 38.1 37.4 36.7 35.9 35.3 36.2 36.2PERCENTAGE OF POP.14 YEARS AND OVER 58.7 59.4 60.5 61.2 61.9 62.6 63.3 64.1 64.7 63.2 63.2LABOR FORCE AS PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL

POPULATION 40.8 42.3 43.0 43.7 44.8 44.7 46.3 46.4 46.8 45.9 44.9LABOR FORCE AS PERCENTAGE OF POPULA-

TION 14 YEARS AND OVER 69.4 71.2 71.1 71.4 72.3 71.4 73.0 72.4 72.3 72.0 70.3PERCENTAGE OF LABOR FORCE EMPLOYED 79.3 79.1 75.2 76.2 74.0 68.9 73.2 74.4 72.1 73.3 74.5PERCENTAGE OF LABOR FORCE UNEMPLOYED 20.7 20.9 24.2 23.8 26.6 31.1 26.8 25.6 27.9 26.7 25.5

ANNUAL AVERAGE

TOTAL POPULATION 2003.0 2039.8 2073.1 2094.7 2116.2 2146.9 2170.7 219B.5 2236.4 2135.8 2163.7

POPULATION 14 YEARS AND OVER 1171.5 1210.4 1249.8 1277.7 1307.1 1340.3 1371.2 1404.4 1443.5 1366.1 1375.1PERCENTAGE OF POP.UNDER 14 YEARS 41.5 40.7 39.7 39.0 38.2 37.6 36.2 36.1 35;5 36.0 36.4PERCENTAGE OF POP. 14 YEARS AND OVER 58.5 59.3 60.3 61.0 61.8 62.4 63.2 63.9 64.5 64.0 63.6LABOR FORCE AS PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL

POPULATION 41.0 42.1 42.6 43.5 44.4 44.4 45.7 46.2 46.7 45.6 45.2LABOR FORCE AS PERCENTAGE OF POPULA-

TION 14 YEARS AND OVER 70.0 70.9 70.7 71.3 71.9 71.2 72.3 72.3 72.3 71.3 71.1PERCENTAGE OF LABOR FORCE EMPLOYED 78.8 79.6 77.7 75.8 75.5 72.3 72.7 74.1 72.6 73.8 75.8PERCENTAGE OF LABOR FORCE UNEMPLOYED 21.3 20.4 22.4 24.2 24.8 27.8 27.4 25.9 27.5 26.2 24.2


NOTE: Figures for 1982-B4 include the results of the 1922 census;earlier years have not yet been adjusted to reflect this.

- 25 -

TABLE 1.3: JAMAICA - LABOR FORCE AND EMPLOYMENT, BY INDUSTRY GROUP, 1974-84

(THOUSANDS)

1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 .1981 1982 1983 1984

APRIL

LABOR FORCE 820.0 849.7 871.7 902.0 928.7 944.7 975.4 946.2 973.1 963.3 948.8EMPLOYED LABOR FORCE 642.0 680.2 692.6 680.3 714.8 714.5 703.4 698.5 709.9 714.5 732.5AGRICULTURE, FORESTRY & FISHING 255.3 219.6 249.9 239.6 261.6 250.7 255.6 260.3 250.3 233.1 242.2MINING,QUARRYING & REFININGN 7.1 7.6 7.3 7.2 6.2 6.7 7.0 6.7 8.0 8.7 7.6MANUFACTURING 81.4 75.2 76.1 77.6 79.7 75.6 73.4 74.7 B2.6 B4.6 90.0CONSTRUCTION & INSTALLATION 39.9 45.4 39.6 33.7 30.8 37.3 24.4 24.5 30.2 33.7 29.0TRANSPORT,COMMUNICATIONS & PUBLICUTILITIES 28.3 31.9 30.6 27.7 27.2 29.0 33.9 29.9 30.9 33.6 34.6

COMMERCE 79.1 82.3 76.8 86.6 95.0 89.1 89.6 94.3 93.1 104.3 101.6PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION 69.8 100.8 106.1 110.8 114.3 110.7 106.9 98.5 98.3 100.8 95.2OTHER SERVICES NOT SPECIFIED 81.1 117.4 106.2 97.1 99.4 115.4 112.6 106.8 110.2 115.7 132.3

UNEMPLOYED LABOR FORCE 178.0 169.5 179.1 221.7 213.9 230.2 272.0 247.7 263.2 248.8 216.3D/W NON-SEEKERS 91.2 103.1 140.0 127.7 132.6 141.4 148.5 163.6 182.7 143.8 151.7

OCTOBER

LABOR FORCE 820.1 865.6 895.5 917.9 949.2 962.5 1006.9 962.7 985.5 985.4 971.4EMPLOYED LABOR FORCE 650.7 684.3 679.1 699.2 702.1 663.4 737.3 712.7 706.0 722.7 723.5AGRICULTURE,FORESTRY & FISHING 221.2 234.1 237.9 248.3 252.3 213.3 271.4 253.3 245.0 235.0 236.9MINING,DUARRYING & REFINING 8.5 7.3 8.4 7.5 5.7 8.5 8.7 8.3 7.0 6.4 6.8MANUFACTURING 81.1 72.7 75.0 74.9 78.2 71.9 80.0 79.8 80.7 91.3 92.8CONSTRUCTION & INSTALLATION 41.6 43.8 36.3 32.2 35.0 26.5 26.4 30.2 32.3 33.1 32.2TRANSPORT,COMMUNICATIONS & PUBLICUTILITIES 25.5 31.2 32.4 31.4 30.8 29.7 34.8 32.4 31.6 31.1 33.3COMMERCE 75.5 81.1 84.6 90.1 91.5 90.8 92.7 97.5 99.9 106.6 102.9PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION 83.3 96.1 106.7 111. 103.2 109.4 110.5 100.1 97.9 99.8 92.6OTHER SERVICES NOT SPECIFIED 114.0 118.0 97.8 103.0 105.4 113.3 112.8 111.1 111.6 119.4 126.0UNEMPLOYED LABOR FORCE 169.4 181.3 216.4 218.7 247.1 299.1 269.6 250.0 279.5 262.7 247.90/N NON-SEEKERS 87.6 98.2 125.6 131.6 139.9 180.3 160.9 170.8 197.3 146.4 142.9

ANNUAL AVERAGES

LABOR FORCE 820.1 857.7 883.6 910.0 939.0 953.6 991.2 954.5 979.3 974.4 960.1EMPLOYED LABOR FORCE 64b.3 682.3 685.9 689.8 708.5 689.0 720.4 704.2 704.8 718.6 728.0AGRICULTURE,FORESTRY & FISHING 238.3 226.9 243.9 244.0 257.0 232.0 263.5 256.8 247.7 234.1 239.6MINING,QUARRYING & REFINING 7.8 7.5 7.9 7.4 6.0 7.6 7.9 7.5 7.5 7.6 7.2MANUFACTURING 81.3 74.0 75.6 76.3 79.0 73.8 76.7 77.3 81.7 88.0 91.4CONSTRUCTION & INSTALLATION 40.8 44.6 38.0 33.0 32.9 31.9 25.4 27.4 31.3 33.4 30.6TRANSPORT,COMMUNICATIONS & PUBLICUTILITIES 26.9 31.6 31.5 29.6 29.3 29.4 34.4 31.2 31.3 32.4 34.0

COMMERCE 77.3 81.7 BO.7 88.4 93.3 90.0 91.2 95.9 96.5 105.5 102.3PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION 76.5 98.5 106.4 111.3 108.8 110.1 108.7 99.3 98.1 100.3 93.9OTHER SERVICES NOT SPECIFIED 97.6 117.7 102.0 100.1 102.4 114.4 112.7 109.0 110.9 117.6 129.2

UNEMPLOYED LABOR FORCE 173.7 175.4 197.8 220.2 230.5 264.7 270.8 250.3 274.5 255.8 232.1G/N NON-SEEKERS B9.4 100.7 132.2 129.7 136.3 160.9 154.7 167.2 190.0 145.1 147.3


- 26 -

TABLE 2.1: JAMAICA - EXPENDITURE ON GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT AT CURRENT PRICES, 1974-84

($ MILLION)

1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984

CONSUMPTION 1848.8 2193.1 2438.3 2629.9 3119.2 3521.8 4072.8 4669.5 5155.3 6116.4 7413.9PRIVATE 1462.7 1716.0 1876.2 2017.5 2369.3 2696.6 3107.0 3632.0 3987.7 4690.7 5827.1PUBLIC 3B6.1 477.1 562.1 612.4 749.9 825.1 965.8 1099.8 1283.1 1425.7 1586.8

INVESTMENT 525.2 670.1 494.4 365.1 562.9 819.4 754.1 1114.1 1264.8 1502.1 1898.8GROSS FIXED CAPITAL FORMATION 478.2 609.6 450.8 349.5 498.9 748.1 690.1 954.3 1153.6 1414.3 1942.8INCREASE IN STOCKS 47.0 60.5 43.6 15.6 64.0 71.3 64.0 159.8 111.2 87.8 -44.0

EXPORTS OF GOODS & NFS 770.3 917.0 7B3.2 928.3 1575.2 2065.0 2425.8 2510.3 '2211.9 2717.6 6053.1

IMPORTS OF GOODS & NFS 991.2 1186.1 1021.6 971.B 1525.2 2132.6 2524.8 3057.6 ,2959.7 3585.1 6479.9

GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT 2153.1 2594.1 2694.3 2951.5 3732.1 4273.6 4727.9 5236.3 5672.3 6751.0 8885.9

(AS X OF SDP)

CONSUMPTION 85.9 84.5 90.5 B9.1 83.6 B2.4 86.1 89.2 90.9 90.6 83.4PRIVATE 67.9 66.2 69.6 68.4 63.5 63.1 65.7 69.4 70.3 69.5 65.6PUBLIC 17.9 18,4 20.9 20.7 20.1 19.3 20.4 21.0 22.6 21.1 17,9

INVESTMENT 24.4 25.8 18.3 12.4 15.1 19.2 15.9 21.3 22.3 22.3 21.4GROSS FIXED CAPITAL FORMATION 22.2 23.5 16.7 11.8 13.4 17.5 14.6 18.2 20.3 20.9 21.9INCREASE IN STOCKS 2.2 2.3 1.6 0.5 1.7 1.7 1.4 3.1 2.0 1.3 -0.5

EXPORTS OF GOODS & NFS 35.8 35.3 29.1 31.5 42.2 4B.3 51.3 47.9 39.0 40.3 68.1

IMPORTS OF GOODS & NFS 46.0 45,7 37.9 32.9 40.9 49.9 53.4 58.4 52.2 53.1 72.9


SOURCE: INSTITUTE OF STATISTICS.

- 27 -

TABLE 2.2: JAMAICA - EXPENDITURE ON GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT AT CONSTANT PRICES,1974-84

(MILLION OF 1974 J$)

1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984

CONSUMPTION 1848.8 1918.6 1869.6 1863.4 1781.9 1694.3 1635.3 1626.3 1644.5 1646.0 1676.0PRIVATE 1462.7 1526.3 1423.5 1412.8 1313.8 1230.3 1181.2 1160.1 1167.1 1159.5 1186.1PUBLIC 3B6.1 392.3 446.1 450.6 468.1 464.0 454.1 466.2 477.4 486.5 489.9

INVESTMENT 525.2 581.5 411.7 268.4 296.3 286.0 238.9 324.8 349.8 352.1 309.5GROSS FIXED CAPITAL FORMATION 478.2 530.4 378.B 258.1 262.4 258.4 225.2 274.3 319.0 331.5 316.7INCREASE IN STOCKS 47.0 51.1 32.9 10.3 33.9 27.6 13.7 50.5 30.8 20.6 -7.2

EXPORTS OF 600DS & NFS 770.3 685.3 593.9 602.8 633.7 646.6 636.9 662.1 639.5 649.6 674.7

IMPORTS OF GOODS & NFS 991.2 1042.2 864.2 773.0 741.3 6B6.3 683.1 725.1 745.0 725.4 728.0


SOURCE: INSTITUTE OF STATISTICS AND MISSION ESTIMATES

- 28 -

TABLE 2.3: JAMAICA - GROWTH RATES OF EXPENDITURE ON 6DP,1974-84

(IN PERCENT)

1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984

CONSUMPTION 7.2 1.7 2.4 -2.6 -5.4 -5.3 -4.1 1.3 1.8 0.1 1.8PRIVATE 8.0 1.7 -0.5 -3.7 -8.4 -6.9 -4.8 0.8 1.6 -0.7 2.3PUBLIC 0.6 1.6 13.7 1.0 3.9 -0.9 -2.1 2.7 2.4 1.9 0.7

INVESTMENT -25.2 10.7 -29.2 -34.8 10.4 -3.5 -16.5 36.0 7.7 0.7 -12.1GROSS FIXED CAPITAL FORMATION -16.4 10.9 -28.6 -31.9 1.7 -1.5 -12.8 21.8 16.3 3.9 -4.5INCREASE IN STOCKS -63.7 8.7 -35.6 -68.7 229.1 -18.6 -50.4 268.6 -39.1 -33.1 -134.8

EXPORTS OF GOODS & NFS -0.7 -11.0 -13.3 1.5 5.1 2.0 -1.5 4.0 -3.4 1.6 3.9

IMPORTS OF GOODS & NFS 2.5 5.1 -17.1 -10.6 -4.1 -7.4 -0.5 6.1 2.7 -2.6 0.4

6RDSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT -3.9 -0.5 -6.2 -2.5 0.5 -1.5 -5.8 3.3 .0 1.8 0.5

SOURCE: TABLE 2.2

- 29 -

TABLE 2.4: JAMAICA - GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT BY SECTOR OF ORIGIN AT CURRENT PRICES,1974-84

(J$ MILLION)

1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984

AGRICULTURE,FORESTRY & FISHING 153.2 190.6 213.9 248.9 295.8 310.0 3B4.8 395.9 396.0 446.8 498.6

MINING & QUARRYING 197.0 220.8 235.3 308.0 510.4 622.5 678.0 543.5 339.3 278.7 658.6

MANUFACTURE 387.2 444.1 490.5 544.6 637.6 694.4 764.8 851.8 1017.0 1273.8 1601.0

ELECTRICITY & WATER 22.2 38.9 54.4 58.5 84.2 89.6 75.2 91.4 109.1 163.5 257.8

CONSTRUCTION t INSTALLATION 213.5 252.4 211.9 181.2 252.1 311.3 279.1 365.9 470.9 566.8 819.8

DISTRIBUTIVE TRADE(WHOLESALE & RETAIL) 401.8 508.0 423.6 443.4 620.2 759.0 913.0 1094.9 1228.8 1370.7 1795.6

TRANSPORT,STORAGE & COMMUNICATION 137.0 156.9 173.6 192.0 227.8 250.9 243.9 267.8 324.5 386.7 549.5

FINANCING & INSURANCE SERVICE 93.4 109.0 112.0 114.9 145.7 165.0 209.8 309.1 326.9 457.0 499.1

REAL ESTATE & BUSINESS SERVICES 204.6 252.4 279.2 299.0 319.8 368.8 407.6 505.3 596.5 675.6 885.0

PRODUCERS OF GOVERNMENT SERVICES 251.3 327.8 383.2 436.6 509.2 565.5 665.6 754.7 894.3 1001.4 1128.2

MISCELLANEOUS SERVICES 119.6 132.7 141.4 156.7 182.8 191.9 203.7 240.3 266.9 299.5 425.6

HOUSEHOLD & PRIVATE NON-PROFITINSTITUTIONS 38.0 40.1 49.5 53.2 50.4 47.1 44.2 47.9 52.6 56.8 71.0

IMPUTED SERVICE CHARGES (MINUS) 65.7 79.6 74.2 85.5 103.9 102.4 141.8 170.4 215.9 226.9 303.9

GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT AT M.P. 2153.1 2594.1 2694.3 2951.5 3732.1 4273.6 4727.9 5298.1 5806.9 6750.4 8885.9

SOURCE: INSTUTUTE OF STATISTICS

- 30 -

TABLE 2.5: JAMAICA G 6ROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT BY SECTOR OF ORIGIN AT CONSTANT PRICES! 15,74-84

(MILLION OF 1974 J$)

1974 1975 1976 1977 1976 1979 1980 1981 19B2 1983 1984

AGRICULTURE,FORESTRY & FISHING 153.2 156.0 157.6 162.3 178.1 160.7 150.6 155.6 143.3 151.2 163.6

MINING & QUARRYING 197.0 157.2 124.9 146.7 150.4 148.0 162.7 164.8 117.0 118.1 115.2

MANUFACTURE 387.2 396.0 376.6 350.5 334.1 317.8 280.9 282.7 300.9 306.7 290.8

ELECTRICITY & WATER 22.2 23.1 23.8 23.4 23.7 23.3 23.6 23.9 23.9 24.7 25.3

CONSTRUCTION & INSTALLATION 213.5 210.8 168.6 133.5 138.3 137.4 98.6 99.0 113.6 117.5 118.2

DISTRIBUTIVE TRADE(WHOLESALE & RETAIL) 401.7 413.0 337.0 310.5 306.1 293.8 273.1 288.6 309.6 288.0 284.3

TRANSPORT,STORA6E & COMMUNICATION 137.0 142.6 137.7 130.0 129.4 129.9 124.5 125.3 126.6 132.1 133.0

FINANCING & INSURANCE SERVICE 93.4 94.6 92.1 98.0 97.9 90.9 103.4 119.3 99.8 111.5 112.4

REAL ESTATE & BUSINESS SERVICES 204.6 211.9 212.9 216.7 210.4 216.0 215.4 222.5 229.0 234.0 245.7

PRODUCERS OF GOVERNMENT SERVICES 251.4 265.1 307.3 328.3 344.1 360.2 350.4 360.6 368.8 372.5 375.0

MISCELLANEOUS SERVICES 119.6 112.2 108.8 105.0 104.6 98.6 93.5 94.2 101.7 107.2 111.3

HOUSEHOLD & PRIVATE NON-PROFITINSTITUTIONS 38.0 29.7 25.7 27.1 21.7 19.0 18.2 18.5 21.4 22.2 22.2

IMPUTED SERVICE CHARGES (MINUS) 65.7 69.0 64.0 70.4 68.2 55.0 66.9 66.9 66.8 63.4 64.8

GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT AT M.P. 2153.1 2143.2 2011.0 1961.6 1970.6 1940.6 1828.0 1888.1 1888.8. 1922.3 1932.2

SOURCE: INSTITUTE OF STATISTICS

- 31 -

TABLE 2.6: JAMAICA - 6ROWTH RATES OF 6DP BY SECTOR OF ORI6IN,1974-84

(Xl

1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984

A6RICULTURE,FORESTRY & FISHING 4.3 1.8 1.0 3.0 9.7 -9.8 -6.3 3.3 -7.9 5.5 8.2

MININ6 & QUARRYING 8.5 -20.2 -20.5 17.5 2.5 -1.6 9.9 1.3 -29.0 0.9 -2.5

MANUFACTURE -3.5 2.3 -4.4 -7.4 -4.7 -4.9 -11.6 0.6 6.4 1.9 -5.2

ELECTRICITY & WATER 0.0 4.1 3.0 -1.7 1.3 -1.7 1.3 1.3 0.0 3.3 2.4

CONSTRUCTION & INSTALLATION -5.4 -1.3 -20.0 -20.8 3.6 -0.7 -28.2 0.4 14.7 3.4 0.6

DISTRIBUTIVE TRADE(WHOLESALE & RETAIL) -16.6 2.8 -18.4 -7.9 -1.4 -4.0 -7.0 5,7 7.3 -7.0 -1.3

TRANSPORT,STORA6E & COMMUNICATION 10.2 4.1 -3.4 -5.6 -0.5 0.4 -4.2 0.6 1.0 4.3 0.7

FINANCIN6 & INSURANCE SERVICE 2.0 1.3 -2.6 6.4 -0.1 -7.2 13.8 15.4 -16.3 11.7 0.8

REAL ESTATE L BUSINESS SERVICES -2.1 3.6 0.5 1.8 -2.9 2.7 -0.3 3.3 2.9 2.2 5.0

PRODUCERS OF GOVERNMENT SERVICES 0.2 5.4 15.9 6.8 4.8 4.7 -2.7 2.9 2.3 1.0 0.7

MISCELLANEOUS SERVICES -5.0 -6.2 -3.0 -3.5 -0.4 -5.7 -5.2 0.7 8.0 5.4 3.8

HOUSEHOLD & PRIVATE NON-PROFITINSTITUTIONS -4.8 -21.8 -13.5 5.4 -19.9 -12.4 -4.2 1.6 15.7 3.7 0.0

IMPUTED SERVICE CHARGES (MINUS) 9.0 5.0 -7.2 10.0 -3.1 -19.4 21.6 0.0 -0.1 -5.1 2.2

GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT AT M.P. -3.9 -0.5 -6.2 -2.5 0.5 -1.5 -5.8 3.3 .0 1.8 0.5

SOURCE: TABLE 2.5.

- 32 -

T'i'iLE 2.7: 3'-MAICA - SAVINGS AND INVESTMENT, 1974-84

(J$ MILLION)

1974 1975 i976 1977 1978 1979 1980 19I8 1982 1983 1984

,oP -CuRENiT PRiCESi 2153.1 2594.1 2694.3 2951.5 3732.1i 4273.6 4727.9 5236.3 5672.3 6751..0 8885.9

IN3VESTMEiNT 525.2 670.1 494.4 365.1 562.9 81Q9.4 754.1 1114.1 1264.8 1502.1 1B98.8

FINANCED BY;

F u F E IS S~i V ,, iN f I S 3 iaS 71. T A} ,$ *4 2 33. 276.2 26.3 124.6 251.0 297.3 668.4 677.5 763.3 702.9

DOMESTIC SAVINGS 453.8 436.3 218.2 338.8 438.3 568.4 456.8 445.7 587.3 738.8 1195.9C EN3 T .SOV T 3.1 47.9 -116.6 -180.7 -1i25.7 -161.5 -321.9 -276.1 -283.9 -578.1 -333.0PRIVATE 420.7 388.4 334.8 519.5 564.0 729.9 778.7 721.S 871.2 1316.9 1528.9O/WT NET SAViNGS 215.7 157.1 86.4 235.3 221.3 336.3 355.8 236.3 321.2 716.9 742.9

DEPRECIATION 20 5. 2 31. 3 485.5 550.0 600.0 786.0

MARGINAL SAVINGS RATE 17.5 -4.0 -217.7 46.9 12.7 24.0 -24.6 2 ii 3-.5 14.0 1.4

AS 'A OF SDP

INVESTMENT i24.4 25.8 18.3 12.4 15.1 19.2 15.9 2i.3 22.3 22.3 21.4

FINANCED BY:

FOREIGN SAVINGS 3.3 9.0 10.3 0.9 3.3 5.9 6.3 12.8 11.9 ll.3 7.9

DOMESTIC SHAVINGS 21.1 16.8 8.1 11.5 11.7 13.3 9.7 8.5 10.4 10.9 13.5CENT. GVT 1.5 1.8 -4.3 -6.1 -3.4 -3.8 -6.8 -5. 3 -5.0 -8.6 -3.7PRIVATE 19.5 15.0 12.4 17.6 15.1 17.1 16.5 13.8 15.4 19.5 17.2

SOURCE: TABLES 2.1 & 3.1.

- 33 -

TA8LE 2.8:JAMAICA - ACTUAL AND PROJECTED GDP 19873-1990

P983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990

PROJECTED GDP (1974 J$ MILLIONI

CONSUMPTION 1646.0i 1676.0 1545.3 1462.9 1478.0 1494.4 151 2. 1526.5

PRiVATE 1159.6 1186.1 1070.2 1006.71 1026.4 l1047.7 '109.4 l108.3PUBLIC 486.5 489.9 475.2 456.2 451.6 447.1 442.6 43 8'

INVESTMENT 352. 1 3095 278.5 292.5 306.6 321.8 335s.2 349.9

EXPORTS,G&NFS 649.6 674.7 642.0 66b5.6 687.7 709.8 7734.8 764.1

IMPORTS,G&NFS 725.4 728.0 a11.6 602.8 611.8 621.1 , 63. 640.8

GJDP (1974 PRICES) 1922.3 1932.2 1854.7 1818.1 1960.5 1904.9 1951.2 1999,7

PROJECTED GDP GROWTH RATES

CONSUMPTTON 0.1 1.8 -7.8 -5.73 1.0 1.1 1.2 10PRIVATE -0.6 2.3 -9.8 -5.9 2.0 2.0 2.1 i.8

PUBLIC 1.9 0.7 -3.0 -4.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0

INVESTMENT 0.6 -12.1 -10.0 5.0 4.8 4.9 4.2 4.4

EXPORTS,G&NFS 1.6 3.9 -4.8 3.7 3.3 3. 3. 5 4.0

IMPORTS,G&NFS -2.6 0.4 -16.0 -1.4 1.5 1.5 i. 1.6

SDP (I?74 PRICES) 1.8 0.5 -4.0 -2.0 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.5

PERCENTAGE COMPOSITION OF 6'P (1974 J$ MILLION)

CONSUMPTION 85.6. 86.7?. 83. 37 80.5? 779.47 78.57. 77.5?. 76.37.PRIVATE 60.3? 61.4? 57.77. 55.4?. 55.27. 55.0? 54.87 54.47PUBLIC 25.3? 25.47. 25.67. 25.1'1 24.37. 23.5 . 2 27?. 21.971

INVESTMENT 18.3?. 16.0?. 1 5.0. 16.1?. 146.57. 16.9?. 17.27 17.5'.

EXPORTS,G&NFS 3738?. 34.9?. 34.6?. 36.6? 3Q 7 .0O?. 77.7?X . 387 Is.21?

IMPORTS,B&NFS 37.7 7.% 37.7? 33.07. 37r3.2? 2.97-q 32 .6?. 3.7.D 3.7'.

SOURCE: MISSION ESTIMATES

- 34 -

TABLE 3.1: JAMAICA - BALANCE OF PAYMENTS, 1974-84

(USS MILLION)

1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984

EXPORTS (FOB) 693.8 785.7 656.4 750.6 794.5 814.7 962.7 974.0 767.4 685.7 738.2IMPORTS (CIF) 931.8 1119.2 907.9 756.2 856.6 994.0 1159.6 1457.4 1366.7 1281.1 1181.6

TRADE BALANCE -238.0 -333.5 -251.5 -5.6 -62.1 -179.3 -196.9 -483.4 -599.3 -595.4 -443.4

NON-FACTOR SERVICES (NET) 86.1 63.6 15.9 50.5 92.0 123.9 151.5 148.4 205.9 273.8 275.1

EXPORTS OF NFS 243.6 249.6 231.5 216.8 283.5 350.5 399.0 428.3 476.3 525.7 558.8(OF WHICH TOURISM) 133.3 128.5 105.7 105.6 146.8 195.4 240.6 284.4 336.2 399.3 423.6IMPORTS OF NFS 157.5 186.0 215.6 166.3 191.5 226.6 247.5 279.9 270.4 251.9 283.7

FACTOR SERVICES (NET) 49.9 -13.5 -74.0 -93.8 -142.4 -167.2 -212.3 -164.5 -144.9 -236.3 -270.4

TRANSFERS (NET) 23.5 26.2 5.8 20.0 25.7 80.0 90.8 124.3 150.4 101.5 127.0

PRIVATE (NET) 32.6 21.0 1.9 15.1 15.2 70.0 81.8 123.3 134.5 94.7 118.0OFFICIAL (NET) -9.1 5.2 3.9 4.9 10.5 10.0 9.0 1.0 15.9 6.8 9.0

CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE -78.5 -257.2 -303.8 -28.9 -86.8 -142.6 -166.9 -375.2 -387.9 -456.4 -311.7

DIRECT INVESTMENT 23.3 -1.9 -0.6 -0.7 -28.8 -26.4 27.6 -11.5 -15.8 -18.7 n.a.

PUBLIC CAPITAL (NET) 90.1 123.7 79.2 -5.9 178.9 71.1 207.4 240.2 446.0 321.0 357.6

DISBURSEMENT 97.0 131.7 79.2 40.7 275.4 181.9 322.4 448.9 663.2 750.4 760.4AMORTIZATION 6.9 B.0 0.0 46.6 96.5 110.8 115.0 20B.7 217.2 429.4 402.8

PRIVATE CAPITAL 1/ 13.0 65.5 11.3 -18.1 -201.8 -54.2 -138.8 55.7 45.9 -163.9 139.6

SDR ALLOCATION 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

CAPITAL ACCOUNT 126.4 187.3 89.9 -24.7 -51.7 0.5 106.2 294.4 476.1 138.4 497.2

CHANGE IN RESERVES -47.9 69.9 213.9 53.6 i38.5 142.1 60.7 80.8 -88.2 318.0 -185.5

(INCREASE = -)

SOURCE: BANK OF JAMAICA

- 35 -

TPEBLE r .Z3 iMACAi - EXPORTS (FOB) i¶'174-04

(US$ MILLION)

1974 i97 5 976 1977 1978 197i9 1980 1981 1982 1963 184

TOT,AL r . i7 759.2 630.1 750. 6 794.5 814.7 962.7 974.0 767.4 685.7 7368.2

D.ifl RE-EXPORTS 1-2,4 14.b 15.b 12.6 9.9 8.4 22.0 9.2 21.7 12.6 14.1

~SiClt6'LTURFiL PROiDUCTS 24.3 29.7 3.2.8 27.7 31.5 33.1 27.0 20r.7 23.0 3 0.2 n.a.

84N4hN4 *2.6 16,1 17.2 ±3.5 17.4 1i8.2 10.5 4.1 4.7 6.8 2'.7PFIMENTO. 5.6 4.7 5.1 4.5 5.4 4.8 7 6 4.4 4.6 7.3 6.BL OO.O 1.3 2.7 3. i .f5 4. -3 5I. 1 4.4 5.0 4.3 5i. 6.2

.ILE.E .. .4 4. 5 5 8 2.7 . 5. 5.6 7.5 8. 4 .8*ITRUS 0.5 2.2 4.4 0.1 1.1 0.6 2.4 1.1 1.3 1.2 n.a.TOIE;f18C'S 0.7 0,6 1.0 0.8 0.1 0.24 0.1 0. 2 0.7 0.9 n.a.GINGER el.6 0.4 0. f4.7 0i.5 0i.5 0j.7 0.5 0.34 0 .4 n.a.

MINEP4L 402.4 474.4 4/5.1 528.5 '52.3 581.7 735.7 760.2 513.8 423.8 501.7

BAUeXITE 104-.6 147,6 i87.5 2053 2374.0 21i3.5 198.4 172.1 170.0 109.2; 177.2i-L uM I NA 29 7 . 3X2 4.8E 23,, , 6 .. 2I 348.34 3 i68 .2 53i7.3. 588.1. 343.7.8 314.6Z 32.4. 5

M 4-UFATURES 155.5 2.7 7 5E 1b3 3 175.5 10.3 1554.3 143. 9 51.7 140.8 n.a.

SUG,AR 3'.R 153i.8 61.4 63.4 597.5 56.9 54.4 46.5 49.3 57.i 45.7RUM! 6.i7 6.4 66b 56b 5.0 7.7 9.6 11.1 10.8 7.9 7.7

TOLASSES 1.1 0.1 2.5 1.2 2.1 2.4 0.7 0.0 1.2 1.0 na.LliCU{OR AND CORIA3iLS; 6L,3 7.3J 7.9 8.5 7.8 7.7 5.3 7.1 7.4 8.2 n.a.FRUIT PREPARATION7 3.6 3.5 35 3.3 2.3 0.3 0.4 1.0 0.8 2.0 n.a.C IARS AND CHEROOTS 4.1 4.5 5.R b.3 6.1 9.0 9.3 9.3 8.5 12.1 n.a.CLITHRiNG 4.6 46 9.1 3.2 3.4 4.8 b.5 7.2 17.4 14.6 n.a.MINERAXLS FUL ES 1 , LUBRiA 'NT 10,' 11.3 I1.4 14.1 17.9 3 1 .7 162.0 17.00 2.9 24. 1 n.a2OTHER MANtUFACTURES 37.4 4t0.2 45.0 54.7 71.4 39.8 53.1 44.8 i5.4 13.6 n.a.

UNOLASSIFIED3 21.5 273.4 14.0 6.4 3`. 32.6 51.1 349.9 57.2 78.3 n.a.

SO'iR6E INSTITUTE ,7F STAiTISTICSi

- 36 -

TABLE 3.3: JAMAICA - EXPORTS:YALUE,VOLUME,1974-84

UNIT 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984

BAUXITEVALUE US$ MILLION 104.6 149.6 187.5 205.3 234.0 213.5 197.4 172.1 170.0 109.2 177.2VOLUME MILLION MT 7.8 5.5 6.3 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.1 5.4 4.1 3.1 4.6UNIT VALUE US$fMT 13.4 27.2 29.8 32.1 36.6 33.4 32.6 32.0 41.7 35.0 38.9

ALUMINAVALUE US$ MILLION 297.8 324.8 237.8 323.2 348.3 368.2 534.7 588.1 343.8 314.6 324.5VOLUME MILLION MT 2.8 2,4 1.6 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.4 2.6 1.8 1.9 1.7UNIT VALUE US$/MT 106.4 135.3 148.6 161.6 165.9 175.3 226.6 230.6 196.5 165.6 188.7

SUGARVALUE US$ MILLION 81.8 153,8 61.4 63.4 59.5 56.9 54.7 46.5 49.3 57.3 45.7VOLUME THOUSANDS MT 265.5 249.6 226.2 209.8 193.0 187.7 131.8 121.3 138.3 136.7 121.8UNIT VALUE USS/MT 308.1 616.2 271.4 302.2 308.3 303.1 415.0 383.1 356.5 419.2 375.2

BANANAVALUE US$ MILLION 12.6 16.1 13.2 13.9 17.3 18.2 9.2 4.3 4.7 6.8 2.5VOLUME THOUSANDS MT 71.2 66.9 75.4 74.9 72.7 63.9 33.1 18.1 21.2 23.0 10.8UNIT VALUE US$/MT 177.0 240.7 175.1 185.6 238.0 284.8 277.9 237.6 221.7 295.7 231.5

OTHER EXPORTSVALUE USS MILLION 197.0 141.4 156.5 144.8 135.4 157.9 166.7 163.0 199.6 197.8 188.3

TOTAL EXPORTSIVALUE) USS MILLION 693.8 785.7 656.4 750.6 794.5 814.7 962.7 974.0 767.4 685.7 738.2

SOURCE: BANK OF JAMAICA AND INSTITUTE OF STATISTICS.

- 37 -

TABLE J.4: JAMAICA - IMPORTS BY END-USE, 1974-84

(US$ MILLION)

I74 l975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984

COuNSUMER 30U5 200.5 2377. 8 164.5 96.4 129.9 121.0 131.2 189.6 230.0 200.8 154.6

rL!QDc } rl- O i29. OD.0 57.6 76.1 65.7 72. i1 1.5 l .? 1i4.2 QW7a.

NION- rOURBLEP ' 36.6 4G.L 35.8 23.0 28,2 26.0 31.8 42.8 47.5 56.4 42.6(0JiFB LE S 41.8 55.7 40.7 19.8 25.6 29.3 27.1 45.3 63.6 40.2 22.3

FUELS 195.2 2'15.0 203.5 225.6 193.9 3731.2 446.5 487.0 40,5 397.3 353 .

OTHER RAW MATERIALS 288.2 328.7 310.9 270.6 343.1 337.2 394.6 496.7 416.1 388.8 392.7

CAPITFAL 8OODS L252L.0 345.7 233.9 154.2 197.8 213.3 197.7 294.1 324.5 2 94.2 2867.7

(CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS 97.9 98.1 71.7 61.6 75.6 60.4 47.0 66.5 71.2 72.3 68.0(TRANSPORT EQUIPMENTI 38.0 86.6 26.6 14.1 21.4 55.2 34.6 67.4 71.4 57.' 41.8(OTHER MACHINERY) 116.1 161.0 135.6 78.5 100.8 97.7 116.1 164.2 181.9 164.6 177.9

BOP ADJUSTMENT -4.1 -4.0i -4.9 9.4 -8.1 -8.7 -10.4 -10.0 -9.2 0.0 -7.3

MERCHAINDISE IMPORTS 93i.8 1119.2 90?7.9 756.2 856.6 994.0 1159.6 1457.4 13o66.7 1281.1 1181.6

SOURCE: BANK OF lAMAICA.

- 38 -

TA,E,LE 3.5J AMAiCA - DIRECTION OF TRADE,1974-B4

(US$ MilLLION)

iQ74 1975 1976 1977 1778 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984

EXPORTS

UNITED STi=iTES 284.7 30I5.8 302.4 343.3 337.7 '65.6 358.4 382.9 24. 3 222.2 356.2

UNITED KINEDOM 101.4 169.6 9dp, 133.9 173.9 155.3 iB6.0 1797.7 140.8 143.1 98.0

CARRICOM COUNTRIES 32.3 34.4 437.2 48.5 57.3 61.6 57.; 6B.6 7c.5 84.8 52.9

CANAD A 34.1 2 5.3 31.7 57.9 60.4 48.6 37.5 87.0 89.5 83 0 12L .2

. l IL 7 2 4 6.B 69 01 .L rc. 41O 104.4 I7E .4 61,0 60.2 5

LATIN h,4,ERi:rCg A0.6 7.5 22.0 13.5 21.9 22.0 15.1 41.5 3i.7 18.1 7.5

EEC ClOUNTRIES 6.5 4.3 10.2 7 9.0 8.0 9.0 9.8 21. 12.7 10.3

OTHER 65.1 140.0 577.9 49.8 71.9 111.7 195.3 126.1 952.4 61.6 85.9

TOTAl J4AMAICA 604.0 759.3 630.1 723.9 782.1 B14.7 962.7 974.0 767,.4 685.7 738.2

IMPORTS

UNITED STiATES 329.9 420.5 339.2 268.9 318.2 318.6 369.8 532.3 485.9 506.5 541.8

.U,NITED KiNGDOM 115.B 147.3 99.4 72.4 89.9 98.0 78.9 93.7 107.3 79.S 62.6

CARICOM COUNTRIES 71.5 J 943 63.7 42.3 47.4 56.9 85.1 111.0 91.0 60.3 35.3

C4NADh 5. 7 54.5 53.8 41.8 48.4 49.0 70.2 76.8 60.3 54.3 64.6

LATIN AMERICA 164.4 18I.0 149.8 136.7 160.0 193.2 199.7 2011.5 227.5 216.5. 148.2

EEC COUNTRIES 77.7 76.6 57.5 44.1 52.7 67,0 54.5 74.1 73. 56.1 51.4

OTHE r 125,9 149.0 149.4 140.6 148.1 220.1 313.1 377.7 330. 0 307.6 285.0

TOThL JAMAICA 935.9 1123.2 912.8 746.8 864.7 1002.8 1171.3 1467.1 1375.9 1281.1 118.9

SOLURCE: INSTITUTE OF STATISTICS

- 39 -

TABLE 3.6: JHMAjICA - NON-FACTOR SERVICES, 1974-84

US$ MILLION'

1974 175 1976 177 1978 179 9 1981 19 1983 9E84

TOuRIS§M 77.4 76.2 46.9 93.7 1316.4 1E4.5 228.9 233.8 .306.1 374.3 403.3RECEIPTS 7135.7 1'05.6 146.8 195.4 240.6 264.4 736.2 399.3 423.6PAYMENTS J9 J - 58.E i119 1i0.4 10.9 11.7 50.6 30.1 25.0 20.3

TRANSPORTATION ;7.5 ~ .J 2 .3 b16.6 24.5 2.6 18.2 11.9 4.4 14.6 31.7RECEIPTS 6 iv' 74 -Z 76. 74.6 1o0. 1 114.0 113.5 97.6 97.7 95.0 103.8PAYMENTS 4d.- 44.0 54. 6 56.0 75.6 91.4 95.3 85.7 93.3 80.4 72.1

cE1ivtRNMENT (NEI 1 2 3.0 4.9 8.3 11.4 '.8 12.1 0.7 9.2RECEIPTS 1 6.9 6. 9.9 12.1 15.6 2. 25.6 25.6 77.9 n2.0 20.0PAY'ilMENTS 4.7 7.0 7.7 9.1 10.7 12.9 14.2 15.8 15.8 19.3 10.8

OJT},HER -4'. 4 -44.3 -55.5 -62L.6 -73.8 -91.5 -107.0 -107.1 -116.7 -115.8 -169.1RECEIPTS 33.0 38.4 39.0 14.5 21.0 19.9 19.3 20.7 14.5 11.4 11.4PAY1MENTS 76. 82,7 7 94.5 E7.3 94.8 111.4 126.3 127.8 131.2 1277.2 180.5

TOT.4L 66.1 63.6 15.9 50.5 92.0 123.9gl 151.5 148.4 205.9 273.8 2775.1

RECEIPTS 243.6 24 96 2731.5 216.8 2L83,5 350.5 399.0 428.3 476.3 525.7 558.8PAHYMENTS 157.5 186.0 215.6 166.3 1911.5 226.6 247.5 279.9 270.4 251.9 L23.7

S;OURCE'BAN.K OF JAM1HHI

- 40 -

TABLE 3.7: JAMAICA - FACTOR SERVICES AND TRANSFERS, 1974-84

(USS MILLION)

1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984

LABOR INCOME (NET) 28.8 38.9 39.2 34.9 36.2 35.5 39.4 37.0 38.6 29.B 34.4

RECEIPTS 34.0 41.1 42.1 41.6 43.9 42.5 46.4 46.9 53.1 49.9 55.6PAYMENTS 5.2 2.2 2.9 6.7 7.7 7.0 7.0 9.9 14.5 20.1 21.2

INVESTMENT INCOME (NET) 21.1 -52.4 -113.2 -128.7 -178.6 -202.7 -251.7 -201.5 -183.5 -266.1 -304.8

RECEIPTS 26.2 22.6 12.7 11.3 10.7 9.8 13.2 50.6 97.1 63.8 17.7

PAYMENTS 5.1 75.0 125.9 140.0 189.3 212.5 264.9 252.1 280.6 329.9 322.5GOVERNMENT DIRECT 14.2 27.6 33.0 33.0 44.0 57.8 85.0 102.1 105.9 128.2 129.2GOV. GUARANTEED 13.4 22.6 26.4 31.0 19.6 24.8 30.9 30.9 30.0 30.6 29.3BANK OF JAMAICA 0.0 0.0 1.1 13.8 14.4 19.7 37.1 53.7 87.8 111.8 97.7PRIVATE DEBT 38.5 42.5 46.9 53.7 36.6 10.1 5.3 6.7 7.6 12.7 5.0LINES OF CREDIT 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.7 4.1 9.5 13.0 1.8 5.6MINING SECTOR -61.0 -17.7 18.5 8.5 82.7 83.4 80.4 15.8 14.5 22.6 28.5OTHER 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -8.6 14.0 22.1 33.4 21.8 22.2 27.2

TOTAL FACTOR SERVICE INCOME 49.9 -13.5 -74.0 -93.8 -142.4 -167.2 -212.3 -164.5 -144.9 -236.3 -270.4


TRANSFERS (NET) 23.5 26.2 5.8 20.0 25.7 80.0 90.8 124.3 150.4 101.5 127.0


GOVERNMENT -9.1 5.2 3.9 4.9 10.5 10.0 9.0 1.0 15.9 6.8 9.0RECEIPTS 9.5 23.9 37.6 36.6 36.6 38.0 42.0 36.6 53.5 49.8 39.8PAYMENTS 18.6 18.7 33.7 31.7 26.1 28.0 33.0 35.6 37.6 43.0 30.8

PRIVATE 32.6 21.0 1.9 15.1 15.2 70.0 81.8 123.3 134.5 94.7 118.0RECEIPTS 57.8 59.6 56.5 55.6 56.4 114.6 120.7 162.7 170.7 128.5 144.6PAYMENTS 25.2 38.6 54.6 40.5 41.2 44.6 38.9 39.4 36.2 33.8 26.6

SOURCE: BANK OF JAMAICA

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- 42 -

TABLE 3.9 : JAMAICA - ACTUAL AND PRDJECTED BALANCE OF PAYMENTS 19B3--1990

(US5 MILLION)

1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1998 (1989 1990

EXPORTS (FOB) 685.7 738.2 611.8 687.7 778.5 890.1 1021.5 1179.2IMPORTS (CIF) 1281.1 1181.6 1008.5 1066.9 1172.4 1288.9 1417.8 1551.6

TRADE BALANCE -595.4 -443.4 -396.6 -379.2 -393.9 -398.8 -396.3 -372.5

NON-FACTOR SERVICES (NET) 273.8 275.1 296.4 338.2 374.3 403.3 4:35.6 471.3

EXPORTS OF NFS 525.7 558.8 617.4 680.7 744.8 803.7 868.2 938.8(OF WHICH TOURISM) 399.3 423.6 472.2 521.0 568.2 608.6 652.5 700.2IMPORTS OF NFS 251.9 283.7 321.1 342.5 370.5 400.4 432.7 467.5

FACTOR SERVICES (NET) -236.3 -270.4 -308.9 -311.2 -310.1 -326.7 -332.1 -344.2

TRANSFERS (NET) 101.5 127.0 134.0 141.4 149.1 157.3 166.0 175.1

PRIVATE (NET) 94.7 118.0 124.5 131.3 138.6 146.2 154.2 162.7OFFICIAL (NETS 6.8 9.0 9.5 10.0 10.6 11.1 11.8 12.4

CURRENT ACCOUlNT BALANCE -456.4 -311.7 -275.2 -210.8 -1BO.6 -164.9 -126.8 -70.3

PUBLIC CAPITAL (NET) 321.0 357.6 300.0 200.0 175.0 150.0 125.0 100.0

DISBURSEMENT 750.4 760.4 700.0 565.0 530.0 507.0 566.0 550.0AMORTIZAION 429.4 402.8 400.0 365.0 355.0 357.0 441.0 450.0

PRIVATE CAPITAL -163.9 139.6 50.2 81.8 80.6 89.9 76.8 45.3

SOR ALLOCATION

CAPITAL ACCOUNT 157.1 497.2 350.2 281.8 255.6 239.9 201.8 145.3

CHANGE IN RESERVES 318.0 -185.5 -75.0 -71.0 -75.0 -75.0 -75.0 -75.0

(INCREASE -)

MEMO ITEM

CURRENT ACCOUNT / GOP 14.51 14.07. 15.7Z 11.4X 8.9Y 7.3X. 5.1Z 2.5X

SOURCE: BANK OF JAMAICA AND MISSION ESTIMATES

- - s £ s a -'- 6 ' - a :hF( SA N W

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- L1 -

- 44 -

TABLE 3.1Ll JAMAICA - ATHUL ANND PROjECTED IMPORTS 1983-1990

1U4 ILL IONi

,98.J 19B4 i985 1986 1987 1988 'E9 1?90

TUEL IMPORTS .797. ' ' 7.9L 30..8 322.A9 31.8 . 413.' 4i473

BAUXITE-OTHERfi M8.0 80.0 61.1 65.6 70.9 76.6 82.7 89.3

CONSUMER GO8DS 200.8 154.6 126.4 133.3 147.3 162.9 180.2 1797.4

FOOD 104.2 89.7 6,8.4 72.1 79.7 88.1 ,7.5 107.9

NON-DURABLE 56.4 42.6 26.8 28.2 31.2 34.5 38.2 42.2DURiA8LES 40.2 22.3 31.2 32.9 36.4 40.2 44.5 49.3

RAW MATERIALS 308.8 31,2.7 297.5 313.6 346.6 383.2 427.9 46,.'

CAPITAL 8ODS0 294.2 2877 219.6 2371.5 255.8 282.9 313 3 V 46.4

CONST. EQPT. 72.3 68.0 54.3 57.2 63.2 69.9 77.3 85.6TRANSPORT EQPT. 57.3 41.8 39.4 41.5 45.9 50.7 56.1 62.1OTHER 164.6 177,9 126.0 132.8 146.B 162.3 179.5 198.7

TOTAL IMPORTS 1281.1 1181.6 1008.5 1066.9 1172.4 1288.9 1417.8 15351.6

SOURCE: MISSION ESTIMATES

-45-

TPABLE 4.1. JAMMAICA - EXTERNiAL PU'BLIC DEBT, 1974-83

(US$ MILLION)

1?74 1975 1976 1977 1978 1?79 1980 19B1 1982; 1983

MEDIUM HAND LOND-T-ERM DEBT 528.6 695.5 885.9 938.5 1,050.4 1,176.9 1,396.4 1,537.0 1,846.5 1,949.9

A. Paris Club Creditors io{ficial and officially quaranteed) 130.9 159.5 210.8 20.6 284.8 398.0 459.4 485.1 640.3 712.5

1. Guaranteed export credits 21.7 22.7 32.0 32.8 37.9 63.9 56.0 4.3 41.7 34.02. Loans from qovernments 109.2 176.8 178.8 187..8 246.9 334.2 403.4 4422.7 598.5 678.5

B. Commercial Bank Debt (a) 281.2 420.3 417.2 413.5 422.9 399.5 384.3 389.1 417.2 352.6

C. Multilateral Organizations 41.4 52.6 81.0 105.8 162.5 198.3 282.2 360.1 502.1 579.9

1. IBRO 37.8 44.1 5B.7 68.1 112.2 126.6 176.4 211.9 322.0 36B.42. Other 3.5 8.5 22.3 37.6 50.4 71.7 105.8 148.2 180.1 211.5

D. Other Loans from governments .0 .0 83.1 92.5 91.1 102.8 202.4 247.2 245.B 267.2

E. All Other 75.1 63.1 93.8 106.1 89.0 78.2 68.0 55.6 41.2 37.7

1. Bonds 75.1 63.1 46.9 47.7 33.2 25.8 18.7 14.1 5.2 4.62. Nationalization liabilities 0.0 0.0 46.9 58.5 55.8 52.4 49.3 4i.5 36.0 33.1

BANK OF JAMAICA DEBT, N.I.E. 33.9 67.b6 227.3 288.5 416.0

TOTAL, EXCLUDING IMF 528.6 695.5 885.? 938.5 1,050.4 1,210.9 1,464.0 1,764.4 2,135.1 2,365.9

IMF GENERAL RESOURCE ACCOU'NT 16.3 15.6 80.1 107.0 180.6 351.5 309.3 469.7 582.9 627.2

TOTAL, INCLUDING IMF 544.8 711.1 966.0 1,045.5 1,230.9 1,562.3 ,773.3 2,234 0 2,717.9 ,7S93.1

SOURCE: WORLD BANK D''EBTOR REPORTING SYSTEM

- 46 -

TABLE 4.2: JAMAICA - PROJECTED DEBT SERVICE ON EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT, 1985-94 (a)

(US$ MILLION)

Status of DebtDec. 31, 1983 P r o j e c t e d D e b t S e r v i c e

Amount 1985 1986 1987 1988 19B9 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994Outstndg Arrears

A. COMMERCIAL BANKS lb)1. Rescheduled Debt 0.5 92.5 107.2 74.1 54.7 43.7 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Principal 206.1 0.0 61.4 81.8 57.2 44.4 38.4 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Interest 0.5 31.1 25.5 16.9 10.3 5.3 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2. Reeaining Maturities 1.1 37.3 29.0 23.3 22.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.7 0,0

Principal 146.6 0.0 27.0 21.9 18.7 20.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.0Interest 1.1 10.2 7.1 4.6 2.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1

3. Total 1.6 129.7 136.2 97.4 77.5 44.5 11.2 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.0


B. PARIS CLUB CREDITORS1. Rescheduled Debt (c) 0.0 10.3 10.0 9.7 9.4 21.0 15.9 14.9 13.9 12.9 0.0

Principal -- 0.0 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 16.1 12.2 12.2 12.2 12.2 0.0Interest 0.0 6.4 6.1 5.8 5.5 4.9 3.7 2.7 1.7 0.7 0.0

2. Remaining Maturities 31.8 55.0 57.4 53.8 51.3 48.6 42.8 45.9 51.5 53.3 53.2


3. Total 12.4 35.6 38.7 36.3 34.1 43.7 36.1 33.7 31.2 28.5 14.1

Principal 712.5 0.0 10.3 10.0 9.7 q.4 21.0 15.9 14.9 13.9 12.9 0.0Interest 12.4 25.3 28.7 26.6 24.7 22.7 20.2 18.8 17.3 15.5 14.1

C. MULT ORGANIZATIONS 2.4 83.2 109.4 121.8 134.7 139.7 133.3 127.8 121.6 115.7 105.2

Principal 579.9 1.4 28.7 46.8 56.0 68.8 77.0 75.6 75.3 74.7 74.9 70.8Interest 1.0 54.5 62.5 65.8 65.9 62.7 57.7 52.5 47,0 40.8 34.3

D. OTHER CREDITORS 57.9 100.8 97.7 80.5 73.0 56.3 50.6 52.5 56.8 59.4 56.4

Principal 304.9 41.0 82.S 81.2 66.8 61.4 46.8 42.2 45.2 50.4 53.9 51.7Interest 17.0 17.9 16.6 13.7 11.5 9.5 B.4 7.3 6.3 5.5 4.6

TOTAL LONG-TERM DEBT 74.4 349.2 382.0 336.0 319.3 284.2 231.3 214.6 210.2 204.2 175.6

Principal 1,949.9 42.4 210.2 241.7 208.4 204.7 183.8 143.8 135.9 139.5 142.3 122.5Interest 32.1 139.0 140.3 127.6 114.6 100.5 87.5 78.8 70.7 61.9 53.1

SOURCE: WORLD BANK DEBTOR REPORTING SYSTEM.(a) Based on commitments received through Dec. 31, 1984. Status of debt data is known only as of Dec. 31, 1983.Ib) Non-insured debts only. Ic) World Bank staff estimates of debt service due under the terms of the July 1984 Paris Club Agreed Minute.

- 47 -

TABLE 4.': 3AMQICA - BANK OF JAMAICA LIABILITIES(US $ Thousands)

1979 1980 1981 1982 1987 1984

A. Use of IMF credit 351,464 309,288 469.656 582,882 6'7,231 673,427

P. Res. Related ST LiabnBk China: commodin l ,5 1, 25 8273 42 ' 412 41'Yn. .hina: advarice --- 90 0; 7o V Y i j 900 90

Norway: Ja,r Cons Funrd 577 699 It04 76 Libya 6-Eia deposit t 50,000 (S,00O 50,ijOi 0 50 ,00 P,K!uweit: 6-.lo deposit ; ,000 0 OSe, FaPc Bank O 0 0 15 f ,

E8rk of A,ierica I 0 i. 1,500 1,500Maribene d0 0 ° '5

Marc Rich 0 0O 0 dQCitizens *. South....err i 0 . 0 0 0 l,0Oi( d

Banco Rep. Bogota O 0 5,000 0 QBnc Central Feru d 0 10,00.0 0 0 Citibank d 10,00d 0 Q O ;Air Jamaica 0 2.500 Q 0 QB.nc Central Ecuador 0 0 6,652 0 0Fed Res Bnk NY 0 0 0 0 10,000 b,092Mexico Oil Facility 0 0 0 0 25,000 0

TOTAL 2,513 68,512 74,074 52,416 91.081 62,173

C. Med Term LiabilitiesBnk Ven SEpec Deposits 0 0 40,0O00 30,000 C 5,000 15i,"QVen Oil Facility: $LS 0j 8G826 35,521 58,221 65,432 97,032Ven Oil Facility: Blvs 0 8,822 375,521 58,22i 75,UOQ ,73

Pi' Mexico Oil Facilty (O O 23,q7 38,347 45, 00k 7d

Bnk China No I Aci,t 0) O 0 11,b ,55 6725 4,6iUB.S.M. 102 0 0 18,d81 43,51Q 86,54i 140,40dVenezuela Invest Fund 31,43 1 31,4i1 17,5379 5,117 14,59 lj,U1

Venezuela C'onvenio d 0 32,70.} 31,455 b64,27'9 64,2QQ

Trin S Tob Deposit * 55,000 55,i000 55,Q00 55, 000S 55,000Q 55,0ai0Iraq Fund Ec DevlInti ) 0 0 0 0 9, 90 9190G.S,M. 5 Blended Cred 0 Q 0 Q 2,023 2,500

TOTA't,L 86,431 104,081 258,275 .3,41,122 439,803 499,870

D. TOTAL LIABILITIES 440,408 481,881 802,00-5 976,420 1J158,115 1,2.3,470of which:

Inci. in ORuE M&LT 55,000 10}5,000 105,000 l05,Q00 1,4,,G0 106,900Other. excl IMF 33,944 67,59'3 227,349 288,5.'8 415,984 455,143

SOURCE; BANK OF JAMAICAi

- 48 -

TABLE 5.1: JAMAICA - CENTRAL GDYERNMENT OPERATIONS, 1973174-83184

IJS MILLIDN)

1973/74 1974/75 1975/76 1976/77 1977/78 197B179 1979/80 1980/81 1981/82 1982/83 1983184

CURRENT REVENUE 327.3 541.7 661.8 600.3 649.0 1032.8 1127.9 1181.1 1475.8 1624.6 1748.6

CURRENT EXPENDITURE 340.2 493.2 614.1 771.6 832.8 1139.1 1307.8 1550.3 1720.9 1921.4 2420.4

tURRENT ACCOUNT SURPLUS/DEFICIT (-i -12.9 48.5 47.7 -171.3 -183.8 -106.3 -179.9 -369,2 -245.1 -296.8 -671.8

CAPITAL REVENUE 20.4 21.8 22.9 6.4 3.2 4.6 5.1 10.6 7.1 4.4 3.0

CAPITAL EXPENDITURE 102.9 257.4 325.9 359.2 332.6 431.5 356.4 471.8 643.8 673.0 537.6

OVERALL SURPLUS/DEFICIT (-) -95.4 -187.1 -255.3 -524.1 -513.2 -533.2 -531.2 -830.4 -881.8 -965.4 -1206.4_- - - - - - - - - - - - - -- - -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- ------ _ _ _ _ _ _

FINANCING (NET) 95.4 187.1 255.3 524.1 513.2 533.2 531.2 830.4 881.8 965.4 1206.4

EXTERNAL (NET) 53.9 55.2 99.4 83.2 21.1 283.1 140.2 219.6 503.7 376.2 370.0DOMESTIC (NET) 41.5 131.9 155.9 440.9 492.1 250.1 391.0 610.8 378.1 589.2 836.4I/W: BANK FINANCING 18.1 43.2 116.9 330.1 232.4 134.9 339.0 489.7 189.2 636.0 819.4

SOURCE: MINISTRY OF FINANCE AND PLANNING.

- 49 -

TABLE 5.2w JAMAICA - CENTRAL GOVERNMENT CURRENT REVENUE, 1973/74-83/84

(JS MILLION)

1973/74 1974175 1975176 1976/77 1977178 1978/79 1979/80 1980/81 1981/82 1982/83 1983/84

TOTAL REVENUE 347.7 563.5 684.7 606.7 652.2 1037.4 1133.0 1191.7 1482.9 1629.0 1751.6

TAX REVENUE 301.8 371.9 477.5 484.8 487.9 737.5 836.1 880.9 1130.6 1376.7 1536.0

TAXES ON INCOME & PROFITS 147.7 185.0 194.8 219.0 190.7 263.9 329.6 412.2 523.3 647.2 679.8

TAXES ON PROPERTY 10.7 12.1 22.4 21.0 24.6 23.5 23.2 23.3 27.1 33.8 29.4

TAXES ON PRODUCTION ANDCONSUMPTION 87.6 115.6 174.6 204.4 240.2 396.2 411.8 396.7 484.8 567.9 676.6

TAXES ON INTERNATIONALTRADE & TRANSACTIONS 55.8 59.2 85.7 40.4 32.4 53.9 71.5 48.7 95.4 127.8 150.2

BAUXITE LEVY - 131.0 146.1 80.0 110.0 268.0 232.5 230.0 300.0 198.2 140.0

NON-TAX CURRENT REVENUE 25.5 38.8 38.2 35.5 51.1 27.3 59.3 70.2 45.2 49.7 72.6

CAPITAL REVENUE 20.4 21.8 22.9 6.4 3.2 4.6 5.1 10.6 7.1 4.4 3.0


- 50 -

TA8LE 5.3: JAMAICA - CENTRAL nOVERNMENT EXPEND ITURES, 1977/74-87/84

(3$ MILL10N!

1973/74 1974/75 1975/76 1976177 1977/78 1976/79 1979/80 19860/81 1981/82 198183 1987/84_ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~~~~ ~ ~~~~ I _t I I_ I I_ ! 1711 i ~ . _ _ _ I _ j

TIT L EXPEIDIiURES 443. 1 750.6 940,0 1130.8 1165.4 1570.6 1664.2 2022. 1 2'364.7 2594.4 2958.0

CURRENT EXPEND ITURES 340.2 493.2 614.1 771.6 632.8 11397.1 107.8 ,550.7 1720,9 1921.4 420.4

GOODS AND SERVICES 168.7 223.8 '269.9 493.3 567.9 767.3 8Q7.7 514.L 104i.4 1115.8 1254.0O/W; PERSONAL EMOLUMENTS 109.5 142.27 181.0 389.5 419.8 517.0 583.7 6583b.L 74Q.0 843.0 967.0

INTEREST PAYMENTS 25.6 38.8 58.5 9 5.3 i132.9 212.6 277.i 373.8 424.1 578.0 802i.01

CURRENT TRANSFERS 145.9 2.30.6 285.7 168.0 11'2.0 159.2 223.4 262.4 256,4 -227.6 3i64.4

CiAPITAL EPENDITURES 102.9 257.4 3725.9 359.2 73372l. 6 471.5 756.4 471.8 643.8 6b7.0 537.6

CAPITAL FORMATION 49.7 84.7 136.0 258.7 245.7 305.8 247.E 118 3.4 416.7 44l A

PURCHASE OF LAND 73.0 3.8 10.0 16.7 6.8 20.0 o - - 5.0 -

CAPITAL TRANSFERS 50.2 168.9 179.9 8.8 80.1 54.7 87.6 2'16.4 208.9 20'9.2 222.6

EMPLOYMENT PROGRAM - - - - - 51.0 21.0 18.0 16.0 18.0 18.


- 51 -

TABLE 6.1: JAMAICA - SUMMARY ACCOUNTS OF THE, MONETARY SYSTEM, 1975-84

(J$ MILLION)

DECEMBER 31

1975 1976 1977 1976 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984

NET FOREIGN ASSETS -14.6 -215.6 -211.8 -574.9 -816.5 -964.4 -1204.5 -1031.8 -2697.7 -3112.1

NET DOMESTIC ASSETS 951.0 1203.2 1331.5 1993.9 2422.3 2997.0 364B.2 3892.3 6362.2 7616.7

NET CREDIT ON CENTRAL 6OVERNMENT 253.8 491.4 695.1 935.1 1156.8 1713.0 2068.4 2467.0 3169.1 3029.5NET CREDIT ON REST OF PUBLIC SECTOR 28.0 37.8 58.0 78.8 130.4 -31.1 143.5 -190.6 -157.4 -46.4OFFICIAL CAPITAL AND SURPLUS -10.0 -17.4 -17.9 -8.4 -8.2 -5.4 -10.4 -8.6 -9.8 -45.0CREDIT TO OTHER FINANCIAL INSTITUTIIDNS 37.3 31.8 26.5 48.7 62.5 45.9 50.1 96.2 100.0 202.6CREDIT TO PRIVATE SECTOR 606.8 596.8 521.9 617.3 734.4 872.4 1195.6 1594.9 2025:6 2280.0NET UNCLASSIFIED ASSETS 35.1 62.8 47.9 322.4 346.4 402.2 201.0 -66.6 1234.7 2196.0

ALLOCATION OF SDRS 18.8 18.7 19.5 39.0 59.5 75.1 84.2 79.8 139.8 196.3

MEDIUM AND LONG-TERM FOREIGN LIABILITIES 15.2 13.2 11.8 3.8 3.8 3.5 11.2 16.1 17.7 36.1

LIABILITIES TO THE E.D.F.

LIABILITIES TO OTHER FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS 103.1 105.8 71.9 99.6 109.5 137.8 174.4 206.7 247.4 345.2

SPECIAL DEPOSITS - - - 63.3 2.6 128.9 100.2 - - 111.6

LIABILITIES TO PRIVATE SECTOR 799.3 850.0 1016.4 1213.3 1430.4 16B7.3 2073.7 2557.9 3259.6 3815.4

MONEY 287.3 301.3 420.2 497.4 571.0 649.0 688.6 732 885.0 1015.1QUASI-MONEY AND OTHER 512.0 548.7 596.2 715.1 859.4 1038.3 1385.1 1825.5 2374.6 2800.3

I INCLUDES VALUATION ADJUSTMENT ANP STABILIZATION FUND.2 INCLUDES COMMERCIAL BAN'S CAPITAL AND SURPLUS.

SOURCE: BANK OF AMAICA, IMF.

- 52 -

TABLE 6.2: SUMMARY ACCOUNTS OF THE BANK OF JAMAICA,1975-84

(JS MILLION)

DECEMBER 31

1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984

NET INTERNATIONAL RESERVES 48.5 -146.2 -140.6 -505.3 -748.0 -986.3 -1123.1 -971.6 -2793.4 -3154.3

ASSETS 109.6 28.7 39.4 85.3 9B.8 134.6 134.1 176.5 225.6 461.2LIABILITIES 61.1 174.9 180.0 590.6 846.8 1120.9 1257.2 1148.1 3019.0 3615.5

NET DOMESTIC ASSETS 172.1 398.9 432.8 845.B 1169.5 1501.8 1696.2 1484.7 3677.2 4778.1

NET CREDIT ON CENTRAL 6OVERNMENT 156.7 371.0 420.4 597.4 804.0 1369.9 1560.0 1805.1 2463.2 2386.6NET CREDIT ON REST OF PUBLIC SECTOR 2.9 10.6 10.9 19.9 35.8 -98.4 14.6 -312.0 -253.8 -43.5OFFICIAL CAPITAL AND SURPLUS -10.0 -17.4 -17.9 -8.4 -8.2 -5.4 -10.4 -8.6 -9.8 -45.0CREDIT TO COMMERCIAL BANKS 13.9 21.3 11.6 22.4 39.7 80.2 25.2 22.6 2.8 48.5STABILIZATION FUND - - 20.9 - 44.1 2.1 1.4 - - -VALUATION ADJUSTMENT - - - 195.2 245.9 281.1 214.2 111.4 1405.3 2774.9NET UNCLASSIFIED ASSETS 8.6 13.4 -13.1 19.3 8.2 -127.7 -108.8 -133.8 69.5 -343.4

ALLOCATION OF SDRS 18.8 18.7 19.5 39.0 59.5 75.1 84.2 79.8 139.8 196.3

LIABILITIES TO COMMERCIAL BANKS 75.4 95.7 90.5 128.6 142.4 250.9 206.7 117.0 368.3 991.0

.CURRENCY 26.1 23.9 30.6 38.0 47.0 42.3 41.4 52.7 58.5 83.6SPECIAL DEPOSITS - - - - - - - - - 80.5OTHER DEPOSITS 49.3 71.8 59.9 90.6 95.4 208.6 165.3 64.3 309.8 826.9

LIABILITIES TO OTHER FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS - 0.2 0.3 0.2 - 0.2 0.1 - 2.3 0.5

LIABILITIES TO PRIVATE SECTOR (CURRENCY) 127.4 138.1 181.9 172.7 219.6 259.3 282.1 316.3 373.4 436.0

1 VALUED AT THE EXCHANGE RATE AT THE END OF EACH PERIOD.2 ARISING FROM CHANGES IN THE EXCHANGE RATE.

SOURCE: BANK OF JAMAICA, IMF.

- 53 -

TABLE 6.3: JAMAICA - SUMMARY ACCOUNTS OF COMMERCIAL BANKS, 1975-B4

(J$ MILLION)

DECEMBER 31

1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 19B0 1981 19B2 1983 1984

NET FOREIGN ASSETS -63.1 -69.4 -71.2 -69.6 -68.5 -48.1 -81.4 -60.2 95.7 42.2

CLAIMS ON BANK OF JAMAICA 70.0 94.6 93.0 197.8 155.9 391.7 301.8 111.2 371.9 1015.2

CURRENCY 26.1 23.9 30.6 38.1 47.0 42.3 41.4 52.7 58.5 83.6SPECIAL DEPOSITS - - - 63.3 2.6 128.9 100.2 - - 111.6OTHER DEPOSITS 43.9 70.7 62.4 96.4 106.3 220.5 160.2 58.5 313.4 820.0

NET DOMESTIC ASSETS 792.8 820.0 901.4 1094.2 1279.2 1434.9 1873.6 2424.8 26B5.0 2840.7

NET CREDIT ON CENTRAL GOVERNMENT 97.1 120.4 274.7 337.7 352.8 343.1 50B.4 661.9 705.9 642.9NET CREDIT ON REST OF PUBLIC SECTOR 25.1 27.2 47.1 58.9 94.6 129.5 128.9 121.4 96.4 -2.9CREDIT TO OTHER FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS 37.3 31.8 26.5 48.7 62.5 45.9 50.1 96.2 100.0 202.6CREDIT TO PRIVATE SECTOR 606.B 596.9 521.9 617.3 734.4 872.4 1195.6 1594.9 2025.6 22BO.0NET UNCLASSIFIED ASSETS 26.5 43.7 31.2 31.6 34.9 44.0 -9.4 -49.6 -242.9 -281.9

MEDUIM AND LONG-TERM FOREIGN LIABILITIES 15.2 13.2 11.8 3.8 3.8 3.5 11.2 16.1 17.7 36.1

LIABILITIES TO THE E.D.F.

LIABILITIES TO BANK OF JAMAICA 9.5 14.5 5.3 15.3 39.9 80.5 16.7 11.4 3.6 26.3

LIABILITIES TO OTHER FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS 103.1 105.6 71.6 99.4 109.5 137.6 174.3 206.7 245.1 344.7

SPECIAL DEPOSITS - - - 63.3 2.6 128.9 100.2 - - 111.6

LIABILITIES TO PRIVATE SECTOR 671.9 711.9 834.5 1040.6 1210.8 1428.0 1791.6 2241.6 2886.2 3379.4

DEMAND DEPOSITS 159.9 163.2 23B.3 324.7 351.4 389.7 406.5 416.1 511.6 579.1TIME DEPOSITS 166.7 176.6 125.4 149.1 201.6 218.6 417.3 614.1 974.9 1134.1SAVINGS DEPOSITS 297.1 317.2 411.8 478.7 552.1 687.7 813.9 1016.0 1122.2 1304.7OTHER 48.2 54.9 59.0 B8.1 105.7 132.0 153.9 195.4 277.5 361.5

SOURCE: BANK OF JAMAICA,IMF.

- 54 -

TABLE 6.4: DISTRIBUTION OF COMMERCIAL BANKS LOANS AND ADVANCES,1976-84

DECEMBER 31

1976 1977 1978 1979 19B0 1981 1982 1983 1984

(IN MILLIONS OF JAMAICA DOLLARS)

TOTAL 702.2 658.8 767.6 900.9 1088.1 1494.8 1963.1 2447.4 2745.8

AGRICULTURE 82.4 88.9 81.9 93.1 117.8 192.9 230.8 265.3 401.0MINING 6.5 6.2 5.7 5.8 6.3 7.9 12.0 11.6 10.0MANUFACTURING 123.1 119.1 132.8 164.1 213.9 317.3 396.7 520.4 681.1SUGAR/RUM 14.7 16.1 26.7 39.0 45.3 74.1 79.8 87.4 111.1FOOD/DRINK 25.1 22.9 22.2 30.6 36.6 59.9 95.3 119.7 144.1TEXTILES/FOOTWEAR 16.7 17.2 27.1 31.7 40.2 53.1 61.4 75.5 78.8CEMENT 8.8 8.6 8.7 9.2 13.1 9.8 7.6 12.0 9.5CHEMICALS 5.8 8.0 10.6 11.9 17.4 18.5 23.5 28.0 39.1OTHER 52.0 46.3 37.5 41.7 61.3 101.9 129.1 197.8 298.5CONSTRUCTION DEVELOPMENT 126.8 109.3 127.8 126.1 127.3 181.3 326.5 514.0 617.4CONSTRUCTION 53.4 40.8 52.5 40.8 37.3 71.2 140.2 258.2 328.1LAND DEVELOPMENT/ACQUISITION 73.4 68.5 75.3 85.3 90.0 110.1 186.3 255.8 289.3FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS 19.9 18.1 32.6 35.5 23.0 34.5 38.9 58.6 67.3TRANSPORT 27.8 25.4 43.6 59.2 108.7 145.8 232.5 285.2 334.3ELECTRICITY,WATER,GAS 15.4 19.3 26.7 29.2 40.9 59.1 59.9 39.4 27.3GOVERNMENT 16.1 28.4 27.8 28.5 23.5 24.1 30.9 106.6 44.0DISTRIBUTION 107.6 71.3 80.7 80.5 B9.6 122.1 126.5 134.5 107.4TOURISM,ENTERTAINMENT 17.2 14.0 32.6 45.8 72.4 88.6 113.7 129.9 148.9PROFESSIONAL SERVICES 44.7 41.8 55.9 65.5 76.7 128.6 226.2 208.8 164.0PERSONAL 114.7 117.0 119.5 167.6 188.0 192.6 168.5 173.1 143.1

(IN PER CENT)

AGRICULTURE 11.7 13.5 10.7 10.3 10.8 12.9 11.8 10.8 14.6MINING 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.6 0,5 0.6 0.5 0.4MANUFACTURIN6 17.5 18.1 17.3 18.2 19.7 21.2 20.2 21.3 24.8SUGARIRUM 2.1 2.4 3.5 4.3 4.2 5.0 4.1 3.6 4.0FOOD/DRINK 3.6 3.5 2.9 3.4 3.4 4.0 4.9 4.9 5.2TEXTILES/FOOTWEAR 2.4 2.6 3.5 3.5 3.7 3.6 .3.1 3.1 2.9CEMENT 1.3 1.3 1.1 1.0 1.2 0.7 0.4 0.5 0.3CHEMICALS 0.8 1.2 1.4 1.3 1.6 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.4OTHER 7.4 7.0 4.9 4.6 5.6 6.8 6.6 8.1 10.9CONSTRUCTION DEVELOPMENT 18.1 16.6 16.6 14.0 11.7 12,1 16.6 21.0 22.5CONSTRUCTION 7.6 6.2 6.8 4.5 3.4 4.8 7.1 10.5 11.9LAND DEVELOPMENT/ACQUISITION 10.5 10.4 9.8 9.5 8.3 7.4 9.5 10.5 10.5FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS 2.8 2.7 4.2 3.9 2.1 2.3 2.0 2.4 2.5TRANSPORT 4.0 3.9 5.7 6.6 10.0 9.8 11.8 11.7 12.2ELECTRICITY,WATER!GAS 2.2 2.9 3.5 3.2 3.8 4.0 3.1 1.6 1.0GOVERNMENT 2.3 4.3 3.6 3.2 2.2 1.6 1.6 4.4 1.6DISTRIBUTION 15.3 10.8 10.5 8.9 8.2 8.2 6.4 5.5 3.9TOURISM,ENTERTAINMENT 2.4 2.1 4.2 5.1 6.7 5.9 5.8 5.3 5.4PROFESSIONAL SERVICES 6.4 6.3 7.3 7.3 7.0 8.6 11.5 8.5 6.0PERSONAL 16.3 17.8 15.6 18.6 17.3 12.9 8.6 7.1 5.2

SOURCE: BANK OF JAMAICA.

- 55 -

TABLE 6.5: JAMAICA- SELECTED INTEREST RATES, 1974-04

(IN PER CENT PER ANNUM)

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD

1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984

BANK RATE 9.0 8.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 13.9TREASURY BILL (90 DAYS) 7.2 6.9 7.3 7.2 8.3 4.2 9.9 9.8 9.6 12.4 13.3LONG-TERM GOVERNMENT BONDS 10.7 11.1 11.7 11.7 11.7 12.3 13.b 13.7 13.7 15.3 17.2

TIME DEPOSITS N/A N/A 10.2 7.8 5.9 7.4 B.7 9.9 10.5 12.9 14.5

3-6 MONTHS (WEIGHTED) N/A N/A IOB 7.1 5.7 8.3 9.5 10.5 I0.7 13.6 15.86-12 MONTHS (WEIGHTED) N/A N/A 9.7 7.7 5.5 7.6 6.8 10.0 10.7 12.6 13.0

SAVINGS DEPOSITS 6.0 6.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 11.3PRIME LENDING RATE 11.0 10.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 15.9

COMPARABLE INTEREST RATES

TREASURY BILLS (90 DAYS) IN:BARBADOS q.0 5.7 4.4 4,6 4.8 4.9 5.6 9.5 13.3 n.a. n.a.TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO 5.6 4.0 4.0 3,9 3.6 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1UNITED KINGDOM 11.4 10.2 11.1 7,7 8.5 13.0 15.1 13,.0 11.5 9.6 11.4UNITED STATES 7.9 5.B 5.0 5.3 7.2 10.0 11.6 14.1 10.7 8.6 8.7

EURODOLLAR DEPOSITS (90 DAYS) INLONDON 11.0 7.0 5.6 6,0 8.7 12.0 14.4 I6.5 1'9.1 n.a. n.a.

MEMORANDUM ITEM:

CHANGE IN CONSUMER PRICES (AVERAGE) 27.3 17.4 9.8 11.5 75.0 28.8 28.2 11.9 6.5 11.3 27.8

I OVERALL AVERAGE WEIGHTED RATE OF TIME DEPOSITS RANGING FROM CALL MONEY TO DEPOSITS OF 24 MONTHS AND ABOVE.2 THIS IS A BASE RATE TO WHICH COMMISSIONS AND FEES ARE ADDED.

SOURCES: BANK OF JAMAICA: IMF.

-56-

TABLE 7.1: JAMAICA - VALUE ADDED IN ASRICULTURE,FORESTRY AND FISHING,1974-83

(J$ MILLION)

1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983

(IN CURRENT PRICES)

AGRICULTURE, FORESTRY AND

FISHING 153.2 190.6 213.9 248.9 295.8 310.0 384.8 395.9 396.0 446.8

EXPORT AGRICULTURE 36.5 46.6 52.9 42.7 51.4 53.7 56.2 63.6 73.8 74.6SUGAR CANE 22.2 31.9 33.4 26.8 31.2 33.4 37.8 40.5 47.8 46.4OTHER MAIN EXPORTS 14.3 14.7 19.5 15.9 20.3 20.3 18.3 23.1 25.9 28.2

DOMESTIC AGRICULTURE 70.2 84.8 93.7 128.8 149.5 154.7 216.4 209.8 197.2 232.6ROOT CROPS 40.3 48.4 47.2 63.5 68.7 68.5 96.0 90.0 79.5 93.1OTHER PRIMARY PRODUCTS 29.8 36.4 46.5 65.3 80.9 8b6.1 120.5 119.8 117.7 139.5

LIVESTOCK AND HUNTIN6 37.2 47.4 53.2 60.9 74.5 81.9 91.9 97.6 96.7 105.4

FORESTRY AND LOGGING 2.7 3.0 3.2 3.5 3.3 3.3 3.6 3.7 3.S 5.3

FISHING 6.7 8.9 10.9 13.0 17.0 16.4 16.7 21.1 24.6 28.9

(IN 1974 PRiCES)AGRICULTURE, FORESTRY AND ----------------

F:ISHIN8 153.2 156.0 157.6 162.3 178.1 160.7 150.6 155.6 143.3 151.2

EXPORT AGRICULTURE 36.5 32.6 36.2 29.5 33.3 27.3 23.9 25.0 24.5 23.7SUGAR CANE 22.2 20.6 21.0 IB.5 20.8 17.1 16.1 14.2 14.6 13.4OTHER MAIN EXPORTS 14.3 12.0 15.2 11.0 12.5 10.2 7.8 10.7 9.9 10.3

DOMESTIC AGRICULTURE 70.2 72.2 68.0 75.8 90.0 80.3 75.9 78.6 68.8 74.7ROOT CROPS 40.3 41.5 36.6 40.1 51.3 44.5 37.8 38.7 31.7 34.8OTHER PRIMARY PRODUCTS 29.8 30.6 31.4 35.7 38.7 35.8 38.1 39.9 37.1 39.9

LIVESTOCK AND HUNTING 37.2 41.2 42.8 46.4 45.1 44.1 43.5 44.1 41.3 43.5

FORESTRY AND LOSGING 2.7 2.9 3.0 2.7 1.6 1.0 o.9 0.9 0.? 1.2

FISHING 6,7 7.0 7.6 7.9 8.1 8.1 6,5 7.1 7.9 8.1

SOURCE: INSTITUTE OF STATISTICS

- 57 -

TABLE 7.2: JAMAICA - PRODUCTION AND EXPORTS OF BAUXITE AND ALUMINA, 1974-84

1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 19B. 19B4

BAUXITE

PRODUCTION ('(00 TONS) 15328 11379 10295 11434 11776 11574 12053 11682 8157 7724 7959

EXPORTEDQUANTITY ('000 TONS) 7B00 5483 6284 6355 6448 6469 6060 5294 4079 3009 4560X OF TOTAL PRODUCTION 51 48 61 56 55 56 50 45 50 39 57VALUE ('000 1$) 95118 136026 170423 186652 335210 376715 353509 306341 302858 216301 815146UNIT VALUE (J$1TON) 12.19 24.81 27.12 29.37 51.99 58.23 58.33 57.87 74.25 71.88 1787.6

PROCESSEDQUANTITY I'000 TONS) 7249 6088 4027 5078 5288 5105 5918 6312 4223 4492 4244i OF TOTAL PRODUCTION 47 54 39 44 45 44 49 54 52 58 53

MINING CAPACITY ('000 TONS) N/A N/A 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000 13000

CAPACITY UTILIZATION RATE (X) N/A N/A 79 88 91 B9 93 90 63 59 61

ALUMINA

PRODUCTION (;000 TONS) 27B1 2275 1647 2048 2117 2094 2456 2556 1758 1853 1751

INPUT-OUTPUT RATIO 2606 2676 2445 2479 2542 2438 2424 2424 2424 2424 2424

EXPORTEDQUANTITY (1000 TONS) 2805 2375 1623 2036 2142 2074 2395 2549 1755 1907 1720VALUE ('000 J$( 270752 295258 216036 293812 498958 651054 957210 1047585 612379 604139 1492100UNIT VALUE (JW/TON) 96.52 124.32 133.11 144.31 232.94 313.91 399.67 410.98 348.93 316.80 867.50

REFINING CAPACITY ('000 TONS) N/A N/A N/A N/A 2850 2850 2850 2850 2850 2850 3100

CAPACITY UTILIZATION RATE (7.) N/A N/A N/A N/A 74 73 86 90 62 65 56

VALUE ADDED (J$ MILLION)

CURRENT PRICES

NINING AND QUARRYING 197.00 220.84 235.31 308.07 510.44 622.46 678.02 543.48 339.29 278.70 658.60BAUXITE AND ALUMINA 187.32 213.47 228.50 301.51 503.72 614.88 671.08 535.95 331.12 267.76 638.70QUARRYING (INCL. 6YPSUM) 9.68 7.36 6.81 6.52 6.72 7.58 6.94 7.53 8.17 10.94 19.90

CONSTANT 1974 PRICES

MINING AND QUARRYIN6 197.00 157.22 124.90 146.71 150.36 148.00 162,71 164.80 116.97 118.10 115.20BAUXITE AND ALUMINA 187.32 148.17 117.45 139.37 143.20 141.62 158.29 160.54 112.34 113.20 106.77QUARRYING (INCL. GYPSUM) 9.b8 9.';i5 7.45 7.34 7.16 6.39 4.42 4.27 4.6b 4.90 6.43

SOURCE: PLANNING INSTITUTE DF JAMAICA

- 58 -

TABLE 7.3: JAMAICA - VALUE ADDED IN MANUFACTURING, 1974-83

(JS MILLION)

1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 198 1992 1983

(IN CURRENT PRICES)

MANUFOCTURING 387.2 444.1 490.5 544.6 637.6 694.4 164.8 851.8 1017.0 1273.8

FOOD IEXCL. SUSAR) 65.2 74.9 88.3 97.0 99.7 123.6 124.8 145.7 168.4 212.2SUSAR MOLASSES D FUM 17.7 25.5 20.2 15.6' 12.4 16.9 13.7 15.9 24.5 24.5ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES 47.5 52.8 54.9 68.8 72.4 83.0 97.G 111.8 119.3 144.6NC;-ALCOHCLIC 3EVERAGES 7.7 9.7 12.2 12.3 12.9 14.3 15.2 22.7 25.2 29.6TOBACCD L TODBACCO PRODUCTS 42.0 46.8 53.3 58.2 67.2 01.9 107.9 116.2 137.6 157.0TEXTILES L WEARING APPAREL

iEXCL. FOOTWEAR) 18.5 24.4 24.6 26.0 30.4 24.7 31.0 32.0 36.8 40.6LEATHER L LEATHER PRODUCTS

IEICL. FOOTWEAR) 1.5 1.6 2.1 2.7 4.3 3.1 3.5 6.5 0.7 8.8FOOTWEAR 9.4 10.6 9.6 10.2 12.1 11.1 13.9 14.4 13.2 13.8WDGD,CDUD & CORK PRODUCTS

(EXCL. FURNITURE) 4.0 6.4 6.9 7.3 5.3 5.5 5.9 6.1 6.7 7.6FURNITURE & FIXTURES,

EXCEPT PRIMARILY OF METAL 14.B 13.8 16.0 18.0 22.4 21.7 21.9 22.3 30.2 35.4PAPER L PA°ER PRODUCTS,

PRINTING & PUBLISHIN6 21.7 26.0 28.5 28.5 31.3 34.0 37.6 39.3 42.9 53.8PETROLEUM REFINING 31.4 31.4 42.8 63.7 92.8 99.5 97.4 80.1 119.1 196.6CHEMICALS B CHEMICAL,PETRDLEUM,RUBBER ANDPLASTIC PRODUCTS 35.5 36.2 40.1 45.4 60.9. 66.2 77.6 97.8 109.9 134.7

NON-METALLIC PRODUCTSiEXCL. PETROLEUM & COALPRCDUCTS1 17.8 18.9 20.7 17.8 19.5 17.2 20.0 19.1 40,2 52.3

FETAL & FABRICATED METALPRODUCTS,MACHINERY ANDEGUIPMENT 40.6 60.6 65.4 67.9 87.9 85.3 90.9 114.8 125.8 152.7

OTHER MANUFACTURINGINDUSTRIES 3.7 4.4 4.8 5.4 6.0 6.3 6.8 7.2 8.4 9.9

(IN CONSTANT 1974 PRICES)

MANUFACTURING 387.2 396.0 378.6 350.5 334.1 317.8 280.9 282.7 300.9 306.7

FOOD (EXCL. SU6AR1 65.2 69.7 69.6 70.4 63.0 60.2 46.9 47.3 51.7 58.0SUEAR MOLOSSES L RUM 17.7 17.2 17.1 14.1 13.8 13.7 11.7 9.8 10.2 10.0ALCOHOLJC BEVERAGES 47.5 50.6 45.5 44.4 46.1 45.6 46.9 44.9 45.9 40.4TNC-ALCOHOLIC BEVERABES 7.7 7.2 6.9 7.5 6.B 6.0 6.4 5.2 5.0 5.3TOBACCO & TOBACCO PRODUCTS 42.0 44.2 42.4 42.5 41.0 45.4 44.6 45.5 50.2 48.5TEXTJLES & NEARING APPAREL(EXCL. FOOTWEAR) 18.5 19.1 16.9 16.2 14.9 10.9 10.5 0.5 8.8 8.4

LEATHER B LEATHER PRODUCTS(EXCL. FOOTWEAR) 1.5 1.3 1.5 1.S 2.3 1.1 1.5 1.9 2.6 2.5

FOOTWEAR 9.4 10.9 9.8 10.7 8.9 7.5 5.4 5.9 5.3 4.5WOOD,WOOD & CORK PRODUCIS

EXCL. FlIJNITURE) 4.0 5.7 5.3 6.7 4.2 3.6 4.0 3.5 3.6 3.2FURNITURE & FIXTURES,EXCEPT PRIMARILY OF METAL 14.8 10.3 10.5 10.1 7.8 6.0 4.9 3.9 4.9 5.3

PAPER & PAPER PRODUCTS,PRINTING & PUBLISHIN6 21.7 21.9 18.6 14.7 15.3 17.7 15.5 16.5 10.1 15.9

PETROLEUM REFINING 31.4 29.7 25.4 21.6 20.0 23.9 19.4 15.7 17.9 22.1CHEMICALS & CHEMICAL,PETRCLEUM,RUBBER ANDPLASTIC PRODUCTS 35.5 36.1 39.1 33.3 35.6 31.9 26.9 31.3 30.9 33.7

NON-METALLIC PRODUCTSiEXCL. PETROLEUM & COALPRODUCTS) 17.6 17.6 15.3 14.1 13.1 12.1 7.2 7.2 10.6 12.3

METAL B FABRICATED METALPROOUCTS,MACHINERY ANDEDUIPNENT 40.6 50.8 52.4 39.6 3B.2 29.8 27.0 33.4 32.7 34.1

OTHER MANUFACTURINGINDUSTRIES 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.0 3.1 2.5 2.1 2.2 2.4 2.5

SOURCE: IYSTITUTE OF STATJSTICS

- 59 -

TABLE 7.4: JAMAICA - TOURISM STATISTICS, 1974-84

(IN THOUSANDS)

1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 l982 1983 1984

TOTAL VISITORS 530.7 553.2 470.7 386.5 532.9 593.7 543.0 552.0 670.2 782.9 B43.4

STOPGOER VISITORS 433,0 395.8 327.7 264.9 381.8 426.6 395.3 406.4 467.8 566.1 603.5THREE NIGHTS & OVER 406.9 377.5 313.6 254.5 369.$ 400.5 384.5 396.7 457.2 553.9 584.7UNDER THREE NIGHTS 26.1 18.3 14.1 10.4 12.0 26.1 10.8 9.7 10.6 12.2 19.2

CRUISE VISITP0S 92.7 150.4 141.5 121.0 148,7 159.6 173.4 139.7 194.4 210.2 230.6ARMED FPiCES VISITORS 5.0 7.0 1.5 0.6 2.4 7.5 14.3 5.9 8.0 6.6 9.3

ORIGIN OF STOPOVER VISITORS 433.0 395.6 327.6 264.8 381.9 426.4 395.3 406.4 467.8 566.2 603,5

UNITED STATES 339.7 297.2 229,3 17t9.8 253.3 279.5 239.7 272.4 3273.0 425.1 467.9

CANADA 37.4 46.7 48.5 42.3 71.9 74.4 70.7 66.0 80.2 76.4 78.9UNITED KINGDOM 17.2 16.0 14.4 10.3 11.6 9.4 12.1 14.6 18.0 21.4 20.2EUROPE 9.9 10.5 13.1 12.9 24.2 43.2 51.6 26.7 19.4 15.3 12.3COMMONWEALTH CARIBBEAN 14.1 31.0 iO.Q 9.3 10.0 9.8 10.4 13.5 15,7 15.5 13.5OTHER 14.7 14.2 12.3 O1.2 10.9 10.1 10.8 13.2 11.5 12.5 10.7

NUMBER OF BEDS 21.9 22.2 23.9 22.3 20.8 20.9 20.1 20.3 20.6 22,0 22.;

HOTELS 16.4 16.6 17.9 18.6 17.1 17.0 16.6 15.3 15.6 16.2 16.26UEST HOUSES 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.3RESOfiT COTTAGES 4,7 4.8 5.2 3.0 2.9 3.1 2.7 4.2 4.8 5.6 5.2APARTMENTS I,3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 .0 .0 0.3

HOTEL ROOM OCCUPANCY RATE ( 43.8 43.5 32.2 31.7 40.0 48.0 44.2 41.5 53.3 58.6 60.4

AVERAGE LENGHT OF STAY (DAY 8.4 8.8 8.6 8.7 8.5 8.6 9.5 10.0 9.7 9.2 9.0

ESTIMATED EXPEND'TURE

(US $ MILLION) 133.3 128.5 105.7 105.6 148.2 194.3 241.7 284.3 337.8 3199. 2 435.2

AVERAGE EXPENDITURE PER

VISITOR (IN US$) 251.2 232.3 224.6 2713.2 278.: 327.3 445.1 5 515. 504.0 509.9 516.0

SuURCE: MINISTRY CF TOURIlSM AND BANK OF JAMAICA.

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report no. 5616-jm public disclosure ... - the world bank · its contents may not otherwise be...

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