research and activities on ssa at jaxa research_and_activities...collision avoidance observation...
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Research and Activities on SSA at JAXA
08 March 2018
PE Dr. Shinichi NAKAMURA
Space Tracking and Communications Center Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency
Contents of This Presentation
(1) Introducing JAXA’s New SSA System i. Characteristics and specifications ii. Latest progress
(2) Role of JAXA in the SSA field (3) How to use JAXA’s New SSA System
i. Latest research ii. JAXA’s contribution to the SSA activities in
Japan (4) Conclusions
2
JAXAの現状紹介
3
Current Issues and Future SSA System
Current Issues Aging System: Both radar and telescope systems are over 10 years old. Low Capability: Current radar can observe about 5 % of LEO debris in JSpOC catalog. Limited Contribution: SSA analysis JAXA can perform with our own data is limited.
New SSA System GEO object
Radar
Telescope
LEO object
Space debris
Analysis system
SSA system
Collision avoidance
Reentry prediction for large space debris
Search for unknown objects
Collision avoidance
Observation data
Observation data
Radar: Newly developing Enhances capability for LEO debris observation.
Telescope: Refurbishing Maintains the current capability.
Analysis System: Restructuring Enhances the capability for conjunction assessment and re-entry analysis with the data that will be provided by the new radar and the telescope.
4
JAXA’s SSA System
Bisei Space Guard Center (BSGC) [ Telescope ]
Kamisaibara Space Guard Center (KSGC) [ Radar ]
SSA Analysis System
KSGC
BSGC
Tsukuba
Satellite Operation
Conjunction Assessment
Re-entry Analysis
Okayama Pref.
JAXA Since 2001
Since 2004
5
(Newly Developing)
(Refurbishing)
Major Specifications and Schedule New System Present System
Radar Observation capability 10 cm class (650 km high） 1.6 m class （650 km high）
No. of simultaneously observable objects Max 30 Max 10
Tele-scope Limiting magnitude 18th (1 m telescope) 16.5th (50cm telescope)
18th (1 m telescope) 16.5th (50cm telescope)
Analysis system
No. of managed objects Max 100,000 Max 30,000
No. of observation paths （radar） 10,000 paths/day 200 paths/day
Observation planning Automatically Manually
FY28 (2016)
FY29 (2017)
FY30 (2018)
FY31 (2019)
FY32 (2020)
FY33 (2021)
FY34 (2022)
Trial operation
Design Construction, tests Integration
6
Construct SSA-related facilities and an operational framework integrated with MOD, JAXA and other Japanese governmental institutions. (CAO, MOFA, MEXT, MOD, etc.)
Basic Plan on Space Policy JAXA
Here
Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry
Ministry of Foreign Affairs
SSA framework in Japan
Ministry of Education, Sports, Science and Technology
Ministry of Defense
Cabinet Secretariat US STRATCOM
Governing authorities of JAXA
Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism
SSA Agreement Signer
SSA Agreement Signer
SSA Agreement
Support SSA Agreement Signer
SSA Agreement Signer
SSA Agreement Signer
SSA Agreement Signer
JAXA’s Role： (1) Upgrading SSA technology through satellite operation and SSA observation. (2) With the new SSA system, JAXA contributes to national SSA activities required by the Basic Plan on Space Policy and supports the future R&D in the SSA field.
8
One of our primary interests was how to increase the effectiveness of both of our new SSA facilities.
…What change will we have with the new facilities?
We will be able to observe at least 10,000 objects, and obtain measurement data directly.
… What can we do with the new data?
An unique research has started.
宇宙航空研究開発機構 Space research and development
agency aviation
GEOTAIL
INDEX Solar-B WINDS
GOSAT
GCOM-W SDS-4
Astronomy Satellite
Communications, Engineering Test Satellites
Earth Observation Satellites
ALOS2
Sprint-A
AJISAI Astro-E2
Satellites & Ground Systems Operated/Managed by JAXA
ERG GCOM-C SLATS
Space debris are a major threat for
operational satellites.
10 10
Radar Telescopes
LEO
Analysis obs. data
obs. data
Collision avoidance
(2) Improved prediction from Re-entry analysis
What is the prime difficulty of calculating conjunction assessment and re-entry prediction?
What if we can improve Atmospheric Drag model…?
(1) Minimum thruster to avoid space debris conjunction. Risk mitigation & Extend operation life of satellites
Common Issue : Atmospheric Drag
Strategy of Research
Traditionally…
Solar Flux Magnetic field
Atmosphere Model
Complex Physics
How can JAXA introduce something new?
Predict the orbit
As well known, it is difficult to make an accurate atmosphere model. Making one has been an ultimate dream in the flight dynamics field for a long time. Since we do not have enough orbital data of space debris, we could not even try to make an atmosphere model. However, when the operation of our new SSA system starts, we will be able to analyze orbits of many pieces of space debris.
We have just started a new research on atmosphere with an eye to the future.
12
Historical orbital change data of space
debris
Historical SF & Magnetic Index data
New input parameters
such as electron flux
etc.
New Method: AI (deep learning, data assimilation)
New Atmosphere
Model
GOAL
0
40
80
120
160
200
240
0
40
80
120
160
200
240
16/04/01 16/07/10 16/10/18 17/01/26
AP
SF
Solar Flux SF, Magnetic Index Ap (2016) SF
NICT より
685.3
685.4
685.5
685.6
685.7
685.8
685.9
686
686.1
686.2
686.3
2016/4/30 2016/8/8 2016/11/16 2017/2/24 2017/6/4 2017/9/12 2017/12/21
Cloud coverage
気象庁 より
Altitude of space debris decrease day by day due to atmospheric drag
Surface Temperature
Conclusions
13
When the operation of our new SSA system starts, we will obtain much data on space debris for various altitude, size, and inclination. These data may help us to create an improved atmosphere model using AI. This research has just started. We will continue presenting the progress of our study at conferences and symposiums, and publishing reports on our findings and insights. We hope we can see some valid results in a few years time. Thank you for your attentions.