Research ArticleProjected and Observed Aridity and Climate Change in the EastCoast of South India under RCP 45

A Ramachandran1 Dhanya Praveen1 R Jaganathan2 and K Palanivelu1

1Centre for Climate Change and Adaptation Research Anna University Guindy Chennai 600025 India2Tamil Nadu Agricultural University Coimbatore Tamil Nadu 641003 India

Correspondence should be addressed to Dhanya Praveen dhanyapraveenccgmailcom

Received 22 July 2015 Revised 3 November 2015 Accepted 8 November 2015

Academic Editor H Allen Torbert

Copyright copy 2015 A Ramachandran et al This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons AttributionLicense which permits unrestricted use distribution and reproduction in any medium provided the original work is properlycited

In the purview of global warming the present study attempts to project changes in climate and quantify the changes in aridityof two coastal districts in south India under the RCP 45 trajectory Projected climate change output generated by RegCM 44model pertaining to 14 grid points located within the study area was analyzed and processed for this purpose The meteorologicalparameters temperature and precipitations were used to create De Martonne Aridity Index to assess the spatial distribution ofaridity The original index values ranged from 137 to 164mm∘C characterizing this area as a semidry climate The outcome fromthe changed scenario analysis under RCP 45 showed that during the end of the 21st century the aridity may be increased more asthe index values tend to reduce The increasing trend in the drying phenomenon may be attributed to the rising of mean annualtemperatures

1 Introduction

Altering climate is a complex phenomenon which has intri-cate implications Arid and semiarid regions of the worldare highly sensitive to human-induced climate andor landtransformation [1] Assessing the changing patterns of aridityis a serious matter of concern in the context of global climatechangeThe studies have indicated that over the preceding 20years the problem of land degradation continued to worsendue to climate change [2] The Intergovernmental Panel onClimate Change reported increasing frequency of dry spellsand drought can be serious consequence of climate change[3] The arid and semiarid regions comprise almost 40 ofthe worldrsquos land surfaces These sites which are currentlyat the limit with respect to available water resources arelikely to be most sensitive to climate change [4 5] Thereis a high degree of certainty that global climate changeland use developments and land cover changes will leadto an accelerated decline in water availability and biologicalproduction in dry lands [3 6] The latest estimates of futureclimate change predict that there will be an increment of5ndash10 days in the consecutive dry days as per RCP 85

emission pathways for the period 2081ndash2100 for India [7] Inrecent years semiarid tracts of India have been experiencinggrowing water scarcity that can be mainly related to climatevariations and poor soil and water management

Aridity is the degree to which a climate lacks effectivelife-promoting moisture it is the opposite of humidity inthe climate sense of the term [8] In the case of aridity thelack of rainfall depends on the local climate and represents apermanent or seasonal condition Researchers have focusedon drought and extensively reported on aridity issues inparticular throughout the world [9ndash12] As per the futureprojections the arid and semiarid regions are going to beimpacted severely through heavy land degradations lossof biodiversity and food insecurities [13] Water is goingto be the major limiting factor for the healthy functioningof ecosystems especially agriculture production worldwide[14 15] Land degradation means reduction of or loss inthe biological or economic productivity and complexity ofrain-fed cropland irrigated cropland range pasture forestor woodlands resulting from land uses or from processesarising from human activities and habitation patterns [16]The weather conditions and the climate of a region constitute

Hindawi Publishing Corporatione Scientific World JournalVolume 2015 Article ID 169761 11 pageshttpdxdoiorg1011552015169761

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9984000998400998400E 79

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9984000998400998400E

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9984000998400998400E 80

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∘20

9984000998400998400E

0 510 20 30 40

(km)

574ndash745440ndash574320ndash440227ndash320

153ndash22790ndash15332ndash90minus28ndash32

Elevation (mts)

Figure 1 Location map of the study area with the RegCM grid points

basic factors for the growth and development of plants Thechange in the per capita area of arable land in India fromthe period 1950ndash55 to 2000 is 09 to 015 ha and projected todecline by 008 to 007 ha by the year 2025 [7] This increasedwater stress will lead to reduced productivity of croplandsand availability of fresh water resulting in further adverseimpacts on human well-being in dry lands Scientific reportshave already indicated that global warming is likely to pose adefining challenge on most of the economic sectors in Indiathat are driven by climate such as water resources agricultureand allied services biodiversity and forests [17]

In this context the present study focuses on projectingthe changes in the spatial distribution of climate and aridityconditions of two coastal districts of South India using DeMartonne aridity indices that determine the climatic condi-tions of a place based on temperature and precipitationThereare numerous climatic indices available using precipitationvalues alone however this index takes into account boththe precipitation and the temperature conditions of an areaIn the emerging scenario of global warming this index isthe appropriate one for characterizing and projecting futurearidity conditions It has been proven to be very usefulfor planning and managing agricultural production Thisresearch work would shed some light on the need to havearidity projections at local regional and global scales inorder to identify the most affected areas and most vulnerableecosystems and population

11 Profile of the Study Area The study region Chengalpet(erstwhile known by this name) covers present Thiruvallurand Kancheepuram coastal districts of Tamil Nadu SouthIndia (Figure 1) It is located in the northeast agroclimaticzones of Tamil Nadu between the latitudes 12∘01015840 and 13∘401015840Nand 79∘01015840 to 80∘201015840E longitude It lies on the northeast coastsof Tamil Nadu and is flanked by the Bay of Bengal to its eastwith a coastline of 1151 kms and located adjacent to ChennaiMetropolitan City the fourth largest metropolis in IndiaThegeneral slope of the study area is from northwest to southeastThe elevation of this area is within 100ndash200 meters aboveMSL

The interior part of this region is categorized as tropicalsemiarid while the coastal parts are categorized as dry sub-humid climate Under the Drought Prone Area ProgrammeKancheepuram and Thiruvallur Districts come under thesemiarid category of dry land classification [18] This areareceives rain under the influence of both southwest andnortheast monsoons Most of the rain obtained is in thenortheast monsoon season (after monsoon) due to cyclonicstorms caused by the depressions in Bay of Bengal chieflyduring October to December months The rainfall is highlyerratic The general drainage course of the study area is fromwest to east coast and drains into the Bay of Bengal Themajor rivers flowing withinThiruvallur District are AraniyarKosasthalaiyar and Cooum rivers The major rivers flowingthrough Kancheepuram areas are Palar Cheyyur Killiyar

The Scientific World Journal 3

and Vegavathi rivers Anothermajor drainage is Buckinghamcanal which runs from north to south and ends into the seaafter merging with the Palar River These rivers are seasonaland carry substantial flows during the monsoon period Thechief irrigation sources in the area are the tanks wells tubewells and canals The maximum daily temperature rarelyexceeds 43∘C and minimum daily temperatures seldom fallbelow 18∘CThe annual mean rainfall of this area is 1202mmand it has potential evapotranspiration of 1750mm Therainfall in this region shows remarkable annual variabilityThese areas were known as ldquoErie Mavattamrdquo (Lake District)earlier as the ancestors had constructed a series of tanksacross the river basins and had good practices for harvestingthe rainwater for irrigation purposes

2 Experimental Section

21 Data Analysis and Models

211 RegCM Regional Climate Model This study employeddynamical downscaling approaches using Regional ClimateModel (RegCM) 44 rc22 with HadGEM 2-ES lateralboundary conditions Regional Climate Model Version 44(RegCM44) is developed by Abdus Salam InternationalCentre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) Italy to simulate thefuture climate It is an earth system model For simulatingthe plausible future climate the latest available emissiontrajectory Representative Concentration Pathway 45 (RCP45) proposed by the AR5 report of IPCC has been used TheRCP 45 is said to be in good coherence with the observedclimate of Indian subcontinent andwas chosen for simulation[19]

212 ldquoDe Martonnerdquo Aridity Index For accomplishing theintended purposes of this study to characterize and projectthe aridity situations prevailing in the study area ldquoDeMartonnerdquo Aridity Index was employed using the simulatedclimatic output of RegCM under RCP 45 Aridity is beingdelineated for yearly time scale values using the meanprecipitation and air temperature for the 14 grids locatedin the study area The projected aridity was calculated forthe near- (2010ndash2040)mid- (2041ndash2070) end-century (2071ndash2098) periods

RegCM simulated daily outputs of mean air maximumminimum temperatures and precipitation under the RCP45 emission pathway at 14 grid points were processed foranalysis and mapping purpose The cover period of studywas separated into baseline (1971ndash2000) near-century (2010ndash2040) mid-century (2041ndash2070) and end-century (2071ndash2100) periods Zoning and changes in aridity maps wereprepared using Arc GIS tools

De Martonne aridity index (DMI) was calculated usingthe formula (Table 1)

DMI =119875

119879 + 10

(1)

where 119875 is the annual precipitation sum [mm] and 119879 is theannual mean air temperature [∘C]

Table 1 Aridity classes as per Dersquo Martonne Index (DMI) classifica-tion

Climate Values of DMI

Dry DMI lt 10

Semidry 10 le DMI le 20

Mediterranean 20 le DMI lt 24

Semihumid 24 le DMI lt 28

Humid 28 le DMI lt 35

Very humid (a) 35 le DMI le 55

(b) DMI gt 55

Table 2 Variations in the projected mean climate in the baselinenear-century mid-century and end-century

Time slice 119879max (∘C) 119879min (

∘C) RF ()2011ndash2040 0961 1048 09972040ndash2070 1852 1950 minus169022071ndash2098 2331 2503 24906

3 Results and Discussion

31 Projected Climate Change Projected changes in climatein the study area under RCP 45 showed future warming inthe study region in terms of both daytime and night timetemperatures Both the simulated mean maximum and min-imum temperatures showed significant warming (Table 2)The projections showed a rise in maximum temperature of24∘C under RCP 45 by the end of 21st century (Figure 2)The annual mean minimum temperature was projected torise by 23∘C by the near- mid- and end-century (Figure 3)The projections made by other researchers have shownsimilar trend of future warming [19ndash21]The latest simulationstudy reported by Chaturvedi et al [19] indicated a rise intemperature in the range of 29∘C to 33∘C under RCP 45 andRCP 6 pathways Winter months (January and February) areprojected to warm more than other months (Figures 4 and5) This change was seen more pronounced from baseline tonear-century period (Figures 2 and 3)

32 Temperature The projected rise in daytime temperatureshowed the greatest increase throughout the winter seasonduring the last part of the 21st century of around 28∘Cfollowed by 24∘C duringmid-century and 15∘C during near-century Annually the projections showed an increase of23∘CDuring postmonsoon season the daytime temperaturemay rise by 22∘C in the end-century period (Figure 5)

Thenighttime temperature during near- andmid-centuryshowed higher increase Annually the night time tempera-ture increased more than the daytime temperature Duringthe end-century period the projected warming would bein the range 25∘C The highest projected warming duringthe summer and monsoon period is about 27∘C and 26∘Crespectively

33 Rainfall The Projected rainfall shows maximum decline(minus3163) during the mid-century winter season followed

4 The Scientific World Journal

252729313335373941

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Ann

ual

Tem

pera

ture

(∘C)

Mean Tmax_BLMean Tmax_NC

Mean Tmax_MCMean Tmax_EC

Figure 2 Monthly and annual variations in projected the MMaxTin baseline near-century mid-century and end-century

0

05

1

15

2

25

3

Winter Summer Monsoon After monsoon Annual

NCMCEC

Tem

pera

ture

(∘C)

Figure 3 Seasonal variations in the projected MMaxT in thebaseline near-century mid-century and end-century

by minus16 in the near-century and minus96 in the end-century(Figures 6 and 7) Projected summer rainfall at the end-century showed 28 increase compared to the baselineperiod Monsoon rainfall showed a likely decline of 4around mid-century and there after showed an increase of11 from baseline period Northeast monsoon rainfall tendsto increase slightly in the mid-century and there after showsdecreaseThe annual rainfall on the other hand shows slightdecrease in the mid-century and there after increased by9 This variations would significantly impact the croppingpattern as well as the agriculture productivity

The spatial distributions of MMaxT and MMinT showedan apparent increase towards the end-century period Underthe future RCP 45 pathways RegCM model had projected arise in both MMaxT and MMinT over the study area with aclear increase of 23∘C and 25∘C for the end century (2070ndash2098) period respectively

Under the future RCP 45 pathways the spatial distribu-tions of MMaxT and MMinT and rainfall are shown in theFigures 8 and 9 Notable variations were observed spatiallywith an apparent increase towards the end of the 21st centuryThe increases in temperature were found to be more severetowards the coastal areas than the interiors The areas nearChennai City had more rapid warming than the other parts

12

14

16

18

20

26

24

22

Tem

pera

ture

(∘C)

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Ann

ual

Mean Tmin_BLMean Tmin_NC

Mean Tmin_MCMean Tmin_EC

Figure 4 Monthly and annual variations in projected the MMinTin the baseline near-century mid-century and end-century

0

05

1

15

2

25

3

Winter Summer Monsoon After monsoon Annual

NCMCEC

Tem

pera

ture

(∘C)

Figure 5 Seasonal variations in the projected MMinT in thebaseline near-century mid-century and end-century

Future projections of climate using regional climate modelsPRECIS and RegCM 3 under A1B scenario have projected anincrease in maximum and minimum temperature by 31 to37∘Cand 37 to 42∘C respectively at the end of the 21 centuryfor Tamil Nadu as compared to the baseline period 1970 to2000

Many researchers around the world have investigated theimpact of expected global climate change on regional wateravailability Employing the regional climate model ECHAM4and the results reveals a clear increase of mean annualtemperature of 12∘Cndash13∘C for the Volta region [8 22]

As far as rainfall projections were concerned duringnear- and mid-century periods the southeastern parts of thestudy area covering Tirukalukundram Latur Thiruporurand Madurantakam were likely to have a decrease in rainfallof 2 to 6 compared to the baseline period (Figure 10) Thewestern and northwestern parts were projected to receiveincreased rainfall towards the end of the 21st century

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0100200300400500600

Rain

fall

(mm

)

JanFeb MarAprMay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecRain_BL

Rain_BL

Rain_MC

Rain_MCRain_EC

Rain_NC

nFeb MarAprMay Jun J l

Figure 6 Monthly and annual variations in the projected rainfall in the baseline near-century mid-century and end-century

0

10

20

30

40

Winter Summer Monsoon AnnualAfter monsoon

NC

Chan

ge (

)

MCEC

minus10

minus20

minus30

minus40

Figure 7 Seasonal variations in the projected rainfall in thebaseline near-century mid-century and end-century

The De Martonne Aridity Index was calculated by pro-cessing and analyzing the RegCM simulated air temperatureand precipitation data of the study using 14 grid points forvarious time slices (Figure 1) Figure 11 depicts the projectedmean annual aridity index for 30-year periods for near-mid- and end-century along with the baseline period (1970ndash2000) An apparent drying trend was observed towards theend of the 21st century as there was a decline in the indexvalues The original mean index values ranged from 137 to164mm∘C characterizing this area already under semiariddry climate As the index values ranged between 13 and14mm∘C the northwestern parts of the study covering partsof Tiruttani Tiruvalankadu RKPet and Pallipattu areas arealready experiencing dry climate But projections showedthat southeastern coastal stretchmay experiencemore dryingtrends under the changed climatic conditions

The spatial distribution of theDeMartonneAridity Indexrepresented in Figure 11 denotes that semiarid climate isprevailing in the study area In particular Latur Tirukalukun-dram and Chithamur administrative blocks may likely facemore dryness in future as the projected aridity values tend todecline indicatingmore drying trends over these areas underthe RCP 45 emission scenario There was a clear variation

in dryness noted from the coastal stretch to interior partsThe values of the index seemed to increase gradually fromthe western part of the study area to east coastal regionsThis is in line with the spatial distribution of precipitationand temperature as this index takes into account both theseprime climate variables For this reason the application of DeMartonne Index led to amore precise characterization of eachgrid point taken for the entire analysis

The scale of climate change is of great concern and theobserved trends and anticipated consequences of accelerateddry spells hot days and so forth portend a series of threatsin the future for the dependent communities More frequenthot days hot nights and heat waves have also been noticedin many parts of India [18ndash21] The latest advancements inglobal and regional climate simulation models helped us tobetter understand and project future climate changes basedon different emission scenarios and trajectories [23]

Meteorological parameters were often used to createspecific climate indices to assess the temporal trend of ariditysuch asDeMartonneAridity IndexUNEPAridity Index andWaterDeficit Index which are among themost representativeof the analyzed phenomenon Many researchers around theworld have analyzed the annual and seasonal precipitationseries and carried out annual aridity indices Their findingsreveal that the sites which are currently at the limit withrespect to available water resources in semiarid regions arelikely to be most sensitive to climate change [23ndash26] Pravalie[25] attempted to quantify the trend of climate aridification ofsouthern Oltenia in the last five decades (from 1961 to 2009)using temperature precipitations and potential evapotran-spiration He concluded that the aridity trend is pronouncedafter 1980s among the five decades analyzed Growing aridityconditions are caused primarily by the lowering of the averageannual rainfall the rising of mean annual temperatures andthe increasing of potential evapotranspiration as a result ofthe annual thermal regime change after 1980

DeMartonnersquos Index (Iar-DM)was applied to understandaridity status and to determine its relationship with irrigationwater requirements of representative crops of Romania byPaltineanu et al [26] The results revealed high variabilitywith the lowest values (lt20mm∘Cminus1) for the driest periodsin the southeastern areas of Romania Irrigation is usuallyapplied in the regions with Iar-DM values of 15ndash35mm∘Cminus1Croitoru et al [27 28] have also employed aridity indices De

6 The Scientific World Journal

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9984000998400998400E 79

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9984000998400998400E 80

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9984000998400998400E

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9984000998400998400E 80

∘09984000998400998400E 80

∘20

9984000998400998400E

12∘209984000998400998400

N12∘409984000998400998400

N13∘09984000998400998400

N13∘209984000998400998400

N12∘209984000998400998400

N12∘409984000998400998400

N13∘09984000998400998400

N13∘209984000998400998400

N

12∘209984000998400998400

N12∘409984000998400998400

N13∘09984000998400998400

N13∘209984000998400998400

N12∘209984000998400998400

N12∘409984000998400998400

N13∘09984000998400998400

N13∘209984000998400998400

N

1971ndash2000 2010ndash2040

2041ndash2070 2071ndash2098

0 5 10 20 30 40

(km)

3000

ndash3050

3050

ndash3100

3100

ndash3150

3150

ndash3200

3200

ndash3250

3250

ndash3300

3300

ndash3350

3350

ndash3400

3400

ndash3450

3450

ndash3500

3500

ndash3550

3550

ndash3600

0 5 10 20 30 40

(km)

3000

ndash3050

3050

ndash3100

3100

ndash3150

3150

ndash3200

3200

ndash3250

3250

ndash3300

3300

ndash3350

3350

ndash3400

3400

ndash3450

3450

ndash3500

3500

ndash3550

3550

ndash3600

Tmax (∘C) Tmax (∘C)

Figure 8 Spatial distribution of projected MMaxT in the baseline near-century mid-century and end-century

The Scientific World Journal 7

1971ndash2000 2010ndash2040

2041ndash2070 2071ndash2098

N

W E

S79

∘20

9984000998400998400E 79

∘40

9984000998400998400E 80

∘09984000998400998400E 80

∘20

9984000998400998400E

79∘20

9984000998400998400E 79

∘40

9984000998400998400E 80

∘09984000998400998400E 80

∘20

9984000998400998400E 79

∘20

9984000998400998400E 79

∘40

9984000998400998400E 80

∘09984000998400998400E 80

∘20

9984000998400998400E

79∘20

9984000998400998400E 79

∘40

9984000998400998400E 80

∘09984000998400998400E 80

∘20

9984000998400998400E

12∘209984000998400998400

N12∘409984000998400998400

N13∘09984000998400998400

N13∘209984000998400998400

N12∘209984000998400998400

N12∘409984000998400998400

N13∘09984000998400998400

N13∘209984000998400998400

N

12∘209984000998400998400

N12∘409984000998400998400

N13∘09984000998400998400

N13∘209984000998400998400

N12∘209984000998400998400

N12∘409984000998400998400

N13∘09984000998400998400

N13∘209984000998400998400

N

0 5 10 20 30 40

(km)

180

ndash185

185

ndash190

190

ndash195

195

ndash200

200

ndash205

205

ndash210

210

ndash215

215

ndash220

220

ndash225

225

ndash230

230

ndash235

235

ndash240

0 5 10 20 30 40

(km)

180

ndash185

185

ndash190

190

ndash195

195

ndash200

200

ndash205

205

ndash210

210

ndash215

215

ndash220

220

ndash225

225

ndash230

230

ndash235

235

ndash240

Tmin (∘C) Tmin (∘C)

Figure 9 Spatial distribution of projected MMinT in the baseline near-century mid-century and end-century

Martonne aridity Index (DMI) and the Pinna CombinativeIndex (IP) in order to identify critical areas in the mostimportant agricultural regions of Romania that are prone toaridity They used data recorded in 30 locations in the extra-Carpathian areas of Romania from 1961 to 2007Themonthly

seasonal annual winter wheat and maize-growing seasondatasets of DMI and annual values of IP were also calculatedThey also identified the trends using the Mann-Kendall testand Senrsquos slope while the ordinary Kriging technique wasemployed for interpolation Their main findings were that

8 The Scientific World Journal

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2071ndash2098

79∘20

9984000998400998400E 79

∘40

9984000998400998400E 80

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9984000998400998400E 80

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9984000998400998400E 80

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∘20

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12∘209984000998400998400

N12∘409984000998400998400

N13∘09984000998400998400

N13∘209984000998400998400

N

12∘209984000998400998400

N12∘409984000998400998400

N13∘09984000998400998400

N13∘209984000998400998400

N

12∘409984000998400998400

N13∘09984000998400998400

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N

12∘409984000998400998400

N13∘09984000998400998400

N13∘209984000998400998400

N

0 5 10 20 30 40

(km)

Change in rainfall ()

Belo

wminus6

2ndash6

6ndash10

10

ndash14

14

ndash18

18

ndash22

26

ndash30

22

ndash26

30

ndash34

34

ndash38

38

ndash42

minus6

ndashminus2

minus2

ndash2

Figure 10 Spatial distribution of projected rainfall in the baseline near-century mid-century and end-century

the most vulnerable areas to semiaridity are the southeasternregions and they reported that the usage of DMI is moreappropriate for this kind of assessments compared to IPindex It can be concluded that some terrestrial ecosystemsare highly prone to rise in aridity and resultant dryness inresponse to the warming climatic indications

4 Conclusions

This research has shown that warming is pronounced in thestudy region and indicates a notable day time and night timewarming of 23∘C and 25∘C in future under RCP 45 Anapparent drying trend was observed with a gradient from

The Scientific World Journal 9

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79∘20

9984000998400998400E 79

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79∘20

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N12∘209984000998400998400

N12∘409984000998400998400

N13∘09984000998400998400

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N

12∘209984000998400998400

N12∘409984000998400998400

N13∘09984000998400998400

N13∘209984000998400998400

N12∘209984000998400998400

N12∘409984000998400998400

N13∘09984000998400998400

N13∘209984000998400998400

N

1971ndash2000 2010ndash2040

2041ndash2070 2071ndash2098

0 5 10 20 30 40

(km)0 5 10 20 30 40

(km)

137ndash144

144ndash148

148ndash152

152ndash157

157ndash164

minus049ndashminus037

minus037ndashminus025

minus025ndashminus013

minus013ndashminus002

minus002ndash011

minus079ndashminus062

minus062ndashminus046

minus046ndashminus032

minus032ndashminus017

minus017ndashminus0009

IDM (mm∘C)

IDM (mm∘C) IDM (mm∘C)

IDM (mm∘C)

minus085ndashminus065

minus065ndashminus047

minus047ndashminus031

minus031ndashminus019

minus019ndashminus002

Figure 11 Projected changes in aridity in baseline period (1971ndash2000) near-century (2010ndash2040)mid-century (2040ndash2070) and end-century(2070ndash2100)

10 The Scientific World Journal

northwestern to southeastern parts of the study area towardsthe end of the 21st century as there was a decline in the DeMartonneAridity index valuesThe index values for the base-line period ranged from 137 to 164mm∘C characterizingthis area under semiarid climate Similar studies using higherresolution projection data would provide a clearer picture atsubdistrict level Microlevel studies are the need of the houras there exists spatial variability in climatic conditions and todesign local level planning It is very indispensable for Indiato generate observed data at microlevel and make it availableto the scientific research community to validate these kinds ofstudies This would worsen the already existing acute waterscarcity issues of this area in general and may aggravate thedrying of rivers lakes and farm ponds and these areas maybecome not suitable for irrigated agriculture practices in thefuture It is a crucial call that these scientific inputs need to beincorporated while framing local policies

Conflict of Interests

The authors declare no conflict of interests regarding thepublication of this paper

Acknowledgment

The first author gratefully acknowledges the Anna CentenaryResearch Fellowship under the Department of Civil Engi-neering Anna University for providing the financial supportfor this research work

References

[1] J Evans and R Geerken ldquoDiscrimination between climateand human-induced dryland degradationrdquo Journal of AridEnvironments vol 57 no 4 pp 535ndash554 2004

[2] United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification(UNCCD) 2012 httpwwwunccdintActionProgrammesindia-eng2001pdf

[3] Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) ldquoManag-ing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climatechange adaptationrdquo inA Special Report ofWorking Groups I andII of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change C B FieldV Barros T F Stocker et al Eds p 582 Cambridge UniversityPress Cambridge UK 2012

[4] S M Vicente-Serrano J M Cuadrat-Prats and A RomoldquoAridity influence on vegetation patterns in the middle EbroValley (Spain) evaluation by means of AVHRR images andclimate interpolation techniquesrdquo Journal of Arid Environmentsvol 66 no 2 pp 353ndash375 2006

[5] A Arora R K Sairam and G C Srivastava ldquoOxidative stressand antioxidative system in plantsrdquo Current Science vol 82 no10 pp 1227ndash1238 2002

[6] Millennium Assessment ReportmdashDry Land Systems Chapter22 pp 625 October 2014 httpwwwmillenniumassessmentorgdocumentsdocument291aspxpdf

[7] Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) ldquoSum-mary forpolicymakersrdquo in Climate Change 2013 The PhysicalScience Basis Contribution of Working Group I to the FifthAssessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange T F Stocker D Qin G-K Plattner et al Eds

p 1535 Cambridge University Press Cambridge UK 2013httpwwwipccchreportar5wg1Sealevelrisescenario

[8] B Shifteh Somersquoe A Ezani and H Tabari ldquoSpatiotemporaltrends of aridity index in arid and semi-arid regions of IranrdquoTheoretical and Applied Climatology vol 111 no 1-2 pp 149ndash160 2013

[9] S Golian B Saghafian S Sheshangosht and H GhalkhanildquoComparison of classification and clustering methods in spatialrainfall pattern recognition at Northern Iranrdquo Theoretical andApplied Climatology vol 102 no 3 pp 319ndash329 2010

[10] M R Kousari M R Ekhtesasi M Tazeh M A S Naeini andMAA Zarch ldquoAn investigation of the Iranian climatic changesby considering the precipitation temperature and relativehumidity parametersrdquoTheoretical and Applied Climatology vol103 no 3-4 pp 321ndash335 2011

[11] MTurkes andGAltan ldquoAn ecological biogeography analysis ofthe impacts of climatic variations and forest fires on the naturalenvironment nature protection areas and biota in the Mugladistrictrdquo Ege Cografya Dergisi vol 22 pp 57ndash76 2013

[12] United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change(UNFCCC) Climate Change Impact Vulnerabilities and Adap-tation in Developing Countries United Nations FrameworkConvention on Climate Change New York NY USA 2007

[13] D B Lobell K G Cassman and C B Field ldquoCrop yield gapstheir importance magnitudes and causesrdquo Annual Review ofEnvironment and Resources vol 34 pp 179ndash204 2009

[14] D B Lobell W Schlenker and J Costa-Roberts ldquoClimatetrends and global crop production since 1980rdquo Science vol 333no 6042 pp 616ndash620 2011

[15] United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification(UNCCD) United Nations Convention to Combat Desertifica-tion in Countries Experiencing Serious Drought andor Deser-tification Particularly in Africa United Nations Convention toCombat Desertification (UNCCD) 1994 httpwwwunccdint

[16] United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification(UNCCD) Report 2012 httpwwwunccdintActionPro-grammesindia-eng2001pdf

[17] S U Islam N Rehman and M M Sheikh ldquoFuture change inthe frequency of warm and cold spells over Pakistan simulatedby the PRECIS regional climate modelrdquo Climatic Change vol94 no 1-2 pp 35ndash45 2009

[18] S A Rao H S Chaudhari S Pokhrel and B N GoswamildquoUnusual central Indian drought of summer monsoon 2008role of southern tropical Indian Ocean warmingrdquo Journal ofClimate vol 23 no 19 pp 5163ndash5174 2010

[19] R K Chaturvedi J Joshi M Jayaraman G Bala and N HRavindranath ldquoMulti model climate change projections forIndia under representative concentration pathwaysrdquo CurrentScience vol 103 no 7 pp 1ndash12 2012

[20] K RupaKumar and R G Ashrit ldquoRegional aspects of global cli-mate change simulations validation and assessment of climateresponse over Indian monsoon region to transient increase ofgreenhouse gases and sulfate aerosolsrdquo Mausam vol 52 no 1pp 229ndash244 2001

[21] V Geethalakshmi A Lakshmanan D Rajalakshmi et alldquoClimate change impact assessment and adaptation strategiesto sustain rice production in Cauvery basin of Tamil NadurdquoCurrent Science vol 101 no 3 pp 342ndash347 2011

[22] G Jung and H Kunstmann ldquoHigh-resolution regional climatemodeling for the Volta region of West Africardquo Journal of

The Scientific World Journal 11

Geophysical Research Atmospheres vol 112 no 23 Article IDD23108 2007

[23] UNCCD United Nations Convention to Combat Desertifica-tion in Countries Experiencing Serious Drought andor Deser-tification Particularly in Africa 1994 httpwwwunccdintenPagesdefaultaspx

[24] J Fuhrer ldquoAgroecosystem responses to combinations of ele-vated CO

2

ozone and global climate changerdquo AgricultureEcosystems and Environment vol 97 no 1ndash3 pp 1ndash20 2003

[25] R Pravalie ldquoClimate issues on aridity trends of southernOltenia in the last five decadesrdquo Geographia Technica vol 1 pp70ndash79 2013

[26] C Paltineanu N Tanasescu E Chitu and I F MihailesculdquoRelationships between the De Martonne aridity index andwater requirements of some representative crops a case studyfrom Romaniardquo International Agrophysics vol 21 no 1 pp 81ndash93 2007

[27] A-E Croitoru A Piticar C S Dragota and D C BuradaldquoRecent changes in reference evapotranspiration in RomaniardquoGlobal and Planetary Change vol 111 pp 127ndash132 2013

[28] I Hrnjak T Lukic M B Gavrilov S B Markovic MUnkasevic and I Tosic ldquoAridity in Vojvodina SerbiardquoTheoret-ical and Applied Climatology vol 115 no 1-2 pp 323ndash332 2014

Submit your manuscripts athttpwwwhindawicom

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

ClimatologyJournal of

EcologyInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

EarthquakesJournal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom

Applied ampEnvironmentalSoil Science

Volume 2014

Mining

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporation httpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

International Journal of

Geophysics

OceanographyInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Journal of Computational Environmental SciencesHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Journal ofPetroleum Engineering

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

GeochemistryHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Journal of

Atmospheric SciencesInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

OceanographyHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Advances in

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

MineralogyInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

MeteorologyAdvances in

The Scientific World JournalHindawi Publishing Corporation httpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Paleontology JournalHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

ScientificaHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Geological ResearchJournal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Geology Advances in

2 The Scientific World Journal

N

W E

S

12∘209984000998400998400

N12∘409984000998400998400

N13∘09984000998400998400

N13∘209984000998400998400

N

12∘209984000998400998400

N12∘409984000998400998400

N13∘09984000998400998400

N13∘209984000998400998400

N

79∘20

9984000998400998400E 79

∘40

9984000998400998400E 80

∘09984000998400998400E 80

∘20

9984000998400998400E

79∘20

9984000998400998400E 79

∘40

9984000998400998400E 80

∘09984000998400998400E 80

∘20

9984000998400998400E

0 510 20 30 40

(km)

574ndash745440ndash574320ndash440227ndash320

153ndash22790ndash15332ndash90minus28ndash32

Elevation (mts)

Figure 1 Location map of the study area with the RegCM grid points

basic factors for the growth and development of plants Thechange in the per capita area of arable land in India fromthe period 1950ndash55 to 2000 is 09 to 015 ha and projected todecline by 008 to 007 ha by the year 2025 [7] This increasedwater stress will lead to reduced productivity of croplandsand availability of fresh water resulting in further adverseimpacts on human well-being in dry lands Scientific reportshave already indicated that global warming is likely to pose adefining challenge on most of the economic sectors in Indiathat are driven by climate such as water resources agricultureand allied services biodiversity and forests [17]

In this context the present study focuses on projectingthe changes in the spatial distribution of climate and aridityconditions of two coastal districts of South India using DeMartonne aridity indices that determine the climatic condi-tions of a place based on temperature and precipitationThereare numerous climatic indices available using precipitationvalues alone however this index takes into account boththe precipitation and the temperature conditions of an areaIn the emerging scenario of global warming this index isthe appropriate one for characterizing and projecting futurearidity conditions It has been proven to be very usefulfor planning and managing agricultural production Thisresearch work would shed some light on the need to havearidity projections at local regional and global scales inorder to identify the most affected areas and most vulnerableecosystems and population

11 Profile of the Study Area The study region Chengalpet(erstwhile known by this name) covers present Thiruvallurand Kancheepuram coastal districts of Tamil Nadu SouthIndia (Figure 1) It is located in the northeast agroclimaticzones of Tamil Nadu between the latitudes 12∘01015840 and 13∘401015840Nand 79∘01015840 to 80∘201015840E longitude It lies on the northeast coastsof Tamil Nadu and is flanked by the Bay of Bengal to its eastwith a coastline of 1151 kms and located adjacent to ChennaiMetropolitan City the fourth largest metropolis in IndiaThegeneral slope of the study area is from northwest to southeastThe elevation of this area is within 100ndash200 meters aboveMSL

The interior part of this region is categorized as tropicalsemiarid while the coastal parts are categorized as dry sub-humid climate Under the Drought Prone Area ProgrammeKancheepuram and Thiruvallur Districts come under thesemiarid category of dry land classification [18] This areareceives rain under the influence of both southwest andnortheast monsoons Most of the rain obtained is in thenortheast monsoon season (after monsoon) due to cyclonicstorms caused by the depressions in Bay of Bengal chieflyduring October to December months The rainfall is highlyerratic The general drainage course of the study area is fromwest to east coast and drains into the Bay of Bengal Themajor rivers flowing withinThiruvallur District are AraniyarKosasthalaiyar and Cooum rivers The major rivers flowingthrough Kancheepuram areas are Palar Cheyyur Killiyar

The Scientific World Journal 3

and Vegavathi rivers Anothermajor drainage is Buckinghamcanal which runs from north to south and ends into the seaafter merging with the Palar River These rivers are seasonaland carry substantial flows during the monsoon period Thechief irrigation sources in the area are the tanks wells tubewells and canals The maximum daily temperature rarelyexceeds 43∘C and minimum daily temperatures seldom fallbelow 18∘CThe annual mean rainfall of this area is 1202mmand it has potential evapotranspiration of 1750mm Therainfall in this region shows remarkable annual variabilityThese areas were known as ldquoErie Mavattamrdquo (Lake District)earlier as the ancestors had constructed a series of tanksacross the river basins and had good practices for harvestingthe rainwater for irrigation purposes

2 Experimental Section

21 Data Analysis and Models

211 RegCM Regional Climate Model This study employeddynamical downscaling approaches using Regional ClimateModel (RegCM) 44 rc22 with HadGEM 2-ES lateralboundary conditions Regional Climate Model Version 44(RegCM44) is developed by Abdus Salam InternationalCentre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) Italy to simulate thefuture climate It is an earth system model For simulatingthe plausible future climate the latest available emissiontrajectory Representative Concentration Pathway 45 (RCP45) proposed by the AR5 report of IPCC has been used TheRCP 45 is said to be in good coherence with the observedclimate of Indian subcontinent andwas chosen for simulation[19]

212 ldquoDe Martonnerdquo Aridity Index For accomplishing theintended purposes of this study to characterize and projectthe aridity situations prevailing in the study area ldquoDeMartonnerdquo Aridity Index was employed using the simulatedclimatic output of RegCM under RCP 45 Aridity is beingdelineated for yearly time scale values using the meanprecipitation and air temperature for the 14 grids locatedin the study area The projected aridity was calculated forthe near- (2010ndash2040)mid- (2041ndash2070) end-century (2071ndash2098) periods

RegCM simulated daily outputs of mean air maximumminimum temperatures and precipitation under the RCP45 emission pathway at 14 grid points were processed foranalysis and mapping purpose The cover period of studywas separated into baseline (1971ndash2000) near-century (2010ndash2040) mid-century (2041ndash2070) and end-century (2071ndash2100) periods Zoning and changes in aridity maps wereprepared using Arc GIS tools

De Martonne aridity index (DMI) was calculated usingthe formula (Table 1)

DMI =119875

119879 + 10

(1)

where 119875 is the annual precipitation sum [mm] and 119879 is theannual mean air temperature [∘C]

Table 1 Aridity classes as per Dersquo Martonne Index (DMI) classifica-tion

Climate Values of DMI

Dry DMI lt 10

Semidry 10 le DMI le 20

Mediterranean 20 le DMI lt 24

Semihumid 24 le DMI lt 28

Humid 28 le DMI lt 35

Very humid (a) 35 le DMI le 55

(b) DMI gt 55

Table 2 Variations in the projected mean climate in the baselinenear-century mid-century and end-century

Time slice 119879max (∘C) 119879min (

∘C) RF ()2011ndash2040 0961 1048 09972040ndash2070 1852 1950 minus169022071ndash2098 2331 2503 24906

3 Results and Discussion

31 Projected Climate Change Projected changes in climatein the study area under RCP 45 showed future warming inthe study region in terms of both daytime and night timetemperatures Both the simulated mean maximum and min-imum temperatures showed significant warming (Table 2)The projections showed a rise in maximum temperature of24∘C under RCP 45 by the end of 21st century (Figure 2)The annual mean minimum temperature was projected torise by 23∘C by the near- mid- and end-century (Figure 3)The projections made by other researchers have shownsimilar trend of future warming [19ndash21]The latest simulationstudy reported by Chaturvedi et al [19] indicated a rise intemperature in the range of 29∘C to 33∘C under RCP 45 andRCP 6 pathways Winter months (January and February) areprojected to warm more than other months (Figures 4 and5) This change was seen more pronounced from baseline tonear-century period (Figures 2 and 3)

32 Temperature The projected rise in daytime temperatureshowed the greatest increase throughout the winter seasonduring the last part of the 21st century of around 28∘Cfollowed by 24∘C duringmid-century and 15∘C during near-century Annually the projections showed an increase of23∘CDuring postmonsoon season the daytime temperaturemay rise by 22∘C in the end-century period (Figure 5)

Thenighttime temperature during near- andmid-centuryshowed higher increase Annually the night time tempera-ture increased more than the daytime temperature Duringthe end-century period the projected warming would bein the range 25∘C The highest projected warming duringthe summer and monsoon period is about 27∘C and 26∘Crespectively

33 Rainfall The Projected rainfall shows maximum decline(minus3163) during the mid-century winter season followed

4 The Scientific World Journal

252729313335373941

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Ann

ual

Tem

pera

ture

(∘C)

Mean Tmax_BLMean Tmax_NC

Mean Tmax_MCMean Tmax_EC

Figure 2 Monthly and annual variations in projected the MMaxTin baseline near-century mid-century and end-century

0

05

1

15

2

25

3

Winter Summer Monsoon After monsoon Annual

NCMCEC

Tem

pera

ture

(∘C)

Figure 3 Seasonal variations in the projected MMaxT in thebaseline near-century mid-century and end-century

by minus16 in the near-century and minus96 in the end-century(Figures 6 and 7) Projected summer rainfall at the end-century showed 28 increase compared to the baselineperiod Monsoon rainfall showed a likely decline of 4around mid-century and there after showed an increase of11 from baseline period Northeast monsoon rainfall tendsto increase slightly in the mid-century and there after showsdecreaseThe annual rainfall on the other hand shows slightdecrease in the mid-century and there after increased by9 This variations would significantly impact the croppingpattern as well as the agriculture productivity

The spatial distributions of MMaxT and MMinT showedan apparent increase towards the end-century period Underthe future RCP 45 pathways RegCM model had projected arise in both MMaxT and MMinT over the study area with aclear increase of 23∘C and 25∘C for the end century (2070ndash2098) period respectively

Under the future RCP 45 pathways the spatial distribu-tions of MMaxT and MMinT and rainfall are shown in theFigures 8 and 9 Notable variations were observed spatiallywith an apparent increase towards the end of the 21st centuryThe increases in temperature were found to be more severetowards the coastal areas than the interiors The areas nearChennai City had more rapid warming than the other parts

12

14

16

18

20

26

24

22

Tem

pera

ture

(∘C)

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Ann

ual

Mean Tmin_BLMean Tmin_NC

Mean Tmin_MCMean Tmin_EC

Figure 4 Monthly and annual variations in projected the MMinTin the baseline near-century mid-century and end-century

0

05

1

15

2

25

3

Winter Summer Monsoon After monsoon Annual

NCMCEC

Tem

pera

ture

(∘C)

Figure 5 Seasonal variations in the projected MMinT in thebaseline near-century mid-century and end-century

Future projections of climate using regional climate modelsPRECIS and RegCM 3 under A1B scenario have projected anincrease in maximum and minimum temperature by 31 to37∘Cand 37 to 42∘C respectively at the end of the 21 centuryfor Tamil Nadu as compared to the baseline period 1970 to2000

Many researchers around the world have investigated theimpact of expected global climate change on regional wateravailability Employing the regional climate model ECHAM4and the results reveals a clear increase of mean annualtemperature of 12∘Cndash13∘C for the Volta region [8 22]

As far as rainfall projections were concerned duringnear- and mid-century periods the southeastern parts of thestudy area covering Tirukalukundram Latur Thiruporurand Madurantakam were likely to have a decrease in rainfallof 2 to 6 compared to the baseline period (Figure 10) Thewestern and northwestern parts were projected to receiveincreased rainfall towards the end of the 21st century

The Scientific World Journal 5

0100200300400500600

Rain

fall

(mm

)

JanFeb MarAprMay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecRain_BL

Rain_BL

Rain_MC

Rain_MCRain_EC

Rain_NC

nFeb MarAprMay Jun J l

Figure 6 Monthly and annual variations in the projected rainfall in the baseline near-century mid-century and end-century

0

10

20

30

40

Winter Summer Monsoon AnnualAfter monsoon

NC

Chan

ge (

)

MCEC

minus10

minus20

minus30

minus40

Figure 7 Seasonal variations in the projected rainfall in thebaseline near-century mid-century and end-century

The De Martonne Aridity Index was calculated by pro-cessing and analyzing the RegCM simulated air temperatureand precipitation data of the study using 14 grid points forvarious time slices (Figure 1) Figure 11 depicts the projectedmean annual aridity index for 30-year periods for near-mid- and end-century along with the baseline period (1970ndash2000) An apparent drying trend was observed towards theend of the 21st century as there was a decline in the indexvalues The original mean index values ranged from 137 to164mm∘C characterizing this area already under semiariddry climate As the index values ranged between 13 and14mm∘C the northwestern parts of the study covering partsof Tiruttani Tiruvalankadu RKPet and Pallipattu areas arealready experiencing dry climate But projections showedthat southeastern coastal stretchmay experiencemore dryingtrends under the changed climatic conditions

The spatial distribution of theDeMartonneAridity Indexrepresented in Figure 11 denotes that semiarid climate isprevailing in the study area In particular Latur Tirukalukun-dram and Chithamur administrative blocks may likely facemore dryness in future as the projected aridity values tend todecline indicatingmore drying trends over these areas underthe RCP 45 emission scenario There was a clear variation

in dryness noted from the coastal stretch to interior partsThe values of the index seemed to increase gradually fromthe western part of the study area to east coastal regionsThis is in line with the spatial distribution of precipitationand temperature as this index takes into account both theseprime climate variables For this reason the application of DeMartonne Index led to amore precise characterization of eachgrid point taken for the entire analysis

The scale of climate change is of great concern and theobserved trends and anticipated consequences of accelerateddry spells hot days and so forth portend a series of threatsin the future for the dependent communities More frequenthot days hot nights and heat waves have also been noticedin many parts of India [18ndash21] The latest advancements inglobal and regional climate simulation models helped us tobetter understand and project future climate changes basedon different emission scenarios and trajectories [23]

Meteorological parameters were often used to createspecific climate indices to assess the temporal trend of ariditysuch asDeMartonneAridity IndexUNEPAridity Index andWaterDeficit Index which are among themost representativeof the analyzed phenomenon Many researchers around theworld have analyzed the annual and seasonal precipitationseries and carried out annual aridity indices Their findingsreveal that the sites which are currently at the limit withrespect to available water resources in semiarid regions arelikely to be most sensitive to climate change [23ndash26] Pravalie[25] attempted to quantify the trend of climate aridification ofsouthern Oltenia in the last five decades (from 1961 to 2009)using temperature precipitations and potential evapotran-spiration He concluded that the aridity trend is pronouncedafter 1980s among the five decades analyzed Growing aridityconditions are caused primarily by the lowering of the averageannual rainfall the rising of mean annual temperatures andthe increasing of potential evapotranspiration as a result ofthe annual thermal regime change after 1980

DeMartonnersquos Index (Iar-DM)was applied to understandaridity status and to determine its relationship with irrigationwater requirements of representative crops of Romania byPaltineanu et al [26] The results revealed high variabilitywith the lowest values (lt20mm∘Cminus1) for the driest periodsin the southeastern areas of Romania Irrigation is usuallyapplied in the regions with Iar-DM values of 15ndash35mm∘Cminus1Croitoru et al [27 28] have also employed aridity indices De

6 The Scientific World Journal

N

W E

S79∘20

9984000998400998400E 79

∘40

9984000998400998400E 80

∘09984000998400998400E 80

∘20

9984000998400998400E

79∘20

9984000998400998400E 79

∘40

9984000998400998400E 80

∘09984000998400998400E 80

∘20

9984000998400998400E 79

∘20

9984000998400998400E 79

∘40

9984000998400998400E 80

∘09984000998400998400E 80

∘20

9984000998400998400E

79∘20

9984000998400998400E 79

∘40

9984000998400998400E 80

∘09984000998400998400E 80

∘20

9984000998400998400E

12∘209984000998400998400

N12∘409984000998400998400

N13∘09984000998400998400

N13∘209984000998400998400

N12∘209984000998400998400

N12∘409984000998400998400

N13∘09984000998400998400

N13∘209984000998400998400

N

12∘209984000998400998400

N12∘409984000998400998400

N13∘09984000998400998400

N13∘209984000998400998400

N12∘209984000998400998400

N12∘409984000998400998400

N13∘09984000998400998400

N13∘209984000998400998400

N

1971ndash2000 2010ndash2040

2041ndash2070 2071ndash2098

0 5 10 20 30 40

(km)

3000

ndash3050

3050

ndash3100

3100

ndash3150

3150

ndash3200

3200

ndash3250

3250

ndash3300

3300

ndash3350

3350

ndash3400

3400

ndash3450

3450

ndash3500

3500

ndash3550

3550

ndash3600

0 5 10 20 30 40

(km)

3000

ndash3050

3050

ndash3100

3100

ndash3150

3150

ndash3200

3200

ndash3250

3250

ndash3300

3300

ndash3350

3350

ndash3400

3400

ndash3450

3450

ndash3500

3500

ndash3550

3550

ndash3600

Tmax (∘C) Tmax (∘C)

Figure 8 Spatial distribution of projected MMaxT in the baseline near-century mid-century and end-century

The Scientific World Journal 7

1971ndash2000 2010ndash2040

2041ndash2070 2071ndash2098

N

W E

S79

∘20

9984000998400998400E 79

∘40

9984000998400998400E 80

∘09984000998400998400E 80

∘20

9984000998400998400E

79∘20

9984000998400998400E 79

∘40

9984000998400998400E 80

∘09984000998400998400E 80

∘20

9984000998400998400E 79

∘20

9984000998400998400E 79

∘40

9984000998400998400E 80

∘09984000998400998400E 80

∘20

9984000998400998400E

79∘20

9984000998400998400E 79

∘40

9984000998400998400E 80

∘09984000998400998400E 80

∘20

9984000998400998400E

12∘209984000998400998400

N12∘409984000998400998400

N13∘09984000998400998400

N13∘209984000998400998400

N12∘209984000998400998400

N12∘409984000998400998400

N13∘09984000998400998400

N13∘209984000998400998400

N

12∘209984000998400998400

N12∘409984000998400998400

N13∘09984000998400998400

N13∘209984000998400998400

N12∘209984000998400998400

N12∘409984000998400998400

N13∘09984000998400998400

N13∘209984000998400998400

N

0 5 10 20 30 40

(km)

180

ndash185

185

ndash190

190

ndash195

195

ndash200

200

ndash205

205

ndash210

210

ndash215

215

ndash220

220

ndash225

225

ndash230

230

ndash235

235

ndash240

0 5 10 20 30 40

(km)

180

ndash185

185

ndash190

190

ndash195

195

ndash200

200

ndash205

205

ndash210

210

ndash215

215

ndash220

220

ndash225

225

ndash230

230

ndash235

235

ndash240

Tmin (∘C) Tmin (∘C)

Figure 9 Spatial distribution of projected MMinT in the baseline near-century mid-century and end-century

Martonne aridity Index (DMI) and the Pinna CombinativeIndex (IP) in order to identify critical areas in the mostimportant agricultural regions of Romania that are prone toaridity They used data recorded in 30 locations in the extra-Carpathian areas of Romania from 1961 to 2007Themonthly

seasonal annual winter wheat and maize-growing seasondatasets of DMI and annual values of IP were also calculatedThey also identified the trends using the Mann-Kendall testand Senrsquos slope while the ordinary Kriging technique wasemployed for interpolation Their main findings were that

8 The Scientific World Journal

N

W E

S2010ndash2040 2041ndash2070

2071ndash2098

79∘20

9984000998400998400E 79

∘40

9984000998400998400E 80

∘09984000998400998400E 80

∘20

9984000998400998400E

79∘20

9984000998400998400E 79

∘40

9984000998400998400E 80

∘09984000998400998400E 80

∘20

9984000998400998400E 80

∘40

9984000998400998400E

79∘20

9984000998400998400E 79

∘40

9984000998400998400E 80

∘09984000998400998400E 80

∘20

9984000998400998400E

12∘209984000998400998400

N12∘409984000998400998400

N13∘09984000998400998400

N13∘209984000998400998400

N

12∘209984000998400998400

N12∘409984000998400998400

N13∘09984000998400998400

N13∘209984000998400998400

N

12∘409984000998400998400

N13∘09984000998400998400

N13∘209984000998400998400

N

12∘409984000998400998400

N13∘09984000998400998400

N13∘209984000998400998400

N

0 5 10 20 30 40

(km)

Change in rainfall ()

Belo

wminus6

2ndash6

6ndash10

10

ndash14

14

ndash18

18

ndash22

26

ndash30

22

ndash26

30

ndash34

34

ndash38

38

ndash42

minus6

ndashminus2

minus2

ndash2

Figure 10 Spatial distribution of projected rainfall in the baseline near-century mid-century and end-century

the most vulnerable areas to semiaridity are the southeasternregions and they reported that the usage of DMI is moreappropriate for this kind of assessments compared to IPindex It can be concluded that some terrestrial ecosystemsare highly prone to rise in aridity and resultant dryness inresponse to the warming climatic indications

4 Conclusions

This research has shown that warming is pronounced in thestudy region and indicates a notable day time and night timewarming of 23∘C and 25∘C in future under RCP 45 Anapparent drying trend was observed with a gradient from

The Scientific World Journal 9

N

W E

S

79∘20

9984000998400998400E 79

∘40

9984000998400998400E 80

∘09984000998400998400E 80

∘20

9984000998400998400E

79∘20

9984000998400998400E 79

∘40

9984000998400998400E 80

∘09984000998400998400E 80

∘20

9984000998400998400E 79

∘20

9984000998400998400E 79

∘40

9984000998400998400E 80

∘09984000998400998400E 80

∘20

9984000998400998400E

79∘20

9984000998400998400E 79

∘40

9984000998400998400E 80

∘09984000998400998400E 80

∘20

9984000998400998400E

12∘209984000998400998400

N12∘409984000998400998400

N13∘09984000998400998400

N13∘209984000998400998400

N12∘209984000998400998400

N12∘409984000998400998400

N13∘09984000998400998400

N13∘209984000998400998400

N

12∘209984000998400998400

N12∘409984000998400998400

N13∘09984000998400998400

N13∘209984000998400998400

N12∘209984000998400998400

N12∘409984000998400998400

N13∘09984000998400998400

N13∘209984000998400998400

N

1971ndash2000 2010ndash2040

2041ndash2070 2071ndash2098

0 5 10 20 30 40

(km)0 5 10 20 30 40

(km)

137ndash144

144ndash148

148ndash152

152ndash157

157ndash164

minus049ndashminus037

minus037ndashminus025

minus025ndashminus013

minus013ndashminus002

minus002ndash011

minus079ndashminus062

minus062ndashminus046

minus046ndashminus032

minus032ndashminus017

minus017ndashminus0009

IDM (mm∘C)

IDM (mm∘C) IDM (mm∘C)

IDM (mm∘C)

minus085ndashminus065

minus065ndashminus047

minus047ndashminus031

minus031ndashminus019

minus019ndashminus002

Figure 11 Projected changes in aridity in baseline period (1971ndash2000) near-century (2010ndash2040)mid-century (2040ndash2070) and end-century(2070ndash2100)

10 The Scientific World Journal

northwestern to southeastern parts of the study area towardsthe end of the 21st century as there was a decline in the DeMartonneAridity index valuesThe index values for the base-line period ranged from 137 to 164mm∘C characterizingthis area under semiarid climate Similar studies using higherresolution projection data would provide a clearer picture atsubdistrict level Microlevel studies are the need of the houras there exists spatial variability in climatic conditions and todesign local level planning It is very indispensable for Indiato generate observed data at microlevel and make it availableto the scientific research community to validate these kinds ofstudies This would worsen the already existing acute waterscarcity issues of this area in general and may aggravate thedrying of rivers lakes and farm ponds and these areas maybecome not suitable for irrigated agriculture practices in thefuture It is a crucial call that these scientific inputs need to beincorporated while framing local policies

Conflict of Interests

The authors declare no conflict of interests regarding thepublication of this paper

Acknowledgment

The first author gratefully acknowledges the Anna CentenaryResearch Fellowship under the Department of Civil Engi-neering Anna University for providing the financial supportfor this research work

References

[1] J Evans and R Geerken ldquoDiscrimination between climateand human-induced dryland degradationrdquo Journal of AridEnvironments vol 57 no 4 pp 535ndash554 2004

[2] United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification(UNCCD) 2012 httpwwwunccdintActionProgrammesindia-eng2001pdf

[3] Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) ldquoManag-ing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climatechange adaptationrdquo inA Special Report ofWorking Groups I andII of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change C B FieldV Barros T F Stocker et al Eds p 582 Cambridge UniversityPress Cambridge UK 2012

[4] S M Vicente-Serrano J M Cuadrat-Prats and A RomoldquoAridity influence on vegetation patterns in the middle EbroValley (Spain) evaluation by means of AVHRR images andclimate interpolation techniquesrdquo Journal of Arid Environmentsvol 66 no 2 pp 353ndash375 2006

[5] A Arora R K Sairam and G C Srivastava ldquoOxidative stressand antioxidative system in plantsrdquo Current Science vol 82 no10 pp 1227ndash1238 2002

[6] Millennium Assessment ReportmdashDry Land Systems Chapter22 pp 625 October 2014 httpwwwmillenniumassessmentorgdocumentsdocument291aspxpdf

[7] Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) ldquoSum-mary forpolicymakersrdquo in Climate Change 2013 The PhysicalScience Basis Contribution of Working Group I to the FifthAssessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange T F Stocker D Qin G-K Plattner et al Eds

p 1535 Cambridge University Press Cambridge UK 2013httpwwwipccchreportar5wg1Sealevelrisescenario

[8] B Shifteh Somersquoe A Ezani and H Tabari ldquoSpatiotemporaltrends of aridity index in arid and semi-arid regions of IranrdquoTheoretical and Applied Climatology vol 111 no 1-2 pp 149ndash160 2013

[9] S Golian B Saghafian S Sheshangosht and H GhalkhanildquoComparison of classification and clustering methods in spatialrainfall pattern recognition at Northern Iranrdquo Theoretical andApplied Climatology vol 102 no 3 pp 319ndash329 2010

[10] M R Kousari M R Ekhtesasi M Tazeh M A S Naeini andMAA Zarch ldquoAn investigation of the Iranian climatic changesby considering the precipitation temperature and relativehumidity parametersrdquoTheoretical and Applied Climatology vol103 no 3-4 pp 321ndash335 2011

[11] MTurkes andGAltan ldquoAn ecological biogeography analysis ofthe impacts of climatic variations and forest fires on the naturalenvironment nature protection areas and biota in the Mugladistrictrdquo Ege Cografya Dergisi vol 22 pp 57ndash76 2013

[12] United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change(UNFCCC) Climate Change Impact Vulnerabilities and Adap-tation in Developing Countries United Nations FrameworkConvention on Climate Change New York NY USA 2007

[13] D B Lobell K G Cassman and C B Field ldquoCrop yield gapstheir importance magnitudes and causesrdquo Annual Review ofEnvironment and Resources vol 34 pp 179ndash204 2009

[14] D B Lobell W Schlenker and J Costa-Roberts ldquoClimatetrends and global crop production since 1980rdquo Science vol 333no 6042 pp 616ndash620 2011

[15] United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification(UNCCD) United Nations Convention to Combat Desertifica-tion in Countries Experiencing Serious Drought andor Deser-tification Particularly in Africa United Nations Convention toCombat Desertification (UNCCD) 1994 httpwwwunccdint

[16] United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification(UNCCD) Report 2012 httpwwwunccdintActionPro-grammesindia-eng2001pdf

[17] S U Islam N Rehman and M M Sheikh ldquoFuture change inthe frequency of warm and cold spells over Pakistan simulatedby the PRECIS regional climate modelrdquo Climatic Change vol94 no 1-2 pp 35ndash45 2009

[18] S A Rao H S Chaudhari S Pokhrel and B N GoswamildquoUnusual central Indian drought of summer monsoon 2008role of southern tropical Indian Ocean warmingrdquo Journal ofClimate vol 23 no 19 pp 5163ndash5174 2010

[19] R K Chaturvedi J Joshi M Jayaraman G Bala and N HRavindranath ldquoMulti model climate change projections forIndia under representative concentration pathwaysrdquo CurrentScience vol 103 no 7 pp 1ndash12 2012

[20] K RupaKumar and R G Ashrit ldquoRegional aspects of global cli-mate change simulations validation and assessment of climateresponse over Indian monsoon region to transient increase ofgreenhouse gases and sulfate aerosolsrdquo Mausam vol 52 no 1pp 229ndash244 2001

[21] V Geethalakshmi A Lakshmanan D Rajalakshmi et alldquoClimate change impact assessment and adaptation strategiesto sustain rice production in Cauvery basin of Tamil NadurdquoCurrent Science vol 101 no 3 pp 342ndash347 2011

[22] G Jung and H Kunstmann ldquoHigh-resolution regional climatemodeling for the Volta region of West Africardquo Journal of

The Scientific World Journal 11

Geophysical Research Atmospheres vol 112 no 23 Article IDD23108 2007

[23] UNCCD United Nations Convention to Combat Desertifica-tion in Countries Experiencing Serious Drought andor Deser-tification Particularly in Africa 1994 httpwwwunccdintenPagesdefaultaspx

[24] J Fuhrer ldquoAgroecosystem responses to combinations of ele-vated CO

2

ozone and global climate changerdquo AgricultureEcosystems and Environment vol 97 no 1ndash3 pp 1ndash20 2003

[25] R Pravalie ldquoClimate issues on aridity trends of southernOltenia in the last five decadesrdquo Geographia Technica vol 1 pp70ndash79 2013

[26] C Paltineanu N Tanasescu E Chitu and I F MihailesculdquoRelationships between the De Martonne aridity index andwater requirements of some representative crops a case studyfrom Romaniardquo International Agrophysics vol 21 no 1 pp 81ndash93 2007

[27] A-E Croitoru A Piticar C S Dragota and D C BuradaldquoRecent changes in reference evapotranspiration in RomaniardquoGlobal and Planetary Change vol 111 pp 127ndash132 2013

[28] I Hrnjak T Lukic M B Gavrilov S B Markovic MUnkasevic and I Tosic ldquoAridity in Vojvodina SerbiardquoTheoret-ical and Applied Climatology vol 115 no 1-2 pp 323ndash332 2014

Submit your manuscripts athttpwwwhindawicom

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

ClimatologyJournal of

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Applied ampEnvironmentalSoil Science

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Mining

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Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporation httpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

International Journal of

Geophysics

OceanographyInternational Journal of

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GeochemistryHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Journal of

Atmospheric SciencesInternational Journal of

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OceanographyHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Advances in

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MineralogyInternational Journal of

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Paleontology JournalHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

ScientificaHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Geological ResearchJournal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Geology Advances in

The Scientific World Journal 3

and Vegavathi rivers Anothermajor drainage is Buckinghamcanal which runs from north to south and ends into the seaafter merging with the Palar River These rivers are seasonaland carry substantial flows during the monsoon period Thechief irrigation sources in the area are the tanks wells tubewells and canals The maximum daily temperature rarelyexceeds 43∘C and minimum daily temperatures seldom fallbelow 18∘CThe annual mean rainfall of this area is 1202mmand it has potential evapotranspiration of 1750mm Therainfall in this region shows remarkable annual variabilityThese areas were known as ldquoErie Mavattamrdquo (Lake District)earlier as the ancestors had constructed a series of tanksacross the river basins and had good practices for harvestingthe rainwater for irrigation purposes

2 Experimental Section

21 Data Analysis and Models

211 RegCM Regional Climate Model This study employeddynamical downscaling approaches using Regional ClimateModel (RegCM) 44 rc22 with HadGEM 2-ES lateralboundary conditions Regional Climate Model Version 44(RegCM44) is developed by Abdus Salam InternationalCentre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) Italy to simulate thefuture climate It is an earth system model For simulatingthe plausible future climate the latest available emissiontrajectory Representative Concentration Pathway 45 (RCP45) proposed by the AR5 report of IPCC has been used TheRCP 45 is said to be in good coherence with the observedclimate of Indian subcontinent andwas chosen for simulation[19]

212 ldquoDe Martonnerdquo Aridity Index For accomplishing theintended purposes of this study to characterize and projectthe aridity situations prevailing in the study area ldquoDeMartonnerdquo Aridity Index was employed using the simulatedclimatic output of RegCM under RCP 45 Aridity is beingdelineated for yearly time scale values using the meanprecipitation and air temperature for the 14 grids locatedin the study area The projected aridity was calculated forthe near- (2010ndash2040)mid- (2041ndash2070) end-century (2071ndash2098) periods

RegCM simulated daily outputs of mean air maximumminimum temperatures and precipitation under the RCP45 emission pathway at 14 grid points were processed foranalysis and mapping purpose The cover period of studywas separated into baseline (1971ndash2000) near-century (2010ndash2040) mid-century (2041ndash2070) and end-century (2071ndash2100) periods Zoning and changes in aridity maps wereprepared using Arc GIS tools

De Martonne aridity index (DMI) was calculated usingthe formula (Table 1)

DMI =119875

119879 + 10

(1)

where 119875 is the annual precipitation sum [mm] and 119879 is theannual mean air temperature [∘C]

Table 1 Aridity classes as per Dersquo Martonne Index (DMI) classifica-tion

Climate Values of DMI

Dry DMI lt 10

Semidry 10 le DMI le 20

Mediterranean 20 le DMI lt 24

Semihumid 24 le DMI lt 28

Humid 28 le DMI lt 35

Very humid (a) 35 le DMI le 55

(b) DMI gt 55

Table 2 Variations in the projected mean climate in the baselinenear-century mid-century and end-century

Time slice 119879max (∘C) 119879min (

∘C) RF ()2011ndash2040 0961 1048 09972040ndash2070 1852 1950 minus169022071ndash2098 2331 2503 24906

3 Results and Discussion

31 Projected Climate Change Projected changes in climatein the study area under RCP 45 showed future warming inthe study region in terms of both daytime and night timetemperatures Both the simulated mean maximum and min-imum temperatures showed significant warming (Table 2)The projections showed a rise in maximum temperature of24∘C under RCP 45 by the end of 21st century (Figure 2)The annual mean minimum temperature was projected torise by 23∘C by the near- mid- and end-century (Figure 3)The projections made by other researchers have shownsimilar trend of future warming [19ndash21]The latest simulationstudy reported by Chaturvedi et al [19] indicated a rise intemperature in the range of 29∘C to 33∘C under RCP 45 andRCP 6 pathways Winter months (January and February) areprojected to warm more than other months (Figures 4 and5) This change was seen more pronounced from baseline tonear-century period (Figures 2 and 3)

32 Temperature The projected rise in daytime temperatureshowed the greatest increase throughout the winter seasonduring the last part of the 21st century of around 28∘Cfollowed by 24∘C duringmid-century and 15∘C during near-century Annually the projections showed an increase of23∘CDuring postmonsoon season the daytime temperaturemay rise by 22∘C in the end-century period (Figure 5)

Thenighttime temperature during near- andmid-centuryshowed higher increase Annually the night time tempera-ture increased more than the daytime temperature Duringthe end-century period the projected warming would bein the range 25∘C The highest projected warming duringthe summer and monsoon period is about 27∘C and 26∘Crespectively

33 Rainfall The Projected rainfall shows maximum decline(minus3163) during the mid-century winter season followed

4 The Scientific World Journal

252729313335373941

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Ann

ual

Tem

pera

ture

(∘C)

Mean Tmax_BLMean Tmax_NC

Mean Tmax_MCMean Tmax_EC

Figure 2 Monthly and annual variations in projected the MMaxTin baseline near-century mid-century and end-century

0

05

1

15

2

25

3

Winter Summer Monsoon After monsoon Annual

NCMCEC

Tem

pera

ture

(∘C)

Figure 3 Seasonal variations in the projected MMaxT in thebaseline near-century mid-century and end-century

by minus16 in the near-century and minus96 in the end-century(Figures 6 and 7) Projected summer rainfall at the end-century showed 28 increase compared to the baselineperiod Monsoon rainfall showed a likely decline of 4around mid-century and there after showed an increase of11 from baseline period Northeast monsoon rainfall tendsto increase slightly in the mid-century and there after showsdecreaseThe annual rainfall on the other hand shows slightdecrease in the mid-century and there after increased by9 This variations would significantly impact the croppingpattern as well as the agriculture productivity

The spatial distributions of MMaxT and MMinT showedan apparent increase towards the end-century period Underthe future RCP 45 pathways RegCM model had projected arise in both MMaxT and MMinT over the study area with aclear increase of 23∘C and 25∘C for the end century (2070ndash2098) period respectively

Under the future RCP 45 pathways the spatial distribu-tions of MMaxT and MMinT and rainfall are shown in theFigures 8 and 9 Notable variations were observed spatiallywith an apparent increase towards the end of the 21st centuryThe increases in temperature were found to be more severetowards the coastal areas than the interiors The areas nearChennai City had more rapid warming than the other parts

12

14

16

18

20

26

24

22

Tem

pera

ture

(∘C)

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Ann

ual

Mean Tmin_BLMean Tmin_NC

Mean Tmin_MCMean Tmin_EC

Figure 4 Monthly and annual variations in projected the MMinTin the baseline near-century mid-century and end-century

0

05

1

15

2

25

3

Winter Summer Monsoon After monsoon Annual

NCMCEC

Tem

pera

ture

(∘C)

Figure 5 Seasonal variations in the projected MMinT in thebaseline near-century mid-century and end-century

Future projections of climate using regional climate modelsPRECIS and RegCM 3 under A1B scenario have projected anincrease in maximum and minimum temperature by 31 to37∘Cand 37 to 42∘C respectively at the end of the 21 centuryfor Tamil Nadu as compared to the baseline period 1970 to2000

Many researchers around the world have investigated theimpact of expected global climate change on regional wateravailability Employing the regional climate model ECHAM4and the results reveals a clear increase of mean annualtemperature of 12∘Cndash13∘C for the Volta region [8 22]

As far as rainfall projections were concerned duringnear- and mid-century periods the southeastern parts of thestudy area covering Tirukalukundram Latur Thiruporurand Madurantakam were likely to have a decrease in rainfallof 2 to 6 compared to the baseline period (Figure 10) Thewestern and northwestern parts were projected to receiveincreased rainfall towards the end of the 21st century

The Scientific World Journal 5

0100200300400500600

Rain

fall

(mm

)

JanFeb MarAprMay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecRain_BL

Rain_BL

Rain_MC

Rain_MCRain_EC

Rain_NC

nFeb MarAprMay Jun J l

Figure 6 Monthly and annual variations in the projected rainfall in the baseline near-century mid-century and end-century

0

10

20

30

40

Winter Summer Monsoon AnnualAfter monsoon

NC

Chan

ge (

)

MCEC

minus10

minus20

minus30

minus40

Figure 7 Seasonal variations in the projected rainfall in thebaseline near-century mid-century and end-century

The De Martonne Aridity Index was calculated by pro-cessing and analyzing the RegCM simulated air temperatureand precipitation data of the study using 14 grid points forvarious time slices (Figure 1) Figure 11 depicts the projectedmean annual aridity index for 30-year periods for near-mid- and end-century along with the baseline period (1970ndash2000) An apparent drying trend was observed towards theend of the 21st century as there was a decline in the indexvalues The original mean index values ranged from 137 to164mm∘C characterizing this area already under semiariddry climate As the index values ranged between 13 and14mm∘C the northwestern parts of the study covering partsof Tiruttani Tiruvalankadu RKPet and Pallipattu areas arealready experiencing dry climate But projections showedthat southeastern coastal stretchmay experiencemore dryingtrends under the changed climatic conditions

The spatial distribution of theDeMartonneAridity Indexrepresented in Figure 11 denotes that semiarid climate isprevailing in the study area In particular Latur Tirukalukun-dram and Chithamur administrative blocks may likely facemore dryness in future as the projected aridity values tend todecline indicatingmore drying trends over these areas underthe RCP 45 emission scenario There was a clear variation

in dryness noted from the coastal stretch to interior partsThe values of the index seemed to increase gradually fromthe western part of the study area to east coastal regionsThis is in line with the spatial distribution of precipitationand temperature as this index takes into account both theseprime climate variables For this reason the application of DeMartonne Index led to amore precise characterization of eachgrid point taken for the entire analysis

The scale of climate change is of great concern and theobserved trends and anticipated consequences of accelerateddry spells hot days and so forth portend a series of threatsin the future for the dependent communities More frequenthot days hot nights and heat waves have also been noticedin many parts of India [18ndash21] The latest advancements inglobal and regional climate simulation models helped us tobetter understand and project future climate changes basedon different emission scenarios and trajectories [23]

Meteorological parameters were often used to createspecific climate indices to assess the temporal trend of ariditysuch asDeMartonneAridity IndexUNEPAridity Index andWaterDeficit Index which are among themost representativeof the analyzed phenomenon Many researchers around theworld have analyzed the annual and seasonal precipitationseries and carried out annual aridity indices Their findingsreveal that the sites which are currently at the limit withrespect to available water resources in semiarid regions arelikely to be most sensitive to climate change [23ndash26] Pravalie[25] attempted to quantify the trend of climate aridification ofsouthern Oltenia in the last five decades (from 1961 to 2009)using temperature precipitations and potential evapotran-spiration He concluded that the aridity trend is pronouncedafter 1980s among the five decades analyzed Growing aridityconditions are caused primarily by the lowering of the averageannual rainfall the rising of mean annual temperatures andthe increasing of potential evapotranspiration as a result ofthe annual thermal regime change after 1980

DeMartonnersquos Index (Iar-DM)was applied to understandaridity status and to determine its relationship with irrigationwater requirements of representative crops of Romania byPaltineanu et al [26] The results revealed high variabilitywith the lowest values (lt20mm∘Cminus1) for the driest periodsin the southeastern areas of Romania Irrigation is usuallyapplied in the regions with Iar-DM values of 15ndash35mm∘Cminus1Croitoru et al [27 28] have also employed aridity indices De

6 The Scientific World Journal

N

W E

S79∘20

9984000998400998400E 79

∘40

9984000998400998400E 80

∘09984000998400998400E 80

∘20

9984000998400998400E

79∘20

9984000998400998400E 79

∘40

9984000998400998400E 80

∘09984000998400998400E 80

∘20

9984000998400998400E 79

∘20

9984000998400998400E 79

∘40

9984000998400998400E 80

∘09984000998400998400E 80

∘20

9984000998400998400E

79∘20

9984000998400998400E 79

∘40

9984000998400998400E 80

∘09984000998400998400E 80

∘20

9984000998400998400E

12∘209984000998400998400

N12∘409984000998400998400

N13∘09984000998400998400

N13∘209984000998400998400

N12∘209984000998400998400

N12∘409984000998400998400

N13∘09984000998400998400

N13∘209984000998400998400

N

12∘209984000998400998400

N12∘409984000998400998400

N13∘09984000998400998400

N13∘209984000998400998400

N12∘209984000998400998400

N12∘409984000998400998400

N13∘09984000998400998400

N13∘209984000998400998400

N

1971ndash2000 2010ndash2040

2041ndash2070 2071ndash2098

0 5 10 20 30 40

(km)

3000

ndash3050

3050

ndash3100

3100

ndash3150

3150

ndash3200

3200

ndash3250

3250

ndash3300

3300

ndash3350

3350

ndash3400

3400

ndash3450

3450

ndash3500

3500

ndash3550

3550

ndash3600

0 5 10 20 30 40

(km)

3000

ndash3050

3050

ndash3100

3100

ndash3150

3150

ndash3200

3200

ndash3250

3250

ndash3300

3300

ndash3350

3350

ndash3400

3400

ndash3450

3450

ndash3500

3500

ndash3550

3550

ndash3600

Tmax (∘C) Tmax (∘C)

Figure 8 Spatial distribution of projected MMaxT in the baseline near-century mid-century and end-century

The Scientific World Journal 7

1971ndash2000 2010ndash2040

2041ndash2070 2071ndash2098

N

W E

S79

∘20

9984000998400998400E 79

∘40

9984000998400998400E 80

∘09984000998400998400E 80

∘20

9984000998400998400E

79∘20

9984000998400998400E 79

∘40

9984000998400998400E 80

∘09984000998400998400E 80

∘20

9984000998400998400E 79

∘20

9984000998400998400E 79

∘40

9984000998400998400E 80

∘09984000998400998400E 80

∘20

9984000998400998400E

79∘20

9984000998400998400E 79

∘40

9984000998400998400E 80

∘09984000998400998400E 80

∘20

9984000998400998400E

12∘209984000998400998400

N12∘409984000998400998400

N13∘09984000998400998400

N13∘209984000998400998400

N12∘209984000998400998400

N12∘409984000998400998400

N13∘09984000998400998400

N13∘209984000998400998400

N

12∘209984000998400998400

N12∘409984000998400998400

N13∘09984000998400998400

N13∘209984000998400998400

N12∘209984000998400998400

N12∘409984000998400998400

N13∘09984000998400998400

N13∘209984000998400998400

N

0 5 10 20 30 40

(km)

180

ndash185

185

ndash190

190

ndash195

195

ndash200

200

ndash205

205

ndash210

210

ndash215

215

ndash220

220

ndash225

225

ndash230

230

ndash235

235

ndash240

0 5 10 20 30 40

(km)

180

ndash185

185

ndash190

190

ndash195

195

ndash200

200

ndash205

205

ndash210

210

ndash215

215

ndash220

220

ndash225

225

ndash230

230

ndash235

235

ndash240

Tmin (∘C) Tmin (∘C)

Figure 9 Spatial distribution of projected MMinT in the baseline near-century mid-century and end-century

Martonne aridity Index (DMI) and the Pinna CombinativeIndex (IP) in order to identify critical areas in the mostimportant agricultural regions of Romania that are prone toaridity They used data recorded in 30 locations in the extra-Carpathian areas of Romania from 1961 to 2007Themonthly

seasonal annual winter wheat and maize-growing seasondatasets of DMI and annual values of IP were also calculatedThey also identified the trends using the Mann-Kendall testand Senrsquos slope while the ordinary Kriging technique wasemployed for interpolation Their main findings were that

8 The Scientific World Journal

N

W E

S2010ndash2040 2041ndash2070

2071ndash2098

79∘20

9984000998400998400E 79

∘40

9984000998400998400E 80

∘09984000998400998400E 80

∘20

9984000998400998400E

79∘20

9984000998400998400E 79

∘40

9984000998400998400E 80

∘09984000998400998400E 80

∘20

9984000998400998400E 80

∘40

9984000998400998400E

79∘20

9984000998400998400E 79

∘40

9984000998400998400E 80

∘09984000998400998400E 80

∘20

9984000998400998400E

12∘209984000998400998400

N12∘409984000998400998400

N13∘09984000998400998400

N13∘209984000998400998400

N

12∘209984000998400998400

N12∘409984000998400998400

N13∘09984000998400998400

N13∘209984000998400998400

N

12∘409984000998400998400

N13∘09984000998400998400

N13∘209984000998400998400

N

12∘409984000998400998400

N13∘09984000998400998400

N13∘209984000998400998400

N

0 5 10 20 30 40

(km)

Change in rainfall ()

Belo

wminus6

2ndash6

6ndash10

10

ndash14

14

ndash18

18

ndash22

26

ndash30

22

ndash26

30

ndash34

34

ndash38

38

ndash42

minus6

ndashminus2

minus2

ndash2

Figure 10 Spatial distribution of projected rainfall in the baseline near-century mid-century and end-century

the most vulnerable areas to semiaridity are the southeasternregions and they reported that the usage of DMI is moreappropriate for this kind of assessments compared to IPindex It can be concluded that some terrestrial ecosystemsare highly prone to rise in aridity and resultant dryness inresponse to the warming climatic indications

4 Conclusions

This research has shown that warming is pronounced in thestudy region and indicates a notable day time and night timewarming of 23∘C and 25∘C in future under RCP 45 Anapparent drying trend was observed with a gradient from

The Scientific World Journal 9

N

W E

S

79∘20

9984000998400998400E 79

∘40

9984000998400998400E 80

∘09984000998400998400E 80

∘20

9984000998400998400E

79∘20

9984000998400998400E 79

∘40

9984000998400998400E 80

∘09984000998400998400E 80

∘20

9984000998400998400E 79

∘20

9984000998400998400E 79

∘40

9984000998400998400E 80

∘09984000998400998400E 80

∘20

9984000998400998400E

79∘20

9984000998400998400E 79

∘40

9984000998400998400E 80

∘09984000998400998400E 80

∘20

9984000998400998400E

12∘209984000998400998400

N12∘409984000998400998400

N13∘09984000998400998400

N13∘209984000998400998400

N12∘209984000998400998400

N12∘409984000998400998400

N13∘09984000998400998400

N13∘209984000998400998400

N

12∘209984000998400998400

N12∘409984000998400998400

N13∘09984000998400998400

N13∘209984000998400998400

N12∘209984000998400998400

N12∘409984000998400998400

N13∘09984000998400998400

N13∘209984000998400998400

N

1971ndash2000 2010ndash2040

2041ndash2070 2071ndash2098

0 5 10 20 30 40

(km)0 5 10 20 30 40

(km)

137ndash144

144ndash148

148ndash152

152ndash157

157ndash164

minus049ndashminus037

minus037ndashminus025

minus025ndashminus013

minus013ndashminus002

minus002ndash011

minus079ndashminus062

minus062ndashminus046

minus046ndashminus032

minus032ndashminus017

minus017ndashminus0009

IDM (mm∘C)

IDM (mm∘C) IDM (mm∘C)

IDM (mm∘C)

minus085ndashminus065

minus065ndashminus047

minus047ndashminus031

minus031ndashminus019

minus019ndashminus002

Figure 11 Projected changes in aridity in baseline period (1971ndash2000) near-century (2010ndash2040)mid-century (2040ndash2070) and end-century(2070ndash2100)

10 The Scientific World Journal

northwestern to southeastern parts of the study area towardsthe end of the 21st century as there was a decline in the DeMartonneAridity index valuesThe index values for the base-line period ranged from 137 to 164mm∘C characterizingthis area under semiarid climate Similar studies using higherresolution projection data would provide a clearer picture atsubdistrict level Microlevel studies are the need of the houras there exists spatial variability in climatic conditions and todesign local level planning It is very indispensable for Indiato generate observed data at microlevel and make it availableto the scientific research community to validate these kinds ofstudies This would worsen the already existing acute waterscarcity issues of this area in general and may aggravate thedrying of rivers lakes and farm ponds and these areas maybecome not suitable for irrigated agriculture practices in thefuture It is a crucial call that these scientific inputs need to beincorporated while framing local policies

Conflict of Interests

The authors declare no conflict of interests regarding thepublication of this paper

Acknowledgment

The first author gratefully acknowledges the Anna CentenaryResearch Fellowship under the Department of Civil Engi-neering Anna University for providing the financial supportfor this research work

References

[1] J Evans and R Geerken ldquoDiscrimination between climateand human-induced dryland degradationrdquo Journal of AridEnvironments vol 57 no 4 pp 535ndash554 2004

[2] United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification(UNCCD) 2012 httpwwwunccdintActionProgrammesindia-eng2001pdf

[3] Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) ldquoManag-ing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climatechange adaptationrdquo inA Special Report ofWorking Groups I andII of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change C B FieldV Barros T F Stocker et al Eds p 582 Cambridge UniversityPress Cambridge UK 2012

[4] S M Vicente-Serrano J M Cuadrat-Prats and A RomoldquoAridity influence on vegetation patterns in the middle EbroValley (Spain) evaluation by means of AVHRR images andclimate interpolation techniquesrdquo Journal of Arid Environmentsvol 66 no 2 pp 353ndash375 2006

[5] A Arora R K Sairam and G C Srivastava ldquoOxidative stressand antioxidative system in plantsrdquo Current Science vol 82 no10 pp 1227ndash1238 2002

[6] Millennium Assessment ReportmdashDry Land Systems Chapter22 pp 625 October 2014 httpwwwmillenniumassessmentorgdocumentsdocument291aspxpdf

[7] Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) ldquoSum-mary forpolicymakersrdquo in Climate Change 2013 The PhysicalScience Basis Contribution of Working Group I to the FifthAssessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange T F Stocker D Qin G-K Plattner et al Eds

p 1535 Cambridge University Press Cambridge UK 2013httpwwwipccchreportar5wg1Sealevelrisescenario

[8] B Shifteh Somersquoe A Ezani and H Tabari ldquoSpatiotemporaltrends of aridity index in arid and semi-arid regions of IranrdquoTheoretical and Applied Climatology vol 111 no 1-2 pp 149ndash160 2013

[9] S Golian B Saghafian S Sheshangosht and H GhalkhanildquoComparison of classification and clustering methods in spatialrainfall pattern recognition at Northern Iranrdquo Theoretical andApplied Climatology vol 102 no 3 pp 319ndash329 2010

[10] M R Kousari M R Ekhtesasi M Tazeh M A S Naeini andMAA Zarch ldquoAn investigation of the Iranian climatic changesby considering the precipitation temperature and relativehumidity parametersrdquoTheoretical and Applied Climatology vol103 no 3-4 pp 321ndash335 2011

[11] MTurkes andGAltan ldquoAn ecological biogeography analysis ofthe impacts of climatic variations and forest fires on the naturalenvironment nature protection areas and biota in the Mugladistrictrdquo Ege Cografya Dergisi vol 22 pp 57ndash76 2013

[12] United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change(UNFCCC) Climate Change Impact Vulnerabilities and Adap-tation in Developing Countries United Nations FrameworkConvention on Climate Change New York NY USA 2007

[13] D B Lobell K G Cassman and C B Field ldquoCrop yield gapstheir importance magnitudes and causesrdquo Annual Review ofEnvironment and Resources vol 34 pp 179ndash204 2009

[14] D B Lobell W Schlenker and J Costa-Roberts ldquoClimatetrends and global crop production since 1980rdquo Science vol 333no 6042 pp 616ndash620 2011

[15] United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification(UNCCD) United Nations Convention to Combat Desertifica-tion in Countries Experiencing Serious Drought andor Deser-tification Particularly in Africa United Nations Convention toCombat Desertification (UNCCD) 1994 httpwwwunccdint

[16] United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification(UNCCD) Report 2012 httpwwwunccdintActionPro-grammesindia-eng2001pdf

[17] S U Islam N Rehman and M M Sheikh ldquoFuture change inthe frequency of warm and cold spells over Pakistan simulatedby the PRECIS regional climate modelrdquo Climatic Change vol94 no 1-2 pp 35ndash45 2009

[18] S A Rao H S Chaudhari S Pokhrel and B N GoswamildquoUnusual central Indian drought of summer monsoon 2008role of southern tropical Indian Ocean warmingrdquo Journal ofClimate vol 23 no 19 pp 5163ndash5174 2010

[19] R K Chaturvedi J Joshi M Jayaraman G Bala and N HRavindranath ldquoMulti model climate change projections forIndia under representative concentration pathwaysrdquo CurrentScience vol 103 no 7 pp 1ndash12 2012

[20] K RupaKumar and R G Ashrit ldquoRegional aspects of global cli-mate change simulations validation and assessment of climateresponse over Indian monsoon region to transient increase ofgreenhouse gases and sulfate aerosolsrdquo Mausam vol 52 no 1pp 229ndash244 2001

[21] V Geethalakshmi A Lakshmanan D Rajalakshmi et alldquoClimate change impact assessment and adaptation strategiesto sustain rice production in Cauvery basin of Tamil NadurdquoCurrent Science vol 101 no 3 pp 342ndash347 2011

[22] G Jung and H Kunstmann ldquoHigh-resolution regional climatemodeling for the Volta region of West Africardquo Journal of

The Scientific World Journal 11

Geophysical Research Atmospheres vol 112 no 23 Article IDD23108 2007

[23] UNCCD United Nations Convention to Combat Desertifica-tion in Countries Experiencing Serious Drought andor Deser-tification Particularly in Africa 1994 httpwwwunccdintenPagesdefaultaspx

[24] J Fuhrer ldquoAgroecosystem responses to combinations of ele-vated CO

2

ozone and global climate changerdquo AgricultureEcosystems and Environment vol 97 no 1ndash3 pp 1ndash20 2003

[25] R Pravalie ldquoClimate issues on aridity trends of southernOltenia in the last five decadesrdquo Geographia Technica vol 1 pp70ndash79 2013

[26] C Paltineanu N Tanasescu E Chitu and I F MihailesculdquoRelationships between the De Martonne aridity index andwater requirements of some representative crops a case studyfrom Romaniardquo International Agrophysics vol 21 no 1 pp 81ndash93 2007

[27] A-E Croitoru A Piticar C S Dragota and D C BuradaldquoRecent changes in reference evapotranspiration in RomaniardquoGlobal and Planetary Change vol 111 pp 127ndash132 2013

[28] I Hrnjak T Lukic M B Gavrilov S B Markovic MUnkasevic and I Tosic ldquoAridity in Vojvodina SerbiardquoTheoret-ical and Applied Climatology vol 115 no 1-2 pp 323ndash332 2014

Submit your manuscripts athttpwwwhindawicom

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

ClimatologyJournal of

EcologyInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

EarthquakesJournal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom

Applied ampEnvironmentalSoil Science

Volume 2014

Mining

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporation httpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

International Journal of

Geophysics

OceanographyInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Journal of Computational Environmental SciencesHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Journal ofPetroleum Engineering

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

GeochemistryHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Journal of

Atmospheric SciencesInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

OceanographyHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Advances in

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

MineralogyInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

MeteorologyAdvances in

The Scientific World JournalHindawi Publishing Corporation httpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Paleontology JournalHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

ScientificaHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Geological ResearchJournal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Geology Advances in

4 The Scientific World Journal

252729313335373941

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Ann

ual

Tem

pera

ture

(∘C)

Mean Tmax_BLMean Tmax_NC

Mean Tmax_MCMean Tmax_EC

Figure 2 Monthly and annual variations in projected the MMaxTin baseline near-century mid-century and end-century

0

05

1

15

2

25

3

Winter Summer Monsoon After monsoon Annual

NCMCEC

Tem

pera

ture

(∘C)

Figure 3 Seasonal variations in the projected MMaxT in thebaseline near-century mid-century and end-century

by minus16 in the near-century and minus96 in the end-century(Figures 6 and 7) Projected summer rainfall at the end-century showed 28 increase compared to the baselineperiod Monsoon rainfall showed a likely decline of 4around mid-century and there after showed an increase of11 from baseline period Northeast monsoon rainfall tendsto increase slightly in the mid-century and there after showsdecreaseThe annual rainfall on the other hand shows slightdecrease in the mid-century and there after increased by9 This variations would significantly impact the croppingpattern as well as the agriculture productivity

The spatial distributions of MMaxT and MMinT showedan apparent increase towards the end-century period Underthe future RCP 45 pathways RegCM model had projected arise in both MMaxT and MMinT over the study area with aclear increase of 23∘C and 25∘C for the end century (2070ndash2098) period respectively

Under the future RCP 45 pathways the spatial distribu-tions of MMaxT and MMinT and rainfall are shown in theFigures 8 and 9 Notable variations were observed spatiallywith an apparent increase towards the end of the 21st centuryThe increases in temperature were found to be more severetowards the coastal areas than the interiors The areas nearChennai City had more rapid warming than the other parts

12

14

16

18

20

26

24

22

Tem

pera

ture

(∘C)

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Ann

ual

Mean Tmin_BLMean Tmin_NC

Mean Tmin_MCMean Tmin_EC

Figure 4 Monthly and annual variations in projected the MMinTin the baseline near-century mid-century and end-century

0

05

1

15

2

25

3

Winter Summer Monsoon After monsoon Annual

NCMCEC

Tem

pera

ture

(∘C)

Figure 5 Seasonal variations in the projected MMinT in thebaseline near-century mid-century and end-century

Future projections of climate using regional climate modelsPRECIS and RegCM 3 under A1B scenario have projected anincrease in maximum and minimum temperature by 31 to37∘Cand 37 to 42∘C respectively at the end of the 21 centuryfor Tamil Nadu as compared to the baseline period 1970 to2000

Many researchers around the world have investigated theimpact of expected global climate change on regional wateravailability Employing the regional climate model ECHAM4and the results reveals a clear increase of mean annualtemperature of 12∘Cndash13∘C for the Volta region [8 22]

As far as rainfall projections were concerned duringnear- and mid-century periods the southeastern parts of thestudy area covering Tirukalukundram Latur Thiruporurand Madurantakam were likely to have a decrease in rainfallof 2 to 6 compared to the baseline period (Figure 10) Thewestern and northwestern parts were projected to receiveincreased rainfall towards the end of the 21st century

The Scientific World Journal 5

0100200300400500600

Rain

fall

(mm

)

JanFeb MarAprMay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecRain_BL

Rain_BL

Rain_MC

Rain_MCRain_EC

Rain_NC

nFeb MarAprMay Jun J l

Figure 6 Monthly and annual variations in the projected rainfall in the baseline near-century mid-century and end-century

0

10

20

30

40

Winter Summer Monsoon AnnualAfter monsoon

NC

Chan

ge (

)

MCEC

minus10

minus20

minus30

minus40

Figure 7 Seasonal variations in the projected rainfall in thebaseline near-century mid-century and end-century

The De Martonne Aridity Index was calculated by pro-cessing and analyzing the RegCM simulated air temperatureand precipitation data of the study using 14 grid points forvarious time slices (Figure 1) Figure 11 depicts the projectedmean annual aridity index for 30-year periods for near-mid- and end-century along with the baseline period (1970ndash2000) An apparent drying trend was observed towards theend of the 21st century as there was a decline in the indexvalues The original mean index values ranged from 137 to164mm∘C characterizing this area already under semiariddry climate As the index values ranged between 13 and14mm∘C the northwestern parts of the study covering partsof Tiruttani Tiruvalankadu RKPet and Pallipattu areas arealready experiencing dry climate But projections showedthat southeastern coastal stretchmay experiencemore dryingtrends under the changed climatic conditions

The spatial distribution of theDeMartonneAridity Indexrepresented in Figure 11 denotes that semiarid climate isprevailing in the study area In particular Latur Tirukalukun-dram and Chithamur administrative blocks may likely facemore dryness in future as the projected aridity values tend todecline indicatingmore drying trends over these areas underthe RCP 45 emission scenario There was a clear variation

in dryness noted from the coastal stretch to interior partsThe values of the index seemed to increase gradually fromthe western part of the study area to east coastal regionsThis is in line with the spatial distribution of precipitationand temperature as this index takes into account both theseprime climate variables For this reason the application of DeMartonne Index led to amore precise characterization of eachgrid point taken for the entire analysis

The scale of climate change is of great concern and theobserved trends and anticipated consequences of accelerateddry spells hot days and so forth portend a series of threatsin the future for the dependent communities More frequenthot days hot nights and heat waves have also been noticedin many parts of India [18ndash21] The latest advancements inglobal and regional climate simulation models helped us tobetter understand and project future climate changes basedon different emission scenarios and trajectories [23]

Meteorological parameters were often used to createspecific climate indices to assess the temporal trend of ariditysuch asDeMartonneAridity IndexUNEPAridity Index andWaterDeficit Index which are among themost representativeof the analyzed phenomenon Many researchers around theworld have analyzed the annual and seasonal precipitationseries and carried out annual aridity indices Their findingsreveal that the sites which are currently at the limit withrespect to available water resources in semiarid regions arelikely to be most sensitive to climate change [23ndash26] Pravalie[25] attempted to quantify the trend of climate aridification ofsouthern Oltenia in the last five decades (from 1961 to 2009)using temperature precipitations and potential evapotran-spiration He concluded that the aridity trend is pronouncedafter 1980s among the five decades analyzed Growing aridityconditions are caused primarily by the lowering of the averageannual rainfall the rising of mean annual temperatures andthe increasing of potential evapotranspiration as a result ofthe annual thermal regime change after 1980

DeMartonnersquos Index (Iar-DM)was applied to understandaridity status and to determine its relationship with irrigationwater requirements of representative crops of Romania byPaltineanu et al [26] The results revealed high variabilitywith the lowest values (lt20mm∘Cminus1) for the driest periodsin the southeastern areas of Romania Irrigation is usuallyapplied in the regions with Iar-DM values of 15ndash35mm∘Cminus1Croitoru et al [27 28] have also employed aridity indices De

6 The Scientific World Journal

N

W E

S79∘20

9984000998400998400E 79

∘40

9984000998400998400E 80

∘09984000998400998400E 80

∘20

9984000998400998400E

79∘20

9984000998400998400E 79

∘40

9984000998400998400E 80

∘09984000998400998400E 80

∘20

9984000998400998400E 79

∘20

9984000998400998400E 79

∘40

9984000998400998400E 80

∘09984000998400998400E 80

∘20

9984000998400998400E

79∘20

9984000998400998400E 79

∘40

9984000998400998400E 80

∘09984000998400998400E 80

∘20

9984000998400998400E

12∘209984000998400998400

N12∘409984000998400998400

N13∘09984000998400998400

N13∘209984000998400998400

N12∘209984000998400998400

N12∘409984000998400998400

N13∘09984000998400998400

N13∘209984000998400998400

N

12∘209984000998400998400

N12∘409984000998400998400

N13∘09984000998400998400

N13∘209984000998400998400

N12∘209984000998400998400

N12∘409984000998400998400

N13∘09984000998400998400

N13∘209984000998400998400

N

1971ndash2000 2010ndash2040

2041ndash2070 2071ndash2098

0 5 10 20 30 40

(km)

3000

ndash3050

3050

ndash3100

3100

ndash3150

3150

ndash3200

3200

ndash3250

3250

ndash3300

3300

ndash3350

3350

ndash3400

3400

ndash3450

3450

ndash3500

3500

ndash3550

3550

ndash3600

0 5 10 20 30 40

(km)

3000

ndash3050

3050

ndash3100

3100

ndash3150

3150

ndash3200

3200

ndash3250

3250

ndash3300

3300

ndash3350

3350

ndash3400

3400

ndash3450

3450

ndash3500

3500

ndash3550

3550

ndash3600

Tmax (∘C) Tmax (∘C)

Figure 8 Spatial distribution of projected MMaxT in the baseline near-century mid-century and end-century

The Scientific World Journal 7

1971ndash2000 2010ndash2040

2041ndash2070 2071ndash2098

N

W E

S79

∘20

9984000998400998400E 79

∘40

9984000998400998400E 80

∘09984000998400998400E 80

∘20

9984000998400998400E

79∘20

9984000998400998400E 79

∘40

9984000998400998400E 80

∘09984000998400998400E 80

∘20

9984000998400998400E 79

∘20

9984000998400998400E 79

∘40

9984000998400998400E 80

∘09984000998400998400E 80

∘20

9984000998400998400E

79∘20

9984000998400998400E 79

∘40

9984000998400998400E 80

∘09984000998400998400E 80

∘20

9984000998400998400E

12∘209984000998400998400

N12∘409984000998400998400

N13∘09984000998400998400

N13∘209984000998400998400

N12∘209984000998400998400

N12∘409984000998400998400

N13∘09984000998400998400

N13∘209984000998400998400

N

12∘209984000998400998400

N12∘409984000998400998400

N13∘09984000998400998400

N13∘209984000998400998400

N12∘209984000998400998400

N12∘409984000998400998400

N13∘09984000998400998400

N13∘209984000998400998400

N

0 5 10 20 30 40

(km)

180

ndash185

185

ndash190

190

ndash195

195

ndash200

200

ndash205

205

ndash210

210

ndash215

215

ndash220

220

ndash225

225

ndash230

230

ndash235

235

ndash240

0 5 10 20 30 40

(km)

180

ndash185

185

ndash190

190

ndash195

195

ndash200

200

ndash205

205

ndash210

210

ndash215

215

ndash220

220

ndash225

225

ndash230

230

ndash235

235

ndash240

Tmin (∘C) Tmin (∘C)

Figure 9 Spatial distribution of projected MMinT in the baseline near-century mid-century and end-century

Martonne aridity Index (DMI) and the Pinna CombinativeIndex (IP) in order to identify critical areas in the mostimportant agricultural regions of Romania that are prone toaridity They used data recorded in 30 locations in the extra-Carpathian areas of Romania from 1961 to 2007Themonthly

seasonal annual winter wheat and maize-growing seasondatasets of DMI and annual values of IP were also calculatedThey also identified the trends using the Mann-Kendall testand Senrsquos slope while the ordinary Kriging technique wasemployed for interpolation Their main findings were that

8 The Scientific World Journal

N

W E

S2010ndash2040 2041ndash2070

2071ndash2098

79∘20

9984000998400998400E 79

∘40

9984000998400998400E 80

∘09984000998400998400E 80

∘20

9984000998400998400E

79∘20

9984000998400998400E 79

∘40

9984000998400998400E 80

∘09984000998400998400E 80

∘20

9984000998400998400E 80

∘40

9984000998400998400E

79∘20

9984000998400998400E 79

∘40

9984000998400998400E 80

∘09984000998400998400E 80

∘20

9984000998400998400E

12∘209984000998400998400

N12∘409984000998400998400

N13∘09984000998400998400

N13∘209984000998400998400

N

12∘209984000998400998400

N12∘409984000998400998400

N13∘09984000998400998400

N13∘209984000998400998400

N

12∘409984000998400998400

N13∘09984000998400998400

N13∘209984000998400998400

N

12∘409984000998400998400

N13∘09984000998400998400

N13∘209984000998400998400

N

0 5 10 20 30 40

(km)

Change in rainfall ()

Belo

wminus6

2ndash6

6ndash10

10

ndash14

14

ndash18

18

ndash22

26

ndash30

22

ndash26

30

ndash34

34

ndash38

38

ndash42

minus6

ndashminus2

minus2

ndash2

Figure 10 Spatial distribution of projected rainfall in the baseline near-century mid-century and end-century

the most vulnerable areas to semiaridity are the southeasternregions and they reported that the usage of DMI is moreappropriate for this kind of assessments compared to IPindex It can be concluded that some terrestrial ecosystemsare highly prone to rise in aridity and resultant dryness inresponse to the warming climatic indications

4 Conclusions

This research has shown that warming is pronounced in thestudy region and indicates a notable day time and night timewarming of 23∘C and 25∘C in future under RCP 45 Anapparent drying trend was observed with a gradient from

The Scientific World Journal 9

N

W E

S

79∘20

9984000998400998400E 79

∘40

9984000998400998400E 80

∘09984000998400998400E 80

∘20

9984000998400998400E

79∘20

9984000998400998400E 79

∘40

9984000998400998400E 80

∘09984000998400998400E 80

∘20

9984000998400998400E 79

∘20

9984000998400998400E 79

∘40

9984000998400998400E 80

∘09984000998400998400E 80

∘20

9984000998400998400E

79∘20

9984000998400998400E 79

∘40

9984000998400998400E 80

∘09984000998400998400E 80

∘20

9984000998400998400E

12∘209984000998400998400

N12∘409984000998400998400

N13∘09984000998400998400

N13∘209984000998400998400

N12∘209984000998400998400

N12∘409984000998400998400

N13∘09984000998400998400

N13∘209984000998400998400

N

12∘209984000998400998400

N12∘409984000998400998400

N13∘09984000998400998400

N13∘209984000998400998400

N12∘209984000998400998400

N12∘409984000998400998400

N13∘09984000998400998400

N13∘209984000998400998400

N

1971ndash2000 2010ndash2040

2041ndash2070 2071ndash2098

0 5 10 20 30 40

(km)0 5 10 20 30 40

(km)

137ndash144

144ndash148

148ndash152

152ndash157

157ndash164

minus049ndashminus037

minus037ndashminus025

minus025ndashminus013

minus013ndashminus002

minus002ndash011

minus079ndashminus062

minus062ndashminus046

minus046ndashminus032

minus032ndashminus017

minus017ndashminus0009

IDM (mm∘C)

IDM (mm∘C) IDM (mm∘C)

IDM (mm∘C)

minus085ndashminus065

minus065ndashminus047

minus047ndashminus031

minus031ndashminus019

minus019ndashminus002

Figure 11 Projected changes in aridity in baseline period (1971ndash2000) near-century (2010ndash2040)mid-century (2040ndash2070) and end-century(2070ndash2100)

10 The Scientific World Journal

northwestern to southeastern parts of the study area towardsthe end of the 21st century as there was a decline in the DeMartonneAridity index valuesThe index values for the base-line period ranged from 137 to 164mm∘C characterizingthis area under semiarid climate Similar studies using higherresolution projection data would provide a clearer picture atsubdistrict level Microlevel studies are the need of the houras there exists spatial variability in climatic conditions and todesign local level planning It is very indispensable for Indiato generate observed data at microlevel and make it availableto the scientific research community to validate these kinds ofstudies This would worsen the already existing acute waterscarcity issues of this area in general and may aggravate thedrying of rivers lakes and farm ponds and these areas maybecome not suitable for irrigated agriculture practices in thefuture It is a crucial call that these scientific inputs need to beincorporated while framing local policies

Conflict of Interests

The authors declare no conflict of interests regarding thepublication of this paper

Acknowledgment

The first author gratefully acknowledges the Anna CentenaryResearch Fellowship under the Department of Civil Engi-neering Anna University for providing the financial supportfor this research work

References

[1] J Evans and R Geerken ldquoDiscrimination between climateand human-induced dryland degradationrdquo Journal of AridEnvironments vol 57 no 4 pp 535ndash554 2004

[2] United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification(UNCCD) 2012 httpwwwunccdintActionProgrammesindia-eng2001pdf

[3] Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) ldquoManag-ing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climatechange adaptationrdquo inA Special Report ofWorking Groups I andII of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change C B FieldV Barros T F Stocker et al Eds p 582 Cambridge UniversityPress Cambridge UK 2012

[4] S M Vicente-Serrano J M Cuadrat-Prats and A RomoldquoAridity influence on vegetation patterns in the middle EbroValley (Spain) evaluation by means of AVHRR images andclimate interpolation techniquesrdquo Journal of Arid Environmentsvol 66 no 2 pp 353ndash375 2006

[5] A Arora R K Sairam and G C Srivastava ldquoOxidative stressand antioxidative system in plantsrdquo Current Science vol 82 no10 pp 1227ndash1238 2002

[6] Millennium Assessment ReportmdashDry Land Systems Chapter22 pp 625 October 2014 httpwwwmillenniumassessmentorgdocumentsdocument291aspxpdf

[7] Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) ldquoSum-mary forpolicymakersrdquo in Climate Change 2013 The PhysicalScience Basis Contribution of Working Group I to the FifthAssessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange T F Stocker D Qin G-K Plattner et al Eds

p 1535 Cambridge University Press Cambridge UK 2013httpwwwipccchreportar5wg1Sealevelrisescenario

[8] B Shifteh Somersquoe A Ezani and H Tabari ldquoSpatiotemporaltrends of aridity index in arid and semi-arid regions of IranrdquoTheoretical and Applied Climatology vol 111 no 1-2 pp 149ndash160 2013

[9] S Golian B Saghafian S Sheshangosht and H GhalkhanildquoComparison of classification and clustering methods in spatialrainfall pattern recognition at Northern Iranrdquo Theoretical andApplied Climatology vol 102 no 3 pp 319ndash329 2010

[10] M R Kousari M R Ekhtesasi M Tazeh M A S Naeini andMAA Zarch ldquoAn investigation of the Iranian climatic changesby considering the precipitation temperature and relativehumidity parametersrdquoTheoretical and Applied Climatology vol103 no 3-4 pp 321ndash335 2011

[11] MTurkes andGAltan ldquoAn ecological biogeography analysis ofthe impacts of climatic variations and forest fires on the naturalenvironment nature protection areas and biota in the Mugladistrictrdquo Ege Cografya Dergisi vol 22 pp 57ndash76 2013

[12] United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change(UNFCCC) Climate Change Impact Vulnerabilities and Adap-tation in Developing Countries United Nations FrameworkConvention on Climate Change New York NY USA 2007

[13] D B Lobell K G Cassman and C B Field ldquoCrop yield gapstheir importance magnitudes and causesrdquo Annual Review ofEnvironment and Resources vol 34 pp 179ndash204 2009

[14] D B Lobell W Schlenker and J Costa-Roberts ldquoClimatetrends and global crop production since 1980rdquo Science vol 333no 6042 pp 616ndash620 2011

[15] United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification(UNCCD) United Nations Convention to Combat Desertifica-tion in Countries Experiencing Serious Drought andor Deser-tification Particularly in Africa United Nations Convention toCombat Desertification (UNCCD) 1994 httpwwwunccdint

[16] United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification(UNCCD) Report 2012 httpwwwunccdintActionPro-grammesindia-eng2001pdf

[17] S U Islam N Rehman and M M Sheikh ldquoFuture change inthe frequency of warm and cold spells over Pakistan simulatedby the PRECIS regional climate modelrdquo Climatic Change vol94 no 1-2 pp 35ndash45 2009

[18] S A Rao H S Chaudhari S Pokhrel and B N GoswamildquoUnusual central Indian drought of summer monsoon 2008role of southern tropical Indian Ocean warmingrdquo Journal ofClimate vol 23 no 19 pp 5163ndash5174 2010

[19] R K Chaturvedi J Joshi M Jayaraman G Bala and N HRavindranath ldquoMulti model climate change projections forIndia under representative concentration pathwaysrdquo CurrentScience vol 103 no 7 pp 1ndash12 2012

[20] K RupaKumar and R G Ashrit ldquoRegional aspects of global cli-mate change simulations validation and assessment of climateresponse over Indian monsoon region to transient increase ofgreenhouse gases and sulfate aerosolsrdquo Mausam vol 52 no 1pp 229ndash244 2001

[21] V Geethalakshmi A Lakshmanan D Rajalakshmi et alldquoClimate change impact assessment and adaptation strategiesto sustain rice production in Cauvery basin of Tamil NadurdquoCurrent Science vol 101 no 3 pp 342ndash347 2011

[22] G Jung and H Kunstmann ldquoHigh-resolution regional climatemodeling for the Volta region of West Africardquo Journal of

The Scientific World Journal 11

Geophysical Research Atmospheres vol 112 no 23 Article IDD23108 2007

[23] UNCCD United Nations Convention to Combat Desertifica-tion in Countries Experiencing Serious Drought andor Deser-tification Particularly in Africa 1994 httpwwwunccdintenPagesdefaultaspx

[24] J Fuhrer ldquoAgroecosystem responses to combinations of ele-vated CO

2

ozone and global climate changerdquo AgricultureEcosystems and Environment vol 97 no 1ndash3 pp 1ndash20 2003

[25] R Pravalie ldquoClimate issues on aridity trends of southernOltenia in the last five decadesrdquo Geographia Technica vol 1 pp70ndash79 2013

[26] C Paltineanu N Tanasescu E Chitu and I F MihailesculdquoRelationships between the De Martonne aridity index andwater requirements of some representative crops a case studyfrom Romaniardquo International Agrophysics vol 21 no 1 pp 81ndash93 2007

[27] A-E Croitoru A Piticar C S Dragota and D C BuradaldquoRecent changes in reference evapotranspiration in RomaniardquoGlobal and Planetary Change vol 111 pp 127ndash132 2013

[28] I Hrnjak T Lukic M B Gavrilov S B Markovic MUnkasevic and I Tosic ldquoAridity in Vojvodina SerbiardquoTheoret-ical and Applied Climatology vol 115 no 1-2 pp 323ndash332 2014

Submit your manuscripts athttpwwwhindawicom

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

ClimatologyJournal of

EcologyInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

EarthquakesJournal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom

Applied ampEnvironmentalSoil Science

Volume 2014

Mining

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporation httpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

International Journal of

Geophysics

OceanographyInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Journal of Computational Environmental SciencesHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Journal ofPetroleum Engineering

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

GeochemistryHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Journal of

Atmospheric SciencesInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

OceanographyHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Advances in

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

MineralogyInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

MeteorologyAdvances in

The Scientific World JournalHindawi Publishing Corporation httpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Paleontology JournalHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

ScientificaHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Geological ResearchJournal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Geology Advances in

The Scientific World Journal 5

0100200300400500600

Rain

fall

(mm

)

JanFeb MarAprMay Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecRain_BL

Rain_BL

Rain_MC

Rain_MCRain_EC

Rain_NC

nFeb MarAprMay Jun J l

Figure 6 Monthly and annual variations in the projected rainfall in the baseline near-century mid-century and end-century

0

10

20

30

40

Winter Summer Monsoon AnnualAfter monsoon

NC

Chan

ge (

)

MCEC

minus10

minus20

minus30

minus40

Figure 7 Seasonal variations in the projected rainfall in thebaseline near-century mid-century and end-century

The De Martonne Aridity Index was calculated by pro-cessing and analyzing the RegCM simulated air temperatureand precipitation data of the study using 14 grid points forvarious time slices (Figure 1) Figure 11 depicts the projectedmean annual aridity index for 30-year periods for near-mid- and end-century along with the baseline period (1970ndash2000) An apparent drying trend was observed towards theend of the 21st century as there was a decline in the indexvalues The original mean index values ranged from 137 to164mm∘C characterizing this area already under semiariddry climate As the index values ranged between 13 and14mm∘C the northwestern parts of the study covering partsof Tiruttani Tiruvalankadu RKPet and Pallipattu areas arealready experiencing dry climate But projections showedthat southeastern coastal stretchmay experiencemore dryingtrends under the changed climatic conditions

The spatial distribution of theDeMartonneAridity Indexrepresented in Figure 11 denotes that semiarid climate isprevailing in the study area In particular Latur Tirukalukun-dram and Chithamur administrative blocks may likely facemore dryness in future as the projected aridity values tend todecline indicatingmore drying trends over these areas underthe RCP 45 emission scenario There was a clear variation

in dryness noted from the coastal stretch to interior partsThe values of the index seemed to increase gradually fromthe western part of the study area to east coastal regionsThis is in line with the spatial distribution of precipitationand temperature as this index takes into account both theseprime climate variables For this reason the application of DeMartonne Index led to amore precise characterization of eachgrid point taken for the entire analysis

The scale of climate change is of great concern and theobserved trends and anticipated consequences of accelerateddry spells hot days and so forth portend a series of threatsin the future for the dependent communities More frequenthot days hot nights and heat waves have also been noticedin many parts of India [18ndash21] The latest advancements inglobal and regional climate simulation models helped us tobetter understand and project future climate changes basedon different emission scenarios and trajectories [23]

Meteorological parameters were often used to createspecific climate indices to assess the temporal trend of ariditysuch asDeMartonneAridity IndexUNEPAridity Index andWaterDeficit Index which are among themost representativeof the analyzed phenomenon Many researchers around theworld have analyzed the annual and seasonal precipitationseries and carried out annual aridity indices Their findingsreveal that the sites which are currently at the limit withrespect to available water resources in semiarid regions arelikely to be most sensitive to climate change [23ndash26] Pravalie[25] attempted to quantify the trend of climate aridification ofsouthern Oltenia in the last five decades (from 1961 to 2009)using temperature precipitations and potential evapotran-spiration He concluded that the aridity trend is pronouncedafter 1980s among the five decades analyzed Growing aridityconditions are caused primarily by the lowering of the averageannual rainfall the rising of mean annual temperatures andthe increasing of potential evapotranspiration as a result ofthe annual thermal regime change after 1980

DeMartonnersquos Index (Iar-DM)was applied to understandaridity status and to determine its relationship with irrigationwater requirements of representative crops of Romania byPaltineanu et al [26] The results revealed high variabilitywith the lowest values (lt20mm∘Cminus1) for the driest periodsin the southeastern areas of Romania Irrigation is usuallyapplied in the regions with Iar-DM values of 15ndash35mm∘Cminus1Croitoru et al [27 28] have also employed aridity indices De

6 The Scientific World Journal

N

W E

S79∘20

9984000998400998400E 79

∘40

9984000998400998400E 80

∘09984000998400998400E 80

∘20

9984000998400998400E

79∘20

9984000998400998400E 79

∘40

9984000998400998400E 80

∘09984000998400998400E 80

∘20

9984000998400998400E 79

∘20

9984000998400998400E 79

∘40

9984000998400998400E 80

∘09984000998400998400E 80

∘20

9984000998400998400E

79∘20

9984000998400998400E 79

∘40

9984000998400998400E 80

∘09984000998400998400E 80

∘20

9984000998400998400E

12∘209984000998400998400

N12∘409984000998400998400

N13∘09984000998400998400

N13∘209984000998400998400

N12∘209984000998400998400

N12∘409984000998400998400

N13∘09984000998400998400

N13∘209984000998400998400

N

12∘209984000998400998400

N12∘409984000998400998400

N13∘09984000998400998400

N13∘209984000998400998400

N12∘209984000998400998400

N12∘409984000998400998400

N13∘09984000998400998400

N13∘209984000998400998400

N

1971ndash2000 2010ndash2040

2041ndash2070 2071ndash2098

0 5 10 20 30 40

(km)

3000

ndash3050

3050

ndash3100

3100

ndash3150

3150

ndash3200

3200

ndash3250

3250

ndash3300

3300

ndash3350

3350

ndash3400

3400

ndash3450

3450

ndash3500

3500

ndash3550

3550

ndash3600

0 5 10 20 30 40

(km)

3000

ndash3050

3050

ndash3100

3100

ndash3150

3150

ndash3200

3200

ndash3250

3250

ndash3300

3300

ndash3350

3350

ndash3400

3400

ndash3450

3450

ndash3500

3500

ndash3550

3550

ndash3600

Tmax (∘C) Tmax (∘C)

Figure 8 Spatial distribution of projected MMaxT in the baseline near-century mid-century and end-century

The Scientific World Journal 7

1971ndash2000 2010ndash2040

2041ndash2070 2071ndash2098

N

W E

S79

∘20

9984000998400998400E 79

∘40

9984000998400998400E 80

∘09984000998400998400E 80

∘20

9984000998400998400E

79∘20

9984000998400998400E 79

∘40

9984000998400998400E 80

∘09984000998400998400E 80

∘20

9984000998400998400E 79

∘20

9984000998400998400E 79

∘40

9984000998400998400E 80

∘09984000998400998400E 80

∘20

9984000998400998400E

79∘20

9984000998400998400E 79

∘40

9984000998400998400E 80

∘09984000998400998400E 80

∘20

9984000998400998400E

12∘209984000998400998400

N12∘409984000998400998400

N13∘09984000998400998400

N13∘209984000998400998400

N12∘209984000998400998400

N12∘409984000998400998400

N13∘09984000998400998400

N13∘209984000998400998400

N

12∘209984000998400998400

N12∘409984000998400998400

N13∘09984000998400998400

N13∘209984000998400998400

N12∘209984000998400998400

N12∘409984000998400998400

N13∘09984000998400998400

N13∘209984000998400998400

N

0 5 10 20 30 40

(km)

180

ndash185

185

ndash190

190

ndash195

195

ndash200

200

ndash205

205

ndash210

210

ndash215

215

ndash220

220

ndash225

225

ndash230

230

ndash235

235

ndash240

0 5 10 20 30 40

(km)

180

ndash185

185

ndash190

190

ndash195

195

ndash200

200

ndash205

205

ndash210

210

ndash215

215

ndash220

220

ndash225

225

ndash230

230

ndash235

235

ndash240

Tmin (∘C) Tmin (∘C)

Figure 9 Spatial distribution of projected MMinT in the baseline near-century mid-century and end-century

Martonne aridity Index (DMI) and the Pinna CombinativeIndex (IP) in order to identify critical areas in the mostimportant agricultural regions of Romania that are prone toaridity They used data recorded in 30 locations in the extra-Carpathian areas of Romania from 1961 to 2007Themonthly

seasonal annual winter wheat and maize-growing seasondatasets of DMI and annual values of IP were also calculatedThey also identified the trends using the Mann-Kendall testand Senrsquos slope while the ordinary Kriging technique wasemployed for interpolation Their main findings were that

8 The Scientific World Journal

N

W E

S2010ndash2040 2041ndash2070

2071ndash2098

79∘20

9984000998400998400E 79

∘40

9984000998400998400E 80

∘09984000998400998400E 80

∘20

9984000998400998400E

79∘20

9984000998400998400E 79

∘40

9984000998400998400E 80

∘09984000998400998400E 80

∘20

9984000998400998400E 80

∘40

9984000998400998400E

79∘20

9984000998400998400E 79

∘40

9984000998400998400E 80

∘09984000998400998400E 80

∘20

9984000998400998400E

12∘209984000998400998400

N12∘409984000998400998400

N13∘09984000998400998400

N13∘209984000998400998400

N

12∘209984000998400998400

N12∘409984000998400998400

N13∘09984000998400998400

N13∘209984000998400998400

N

12∘409984000998400998400

N13∘09984000998400998400

N13∘209984000998400998400

N

12∘409984000998400998400

N13∘09984000998400998400

N13∘209984000998400998400

N

0 5 10 20 30 40

(km)

Change in rainfall ()

Belo

wminus6

2ndash6

6ndash10

10

ndash14

14

ndash18

18

ndash22

26

ndash30

22

ndash26

30

ndash34

34

ndash38

38

ndash42

minus6

ndashminus2

minus2

ndash2

Figure 10 Spatial distribution of projected rainfall in the baseline near-century mid-century and end-century

the most vulnerable areas to semiaridity are the southeasternregions and they reported that the usage of DMI is moreappropriate for this kind of assessments compared to IPindex It can be concluded that some terrestrial ecosystemsare highly prone to rise in aridity and resultant dryness inresponse to the warming climatic indications

4 Conclusions

This research has shown that warming is pronounced in thestudy region and indicates a notable day time and night timewarming of 23∘C and 25∘C in future under RCP 45 Anapparent drying trend was observed with a gradient from

The Scientific World Journal 9

N

W E

S

79∘20

9984000998400998400E 79

∘40

9984000998400998400E 80

∘09984000998400998400E 80

∘20

9984000998400998400E

79∘20

9984000998400998400E 79

∘40

9984000998400998400E 80

∘09984000998400998400E 80

∘20

9984000998400998400E 79

∘20

9984000998400998400E 79

∘40

9984000998400998400E 80

∘09984000998400998400E 80

∘20

9984000998400998400E

79∘20

9984000998400998400E 79

∘40

9984000998400998400E 80

∘09984000998400998400E 80

∘20

9984000998400998400E

12∘209984000998400998400

N12∘409984000998400998400

N13∘09984000998400998400

N13∘209984000998400998400

N12∘209984000998400998400

N12∘409984000998400998400

N13∘09984000998400998400

N13∘209984000998400998400

N

12∘209984000998400998400

N12∘409984000998400998400

N13∘09984000998400998400

N13∘209984000998400998400

N12∘209984000998400998400

N12∘409984000998400998400

N13∘09984000998400998400

N13∘209984000998400998400

N

1971ndash2000 2010ndash2040

2041ndash2070 2071ndash2098

0 5 10 20 30 40

(km)0 5 10 20 30 40

(km)

137ndash144

144ndash148

148ndash152

152ndash157

157ndash164

minus049ndashminus037

minus037ndashminus025

minus025ndashminus013

minus013ndashminus002

minus002ndash011

minus079ndashminus062

minus062ndashminus046

minus046ndashminus032

minus032ndashminus017

minus017ndashminus0009

IDM (mm∘C)

IDM (mm∘C) IDM (mm∘C)

IDM (mm∘C)

minus085ndashminus065

minus065ndashminus047

minus047ndashminus031

minus031ndashminus019

minus019ndashminus002

Figure 11 Projected changes in aridity in baseline period (1971ndash2000) near-century (2010ndash2040)mid-century (2040ndash2070) and end-century(2070ndash2100)

10 The Scientific World Journal

northwestern to southeastern parts of the study area towardsthe end of the 21st century as there was a decline in the DeMartonneAridity index valuesThe index values for the base-line period ranged from 137 to 164mm∘C characterizingthis area under semiarid climate Similar studies using higherresolution projection data would provide a clearer picture atsubdistrict level Microlevel studies are the need of the houras there exists spatial variability in climatic conditions and todesign local level planning It is very indispensable for Indiato generate observed data at microlevel and make it availableto the scientific research community to validate these kinds ofstudies This would worsen the already existing acute waterscarcity issues of this area in general and may aggravate thedrying of rivers lakes and farm ponds and these areas maybecome not suitable for irrigated agriculture practices in thefuture It is a crucial call that these scientific inputs need to beincorporated while framing local policies

Conflict of Interests

The authors declare no conflict of interests regarding thepublication of this paper

Acknowledgment

The first author gratefully acknowledges the Anna CentenaryResearch Fellowship under the Department of Civil Engi-neering Anna University for providing the financial supportfor this research work

References

[1] J Evans and R Geerken ldquoDiscrimination between climateand human-induced dryland degradationrdquo Journal of AridEnvironments vol 57 no 4 pp 535ndash554 2004

[2] United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification(UNCCD) 2012 httpwwwunccdintActionProgrammesindia-eng2001pdf

[3] Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) ldquoManag-ing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climatechange adaptationrdquo inA Special Report ofWorking Groups I andII of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change C B FieldV Barros T F Stocker et al Eds p 582 Cambridge UniversityPress Cambridge UK 2012

[4] S M Vicente-Serrano J M Cuadrat-Prats and A RomoldquoAridity influence on vegetation patterns in the middle EbroValley (Spain) evaluation by means of AVHRR images andclimate interpolation techniquesrdquo Journal of Arid Environmentsvol 66 no 2 pp 353ndash375 2006

[5] A Arora R K Sairam and G C Srivastava ldquoOxidative stressand antioxidative system in plantsrdquo Current Science vol 82 no10 pp 1227ndash1238 2002

[6] Millennium Assessment ReportmdashDry Land Systems Chapter22 pp 625 October 2014 httpwwwmillenniumassessmentorgdocumentsdocument291aspxpdf

[7] Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) ldquoSum-mary forpolicymakersrdquo in Climate Change 2013 The PhysicalScience Basis Contribution of Working Group I to the FifthAssessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange T F Stocker D Qin G-K Plattner et al Eds

p 1535 Cambridge University Press Cambridge UK 2013httpwwwipccchreportar5wg1Sealevelrisescenario

[8] B Shifteh Somersquoe A Ezani and H Tabari ldquoSpatiotemporaltrends of aridity index in arid and semi-arid regions of IranrdquoTheoretical and Applied Climatology vol 111 no 1-2 pp 149ndash160 2013

[9] S Golian B Saghafian S Sheshangosht and H GhalkhanildquoComparison of classification and clustering methods in spatialrainfall pattern recognition at Northern Iranrdquo Theoretical andApplied Climatology vol 102 no 3 pp 319ndash329 2010

[10] M R Kousari M R Ekhtesasi M Tazeh M A S Naeini andMAA Zarch ldquoAn investigation of the Iranian climatic changesby considering the precipitation temperature and relativehumidity parametersrdquoTheoretical and Applied Climatology vol103 no 3-4 pp 321ndash335 2011

[11] MTurkes andGAltan ldquoAn ecological biogeography analysis ofthe impacts of climatic variations and forest fires on the naturalenvironment nature protection areas and biota in the Mugladistrictrdquo Ege Cografya Dergisi vol 22 pp 57ndash76 2013

[12] United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change(UNFCCC) Climate Change Impact Vulnerabilities and Adap-tation in Developing Countries United Nations FrameworkConvention on Climate Change New York NY USA 2007

[13] D B Lobell K G Cassman and C B Field ldquoCrop yield gapstheir importance magnitudes and causesrdquo Annual Review ofEnvironment and Resources vol 34 pp 179ndash204 2009

[14] D B Lobell W Schlenker and J Costa-Roberts ldquoClimatetrends and global crop production since 1980rdquo Science vol 333no 6042 pp 616ndash620 2011

[15] United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification(UNCCD) United Nations Convention to Combat Desertifica-tion in Countries Experiencing Serious Drought andor Deser-tification Particularly in Africa United Nations Convention toCombat Desertification (UNCCD) 1994 httpwwwunccdint

[16] United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification(UNCCD) Report 2012 httpwwwunccdintActionPro-grammesindia-eng2001pdf

[17] S U Islam N Rehman and M M Sheikh ldquoFuture change inthe frequency of warm and cold spells over Pakistan simulatedby the PRECIS regional climate modelrdquo Climatic Change vol94 no 1-2 pp 35ndash45 2009

[18] S A Rao H S Chaudhari S Pokhrel and B N GoswamildquoUnusual central Indian drought of summer monsoon 2008role of southern tropical Indian Ocean warmingrdquo Journal ofClimate vol 23 no 19 pp 5163ndash5174 2010

[19] R K Chaturvedi J Joshi M Jayaraman G Bala and N HRavindranath ldquoMulti model climate change projections forIndia under representative concentration pathwaysrdquo CurrentScience vol 103 no 7 pp 1ndash12 2012

[20] K RupaKumar and R G Ashrit ldquoRegional aspects of global cli-mate change simulations validation and assessment of climateresponse over Indian monsoon region to transient increase ofgreenhouse gases and sulfate aerosolsrdquo Mausam vol 52 no 1pp 229ndash244 2001

[21] V Geethalakshmi A Lakshmanan D Rajalakshmi et alldquoClimate change impact assessment and adaptation strategiesto sustain rice production in Cauvery basin of Tamil NadurdquoCurrent Science vol 101 no 3 pp 342ndash347 2011

[22] G Jung and H Kunstmann ldquoHigh-resolution regional climatemodeling for the Volta region of West Africardquo Journal of

The Scientific World Journal 11

Geophysical Research Atmospheres vol 112 no 23 Article IDD23108 2007

[23] UNCCD United Nations Convention to Combat Desertifica-tion in Countries Experiencing Serious Drought andor Deser-tification Particularly in Africa 1994 httpwwwunccdintenPagesdefaultaspx

[24] J Fuhrer ldquoAgroecosystem responses to combinations of ele-vated CO

2

ozone and global climate changerdquo AgricultureEcosystems and Environment vol 97 no 1ndash3 pp 1ndash20 2003

[25] R Pravalie ldquoClimate issues on aridity trends of southernOltenia in the last five decadesrdquo Geographia Technica vol 1 pp70ndash79 2013

[26] C Paltineanu N Tanasescu E Chitu and I F MihailesculdquoRelationships between the De Martonne aridity index andwater requirements of some representative crops a case studyfrom Romaniardquo International Agrophysics vol 21 no 1 pp 81ndash93 2007

[27] A-E Croitoru A Piticar C S Dragota and D C BuradaldquoRecent changes in reference evapotranspiration in RomaniardquoGlobal and Planetary Change vol 111 pp 127ndash132 2013

[28] I Hrnjak T Lukic M B Gavrilov S B Markovic MUnkasevic and I Tosic ldquoAridity in Vojvodina SerbiardquoTheoret-ical and Applied Climatology vol 115 no 1-2 pp 323ndash332 2014

Submit your manuscripts athttpwwwhindawicom

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

ClimatologyJournal of

EcologyInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

EarthquakesJournal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom

Applied ampEnvironmentalSoil Science

Volume 2014

Mining

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporation httpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

International Journal of

Geophysics

OceanographyInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Journal of Computational Environmental SciencesHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Journal ofPetroleum Engineering

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

GeochemistryHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Journal of

Atmospheric SciencesInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

OceanographyHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Advances in

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

MineralogyInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

MeteorologyAdvances in

The Scientific World JournalHindawi Publishing Corporation httpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Paleontology JournalHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

ScientificaHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Geological ResearchJournal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Geology Advances in

6 The Scientific World Journal

N

W E

S79∘20

9984000998400998400E 79

∘40

9984000998400998400E 80

∘09984000998400998400E 80

∘20

9984000998400998400E

79∘20

9984000998400998400E 79

∘40

9984000998400998400E 80

∘09984000998400998400E 80

∘20

9984000998400998400E 79

∘20

9984000998400998400E 79

∘40

9984000998400998400E 80

∘09984000998400998400E 80

∘20

9984000998400998400E

79∘20

9984000998400998400E 79

∘40

9984000998400998400E 80

∘09984000998400998400E 80

∘20

9984000998400998400E

12∘209984000998400998400

N12∘409984000998400998400

N13∘09984000998400998400

N13∘209984000998400998400

N12∘209984000998400998400

N12∘409984000998400998400

N13∘09984000998400998400

N13∘209984000998400998400

N

12∘209984000998400998400

N12∘409984000998400998400

N13∘09984000998400998400

N13∘209984000998400998400

N12∘209984000998400998400

N12∘409984000998400998400

N13∘09984000998400998400

N13∘209984000998400998400

N

1971ndash2000 2010ndash2040

2041ndash2070 2071ndash2098

0 5 10 20 30 40

(km)

3000

ndash3050

3050

ndash3100

3100

ndash3150

3150

ndash3200

3200

ndash3250

3250

ndash3300

3300

ndash3350

3350

ndash3400

3400

ndash3450

3450

ndash3500

3500

ndash3550

3550

ndash3600

0 5 10 20 30 40

(km)

3000

ndash3050

3050

ndash3100

3100

ndash3150

3150

ndash3200

3200

ndash3250

3250

ndash3300

3300

ndash3350

3350

ndash3400

3400

ndash3450

3450

ndash3500

3500

ndash3550

3550

ndash3600

Tmax (∘C) Tmax (∘C)

Figure 8 Spatial distribution of projected MMaxT in the baseline near-century mid-century and end-century

The Scientific World Journal 7

1971ndash2000 2010ndash2040

2041ndash2070 2071ndash2098

N

W E

S79

∘20

9984000998400998400E 79

∘40

9984000998400998400E 80

∘09984000998400998400E 80

∘20

9984000998400998400E

79∘20

9984000998400998400E 79

∘40

9984000998400998400E 80

∘09984000998400998400E 80

∘20

9984000998400998400E 79

∘20

9984000998400998400E 79

∘40

9984000998400998400E 80

∘09984000998400998400E 80

∘20

9984000998400998400E

79∘20

9984000998400998400E 79

∘40

9984000998400998400E 80

∘09984000998400998400E 80

∘20

9984000998400998400E

12∘209984000998400998400

N12∘409984000998400998400

N13∘09984000998400998400

N13∘209984000998400998400

N12∘209984000998400998400

N12∘409984000998400998400

N13∘09984000998400998400

N13∘209984000998400998400

N

12∘209984000998400998400

N12∘409984000998400998400

N13∘09984000998400998400

N13∘209984000998400998400

N12∘209984000998400998400

N12∘409984000998400998400

N13∘09984000998400998400

N13∘209984000998400998400

N

0 5 10 20 30 40

(km)

180

ndash185

185

ndash190

190

ndash195

195

ndash200

200

ndash205

205

ndash210

210

ndash215

215

ndash220

220

ndash225

225

ndash230

230

ndash235

235

ndash240

0 5 10 20 30 40

(km)

180

ndash185

185

ndash190

190

ndash195

195

ndash200

200

ndash205

205

ndash210

210

ndash215

215

ndash220

220

ndash225

225

ndash230

230

ndash235

235

ndash240

Tmin (∘C) Tmin (∘C)

Figure 9 Spatial distribution of projected MMinT in the baseline near-century mid-century and end-century

Martonne aridity Index (DMI) and the Pinna CombinativeIndex (IP) in order to identify critical areas in the mostimportant agricultural regions of Romania that are prone toaridity They used data recorded in 30 locations in the extra-Carpathian areas of Romania from 1961 to 2007Themonthly

seasonal annual winter wheat and maize-growing seasondatasets of DMI and annual values of IP were also calculatedThey also identified the trends using the Mann-Kendall testand Senrsquos slope while the ordinary Kriging technique wasemployed for interpolation Their main findings were that

8 The Scientific World Journal

N

W E

S2010ndash2040 2041ndash2070

2071ndash2098

79∘20

9984000998400998400E 79

∘40

9984000998400998400E 80

∘09984000998400998400E 80

∘20

9984000998400998400E

79∘20

9984000998400998400E 79

∘40

9984000998400998400E 80

∘09984000998400998400E 80

∘20

9984000998400998400E 80

∘40

9984000998400998400E

79∘20

9984000998400998400E 79

∘40

9984000998400998400E 80

∘09984000998400998400E 80

∘20

9984000998400998400E

12∘209984000998400998400

N12∘409984000998400998400

N13∘09984000998400998400

N13∘209984000998400998400

N

12∘209984000998400998400

N12∘409984000998400998400

N13∘09984000998400998400

N13∘209984000998400998400

N

12∘409984000998400998400

N13∘09984000998400998400

N13∘209984000998400998400

N

12∘409984000998400998400

N13∘09984000998400998400

N13∘209984000998400998400

N

0 5 10 20 30 40

(km)

Change in rainfall ()

Belo

wminus6

2ndash6

6ndash10

10

ndash14

14

ndash18

18

ndash22

26

ndash30

22

ndash26

30

ndash34

34

ndash38

38

ndash42

minus6

ndashminus2

minus2

ndash2

Figure 10 Spatial distribution of projected rainfall in the baseline near-century mid-century and end-century

the most vulnerable areas to semiaridity are the southeasternregions and they reported that the usage of DMI is moreappropriate for this kind of assessments compared to IPindex It can be concluded that some terrestrial ecosystemsare highly prone to rise in aridity and resultant dryness inresponse to the warming climatic indications

4 Conclusions

This research has shown that warming is pronounced in thestudy region and indicates a notable day time and night timewarming of 23∘C and 25∘C in future under RCP 45 Anapparent drying trend was observed with a gradient from

The Scientific World Journal 9

N

W E

S

79∘20

9984000998400998400E 79

∘40

9984000998400998400E 80

∘09984000998400998400E 80

∘20

9984000998400998400E

79∘20

9984000998400998400E 79

∘40

9984000998400998400E 80

∘09984000998400998400E 80

∘20

9984000998400998400E 79

∘20

9984000998400998400E 79

∘40

9984000998400998400E 80

∘09984000998400998400E 80

∘20

9984000998400998400E

79∘20

9984000998400998400E 79

∘40

9984000998400998400E 80

∘09984000998400998400E 80

∘20

9984000998400998400E

12∘209984000998400998400

N12∘409984000998400998400

N13∘09984000998400998400

N13∘209984000998400998400

N12∘209984000998400998400

N12∘409984000998400998400

N13∘09984000998400998400

N13∘209984000998400998400

N

12∘209984000998400998400

N12∘409984000998400998400

N13∘09984000998400998400

N13∘209984000998400998400

N12∘209984000998400998400

N12∘409984000998400998400

N13∘09984000998400998400

N13∘209984000998400998400

N

1971ndash2000 2010ndash2040

2041ndash2070 2071ndash2098

0 5 10 20 30 40

(km)0 5 10 20 30 40

(km)

137ndash144

144ndash148

148ndash152

152ndash157

157ndash164

minus049ndashminus037

minus037ndashminus025

minus025ndashminus013

minus013ndashminus002

minus002ndash011

minus079ndashminus062

minus062ndashminus046

minus046ndashminus032

minus032ndashminus017

minus017ndashminus0009

IDM (mm∘C)

IDM (mm∘C) IDM (mm∘C)

IDM (mm∘C)

minus085ndashminus065

minus065ndashminus047

minus047ndashminus031

minus031ndashminus019

minus019ndashminus002

Figure 11 Projected changes in aridity in baseline period (1971ndash2000) near-century (2010ndash2040)mid-century (2040ndash2070) and end-century(2070ndash2100)

10 The Scientific World Journal

northwestern to southeastern parts of the study area towardsthe end of the 21st century as there was a decline in the DeMartonneAridity index valuesThe index values for the base-line period ranged from 137 to 164mm∘C characterizingthis area under semiarid climate Similar studies using higherresolution projection data would provide a clearer picture atsubdistrict level Microlevel studies are the need of the houras there exists spatial variability in climatic conditions and todesign local level planning It is very indispensable for Indiato generate observed data at microlevel and make it availableto the scientific research community to validate these kinds ofstudies This would worsen the already existing acute waterscarcity issues of this area in general and may aggravate thedrying of rivers lakes and farm ponds and these areas maybecome not suitable for irrigated agriculture practices in thefuture It is a crucial call that these scientific inputs need to beincorporated while framing local policies

Conflict of Interests

The authors declare no conflict of interests regarding thepublication of this paper

Acknowledgment

The first author gratefully acknowledges the Anna CentenaryResearch Fellowship under the Department of Civil Engi-neering Anna University for providing the financial supportfor this research work

References

[1] J Evans and R Geerken ldquoDiscrimination between climateand human-induced dryland degradationrdquo Journal of AridEnvironments vol 57 no 4 pp 535ndash554 2004

[2] United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification(UNCCD) 2012 httpwwwunccdintActionProgrammesindia-eng2001pdf

[3] Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) ldquoManag-ing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climatechange adaptationrdquo inA Special Report ofWorking Groups I andII of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change C B FieldV Barros T F Stocker et al Eds p 582 Cambridge UniversityPress Cambridge UK 2012

[4] S M Vicente-Serrano J M Cuadrat-Prats and A RomoldquoAridity influence on vegetation patterns in the middle EbroValley (Spain) evaluation by means of AVHRR images andclimate interpolation techniquesrdquo Journal of Arid Environmentsvol 66 no 2 pp 353ndash375 2006

[5] A Arora R K Sairam and G C Srivastava ldquoOxidative stressand antioxidative system in plantsrdquo Current Science vol 82 no10 pp 1227ndash1238 2002

[6] Millennium Assessment ReportmdashDry Land Systems Chapter22 pp 625 October 2014 httpwwwmillenniumassessmentorgdocumentsdocument291aspxpdf

[7] Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) ldquoSum-mary forpolicymakersrdquo in Climate Change 2013 The PhysicalScience Basis Contribution of Working Group I to the FifthAssessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange T F Stocker D Qin G-K Plattner et al Eds

p 1535 Cambridge University Press Cambridge UK 2013httpwwwipccchreportar5wg1Sealevelrisescenario

[8] B Shifteh Somersquoe A Ezani and H Tabari ldquoSpatiotemporaltrends of aridity index in arid and semi-arid regions of IranrdquoTheoretical and Applied Climatology vol 111 no 1-2 pp 149ndash160 2013

[9] S Golian B Saghafian S Sheshangosht and H GhalkhanildquoComparison of classification and clustering methods in spatialrainfall pattern recognition at Northern Iranrdquo Theoretical andApplied Climatology vol 102 no 3 pp 319ndash329 2010

[10] M R Kousari M R Ekhtesasi M Tazeh M A S Naeini andMAA Zarch ldquoAn investigation of the Iranian climatic changesby considering the precipitation temperature and relativehumidity parametersrdquoTheoretical and Applied Climatology vol103 no 3-4 pp 321ndash335 2011

[11] MTurkes andGAltan ldquoAn ecological biogeography analysis ofthe impacts of climatic variations and forest fires on the naturalenvironment nature protection areas and biota in the Mugladistrictrdquo Ege Cografya Dergisi vol 22 pp 57ndash76 2013

[12] United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change(UNFCCC) Climate Change Impact Vulnerabilities and Adap-tation in Developing Countries United Nations FrameworkConvention on Climate Change New York NY USA 2007

[13] D B Lobell K G Cassman and C B Field ldquoCrop yield gapstheir importance magnitudes and causesrdquo Annual Review ofEnvironment and Resources vol 34 pp 179ndash204 2009

[14] D B Lobell W Schlenker and J Costa-Roberts ldquoClimatetrends and global crop production since 1980rdquo Science vol 333no 6042 pp 616ndash620 2011

[15] United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification(UNCCD) United Nations Convention to Combat Desertifica-tion in Countries Experiencing Serious Drought andor Deser-tification Particularly in Africa United Nations Convention toCombat Desertification (UNCCD) 1994 httpwwwunccdint

[16] United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification(UNCCD) Report 2012 httpwwwunccdintActionPro-grammesindia-eng2001pdf

[17] S U Islam N Rehman and M M Sheikh ldquoFuture change inthe frequency of warm and cold spells over Pakistan simulatedby the PRECIS regional climate modelrdquo Climatic Change vol94 no 1-2 pp 35ndash45 2009

[18] S A Rao H S Chaudhari S Pokhrel and B N GoswamildquoUnusual central Indian drought of summer monsoon 2008role of southern tropical Indian Ocean warmingrdquo Journal ofClimate vol 23 no 19 pp 5163ndash5174 2010

[19] R K Chaturvedi J Joshi M Jayaraman G Bala and N HRavindranath ldquoMulti model climate change projections forIndia under representative concentration pathwaysrdquo CurrentScience vol 103 no 7 pp 1ndash12 2012

[20] K RupaKumar and R G Ashrit ldquoRegional aspects of global cli-mate change simulations validation and assessment of climateresponse over Indian monsoon region to transient increase ofgreenhouse gases and sulfate aerosolsrdquo Mausam vol 52 no 1pp 229ndash244 2001

[21] V Geethalakshmi A Lakshmanan D Rajalakshmi et alldquoClimate change impact assessment and adaptation strategiesto sustain rice production in Cauvery basin of Tamil NadurdquoCurrent Science vol 101 no 3 pp 342ndash347 2011

[22] G Jung and H Kunstmann ldquoHigh-resolution regional climatemodeling for the Volta region of West Africardquo Journal of

The Scientific World Journal 11

Geophysical Research Atmospheres vol 112 no 23 Article IDD23108 2007

[23] UNCCD United Nations Convention to Combat Desertifica-tion in Countries Experiencing Serious Drought andor Deser-tification Particularly in Africa 1994 httpwwwunccdintenPagesdefaultaspx

[24] J Fuhrer ldquoAgroecosystem responses to combinations of ele-vated CO

2

ozone and global climate changerdquo AgricultureEcosystems and Environment vol 97 no 1ndash3 pp 1ndash20 2003

[25] R Pravalie ldquoClimate issues on aridity trends of southernOltenia in the last five decadesrdquo Geographia Technica vol 1 pp70ndash79 2013

[26] C Paltineanu N Tanasescu E Chitu and I F MihailesculdquoRelationships between the De Martonne aridity index andwater requirements of some representative crops a case studyfrom Romaniardquo International Agrophysics vol 21 no 1 pp 81ndash93 2007

[27] A-E Croitoru A Piticar C S Dragota and D C BuradaldquoRecent changes in reference evapotranspiration in RomaniardquoGlobal and Planetary Change vol 111 pp 127ndash132 2013

[28] I Hrnjak T Lukic M B Gavrilov S B Markovic MUnkasevic and I Tosic ldquoAridity in Vojvodina SerbiardquoTheoret-ical and Applied Climatology vol 115 no 1-2 pp 323ndash332 2014

Submit your manuscripts athttpwwwhindawicom

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

ClimatologyJournal of

EcologyInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

EarthquakesJournal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom

Applied ampEnvironmentalSoil Science

Volume 2014

Mining

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporation httpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

International Journal of

Geophysics

OceanographyInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Journal of Computational Environmental SciencesHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Journal ofPetroleum Engineering

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

GeochemistryHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Journal of

Atmospheric SciencesInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

OceanographyHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Advances in

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

MineralogyInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

MeteorologyAdvances in

The Scientific World JournalHindawi Publishing Corporation httpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Paleontology JournalHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

ScientificaHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Geological ResearchJournal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Geology Advances in

The Scientific World Journal 7

1971ndash2000 2010ndash2040

2041ndash2070 2071ndash2098

N

W E

S79

∘20

9984000998400998400E 79

∘40

9984000998400998400E 80

∘09984000998400998400E 80

∘20

9984000998400998400E

79∘20

9984000998400998400E 79

∘40

9984000998400998400E 80

∘09984000998400998400E 80

∘20

9984000998400998400E 79

∘20

9984000998400998400E 79

∘40

9984000998400998400E 80

∘09984000998400998400E 80

∘20

9984000998400998400E

79∘20

9984000998400998400E 79

∘40

9984000998400998400E 80

∘09984000998400998400E 80

∘20

9984000998400998400E

12∘209984000998400998400

N12∘409984000998400998400

N13∘09984000998400998400

N13∘209984000998400998400

N12∘209984000998400998400

N12∘409984000998400998400

N13∘09984000998400998400

N13∘209984000998400998400

N

12∘209984000998400998400

N12∘409984000998400998400

N13∘09984000998400998400

N13∘209984000998400998400

N12∘209984000998400998400

N12∘409984000998400998400

N13∘09984000998400998400

N13∘209984000998400998400

N

0 5 10 20 30 40

(km)

180

ndash185

185

ndash190

190

ndash195

195

ndash200

200

ndash205

205

ndash210

210

ndash215

215

ndash220

220

ndash225

225

ndash230

230

ndash235

235

ndash240

0 5 10 20 30 40

(km)

180

ndash185

185

ndash190

190

ndash195

195

ndash200

200

ndash205

205

ndash210

210

ndash215

215

ndash220

220

ndash225

225

ndash230

230

ndash235

235

ndash240

Tmin (∘C) Tmin (∘C)

Figure 9 Spatial distribution of projected MMinT in the baseline near-century mid-century and end-century

Martonne aridity Index (DMI) and the Pinna CombinativeIndex (IP) in order to identify critical areas in the mostimportant agricultural regions of Romania that are prone toaridity They used data recorded in 30 locations in the extra-Carpathian areas of Romania from 1961 to 2007Themonthly

seasonal annual winter wheat and maize-growing seasondatasets of DMI and annual values of IP were also calculatedThey also identified the trends using the Mann-Kendall testand Senrsquos slope while the ordinary Kriging technique wasemployed for interpolation Their main findings were that

8 The Scientific World Journal

N

W E

S2010ndash2040 2041ndash2070

2071ndash2098

79∘20

9984000998400998400E 79

∘40

9984000998400998400E 80

∘09984000998400998400E 80

∘20

9984000998400998400E

79∘20

9984000998400998400E 79

∘40

9984000998400998400E 80

∘09984000998400998400E 80

∘20

9984000998400998400E 80

∘40

9984000998400998400E

79∘20

9984000998400998400E 79

∘40

9984000998400998400E 80

∘09984000998400998400E 80

∘20

9984000998400998400E

12∘209984000998400998400

N12∘409984000998400998400

N13∘09984000998400998400

N13∘209984000998400998400

N

12∘209984000998400998400

N12∘409984000998400998400

N13∘09984000998400998400

N13∘209984000998400998400

N

12∘409984000998400998400

N13∘09984000998400998400

N13∘209984000998400998400

N

12∘409984000998400998400

N13∘09984000998400998400

N13∘209984000998400998400

N

0 5 10 20 30 40

(km)

Change in rainfall ()

Belo

wminus6

2ndash6

6ndash10

10

ndash14

14

ndash18

18

ndash22

26

ndash30

22

ndash26

30

ndash34

34

ndash38

38

ndash42

minus6

ndashminus2

minus2

ndash2

Figure 10 Spatial distribution of projected rainfall in the baseline near-century mid-century and end-century

the most vulnerable areas to semiaridity are the southeasternregions and they reported that the usage of DMI is moreappropriate for this kind of assessments compared to IPindex It can be concluded that some terrestrial ecosystemsare highly prone to rise in aridity and resultant dryness inresponse to the warming climatic indications

4 Conclusions

This research has shown that warming is pronounced in thestudy region and indicates a notable day time and night timewarming of 23∘C and 25∘C in future under RCP 45 Anapparent drying trend was observed with a gradient from

The Scientific World Journal 9

N

W E

S

79∘20

9984000998400998400E 79

∘40

9984000998400998400E 80

∘09984000998400998400E 80

∘20

9984000998400998400E

79∘20

9984000998400998400E 79

∘40

9984000998400998400E 80

∘09984000998400998400E 80

∘20

9984000998400998400E 79

∘20

9984000998400998400E 79

∘40

9984000998400998400E 80

∘09984000998400998400E 80

∘20

9984000998400998400E

79∘20

9984000998400998400E 79

∘40

9984000998400998400E 80

∘09984000998400998400E 80

∘20

9984000998400998400E

12∘209984000998400998400

N12∘409984000998400998400

N13∘09984000998400998400

N13∘209984000998400998400

N12∘209984000998400998400

N12∘409984000998400998400

N13∘09984000998400998400

N13∘209984000998400998400

N

12∘209984000998400998400

N12∘409984000998400998400

N13∘09984000998400998400

N13∘209984000998400998400

N12∘209984000998400998400

N12∘409984000998400998400

N13∘09984000998400998400

N13∘209984000998400998400

N

1971ndash2000 2010ndash2040

2041ndash2070 2071ndash2098

0 5 10 20 30 40

(km)0 5 10 20 30 40

(km)

137ndash144

144ndash148

148ndash152

152ndash157

157ndash164

minus049ndashminus037

minus037ndashminus025

minus025ndashminus013

minus013ndashminus002

minus002ndash011

minus079ndashminus062

minus062ndashminus046

minus046ndashminus032

minus032ndashminus017

minus017ndashminus0009

IDM (mm∘C)

IDM (mm∘C) IDM (mm∘C)

IDM (mm∘C)

minus085ndashminus065

minus065ndashminus047

minus047ndashminus031

minus031ndashminus019

minus019ndashminus002

Figure 11 Projected changes in aridity in baseline period (1971ndash2000) near-century (2010ndash2040)mid-century (2040ndash2070) and end-century(2070ndash2100)

10 The Scientific World Journal

northwestern to southeastern parts of the study area towardsthe end of the 21st century as there was a decline in the DeMartonneAridity index valuesThe index values for the base-line period ranged from 137 to 164mm∘C characterizingthis area under semiarid climate Similar studies using higherresolution projection data would provide a clearer picture atsubdistrict level Microlevel studies are the need of the houras there exists spatial variability in climatic conditions and todesign local level planning It is very indispensable for Indiato generate observed data at microlevel and make it availableto the scientific research community to validate these kinds ofstudies This would worsen the already existing acute waterscarcity issues of this area in general and may aggravate thedrying of rivers lakes and farm ponds and these areas maybecome not suitable for irrigated agriculture practices in thefuture It is a crucial call that these scientific inputs need to beincorporated while framing local policies

Conflict of Interests

The authors declare no conflict of interests regarding thepublication of this paper

Acknowledgment

The first author gratefully acknowledges the Anna CentenaryResearch Fellowship under the Department of Civil Engi-neering Anna University for providing the financial supportfor this research work

References

[1] J Evans and R Geerken ldquoDiscrimination between climateand human-induced dryland degradationrdquo Journal of AridEnvironments vol 57 no 4 pp 535ndash554 2004

[2] United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification(UNCCD) 2012 httpwwwunccdintActionProgrammesindia-eng2001pdf

[3] Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) ldquoManag-ing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climatechange adaptationrdquo inA Special Report ofWorking Groups I andII of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change C B FieldV Barros T F Stocker et al Eds p 582 Cambridge UniversityPress Cambridge UK 2012

[4] S M Vicente-Serrano J M Cuadrat-Prats and A RomoldquoAridity influence on vegetation patterns in the middle EbroValley (Spain) evaluation by means of AVHRR images andclimate interpolation techniquesrdquo Journal of Arid Environmentsvol 66 no 2 pp 353ndash375 2006

[5] A Arora R K Sairam and G C Srivastava ldquoOxidative stressand antioxidative system in plantsrdquo Current Science vol 82 no10 pp 1227ndash1238 2002

[6] Millennium Assessment ReportmdashDry Land Systems Chapter22 pp 625 October 2014 httpwwwmillenniumassessmentorgdocumentsdocument291aspxpdf

[7] Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) ldquoSum-mary forpolicymakersrdquo in Climate Change 2013 The PhysicalScience Basis Contribution of Working Group I to the FifthAssessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange T F Stocker D Qin G-K Plattner et al Eds

p 1535 Cambridge University Press Cambridge UK 2013httpwwwipccchreportar5wg1Sealevelrisescenario

[8] B Shifteh Somersquoe A Ezani and H Tabari ldquoSpatiotemporaltrends of aridity index in arid and semi-arid regions of IranrdquoTheoretical and Applied Climatology vol 111 no 1-2 pp 149ndash160 2013

[9] S Golian B Saghafian S Sheshangosht and H GhalkhanildquoComparison of classification and clustering methods in spatialrainfall pattern recognition at Northern Iranrdquo Theoretical andApplied Climatology vol 102 no 3 pp 319ndash329 2010

[10] M R Kousari M R Ekhtesasi M Tazeh M A S Naeini andMAA Zarch ldquoAn investigation of the Iranian climatic changesby considering the precipitation temperature and relativehumidity parametersrdquoTheoretical and Applied Climatology vol103 no 3-4 pp 321ndash335 2011

[11] MTurkes andGAltan ldquoAn ecological biogeography analysis ofthe impacts of climatic variations and forest fires on the naturalenvironment nature protection areas and biota in the Mugladistrictrdquo Ege Cografya Dergisi vol 22 pp 57ndash76 2013

[12] United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change(UNFCCC) Climate Change Impact Vulnerabilities and Adap-tation in Developing Countries United Nations FrameworkConvention on Climate Change New York NY USA 2007

[13] D B Lobell K G Cassman and C B Field ldquoCrop yield gapstheir importance magnitudes and causesrdquo Annual Review ofEnvironment and Resources vol 34 pp 179ndash204 2009

[14] D B Lobell W Schlenker and J Costa-Roberts ldquoClimatetrends and global crop production since 1980rdquo Science vol 333no 6042 pp 616ndash620 2011

[15] United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification(UNCCD) United Nations Convention to Combat Desertifica-tion in Countries Experiencing Serious Drought andor Deser-tification Particularly in Africa United Nations Convention toCombat Desertification (UNCCD) 1994 httpwwwunccdint

[16] United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification(UNCCD) Report 2012 httpwwwunccdintActionPro-grammesindia-eng2001pdf

[17] S U Islam N Rehman and M M Sheikh ldquoFuture change inthe frequency of warm and cold spells over Pakistan simulatedby the PRECIS regional climate modelrdquo Climatic Change vol94 no 1-2 pp 35ndash45 2009

[18] S A Rao H S Chaudhari S Pokhrel and B N GoswamildquoUnusual central Indian drought of summer monsoon 2008role of southern tropical Indian Ocean warmingrdquo Journal ofClimate vol 23 no 19 pp 5163ndash5174 2010

[19] R K Chaturvedi J Joshi M Jayaraman G Bala and N HRavindranath ldquoMulti model climate change projections forIndia under representative concentration pathwaysrdquo CurrentScience vol 103 no 7 pp 1ndash12 2012

[20] K RupaKumar and R G Ashrit ldquoRegional aspects of global cli-mate change simulations validation and assessment of climateresponse over Indian monsoon region to transient increase ofgreenhouse gases and sulfate aerosolsrdquo Mausam vol 52 no 1pp 229ndash244 2001

[21] V Geethalakshmi A Lakshmanan D Rajalakshmi et alldquoClimate change impact assessment and adaptation strategiesto sustain rice production in Cauvery basin of Tamil NadurdquoCurrent Science vol 101 no 3 pp 342ndash347 2011

[22] G Jung and H Kunstmann ldquoHigh-resolution regional climatemodeling for the Volta region of West Africardquo Journal of

The Scientific World Journal 11

Geophysical Research Atmospheres vol 112 no 23 Article IDD23108 2007

[23] UNCCD United Nations Convention to Combat Desertifica-tion in Countries Experiencing Serious Drought andor Deser-tification Particularly in Africa 1994 httpwwwunccdintenPagesdefaultaspx

[24] J Fuhrer ldquoAgroecosystem responses to combinations of ele-vated CO

2

ozone and global climate changerdquo AgricultureEcosystems and Environment vol 97 no 1ndash3 pp 1ndash20 2003

[25] R Pravalie ldquoClimate issues on aridity trends of southernOltenia in the last five decadesrdquo Geographia Technica vol 1 pp70ndash79 2013

[26] C Paltineanu N Tanasescu E Chitu and I F MihailesculdquoRelationships between the De Martonne aridity index andwater requirements of some representative crops a case studyfrom Romaniardquo International Agrophysics vol 21 no 1 pp 81ndash93 2007

[27] A-E Croitoru A Piticar C S Dragota and D C BuradaldquoRecent changes in reference evapotranspiration in RomaniardquoGlobal and Planetary Change vol 111 pp 127ndash132 2013

[28] I Hrnjak T Lukic M B Gavrilov S B Markovic MUnkasevic and I Tosic ldquoAridity in Vojvodina SerbiardquoTheoret-ical and Applied Climatology vol 115 no 1-2 pp 323ndash332 2014

Submit your manuscripts athttpwwwhindawicom

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

ClimatologyJournal of

EcologyInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

EarthquakesJournal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom

Applied ampEnvironmentalSoil Science

Volume 2014

Mining

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporation httpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

International Journal of

Geophysics

OceanographyInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Journal of Computational Environmental SciencesHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Journal ofPetroleum Engineering

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

GeochemistryHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Journal of

Atmospheric SciencesInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

OceanographyHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Advances in

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

MineralogyInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

MeteorologyAdvances in

The Scientific World JournalHindawi Publishing Corporation httpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Paleontology JournalHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

ScientificaHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Geological ResearchJournal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Geology Advances in

8 The Scientific World Journal

N

W E

S2010ndash2040 2041ndash2070

2071ndash2098

79∘20

9984000998400998400E 79

∘40

9984000998400998400E 80

∘09984000998400998400E 80

∘20

9984000998400998400E

79∘20

9984000998400998400E 79

∘40

9984000998400998400E 80

∘09984000998400998400E 80

∘20

9984000998400998400E 80

∘40

9984000998400998400E

79∘20

9984000998400998400E 79

∘40

9984000998400998400E 80

∘09984000998400998400E 80

∘20

9984000998400998400E

12∘209984000998400998400

N12∘409984000998400998400

N13∘09984000998400998400

N13∘209984000998400998400

N

12∘209984000998400998400

N12∘409984000998400998400

N13∘09984000998400998400

N13∘209984000998400998400

N

12∘409984000998400998400

N13∘09984000998400998400

N13∘209984000998400998400

N

12∘409984000998400998400

N13∘09984000998400998400

N13∘209984000998400998400

N

0 5 10 20 30 40

(km)

Change in rainfall ()

Belo

wminus6

2ndash6

6ndash10

10

ndash14

14

ndash18

18

ndash22

26

ndash30

22

ndash26

30

ndash34

34

ndash38

38

ndash42

minus6

ndashminus2

minus2

ndash2

Figure 10 Spatial distribution of projected rainfall in the baseline near-century mid-century and end-century

the most vulnerable areas to semiaridity are the southeasternregions and they reported that the usage of DMI is moreappropriate for this kind of assessments compared to IPindex It can be concluded that some terrestrial ecosystemsare highly prone to rise in aridity and resultant dryness inresponse to the warming climatic indications

4 Conclusions

This research has shown that warming is pronounced in thestudy region and indicates a notable day time and night timewarming of 23∘C and 25∘C in future under RCP 45 Anapparent drying trend was observed with a gradient from

The Scientific World Journal 9

N

W E

S

79∘20

9984000998400998400E 79

∘40

9984000998400998400E 80

∘09984000998400998400E 80

∘20

9984000998400998400E

79∘20

9984000998400998400E 79

∘40

9984000998400998400E 80

∘09984000998400998400E 80

∘20

9984000998400998400E 79

∘20

9984000998400998400E 79

∘40

9984000998400998400E 80

∘09984000998400998400E 80

∘20

9984000998400998400E

79∘20

9984000998400998400E 79

∘40

9984000998400998400E 80

∘09984000998400998400E 80

∘20

9984000998400998400E

12∘209984000998400998400

N12∘409984000998400998400

N13∘09984000998400998400

N13∘209984000998400998400

N12∘209984000998400998400

N12∘409984000998400998400

N13∘09984000998400998400

N13∘209984000998400998400

N

12∘209984000998400998400

N12∘409984000998400998400

N13∘09984000998400998400

N13∘209984000998400998400

N12∘209984000998400998400

N12∘409984000998400998400

N13∘09984000998400998400

N13∘209984000998400998400

N

1971ndash2000 2010ndash2040

2041ndash2070 2071ndash2098

0 5 10 20 30 40

(km)0 5 10 20 30 40

(km)

137ndash144

144ndash148

148ndash152

152ndash157

157ndash164

minus049ndashminus037

minus037ndashminus025

minus025ndashminus013

minus013ndashminus002

minus002ndash011

minus079ndashminus062

minus062ndashminus046

minus046ndashminus032

minus032ndashminus017

minus017ndashminus0009

IDM (mm∘C)

IDM (mm∘C) IDM (mm∘C)

IDM (mm∘C)

minus085ndashminus065

minus065ndashminus047

minus047ndashminus031

minus031ndashminus019

minus019ndashminus002

Figure 11 Projected changes in aridity in baseline period (1971ndash2000) near-century (2010ndash2040)mid-century (2040ndash2070) and end-century(2070ndash2100)

10 The Scientific World Journal

northwestern to southeastern parts of the study area towardsthe end of the 21st century as there was a decline in the DeMartonneAridity index valuesThe index values for the base-line period ranged from 137 to 164mm∘C characterizingthis area under semiarid climate Similar studies using higherresolution projection data would provide a clearer picture atsubdistrict level Microlevel studies are the need of the houras there exists spatial variability in climatic conditions and todesign local level planning It is very indispensable for Indiato generate observed data at microlevel and make it availableto the scientific research community to validate these kinds ofstudies This would worsen the already existing acute waterscarcity issues of this area in general and may aggravate thedrying of rivers lakes and farm ponds and these areas maybecome not suitable for irrigated agriculture practices in thefuture It is a crucial call that these scientific inputs need to beincorporated while framing local policies

Conflict of Interests

The authors declare no conflict of interests regarding thepublication of this paper

Acknowledgment

The first author gratefully acknowledges the Anna CentenaryResearch Fellowship under the Department of Civil Engi-neering Anna University for providing the financial supportfor this research work

References

[1] J Evans and R Geerken ldquoDiscrimination between climateand human-induced dryland degradationrdquo Journal of AridEnvironments vol 57 no 4 pp 535ndash554 2004

[2] United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification(UNCCD) 2012 httpwwwunccdintActionProgrammesindia-eng2001pdf

[3] Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) ldquoManag-ing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climatechange adaptationrdquo inA Special Report ofWorking Groups I andII of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change C B FieldV Barros T F Stocker et al Eds p 582 Cambridge UniversityPress Cambridge UK 2012

[4] S M Vicente-Serrano J M Cuadrat-Prats and A RomoldquoAridity influence on vegetation patterns in the middle EbroValley (Spain) evaluation by means of AVHRR images andclimate interpolation techniquesrdquo Journal of Arid Environmentsvol 66 no 2 pp 353ndash375 2006

[5] A Arora R K Sairam and G C Srivastava ldquoOxidative stressand antioxidative system in plantsrdquo Current Science vol 82 no10 pp 1227ndash1238 2002

[6] Millennium Assessment ReportmdashDry Land Systems Chapter22 pp 625 October 2014 httpwwwmillenniumassessmentorgdocumentsdocument291aspxpdf

[7] Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) ldquoSum-mary forpolicymakersrdquo in Climate Change 2013 The PhysicalScience Basis Contribution of Working Group I to the FifthAssessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange T F Stocker D Qin G-K Plattner et al Eds

p 1535 Cambridge University Press Cambridge UK 2013httpwwwipccchreportar5wg1Sealevelrisescenario

[8] B Shifteh Somersquoe A Ezani and H Tabari ldquoSpatiotemporaltrends of aridity index in arid and semi-arid regions of IranrdquoTheoretical and Applied Climatology vol 111 no 1-2 pp 149ndash160 2013

[9] S Golian B Saghafian S Sheshangosht and H GhalkhanildquoComparison of classification and clustering methods in spatialrainfall pattern recognition at Northern Iranrdquo Theoretical andApplied Climatology vol 102 no 3 pp 319ndash329 2010

[10] M R Kousari M R Ekhtesasi M Tazeh M A S Naeini andMAA Zarch ldquoAn investigation of the Iranian climatic changesby considering the precipitation temperature and relativehumidity parametersrdquoTheoretical and Applied Climatology vol103 no 3-4 pp 321ndash335 2011

[11] MTurkes andGAltan ldquoAn ecological biogeography analysis ofthe impacts of climatic variations and forest fires on the naturalenvironment nature protection areas and biota in the Mugladistrictrdquo Ege Cografya Dergisi vol 22 pp 57ndash76 2013

[12] United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change(UNFCCC) Climate Change Impact Vulnerabilities and Adap-tation in Developing Countries United Nations FrameworkConvention on Climate Change New York NY USA 2007

[13] D B Lobell K G Cassman and C B Field ldquoCrop yield gapstheir importance magnitudes and causesrdquo Annual Review ofEnvironment and Resources vol 34 pp 179ndash204 2009

[14] D B Lobell W Schlenker and J Costa-Roberts ldquoClimatetrends and global crop production since 1980rdquo Science vol 333no 6042 pp 616ndash620 2011

[15] United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification(UNCCD) United Nations Convention to Combat Desertifica-tion in Countries Experiencing Serious Drought andor Deser-tification Particularly in Africa United Nations Convention toCombat Desertification (UNCCD) 1994 httpwwwunccdint

[16] United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification(UNCCD) Report 2012 httpwwwunccdintActionPro-grammesindia-eng2001pdf

[17] S U Islam N Rehman and M M Sheikh ldquoFuture change inthe frequency of warm and cold spells over Pakistan simulatedby the PRECIS regional climate modelrdquo Climatic Change vol94 no 1-2 pp 35ndash45 2009

[18] S A Rao H S Chaudhari S Pokhrel and B N GoswamildquoUnusual central Indian drought of summer monsoon 2008role of southern tropical Indian Ocean warmingrdquo Journal ofClimate vol 23 no 19 pp 5163ndash5174 2010

[19] R K Chaturvedi J Joshi M Jayaraman G Bala and N HRavindranath ldquoMulti model climate change projections forIndia under representative concentration pathwaysrdquo CurrentScience vol 103 no 7 pp 1ndash12 2012

[20] K RupaKumar and R G Ashrit ldquoRegional aspects of global cli-mate change simulations validation and assessment of climateresponse over Indian monsoon region to transient increase ofgreenhouse gases and sulfate aerosolsrdquo Mausam vol 52 no 1pp 229ndash244 2001

[21] V Geethalakshmi A Lakshmanan D Rajalakshmi et alldquoClimate change impact assessment and adaptation strategiesto sustain rice production in Cauvery basin of Tamil NadurdquoCurrent Science vol 101 no 3 pp 342ndash347 2011

[22] G Jung and H Kunstmann ldquoHigh-resolution regional climatemodeling for the Volta region of West Africardquo Journal of

The Scientific World Journal 11

Geophysical Research Atmospheres vol 112 no 23 Article IDD23108 2007

[23] UNCCD United Nations Convention to Combat Desertifica-tion in Countries Experiencing Serious Drought andor Deser-tification Particularly in Africa 1994 httpwwwunccdintenPagesdefaultaspx

[24] J Fuhrer ldquoAgroecosystem responses to combinations of ele-vated CO

2

ozone and global climate changerdquo AgricultureEcosystems and Environment vol 97 no 1ndash3 pp 1ndash20 2003

[25] R Pravalie ldquoClimate issues on aridity trends of southernOltenia in the last five decadesrdquo Geographia Technica vol 1 pp70ndash79 2013

[26] C Paltineanu N Tanasescu E Chitu and I F MihailesculdquoRelationships between the De Martonne aridity index andwater requirements of some representative crops a case studyfrom Romaniardquo International Agrophysics vol 21 no 1 pp 81ndash93 2007

[27] A-E Croitoru A Piticar C S Dragota and D C BuradaldquoRecent changes in reference evapotranspiration in RomaniardquoGlobal and Planetary Change vol 111 pp 127ndash132 2013

[28] I Hrnjak T Lukic M B Gavrilov S B Markovic MUnkasevic and I Tosic ldquoAridity in Vojvodina SerbiardquoTheoret-ical and Applied Climatology vol 115 no 1-2 pp 323ndash332 2014

Submit your manuscripts athttpwwwhindawicom

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

ClimatologyJournal of

EcologyInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

EarthquakesJournal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom

Applied ampEnvironmentalSoil Science

Volume 2014

Mining

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporation httpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

International Journal of

Geophysics

OceanographyInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Journal of Computational Environmental SciencesHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Journal ofPetroleum Engineering

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

GeochemistryHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Journal of

Atmospheric SciencesInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

OceanographyHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Advances in

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

MineralogyInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

MeteorologyAdvances in

The Scientific World JournalHindawi Publishing Corporation httpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Paleontology JournalHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

ScientificaHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Geological ResearchJournal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Geology Advances in

The Scientific World Journal 9

N

W E

S

79∘20

9984000998400998400E 79

∘40

9984000998400998400E 80

∘09984000998400998400E 80

∘20

9984000998400998400E

79∘20

9984000998400998400E 79

∘40

9984000998400998400E 80

∘09984000998400998400E 80

∘20

9984000998400998400E 79

∘20

9984000998400998400E 79

∘40

9984000998400998400E 80

∘09984000998400998400E 80

∘20

9984000998400998400E

79∘20

9984000998400998400E 79

∘40

9984000998400998400E 80

∘09984000998400998400E 80

∘20

9984000998400998400E

12∘209984000998400998400

N12∘409984000998400998400

N13∘09984000998400998400

N13∘209984000998400998400

N12∘209984000998400998400

N12∘409984000998400998400

N13∘09984000998400998400

N13∘209984000998400998400

N

12∘209984000998400998400

N12∘409984000998400998400

N13∘09984000998400998400

N13∘209984000998400998400

N12∘209984000998400998400

N12∘409984000998400998400

N13∘09984000998400998400

N13∘209984000998400998400

N

1971ndash2000 2010ndash2040

2041ndash2070 2071ndash2098

0 5 10 20 30 40

(km)0 5 10 20 30 40

(km)

137ndash144

144ndash148

148ndash152

152ndash157

157ndash164

minus049ndashminus037

minus037ndashminus025

minus025ndashminus013

minus013ndashminus002

minus002ndash011

minus079ndashminus062

minus062ndashminus046

minus046ndashminus032

minus032ndashminus017

minus017ndashminus0009

IDM (mm∘C)

IDM (mm∘C) IDM (mm∘C)

IDM (mm∘C)

minus085ndashminus065

minus065ndashminus047

minus047ndashminus031

minus031ndashminus019

minus019ndashminus002

Figure 11 Projected changes in aridity in baseline period (1971ndash2000) near-century (2010ndash2040)mid-century (2040ndash2070) and end-century(2070ndash2100)

10 The Scientific World Journal

northwestern to southeastern parts of the study area towardsthe end of the 21st century as there was a decline in the DeMartonneAridity index valuesThe index values for the base-line period ranged from 137 to 164mm∘C characterizingthis area under semiarid climate Similar studies using higherresolution projection data would provide a clearer picture atsubdistrict level Microlevel studies are the need of the houras there exists spatial variability in climatic conditions and todesign local level planning It is very indispensable for Indiato generate observed data at microlevel and make it availableto the scientific research community to validate these kinds ofstudies This would worsen the already existing acute waterscarcity issues of this area in general and may aggravate thedrying of rivers lakes and farm ponds and these areas maybecome not suitable for irrigated agriculture practices in thefuture It is a crucial call that these scientific inputs need to beincorporated while framing local policies

Conflict of Interests

The authors declare no conflict of interests regarding thepublication of this paper

Acknowledgment

The first author gratefully acknowledges the Anna CentenaryResearch Fellowship under the Department of Civil Engi-neering Anna University for providing the financial supportfor this research work

References

[1] J Evans and R Geerken ldquoDiscrimination between climateand human-induced dryland degradationrdquo Journal of AridEnvironments vol 57 no 4 pp 535ndash554 2004

[2] United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification(UNCCD) 2012 httpwwwunccdintActionProgrammesindia-eng2001pdf

[3] Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) ldquoManag-ing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climatechange adaptationrdquo inA Special Report ofWorking Groups I andII of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change C B FieldV Barros T F Stocker et al Eds p 582 Cambridge UniversityPress Cambridge UK 2012

[4] S M Vicente-Serrano J M Cuadrat-Prats and A RomoldquoAridity influence on vegetation patterns in the middle EbroValley (Spain) evaluation by means of AVHRR images andclimate interpolation techniquesrdquo Journal of Arid Environmentsvol 66 no 2 pp 353ndash375 2006

[5] A Arora R K Sairam and G C Srivastava ldquoOxidative stressand antioxidative system in plantsrdquo Current Science vol 82 no10 pp 1227ndash1238 2002

[6] Millennium Assessment ReportmdashDry Land Systems Chapter22 pp 625 October 2014 httpwwwmillenniumassessmentorgdocumentsdocument291aspxpdf

[7] Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) ldquoSum-mary forpolicymakersrdquo in Climate Change 2013 The PhysicalScience Basis Contribution of Working Group I to the FifthAssessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange T F Stocker D Qin G-K Plattner et al Eds

p 1535 Cambridge University Press Cambridge UK 2013httpwwwipccchreportar5wg1Sealevelrisescenario

[8] B Shifteh Somersquoe A Ezani and H Tabari ldquoSpatiotemporaltrends of aridity index in arid and semi-arid regions of IranrdquoTheoretical and Applied Climatology vol 111 no 1-2 pp 149ndash160 2013

[9] S Golian B Saghafian S Sheshangosht and H GhalkhanildquoComparison of classification and clustering methods in spatialrainfall pattern recognition at Northern Iranrdquo Theoretical andApplied Climatology vol 102 no 3 pp 319ndash329 2010

[10] M R Kousari M R Ekhtesasi M Tazeh M A S Naeini andMAA Zarch ldquoAn investigation of the Iranian climatic changesby considering the precipitation temperature and relativehumidity parametersrdquoTheoretical and Applied Climatology vol103 no 3-4 pp 321ndash335 2011

[11] MTurkes andGAltan ldquoAn ecological biogeography analysis ofthe impacts of climatic variations and forest fires on the naturalenvironment nature protection areas and biota in the Mugladistrictrdquo Ege Cografya Dergisi vol 22 pp 57ndash76 2013

[12] United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change(UNFCCC) Climate Change Impact Vulnerabilities and Adap-tation in Developing Countries United Nations FrameworkConvention on Climate Change New York NY USA 2007

[13] D B Lobell K G Cassman and C B Field ldquoCrop yield gapstheir importance magnitudes and causesrdquo Annual Review ofEnvironment and Resources vol 34 pp 179ndash204 2009

[14] D B Lobell W Schlenker and J Costa-Roberts ldquoClimatetrends and global crop production since 1980rdquo Science vol 333no 6042 pp 616ndash620 2011

[15] United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification(UNCCD) United Nations Convention to Combat Desertifica-tion in Countries Experiencing Serious Drought andor Deser-tification Particularly in Africa United Nations Convention toCombat Desertification (UNCCD) 1994 httpwwwunccdint

[16] United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification(UNCCD) Report 2012 httpwwwunccdintActionPro-grammesindia-eng2001pdf

[17] S U Islam N Rehman and M M Sheikh ldquoFuture change inthe frequency of warm and cold spells over Pakistan simulatedby the PRECIS regional climate modelrdquo Climatic Change vol94 no 1-2 pp 35ndash45 2009

[18] S A Rao H S Chaudhari S Pokhrel and B N GoswamildquoUnusual central Indian drought of summer monsoon 2008role of southern tropical Indian Ocean warmingrdquo Journal ofClimate vol 23 no 19 pp 5163ndash5174 2010

[19] R K Chaturvedi J Joshi M Jayaraman G Bala and N HRavindranath ldquoMulti model climate change projections forIndia under representative concentration pathwaysrdquo CurrentScience vol 103 no 7 pp 1ndash12 2012

[20] K RupaKumar and R G Ashrit ldquoRegional aspects of global cli-mate change simulations validation and assessment of climateresponse over Indian monsoon region to transient increase ofgreenhouse gases and sulfate aerosolsrdquo Mausam vol 52 no 1pp 229ndash244 2001

[21] V Geethalakshmi A Lakshmanan D Rajalakshmi et alldquoClimate change impact assessment and adaptation strategiesto sustain rice production in Cauvery basin of Tamil NadurdquoCurrent Science vol 101 no 3 pp 342ndash347 2011

[22] G Jung and H Kunstmann ldquoHigh-resolution regional climatemodeling for the Volta region of West Africardquo Journal of

The Scientific World Journal 11

Geophysical Research Atmospheres vol 112 no 23 Article IDD23108 2007

[23] UNCCD United Nations Convention to Combat Desertifica-tion in Countries Experiencing Serious Drought andor Deser-tification Particularly in Africa 1994 httpwwwunccdintenPagesdefaultaspx

[24] J Fuhrer ldquoAgroecosystem responses to combinations of ele-vated CO

2

ozone and global climate changerdquo AgricultureEcosystems and Environment vol 97 no 1ndash3 pp 1ndash20 2003

[25] R Pravalie ldquoClimate issues on aridity trends of southernOltenia in the last five decadesrdquo Geographia Technica vol 1 pp70ndash79 2013

[26] C Paltineanu N Tanasescu E Chitu and I F MihailesculdquoRelationships between the De Martonne aridity index andwater requirements of some representative crops a case studyfrom Romaniardquo International Agrophysics vol 21 no 1 pp 81ndash93 2007

[27] A-E Croitoru A Piticar C S Dragota and D C BuradaldquoRecent changes in reference evapotranspiration in RomaniardquoGlobal and Planetary Change vol 111 pp 127ndash132 2013

[28] I Hrnjak T Lukic M B Gavrilov S B Markovic MUnkasevic and I Tosic ldquoAridity in Vojvodina SerbiardquoTheoret-ical and Applied Climatology vol 115 no 1-2 pp 323ndash332 2014

Submit your manuscripts athttpwwwhindawicom

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

ClimatologyJournal of

EcologyInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

EarthquakesJournal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom

Applied ampEnvironmentalSoil Science

Volume 2014

Mining

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporation httpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

International Journal of

Geophysics

OceanographyInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Journal of Computational Environmental SciencesHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Journal ofPetroleum Engineering

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

GeochemistryHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Journal of

Atmospheric SciencesInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

OceanographyHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Advances in

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

MineralogyInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

MeteorologyAdvances in

The Scientific World JournalHindawi Publishing Corporation httpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Paleontology JournalHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

ScientificaHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Geological ResearchJournal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Geology Advances in

10 The Scientific World Journal

northwestern to southeastern parts of the study area towardsthe end of the 21st century as there was a decline in the DeMartonneAridity index valuesThe index values for the base-line period ranged from 137 to 164mm∘C characterizingthis area under semiarid climate Similar studies using higherresolution projection data would provide a clearer picture atsubdistrict level Microlevel studies are the need of the houras there exists spatial variability in climatic conditions and todesign local level planning It is very indispensable for Indiato generate observed data at microlevel and make it availableto the scientific research community to validate these kinds ofstudies This would worsen the already existing acute waterscarcity issues of this area in general and may aggravate thedrying of rivers lakes and farm ponds and these areas maybecome not suitable for irrigated agriculture practices in thefuture It is a crucial call that these scientific inputs need to beincorporated while framing local policies

Conflict of Interests

The authors declare no conflict of interests regarding thepublication of this paper

Acknowledgment

The first author gratefully acknowledges the Anna CentenaryResearch Fellowship under the Department of Civil Engi-neering Anna University for providing the financial supportfor this research work

References

[1] J Evans and R Geerken ldquoDiscrimination between climateand human-induced dryland degradationrdquo Journal of AridEnvironments vol 57 no 4 pp 535ndash554 2004

[2] United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification(UNCCD) 2012 httpwwwunccdintActionProgrammesindia-eng2001pdf

[3] Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) ldquoManag-ing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climatechange adaptationrdquo inA Special Report ofWorking Groups I andII of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change C B FieldV Barros T F Stocker et al Eds p 582 Cambridge UniversityPress Cambridge UK 2012

[4] S M Vicente-Serrano J M Cuadrat-Prats and A RomoldquoAridity influence on vegetation patterns in the middle EbroValley (Spain) evaluation by means of AVHRR images andclimate interpolation techniquesrdquo Journal of Arid Environmentsvol 66 no 2 pp 353ndash375 2006

[5] A Arora R K Sairam and G C Srivastava ldquoOxidative stressand antioxidative system in plantsrdquo Current Science vol 82 no10 pp 1227ndash1238 2002

[6] Millennium Assessment ReportmdashDry Land Systems Chapter22 pp 625 October 2014 httpwwwmillenniumassessmentorgdocumentsdocument291aspxpdf

[7] Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) ldquoSum-mary forpolicymakersrdquo in Climate Change 2013 The PhysicalScience Basis Contribution of Working Group I to the FifthAssessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange T F Stocker D Qin G-K Plattner et al Eds

p 1535 Cambridge University Press Cambridge UK 2013httpwwwipccchreportar5wg1Sealevelrisescenario

[8] B Shifteh Somersquoe A Ezani and H Tabari ldquoSpatiotemporaltrends of aridity index in arid and semi-arid regions of IranrdquoTheoretical and Applied Climatology vol 111 no 1-2 pp 149ndash160 2013

[9] S Golian B Saghafian S Sheshangosht and H GhalkhanildquoComparison of classification and clustering methods in spatialrainfall pattern recognition at Northern Iranrdquo Theoretical andApplied Climatology vol 102 no 3 pp 319ndash329 2010

[10] M R Kousari M R Ekhtesasi M Tazeh M A S Naeini andMAA Zarch ldquoAn investigation of the Iranian climatic changesby considering the precipitation temperature and relativehumidity parametersrdquoTheoretical and Applied Climatology vol103 no 3-4 pp 321ndash335 2011

[11] MTurkes andGAltan ldquoAn ecological biogeography analysis ofthe impacts of climatic variations and forest fires on the naturalenvironment nature protection areas and biota in the Mugladistrictrdquo Ege Cografya Dergisi vol 22 pp 57ndash76 2013

[12] United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change(UNFCCC) Climate Change Impact Vulnerabilities and Adap-tation in Developing Countries United Nations FrameworkConvention on Climate Change New York NY USA 2007

[13] D B Lobell K G Cassman and C B Field ldquoCrop yield gapstheir importance magnitudes and causesrdquo Annual Review ofEnvironment and Resources vol 34 pp 179ndash204 2009

[14] D B Lobell W Schlenker and J Costa-Roberts ldquoClimatetrends and global crop production since 1980rdquo Science vol 333no 6042 pp 616ndash620 2011

[15] United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification(UNCCD) United Nations Convention to Combat Desertifica-tion in Countries Experiencing Serious Drought andor Deser-tification Particularly in Africa United Nations Convention toCombat Desertification (UNCCD) 1994 httpwwwunccdint

[16] United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification(UNCCD) Report 2012 httpwwwunccdintActionPro-grammesindia-eng2001pdf

[17] S U Islam N Rehman and M M Sheikh ldquoFuture change inthe frequency of warm and cold spells over Pakistan simulatedby the PRECIS regional climate modelrdquo Climatic Change vol94 no 1-2 pp 35ndash45 2009

[18] S A Rao H S Chaudhari S Pokhrel and B N GoswamildquoUnusual central Indian drought of summer monsoon 2008role of southern tropical Indian Ocean warmingrdquo Journal ofClimate vol 23 no 19 pp 5163ndash5174 2010

[19] R K Chaturvedi J Joshi M Jayaraman G Bala and N HRavindranath ldquoMulti model climate change projections forIndia under representative concentration pathwaysrdquo CurrentScience vol 103 no 7 pp 1ndash12 2012

[20] K RupaKumar and R G Ashrit ldquoRegional aspects of global cli-mate change simulations validation and assessment of climateresponse over Indian monsoon region to transient increase ofgreenhouse gases and sulfate aerosolsrdquo Mausam vol 52 no 1pp 229ndash244 2001

[21] V Geethalakshmi A Lakshmanan D Rajalakshmi et alldquoClimate change impact assessment and adaptation strategiesto sustain rice production in Cauvery basin of Tamil NadurdquoCurrent Science vol 101 no 3 pp 342ndash347 2011

[22] G Jung and H Kunstmann ldquoHigh-resolution regional climatemodeling for the Volta region of West Africardquo Journal of

The Scientific World Journal 11

Geophysical Research Atmospheres vol 112 no 23 Article IDD23108 2007

[23] UNCCD United Nations Convention to Combat Desertifica-tion in Countries Experiencing Serious Drought andor Deser-tification Particularly in Africa 1994 httpwwwunccdintenPagesdefaultaspx

[24] J Fuhrer ldquoAgroecosystem responses to combinations of ele-vated CO

2

ozone and global climate changerdquo AgricultureEcosystems and Environment vol 97 no 1ndash3 pp 1ndash20 2003

[25] R Pravalie ldquoClimate issues on aridity trends of southernOltenia in the last five decadesrdquo Geographia Technica vol 1 pp70ndash79 2013

[26] C Paltineanu N Tanasescu E Chitu and I F MihailesculdquoRelationships between the De Martonne aridity index andwater requirements of some representative crops a case studyfrom Romaniardquo International Agrophysics vol 21 no 1 pp 81ndash93 2007

[27] A-E Croitoru A Piticar C S Dragota and D C BuradaldquoRecent changes in reference evapotranspiration in RomaniardquoGlobal and Planetary Change vol 111 pp 127ndash132 2013

[28] I Hrnjak T Lukic M B Gavrilov S B Markovic MUnkasevic and I Tosic ldquoAridity in Vojvodina SerbiardquoTheoret-ical and Applied Climatology vol 115 no 1-2 pp 323ndash332 2014

Submit your manuscripts athttpwwwhindawicom

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

ClimatologyJournal of

EcologyInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

EarthquakesJournal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom

Applied ampEnvironmentalSoil Science

Volume 2014

Mining

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporation httpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

International Journal of

Geophysics

OceanographyInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Journal of Computational Environmental SciencesHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Journal ofPetroleum Engineering

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

GeochemistryHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Journal of

Atmospheric SciencesInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

OceanographyHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Advances in

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

MineralogyInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

MeteorologyAdvances in

The Scientific World JournalHindawi Publishing Corporation httpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Paleontology JournalHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

ScientificaHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Geological ResearchJournal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Geology Advances in

The Scientific World Journal 11

Geophysical Research Atmospheres vol 112 no 23 Article IDD23108 2007

[23] UNCCD United Nations Convention to Combat Desertifica-tion in Countries Experiencing Serious Drought andor Deser-tification Particularly in Africa 1994 httpwwwunccdintenPagesdefaultaspx

[24] J Fuhrer ldquoAgroecosystem responses to combinations of ele-vated CO

2

ozone and global climate changerdquo AgricultureEcosystems and Environment vol 97 no 1ndash3 pp 1ndash20 2003

[25] R Pravalie ldquoClimate issues on aridity trends of southernOltenia in the last five decadesrdquo Geographia Technica vol 1 pp70ndash79 2013

[26] C Paltineanu N Tanasescu E Chitu and I F MihailesculdquoRelationships between the De Martonne aridity index andwater requirements of some representative crops a case studyfrom Romaniardquo International Agrophysics vol 21 no 1 pp 81ndash93 2007

[27] A-E Croitoru A Piticar C S Dragota and D C BuradaldquoRecent changes in reference evapotranspiration in RomaniardquoGlobal and Planetary Change vol 111 pp 127ndash132 2013

[28] I Hrnjak T Lukic M B Gavrilov S B Markovic MUnkasevic and I Tosic ldquoAridity in Vojvodina SerbiardquoTheoret-ical and Applied Climatology vol 115 no 1-2 pp 323ndash332 2014

Submit your manuscripts athttpwwwhindawicom

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

ClimatologyJournal of

EcologyInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

EarthquakesJournal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom

Applied ampEnvironmentalSoil Science

Volume 2014

Mining

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporation httpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

International Journal of

Geophysics

OceanographyInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Journal of Computational Environmental SciencesHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Journal ofPetroleum Engineering

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

GeochemistryHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Journal of

Atmospheric SciencesInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

OceanographyHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Advances in

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

MineralogyInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

MeteorologyAdvances in

The Scientific World JournalHindawi Publishing Corporation httpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Paleontology JournalHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

ScientificaHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Geological ResearchJournal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Geology Advances in

Submit your manuscripts athttpwwwhindawicom

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

ClimatologyJournal of

EcologyInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

EarthquakesJournal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom

Applied ampEnvironmentalSoil Science

Volume 2014

Mining

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporation httpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

International Journal of

Geophysics

OceanographyInternational Journal of

Hindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

Journal of Computational Environmental SciencesHindawi Publishing Corporationhttpwwwhindawicom Volume 2014

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