research on risk management for climate change impacts in …€¦ · 11-12-2013 ·...
TRANSCRIPT
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Yinlong XU (许 吟隆)
Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in
Agriculture, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS)
Beijing, China
Tel: +86 10 8210 9766; e-mail: [email protected]
11 Dec., 2013
Research on Risk Management for Climate Change
Impacts in China
IGES-ERI Policy Research Workshop
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Outline
3
Research progress on CC impacts
Research progress on policy-making
Future Work
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Outline
3
Research progress on CC impacts
Climate scenarios employed
Scientific understanding:
----from impacts to risk assessment
Research progress on policy-making
Future Work
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Climate Scenarios Employed
3
Before 8th 5-year: incremental scenarios
8th 5-year (1991-1995): 2×CO2-1×CO2,
GCM+WG
9th 5-year (1996-2000): IS92, GCM+WG
10th 5-year (2001-2005): SRES, GCM+PRECIS
11th 5-year (2006-2010): SRES,
PRECIS+RegCM, etc
12th 5-year (2011~): SRES+RCPs,
PRECIS+RegCM, etc
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An introduction to downscaling
GCMs
Horizontal
resolution:
~250-600 km
Impacts Models
Downscaling
Local
details
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What is PRECIS?
PRECIS—Providing REgional Climates
for Impacts Studies
A regional modelling system developed at
the Hadley Centre
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Purpose of PRECIS
To develop high-resolution regional climate
scenarios
To provide climate data for impacts
assessment model
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A demo for RCM downscaling
HadAM3P
PRECIS
A demo for RCM downscaling
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Downscaling with RCM
GCM Lateral Boundary
Initial Conditions
RCM
Other Forcings
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The climate change
scenarios in China are developed
based on SRES socio-economic
assumptions
SRES: IPCC 2000, Special Report on Emission
Scenarios
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Terrain of PRECIS
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PRECIS Interface
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RCM: HadRM3(from Hadley Centre)
Horizontal resolution:
50km*50km
and 25km*25km
Temporal resolution
daily and hourly
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Previous
Resolution: ~50km*50km
Grids: 145*112
Current Domain:
Resolution: ~50km*50km
Grids: 219*183
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ECMWF re-analysis data: 1957-2001
ECMWF re-analysis data: 1979-1993
ECMWF re-analysis data: 1989-2008
HadAM3
– Baseline (1961-1990): No1 No2 No3
– A2 (2071-2100): No1 No2 No3
– B2 (2071-2100) : No1
HadCM3
– A1B (1961-2099): No1
– A1B (1961-2099): No1 No2 No3 No4
ECHAM5
– A1B (1961-2100): No1
CMIP5
– RCP2.6 (1951-2100): No1
– RCP4.5 (1951-2100) : No1
– RCP8.5 (1951-2100) : No1
PR
EC
IS’ jo
bs
for C
hin
a
Red: ready
Blue: to be run
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Climate
change
responses
under SRES
A2 scenario in
2080s relative
to baseline
(1961-1990)
Temperature precipitation
Annual Annual
Winter Winter
Summer Summer
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Temperature responses in China
under SRES B2 scenario
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Precipitation responses in China
under SRES B2 scenario
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Drought over Yangtze River
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Extreme Climate Events Criteria-1
Criteria Definition
SU daily maximum temperature is over 25 ℃
CFD the largest number of consecutive days with
daily minimum temperature below 0 ℃
GSL
number of days between the first occurrence
of at least 6 consecutive days with daily
mean temperature above 5 ℃ and the first
occurrence after 1st July of at least 6
consecutive days with daily mean
temperature below 5 ℃
R20mm
extreme precipitation events with daily
precipitation amounts greater than or equal
to 20 mm
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Extreme Climate Events Criteria-2
Criteria Definition
RX5day maximum precipitation amount for the 5-day
interval
SDII
ratio of the daily precipitation amount for wet days
(daily precipitation amounts greater than or equal
to 1 mm) to the number of wet day
CDD
Consecutive dry days is calculated base on the
largest number consecutive days with daily
precipitation below 1mm
TX95
put daily maximum temperature of one year in a
increase order, then TX95 is defined as the 95
percentage of the maximum temperature of this
year
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a. SU
b. CFD
c. GSL
d. R20mm
e. RX5day
f. SDII
(Unit: %)
Changes of Extreme Climate Events
2071-2100 vs 1961-1990, SRES A2
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a. SU
b. CFD
c. GSL
d. R20mm
e. RX5day
f. SDII
(Unit: %)
Changes of Extreme Climate Events
2071-2100 vs 1961-1990, SRES B2
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Warm night
The mean value of minimum temperature for 3 consecutive days’ warmest
nights over China under A2 Scenario(Unit:℃)a. Observed (CN05, 1961-
1990);b. Simulated by PRECIS (1961-1990);c. Relative changes of 2080s to
baseline
Changes in 500 hPa mean height field in
summer over China under future climate
scenario simulated by PRECIS(Unit:gpm)
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Outline
3
Research progress on CC impacts
Climate scenarios employed
Scientific understanding:
----from impacts to risk assessment
Research progress on policy-making
Future Work
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Impacts Assessments of Climate Change
on Chinese Agriculture
HadCM2 ECHAM4
Monthly T, P
Weather Generator
Daily Tmax/min, Pre, Srad
Crop Varities
Soil Data
Management Data
Crop Models
Yield Changes;
etc
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Impacts Assessments of Climate Change
on Chinese Agriculture
Weather Generator ==>RCM
Daily Tmax/min, Pre, Srad
Crop Varities
Soil Data
Management Data
Crop models
Yield Changes,
etc
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How to use future climate change scenarios data
Observation
Baseline Future scenarios
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No CO2 fertilization
2080s
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2080s
CO2 fertilization
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2080s
No CO2 fertilization
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2080s
CO2 fertilization
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Changes of runoff in China
The drought would be enhanced
along the Yellow River
While the potential flooding risk
along the Yangtze River would
increase under SRES A2 scenario
A2与基准年
B2与基准年
Similar to A2 scenario, but amplitude
is not so large as A2 scenario
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From average change to
extremesimpacts
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Extreme events have extreme impacts
on natural ecosystems in China
The impacts of extreme events on natural ecosystems in China
under B2 scenario
The impacts of extreme events on natural ecosystems in China
under A2 scenario
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Risk assessment of Climate Change
Impacts
V= f ( exposure, sensitivity, adaptive capacity )
To combine the social factors and climate
change
Risk= Hazard × Vulnerability
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ACCC Risk assessment on Maize
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ACCC Risk Assessment on Wheat
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ACCC Risk Assessment on Rice
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Outline
3
Research progress on CC impacts
Climate scenarios employed
Scientific understanding:
----from impacts to risk assessment
Research progress on policy-making
Future Work
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General feature of adaptation
policy-making:
From Autonomous Response to
Risk Management
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1st Stage: Response Based on
Observation Facts
Features of the 1st Stage:
Autonomous
Not Systematic
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2nd Stage: Response Based on
Impacts Assessment
Features of the 2st Stage:
Positive
Systematic, but the adaptation
measures is still isolated from
impacts assessments
Lack of Risk Assessment
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3nd Stage: Response Based on
Risk Assessment
Features of the 3st Stage:
Risk assessment
Integration with poverty
alleviation, disaster reduction, &
mitigation, etc
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China’s INC on
CC (2004) Studies on National Strategy
of CC Adaptation (2011) National Assessment Report
on CC (2007)
Adaptation Progress in China
National Climate
Program on CC
2013
National Adaptation
Strategy on CC
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Structure of the Adaptation Strategy Report
1、Introduction
2、Guideline, Demands and Aims
3、Sectors’ Challenges and Action Plans
4、Regional Challenges and Action Plans
5、National Synthesis Tasks and Action Plans
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Agriculture
Water Resources
Forestry
Coastal Zone
Human Health
Eco-systems and biodiversity
Major projects
Energy
Other sectors
Sectors’ Challenges and Action Plan
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3.10 Other sectors
Urban development
The second & tertiary industries
Environmental protection
Infrastructure & social lives
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9 Regions:
Northeast China
North China Plain
East China
Central China
South China
Northwest China
Southwest China
Qinghai-Tibet Plateau
China Sea
Regional challenges and action plan
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Main tasks
Action plan
Capacity Building
Policy
National Synthesis Tasks and Action Plan
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Challenges of Chinese Agriculture to
Climate Change
Threatening food security;
Enhancing the agro-meteorological disasters;
Getting hard to control the agricultural diseases, pests and
weeds;
Degrading the grassland and instablizing the animal
husbandry;
Exacerbating the poverty in rural and ecologically
vulnerable regions.
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Challenges
Main Tasks
Action Plans
Impacts-based Adaptation Planning
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Challenges of Chinese Agriculture to
Climate Change
Threatening food security;
Enhancing the agro-meteorological disasters;
Getting hard to control the agricultural diseases, pests and
weeds;
Degrading the grassland and instablizing the animal
husbandry;
Exacerbating the poverty in rural and ecologically
vulnerable regions.
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Main tasks of Chinese agriculture to adapt
to climate change
Enhancing the construction of agricultural infrastructures;
Accelerating agricultural industrialization and
modernization;
Strengthening water conservancy facility and developing
water-saving agriculture;
Adjusting cropping systems and crop varieties layout;
Developing adaptation techniques for animal husbandry;
Establishing the early-warning systems for agricultural
disasters and improving agricultural disasters insurance;
Completing the adaptation technology check-list.
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Action plan of agricultural adaptation Based on the challenges to climate change and major tasks to
adapt to climate change, we proposed the action plan towards the
year 2020, including:
1. basic farmland construction
2. water saving project
3. agricultural infrastructure construction
4. constructing the gene pool and seed bank
5. adjusting the cropping system
6. monitoring, predicting and controlling the agro-
meteorological disasters
7. developing the adaptation technique checklist
8. building the demonstration zone for adaptation
9. preventing the grassland degradation
10. forage resourcing and planning
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GHGs
emissions
Climate
change Impacts
assessments
Vulnerability
analysis
Risk
analysis Adaptation
strategy
√ ×
Shortcomings for Present Adaptation Strategy
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Outline
3
Research progress on CC impacts
Climate scenarios employed
Scientific understanding:
----from impacts to risk assessment
Research progress on policy-making
Future Work
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Future Work----
To have more risk assessments
To enhance integration
To issue the technical guideline to
support the implementation of
NAS
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