requirements for and use of weather, climate, and water information in the (french) energy sector...

Requirements for and Use of Weather,

Climate, and Water Information

in the (french) Energy Sector

Geneva, 28-29 September, 2006

Laurent Dubus EDF R&D

28-29 September 2006 Copyright EDF R&D - GEO Energy Expert Meeting2

Electricity Demand forecasting : why is it so important ?

Daily to weekly, monthly and seasonally : need to estimate future power demand in order to manage power production and to forecast market electricity prices

February 2005 courtesy www.rte-france.com

Power demand

Temperature

Temperature anomaly

In France, power demand is highly dependent on temperature. e.g. in winter : -1°C dT 1400 MW of extra production (~2% of total

production)+ growing importance in summer (hot waves)


Hydropower production capacity forecasting : why is it so important ?

Evolution of the daily hydropower production capacity for DRAC DURANCE basins in 2003

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1-ja

nv8-

janv

15-ja

nv22

-janv

29-ja

nv5-

févr

12-f

évr

19-f

évr

26-f

évr

5-m

ars

12-m

ars

19-m

ars

26-m

ars

2-av

r9-

avr

16-a

vr23

-avr

30-a

vr7-

mai

14-m

ai21

-mai

28-m

ai4-

juin

11-ju

in18

-juin

25-ju

in2-

juil

9-ju

il16

-juil

23-ju

il30

-juil

6-ao

ût13

-aoû

t20

-aoû

t27

-aoû

t3-

sept

10-s

ept

17-s

ept

24-s

ept

1-oc

t8-

oct

15-o

ct22

-oct

29-o

ct5-

nov

12-n

ov19

-nov

26-n

ov3-

déc

10-d

éc17

-déc

24-d

éc31

-déc

Pro

du

cti

ble

(e

n G

Wh

)

200390% quantile

50% quantile

10% quantile


Electricity prices : august 2003

“Normal” price ~ 30-50 euros/MWh

Extreme prices ~ 300-600 euros/MWh ( and hourly prices ~1000 euros/MWh !)


Production planning& optimization

Production unitsmaintenance scheduling

Water stocks management

Stocks management(coal, fuel, gas …)

Weather,Climate& Water

Load Forecasts

Renewable energiesProduction Forecasts

Electricity pricesforecasts

Management of an Electrical System : a complex problem

Many other processes…

Grid management


Courtesy DLR (German Aerospace Center)

From Dr Thierry Ranchin

What kind of weather, climate & water info is used ?

Data archivesClimate predictions & scenarii

(e.g. IPCC scenarios)

Observations(in situ & remote)

Data archivesWeather forecasts

Climate predictions(e.g. ECMWF EPS, Monthly & Seasonal fcst,

IPCC scenarios)


Courtesy DLR (German Aerospace Center)

What kind of weather, climate and water info is used ?

Air :

• Temperature

• Precipitations

• MSLP / Geopotential

• Wind

• Chemical species concentrations …

Water (Rivers & Oceans) :

• River flows & temperatures

• Coastal ocean temperatures, wave height

• Biological and chemical parameters …

… and Orography, Surface roughness, Snow Cover … and many others !


Limits to using WCW info

Main limits in the use of new types of WCW info :

• Human natural adversity to changes in well known products !

• Time needed to adapt (or even change) users’ tools

• Difficulties of end users to understand and use complex (e.g. probabilistic) information

Need of an interface between providers and end users

(R&D or engineering division of the company, or specific service of the providers)

in order to “translate” the information, and train the end users


Perspectives

• Research institutes and products providers are on the way to developing new interesting WCW products & many existing products are not yet used in an optimal way

• One key point is to develop application products in a cooperative way between providers and end-users : implies early-stage relationships

• Research products should generally turn operational in no more than 1-3 years, but not necessarily faster because end-users need time to assimilate them and to adapt there own tools


Demonstration projects

• Possible interactions with the WMO/AMP/PWS Task Force on Socio-Economic Applications of Meteorological and Hydrological Services (Ms Haleh Kootval, Dr Don Wilhite)

• WMO Madrid 2007 Conference : Secure and Sustainable Living : Social and Economic Benefits of Weather, Climate and Water Services

http://www.wmo.int/Madrid07

• Wind Farm Game by Ken Mylne and colleagues (UK MetOffice)

• Seasonal forecasting of the flood volume of the Senegal river, based on results of ARPEGE Climat model (IRD & Météo-France)

• ENSEMBLES Integrated Project (EC’s 6th Framework Programme)


Who we are Visit www.edf.com

A European energy leader with a worldwide presence

Within a context of market opening, the EDF Group is positioning itself to become a leading energy company in Europe.

The EDF Group is among the key players in the field of electricity generation, distribution and supply in Europe. Managing a generation mix with a capacity of 125.4 GWe, it provides energies and services to 42.1 million customers throughout the world, including 36.2 million in Europe. The EDF Group is made up of Electricité de France, parent company (EDF SA), and a network of 75 affiliates and investments established in Europe and around the world.

EDF and the Group network carry out energy-related activities focused on the core businesses of generation, trading, transmission, distribution, supply and services.

The EDF Group is committed to a strategy of corporate responsibility, successfully reconciling economic performance, social equity and respect for the environment.

In 2004, the EDF Group's consolidated sales amounted to €46.9 billion.

R&D Division ~2000 people

Thanks for your attention

Contact : [email protected]

requirements for and use of weather, climate, and water information in the (french) energy sector...

Documents

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laurent dubus edf rd

quantile slide

tools slide

end users rd

climate water info

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