research department morning research focus...2015 full-year fyp hk$34.30 ↑ accumulate -- y...

Research Department Morning Research Focus

8 December 2015

Table of Contents 目录 Industry and Company Focus 行业和公司焦点

China U-ton (06168 HK): Signed Strategic Cooperation Framework with CRSCIC

中国优通 (06168 HK): 与通号通信订立战略合作

Latest Reports 最新报告摘要

Company Name 公司名称

Code 代码

Title 标题

TP 目标价

Chg 变动

Rating 评级

Chg 变动

EPS Est. Change? 盈利预测

是否改变

China Railway Construction 01186 HK

Stable Business with Huge Disposal Gain, Maintain“Accumulate”

HK$12.60 ↓ Accumulate -- Y

中国铁建 01186 HK 业务稳定并有大额的出售收益，维持

“收集” HK$12.60 ↓ 收集 -- 是

Colour Life 01778 HK Fast Growing Property Management and Community Services Provider, "Accumulate"

HK$7.10 -- Accumulate -- N

彩生活 01778 HK 高速度增长的物业管理以及社区服

务商，“收集” HK$7.10 -- 收集 -- 否

Insurance Sector Sector Report: A Revitalised Life Insurance Sector, “Outperform” -- Outperform -- N

保险行业行业报告: 重现活力的寿险行业，

“跑赢大市” -- 跑赢大市 -- 否

China Life 02628 HK Expecting Robust Yoy Growth in 2015 Full-year FYP HK$34.30 ↑ Accumulate -- Y

中国人寿 02628 HK 预期 2015 年全年首年保费录得较快

同比增长 HK$34.30 ↑ 收集 -- 是

Ping An Insurance 02318 HK “Buy” on Ping An’s Insurance

Business Quality HK$58.80 ↑ Buy -- Y

中国平安 02318 HK 基于平安保险业务品质，维持“买入”

评级 HK$58.80 ↑ 买入 -- 是

China Pacific Insurance Group 02601 HK Maintain “Neutral” on P&C

Business Overhang HK$38.00 ↑ Neutral -- Y

中国太保 02601 HK 对公司财产险业务的考量而维持“中

性” HK$38.00 ↑ 中性 -- 是

PICC Group 01339 HK Improving Life Insurance Products Distribution Strategy

HK$5.30 ↑ Accumulate -- Y

人保集团 01339 HK 寿险营销策略正在改善 HK$5.30 ↑ 收集 -- 是

PICC P&C 02328 HK Expected Auto Insurance Combined Ratio Improvement Amid Pricing Reform

HK$20.90 ↑ Accumulate -- Y

中国财险 02328 HK 在费率改革中期待车险综合成本率

的改善 HK$20.90 ↑ 收集 -- 是

Research Focus See the last page for disclaimer of 14

New China Life 01336 HK Fine Tuned Target Price to HKD 45.20, “Accumulate” HK$45.20 ↑ Accumulate -- Y

新华保险 01336 HK 微调目标价至每股 45.20 港元，维持

“收集”投资评级 HK$45.20 ↑ 收集 -- 是

CTIH 00966 HK “Buy” on CTIH’s Life Insurance Outlook HK$33.80 ↑ Buy ↑ Y

中国太平 00966 HK 看好公司寿险业务前景，上调至“买

入” HK$33.80 ↑ 买入 ↑ 是

Appendices：Chinese Version of the Industry and Company Focus, Latest Reports. 后附：行业和公司焦点，最新报告摘要中文版。

HSI Performance HSCEI Performance

17,000

19,000

21,000

23,000

25,000

27,000

29,000

Dec/14 Mar/15 Jun/15 Sep/15 Dec/15

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

Dec/14 Mar/15 Jun/15 Sep/15 Dec/15 Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg

Newly Published Key Economic Data for China, US and Europe 中美欧最新公布的重要经济数据

Country 国家

Indicator 指标名称

Data Period 数据期间

Current Value 当期值

MoM / QoQ 环比变动

YoY 同比变动

Market Consensus 市场一致预期

China 中国

Foreign exchange reserve (bn USD) 外汇储备（十亿美元）

November 11月 3,438.3 (2.5%) (10.6%) 3,492.5

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China, Bloomberg. 数据来源：国家统计局、彭博。

Research Focus

See the last page for disclaimer of 14

Industry and Company Focus China U-ton (06168 HK): Signed Strategic Cooperation Framework with CRSCIC

Analyst: Gary Wong

What happened: Qiushi, an indirect wholly-owned subsidiary of China U-ton (06168 HK), and CRSCIC, a wholly-owned subsidiary of CRSCC (03969 HK), entered into the Strategic Cooperation Framework Agreement pursuant to which, Qiushi and CRSCIC agreed to jointly cooperate in areas of communication construction, maintaining, enlarging and strengthening smart cities, informative construction, intelligent building and telecommunications operators as well as related maintenance.

Comments and Views: Based on CRSCIC’s SOE status and its strong customer network, the strategic cooperation between Qiushi and CRSCIC will enhance the Company’s competitiveness in telecommunication business by way of strengthening its technology support as well as customer relationship of low-voltage equipment integration services.

Investment suggestion: Current valuation is at 17.1x/13.6x/10.8x FY15/16/17 PER. The Company should maintain a fast growth in the next three years. Maintain “Accumulate” with a TP of HKD1.70.

Latest Reports China Railway Construction (01186 HK): Stable Business with Huge Disposal Gain, Maintain“Accumulate” Rating: Accumulate 6-18m TP: HK$12.60 Analyst: Gary Wong Report Date: 2015-12-07

Summary

China Railway Construction (01186 HK) 3Q15 revenue decreased by 0.1% YoY to RMB150,155 million. Net profit increased 4.3% YoY to RMB2,784 million. Results were in line with expectation. Gross margin increased 0.8 ppts YoY to 11.0%. During the first 9 months of 2015, the Company signed RMB556,398 million of new contracts, down 1.5% YoY. Of which railway new contracts were RMB162,074 million, down 15.2% YoY.

After growth rate dropping to a new low in three years for new contracts during 2Q15, it rebounded sharply in 3Q15 at 36.2% YoY. Logistics and materials trading remained the main results dragger in 1H15, which turned from a profit of RMB200 million in 1H14 to -RMB509 million in 1H15. We expect the segment’s poor performance should continue in the next 2 years. Moreover, CRCC High-Tech Equipment (“CHTE”) spin-off might generate RMB1,375 million of deemed disposal gain for the Company.

Reduce EPS estimates of FY15-17 by 5.4%, 9.1% and 8.4% respectively to RMB0.946, RMB0.949 and RMB1.070. The Company’s 10% discount to peers’ CRG and higher exposure in the booming infrastructure construction market and the proposed spin-off of CHTE are price drivers. Reduce the TP to HKD12.60, representing 11.1x/11.0x/9.8x FY15/16/17 PER. Maintain “Accumulate”.

Research Focus


Colour Life (01778 HK): Fast Growing Property Management and Community Services Provider, "Accumulate" Rating: Accumulate 6-18m TP: HK$7.10 Analyst: Van Liu/Noah Hudson Report Date: 2015-12-07

Summary

As at 30 June 2015, Colour LIfe's contracted GFA was 270.2 million sq.m. and the number of residential communities the Company managed or entered into consultancy services contracts with reached 1,700, representing growth of 31.6% and 34.4%, respectively, comparing with that as at 31 December 2014. From 2012 to 2014, total contracted GFA grew at a CAGR of 120.9%. Business segments are: 1) Property management services, 2) Engineering services and 3) Community leasing, sales and other services. Standardization, centralization and automation allow Colour Life to efficiently expand into new communities.

We forecast FY15-FY17 EPS to grow at a CAGR of 40.5%. The Company’s net profit grew at a CAGR of 83.1% from in FY12 to FY14, which was mainly attributable to expansion in contracted GFA. FY15 profit growth will be driven by the Company's June 17 acquisition of one of China's top property services providers Kaiyuan International, which guarantees annual net profit of at least RMB30 million.

We set Colour Life's investment rating as "Accumulate" with target price at HK$7.10. Our target price is a 20.2% discount to our DCF derived NAV of HK$8.89 per share and is equivalent to 21.0x, 15.3x and 12.7x 2015, 2016 and 2017 PER, respectively.

Sector Report: Insurance Sector: A Revitalised Life Insurance Sector, “Outperform”

Rating: Outperform 6-18m TP: n.a. Analyst: Dayton Wang Report Date: 2015-12-07

Summary

We maintain our positive view on the near-term outlook of China insurance sector as we see that China’s life insurance sector has entered a revitalisation phase after the completion of pricing reforms in major types of life insurance products. The expected satisfactory sector investment yield on insurers’ funds in 2015 and the rising popularity of individual annuity products are likely to fuel the premium growth in 2016.

We expect that the proportion of non-standard investment assets in the total investment assets of insurers’ funds continues to rise on expected dropping in bond yields in 2016. However, we expect the implementation of C-ROSS is likely to curb the growth of insurers’ investments in trust products.

Our 2016 targeted valuation is below 2011 level based on P/EV multiples. Our 2016 top pick in the coverage universe is Ping An (02318 HK, ~HKD 58.80, “Buy”) on life insurance premium growth quality. We also like PICC P&C (02328 HK, ~HKD 20.90 “Accumulate”) and CTIH (00966 HK, ~HKD 33.80, “Buy”).

Key downside risks include: 1/ Sudden contraction in individual agent headcount and an unexpected sharp drop in agent productivity and 2/ Unfavourable market conditions in the A-share market and China’s bond market.

China Life (02628 HK): Expecting Robust Yoy Growth in 2015 Full-year FYP

Rating: Accumulate 6-18m TP: HK$34.30 Analyst: Dayton Wang Report Date: 2015-12-07

Summary

We apply a NBV multiple of 10.5x in China Life’s 2016F based valuation. The assigned NBV multiple is derived with an assumed cost of equity of 10.19% and an assumed long-term growth rate in its annual FYP of 2.0%.

Fine tuned our target price to HKD 34.30, which translates into a 2016F P/EV multiple of 1.3x. Our target price is set by applying a valuation discount of 12.0% on the appraisal value of HKD 38.97 per share.

Research Focus


Key investment theses and upside risks include: 1/ Expected robust growth in 2015F full-year FYP on strengthened agency force and 2/ the Company’s EV is likely to record satisfactory yoy growth given China’s stabilizing A-share market.

Key downside risks include: 1/ Failure to retain a large number of agents with reduced agent productivity and 2/ Unfavourable market conditions in the A-share market and China’s corporate bond market.

Ping An Insurance (02318 HK):“Buy” on Ping An’s Insurance Business Quality

Rating: Buy 6-18m TP: HK$58.80 Analyst: Dayton Wang Report Date: 2015-12-07

Summary

We value Ping An using a 2016F based Sum-of-the-parts (“SOTP”) approach by assigning a 10.9x NBV multiple on Ping An’s life insurance business. The assigned NBV multiple is derived with an assumed cost of equity of 10.88% and an assumed long-term growth rate in annual FYP of 2.5%.

We raise our target price to HKD 58.80 per share, representing a 2016F P/Group EV multiple of 1.4x. Our target price is set by applying an 18.6% valuation discount on the appraisal value of the HKD 72.26 per share.

Key investment theses and upside risks include: 1/ Consistent individual agent focused distribution strategy in life insurance business and 2/ the potential removal of the valuation overhang of Lufax.

Key downside risks include: 1/ Failure to retain a large number of agents with reduced agent productivity, 2/ Unfavourable market conditions in the A-share market and China’s corporate bond market and 3/ Suppressed valuation on the Company’s banking operation due to rising quality concerns of loan assets.

China Pacific Insurance Group (02601 HK): Maintain “Neutral” on P&C Business Overhang

Rating: Neutral 6-18m TP: HK$38.00 Analyst: Dayton Wang Report Date: 2015-12-07

Summary

We value CPIC using a 2016F based Sum-of-the-parts (“SOTP”) approach by assigning an 8.8x NBV multiple on CPIC’s life insurance business and a fair P/B of 1.3x for CPIC’s P&C business. The assigned NBV multiple is derived with an assumed cost of equity of 12.64% and an assumed long-term growth rate in annual FYP of 1.5%.

Fine tuned our target price to HKD 38.00 per share, representing a 2016F P/ Group EV of 1.3x. Our target price is set by applying a 19.9% valuation discount on the appraisal value of the HKD 47.42 per share.

Key investment theses and upside risks include: 1/ the Company’s life business is more solid than its P&C business, although we see 2016F China automobile sector experiencing faster growth in sales.

Key downside risks include: 1/ Unfavourable market conditions in the A-share market and China’s corporate bond market and 2/ P&C underwriting profitability remains the key to lift overall valuation.

Research Focus


PICC Group (01339 HK): Improving Life Insurance Products Distribution Strategy


Summary

We value PICC Group using a 2016F based Sum-of-the-parts (“SOTP”) approach by assigning a 5.1x NBV multiple on the Company’s life insurance business and a fair P/B of 2.1x for its P&C insurance business. The assigned NBV multiple is derived with an assumed cost of equity of 10.34% and an assumed long-term growth rate in annual FYP of 1.0%.

Fine tuned our target price to HKD 5.30 per share, representing a 2016F P/B multiple of 1.4x. Our target price is derived by applying a 27.5% valuation discount on the appraisal value of the HKD 7.30 per share.

Key investment theses and upside risks include: 1/ the Company has a sector leading P&C insurance business under a separately listed subsidiary of PICC P&C, 2/ PICC Life has decided to improve its distribution strategy by building its individual agent force and 3/ PICC Health is expected to leverage its first mover advantage in China’s health insurance sector for underwriting margin improvement.

Key downside risks include: 1/ Life insurance: difficulty in NBM expansion and 2/ Unfavourable market conditions in the A-share market and China’s corporate bond market.

PICC P&C (02328 HK): Expected Auto Insurance Combined Ratio Improvement Amid Pricing Reform Rating: Accumulate 6-18m TP: HK$20.90 Analyst: Dayton Wang Report Date: 2015-12-07

Summary

We value PICC P&C using a fair P/B multiple of 2.6x on 2016F BPS. The assigned fair P/B multiple is derived with an assumed cost of equity of 9.39% and an assumed long-term growth rate of 2.0%

Lift target price to HKD 20.90 per share, representing a 2016F P/B multiple of 2.1x. Our target price is derived by applying a 17.3% valuation discount on the appraisal value of HKD 25.26 per share.

Key investment theses and upside risks include: 1/ A consistent outperformer in automobile insurance, 2/ Resilient agricultural underwriting margin and 3/ Limited exposure to a surge in claims due to Tianjin Explosions that is likely to remove the overhang.

Key downside risks include: 1/ Unfavourable China automobile business conditions and 2/ Severe natural disasters to result in unexpected surge in claims.

New China Life (01336 HK): Fine Tuned Target Price to HKD 45.20, “Accumulate”


Summary

We apply a NBV multiple of 5.4x in New China Life’s 2016F based valuation. The assigned NBV multiple is derived with an assumed cost of equity of 10.10% and an assumed long-term growth rate in annual FYP of 1.0%.

Fine tuned our target price to HKD 45.20 per share, representing a 2016F P/EV multiple of 1.0x. Our target price is set by applying a valuation discount of 22.9% on the appraisal value of HKD 58.62 per share.

Research Focus


Key investment theses and upside risks include: 1/ the Company has been placing more emphasis on product distribution through its individual agent channel and 2/ Its business scope has expanded to senior care and health management.

Key downside risks include: 1/ Failure to retain a number of agents with reduced agent productivity and 2/ Unfavourable market conditions in the A-share market and China’s corporate bond market.

CTIH (00966 HK): “Buy” on CTIH’s Life Insurance Outlook

Rating: Buy 6-18m TP: HK$33.80 Analyst: Dayton Wang Report Date: 2015-12-07

Summary

We value CTIH using a 2016F based Sum-of-the-parts (“SOTP”) approach by assigning an 8.3x NBV multiple on CTIH’s life insurance business and a fair P/B of 1.5x for CTIH’s domestic P&C insurance business. The assigned NBV multiple is derived with an assumed cost of equity of 10.21% and an assumed long-term growth rate in annual FYP of 3.0%.

Fine tuned our target price to HKD 33.80 per share, representing a 2016F P/EV multiple of 0.9x. Our target price is set by applying a valuation discount of 18.9% on the appraisal value of HKD 41.69 per share.

Key investment theses and upside risks include: 1/ Clear business strategy and focus to become a “boutique” insurance company in China, 2/ Better growth outlook in life insurance premium given lower proportion of renewal premiums and 3/ Possession of global vision as the Company is able to deliver insurance solutions in overseas markets.

Key downside risks include: 1/ Unfavourable market conditions in the A-share market and China’s corporate bond market and 2/ Overseas regulatory risks.

Chinese Translation 中文翻译

行业和公司焦点

中国优通 (06168 HK):与通号通信订立战略合作

分析员：黄家玮事件描述：中国优通(06168 HK)间接全资附属公司求实通信设备与通号通信(中国通号(03969 HK)全资附

属公司)订立战略合作框架协议。据此，求实与通号通信同意在智慧城市、信息化建设、建筑智能化、电

信运营商领域的通信建设及相关维护共同合作。

观点评论：基于通号通信的国资背景及强大的客户网络，求实与通号通信的战略合作将以透过加强其弱

电设备集成服务的技术支持及加强客户关系，提高公司的业务竞争能力。

投资建议：公司估值为17.1/13.6/10.8倍的2015/2016/2017年预期市盈率。公司于未来三年仍位于快速增

长期。维持“收集”评级及1.70港元的目标价。

Research Focus


最新报告

中国铁建 (01186 HK): 业务稳定并有大额的出售收益，维持“收集”

评级：收集 6-18m 目标价: HK$12.60 分析员：黄家玮报告日期: 2015-12-07

报告摘要

中铁建(01186 HK)2015 年 3 季度收入同比下降 0.1%至 1,501.55 亿元(人民币，下同)。纯利同比增 4.3%至 27.84 亿

元。业绩与预期一致。毛利率同比提高 0.8 个百分点至 11.0%。公司于 2015 年首 9 个月新签 5,563.98 亿元合同，同

比下降 1.5%。其中新签铁路合同 1,620.74 亿元，同比下降 15.2%。

新签订单增长率于 2015年第 2季度见 3年低位后急速反弹，于第 3季度增长率同比为 36.2%。物流与物资贸易是 2015年首半年的拖低业绩的主因。首半年物流与物资贸易从 2014 年首半年实现利润 2.0 亿元大跌至 2015 年首半年损失

5.09 亿元。我们预计该分部的差劲表现应会多持续两年。另外，分拆中铁建高新装备(“中铁建高装”)可为公司带来 13.75亿元的视为出售收益。

调低 2015-2017 年每股盈利预测 5.4%、9.1%及 8.4%至 0.946 元、0.949 元及 1.070 元。公司较同业中国中铁有 10%的折让、受惠于蓬勃发展的基建市场及建议分拆中国铁建高新装备是价格催化剂。调低其目标价至 12.60 港元，对应

11.1/11.0/9.8 倍 2015/2016/2017 年预期市盈率。维持“收集”评级。

彩生活 (01778 HK): 高速度增长的物业管理以及社区服务商，“收集”

评级：收集 6-18m 目标价: HK$7.10 分析员：刘斐凡/Noah Hudson 报告日期: 2015-12-07

报告摘要

截至 2015 年 6 月 30 日，彩生活的总合约管理建筑面积为 2.702 亿平方米，而且公司管理或者订立顾问服务合同的社

区达 1,700 个，相对 2014 年 12 月 31 日分别增长 31.6%和 34.4%。2012 年至 2014 年，总合约管理建筑面积复合年

增长率为 120.9%。业务包括 1）物业管理服务、2）工程服务以及 3）社区租赁、销售以及其他服务。标准化、集中

化以及自动化让公司有效地扩张到新的社区。

我们预期 2015 年至 2017 年每股净利年复合增长率为 40.5%。公司 2012 年至 2014 年净利润年复合增长率为 83.1%，

主要是因为总合约管理建筑面积扩张。公司 6 月 17 日收购中国最佳的物业服务商之一开元国际，将带动公司 2015 年

的净利润增长而且开元国际每年可保证最少带来人民币 30 百万元的净利润。

我们定彩生活投资评级为“收集”，目标价为 7.10 港元。我们的目标价较我们现金流折现法得出的每股估值 8.89 港

元有 20.2%的折让，也分别相当于 21.0 倍、15.3 倍和 12.7 倍的 2015 年、2016 年和 2017 年市盈率。

Research Focus


行业报告: 保险行业: 重现活力的寿险行业，“跑赢大市”

评级：跑赢大市 6-18m 目标价: n.a. 分析员：王庆鲁报告日期: 2015-12-07

报告摘要

我们对于中国保险行业近期前景维持乐观的观点，我们认为主要产品类型经历过定价利率改革后的中国寿险行业更具

活力。预期较好的 2015 年险资行业投资收益率和个人年金产品的日益流行将成为来年保费收入增长的基础。

由于预期 2016 年中国债券收益率仍呈下行趋势，我们预期非标资产占险资总投资资产的比例将进一步上升。但是，

我们认为偿付能力二代的实施将限制险资对于信托产品投资的增幅。

根据每股内含价值乘数分析，我们对于 2016 年行业的整体估值水平预期将低于 2011 年。我们 2016 年的行业首选为

中国平安（02318 HK，～目标价 58.80 港元，“买入”），主要原因是其良好的寿险保费收入增长品质。我们亦推

荐中国财险（02328 HK，～目标价 20.90 港元，“收集”）和中国太平（00966 HK，～目标价 33.80 港元，“买入”）。

主要的下行风险为：1/ 个险营销员队伍的突然收缩和产能超预期下降和 2/ 中国资本市场环境，特别是 A 股市场和中

国公司债券市场发生恶化。

中国人寿 (02628 HK): 预期 2015 年全年首年保费录得较快同比增长

评级：收集 6-18m 目标价: HK$34.30 分析员：王庆鲁报告日期: 2015-12-07

报告摘要

我们给予 10.5 倍的新业务价值乘数用于中国人寿 2016F 的估值。采用的估值乘数是包含了股本成本 10.19%和首年保

费长期增长 2.0%的假设。

小幅上调目标价至每股 34.30 港元，对应 1.3 倍的 2016F 每股内含价值乘数。我们所设定的目标价是基于每股 38.97港元的评估价值给予 12.0%的估值折让。

投资逻辑和股价上行因素主要包括：1/ 预期 2015 年全年首年保费增长良好，主要因为个险营销员团队的加强和 2/ 因近期 A 股市场趋于稳定，预期 2015 年公司内含价值增幅预期满意。

股价下行风险主要为：1/ 未能维持个险营销员团队的稳定和产能和 2/ 中国资本市场环境，特别是 A 股市场和中国公

司债券市场发生恶化。

中国平安 (02318 HK): 基于平安保险业务品质，维持“买入”评级

评级：买入 6-18m 目标价: HK$58.80 分析员：王庆鲁报告日期: 2015-12-07

报告摘要

我们对中国平安采取分部加总估值方法，给予寿险业务 10.9 倍的新业务价值乘数。采用的新业务价值乘数是包含了股

本成本 10.88%和首年保费长期增长 2.5%的假设。

上调目标价至每股 58.80 港元，对应 1.4 倍的 2016F 每股内含价值乘数。我们所设定的目标价是基于每股 72.26 港元

的评估价值给予 18.6%的估值折让。

投资逻辑和股价上行因素主要包括: 1/ 持续注重个险的寿险营销策略和 2/ 陆金所登陆资本市场后所带来的价值释放。

Research Focus


股价下行风险主要为：1/ 未能维持个险营销员团队的稳定和产能，2/ 中国资本市场环境，特别是 A 股市场和中国公

司债券市场发生恶化和 3/ 银行业务因贷款资产质量影响受到压制。

中国太保 (02601 HK): 对公司财产险业务的考量而维持“中性”

评级：中性 6-18m 目标价: HK$38.00 分析员：王庆鲁报告日期: 2015-12-07

报告摘要

我们对中国太保采取分部加总估值方法，给予寿险业务 8.8 倍的新业务价值乘数和财产险业务 1.3 倍的市净率。采用

新业务价值估值乘数是包含了股本成本 12.64%和首年保费长期增长 1.5%的假设。


投资逻辑和股价上行因素主要包括： 1/ 虽然我们预期 2016F 中国汽车销量增幅加速，公司寿险业务的质量依然要好

于财产险业务。

股价下行风险主要为：1/ 中国资本市场环境，特别是 A 股市场和中国公司债券市场发生恶化和 2/ 财产险承保利润率

是提升估值水平的重要因素。

人保集团 (01339 HK): 寿险营销策略正在改善


报告摘要

我们对人保集团采取分部加总估值方法，给予寿险业务 5.1 倍的新业务价值乘数以及财产险业务 2.1 倍的 2016F 市净

率。采用的新业务估值乘数是包含了股本成本 10.34%和首年保费长期增长 1.0%的假设。

小幅上调目标价至每股 5.30 港元，对应 1.4 倍的 2016F 市净率。我们所设定的目标价是基于每股 7.30 港元的评估价

值给予 27.5%的估值折让。

投资逻辑和股价上行因素主要包括：1/ 旗下拥有行业领先的财产险公司：中国财险并单独作为上市公司，2/ 人保寿

险决心改善营销策略并将更为重视个险渠道和 3/ 人保健康的先入优势将利于承保利润率的改善。

股价下行风险主要为：1/ 寿险：新业务利润率扩展出现困难和 2/ 中国资本市场环境，特别是 A 股市场和中国公司债

券市场发生恶化。

Research Focus


中国财险 (02328 HK): 在费率改革中期待车险综合成本率的改善


报告摘要

我们给予 2.6 倍市净率用于中国财险 2016F 的估值。采用的估值乘数是包含了股本成本 9.39%和长期增长 2.0%的假

设。

上调目标价至每股 20.90 港元，对应 2.1 倍的 2016F 市净率。我们所设定的目标价是基于每股 25.26 港元的评估价值

给予 17.3%的估值折让。

投资逻辑和股价上行因素主要包括： 1/ 车险行业的持续表现优异者，2/ 农业险承保利润率继续保持稳定和 3/ 天津

爆炸事故对于公司财务表现影响可能较为有限。

股价下行风险主要为：1/ 中国汽车市场环境不佳和 2/ 严重自然灾害所造成的超预期赔付。

新华保险 (01336 HK): 微调目标价至每股 45.20 港元，维持“收集”投资评级


报告摘要

我们给予 5.4 倍的新业务价值乘数用于新华保险 2016F 的估值。采用的估值乘数是包含了股本成本 10.10%和首年保

费长期增长 1.0%的假设。


投资逻辑和股价上行因素主要包括：1/ 公司较以往更加注重个险营销员渠道和 2/ 公司业务已经涉足养老和健康管理

产业。

股价下行风险主要为：1/ 未能维持个险营销员团队的稳定和产能和 2/ 中国资本市场环境，特别是 A 股市场和中国公

司债券市场发生恶化。

Research Focus


中国太平 (00966 HK): 看好公司寿险业务前景，上调至“买入”

评级：买入 6-18m 目标价: HK$33.80 分析员：王庆鲁报告日期: 2015-12-07

报告摘要

我们对中国太平采取分部加总估值方法，给予寿险业务 8.3 倍的新业务价值乘数和中国内地财产险业务 1.5 倍市净率。

采用的新业务价值乘数是包含了股本成本 10.21%和首年保费长期增长 3.0%的假设。

上调目标价至每股 33.80 港元，对应 0.9 倍的 2016F 每股内含价值乘数。我们所设定的目标价是基于每股 41.69 港元

的评估价值给予 18.9%的估值折让。

投资逻辑和股价上行因素主要包括：1/ 清晰的经营策略和专注成为中国“精品保险公司”，2/ 较佳的保费收入增长

前景，续期保费比例仍较低和 3/ 拥有全球视野，有能力在海外市场提供保险服务。

股价下行风险主要为：1/中国资本市场环境，特别是 A 股市场和中国公司债券市场发生恶化和 2/ 海外市场监管政策

风险。

Research Focus


Research Department 研究部

Grace Liu 刘谷 Head of Research, Market

Strategy, Petrochemicals主管，市场策略、石化

[email protected] (86755) 23976698 /(852) 25097516

Ray Zhao 赵睿 Conglomerate, E-commerce 综合、电子商务 [email protected] (86755) 23976755

Gary Wong 黄家玮 Environmental Protection,Infrastructure

环保、基建 [email protected] (852) 25092616

Leo Wu 吴逸超 Coal, Electricity 煤炭、电力 [email protected] (86755) 23976871

Noah Hudson Noah Hudson Consumer (Hotels), Gaming 消费（酒店）、博彩 [email protected] (86755) 23976684

Sunny Kwok 郭日升 Consumer (Food & Beverage,Household Products)

消费（食品饮料、日用品）

[email protected] (852) 25092642

Jason Song 宋然 Market Strategy 市场策略 [email protected] (852) 25097768

Shirley Gu 古乔艺 Market Strategy 市场策略 [email protected] (86755) 23976718

Square Chui 徐惠芳 Futures 期货 [email protected] (852) 25092629

Kevin Guo 郭勇 Raw Materials, Gas 原材料、燃气 [email protected] (86755) 23976671

Ricky Lai 黎柏坚 Telecommunications, Internet 电信、互联网 [email protected] (852) 25092603

Dayton Wang 王庆鲁 Insurance, Fixed-income 保险、债券 [email protected] (852) 25095347

Richard Cao 曹柱 Banking 银行 [email protected] (86755) 23976870

Jun Zhu 朱俊杰 Clean Energy, Electric Equipment 清洁能源、电力设备 [email protected] (852) 25097592

Ivan Zhou 周一帆 Shipping & Logistics, Ports 航运物流、港口 [email protected] (86755) 23976685

Andrew Song 宋涛 Consumer (Retailing),Home Appliances

消费（零售）、家电

[email protected] (852) 25095313

Van Liu 刘斐凡 Property 房地产 [email protected] (86755) 23976672

Sherry Li 李沁亦 Aviation,Automobiles & Components

航空、汽车 [email protected] (86755) 23976675

Sean Xiang 向宇豪 Machinery, Construction Materials 机械、建材 [email protected] (86755) 23976725

Terry Hong 洪学宇 Consumer (Apparel) 消费（服装） [email protected] (86755) 23976722

Johnny Wong 王俊浩 Research Assistant 研究助理 [email protected] (852) 25095348

Toliver Ma 马守彰 Research Assistant 研究助理 [email protected] (852) 25095317

Spencer Fan 范明 Research Assistant 研究助理 [email protected] (86755) 23976686

Barney Wu 吴宇扬 Research Assistant 研究助理 [email protected] (86755) 23976680

Gary Ching 程嘉伟 Research Assistant 研究助理 [email protected] (852) 25092665

Esabella Zhao 赵舒蔓 Research Assistant, Translator 研究助理、翻译员 [email protected] (86755) 23976681

Research Focus


Company Rating Definition The Benchmark: Hong Kong Hang Seng Index Time Horizon: 6 to 18 months

Rating Definition Buy Relative Performance >15%;

or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is favorable. Accumulate Relative Performance is 5% to 15%;

or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is favorable.

Neutral Relative Performance is -5% to 5%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is neutral.

Reduce Relative Performance is -5% to -15%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is unfavorable.

Sell Relative Performance <-15%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is unfavorable.

Sector Rating Definition The Benchmark: Hong Kong Hang Seng Index

Time Horizon: 6 to 18 months Rating Definition Outperform Relative Performance >5%;

or the fundamental outlook of the sector is favorable.

Neutral Relative Performance is -5% to 5%; or the fundamental outlook of the sector is neutral.

Underperform Relative Performance <-5%; or the fundamental outlook of the sector is unfavorable.

DISCLOSURE OF INTERESTS

(1) The Analysts and their associates do not serve as an officer of the issuer mentioned in this Research Report. (2) The Analysts and their associates do not have any financial interests in relation to the issuer mentioned in this Research Report. (3) Except for SMI Holdings Group Limited (00198), China Fire Safety Enterprise Group Limited (00445), Guangshen Railway

Company Limited-H shares (00525), China All Access (Holdings) Limited (00633), Guotai Junan International Holdings Limited (01788) and Binhai Investment Company Limited (02886), Guotai Junan and its group companies do not hold equal to or more than 1% of the market capitalization of the issuer mentioned in this Research Report.

(4) Guotai Junan and its group companies have had investment banking relationships with Powerlong Real Estate (01238) / Shanghai Electric- H shares (02727) / Huaneng Power- H shares (00902) / Anhui Conch Cement- H shares (00914) / Huishang Bank- H shares (03698) / Redco Properties (01622) / AviChina Industry & Technology- H shares (02357) / China U-Ton (06168) / Tianyun International (06836) / Shenzhen Investment (00604) / D&G Technology (01301) / CGN Meiya Power (01811) / China Aoyuan Property (03883) / Bosideng (03998) / Binhai Investment (02886) / Wasion Group (03393) / Jiangsu Expressway- H shares (00177) / China Singyes Solar Technologies (00750) / China Dredging Environment Protection (00871) / Chanjet Information Technology- H shares (01588) / CGN Power- H shares (01816) / China All Access (00633) / WH Group (00288) / China Wood Optimization (08099) / China Creative Home (01678) / Freetech Road Recycling Technology (06888) / China Shipping Container Lines- H shares (02866) / Huaneng Renewables- H shares (00958) mentioned in this Research Report within the preceding 12 months.

DISCLAIMER This Research Report does not constitute an invitation or offer to acquire, purchase or subscribe for securities by Guotai Junan Securities (Hong Kong) Limited ("Guotai Junan"). Guotai Junan and its group companies may do business that relates to companies covered in research reports, including investment banking, investment services and etc. (for example, the placing agent, lead manager, sponsor, underwriter or invest proprietarily). Any opinions expressed in this report may differ or be contrary to opinions or investment strategies expressed orally or in written form by sales persons, dealers and other professional executives of Guotai Junan group of companies. Any opinions expressed in this report may differ or be contrary to opinions or investment decisions made by the asset management and investment banking groups of Guotai Junan. Though best effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information and data contained in this Research Report, Guotai Junan does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the information and data herein. This Research Report may contain some forward-looking estimates and forecasts derived from the assumptions of the future political and economic conditions with inherently unpredictable and mutable situation, so uncertainty may contain. Investors should understand and comprehend the investment objectives and its related risks, and where necessary consult their own financial advisers prior to any investment decision. This Research Report is not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to applicable law or regulation or which would subject Guotai Junan and its group companies to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. © 2015 Guotai Junan Securities (Hong Kong) Limited. All Rights Reserved. 27/F., Low Block, Grand Millennium Plaza, 181 Queen’s Road Central, Hong Kong. Tel.: (852) 2509-9118 Fax: (852) 2509-7793 Website: www.gtja.com.hk

Research Focus


research department morning research focus...2015 full-year fyp hk$34.30 ↑ accumulate -- y...

Documents