research proposal 30.12 -...
TRANSCRIPT
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Tel Aviv University Department of Political Science
CHANGE IN THE WELFARE SOCIETY:
IMMIGRATION AND THE NEW RADICAL RIGHT IN FOUR WELFARE STATES
Approved research proposal
December 2011
Edan Raviv
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1 Introduction
In September 2010, an anti-immigrant, right-wing Swedish political party, the Sweden
Democrats, won 20 parliamentary seats in the general elections and came close to becoming a
key member of the next government coalition. What’s more, not three months later, an Iraqi-born
Swedish citizen detonated himself amidst Christmas shoppers in Stockholm in an attempted
suicide bombing. Long considered the quintessential model of social welfare and tolerance, it is
surprising that a wave of extremism would lay such a firm stake in perhaps the most socially
progressive Western nation-state.
Upon closer inspection, however, similar trends have been seen in several other European states
typically associated with the welfare state and its commitment to liberal socioeconomic policies.
Indeed if one glances at a list of the top Western welfare states, they are highly associated with
the rise of New Radical Right (NRR) parties: France, Germany, and Norway have been
incubators for the NRR for almost thirty years; Denmark and the Netherlands recently witnessed
an increased saliency in nativist politics; and of course Belgium has for years dealt with
nationalist tensions, nearly to the point of disintegration.
These developments pose an interesting paradox to both academics’ and practitioners’
understanding of the modern welfare state. In all of the cases mentioned above, the rise of the
NRR ostentatiously point to a clear instance of nativist reaction to an influx in foreign
immigrants. At the same time, the question begs to be asked, why have societies with such strong
welfare systems been particularly unable to cope politically with increased ethnic diversity? Is
there something inherent in the welfare system itself which exacerbates a nation’s ability, or
willingness, to absorb foreigners?
As a result, this proposed dissertation will treat the welfare state as an institutionally constructed,
independent variable, and seek to clarify its causal role in the rise of the New Radical Right (the
dependent variable) as a result of increased immigration (the intervening variable) in socially
progressive and democratic Western states.
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2 Literature Review
The explanatory literature on the rise of the New Radical Right (NRR) in Western Europe can be
generalized into two families of research: firstly, “demand side” explanations focus on the nature
of those who ultimately decide on whether an NRR party succeeds or fails in democratic
elections: the voter. These include the structural, socioeconomic conditions and the cultural
ideologies of a given nation. Secondly, “supply side” explanations focus on the national and
international institutions that have allowed NRR parties to enter and succeed in mass politics.
2.1 Demand Side Explanations
2.1.1 Voter Preferences
Demand-side scholars argue that it is primarily voters’ preferences that have determined the rise
of the NRR. Whatever the institutional context, so the argument goes, European electorates are
simply gravitating towards the perceived policy outcome that best represents their new
preferences positions (Van Der Brug et al. 2000;Macdonald et al. 2001). Kitschelt (1995),
however, offers that NRR voters are not necessarily more extreme in their views than their
mainstream counterparts; while Rydgren (2010) explains that the failure of the Sweden
Democrats to enter the government is in fact due to voter contempt for their ideological roots.
Voter-centric scholars further explain that support for NRR represents a cultural reaction to
immigration, often consolidated by a general realignment of traditional issue cleavages among
voters. The culturalist argument, however, shows mixed results (Semyonov et al. 2006; Oesch
2008; Rydgren 2010; Kriesiet al. 1995, 2006, 2008; Kitschelt 2004).
Lack of faith in a system or party perceived to be mired with incapacity, patronage, clientelism,
or corruption has also been shown to create voter demand for the NRR (Kitschelt 1995; Abedi
2002; Bergh 2004; Lubbers and Scheepers 2000; Mudde and Van Holsteyn 2000; Veugelers and
Magnan 2005; Rydgren 2005, 2010; Bartolini and Mair 1990; Tavits 2007). So too is it argued
that unstable levels of partisanship allow for the entry of new parties; though the exact opposite
could be logically argued for the same reason (Mair and Biezen 2001).
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2.1.2 Economics and the Political Economy of the Welfare State
An increasing number of scholars explain the salience of NRR as a result of structural economic
changes, such as increasing market and labor competition in an age of globalization (Kriesi et al.
2006, 2008), national economic growth, changing business cycles (Lewis-Beck and Stegmaier
2000; Hug 2001), increasing inequality (Milligan 2010), level of education (Hainmeuller and
Hiscox 2007), and even gender (Givens 2004).However, these claims are challenged by
intervening institutional and socio-cultural qualifications (Tavits 2007; Sniderman et al. 2004;
Oesch 2008; Knigge 1998; Koopmans et al. 2005). Furthermore, not only has the NRR been able
to garner support by both winners and losers of the macroeconomy, its success is said to in fact
hinge on its ability to overshadow the economy with the cultural cleavage (Norris 2005;
Ivarsflaten 2005).
A common reasoning for the inadequacy of economic explanations is that structural conditions
today are so similar across Western Europe that they cannot explain variation in NRR
performance (Van Der Brug et al. 2005). Furthermore, it is also argued that migrants, when
evaluating potential destinations, look not at those host countries’ economic performances per se
but rather at the welfare benefits granted by the state (Bailey 2005). As a result, one might not
look merely at the structural conditions of NRR voters, but as to whether the state has (or has
not) been able to mediate the increased burden brought on by globalization.
Starting with Kitschelt (1995), the rise of NRR parties has been explained as a political
manifestation of “welfare chauvinism,” or the perception by an ethnic “in-group” that a scarcity
in employment, housing, and healthcare benefits has resulted from the increased demands of an
“out-group” (see also Veugelers and Magnan 2005; Zaslov 2004; Rydgren 2003).
A stronger welfare state, however, should intuitively neutralize these claims, by cushioning
natives against the negative socioeconomic costs of globalization. Indeed Crepaz (2008) has led
the advocacy of a nearly divine role for the welfare state in quelling social conflict. Strong
European welfare states such as those in Scandinavia, he argues, are showing increasing trust –
both for the welfare state itself and towards new external risks such as immigration (see also
Crepaz and Damron 2009; Kumlin and Rothsetin 2005; Bonoli 2007;Arzheimer 2009; Swank
and Betz 2003). As we have seen, however, the increasing gravitation of European polities –
particularly of those embedded in universal institutions – towards the nativist political agenda of
the NRR belie these conclusions, and beg for further investigation.
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2.2 Supply Side Explanations
2.2.1 Elite Politics and Issue Politicization
A first supply side explanation points to the power of the politician to mobilize voters, through
individual charisma (Lubbers et al. 2000), the mass media, and framing techniques (Chong and
Druckman 2007; Bale 2003; Green-Pedersen and Krogstrup 2008; Ivarsflaten 2008; Rydgren
2010; Herda 2010).
Mendelberg (2001), Boomgarden and Vliegenthart (2009), and Valentino et al. (2002) further
explain that symbolic cues embedded in political advertisements prime anti-immigrant attitudes
which voters then recall at the ballot, though Brader et al. (2008) stipulate that this effect
depends on the audience’s predisposition to those cues (i.e. not all immigrant groups pose the
same perceived threats to all host nations). Others point to the role of mere rumors in inciting
ethnic antagonism (Bhaynani et al. 2009).
However it is often difficult to disentangle charisma and success, since unsuccessful candidates
are assumed to be uncharismatic simply because they lost (Koopmans and Muis 2009). And
although Pappas (2008) and Hopkins (2010) require politicians to capitalize on “discursive
opportunities” such as sudden demographic change or anti-establishment protest votes, this only
submits the individual politician to the actual preferences of a national polity.
2.2.2 National Political Institutions
Weldon (2006) points to the variation in states’ citizenship regimes as a predictor of that nation’s
tolerance – defined politically as the support for liberal democratic rights and liberties, and
socially as the acceptability of differing content that find expression in those rights and liberties.
Natives in regimes which emphasize a “collective-ethnic” prerequisite for citizenship (Germany,
Austria, Belgium)exhibit low levels of tolerance; France and Denmark, who also emphasize the
collective nature of nationhood – but reject ethnicity as an element thereof – show low social
tolerance but high political tolerance; and “individualistic-civic” regimes such as the Netherlands
and Sweden show high tolerance of both types. Sniderman and Hagendoorn (2007), however,
argue that Dutch multiculturalism in fact bread widespread intolerance between natives and
immigrants – in both directions.
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NRR success has also been shown to be dependent on a state’s electoral system, particularly
considering the fact that the NRR (and other small parties) seem to flourish in Europe because of
that continent’s favorability towards proportional representative systems (Arzheimer and Carter
2006; Swank and Betz 2003).An equal number of studies, however, find either little (Carter
2002) or even an inverse relationship (Golder 2003; Veugelers and Magnan 2005) between such
electoral systems and the success of the NRR.
Others find that the success of NRR parties is much more based on their ability to capitalize on
the spatial convergence (or polarization) of traditional mainstream parties (Kitschelt 1995; Abedi
2002; Bale 2003; Norris (2005), followed by a cost-benefit calculation of the probability of
success (Cox 1997; Hug 2001; Tavits 2007). These explanations, however, are generally based
on the nascent democracies of Eastern Europe, while their neighbors to the West are treated as a
counterfactual, since over time both opportunity structures and calculations become predictable
and stable (Tavits 2005).
2.2.3 The International System
Students of international relations suggest that the electoral success of the NRR represents a local
reaction to a global phenomenon: cross-border immigration (Rydgren 2008; Mayer and
Perrineau 2006; Lubbers and Scheeprs 2000; Lubbers et al. 2000; van der Brug and Fennema
2003; van der Brug et al. 2000; Ivarsflaten 2008). Quintelier and Dejaeghere (2008), however,
counter that increasing European integration conditions its citizenry otherwise.
Alexseev (2006) brings in concepts from international relations theory to explain European
“immigration phobia”: just as anarchy engenders a security dilemma among states in the
traditional sense, so too is a state’s capacity to control the flow of immigrants – whom are
perceived to bring unpredictable change to and resistance with a host society – believed to be
under threat. In practice, however, Western states with common institutional foundations portray
highly variable policies to absorbing immigrants (Weldon 2006).
Rydgren (2005) and Kriesi et al. (1995) point not to the structure of the international system, but
to a cascading effect of diffusion starting with the success of the French Front National in 1984,
which effectively replaced the former European “frame” of right-wing parties. Kayser (2009)
and Hellwig (2001) similarly show that the electoral fortunes of the political right in one country
will spill over to another, especially when those neighbors share similar political economic
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conditions. But then again, maybe we should actually appreciate the West’s generally nonviolent
expression of ethnic intolerance? After all, Olzak (2006) argues that globalization has in fact
only reinforced the West’s commitment to social protest through legal, democratic means (see
also Pappas 2008, who distinguishes between “radical” and “revolutionary” parties).
As we have seen, the literature on the rise of the New Radical Right (NRR) in Western Europe
provides a diverse toolbox of investigative frameworks. However, recent empirical developments
– which all too often appear in the literature as qualifications, outliers or anomalies – belie a
satisfying explanation for the rise and success of the NRR in modern European welfare societies.
This study, however, presupposes a more fundamental flaw in the literature than mere empirical
validity. Most studies of the NRR are, methodologically, more preoccupied with describing the
constant conjunction of an endless list of multilevel symptoms which ostensibly appear alongside
the NRR, rather than searching for the underlying causal mechanisms which bind some of these
conditions together and actually explain the puzzling political change which an increasing
number of Western European polities are experiencing. Thus scholars tend to treat demand and
supply side variables, macro- and micro-level data, as independent of one another, while their
studies are based on temporally static, multi-national foundations (Mudde 2007). Causal depth is
sacrificed for theoretical simplicity.
3 Research Argument
3.1 The Approach: Scientific Realism and Polanyi's Theory of Transformation
With an emphasis on causal explanation, the research argument detailed below will originate
from a post-positivist, realist philosophy of science. To be a “causal realist” is to adopt a
scientific approach founded upon two propositions which deal with our conception of reality and
accumulation of knowledge of it: “realism about entities” and “realism about theories,”
respectively (Wendt and Shapiro 1997). To be a realist “about entities” is to accept that reality is
stratified. In the first place, scientific realists accept that reality exists independent of the human
mind and takes the form of observable entities, which can be captured by the senses. Unlike
positivists, however, realists go one step further in claiming that the entities that we observe are
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but symptoms of the relationship between underlying, unobservable causal mechanisms (Elster
2007; Bhaskar 1978; Lane 1996; Churchland 1979).
How then can one know of this stratification of reality if one cannot observe half of it (and the
more important half, at that)? For scientific realists, the answer lies in their “realism about
theories” (Harré 1985; Hooker 1985). Once we know the observable effects of reality, we can
theorize about its unobservable causal mechanisms. These hypotheses can then be subject to
empirical verification which, once verified, can be used as a basis for hypothesizing about deeper
causal mechanisms, and so on.
Two important implications of these ontological and epistemological assumptions arise for the
purposes of explanation and confirmation. Firstly, explanation should be viewed as an ongoing
yet progressive tug-of-war between empirical observation and theoretical modeling, one that
differentiates between symptoms and causes, and one that rejects the positivist commitment to
“covering model” explanations at the expense of causal depth (Miller 1987). In regards to
confirmation, the scientist is to abandon the “deductivist” approach to confirmation – whether of
the logical positivist or Popperian falsification varieties – in favor of “fair causal comparison”
with rival hypotheses, based on agreed background principles (ibid).
3.2 The Role of Societal Interest in Explaining the Rise of the New Radical Right
Karl Polanyi’s study of The Great Transformation (1944) represents a social theory remarkably
in line with this post-positivist commitment to causality and its ontological, explanatory, and
confirmatory elements (for overviews, see also Block 2003; Burawoy 2003). Polanyi offers an
explicit alternative to social history than that presupposed by the covering laws of economic
determinism espoused by both classical liberalism and orthodox Marxism. For Polanyi, it is not
social relations which are embedded in and determined by the laws of the market; rather it is
society’s historically dynamic human institutions which both created the market in the first place
and which determined the political reactions of the “great transformation.” Thus, the pre-WWI
global capitalist market which developed so massively – whether in its dependency on “haute
finance,” international commerce, or the new organization of labor – were not determined by
Economic Man’s universal predisposition for utilitarianism, but rather the social creation of a
new set of rules.
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Similarly, the common national protectionist reactions should not be explained, as both Marxists
and liberals would have us believe, by the predisposed material interests of particular classes
competing in a zero-sum game, but rather as a societal reaction to the institutional threat brought
on by this newly created market society. Particularly, Polanyi shows that it was not the economic
symptoms of the market around which the different sections of society mobilized, but rather the
attempted commodification of society’s basic institutions (labor, land, and money). Thus while
the content of the public debate on protectionism took the form of various group interests – after
all, different members of society were affected by the same external challenges in different ways,
particularly as they relate to the three “fictitious commodities” – it was society’s ability to
overcome these differences as one voice which determined the success of change.
That Polanyi’s theory of social transformation represents a decisive post-positivist alternative to
the historical materialism of both liberalism and Marxism is important. However, it is in its
theoretical relevancy to our empirical puzzle which also deserves discussion. Recall that the
source of change for Polanyi’s study was not the market per se, but the threat of
commodification it brought to society as a whole. Thus society’s (perhaps intuitive) response
sought to counter the market’s predisposition to sell these human institutions as commodities on
the open market, or to “decommodify” the market society. In this way, Polanyi provides perhaps
the most important explanation of the institutional birth of the modern welfare state.
Still, Polanyi was himself but an observer of the institutional facts of his time, and thus
concerned with the legacies of feudalism, mercantilism, and industrialization, on the one hand,
and the revolutionary calls for fascism and socialism, on the other. The Western Europe of today
has survived the death of fascism, communism, and market liberalism, and has been immersed
for some time in highly developed welfare institutions, while facing new challenges of economic
integration through democratic mechanisms of change. Thus, although Polanyi’s theoretical
skeleton is highly capable to explain institutional change we must adapt the empirical objects of
investigation to reflect today’s reality.
In the first place, while Polanyi was concerned with the evolving “market society” of the time,
Europeans today are increasingly embedded in varying degrees of a “welfare society,” under
which there is a constant tug-and-pull between the integrative forces of globalization and
national identity. And while the nature of society is complex, at least one important variable of
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globalization is overwhelming Europe: the increasing presence of foreign-born populations in
historically homogenous societies.
Secondly, like Polanyi’s emphasis on the institutional (rather than material) threat to society
brought on by the market, we assume here that changes in mere population numbers cannot by
themselves determine the conscious political changes of European electorates towards the NRR.
Instead, immigration should be interpreted as a vehicle, carrying with it an adverse threat to the
fundamental institutions of a society, and the place of the veteran (i.e. native and past immigrant)
population in it. As begun with Polanyi, the main institutional outcome of the great
transformation’s “double movement” – and the primary source of societal interest today – is that
of the welfare state.
There is of course nothing novel in the theoretical link between immigration and welfare. Indeed
both the theoretical and empirical investigation of “welfare chauvinism” – an ethnic in-group’s
desire for preferential welfare treatment over an ethnic out-group – is the object of increasing
scholarly attention. At the same time, these investigations more often than not treat the welfare
state as an exogenous index of decommodification scores, undetermined by politically
constructed institutions. This of course runs contrary to Polanyi’s institutional explanation of
societal change, but can be rectified if we treat the welfare state as an institutional construct.
Thirdly, while Polanyi recognizes that the ignition and substance of change is dictated by social
interests, the final realization of change is formalized by a political agent who successfully
frames a societal interest. For Polanyi, societal interest was defined by the collective negotiation
and action of different social classes who were united under the umbrella of trade unions and
other organizations. In the current study, it is the “populist” political alternative offered by the
NRR. Generally speaking, populism is an agenda that frames various social interests under the
“general will” of the native population and against two particular types of out-groups: firstly, the
immigrants whom are effectively “re-commodifying” society’s basic (welfare) institutions; and
secondly, the disenchanted political elite, whose failing political constructs are viewed as
favoring foreigners over natives.
Finally, a word on the vehicle of political change: while Polanyi was concerned with the
revolutionary alternatives that faced society in the early 20th century, the observed increase in
cross-national support for the NRR today should be viewed through the lens of democratic
elections.
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3.3 Research Hypothesis
The research hypothesis to be forwarded in this study is that certain types of welfare systems (the
independent variable), in particular universal systems, under conditions of increased immigration
(the intervening variable), galvanizes a native chauvinistic group into political action and
increases the popular support for the New Radical Right (the dependent variable).
3.4 Nominal Definitions
Dependent Variable: The Popular Support for the NRR
An implicit “minimum definition” of the NRR’s core ideology can be found in the work of Cas
Mudde (2000; 2007), which will here be termed nativist populism. In this study nativist populism
represents a political ideology that advocates, firstly, a more favorable economic institutional
arrangement – whether through the market or the state’s welfare system – for a native society
over an ethnic out-group. Secondly, as mentioned above nativist populists assert that it is the
responsibility of government to at least not obstruct this distribution, if not to actively promote it;
in other words, change must be made by the replacement of the current, disenchanted political
elite within a democratic system of representation.
Independent Variable: Welfare Institutions
Beginning with Esping-Andersen (1990), students of social policy are taught to unpack the
welfare state into its various institutional designs in order to understand not only which programs
fall under the welfare state’s jurisdiction, but also who is entitled to its benefits (not to mention
how much). In addition, it is important to account for the fact that these designs are consciously
constructed by political agents, ostensibly to serve society’s interests (see also Kumlin and
Rothstein 2005, Kumlin 2002; Rothstein and Stolle 2003).
As a result, a welfare institution will be defined according to the three “worlds” of welfare
systems offered by Esping-Andersen: “liberal” systems rely on a strong role for the market in the
production of welfare, with a minimal state role (if any) in the provision of means-tested
benefits; “corporatist” systems lean heavily on programs that, while offering comprehensive state
sponsored benefits, preserve social differences by publicly identifying group specific needs; and
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“universal” systems provide benefits based on universal rights and access, with a minimal role
for the market.
Intervening Variable: Immigration
Critics of the immigration argument have shown that traditional measures of ethnic diversity are
indeterminate of the success of the NRR (Mudde 2007). However, the literature on
multiculturalism highlights that society’s very definition of an immigrant (or any “other” group
for that matter) is institutionally constructed. After all, the mere quantity of an ethnic minority is
irrelevant to a host group if the differences between the two are not (institutionally) recognizable
(see Crepaz 2008; Banting and Kymlicka 2003; Brubaker 2001; Entzinger 2003; Joppke and
Morawska 2003; Bruecker et al. 2002; Weldon 2006).
Perhaps the most important classification of citizenship rights comes from T.H. Marshall (1950),
who orders the historical development – and hence importance in blurring group differences – of
such “national” rights as progressing from civil to political to social. Marshall’s account,
however, was written at the birth of social rights; since then, modern Europe seems to have
switched the latter two in the order (Guiraudon 1998). Thus it is common practice for Western
states to immediately grant foreign-born residents civil rights and social welfare support, while
maintaining differences by the lack of political rights.
Thus henceforth an immigrant will be defined as an adult individual who is physically present
within the territoryof a state, but is not entitled to full political rights.
3.5 The Hypothesis’ Rationale
Immigration can thus be thought of as representing a “second coming” of the market’s attempt to
commodify humans. The more the market (i.e. immigration) is allowed to organize labor – a
fictitious commodity – and the less the state restricts the market, the greater is the hypothesized
support for NRRs. Thus liberal societies that rely primarily on the market for welfare production
never internalized a societal countermovement to the great transformation as Polanyi describes it;
in these systems welfare is mostly provided by non-state actors and social institutions such as
employers and trade unions, which are often structured to benefit the veteran population. Thus,
under conditions of high immigration these societies are hypothesized not to exhibit
overwhelming support for NRR political parties.
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In contrast, societies whose systems were designed specifically to promote national solidarity
through universally accessible and equitable benefits, have internalized welfare as a primary
societal interest, one that falls under the responsibility of the state to uphold. At the same time,
the universal makeup of these systems accommodates immigrants much more significantly,
instead of the selective (in effect) discrimination that immigrants suffer under liberal systems.
Thus, under conditions of high immigration universal systems are hypothesized to yield strong
support for the agenda of institutional change offered by the NRR.
Corporatist systems represent an intermediate case. On the one hand, welfare programs are
intentionally designed to define societal interest vis-à-vis the state – which provides fertile
ground for the NRR’s populist agenda. On the other hand, by relying on group specific
definitions of eligibility, corporatist programs can either favor or neglect veteran groups,
depending both on their institutional design as well as the particular demographic and
socioeconomic characteristics of immigrants. Thus support for the NRR across corporatist
systems should show the most variation out of the three systems.
4 Research Design
4.1 Operational Definitions
Dependent Variable: Popular Support for the NRR
Parties will be identified as NRR according to the issues that are most salient in their manifestos,
and their positions on these issues, especially immigration, welfare institutions, and government
performance (i.e. populism) – relative both to other political issues and to non-NRR parties.
Assuming that the main goal of NRR supporters is to influence state policy, it is important to
measure, firstly, their representation in legislative and executive bodies that have access to
society’s institutions. The dependent variable will therefore be gauged by the number of seats
that the NRR received in relevant local, regional, and national assemblies, as well as by the
number of votes received (i.e. this variable is of a ratio level of measurement) and the ratings of
NRR in public opinion polls.
In cases where an executive has institutional influence and is elected independently of an
assembly (at the local, regional or national level), the share of votes received by an NRR
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candidate will be measured. In bicameral parliamentary systems, the share of seats received by
NRR parties in both houses is relevant. In both cases, the results of individual voting districts
will be accounted for.
Independent Variable: Welfare Institutions
The independent variable will be measured according to a nominal classification of the three
types of welfare systems. Indeed, beginning with Esping-Andersen (1990) welfare systems have
been shown to cluster according to a weighted index of each system’s commitment to liberalism,
corporatism, and universalism. However, such indexes are based almost exclusively on measures
of welfare benefits; the institutional significance which welfare systems hold for societal interest
is neglected. As a result, the following alternative institutional criteria will be analyzed:
1. Relative depth of benefits: Since the end of the Second World War all three welfare
systems have shown a strong inclination by the state to provide basic income security in
the form of pension, sickness, and unemployment benefits. However, one thing that
separates the corporatist and universal systems from their liberal counterpart is the
former’s added provision of resources such as health, housing, and education. Thus the
depth of welfare benefits – the average financial value of benefits among eligible
individuals – that the state is legally obligated to provide will be measured. A similar
measure will be taken for welfare provided by non-state institutions, with the relative
depth being calculated as the ratio of the two. Universal and corporatist systems both
show a high ratio, while liberal systems show a low ratio.
2. Eligibility rights, as specified in a state’s laws, determine who is entitled to public
benefits for any given program. Universal systems enumerate the same eligibility scheme
for, potentially, an entire population – irrespective of demographic, socioeconomic, or
legal status. In contrast, corporatist systems customize welfare programs for different
status groups. Finally, liberal systems only provide means-tested relief for the poor
(typically, under both corporatist and liberal welfare systems benefits are available only
to lawful residents).
3. Welfare systems developed as a result of distinct institutional cultures, identified by
their historical roots in political thought and organizational evolution. Liberal systems
were institutionalized by classical liberals who, on the one hand, realized the potential
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calamities of the self-regulating market, but nevertheless introduced programs of “last
resort” because of their standing commitment to individualism, equal opportunity, and
free competition. Corporatist systems were forwarded by reformists seeking to preserve
the paternalistic authority of feudal society and/or the associationalism of the guild
system. Universal systems emerged in predominantly rural societies where socialist
movements espousing broad class unity successfully navigated newly instituted
democratic systems of representation.
Intervening Variable: Immigration
As with the dependent variable, immigration will be operationalized nationally and locally,
accounting for both the share of non-political citizens (legal and illegal) in each geopolitical
unit’s total population, as well as changes in the flows of immigrants over time.
4.2 Description of the Dataset
The spatial scope of this study encompasses six countries, which were selected to maximize
sample balance while minimizing selection bias: Denmark, Sweden, France, Italy, Switzerland,
and the United Kingdom. As will be shown, Denmark and Sweden embody the universal welfare
state, and while the success of the NRR is seen in both on a national scale, the temporal
occurrences have been equally varied: the former has witnessed NRR parties since the 1970s –
beginning with the Progress Party and today in the Danish People’s Party – while the Sweden
Democrats have only very recently emerged. France and Italy are better classified by the
corporatist regime, but have also witnessed varying degrees of NRR success. The National Front
in France has been around nationally for a number of decades, with significant variation in its
success over time, while the Lega Nord in Italy has witnessed consistent success, but on a
regional scale only. Finally, the United Kingdom (at least after 1979) and Switzerland fall under
the liberal system; but while the British National Party has held a marginal role in national
politics, the Swiss People’s Party is one of the largest political parties in that country’s
parliamentary history.
The temporal scope of the study encompasses 1960 to 2010 which, firstly, considers the
empirical variation of the NRR in these cases. By allowing for true fluctuations in NRR success
– not to mention changes in welfare institutions and immigration flows – the study will also
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consider when and why NRR parties experience failure (or at least stagnancy). Finally, the time
period is sizeable enough to allow for sufficient comparative and time-series analysis from a
historical institutional perspective.
4.3 Sources of Data
Dependent Variable
1. NRR identification will be drawn from the Comparative Manifesto Project, which codes
policy programs of political parties.
2. NRR success in elections will be provided by national election studies, as well as the
Comparative Study of Electoral Systems (CSES) and other cross-national surveys.
3. Public opinion on immigration, welfare institutions, government performance, and
political ideology will be drawn from national surveys as well as the following
multinational surveys:
a. The World Values Survey, with data available since 1980.
b. The European Social Survey (ESS), with data available since 2002.
c. The Eurobarometer (EB), with data available since the early 1990s.
d. The International Social Survey Program (ISSP), which provides, in addition to
its permanent questionnaire, two relevant rotating modules: the “National
Identity” module and the “Role of Government” module.
Independent Variable
Welfare institutions will be tapped in state laws and non-state institutional regulations.
Where possible, primary sources will be utilized, but because of language limitations, the
study will also rely on secondary literature and translated material.
Intervening Variable
1. International migration data will be taken from national censuses, Eurostat, the Cross-
National Data Center in Luxemburg (LIS), and the Organization for Economic
Cooperation and Development (OECD).
2. Citizenship policies: the author is not aware of any authoritative or comprehensive
measurement system of national citizenship definitions, although a few authors do offer
17
starting points (Banting and Kymlicka 2003; Lahav 2004; Weldon 2006). For lack of a
definitive scale, the citizenship laws of each case study will need to be tapped and
verified.
4.4 Tests and Expected Results
In order to show that it is highly unlikely that the research hypothesis is wrong (“reject the null
hypothesis”), the study will analyze the institutional and statistical data outlined above from a
qualitative perspective. The test will progress in two steps: first, “within-case” historical analysis
will be utilized to identify the mechanisms linking the independent and intervening variables to
the dependent variable; second, the results of individual cases will be evaluated through cross-
case comparisons (for an overview of qualitative methods see Mahoney 2007; Bennett and
Elman 2006). The tests and results may be formally presented and validated by Boolean analysis,
as codified in Ragin’s (1987) qualitative comparative analysis.
Following empirical analysis of each case and comparative analysis of the sample of cases, the
null hypothesized will be rejected in the following instances:
1. In universal systems, if (a) immigration is high, (b) support levels for NRR parties are
high, and (c) NRR support and immigration are shown to be positively and strongly
related.
2. In corporatist systems, if (a) the institutional welfare burden of immigration is high, (b)
support levels for NRR parties are high, and (c) NRR support and immigration are shown
to be positively and strongly related.
3. In liberal systems, if (a) the institutional welfare burden of immigrants is low, (b)
support levels for NRR are relatively low, and (c) NRR support and immigration are
shown to be unrelated.
In addition to considering each operational definition of the independent variable, the analysis
will consider alternative explanatory variables prevalent in the literature. Specifically, it will be
shown that it is highly unlikely that the type of electoral system shifts in party strategy and
political rhetoric, and cyclical changes in the national and global economies refute the research
hypothesis. This will be done by comparing variation in these variables over time and place with
variation in welfare institutions and NRR success, in similar fashion to the way in which
18
immigration is considered when the null hypothesis is refuted. For example, one can suspect that
NRR succeed under difficult economic times. Thus, in universal and corporatist systems the
possibility that the relationship between welfare institutions and NRR success is spurious will be
ruled out if (when compared with the same analysis in countries with other welfare systems): (a)
the economy is booming, (b) support levels for NRR parties are high, and (c) NRR support and
immigration are shown to be positively and strongly related.
Although it is this study’s goal to provide a comprehensive explanatory model for the success
and failure of the New Radical Right in welfare society, the ambiguity of both causal direction
and intervening mechanisms between the variables should be recognized. For instance, it is
possible (and indeed has been shown by others) that welfare institutions may shape immigration,
if the immigrants “shop” for destinations with generous welfare benefits. But immigrants have
other motives too: they may search for destinations that would allow them to prosper without
welfare benefits, such as high-growth economies or destinations with an existing family or social
network they can tap into, or simply seek a more secure political environment. In addition,
whether or not welfare institutions shape immigration does not void the effect of immigration on
veteran societal interest.
Similarly, it is difficult to differentiate whether the hypothesized core ideology of the NRR is
determined by the public, or vice versa. Perhaps welfare populist sentiment is created from the
top-down, through manipulation of the media and other mechanisms? In the best worse-case
scenario, is it in fact the political elite or intelligencia whom observe the objective changes
sweeping through welfare society, and thereby direct public attitudes?
Nevertheless, the employment of a qualitative research methodology allows the social scientist to
engage in active dialogue between ideas and observations. It must thus be emphasized that the
investigation of the model presented above may very well uncover complementary (or even
supplementary) intervening variables and causal mechanisms in the course of research.
19
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