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Presentation to Fixed Income Investors December 2011 Repsol Credit Update

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Page 1: Repsol Credit Updateimagenes.repsol.com/es_en/Repsol_Investor_Call_tcm11-615483.pdfKinteroni 250 MUS$ 2 gas/liquids fields under development in Caipipendi block W.I. Repsol : 37.5%;

Presentation to Fixed Income Investors

December 2011

Repsol Credit Update

Page 2: Repsol Credit Updateimagenes.repsol.com/es_en/Repsol_Investor_Call_tcm11-615483.pdfKinteroni 250 MUS$ 2 gas/liquids fields under development in Caipipendi block W.I. Repsol : 37.5%;

2

Disclaimer

ALL RIGHTS ARE RESERVED © REPSOL YPF, S.A. 2011

Repsol YPF, S.A. is the exclusive owner of this document. No part of this document may be reproduced (including photocopying), stored, duplicated, copied, distributed or introduced into a retrieval system of any nature or transmitted in any form or by any means without the prior written permission of Repsol YPF, S.A.

This document does not constitute an offer or invitation to purchase or subscribe shares, in accordance with the provisions of the Spanish Securities Market Law (Law 24/1988, of July 28, as amended and restated) and its implementing regulations. In addition, this document does not constitute an offer of purchase, sale or exchange, nor a request for an offer of purchase, sale or exchange ofsecurities in any other jurisdiction. In particular, this document does not constitute an offer to purchase, subscribe, sale or exchange of Repsol YPF's or YPF Sociedad Anonima's respective ordinary shares or ADSs in the United States or otherwise. Repsol YPF's and YPF Sociedad Anonima's respective ordinary shares and ADSs may not be sold in the United States absent registration or an exemption from registration under the US Securities Act of 1933, as amended.

The resources mentioned in this document do not constitute proved reserves and will be recognized as such when they comply with the formal conditions required by the U. S. Securities and Exchange Commission. In addition, this document contains statements that Repsol YPF believes constitute forward-looking statements which may include statements regarding the intent, belief, or current expectations of Repsol YPF and its management, including statements with respect to trends affecting Repsol YPF’s financial condition, financial ratios, results of operations, business, strategy, geographic concentration, production volume and reserves, capital expenditures, costs savings, investments and dividend payout policies. These forward-looking statements may also include assumptions regarding future economic and other conditions, such as future crude oil and other prices, refining and marketing margins and exchange rates and are generally identified by the words “expects”, “anticipates”, “forecasts”, “believes”, estimates”, “notices” and similar expressions. These statements are not guarantees of future performance, prices, margins, exchange rates or other events and are subject to material risks, uncertainties, changes and other factors which may be beyond Repsol YPF’s control or may be difficult to predict. Within those risks are those factors described in the filings made by Repsol YPF and its affiliates with the Comisión Nacional del Mercado de Valores in Spain, the Comisión Nacional de Valores in Argentina, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission in the United States and with any other supervisory authority of those markets where the securities issued by Repsol YPF and/or its affiliates are listed.

Repsol YPF does not undertake to publicly update or revise these forward-looking statements even if experience or future changes make it clear that the projected performance, conditions or events expressed or implied therein will not be realized.

The information contained in the document has not been verified or revised by the Auditors of Repsol YPF.

Page 3: Repsol Credit Updateimagenes.repsol.com/es_en/Repsol_Investor_Call_tcm11-615483.pdfKinteroni 250 MUS$ 2 gas/liquids fields under development in Caipipendi block W.I. Repsol : 37.5%;

3

Introduction

Strategic Plan Update and Key Accomplishments

Financial Overview

Conclusions

Agenda

Page 4: Repsol Credit Updateimagenes.repsol.com/es_en/Repsol_Investor_Call_tcm11-615483.pdfKinteroni 250 MUS$ 2 gas/liquids fields under development in Caipipendi block W.I. Repsol : 37.5%;

4

Introduction

• Today we will review Repsol’s operations and financial performance for 2010 -11.

• Repsol has a EUR 750 million Floating Rate Note bond maturing on February 16th, 2012.

• Our current liquidity position fully covers the refinancing of the FRN and short term maturities.

• We believe that the recapitalization of banks will reduce bank loans to corporations, creating the

need for companies to raise more funding in the capital markets.

• We expect some crowding-out to occur in the capital markets due to the significant refinancing

needs of governments, public sector and financial institutions.

• Given the above, we intend to further diversify our funding sources in 2012 .

Page 5: Repsol Credit Updateimagenes.repsol.com/es_en/Repsol_Investor_Call_tcm11-615483.pdfKinteroni 250 MUS$ 2 gas/liquids fields under development in Caipipendi block W.I. Repsol : 37.5%;

5

Introduction

Strategic Plan Update and Key Accomplishments

Financial Overview

Conclusions

Agenda

Page 6: Repsol Credit Updateimagenes.repsol.com/es_en/Repsol_Investor_Call_tcm11-615483.pdfKinteroni 250 MUS$ 2 gas/liquids fields under development in Caipipendi block W.I. Repsol : 37.5%;

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Upstream - Key Accomplishments to Date

Upstream and LNG

Transformationvia successful

exploration

• Transformed into the growth engine through attractive portfolio of projects

• Delivered on the development of key upstream projects to date including I/R Libya, Brazil, Shenzi, Canaport and Peru LNG

• Strong recent exploration successes position Repsol among the top explorers worldwide: Carioca NE, North Guara, Abare, Malombe, Gavea

• Improved operational performance metrics allow favourable comparison with leading upstream players

Strategic Plan Update

Page 7: Repsol Credit Updateimagenes.repsol.com/es_en/Repsol_Investor_Call_tcm11-615483.pdfKinteroni 250 MUS$ 2 gas/liquids fields under development in Caipipendi block W.I. Repsol : 37.5%;

71. All production figures indicate gross plateau production

Development of deepwater oil field

in the U.S. GoM -W.I. Repsol : 28% - FID: 2006

Production: 121 kboe/d

Shenzi 800 MUS$

Block 57 wet gas field delineation

and developmentW.I. Repsol : 53.8 % - FID: 2009

Production: 5 Mm3/d

Kinteroni 250 MUS$

2 gas/liquids fields under development

in Caipipendi block W.I. Repsol : 37.5%; (Op) - FID:

2010Production: 11 Mm3/d (2nd

phase)

Margarita-Huacaya 370 MUS$

Development of oil and gas fieldin the shallow waters of Santos

Basin W.I. Repsol :22.2% - FID: 2011

Production: 25 kboe/d

Piracuca 350 MUS$Development

of Santos basin pre-salt oil fieldW.I. Repsol : 15% - FID: 2010

Production: 250 kboe/d

Guara1,250 MUS$

W.I. Repsol : 6% Important pre-salt discovery

in evaluation

Albacora Leste

Perla´s offshore gas field under development

W.I. Repsol : 32.5% (co-op.) -FID: 2011

Production: 8 Mm3/d (1st phase)

Cardon IV 750 MUS$ Carabobo 750 MUS$ Lubina-Montanazo 90 MUS$

Development of new oil discoveries adjacent to

production fields.W.I. Repsol : 100% (Lubina);

75% (Montan.) (Op)Production: 5.6 kboe/d

6 onshore gas fields under development

W.I. Repsol :29.3% (Op) -FID: 2009

Production: 8 Mm3/d

Reganne 400 MUS$

I/R 140 MUS$

Projects with a betterperformance

New projects not consideredin SP Update 2010-2014 (April 2010)

MUS$ NET CAPEX 10-14

Start-up of extra-heavy crude production

field in the Orinoco BeltW.I. Repsol : 11%

FID: 2012Production: 400 kboe/d

Development of oil field I/R, belonging

to the blocks NC 186 and NC 115W.I. Repsol: 20% (NC-115), 16%

(NC-186)(foreign Op.) - FID: 2007 /

Production: 75 kboe/d

Upstream - Key Projects sustaining targets

Strategic Plan Update

Page 8: Repsol Credit Updateimagenes.repsol.com/es_en/Repsol_Investor_Call_tcm11-615483.pdfKinteroni 250 MUS$ 2 gas/liquids fields under development in Caipipendi block W.I. Repsol : 37.5%;

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Proved reserve replacement ratio greater than 110%

1. All figures exclude Argentina and consider 40% dilution in Brazil assets

Total reserves(MBoe)

Production growth 3-4% p.a. to 2014and 5% p.a. from 2015 to 2019

Net production(Mboe)

Upstream - On track with 2014 objectives

Expect to deliver production targets despite dilution in Brazil

Strategic Plan Update

Exploration & Contingent Resources Key growth projects Currently Producing Assets

3-4%

2019201420102009

3%

0

50

100

150

200

250

5%

2014201020090 %

40 %

120 %

160 %

200 %

80 %

2008

> 110 %

128 %

94 %

65 %

2011 E

> 140 %

Page 9: Repsol Credit Updateimagenes.repsol.com/es_en/Repsol_Investor_Call_tcm11-615483.pdfKinteroni 250 MUS$ 2 gas/liquids fields under development in Caipipendi block W.I. Repsol : 37.5%;

9

Downstream - Key Accomplishments to Date

Downstream

• Development of best-in-class downstream portfolio which is now fully-invested (two key growth projects, Cartagena and Bilbao. completed by the end of 2011) in time and below budget

• Leading competitive position as an integrated player in Spain

• Enhanced capability to capture differentiated margins in a profitable market

• With both projects on stream we expect a premium on our refiningmargin of at least 2 US$ per barrel

Best-in-class,fully invested

assets in middle distillates

importing country

Strategic Plan Update

Page 10: Repsol Credit Updateimagenes.repsol.com/es_en/Repsol_Investor_Call_tcm11-615483.pdfKinteroni 250 MUS$ 2 gas/liquids fields under development in Caipipendi block W.I. Repsol : 37.5%;

-

-

10

Repsol CartagenaOn stream: 4Q 2011

Repsol BilbaoOn stream: 4Q 2011

From 2012 on, solid cash generation from premier integrated position in the European downstream

+16%

2010 2012

770

Distillation capacity

890

100125

+25%

Middle distillates production

4363

+47%

2010 2012 2010 2012

Conversion(kbpd) (2010 basis) (Equivalent FCC %)

Downstream - On Track with 2014 Objectives

Conversion and expansion project• Capacity increase of 120 kbpd to 220 kppd• New hydrocracker (2.5 Mtpa) and new coker

(3 Mtpa)• Conversion improvement to +76% FCC

eq. from 0% today (up to 92 % w/o Lubes)

• Total investment 3,200 M€ (2007-2012)

• New coker unit (2 Mtpa)• Conversion improvement of +32%

FCC eq. to 63%• Total investment 800 M€ (2007-2012)

Conversion project

Strategic Plan Update

Page 11: Repsol Credit Updateimagenes.repsol.com/es_en/Repsol_Investor_Call_tcm11-615483.pdfKinteroni 250 MUS$ 2 gas/liquids fields under development in Caipipendi block W.I. Repsol : 37.5%;

11

• Successful rebalancing of portfolio via partial divestment (99% stake in 2008, 57.43% as of today), cash from divestment: EUR 3,222 million

• Convergence into import parity supporting cash flow generation

• Ongoing successful oil reserve recovery

• Upside from unconventional resources i.e. Vacamuerta

• Dividends from 2008 until November 2011:US$ 5,349 million

• Enhanced growth and value through UF acquisition with synergies delivery on track

• Strong cash generation and demonstrated earnings resilience

Key Shareholdings - Key Operational Accomplishments to Date

YPF

Gas Natural Fenosa

Capturing hidden value

Vertically integrated market

leader in G&P

Strategic Plan Update

Page 12: Repsol Credit Updateimagenes.repsol.com/es_en/Repsol_Investor_Call_tcm11-615483.pdfKinteroni 250 MUS$ 2 gas/liquids fields under development in Caipipendi block W.I. Repsol : 37.5%;

12

1. Repsol Sinopec Brazil 2. YPF

Repsol57.4%

Petersen25.5%

3. Non-integrated downstream assets

Sinopec’s capital contribution 40% 7.111 M$Repsol’s value of its 60% participation in Repsol Brasil

− REFAP (Brazil)− CLH (Spain)− Other minor divestments

Free Float17.1%

10,664

7,111

Value of Repsol's offer

− 11 Analysts Coverage

− Average TP: 50.0 US$/ADR

Between Feb’08 and Sep’11 Repsol has sold 41.6% of YPF generating ~EUR3.2bn

Portfolio RebalancingStrategic Plan Update

The divestment of Repsol Brazilian Assets and YPF and other non-integrated downstream assets have contributed a very positive effect on the company liquidity position and financial ratios

Cash from divestment ~ EUR1.1 bn

Page 13: Repsol Credit Updateimagenes.repsol.com/es_en/Repsol_Investor_Call_tcm11-615483.pdfKinteroni 250 MUS$ 2 gas/liquids fields under development in Caipipendi block W.I. Repsol : 37.5%;

13

Introduction

Strategic Plan Update and Key Accomplishments

Financial Overview

Conclusions

Agenda

Page 14: Repsol Credit Updateimagenes.repsol.com/es_en/Repsol_Investor_Call_tcm11-615483.pdfKinteroni 250 MUS$ 2 gas/liquids fields under development in Caipipendi block W.I. Repsol : 37.5%;

14

Balance Sheet Overview

Property, plant and equipment 31,900

Total Assets 58,083

Sep2011

Dec2010

Dec2009

4,733Goodwill

Current assets 14,773

Total Equity 21,391

Non-current financial liabilities 15,411

Current liabilities 11,993

Total Liabilities 58,083

33,585

67,631

4,617

21,878

25,986

14,940

15,773

67,631

34,360

68,690

4,547

21,458

29,264

14,530

14,525

68,690

Million Euro

Financial Overview

Solid and robust balance sheet, increasing assets vs. decreasing financial liabilities

Repsol Group figures

Page 15: Repsol Credit Updateimagenes.repsol.com/es_en/Repsol_Investor_Call_tcm11-615483.pdfKinteroni 250 MUS$ 2 gas/liquids fields under development in Caipipendi block W.I. Repsol : 37.5%;

15

Capitalization

Capital Employed

Net Debt

Equity

27,549

34,697

2,909

28,786

EBITDA

EBIT

Net Income

Investments

7,067

4,060

1,786

3,384

Preferred Shares 3,002 CCS Adj. Net Income 1,533

Financial Highlights

6,683

4,102

1,901

4,273

1,568

(1) As of 2 December 2011; (2) Repsol EX-GN figures

(1)

Financial Overview

Sep 2011

Million Euro

Sep 2010

Net Income increased by 6.4% with investments of EUR 4,273 millionSound financial position reflected by a Net Debt / Capital Employed ratio of 8.4%

Repsol Group figures

(2)

(2)

(2)

(2)

Sep 2010

Page 16: Repsol Credit Updateimagenes.repsol.com/es_en/Repsol_Investor_Call_tcm11-615483.pdfKinteroni 250 MUS$ 2 gas/liquids fields under development in Caipipendi block W.I. Repsol : 37.5%;

16

Sep 2011

Credit Ratios – Repsol EX-GN

Net Debt

Net Debt / Capital Employed %

Capital Employed

EBITDA

EBITDA / Net Debt

EBITDA / Net Interest + Dividends Preferred Shares

Net Interest

Net Interest + Dividends Preferred Shares

EBITDA / Net Interest

17.4%

5,504

31,618

5,981

1.4

21.3

191

Sep 2010

281

31.3

8.4%

2,909

34,697

5,606

2.6

28.0

120

201

46.5

Financial Overview

Million Euro

Deleverage and increase in debt coverage ratios mainly due to significant net debt reduction

Page 17: Repsol Credit Updateimagenes.repsol.com/es_en/Repsol_Investor_Call_tcm11-615483.pdfKinteroni 250 MUS$ 2 gas/liquids fields under development in Caipipendi block W.I. Repsol : 37.5%;

17

62%23%

15%

Capital Markets Banks Others

Gross Debt Repsol EX - GN

Million Euro

Capital Markets 5,651

Bank Loans 2,063

Institutional Finance 576

Credits 247

Project Finance 450

Others 116

Total Gross Debt 9,103

Gross Debt and Liquidity Analysis as of 30 Sep 2011

External Financing available EX - GN

Million Euro

Cash and Equivalents 3,917

Total Commited Credit Lines 4,941

Long term 3,236

Short term (<12 months) 1,705

Credit Lines Utilization (247)

Total liquidity available 8,611Long Term Financial Investments* 2,277Liquidity+ Financial Investments 10,888

September 2011

Financial Overview

* Financial Investments mainly corresponds to Petersen, Hunt, Atlantic and OCP Ecuador

Capital Markets represent 62% of gross debt, with a low dependance of banks (23%)Outstanding level of liquidity

Page 18: Repsol Credit Updateimagenes.repsol.com/es_en/Repsol_Investor_Call_tcm11-615483.pdfKinteroni 250 MUS$ 2 gas/liquids fields under development in Caipipendi block W.I. Repsol : 37.5%;

18

Repsol YPF EX – GN Debt Maturity Profile as of 30 Sep 2011Million Euro

Financial Overview

Group 4Q 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 >2018

Repsol EX-GN 455 156 267 160 110 76 76 547

Capital Markets 790 794 1.018 1.996 0 0 881 0

YPF 501 789 308 77 20 19 0 68

Total 1.746 1.739 1.593 2.233 130 95 957 614

(1) Excluding Capital Markets; (2) Capital Markets Repsol EX-GN, (3) ECP

(1)

(2)

Repsol EX-GN has limited refinancing risk thanks to well-spread debt maturities mainly in theCapital Markets

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

4T 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 >2018

YPF

Capital Markets Repsol EX-GN

Repsol EX-GN

(3)

Page 19: Repsol Credit Updateimagenes.repsol.com/es_en/Repsol_Investor_Call_tcm11-615483.pdfKinteroni 250 MUS$ 2 gas/liquids fields under development in Caipipendi block W.I. Repsol : 37.5%;

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• Conservative and prudent financial discipline:

• Increase in available liquidity by increasing long-term credit lines and cash generated by portfolio divestments.

• Limited refinancing risk due to well spread debt maturities and available cash.

• Repsol’s maturities until 2015 already pre-financed with available cash and undrawn credit lines.

• Short-term debt is 2.6 times covered by available liquidity.

• Available liquidity represents 94.6% of gross debt.

• Diversification of funding allows Repsol to isolate itself from turmoil in the banking sector:

• Repsol’s primary external financing comes from the capital markets, which provide 62% of the gross debt of Repsol and controlled subsidiaries.

Financial OverviewFinancial Strategy

Page 20: Repsol Credit Updateimagenes.repsol.com/es_en/Repsol_Investor_Call_tcm11-615483.pdfKinteroni 250 MUS$ 2 gas/liquids fields under development in Caipipendi block W.I. Repsol : 37.5%;

20

• Solid domestic downstream operations (refining and marketing).• Cost-competitive production operations in Argentina, North Africa, and Trinidad and Tobago• Prudent liquidity management• Enhanced upstream position with strong production growth potential and prospects for robust reserve

replacements• “…ratings reflect its very solid domestic downstream operations, adequate liquidity, continually strong

dividends from now 68%-owned YPF S.A. and moderate financial policies” (As of March 2011)

S&P(BBB)Positive

Rating Agencies are recognising strong credit metrics as well as theimplementation of its Strategic Plan

• Strong downstream presence in Spain, Portugal and Peru, underpinned by its integrated refining and marketing network and leading market share.

• Successful exploration efforts, which led to major discoveries in areas such us Latin America (particularly offshore Brazil), North Africa and the Gulf of Mexico

• Progress made by the group in executing some of its portfolio management initiatives set out in the Strategic Plan 2010-2014, as it seeks to further rebalance its portfolio towards its integrated core businesses

• Prudent financial policies and robust liquidity• “…main competitive advantage to lie in its downstream business, specially in Spain. Its integrated business

model allows the company to actively market refined products and LPG, and maintain a positive sales margin even in a lower price environment”

Moody’s(Baa1)Stable

Fitch(BBB+)

Stable

• Repsol’s strong liquidity for the next 18 months even under a stress scenario• Resilient integrated downstream business model• Brazil transaction positive for Repsol’s creditworthiness, as it pre-fund its main upstream projects for the

2011-2014 with no additional debt• “…rating is underpinned by its rejuvenated upstream portfolio, leading regional downstream position as well

as of a fairly conservative financial framework”

Key Credit Strengths

Page 21: Repsol Credit Updateimagenes.repsol.com/es_en/Repsol_Investor_Call_tcm11-615483.pdfKinteroni 250 MUS$ 2 gas/liquids fields under development in Caipipendi block W.I. Repsol : 37.5%;

21

Introduction

Strategic Plan Update and Key Accomplishments

Financial Overview

Conclusions

Agenda

Page 22: Repsol Credit Updateimagenes.repsol.com/es_en/Repsol_Investor_Call_tcm11-615483.pdfKinteroni 250 MUS$ 2 gas/liquids fields under development in Caipipendi block W.I. Repsol : 37.5%;

22

Conclusions

• Repsol is delivering on the execution of its strategic plan, showing growth in upstream projects,

completing refinery investments and generating solid operating results in YPF. As a consequence, under

the present scenario, internal cash flow generation will allow Repsol to finance organic capex, pay

dividends and cover debt maturities.

• We continue to maintain a solid financial position with strong liquidity of EUR 8.61 billion representing

94.6% of gross debt. This liquidity covers 2.6 times short term debt.

• Repsol has low refinancing risk due to a wide spread of debt maturities and cash flow generation.

• Our conservative strategy is to maintain enough cash to service short-term debt, fund our growth in

upstream, and diversify our portfolio in OECD countries.

• Repsol’s metrics places it closer to the rating category "A“ than its actual ratings.

• Repsol has become a more diversified integrated oil company, positioned to generate growth in the most

attractive markets.

Investment Highlights

Page 23: Repsol Credit Updateimagenes.repsol.com/es_en/Repsol_Investor_Call_tcm11-615483.pdfKinteroni 250 MUS$ 2 gas/liquids fields under development in Caipipendi block W.I. Repsol : 37.5%;

December 2011

Presentation to Fixed Income InvestorsRepsol Credit Update