requirements for geospatial agent simulation to strengthen the 'property-powered rail'...
DESCRIPTION
This session illustrates how geospatial attributes of payments data can be used in applied geographical economics, both micro and macro. The micro-economic example involves positioning of railway stations in the « Property-Powered Rail Open Development Model. The macro-economic example involves re-purposing trade data on currency of settlement to create the « Earth Reserve Index », a weighting system to employ biophysical indicators such as infrared reflectivity, in price benchmarking.TRANSCRIPT
Two New Uses for Payments Data inApplied Geographical Economics
Micro and Macro Examples
Joseph PotvinChair, Management Education Working Group, Open Source Initiative (OSI)
Founding Editor, The FLOW SyllabusPresident, Mobility Ottawa-Outaouais: Systems & Enterprises Inc. (Moose Inc.)
Mobilité Outaouais-Ottawa: Systèmes & Entreprises Inc.Coordinator, ERA-ART: The Earth-Reserve Archetype (ERA) Developers Group
Le Groupe de développeurs de l'Archétype d'une réserve de la Terre (ART)Doctoral Candidate, Université du Québec (DBA, Project Management)
Copyright 2014. Dual licensed CC-BY & GNU-FDL excluding graphics and charts attributed to others.
Open SourceGeospatial Foundation
OSGeo-qc | OSGeo-Ottawa | LocationTech12-13 November 2014 | Gatineau
A Quick Introduction
● Joseph Potvin● Doctoral Candidate, U Québec (DBA, Project Management) ● M.Phil., Cambridge UK (Geographical Economics)● Hon BA, McGill (Economics);● Chair, Management Education Working Group,
Open Source Initiative (Editor: “The FLOW Syllabus”);● Private sector work in 20 countries;● Six years on staff at Treasury Board Secretariat (expenditure
analysis, strategic business design & cost control);● Previously contracted to various parts of The World Bank, and
of sections of the International Development Research Centre;● Economist on drafting team for “Canada's Green Plan” (1990),
(new fiscal instruments for ecological economics; extension of national accounts on ecosystem integrity, resource availability.
A Quick Introduction
The Free/Libre/Open Way (FLOW)
A Quick IntroductionAPPLIED MICROECONOMICS
Property-Powered RailOpen Development Model
Dual Purpose:– Return on investment optimization in strategically
located commercial and residential property;
– Self-financing development of metropolitan transit systems and services based on unconstrained demand for metropolitan-scale mobility, and the market value of naturally constrained supply of property within walking distance of stations.
A Quick IntroductionAPPLIED MICROECONOMICS
Mobility Ottawa-Outaouais:Systems & Enterprises Inc.
● A federally-incorporated commercial firm (est. 2011);● Mission: To organize a consortium to bring about and operate a
region-wide private-sector passenger railway service on 400 km of existing railway in the Greater National Capital Region, based on the Property-Powered Rail Open Development Model.
Project 125 ● Identify property within walking distance of operational railway
lines throughout Canada's Greater National Capital Region with potential for sustainable increases in revenue/asset value of at least 25 per cent as a verifiable result of direct access to integrated metropolitan-scale passenger railway services.
A Quick IntroductionAPPLIED MACROECONOMICS
“Provide more flexibility for payers and payees to use multiple payment instruments”
A Quick IntroductionAPPLIED MACROECONOMICS
● Free/Libre/Open World Market Payment: From Project Cost Control Optimization to Macroeconomic Emergent Effects;
● A project-centric agent-based computational economics research model to explore the potential for resolving some systemic problems by enabling choice in the six essential attributes of contractual payment.
● Value-in-Exchange Benchmark Choices– Spot Currency Exchange Index (WM Reuters);– World Price Index (W. Coats);– Primary Commodities Index (B. Graham, N. Kaldor, L. Ussher, et.al.);– Global Equities Index (W. Engels, R. Pringle); – Earth Reserve Index (J. Potvin).
Doctorat en administration - gestion de projet
Real Property Value OptimizationAPPLIED MICROECONOMICS
Property-Powered RailOpen Development Model
ConsortiumAgreement
Supplier(e.g. fuel,
Internet, etc.)
Operatingsupplies
Rail Access
Leases
Equipment& operation
Fees
Advice analysis & assistance
Fees
Train operators
Rail access rights holders
Professionalservice firms
Marketing
Expenses
EngineeringTransitanalysis
Cost-Effectiveness(Operational Expenses)
The Property-Powered RailOpen Development Model
CC-BY 4.0
ConsortiumAgreement
Investmentsand loans
Being partof the
solution
Negotiatedobligations
Municipal &Regional
governments
Memberfees
Privateinvestors& lenders
Affinity club
members
Return on Investment(Public/Private/Community Capital)
Achievement ofdevelopment
objectives
Loan Guaranteesand Grants
Aligneddecisions
The Property-Powered RailOpen Development Model
CC-BY 4.0
AlignedDecisions
Fed-Prov/State
governments
ConsortiumAgreement
Investmentsand loans
Being partof the
solution
Negotiatedobligations
Municipal &Regional
governments
Memberfees
Privateinvestors& lenders
Affinity club
members
Return on Investment(Public/Private/Community Capital)
Achievement ofdevelopment
objectives
Loan Guaranteesand Grants
Aligneddecisions
The Property-Powered RailOpen Development Model
CC-BY 4.0
AlignedDecisions
Fed-Prov/State
governments
Required from Government:Aligned Decisions, Not Money
ConsortiumAgreement
Negotiated revenue
Comfortablesafe, practicaltransportationStatistical
increasein market
value
Negotiatedrevenue
Businessopportunity
Station
owners
Travellers
Day trippers
Frequent travellers
Land/Propertyowners &
developers
Kiosk/Site provider
Partnerentities
Passengerexperience
services
Services
Packagetransport
links
Ancillaryservice
providers
Marketable information
services
Food & beverage
i
Service sales
Value-for-Money(Operating Revenue)
License &Validation
Businessopportunity
Negotiated revenue
Negotiatedrevenue
Research& planning
clients
FeesInsight
Pay what you want
Enhanced travelexperience
The Property-Powered RailOpen Development Model
CC-BY 4.0
ConsortiumAgreement
Negotiated revenue
Comfortablesafe, practicaltransportationStatistical
increasein market
value
Negotiatedrevenue
Businessopportunity
Station
owners
Travellers
Day trippers
Frequent travellers
Land/Propertyowners &
developers
Kiosk/Site provider
Partnerentities
Passengerexperience
services
Services
Packagetransport
links
Ancillaryservice
providers
Marketable information
services
Food & beverage
i
Service sales
Value-for-Money(Operating Revenue)
License &Validation
Businessopportunity
Negotiated revenue
Negotiatedrevenue
Research& planning
clients
FeesInsight
Pay what you want
Enhanced travelexperience
The Property-Powered RailOpen Development Model
CC-BY 4.0
25% + increasein market
value
Source: Robert Dorion, P.Eng., MBAPresident, Knowledge ManagementResearch, Valuation & Advisory, Altus Group Limited
Placement of StationsAPPLIED MICROECONOMICS
● Demand for mobility relatively high;● Supply of property “within walking distance”
of a limited number of railway stations relatively low;● Data show value effect between –10% and +35%; ● Both commercial and residential properties; ● Stations can be located where income & asset values
would likely increase by at least +25%;− Based on market analysis;− Assuming normal business risk;− Contingent on all usual governance rules, processes.
Placement of StationsAPPLIED MICROECONOMICS
● Value linkage greatest when railway development and property development are fully integrated;
● Price competition begins with announcement that a station will be developed, in anticipation of service;
● Owners earn more, even if they never use the train; ● Percentage of value increase allocated to a
“train-stopping fee” in the consortium agreement;● The consortium of property owners run their own
railway business: THEY determine the optimal fee;● Requires optimization modeling.
REQ: Geospatial Multi-Agent SimulationFREE/LIBRE/OPEN SOURCE TRANSPORTATION
SIMULATION AND VALIDATION SOFTWARE
● Multi-Agent Transport Simulationhttp://www.matsim.org/
REQ: Geospatial Multi-Agent SimulationFREE/LIBRE/OPEN SOURCE TRANSPORTATION
SIMULATION AND VALIDATION SOFTWARE
● Multi-Agent Transport Simulationhttp://www.matsim.org/
● New Requirement: Add extensions for propertyvalue effects and optimization analysis based on empirical data from the regional market and from comparison markets.
REQ: Geospatial Mobility DataFREE/LIBRE/OPEN DATA + STRUCTURED MANAGEMENT
● Whole-region anonymous travel data from mobile devices– Live data streaming via the WAZE platform
http://www.waze.com/livemap/
– Historical data on main transportation arteries purchased from participating telecom companies (?)
– Disclosure Control Resource Centre, Statistics Canadahttp://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/12-539-x/2009001/control-controle-eng.htm
– TravelR for ad hoc travel demand modelinghttps://r-forge.r-project.org/projects/travelr/
● Polarsys for Long-Term Life-Cycle Managementhttp://polarsys.org/
Lieu de l'événement :Université du Québec en Outaouais (UQO), Pavillon C, Salle C0072283, boul Alexandre-Taché, Gatineau, Québec
http://openrailproperty.org
GREENING TRANSIT
Real Trains, Real Tracks, Real PropertyAPPLIED MICROECONOMICS
Montebello, QC
Arnprior ON
La Pêche, QC(Wakefield)
Bristol, QC
Montebello, QC
Arnprior ON
Smiths Falls, ON
La Pêche, QC(Wakefield)
Alexandria, ON
The Greater National Capital Region400 KM OF EXISTING RAILWAY INFRASTRUCTURE
Montebello, QC
Arnprior ON
La Pêche, QC(Wakefield)
Bristol, QC
Montebello, QC
Arnprior ON
Smiths Falls, ON
La Pêche, QC(Wakefield)
Alexandria, ON
The Greater National Capital Region400 KM OF EXISTING RAILWAY + OTTAWA LRT (STAGES 1&2)
Montebello, QC
Arnprior ONCasselman
Smiths Falls, ON
La Pêche, QC(Wakefield)
UQO/TachéLac Leamy Gréber
Lorrain
Navan
March Rd.
TerryFox
Freeman
Urban Ottawa-Gatineau
Rural & Semi-Rural
ChelseaMasson
ThursoPlaisance
PapineauvilleFarm Point
VarsLimoges
Kinburn
FitzroyQuyon
Blair
Maxville
Alexandria, ON
BellsCorners
BarrhavenRichmond
Bristol, QC
Tunney's GreenboroMerivale
TremblayCarletonBayview
The Greater National Capital RegionWHERE DO YOU LIVE? WORK? PLAY?
PAYMENTS DATAFrom Geographical MicroeconomicsTo Geographical Macroeconomics
Tweaking the Global Payments SystemAPPLIED MACROECONOMICS
“Provide more flexibility for payers and payees to use multiple payment instruments”
Est. October 2014
Tweaking the Global Payments SystemAPPLIED MACROECONOMICS
“Discuss, research, prototype, create working systems... that allow people on the Web to send each other money
as easily as they exchange instant messages and email today”
Choice in All Attributes of PaymentAPPLIED MACROECONOMICS
● Free/Libre/Open World Market Payment: From Project Cost Control Optimization to Macroeconomic Emergent Effects;
● Algorithmic pricing withchoice of value benchmark
● Earth Reserve benchmark● Free/libre/open software: ERA-ART
– Earth-Reserve Archetype (ERA)
– l'Archétype d'une réserve de la terre (ART)
Doctorat en administration - gestion de projet“work in progress”
We're accustomed to perceiving country boundaries this way
The geography of each country is reallydefined by its “Exclusive Economic Zone”
The geospatial boundaries of countries extend 200 nautical miles beyond their shorelines.
The geography of each country is reallydefined by its “Exclusive Economic Zone”
Source: http://td-architects.eu/projects/show/exclusive-economic-zone/
We're accustomed to perceiving national currencies this way
Source: http://i.imgur.com/LIRDh.jpg
Example: Italy 2010 Imports
Darker shade means greaterproportion ofIntermediary'scurrency in trade
The geospatial boundaries of currencies overlap through trade relationships.
43.4% Intermediary's currency36.6% Importer's currency (€)20.0% Exporter's currency
Source: Luigi Ventura and Mark David Witte. 2011. "An Empirical Examination of the Currency Denomination of Trade"https://editorialexpress.com/cgi-bin/conference/download.cgi?db_name=MWITFall2011&paper_id=70
Example: Italy 2010 Exports
Darker shade means greaterproportion ofIntermediary'scurrency in trade
The geospatial boundaries of currencies overlap through trade relationships.
19.6% Intermediary's currency7.7% Importer's currency72.2% Exporter's currency (€)
Source: Luigi Ventura and Mark David Witte. 2011. "An Empirical Examination of the Currency Denomination of Trade"https://editorialexpress.com/cgi-bin/conference/download.cgi?db_name=MWITFall2011&paper_id=70
Darker shade means greaterproportion ofIntermediary'scurrency in trade
The geospatial boundaries of currencies overlap through trade relationships.
Source: Luigi Ventura and Mark David Witte. 2011. "An Empirical Examination of the Currency Denomination of Trade"https://editorialexpress.com/cgi-bin/conference/download.cgi?db_name=MWITFall2011&paper_id=70
Let's use the geospatial density of currencyas a meaningful weighting factor for...
Attribution for Frequency & Severity ofSurface Temperature Anomalies
Source: http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/GlobalMaps/
Attribution for Positive & NegativeTrends in Major Pollutants
Source: http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/GlobalMaps/
ERA-ART Associates Biophysical Changewith Global Economic Activity, By Currency
The Earth Reserve System uses currency composition of trade as a weighting factor to proportionately attribute biophysical changes in global ecosystem integrity, in a particular way, to the economic activity paid in each currency.
Example: Near Infrared Reflectivity. Changes to remote sensing data on surface thermal reflectivity in Band 4 (Near Infrared 0.77-0.90 µm) reveal changes to biomass content.
Darker shade means greaterproportion ofIntermediary'scurrency in trade
ERA-ART Associates Biophysical Changewith Global Economic Activity, By Currency
Source: Luigi Ventura and Mark David Witte. 2011. "An Empirical Examination of the Currency Denomination of Trade"https://editorialexpress.com/cgi-bin/conference/download.cgi?db_name=MWITFall2011&paper_id=70
Challenge: How might we representthe distributional density of multiplecurrencies at the same time? $ €
¥
C.M.Y.K0.30.80.0
Sou
rce:
http
://co
mm
ons.
wik
imed
ia.o
rg/w
iki/F
ile:F
arbk
reis
_mit_
CM
YK
-Wer
ten.
svg
ERA-ARTsoftware will use BIS or IMF data on global payments (currency of invoicing) density tomaintain EEZ-bounded frequencydistributions as relative weights 0-100.
Also, visuallyillustrate up to three currencies at a time: Assign C,M,YK ≡ all others
0.30.80.0
0 30
080
ERA-ARTHypothetical
4-Currency ModelC, M, Y and
K≡All Others)(Note: This map's colourswere assigned randomly.)
ERA-ARTHypothetical
4-Currency ModelC, M, Y and
K≡All Others)(Note: This map's colourswere assigned randomly.)
€ ¥ $ ¤
Exclusive Economic Zones
Scientifically Verifiable DataOn Ecosystems & Resources
Currency Weighting System for the Earth Reserve Value Benchmark
Auditable Data on theCurrency of Payments
ERA-ART Associates Biophysical Changewith Global Economic Activity, By Currency
Choice in All Attributes of PaymentAPPLIED MACROECONOMICS
● Free/Libre/Open World Market Payment: From Project Cost Control Optimization toMacroeconomic Emergent Effects;
● Relative resource/ecosystemdegradation in a given currency's region of use, compared with the base year, will cause prices in that currency to become moreexpensive against prices in other currencies.
● In general, jobs and export-oriented investment will be attracted towards currency zones where ecosystem integrity and resource availability are relatively improved from a base year.
Doctorat en administration - gestion de projet“work in progress”
CONNECTINGGeographical Macroeconomics
&Geographical Microeconomics
Adapted from land-use map
supplied by the National Capital Commission (NCC)
Adapté d'une carte fournis par la Commission de lacapitale nationale (CCN)
Carbon Emission ReductionCONNECTING THE MACRO AND THE MICRO
One Double-Deck Railway Coach:● 75 cars reduced from the roads (100 seated people)● 60 km return semi-rural terminus to downtown● 120 grams of carbon emission per km car traveller
(× 1/1,000,000 because 1 metric tonne is a million grams)● 60 grams of carbon emission per km per diesel train traveller (× 1/1,000,000)
Carbon Emission ReductionCONNECTING THE MACRO AND THE MICRO
75×60×(120-60)× 1/1,000,000 = 0.27 tonnes
● More than a quarter tonne of net carbon emission reduction per coach, per trip between each semi-rural terminus and downtown Ottawa/Gatineau.
Carbon Emission ReductionCONNECTING THE MACRO AND THE MICRO
18 return trips per day (service from 6 am to 11 pm)
● 0.27×18 = 5 tonnes carbon emission reduction.
...that's per coach, per day!
Carbon Emission ReductionCONNECTING THE MACRO AND THE MICRO
3 coaches minimum per train18 trains per day (service from 6 am to 11 pm)
● 5×3 = 15 tonnes carbon reduction.
...that's per line, per day!
Carbon Emission ReductionCONNECTING THE MACRO AND THE MICRO
6 lines radiate from downtown Ottawa/Gatineau
● 15×6 = 90 tonnes of net carbon emission reduction per day for a 30 km radius from downtown.
That's more than theweight capacity of three 20' shipping containers.
Carbon Emission ReductionCONNECTING THE MACRO AND THE MICRO
250 working days per year, 25 km radius
90×250 = 22,500 tonnes of netcarbon emission reduction per year.
... not counting weekends & holidays.
Carbon Emission ReductionCONNECTING THE MACRO AND THE MICRO
250 working days per year, 25 km radius
90×250 = 22,500 tonnes of netcarbon emission reduction per year.
The largest Canadian containership can carry up to 19,500 tonnes, by comparison.
The Oceanex Connaigra
Carbon Emission ReductionCONNECTING THE MACRO AND THE MICRO
Suppose these trains are running half empty...
250 working days per year, 30 km radius
22,500×(1/2) = 11,250 tonnes of netcarbon emission reduction per year.
... still, not counting weekends & holidays.
Carbon Emission ReductionCONNECTING THE MACRO AND THE MICRO
Suppose these trains are running full capacity...
250 working days per year, 25 km radius
22,500×(1.5) = 33,750 tonnes of netcarbon emission reduction per year.
$20 per tonne carbon offset price gives: $675,000
Carbon Emission ReductionCONNECTING THE MACRO AND THE MICRO
Two New Uses for Payments Data inApplied Geographical Economics
Micro and Macro Examples
Joseph PotvinChair, Management Education Working Group, Open Source Initiative (OSI)
Founding Editor, The FLOW SyllabusPresident, Mobility Ottawa-Outaouais: Systems & Enterprises Inc. (Moose Inc.)
Mobilité Outaouais-Ottawa: Systèmes & Entreprises Inc.Coordinator, ERA-ART: The Earth-Reserve Archetype (ERA) Developers Group
Le Groupe de développeurs de l'Archétype d'une réserve de la Terre (ART)Doctoral Candidate, Université du Québec (DBA, Project Management)
Copyright 2014. Dual licensed CC-BY & GNU-FDL excluding graphics and charts attributed to others.
Open SourceGeospatial Foundation
OSGeo-qc | OSGeo-Ottawa | LocationTech12-13 November 2014 | Gatineau