research & forecast report fourth quarter 2016...

1Idaho Research & Forecast Market Report | Q4 2016 Year-End | Col l iers Internat ional

Research & Forecast ReportFourth Quarter 2016 | Year-EndCopyright © 2017 Colliers International Idaho


Submarkets

20

20

55

55

44

20

S P

leasa

nt V

alley

Rd

Eagle

Rd

36th

St

S Or

char

d St

Eagle

Rd

Chinden Blvd

W Victory Rd

Idaho St19th

St

Blac

k Cat

Rd

Can

Ada R

dCa

n Ad

a Rd

McD

erm

ott R

d

Ustick Rd

Victory Rd

King

s Rd

Roosevelt Ave

10th A

ve S

North

side

Blvd

22nd A

ve1st St S

11th Av

e

Garrity Blvd

Railroad St

Cirrus Dr

Midw

ay R

d

Homedale Rd

Midl

and

Blvd

Laster Ln

Mad

ison

Rd

11th

Ave

N

17th A

ve N9th St S

S In

diana

Ave

Deer Flat Rd Deer Flat Rd

Marble Front RdN

Kcid

RdLook

Rd

Farm

way

Rd

Ustick Rd

Farm

er R

d

S Federal Way

Capit

ol Blv

d

Broa

dway

Ave

Main St

Reserve St16

th St

3rd St

W Gowen Rd

Shaw Mountain Rd

Taft St

Chinden Blvd

Wag

ner R

d

Myrtle St

Myrtle St

8

9

10

11

12

13

19

1

2

3

4

5

14

16

17

18

Star

Rive

r Rd

7

State St6

15

Fort StFort St

McD

erm

ott R

d

Ada County Submarkets Canyon County Submarkets

1

2

3

4

Northwest

North End

Southwest

Airport

5

6

7

8

Central Bench

Downtown Boise

Downtown Peripheral

Garden City

9

10

11

12

Southeast

West Bench

Eagle

Meridian

13

14

15

16

Idaho Center

Northside

Downtown Nampa

South Nampa

17

18

19

Karcher

Middleton

Caldwell


BUSINESS DISTRICTS SEE RISING DEMAND & NEW CONSTRUCTION

OfficeValley wide we are still seeing high levels of positive absorption

Ada Canyon

Sout

h Na

mpa

7,5

95

Sout

hwes

t 12

,039

Nort

hsid

e Na

mpa

8,

545

Cald

wel

l 2

9,75

1

Idah

o Ce

nter

39

,474

Cent

ral B

ench

57

,682

Airport -5,170

Downtow

n Nampa -674

G.C./N. End/NW -44,301

Karc

her

14,3

86

Eagl

e 3

1,471

Wes

t Ben

ch

165,

629

Dow

ntow

n Bo

ise

319

,554

Mer

idia

n 3

6,90

2

Southeast -28,262

SUBMARKET ABSORPTIONYoY

VACANCY

ASKING RATE $

ABSORPTION

SUBMARKET ABSORPTIONCHANGE Q3-Q4

Airport (3,187)Central Bench (30,515)

Downtown 180,823 Eagle 21,665

Meridian (535)G.C. & N. End & N.W. (60,580)

Southeast Boise 2,760

Southwest Boise (12,346)West Bench 78,543

ADA CO. TOTAL 176,628

Downtown Nampa (12,952)Idaho Center 4,112

Karcher 29,442

Northside Nampa (158)

South Nampa -

Caldwell 4,819

CANYON CO. TOTAL 28,175

VALLEY TOTAL 204,803


VACANCY RATES

Q3 OFFICE TRENDS

» 364,000 square feet were added to the Downtown submarket total with the completion of the new Simplot Headquarters. They will occupy 351,000 square feet; the remaining 13,000 contributes to the increase in the submarket’s vacancy of over two percentage points. An additional 30,000 SF at Boise Plaza and 40,576 available SF at U.S. Bank Plaza also contributed to the increase in vacancy for Downtown.

» Vacancy in Southeast Boise will remain at a high percentage until the 68,000 square feet previously occupied by Simplot leases.

» The listing of Gem State Business Park and Lakeharbor caused a spike in vacancy and negative absorption for Northwest Boise.

» Class A office space is in steady demand, doing well in both Ada and Canyon Counties.

» With several sizable deals on the market, there is potential for larger vacancies to be quickly absorbed. There is some smaller spec construction in the outer submarkets but projects for the Downtown area are mostly build to suits.

» As larger projects in Downtown are finishing up, we hope to see an ease in labor costs for construction. This could change options for all realms of commercial real estate. New development may be seen in the coming year to accommodate growth across the Treasure Valley.

$1197

$1908

$1425

$2153

$1620

$1585

$1566

$1748$1327

$1840

$1269

$1153

$790

$1107

$1066

$1241

FULL SERVICEASKING RATES

Airport

Central Bench

Downtown

Eagle

Meridian

G.C. / N.End / NW

Southeast

Southwest

West Bench

Downtown Nampa

Idaho Center

Karcher

Northside Nampa

South Nampa

Caldwell

7.37%

14.21%

11.57%

9.04%

10.3%

16.66%

16.46%

12.67%

11.56%

3.32%

13.00%

5.03%

6.05%

5.92%

14.86%

Occupied Vacant

Airport

Central Bench

Downtown

Eagle

Meridian

G.C. / N.End / NW

Southeast

Southwest

West Bench

Downtown Nampa

Idaho Center

Karcher

Northside Nampa

South Nampa

Caldwell

7.37%

14.21%

11.57%

9.04%

10.3%

16.66%

16.46%

12.67%

11.56%

3.32%

13.00%

5.03%

6.05%

5.92%

14.86%

Occupied Vacant

Highlighting 20% out of 100%


MARKETFS AVERAGE

ASKING RATETOTAL SF IN SUBMARKET

TOTAL AVAILABLE SF VACANCY

YoY VACANCY CHANGE

ABSORPTION YoY

Airport $11.97 215,682 15,898 7.37% 2.40% (5,170)Central Bench $12.41 2,576,385 365,978 14.21% -2.24% 57,682

Downtown $21.53 6,958,522 805,432 11.57% 2.25% 319,554 Eagle $16.20 843,713 76,257 9.04% -3.73% 31,471

Meridian $15.85 3,225,255 332,189 10.30% -1.14% 36,902 G.C. & N. End & N.W. $14.25 807,158 134,485 16.66% 5.49% (44,301)

Southeast Boise $15.66 1,611,165 265,143 16.46% 1.75% (28,262)

Southwest Boise $17.48 1,041,867 131,957 12.67% -1.16% 12,039 West Bench $13.27 3,765,104 435,205 11.56% -4.40% 165,629

ADA COUNTY TOTAL $15.66 21,044,851 2,562,544 12.18% -0.43% 575,544

Downtown Nampa $10.66 588,571 19,552 3.32% 0.11% (674)Idaho Center $19.08 291,618 37,896 13.00% -13.54% 39,474

Karcher $12.69 344,403 17,330 5.03% -4.18% 14,386

Northside Nampa $7.90 196,919 11,916 6.05% -4.34% 8,545

South Nampa $11.53 471,853 27,930 5.92% -1.61% 7,595

Caldwell $11.07 500,116 74,302 14.86% -5.95% 29,751

CANYON COUNTY TOTAL $15.68 2,477,477 188,926 7.63% -4.12% 101,989

TREASURE VALLEY TOTAL $15.66 23,522,328 2,751,470 11.70% -0.82% 677,533

Office MARKET STATISTICS

Ada

Canyon


Retail

MID-BOX DECLINE CONTINUES TO ALTER LANDSCAPE

Idah

o Ce

nter

2,

309

Northwest -36,729 Central Bench -28,430

North End -2,326

Sout

hwes

t 4

65DT N

ampa

23

,508

Mer

idia

n

43,2

59

Southeast -23,425

West Bench -194,251

Eagl

e 2

6,66

5

Garden CIty -9,855

Karcher -15,986

South Nampa -32,628

Caldwell -24,816

DT Boise -3,722

SUBMARKET ABSORPTION YoY

Ada Canyon

VACANCY

ASKING RATE $

ABSORPTION

Live-work-play concepts are infiltrating the retail market and meeting the demand of consumers for experience driven and easy access retail. Ground-floor retail with office and/or residential above accommodates urban style consumerism. The Village in Meridian as well as The Afton and The Fowler downtown reflect the live-work-play concept.


TRENDS

» Online shopping continues to affect the retail sector of CRE, driving the decrease in mid-box and increase in experience driven retail. This theme is being termed “The Amazon Effect” and may demand more dynamic responses from retail users in the coming year. There may be potential for conversion opportunities of vacant mid-box locations.

» Class A retail space is still in demand and doing well valley-wide.

» There are active tenants in the Treasure Valley; the challenge is finding the right locations and affordable rates as inventory is decreasing. High costs impede new spec construction as an option for retail development. The rise in interest rates may have an adverse effect on retail in the coming year.

» New developments in the Downtown area, such as hotels, office buildings, residential projects, and the Boise Centre expansion, are keeping the retail demand high for DT and Periphery submarkets. Build to suit and other new developments are being proposed for outer submarkets, catching the demand spillover from the downtown core and bringing retail opportunities to newer residential areas.

» Eagle has a lot of development opportunities, build to suits, and pads available; only a certain number of these will be able to be built, else over building in that area may occur. High construction costs may temper development in this submarket.

$1358

$1448

$1204

$1324

$1829

$1551

$1527

$889

$1231

$1427

$1050

$1364

$1345

$1199

$1365

ASKING RATES

VACANCY RATES

Garden City

Downtown

Eagle

Meridian

Northwest

Southeast

Southwest

West Bench

Downtown Nampa

Idaho Center

Karcher

South Nampa

Caldwell

5.96%

6.28%

4.04%

8.35%

6.40%

9.93%

8.88%

5.39%

13.95%

0.73%

10.55%

4.77%

13.33%

9.66%

Occupied Vacant

Central Bench

North End

7.56%

Garden City

Downtown

Eagle

Meridian

Northwest

Southeast

Southwest

West Bench

Downtown Nampa

Idaho Center

Karcher

South Nampa

Caldwell

5.96%

6.28%

4.04%

8.35%

6.40%

9.93%

8.88%

5.39%

13.95%

0.73%

10.55%

4.77%

13.33%

9.66%

Occupied Vacant

Central Bench

North End

7.56%



MARKETNNN AVERAGE

ASKING RATETOTAL SF IN SUBMARKET

TOTAL AVAILABLE SF VACANCY

YoY VACANCY CHANGE

YoY ABSORPTION

Central Bench $13.24 1,477,031 111,694 7.56% 1.92% (28,430)

Downtown Boise $18.29 1,669,238 99,502 5.96% 0.46% (3,722)

Eagle $15.51 946,026 59,368 6.28% -2.17% 26,665

Meridian $15.27 3,584,685 144,987 4.04% -1.21% 43,259

Garden City $8.89 752,910 62,863 8.35% 1.31% (9,855)

Northwest Boise $12.31 800,804 79,495 9.93% 4.59% (36,729)

Northend $11.99 179,980 11,525 6.40% 1.43% (2,326)

Southeast Boise $13.65 1,243,070 110,419 8.88% 2.26% (23,425)

Southwest Boise $13.64 1,724,473 92,991 5.39% -0.03% 465

West Bench $14.27 2,990,700 417,213 13.95% 6.50% (194,251)

Ada County Total $13.65 15,368,917 1,190,057 7.74% 1.58% (228,349)

Downtown Nampa $14.48 823,928 6,028 0.73% -2.85% 23,508

Idaho Center $13.58 1,322,811 139,496 10.55% -0.17% 2,309

Karcher $13.45 2,662,981 126,915 4.77% 0.60% (15,986)

South Nampa $12.04 716,417 95,507 13.33% 4.55% (32,628)

Caldwell $10.50 972,450 93,984 9.66% 2.55% (24,816)

Canyon County Total $13.06 6,964,999 480,116 6.89% 0.94% (65,799)

TREASURE VALLEY $13.65 22,333,916 1,670,173 7.48% 1.39% (294,148)

RetailMARKET STATISTICS

Ada

Canyon



VACANCY SQUEEZED EVEN TIGHTER

VACANCY

ASKING RATE $

Ada Canyon

ABSORPTION

IndustrialVacancy continues to get lower with 671,241 SFof positive absorption in the last year. There was no significant change in vacancy from last quarter, but a significant increase in asking rate YoY.

Sout

heas

t 6

8,55

7

North

side

Nam

pa 5

6,21

1

Sout

hwes

t 8

6,27

4

Sout

h Na

mpa

51

,356

Caldwell -39,524

Airp

ort

37,9

00

Idah

o Ce

nter

18

,142

Downtow

n Boise -2,900

Mer

idia

n 2

27,7

53

Cent

ral B

ench

19

5

Downtow

n Nampa -67,377

G.C./N. End/NW -32,812

Karcher -1,200

Eagl

e 5

70

Wes

t Ben

ch

268,

096

SUBMARKET ABSORPTION YoY

2.33%

2.39%

2.35%TOTAL VACANCY


VACANCY RATES

TRENDS » Karcher has the lowest submarket vacancy rate at 0.19%, a slight decrease

from last quarter but not a significant change from the end of last year.

» Nampa continues to be a strong draw for industrial users with its accessibility and lower rental rates. Vacancy will drop drastically when the former Union Seed Building leases. Its 70,000 available SF are keeping Downtown Nampa’s vacancy rate just above 15%.

» 5 out of 15 submarkets have vacancy rates below 1%, with 13 out of 15 below 5%.

» With the continued rise in rental rates and positive absorption across the valley, industrial space is becoming quite scarce. This may prompt new spec construction to accommodate the growth in local businesses as well as new companies moving into the Treasure Valley. Though construction costs continue to be an issue, the demand for industrial space may initiate a push for more spec construction.

» 16,200 SF of the Downtown Periphery leased, causing a 2% decrease in vacancy in that submarket.

$0.67

$0.58South Nampa |

$0.67

$0.58

$0.45

$0.61$0.45

$0.69

$0.47

$0.39

$0.41

$0.60

$0.64

$0.47

ASKING RATES

Airport

Central Bench

Downtown

Eagle

Meridian

G.C. / N.End / NW

Southeast

Southwest

West Bench

Downtown Nampa

Idaho Center

Karcher

Northside Nampa

South Nampa

Caldwell

7.15%

2.65%

1.17%

0.70%

1.69%

2.71%

0.65%

4.85%

0.59%

15.58%

1.13%

0.19%

3.41%

0.37%

1.66%

Occupied Vacant

Airport

Central Bench

Downtown

Eagle

Meridian

G.C. / N.End / NW

Southeast

Southwest

West Bench

Downtown Nampa

Idaho Center

Karcher

Northside Nampa

South Nampa

Caldwell

7.15%

2.65%

1.17%

0.70%

1.69%

2.71%

0.65%

4.85%

0.59%

15.58%

1.13%

0.19%

3.41%

0.37%

1.66%

Occupied Vacant


LISTING CHANGES » NEW LISTING: Airport

Distribution Center 22,826 SF

» NEW LISTING: Gowen Business Center 9,960 SF

» NEW LISTING: Phillippi St. Warehouse 11,995 SF

» NEW LISTING: 15,000 SF warehouse on N. Steelhead Way in West Bench

» NO LONGER AVAILABLE: Southeast Boise: 36,000 SF listing on Amity


SUBMARKETS TOTAL SFAVAILABLE

SQUARE FEET Q4 VACANCYVACANCY

CHANGE YoYABSORPTION

YoYAVG. NNN

ASKING RATECHANGE IN AVG.

ASKING RATE YoY

Airport 4,302,092 307,390 7.15% -0.88% 37,900 $0.47 $0.03

Central Bench 2,645,085 70,202 2.65% -0.01% 195 $0.64 $0.08

Downtown Boise 1,000,748 11,733 1.17% 0.38% (2,900) $0.67 $0.17

Eagle 351,896 2,450 0.70% -0.16% 570 $0.69 $(0.15)

Meridian 4,102,439 69,298 1.69% -5.55% 227,753 $0.61 -

G.C. / N.End / NW 2,191,634 59,365 2.71% 1.50% (32,812) $0.67 $0.15

Southeast 5,904,914 38,320 0.65% -1.16% 68,557 $0.58 $0.15

Southwest 1,941,561 94,107 4.85% -4.44% 86,274 $0.63 $0.05

West Bench 7,459,815 43,648 0.59% -3.59% 268,096 $0.60 $0.11

ADA COUNTY TOTAL 29,900,184 696,513 2.33% -2.19% 653,633 $0.58 $0.03

Downtown Nampa 470,293 73,277 15.58% 14.33% (67,377) $0.41 $0.16

Idaho Center 2,040,907 23,040 1.13% -0.89% 18,142 $0.39 $(0.09)

Karcher 2,051,079 3,976 0.19% 0.06% (1,200) $0.47 $0.02

Northside Nampa 6,051,775 206,500 3.41% -0.93% 56,211 $0.45 -

South Nampa 817,751 3,000 0.37% -6.28% 51,356 $0.58 $0.07

Caldwell 4,951,252 82,184 1.66% 0.80% (39,524) $0.45 $(0.03)

CANYON COUNTY TOTAL 16,383,057 391,977 2.39% -0.11% 17,608 $0.55 $0.11

TREASURE VALLEY 46,283,241 1,088,490 2.35% -1.45% 671,241 $0.58 $0.07

IndustrialMARKET STATISTICS

Ada

Canyon


George Iliff, Managing Owner

INVESTMENT BROKERAGE SERVICESClay Anderson, MBA, CPALew GoldmanLew Manglos, MBA, CCIM, SIOR

OFFICE BROKERAGE SERVICESJamie AndersonScott FeighnerScott Raeber, MBA, CCIMSteve Winger

RETAIL BROKERAGE SERVICESBrook BlakesleeDavid CadwellMike ChristensenMallisa Jackson

INDUSTRIAL BROKERAGE SERVICESSteve FosterDevin Ogden, CCIMJake Tucker

LAND BROKERAGE SERVICESJimmy RoumanisJohn Starr

CANYON COUNTY BROKERAGE SERVICESLincoln HagoodBryant JonesMike Peña

PROPERTY MANAGEMENTLisa CochranPatty GordonKelly SchneblyJustin Vogel

MARKET CONTACT:

Melanie NielsenDirector of Marketing & PR | Boise+1 208 472 [email protected]

Aubrielle HollyResearch Coordinator | Boise+1 208 472 [email protected]

Copyright © 2016 Colliers International. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable. While every reasonable effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot guarantee it. No responsibility is assumed for any inaccuracies. Readers are encouraged to consult their professional advisors prior to acting on any of the material contained in this report.

Revenue

$2.5B(US$)

Managing

2.0BComprised of

16,000

Lease/ sale transactions

80,000Transaction value

$112B(US$)

Established in

66countries

*Includes a�liates

professionals (square feet)

Colliers International | Idaho 755 W. Front Street, Suite 300 Boise, Idaho | +1 208 345 9000

Graphics by Sara Smart

research & forecast report fourth quarter 2016...

Documents