An agency of the Government of Ontario

Research in Support of PSE Public Policy in Ontario

Presentation to CUPA

June 23 2009

HEQCO’s Mandate • Provide an annual evaluation of the performance of the PSE

sector • Annual review and research plan

• Drawing on the evaluation, identify and explore policy options • Generally in annual review and research plan

• Make policy recommendations to Minister and Ministry • HEQCO initiated, based on research work plan • At Minister’s request• In both cases, communication and public release protocol in place

Topic for today

• Highlight work on PSE participation and attainment • Policy objective is that the province meets its

projected human capital needs• Compete and prosper in a global, information economy• Significant non-economic returns to PSE• Address accessibility for under-represented groups

• Two steps• Look at the current stock of human capital • Look at prospects for adding to this stock

THE CURRENT STOCK OF HUMAN CAPITAL

Metrics and Targets

• Suggested Metrics • Ideally, all reported educational attainment including multiple

credentials • But census data restricted to highest level of educational attainment

• Suggested Targets1. First among provinces in PSE attainment2. PSE attainment rates equal to those in leading OECD countries

• For discussion• Target aggregate PSE attainment or distinguish among credentials? • If latter, how to choose individual targets?

Ontario’s aggregate PSE attainment reflects that in ROC, although the mix differs

Highest educational attainment, population aged 20-64, Ontario/ROC, 2006 Census

Less t

han high

school

High sc

hool

Total

PSE

Trades

certificat

e

Regist

ered ap

prentices

hip

Total

College

or CEG

EP

College

(3m-1yr)

College

(1yr-

2yrs)

College

(2yrs

+)

Universi

ty cer

t. or d

ip. belo

w bachelo

r

Total

universi

ty (bach

elor's

and ab

ove)

Bachelo

r (inclu

ding LL.B

.)

Universi

ty cer

t. or d

ip. above

bachelo

r

Master

Medicin

e

Earn

ed docto

rate

0.00

1.00

• University and non-university attainment for main OECD countries, percentage of population aged 25-64, 2006

Canada appears to lead OECD nations in aggregate PSE attainment, due mainly to a large lead in non-university

credentials

Australi

a

Austria

Belgium

Canad

a

Denmark

Finlan

dFra

nce

German

y

Greece

Hungary

Icelan

d

Irelan

dIta

lyJap

anKorea

Luxe

mbourg

Mexico

Netherl

ands

New Ze

aland

Norway

Slova

k Rep

ublicSp

ain

Swed

en

Switz

erlan

d

United Kingd

om

United St

ates

OECD av

erage

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2324

Tertiary-type B education (Non-university) Tertiary-type A education (University)

But there are problems with international comparisons

• Composition of non-university sector varies among nations

• Improvements in comparability expected shortly

A significant portion of Ontario’s human capital is imported

Origin of Postsecondary Education Credentials, Population Aged 25-64, 2006 Census, (Percentage)

ON BC NL PEI NS NB PQ MB SK AB0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Own Province Other Province Outside Canada

Source: Statistics Canada 2006 Census Table 97-560-XWE2006024.

Which is significant since it poses different policy challenges

• Issues with credential recognition and upgrading • Very early mining of disaggregated data from the

2006 census points to anomalies in links between PSE attainment and labour market outcomes for immigrants

ADDING TO THE CURRENT STOCK OF HUMAN CAPITAL

Metrics and Targets for Participation

• Suggested metrics• Apprenticeship, college and university participation rates• Graduation rates

• Suggested targets 1. Participation and completion rates at least equal to those in leading

provinces 2. Rates equal to those in OECD nations 3. Completion rates equal to the estimated number of new jobs in next decade

requiring PSE

• For discussion• Target aggregate PSE participation rates, or distinguish among sectors and

expected credentials? • If latter, how to choose individual targets?

First target: Ontario’s college and university participation rates compare favourably to those in other provinces

Canada NL PEI NS NB PQ ON MB SK AB BC0

5

10

15

20

25

30

College University

College and university participation rates for population aged 20-24, Canada and the provinces, 2006

Second target: International comparisons

• Unable to judge as same issues of comparability

Third target: compare completion rates to predicted labour market needs

• Consensus for Canada is that two-thirds to three-quarters of new jobs created in next decade (2006-2016) will require PSE

• Often suggested that Ontario must increase its PSE participation rate• Florida and Martin• Toronto Star

But this interpretation is unduly pessimistic

• It is a fact that 40% of Ontarians aged 20-24 were registered in college or university in 2006 (Labour Force Survey) • Commonly cited participation statistic

• But it is also a fact that 40% of Ontarians aged 20-24 in 2006 had already graduated from an apprenticeship program, college or university (Census)• Apprenticeship 3.8%• College 18.2%• University 18.4%

• Might be led to conclude from these numbers that the eventual PSE attainment rate of Ontarians aged 20-24 in 2006 will be 80%

• But have to allow for • Double counting• Drop outs

The eventual PSE attainment for the 20-24 cohort will be at least equal to that for the 25-34 cohort

• Can assume Ontarians aged 25-34 have largely completed PSE

• Over two-thirds of this older cohort report some form of PSE• Apprenticeship 6.0%• College 24.3%• University 37.2%

• Will be higher for younger cohort as participation rates rising over time

YITS-B data suggest that PSE attainment rate for Ontario is over 70%

Ontarians aged 18-20 as of Dec, 1999

aged 24-26 as of Dec, 2005

Attended PSE

83%

Never attended PSE

17%

University

51%

College

40%

Other PSE

9%

Drop Out

14%

Source: Shaienks and Gluszynski (Nov, 2007) Statistics Canada 81-595-MIE2007059

Graduates

61%

Graduate Continuers

14%

Continuers

11%

Graduates and still in school

86%

Potential final PSE attainment rate for Ontario population

aged 24-26 as of Dec. 2005

71.4% (83% X 86%)

Thus we can bracket probable attainment rates for cohort aged 20-24

• Not lower than 67% • At least as high as attainment rates for Ontarians aged 25-34

• Below 80%• 80% figure ignores double counting and probable drop outs

• YITS number (71.4%) within this range • Possible upward bias due to falling report rates

In sum• Ontario’s aggregate human capital stock compares favourably to those in

other provinces• Thanks in significant measure to immigration

• Meaningful international comparisons or PSE attainment are not possible• The rate at which Ontario is adding to its aggregate capital stock compares

favourably to rates in other provinces • As with PSE attainment, meaningful international comparisons of

participation rates are not possible • Probable PSE attainment rates for the 20-24 cohort appear in line with

projected labour market requirements• These observations apply to aggregate PSE attainment levels and

participation rates; no attention to sector and program mix

But significant challenges remain (for system and hence for HEQCO)

• Unique challenges to increasing participation and graduation rates of traditionally under-represented groups

• Ensuring adequate and sustainable funding• Dealing with capacity constraints, particularly in GTA• Balancing undergraduate accessibility with graduate

expansion and research expectations • Aligning with anticipated knowledge and skill requirements • Determining appropriate college-university interaction• Ensuring effective accountability

• MAINTAINING AND ENHANCING QUALITY!

Thank you