research report: davy on food and beveragesresearch report: davy on food and beverages september...

September 18th, 2012

Research Report: Sector update

Davy on Food and Beverages

Sector performance and valuation update; technical analysis of stocks under coverage

www.davy.ie Bloomberg: DAVY<GO> Research: +353 1 6148997 Institutional Equity Sales: +353 1 6792816 Davy Research

John O'Reilly john.o'[email protected] / +353 1 6148915

Jack Gorman [email protected] / +353 1 6148926

Aiden O' Donnell [email protected] / +353 1 6724211

Barry Gallagher [email protected] / +353 1 6149194

A week of underperformance

• Food and beverage sectors underperformed in the European and US markets over the past week as sector rotation emerged.• In Europe, both sectors fell 2.4% in the week, behind a 1.1%

gain in the FTSE E300 Index. • Year-to-date, beverages remain one of the best-performing

European sectors (+26.9%), well ahead of the wider market (+11.8%). Food producers are +6.4% year-to-date. • In the US, the S&P 500 rose by 2.2% on the week, but

beverages were down 0.6% and food products were broadly flat (-0.2%). • Year-to-date, beverages (+8.8%) and food products (+3.8%)

are underperforming the overall market (+16.8%). Technically speaking…

• In this week's commentary, we analyse our coverage universe from a technical perspective for absolute and relative long/shorts. • Origin Enterprises (upside potential) and Givaudan (downside

potential) look particularly interesting on a technical basis. Focus on Associated British Foods and Heineken; forthcoming newsflow

• In this week's stock focus pages, we examine Associated British Foods and Heineken. • Full-year results from Origin Enterprises (September 19th) and

ARYZTA (September 24th) will be monitored closely in coming weeks.

Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report.

J&E Davy, trading as Davy is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland. Davy is a member of the Irish Stock Exchange, the London Stock Exchange and Euronext. For business in the UK, Davy is authorised by the Central Bank of Ireland and subject to limited regulation by the Financial Services Authority. Details about the extent of our regulation by the Financial Services Authority are available from us on request. All prices are as of close of business September 14th unless otherwise indicated. All authors are Research Analysts unless otherwise stated. For the attention of US clients of Davy Securities, this third-party research report has been produced by our affiliate, J&E Davy.

Table of contents

Technical analysis of stocks under coverage 2

Stock focus: Associated British Foods and Heineken 23

Sector review 25

Company analysis 32

Important disclosures 56

Ratings

ARYZTA Outperform 14/06/2010 Previously Neutral 30/06/2009 Associated British Foods Outperform 05/07/2011 Previously Neutral 03/11/2010 Britvic Neutral 25/02/2011 Previously Outperform 27/09/2010 C&C Outperform 30/06/2009 Carlsberg Neutral 06/01/2010 Previously Outperform 30/06/2009 Continental Farmers Group Outperform 05/08/2011 CSM Neutral 29/04/2011 Previously Outperform 01/09/2010 Diageo Outperform 11/01/2010 Donegal Creameries Outperform 17/09/2010 Previously Underperform 30/06/2009 Frutarom Outperform 21/06/2012 Fyffes Outperform 27/01/2011 Previously Neutral 18/02/2010 Givaudan Neutral 21/06/2012 Glanbia Outperform 11/05/2010 Greencore Group Neutral 11/02/2010 Previously Underperform 30/06/2009 Heineken Underperform 08/06/2010 Previously Neutral 14/08/2009 Kerry Group Outperform 30/06/2009 Naturex Neutral 21/06/2012 Origin Enterprises Outperform 30/06/2009 Pernod Ricard Outperform 22/03/2011 Previously Neutral 27/04/2010 Robertet Neutral 21/06/2012 Südzucker Outperform 15/02/2010 Symrise Outperform 21/06/2012 Tate & Lyle Neutral 04/04/2011 Previously Underperfrom 13/08/2010 Total Produce Outperform 14/05/2010 Previously Neutral 30/06/2009

For full details of current and previous ratings see www.davy.ie/ratings

Research Report: Davy on Food and Beverages September 18th, 2012

2 Davy Research

Technical analysis of stocks under coverage In the following pages we review the stocks under our coverage from a technical analysis perspective. We examine the names in both absolute terms and relative to the Euro Stoxx 600 Food & Beverage sector. The food and beverage sector has been an excellent performer over the past five years and has outperformed the broader market by 170% since the end of 2007 when the first signs of the financial crisis appeared. There have been a few periods in which the sector underperformed, but most of these were short-lived. History has taught us that sectors come in and out of vogue at various points in time; for now, however, the food and beverage sector remains in an uptrend and it is hard to place large bets against it outperforming further in the medium term. In absolute terms, the names that look most interesting (note that our commentary is based purely on technicals and therefore the view may differ from our fundamental rating) are the following: Long: ARYZTA, Origin Enterprises, Fyffes Short: CSM, Carlsberg, Tate & Lyle Relative to the sector, the most interesting stocks are the following: Long: Associated British Foods, Diageo, Glanbia Short: CSM, Givaudan, Heineken Two charts in the following pages stand out as being most interesting. Origin Enterprises has in recent weeks taken out the vitally important

€4 level. This has been a significant resistance level in the past, and this move is one that should be followed. The stock may begin a charge towards its all-time high above €5.

The relative chart of Givaudan is particularly worrying. It has broken through some very significant support levels – usually a signal that further underperformance lies ahead. There could be as much as 20% more underperformance before another support level is reached.


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Figure 2: Stoxx 600 Food & Beverage sector relative to the Stoxx 600 Index Daily .SX3P, .STOXX 15/08/2006 - 07/01/2013 (PAR)

RelPrf, .SX3P, LAST TRADE(Last), .STOXX, LAST TRADE(Last), First Date Loaded13/09/2012, 1.61

ValueEUR

.12

0.85

0.9

0.95

1

1.05

1.1

1.15

1.2

1.25

1.3

1.35

1.4

1.45

1.5

1.55

1.6

1.65

S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 [Delayed]

Source: Reuters

Figure 1: Stoxx 600 Food & Beverage sector Weekly .SX3P 28/01/1996 - 04/11/2012 (PAR)

PriceEUR

.12

160

200

240

280

320

360

400

445.37

418.21

363.04

439.82

ValueEUR

.123

3050.06

ValueEUR

.12

13.9614.41

ValueEUR.12

258.069M

ValueEUR

13.9614.41

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20121990 2000 2010 [Delayed]

Source: Reuters

Food & Beverage remains an excellent performer on a year-to-date basis. It has spiked hard in recent weeks and now the current move looks over-extended. Downside will not be significant, but we expect better entry points than the current price.

After a very sharp move higher earlier in the year, the current period of underperformance is hardly a surprise – there is probably another couple of percent to go.


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Figure 4: ARYZTA relative to the Stoxx 600 Food & Beverage Index Weekly ARYN.S, .SX3P 24/02/2008 - 21/10/2012 (ZUR)

RelPrf, ARYN.S, LAST TRADE(Last), .SX3P, LAST TRADE(Last), First Date Loaded16/09/2012, 0.635

ValueCHF

.123

0.6

0.63

0.66

0.69

0.72

0.75

0.78

0.81

0.84

0.87

0.9

0.93

0.96

M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S OQ2 08 Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12 [Delayed]

Source: Reuters

Figure 3: ARYZTA share price performance Weekly ARYN.S 10/08/2008 - 03/12/2012 (ZUR)

48.88

44.55

PriceCHF

.12

28

32

36

40

44

48

52

56

47.4445.55

43

48.45

ValueCHF

.123

65.132

ValueCHF

.12

0.990.92

ValueCHF

9.13M

S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N DQ3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12 Q4 12 [Delayed]

Source: Reuters

ARYZTA trades close to a very critical level. CHF 48.88 is a previous resistance level and any move above this should be closely watched. It is in a solid uptrend and a breakout looks likely. From here, CHF 56 looks a likely target.

Relative to the Stoxx 600 Food & Beverage sector, ARYZTA looks poised to outperform further in the medium term.


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Figure 6: CSM relative to the Stoxx 600 Food & Beverage Index Weekly CSMNc.AS, .SX3P 09/06/1991 - 09/12/2012 (AMS)

RelPrf, CSMNc.AS, LAST TRADE(Last), .SX3P, LAST TRADE(Last), First Date Loaded16/09/2012, 0.3221

ValueEUR

.12340.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.7

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20121990 2000 2010 [Delayed]

Source: Reuters

Figure 5: CSM share price performance Weekly CSMNc.AS 06/02/2000 - 02/12/2012 (AMS)

14.2825

PriceEUR

.1234

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

28

13.28913.0833

17.4143

13.97

ValueEUR

.123

63.938

ValueEUR

.1234

0.0298-0.0961

ValueEUR39.403M

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20122000 2010 [Delayed]

Source: Reuters

The trading period since late 2011 has repaired some of the technical damage that was caused by the sharp sell-off in mid-2011. It is difficult to make a bullish upside case as the stock is pushing against some technical resistance points. The stock will remain volatile and is likely to move 20% either way depending on whether it breaks up or down. Our bias is for the latter.

CSM has been a very poor performer versus the sector for the past 15 years. It is way too early to suggest that the bottom is in place.


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Figure 8: Kerry relative to the Stoxx 600 Food & Beverage Index Weekly KYGa.I, .SX3P 12/04/1992 - 13/10/2013 (DUB)

RelPrf, KYGa.I, LAST TRADE(Last), .SX3P, LAST TRADE(Last), First Date Loaded16/09/2012, 3.5789

ValueEUR

.1234

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

2.2

2.4

2.6

2.8

3

3.2

3.4

3.6

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20131990 2000 2010 [Delayed]

Source: Reuters

Figure 7: Kerry Group share price performance Weekly KYGa.I 04/07/2004 - 20/02/2013 (DUB)

PriceEUR

.123414

16

18

20

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

36

37.2632

34.2796

28.0402

37.55

ValueEUR

.123

59.012

ValueEUR

.1234

1.59521.6377

ValueEUR

41.192M

Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Source: Reuters

Kerry has coasted through all significant levels and, following its minor pullback in recent weeks, trades close to all-time highs. It remains in an uptrend and has built a very good support zone close to €34.

Kerry currently lies 5% from its all-time relative highs, suggesting that the majority of its outperformance may have happened already.


7 Davy Research

Figure 10: Glanbia relative to the Stoxx 600 Food & Beverage Index Weekly GL9.I, .SX3P 11/06/2000 - 13/10/2013 (DUB)

RelPrf, GL9.I, LAST TRADE(Last), .SX3P, LAST TRADE(Last), First Date Loaded16/09/2012, 1.3191

ValueEUR

.12340.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20132000 2010 [Delayed]

Source: Reuters

Figure 9: Glanbia share price performance Weekly GL9.I 11/09/1988 - 21/12/2013 (DUB)

PriceEUR

.1234

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

5.5

66.2487

5.7497

4.4396

6.726

ValueEUR

.123

76.289

ValueEUR

.1234

0.2970.2475

ValueEUR

59.997M

1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20131980 1990 2000 2010

Source: Reuters

Since breaking above the important €5 mark, Glanbia has added another 34% and now trades at all- time highs. Calling the upside move from here is difficult but on the downside €6 should prove to be an initial support. Given the pace of the move, a near-term pullback should be expected.

It looks to be onwards and upwards relative to the sector with another 26% of potential outperformance before it reaches its relative highs.


8 Davy Research

Figure 12: Associated British Foods relative to the Stoxx 600 Food & Bev Index Weekly ABF.L, .SX3P 22/03/1992 - 22/09/2013 (LON)

RelPrf, ABF.L, LAST TRADE(Last), .SX3P, LAST TRADE(Last), First Date Loaded16/09/2012, 1.121

ValueGBp

.1230.8

0.85

0.9

0.95

1

1.05

1.1

1.15

1.2

1.25

1.3

1.35

1.4

1.45

1.5

1.55

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20131990 2000 2010 [Delayed]

Source: Reuters

Figure 11: Associated British Foods share price performance Weekly ABF.L 27/07/2008 - 18/11/2012 (LON)

1,186.3779

PriceGBp

.1234

650

700

750

800

850

900

950

1,000

1,050

1,100

1,150

1,200

1,250

1,293.8286

1,231.7114

1,086.5742

1,276

ValueGBp

.123

47.614

ValueGBp

.1234

32.929232.739

ValueGBp

768.028M

A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O NQ3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12

Source: Reuters

Associated British Foods remains in a solid uptrend, and the recent pullback is consistent with the ongoing trend. The stock is likely to drift back towards 1240p in the near term. This should present an excellent entry point.

Relative to the sector, the picture has been mixed since 2009 but now it is shaping up for further (significant) outperformance.


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Figure 14: Südzucker relative to the Stoxx 600 Food & Beverage Index Weekly SZUG.DE, .SX3P 27/04/1997 - 23/06/2013 (FFT)

RelPrf, SZUG.DE, LAST TRADE(Last), .SX3P, LAST TRADE(Last), First Date Loaded16/09/2012, 0.7058

ValueEUR

.12340.4

0.45

0.5

0.55

0.6

0.65

0.7

0.75

0.8

0.85

0.9

0.95

1

1.05

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20131990 2000 2010 [Delayed]

Source: Reuters

Figure 13: Südzucker share price performance Weekly SZUG.DE 18/10/1998 - 10/06/2013 (FFT)

PriceEUR

.12348

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

2626.7603

24.9444

20.966

25.73

ValueEUR

.123

42.702

ValueEUR

.1234

0.73660.9812

ValueEUR-37.487M

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20131990 2000 2010 [Delayed]

Source: Reuters

It has been a particularly interesting couple of years for this chart with a number of quite spectacular breakouts since mid- 2010. The cross on the weekly MACD suggests that there may be some further short-term weakness ahead. It is well supported at €24 and, should it reach this, it would be an excellent entry point.

Despite some slight underperformance of late, its relative uptrend remains in place. We suspect that it will continue to outperform the sector in the medium term.


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Figure 16: Tate & Lyle relative to the Stoxx 600 Food & Beverage Index Weekly TATE.L, .SX3P 20/12/1987 - 29/12/2013 (LON)

RelPrf, TATE.L, LAST TRADE(Last), .SX3P, LAST TRADE(Last), First Date Loaded16/09/2012, 0.326

ValueGBp

.1230.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

0.45

0.5

0.55

0.6

0.65

0.7

0.75

0.8

0.85

0.9

0.95

1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20131980 1990 2000 2010 [Delayed]

Source: Reuters

Figure 15: Tate & Lyle share price performance Weekly TATE.L 18/10/1998 - 10/06/2013 (LON)

PriceGBp

.1234

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

750

655.1905670.7933

581.8819

647

ValueGBp

.123

43.806

ValueGBp

.1234

-6.7409-4.6008

ValueGBp

1.37B

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20131990 2000 2010

Source: Reuters

Despite some valiant attempts to return to its long-run uptrend, Tate & Lyle has now entered a solid downtrend. It looks likely to drift towards 600p in the first instance and perhaps 550p in an extreme bear case.

Relative to the overall sector, it is highly likely that the stock will underperform in the near term and perhaps even test its previous relative lows.


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Figure 18: Givaudan relative to the Stoxx 600 Food & Beverage Index Weekly GIVN.VX, .SX3P 11/05/1997 - 07/07/2013 (ZUR)

1.2

RelPrf, GIVN.VX, LAST TRADE(Last), .SX3P, LAST TRADE(Last), First Date Loaded16/09/2012, 1.146

ValueCHF

.123

0.75

0.8

0.85

0.9

0.95

1

1.05

1.1

1.15

1.2

1.25

1.3

1.35

1.4

1.45

1.5

1.55

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20131990 2000 2010 [Delayed]

Source: Reuters

Figure 17: Givaudan share price performance Weekly GIVN.VX 18/10/1998 - 10/06/2013 (ZUR)

PriceCHF

.1

450

500

550

600

650

700

750

800

850

900

950

1,000

1,050

916.3896.2883.5891

ValueCHF

.12333.972

ValueCHF

.1

8.114.3

ValueCHF

4.398M

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20131990 2000 2010 [Delayed]

Source: Reuters

This looks very much like a 'Hold'. It is likely to drift marginally lower in absolute terms, but the downside is likely to be CHF 850 (-4.5%) from current levels.

Very worrying relative move. This is a straight 'Sell' on a relative basis as it is now breaking through some very long-established relative levels.


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Figure 20: Symrise relative to the Stoxx 600 Food & Beverage Index Weekly SY1G.DE, .SX3P 29/10/2006 - 13/01/2013 (FFT)

RelPrf, SY1G.DE, LAST TRADE(Last), .SX3P, LAST TRADE(Last), First Date Loaded16/09/2012, 0.9351

ValueEUR

.12340.52

0.56

0.6

0.64

0.68

0.72

0.76

0.8

0.84

0.88

0.92

0.96

1

1.04

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 [Delayed]

Source: Reuters

Figure 19: Symrise share price performance Weekly SY1G.DE 17/12/2006 - 04/01/2013 (FFT)

22.0458

PriceEUR

.12348

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

25.9402

23.4495

20.0812

25.985

ValueEUR

.123

59.185

ValueEUR

.1234

1.32061.2262

ValueEUR

-16.211M

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q42007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 [Delayed]

Source: Reuters

Breaking above €22 was the critical move in 2012, and the performance since then has been superb. The trend remains bullish, but one should be wary of the upcoming negative MACD cross.

The strong relative outperformance over the past five months looks overdone. From a technical perspective, it looks likely to underperform in the near term.


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Figure 22: Frutarom relative to the Stoxx 600 Food & Beverage Index Weekly FRUT.TA, .SX3P 12/04/1992 - 13/10/2013 (TLV)

RelPrf, FRUT.TA, LAST TRADE(Last), .SX3P, LAST TRADE(Last), First Date Loaded16/09/2012, 5.397

ValueILa

.123

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

5.5

6

6.5

7

7.5

8

8.5

9

9.5

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20131990 2000 2010 [Delayed]

Source: Reuters

Figure 21: Frutarom share price performance Weekly FRUT.TA 06/02/2000 - 02/12/2012 (TLV)

2,705.09

PriceILa

.12

600

900

1,200

1,500

1,800

2,100

2,400

2,700

3,000

3,300

3,6003,615.113,560.933,441.69

3,724

ValueILa

.123

64.17

ValueILa

.12

29.5932.3

ValueILa

26.831M

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20122000 2010 [Delayed]

Source: Reuters

Although Frutarom is still in an uptrend, it faces some major resistance levels; for this reason, we would urge caution from a technical perspective. However, downside from here should be limited as it has spent a long period building a strong base.

Frutarom has in recent days bounced off a support level and the move from here should be closely watched, especially if it can reverse the downward trend.


14 Davy Research

Figure 24: Naturex relative to the Stoxx 600 Food & Beverage Index Weekly NATU.PA, .SX3P 05/11/1995 - 11/08/2013 (PAR)

RelPrf, NATU.PA, LAST TRADE(Last), .SX3P, LAST TRADE(Last), First Date Loaded16/09/2012, 1.342

ValueEUR

.1230.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.8

1.9

2

2.1

2.2

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20131990 2000 2010 [Delayed]

Source: Reuters

Figure 23: Naturex share price performance Weekly NATU.PA 18/10/1998 - 10/06/2013 (PAR)

PriceEUR

.123

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

49.55248.826

43.346

50.05

ValueEUR

.123

53.944

ValueEUR

.123

0.5840.007

ValueEUR

1.804M

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20131990 2000 2010 [Delayed]

Source: Reuters

Despite having some support at current levels (€50), Naturex looks set to fall further. It is in a downtrend since July 2011 and there is no sign of this reversing. An entry point in the low €40s would be more attractive.

The relative uptrend remains in place, but it is not a particularly strong one and we are not convinced that it will endure.


15 Davy Research

Figure 26: Origin Enterprises relative to the Stoxx 600 Food & Beverage Index Weekly OGN.I, .SX3P 24/07/2005 - 03/02/2013 (DUB)

RelPrf, OGN.I, LAST TRADE(Last), .SX3P, LAST TRADE(Last), First Date Loaded16/09/2012, 0.8646

ValueEUR

.1234

0.6

0.65

0.7

0.75

0.8

0.85

0.9

0.95

1

1.05

1.1

1.15

1.2

1.25

1.3

1.35

1.4

1.45

1.5

1.55

1.6

1.65

Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 [Delayed]

Source: Reuters

Figure 25: Origin Enterprises share price performance Weekly OGN.I 10/06/2007 - 17/02/2013 (DUB)

PriceEUR

.1234

1.6

2

2.4

2.8

3.2

3.6

4

4.4

4.8

3.83413.6533

3.2561

4.19

ValueEUR

.123

82.111

ValueEUR

.1234

0.11660.0659

ValueEUR

21.906M

J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Source: Reuters

Origin looks very interesting now that it has broken above the very important level of €4. This was a level that it failed to break on three occasions over the past five years. €4.8 is now the logical price target and €4 will prove to be a new support zone. This breakout should be followed.

Encouragingly, Origin is also starting to break out versus the overall sector.


16 Davy Research

Figure 28: Fyffes relative to the Stoxx 600 Food & Beverage Index Weekly FFY.I, .SX3P 16/01/2000 - 19/05/2013 (DUB)

RelPrf, FFY.I, LAST TRADE(Last), .SX3P, LAST TRADE(Last), First Date Loaded16/09/2012, 0.1983

ValueEUR

.12340.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.7

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20132000 2010 [Delayed]

Source: Reuters

Figure 27: Fyffes share price performance Weekly FFY.I 13/02/2000 - 06/01/2013 (DUB)

0.5792

PriceEUR

.1234

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

11.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.7

0.460.43350.3973

0.5

ValueEUR

.123

79.631

ValueEUR

.1234

0.01710.0115

ValueEUR

864.243M

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20132000 2010

Source: Reuters

Fyffes last week managed to close on a weekly basis above 50c for the first time since 2008 and hence this is a very significant move. It is currently overbought and we would not rule out some consolidation at these levels. 50c should prove to be support from here with 57-60c an obvious target range.

There have been many false dawns from a relative perspective, but it does look to have built a solid base and the outperform argument from here looks solid.


17 Davy Research

Figure 30: Total Produce relative to the Stoxx 600 Food & Beverage Index Weekly T7O.I, .SX3P 15/10/2006 - 30/12/2012 (DUB)

RelPrf, T7O.I, LAST TRADE(Last), .SX3P, LAST TRADE(Last), First Date Loaded16/09/2012, 0.4347

ValueEUR

.1234

0.4

0.45

0.5

0.55

0.6

0.65

0.7

0.75

0.8

0.85

0.9

0.95

1

1.05

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q42006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 [Delayed]

Source: Reuters

Figure 29: Total Produce share price performance Weekly T7O.I 07/01/2007 - 03/01/2013 (DUB)

PriceEUR

.12340.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

0.45

0.5

0.55

0.6

0.65

0.7

0.75

0.8

0.42230.42250.3953

0.47

ValueEUR

.123

72.775

ValueEUR

.1234

0.0044-0.0009

ValueEUR

94.368M

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q42007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Source: Reuters

Total Produce broke through 45c last week and this is an important level. It now looks likely to test its recent highs at 0.495. This may prove to be a significant task and one would expect a period of consolidation between 0.45 and 0.495.

Relative to the sector, Total Produce is showing some signs that it may be beginning a period of outperformance but it is too early to aggressively play it.


18 Davy Research

Figure 32: Greencore relative to the Stoxx 600 Food & Beverage Index Weekly GNC.L, .SX3P 13/12/1992 - 15/06/2014 (LON)

RelPrf, GNC.L, LAST TRADE(Last), .SX3P, LAST TRADE(Last), First Date Loaded16/09/2012, 0.144

ValueGBp

.1230.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.8

1.9

2

2.12.2

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20141990 2000 2010 [Delayed]

Source: Reuters

Figure 31: Greencore share price performance Weekly GNC.L 04/07/2004 - 20/02/2013 (LON)

PriceGBp

.1234

30

60

90

120

150

180

210

240

270

300

330

78.771473.104873.692779.25

ValueGBp

.123

58.832

ValueGBp

.1234

2.98233.0523

ValueGBp1.879B


Source: Reuters

Greencore has struggled to break the 80p level but still looks well positioned to do so in the medium term. Following this, 90p is likely to cap any move higher. The downside looks well protected at 60c.

Despite a potential bottom being in place, it still remains way too early to aggressively call for outperformance versus the sector.


19 Davy Research

Figure 34: C&C relative to the Stoxx 600 Food & Beverage Index Weekly GCC.I, .SX3P 25/01/2004 - 03/03/2013 (DUB)

RelPrf, GCC.I, LAST TRADE(Last), .SX3P, LAST TRADE(Last), First Date Loaded16/09/2012, 0.7717

ValueEUR

.12340.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

2.2

2.4

2.6

2.8

3

3.2

3.4

3.6

3.8

4

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 [Delayed]

Source: Reuters

Figure 33: C&C share price performance Weekly GCC.I 16/05/2004 - 23/02/2013 (DUB)

3.6396

PriceEUR

.1234

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

3.50563.47173.23293.6

ValueEUR

.123

58.431

ValueEUR

.1234

0.03960.0198

ValueEUR

304.134M


Source: Reuters

€3.65 remains a critical level for C&C and historically has been very important. It is now testing this level. If it can break through it, the likelihood is that it will move significantly higher. €5 is an obvious target.

C&C remains in a downtrend versus the sector and any change in this scenario should be closely watched.


20 Davy Research

Figure 36: Carlsberg relative to the Stoxx 600 Food & Beverage Index Weekly CARLb.CO, .SX3P 12/04/1992 - 13/10/2013 (COP)

0.379

0.486

RelPrf, CARLb.CO, LAST TRADE(Last), .SX3P, LAST TRADE(Last), First Date Loaded16/09/2012, 0.465

ValueDKK

.123

0.32

0.36

0.4

0.44

0.48

0.52

0.56

0.6

0.64

0.68

0.72

0.76

0.8

0.84

0.88

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20131990 2000 2010 [Delayed]

Source: Reuters

Figure 35: Carlsberg share price performance Weekly CARLb.CO 07/08/2005 - 30/01/2013 (COP)

547.21

PriceDKK

.12

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

504.51

468.85470.17

511.5

ValueDKK

.123

58.945

ValueDKK

.12

18.4415.03

ValueDKK42.821M

Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 [Delayed]

Source: Reuters

We would be a seller of Carlsberg and expect it to trade down towards DKK 470 (c.8% downside). It is pushing against some significant resistance.

The relative trade has been very difficult to call over the past number of years. It has bounced off an important support level but, as of yet, we are not convinced that it will outperform significantly.


21 Davy Research

Figure 38: Heineken relative to the Stoxx 600 Food & Beverage Index Weekly HEIN.AS, .SX3P 19/03/1989 - 29/03/2015 (AMS)

RelPrf, HEIN.AS, LAST TRADE(Last), .SX3P, LAST TRADE(Last), First Date Loaded16/09/2012, 2.1080

ValueEUR

.1234

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

2.2

2.4

2.6

2.8

3

3.2

3.4

3.6

3.8

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20151980 1990 2000 2010 [Delayed]

Source: Reuters

Figure 37: Heineken share price performance Weekly HEIN.AS 08/10/1995 - 07/08/2013 (AMS)

PriceEUR

.1234

12

16

20

24

28

32

36

40

4443.626

40.8564

37.368

43.1

ValueEUR

.123

50.402

ValueEUR

.1234

1.36921.336

ValueEUR

420.151M

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20131990 2000 2010 [Delayed]

Source: Reuters

Tough to call at current levels but our preference would be to sell Heineken. It is pushing against some important resistance levels and these are likely to cap the upside. An entry point closer to €40 would be more attractive.

Although there are signs that it is building a support base, we suggest that it will underperform further.


22 Davy Research

Figure 40: Pernod Ricard relative to the Stoxx 600 Food & Beverage Index Weekly PERP.PA, .SX3P 19/03/1989 - 29/03/2015 (PAR)

RelPrf, PERP.PA, LAST TRADE(Last), .SX3P, LAST TRADE(Last), First Date Loaded16/09/2012, 1.6694

ValueEUR

.1234

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.8

1.9

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20151980 1990 2000 2010 [Delayed]

Source: Reuters

Figure 39: Pernod Ricard share price performance Weekly PERP.PA 08/10/1995 - 07/08/2013 (PAR)

PriceEUR

.123415

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

86.5222

80.7019

68.8912

86.67

ValueEUR

.123

57.010

ValueEUR

.1234

3.11313.154

ValueEUR

343.732M

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20131990 2000 2010 [Delayed]

Source: Reuters

Strong move after breaking out above the €75 level. Difficult to call from here as it is at all-time highs. Weekly MACD is signalling a sell, and perhaps we could expect a slight pullback in the near term.

This is a really nice relative chart. We would expect it to move higher from here and hence outperform.

23 Davy Research


Associated British Foods Sugar emerged as a key driver of the ABF story over the past three years. In 2008, it accounted for 23% of group profits; we estimate that it will

account for as much as 46% in 2012. We continue to remain positive on the Sugar division outlook given the tight demand/supply situation that exists in the European market. African trading should also benefit from increased production.

After decades of price deflation in the UK clothing market, the past two years have seen a return of inflationary pressure. Higher operating costs are one influencing factor. One can clearly see that this has had a direct impact on volumes. Primark looks to have been a winner in this environment as it has maintained strong like-for-like growth despite all the macro difficulties (note the recent contrast between Primark and Next).

Consensus estimates have remained stable in the last few months, especially for the closest forecast years; for the current year, we remain in line with consensus. For 2013, we expect a further 8% growth.

The emergence of Primark and the recovery post EU sugar regime change have allowed the stock to trade on above-average valuation levels for much of the last seven years. Interestingly, it could be beginning to break out from a ratings perspective.

On a P/E basis, the stock trades on a multiple of 13.6x, in line with its long-run average but below the loftier levels of 2006-2008.

Technically speaking, the ABF share price is in a strong uptrend; if this trend is maintained, there should be an excellent buy opportunity in the very near term.

Raw sugar c/lb

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Sep 02 Aug 04 Jul 06 Jun 08 May 10 Apr 12

Raw Sugar-ISA Daily Price c/lb

Source: Bloomberg

ABF price chart

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

Dec 01 Dec 03 Dec 05 Dec 07 Dec 09 Dec 11 Source: Datastream

UK clothing price and volume

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

Sep-

98

Mar-

99

Sep-

99

Mar-

00

Sep-

00

Mar-

01

Sep-

01

Mar-

02

Sep-

02

Mar-

03

Sep-

03

Mar

-04

Sep-

04

Mar

-05

Sep-

05

Mar

-06

Sep-

06

Mar-07

Sep-

07

Mar-08

Sep-

08

Mar

-09

Sep-

09

Mar

-10

Sep-

10

Mar

-11

Sep-

11

Mar-

12

Sep-

12

UK RETAIL SALES: TEXTILES,CLOTHING & FOOTWEAR- ALL BUSINESS VOLA Implied Pricing Source: Datastream

ABF forward EV/EBITDA

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

Sep 01 Sep 03 Sep 05 Sep 07 Sep 09 Sep 11

Source: Factset

ABF consensus estimates

60.00

70.00

80.00

90.00

100.00

110.00

120.00

45 D

ays

31/0

8/12

30/06

/12

30/0

4/12

29/0

2/12

31/12

/11

31/1

0/11

31/0

8/11

30/06

/11

30/0

4/11

28/0

2/11

31/12

/10

31/1

0/10

31/0

8/10

30/06

/10

30/04/1

0

28/0

2/10

31/12

/09

31/1

0/09

31/0

8/09

30/06

/09

30/04

/09

F.Y. 2012 Ends Sep 12 F.Y. 2013 Ends Sep 13 F.Y. 2014 Ends Sep 14

Source: Factset

ABF forward PE

10.0 x

11.0 x

12.0 x

13.0 x

14.0 x

15.0 x

16.0 x

17.0 x

Sep 02 Sep 04 Sep 06 Sep 08 Sep 10

Source: Factset

24 Davy Research


Heineken Heineken has recently widened its forward P/E discount to main rivals AB InBev (ABI) and SABMiller. Heineken trades at 13.9x on a 12-month

forward P/E versus 17.0x for ABI, 17.3x for SABMiller and 12.4x for Carlsberg. This discount reflects Heineken's over-exposure to difficult Western European and US markets and the greater exposure ABI and SABMiller have to emerging markets.

H1 numbers were below consensus estimates as higher input costs and a poor summer in Europe weighed on performance. Full year guidance was maintained as a better second-half revenue performance and earlier-than-expected cost saving delivery is expected to offset increased input cost guidance for the full year (c.8% on a per hectolitre basis).

An improved performance in the Americas, highlighted by the reversal of some share losses in the key Mexican market in 2011, was positive in H1; however, Africa slowed as capacity constraints have not yet been alleviated, while the key Nigerian market suffered a 'pause'.

Concerns remain for H2 regarding the ability to achieve the necessary pricing in Europe to offset the flagged input costs. The significant wholesale business Heineken operates in Europe could see substantially negative operating leverage persist in H2 if the top line is not robust.

Away from operations, the main story in recent months has been the offer to acquire the remainder of its Asian joint venture, Asia Pacific Breweries. A key Fraser and Neave shareholder vote on September 28th will determine if Heineken's final offer has been successful. For now, the actions of a number of associated Thai companies mean that the deal's ultimate completion remains uncertain.

12-month fwd P/E

17.0 x

11.6 x 11.9 x12.4 x 13.0 x

16.0 x

13.9 x

16.0 x

22.0 x

17.3 x

15.5 x16.8 x 17.1 x

15.9 x

10.9 x

17.6 x

0.0 x

5.0 x

10.0 x

15.0 x

20.0 x

25.0 x

ABI

Britvic

C&

C

Carlsberg

CC

E

Cam

pari

Diageo

Heineken

Pernod

Remy

SABM

iller

European LuxuryG

oods

Global Brew

ers

Global Spirits

Stoxx 600 F&B

FTSE E300

Source: Davy; Factset

12-month fwd EV/EBITDA

9.7x

8.6x

11.0x

12.4x

7.9x

12.1x

14.3x

12.6x

7.6x 7.6x 7.1x

0.0x

2.0x

4.0x

6.0x

8.0x

10.0x

12.0x

14.0x

16.0x

ABI

Britvic

C&

C

Carlsberg

CC

E

Cam

pari

Diageo

Heineken

Pernod

Remy

SABM

iller

Source: Davy; Factset

Heineken 2012F EBIT (beia) breakdown pre-deal

WE, 34.0%

CE&E, 12.2%Americas, 24.9%

A&ME, 23.0%

Asia/Pac, 5.9%

Source: Davy estimates

Global brewers % profits from emerging markets post deal

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Heineken Carlsberg ABI SABMiller

Emerging Markets % EBIT Developed Markets % EBIT Source: Davy estimates

Heineken 2012F EBIT (beia) breakdown post-deal

WE, 30.8%

CE&E, 11.1%

Americas, 22.6%

A&ME, 20.9%

Asia/Pac, 14.6%

Source: Davy estimates

Asia Pacific Breweries Geographic EBIT breakdown 2011

0.45

0.29

0.26

0

Indochina & thailand South & South East Asia Oceania North Asia

Total EBIT of S$614m in 2011

Source: Company results

S E C T O R R E V I E W

Davy Research 25

Food and beverage Newsflow

S E P T E M B E R 1 4 T H

Indicative positive margin progression in US baked goods sector in August

FACTS: Output price rises outpace key input cost increases in US baked goods sector. ANALYSIS: Manufacturer selling prices of baked goods in the US increased at a slower rate than overall food prices in August, according to the Producer Price Index (PPI) for the month. Seasonally adjusted, the PPI for overall food rose by 0.9% month-on-month (mom); this compared with a 0.2% increase for bakery products. The unadjusted year-on-year (yoy) comparison saw a 2.4% rise in bakery products compared with a 2.0% rise for finished consumer foods overall. DAVY VIEW: The unadjusted series is the better measure of invoice value. The 2.4% yoy rise on this measure, when compared with price changes for key inputs, indicates positive margin progression for baked goods, as flour and refined sugar showed substantially lower price increases of 0.9% and 0.2% respectively, while a 5.8% price decrease yoy was recorded for shortening and cooking oils. The data point of some concern was the 9.0% yoy rise in the price of processed eggs (30.1% mom seasonally adjusted). This may be due in part to the speedy offset of rising feed costs to the egg-producing sector.


Symrise: Probi investment marks another commitment to biotechnology

Biotechnology is starting to reshape company strategy in the specialist food ingredients sector. This is apparent even in the flavour and fragrance (F&F) sector, whose origins are located in the chemicals industry of the 18th century. There is an increasing emphasis on natural, ethically sourced ingredients in the F&F sector. This is driven by consumer demand and also by the prospect of increased regulation of chemically synthesised inputs. The security and sustainability of natural raw materials are thus strained. Ingredient technology companies that offer biotech and fermentation capability (other listed ingredient companies involved in fermentation include Kerry Group, CSM, DSM, Tate & Lyle, ABF) can potentially provide efficient solutions at processing and product level. We note Symrise's recent investment in Swedish probiotics research company Probi with great interest. Although a modest cash outlay, it provides the group's first entry into cultures (other listed ingredient companies involved in cultures include Chr Hansen, Dupont, DSM, Kerry Group), specifically probiotics. The company is already stretching traditional F&F boundaries with its commitment to consumer health and cosmetic ingredient solutions that involve bio-active as well as F&F ingredients. Symrise has made several similar investments since IPO, including

another Scandinavian company, Indevex, earlier in 2012. It licensed rights to Indevex's NGC nutrition formula, which is a powder mix of all eight essential amino acids as well as fatty acids and fibres. This is a 100% natural formula. Symrise will also invest in joint R&D to develop new products. Although the scale of the Probi investment is almost small enough to ignore, we believe it could be a highly significant milestone over time. Price rating: Outperform (21/06/12). For further detail, see our research report issued September 13th.


Associated British Foods: Strong end to the year; underlying growth prospects remain positive

FACTS: ABF's full-year results will be in line with expectations. ANALYSIS: Trading performance at year-end remained strong and we remain very comfortable that mid-teen EPS growth (forecast +16.6% to 86.3p) was delivered. Net debt will be below £1.2bn, a little better than expected, helped by underlying profit growth and higher working capital inflows. Primark (32% forecast EBITA, pre-central-costs): Underlying revenue growth at Primark accelerated in the second half of the year and FY sales were 17% ahead year-on-year (+15% reported). Like-for-like sales growth was 3% for the full year, with a particularly strong performance in the UK in the last two to three months. Sales in continental Europe remained buoyant. Margins in the second half rose, as expected, given reduced cotton prices. Margin for the full year will be close to last year's levels (Davy: -10bps yoy). Store expansion continues apace. Nine new stores will be opened by the end of the fiscal year: six in Spain, one in Berlin and two in the UK. The Oxford Street East store will open on September 20th and will have 80,000 sq ft of selling space over four floors. Sugar (46% forecast EBITA, pre-central-costs): EU operations provided the strong uplift in Sugar in 2011/12. Profit will be considerably higher for the full year. Both the UK and Spain benefitted from higher-than-expected production and good pricing in the market. H2 profit at Illovo improved again with higher production and pricing. Chinese profits were lower as weaker pricing more than offset a 12.5% increase in production. Grocery (18% forecast EBITA, pre-central-costs): Trading across several parts of this division remained challenging in the second half. Although revenues were ahead yoy, operating profit declined due to a margin squeeze (Allied Bakeries) and restructuring costs (George Weston, Allied Bakeries). A £100m non-cash impairment charge has been taken against the Australian meat assets, representing approximately half of the value currently carried in

the books. Some further modest cost restructuring may be required next year. Agriculture (3% forecast EBITA, pre-central-costs): Its strong performance continued, with revenues ahead and profit in line with last year. Frontier continued to trade well with solid grain trading levels and continued high demand for fertiliser, seed and crop protection products. Ingredients (4% forecast EBITA, pre-central-costs): Although its enzyme ingredients units delivered higher sales and profits, this was more than offset by restructuring charges and tighter margins at AB Mauri (yeast, bakery ingredients). DAVY VIEW: ABF has delivered another strong year of growth and has continued to re-invest profitably across its business lines. Underlying growth prospects for 2012/13 remain positive due to solid sugar pricing conditions and Primark's expansion plans — they are hampered a little perhaps by euro weakness given its potential transaction impact on UK sugar and on the euro-denominated revenue base of Primark. We reiterate our 'Outperform' view on the stock. Price rating: Outperform (05/07/11, previously Neutral, 03/11/10).

S E P T E M B E R 6 T H

Total Produce: Defensive qualities undervalued; we reiterate our 'Outperform' stance

Despite the defensive nature of its business model, Total Produce has been overlooked in the recent re-rating of the food sector. Its consistent earnings growth, solid balance sheet and attractive cash-flow profile appear to have been ignored. Yield-hungry investors should be attracted by a sustainable dividend yield in excess of 4.5%. The company reported H1 numbers on September 4th. It increased its full-year EPS target to the top end of its previously stated range of 7-8c. We have increased our own forecasts to 7.8c (previously 7.6c). Trading conditions were difficult in the euro-zone in the first half but we anticipate an improved performance in the second half. The benefit of the group's broad geographic spread was evident in the first half. Much focus has been placed on the 2011 results, which were negatively impacted by the unprecedented E.Coli issues that impacted the fresh produce sector in Europe. This masked a strong underlying performance in the non-euro-zone segments, which recorded a stable or improving margin out-turn in all cases. The company's valuation remains undemanding across a range of metrics. For this reason, we believe that there is further upside in the stock and we reiterate our 'Outperform' stance. For further detail, see our research report issued September 6th. Price rating: Outperform (14/05/10, previously Neutral, 30/06/09).


Davy Research 26

Food and beverage Food

S H A R E P R I C E A N D P E R F O R M A N C E Price 12 Month Mkt. Cap Change % (€) Rel to E300 sector % Pr/Bk Debt/EBITDA Local High Low €m Wk 1 Mth YTD Wk 1 Mth YTD 2011 2011 2012

I N G R E D I E N T S Kerry Group (KYG ID) 3700 3900 2485 6499 -0.8 -3.2 30.8 1.4 1.0 22.7 3.52 2.1 1.7 Frutarom (FRUT IT) 969 987 823 422 4.6 2.8 6.9 6.9 7.2 0.2 1.41 1.3 1.2 Givaudan (GIVN VX) 89650 96300 70350 6806 -1.0 -5.3 0.1 1.2 -1.2 -6.2 2.35 1.9 1.6 Naturex (NRX FP) 5000 5500 4300 348 -3.5 1.0 -3.7 -1.3 5.4 -9.7 1.63 1.7 2.3 Robertet (RBT FP) 12101 12900 10820 257 -3.2 0.4 0.8 -1.1 4.8 -5.5 1.32 1.0 0.5 Symrise (SY1 GY) 2547 2697 1643 3010 -4.6 -2.8 23.5 -2.5 1.4 15.8 3.29 1.5 1.2 CHR Hansen (CHR DC) 17430 18000 11170 3227 -1.2 -1.6 39.2 1.0 2.6 30.5 4.99 1.7 1.5 IFF (IFF US) 6025 6301 5131 3740 -4.0 -7.4 13.5 -1.9 -3.3 6.4 4.39 1.5 1.3 McCormick (MKC US) 6299 6341 4493 6368 -2.4 -1.0 23.4 -0.2 3.3 15.7 5.23 1.9 1.4 Sensient Tech (SXT US) 3718 4092 3155 1414 -3.3 -3.9 -3.1 -1.2 0.3 -9.2 N/A 1.3 1.4 Ingredients (12) 2089 2181 1599 32196 -2.0 -3.5 14.5 0.1 0.7 7.3 3.38 1.8 1.5

D A I R Y P R O C E S S I N G Donegal Creameries (DCP ID) 330 390 300 33 -7.0 -2.9 6.3 -5.0 1.3 -0.3 0.66 415.2 2.3 Glanbia (GLB ID) 681 681 434 2004 1.1 12.2 47.1 3.4 17.1 38.0 3.87 2.2 2.0 Dairy Crest (DCG LN) 359 359 290 591 -0.7 -0.2 10.2 1.5 4.2 3.3 1.74 2.4 2.8 Danone (BN FP) 4902 5470 4275 31758 -1.6 0.2 0.9 0.6 4.6 -5.4 2.42 2.0 1.7 Koninklijke DSM (DSM NA) 4004 4414 3087 7263 3.6 4.0 11.7 5.9 8.5 4.7 1.14 0.2 0.8 Nestle SA (NESN VX) 5835 6105 4837 154693 -2.0 -5.1 7.9 0.1 -0.9 1.2 3.28 0.9 0.8 Saputo (SAP CN) 4015 4617 3741 6235 -5.1 -11.5 6.8 -3.0 -7.6 0.1 3.90 0.5 0.3 Dairy processing (13) 2406 2528 1995 211579 -1.8 -4.1 7.8 0.3 0.1 1.0 2.78 1.1 1.0

F R U I T D I S T R I B U T I O N Fyffes (FFY ID) 50 51 36 149 -0.2 11.1 38.8 2.1 15.9 30.1 1.09 0.7 0.4 Total Produce (TOT ID) 47 50 35 155 4.2 14.6 27.0 6.5 19.6 19.1 0.87 1.7 1.5Chiquita (CQB US) 672 1037 466 235 4.0 9.3 -20.4 6.3 14.0 -25.4 N/A N/A N/AFDP (FDP US) 2449 2672 2208 1082 -2.4 -6.2 -3.3 -0.3 -2.2 -9.4 0.86 N/A N/AFruit distribution (4) 4039 4293 3663 1621 -0.8 -1.2 -1.4 1.4 3.1 -7.6 0.88 0.2 0.2

S P E C I A L I T Y B A K I N G ARYZTA (YZA ID) 4024 4060 3160 3542 1.4 0.6 7.3 3.6 5.0 0.6 1.80 2.2 1.8 Canada Bread (CBY CN) 4401 4988 4200 878 -0.5 -4.0 5.2 1.7 0.2 -1.4 N/A N/A N/ACSM NV (CSM NA) 1416 1567 925 1032 3.2 8.8 17.2 5.5 13.5 9.9 0.99 3.0 2.9 Panera Bread (PNRA US) 17049 17049 10117 3851 5.8 3.6 19.0 8.1 8.1 11.6 7.78 -0.7 -0.9 Ralcorp Holdings (RAH US) 7285 7671 5939 3068 -1.4 6.0 -0.8 0.8 10.6 -7.0 1.54 2.6 2.8 Speciality baking (6) 6961 6961 5278 12778 2.1 3.5 9.4 4.3 7.9 2.6 2.10 1.9 1.6

F O O D M A N U F A C T U R E R S Greencore Group (GNC LN) 80 84 49 386 -0.5 -2.3 59.9 1.7 2.0 50.0 1.16 3.7 3.0 Associated British Foods (ABF LN) 1275 1336 1069 12468 -3.5 -3.6 18.9 -1.3 0.5 11.5 1.75 1.1 0.9 Cranswick (CWK LN) 800 858 589 476 -4.7 -7.8 11.3 -2.6 -3.8 4.3 1.55 0.4 0.3 Premier Foods (PFD LN) 64 180 33 188 -5.6 -6.6 12.8 -3.5 -2.5 5.8 0.27 4.6 4.5 UK food manufacturers (3) 1213 1298 941 13132 -3.6 -3.9 18.5 -1.4 0.3 11.1 1.61 1.5 1.4 Conagra Foods (CAG US) 2559 2718 2299 7948 -2.3 -2.1 -4.3 -0.2 2.2 -10.3 2.33 1.7 1.5 General Mills (GIS US) 3889 4105 3749 19217 -3.2 -4.9 -5.0 -1.1 -0.8 -10.9 3.70 2.1 2.2 PZ Cussons (PZC LN) 305 374 285 1612 -1.3 -4.0 -10.2 0.9 0.2 -15.8 2.41 0.2 -0.1 Unilever NV (UNIA NA) 2723 2879 2225 93384 -2.3 -3.0 2.5 -0.2 1.2 -3.9 5.37 1.2 1.0 Food manufacturers (10) 1461 1525 1249 153861 -2.4 -3.1 0.5 -0.3 1.1 -5.8 2.86 1.5 1.4

A G R I B U S I N E S S A N D P R I M A R Y P R O D U C E R S Continental Farmers Group (CFGP ID) 30 36 24 49 0.0 7.1 7.1 2.2 11.8 0.5 0.70 -0.5 0.3 Origin Enterprises (OGN ID) 422 422 300 582 5.5 9.6 38.4 7.8 14.4 29.7 2.58 1.3 0.9 Austevoll (AUSS NO) 2580 2670 1870 701 -2.2 3.1 27.5 -0.1 7.6 19.5 0.66 1.6 2.2 Carrs Milling (CRM LN) 975 990 724 107 -2.6 4.9 27.4 -0.5 9.5 19.4 1.52 -0.3 0.0 K+S (SDF GY) 3785 4700 3040 7244 -2.7 -4.8 8.4 -0.5 -0.7 1.6 2.35 0.2 0.1 Nutreco (NUO NA) 5640 5899 4488 1981 -1.3 -1.5 10.9 0.9 2.8 4.0 2.24 0.9 0.8 Agribusiness (9) 2828 2873 2080 37105 0.9 -0.3 19.9 3.1 4.1 12.4 3.18 0.5 0.4

S W E E T E N E R S Associated British Foods (ABF LN) 1275 1336 1069 12468 -3.5 -3.6 18.9 -1.3 0.5 11.5 1.75 1.1 0.9 ADM (ADM US) 2719 3350 2416 13643 -2.7 -1.1 -6.1 -0.6 3.2 -12.0 0.94 1.9 1.9 Agrana Beteiligungs (AGR AV) 8899 9185 7230 1264 2.0 0.3 11.2 4.3 4.6 4.3 1.19 1.5 1.1 Ingredion Inc (INGR US) 5551 5819 3774 3222 -2.1 -1.5 4.2 0.1 2.8 -2.3 2.02 1.9 1.6 Illovo Sugar (ILV SJ) 2957 3054 2343 1266 -5.6 -5.4 17.2 -3.5 -1.3 9.9 2.44 0.5 0.5 Südzucker (SZU GY) 2563 2867 1923 4852 1.0 -4.8 4.0 3.2 -0.6 -2.5 1.47 0.8 0.7 Tate & Lyle (TATE LN) 646 721 593 3719 0.7 -4.7 -5.4 2.9 -0.6 -11.3 2.93 1.1 0.9 Tongaat Hulett (TON SJ) 13430 14099 8952 1314 -5.3 -6.5 29.4 -3.2 -2.4 21.3 2.10 2.0 1.4 Sweeteners (8) 2121 2253 1777 41749 -2.3 -3.0 4.5 -0.1 1.2 -2.1 1.39 1.5 1.3 FTSE E300 Food Producers (E3FOOD) 1840 1933 1516 -2.2 -4.2 6.7


Davy Research 27

Food and beverage Food

V A L U A T I O N EPS (c) EPS Gth % Div Yield % Div Cover EV/EBITDA P/E 2011 2012 2013 11-13 2011 2012 2011 2011 2012 2013 2011 2012 2013

I N G R E D I E N T S Kerry Group (KYG ID) 213 235 256 20.2 0.9 1.0 6.6 12.9 11.0 10.1 17.3 15.7 14.4 Frutarom (FRUT IT) 73 93 102 39.7 0.6 0.8 12.4 8.1 6.7 6.0 13.3 10.5 9.5 Givaudan (GIVN VX) 4953 5386 6204 25.3 2.5 2.6 2.3 12.8 12.0 9.8 18.1 16.6 14.5 Naturex (NRX FP) 247 271 296 19.6 0.2 0.2 24.7 11.4 9.6 8.7 20.2 18.5 16.9 Robertet (RBT FP) 1035 1133 1177 13.7 2.2 2.3 3.8 6.4 5.3 4.9 11.7 10.7 10.3 Symrise (SY1 GY) 159 179 192 21.0 2.4 2.6 2.6 11.0 9.9 9.2 16.0 14.3 13.3 CHR Hansen (CHR DC) 617 706 809 31.0 2.0 2.0 1.7 17.7 15.4 13.9 28.2 24.7 21.5 IFF (IFF US) 374 399 433 15.6 1.9 2.2 3.2 10.4 10.0 9.0 16.1 15.1 13.9 McCormick (MKC US) 279 305 335 20.1 1.8 2.0 2.5 15.0 13.2 12.1 22.6 20.7 18.8 Sensient Tech (SXT US) 248 252 270 8.9 2.3 2.3 3.0 9.1 8.9 8.1 15.0 14.8 13.8 Ingredients (12) 1.8 2.0 2.9 12.6 11.3 10.1 18.6 16.9 15.3

D A I R Y P R O C E S S I N G Donegal Creameries (DCP ID) -76 49 54 N/A 4.8 4.8 N/A N/A 0.9 0.5 N/A 6.7 6.1 Glanbia (GLB ID) 46 53 58 24.9 1.2 1.3 5.6 11.3 10.0 8.8 14.7 12.7 11.8 Dairy Crest (DCG LN) 49 44 38 -22.5 5.7 5.9 2.4 5.7 6.6 7.1 7.4 8.2 9.5 Danone (BN FP) 289 308 339 17.3 2.8 3.0 2.1 11.1 10.4 9.5 17.0 15.9 14.5 Koninklijke DSM (DSM NA) 364 300 371 1.8 3.6 3.7 2.5 5.8 6.9 6.0 11.0 13.4 10.8 Nestle SA (NESN VX) 307 342 366 19.1 3.3 3.6 1.6 13.0 11.6 10.8 19.0 17.0 16.0 Saputo (SAP CN) 247 260 287 16.2 0.0 0.0 N/A 10.0 9.7 9.0 16.3 15.5 14.0 Dairy processing (13) 3.3 3.5 1.8 11.6 10.6 9.8 18.0 16.4 15.1

F R U I T D I S T R I B U T I O N Fyffes (FFY ID) 6 8 7 20.4 3.9 4.9 3.1 4.7 3.3 3.6 8.3 6.0 6.9 Total Produce (TOT ID) 7 8 8 10.6 4.0 4.3 3.8 5.0 4.4 4.1 6.5 6.1 5.9 Chiquita (CQB US) 83 -17 67 -19.9 0.0 0.0 N/A 2.2 3.4 2.3 8.1 N/A 10.1 FDP (FDP US) 182 239 253 39.0 0.6 1.6 12.1 7.1 6.1 5.7 13.5 10.2 9.7 Fruit distribution (4) 1.3 2.3 8.2 5.0 5.0 4.3 10.7 8.9 8.9

S P E C I A L I T Y B A K I N G ARYZTA (YZA ID) 310 338 380 22.7 1.2 1.2 6.7 9.4 9.0 8.0 13.0 11.9 10.6 Canada Bread (CBY CN) 343 322 369 7.6 0.0 0.0 N/A 7.1 6.8 6.1 12.8 13.7 11.9 CSM NV (CSM NA) -237 98 150 N/A 4.9 5.2 N/A 7.7 8.0 6.1 N/A 14.4 9.4 Panera Bread (PNRA US) 455 578 680 49.5 0.0 0.0 N/A 15.8 12.9 10.7 37.5 29.5 25.1 Ralcorp Holdings (RAH US) 522 310 388 -25.7 0.0 0.0 N/A 7.7 9.6 8.4 14.0 23.5 18.8 Speciality baking (6) 2.0 2.1 5.5 9.4 9.5 8.1 25.2 17.8 14.9

F O O D M A N U F A C T U R E R S Greencore Group (GNC LN) 10 11 13 26.3 6.7 5.3 1.9 7.0 6.3 5.9 7.7 7.0 6.1 Associated British Foods (ABF LN) 74 86 93 26.0 1.9 2.1 3.0 9.5 8.5 8.0 17.2 14.8 13.7 Cranswick (CWK LN) 72 77 79 9.7 3.6 3.8 2.5 6.7 6.3 6.0 11.1 10.4 10.1 Premier Foods (PFD LN) 18 29 32 75.1 0.0 0.0 N/A 5.3 5.3 4.8 3.5 2.2 2.0 UK food manufacturers (3) 2.0 2.2 3.2 8.7 7.8 7.4 16.0 13.5 12.5 Conagra Foods (CAG US) 184 198 212 14.9 3.7 3.9 2.0 7.8 7.4 7.1 13.9 13.0 12.1 General Mills (GIS US) 256 266 289 12.9 3.1 3.4 2.1 9.7 9.5 8.9 15.2 14.6 13.5 PZ Cussons (PZC LN) 15 16 18 23.2 2.2 2.4 2.2 11.4 10.0 8.7 20.7 19.0 16.8 Unilever NV (UNIA NA) 144 160 175 21.5 3.2 3.5 1.6 13.4 12.3 11.2 18.9 17.1 15.6 Food manufacturers (10) 3.0 3.2 2.1 10.0 9.8 9.3 15.7 15.2 14.0

A G R I B U S I N E S S A N D P R I M A R Y P R O D U C E R S Continental Farmers Group (CFGP ID) 2 3 4 85.7 0.0 0.0 N/A 7.0 5.9 5.1 13.5 9.8 7.3 Origin Enterprises (OGN ID) 40 44 47 16.6 2.2 2.4 4.3 7.6 6.9 6.4 10.5 9.5 9.0 Austevoll (AUSS NO) 393 249 372 -5.3 3.9 3.9 3.9 4.2 5.6 4.2 6.6 10.4 6.9 Carrs Milling (CRM LN) 76 93 97 27.3 2.7 3.0 2.9 5.8 5.3 6.2 12.8 10.5 10.0 K+S (SDF GY) 350 304 346 -1.1 3.4 3.7 2.7 6.1 6.6 6.2 10.8 12.5 10.9 Nutreco (NUO NA) 424 490 525 23.9 3.2 3.8 2.4 7.8 7.0 6.4 13.3 11.5 10.7 Agribusiness (9) 2.6 2.8 2.5 9.5 9.2 8.3 15.5 15.0 13.7

S W E E T E N E R S Associated British Foods (ABF LN) 74 86 93 26.0 1.9 2.1 3.0 9.5 8.5 8.0 17.2 14.8 13.7 ADM (ADM US) 305 225 250 -18.0 2.2 2.5 5.0 6.4 7.7 8.1 8.9 12.1 10.9 Agrana Beteiligungs (AGR AV) 1067 1142 1045 -2.1 4.0 4.0 3.0 5.5 5.1 5.0 8.3 7.8 8.5 Ingredion Inc (INGR US) 468 520 562 20.1 1.2 1.3 7.3 6.9 6.3 5.5 11.9 10.7 9.9 Illovo Sugar (ILV SJ) 133 207 289 117.7 2.2 3.1 2.0 9.1 7.0 6.0 22.3 14.3 10.2 Südzucker (SZU GY) 186 273 224 20.5 2.7 2.8 2.7 6.9 6.1 6.1 13.8 9.4 11.5 Tate & Lyle (TATE LN) 56 57 60 6.2 3.9 4.0 2.3 8.0 7.4 6.8 11.4 11.4 10.8 Tongaat Hulett (TON SJ) 819 1151 1395 70.4 2.2 2.9 2.8 8.3 6.5 5.6 16.4 11.7 9.6 Sweeteners (8) 2.3 2.5 3.6 7.1 7.1 6.9 11.9 12.0 11.4


28 Davy Research

Food and beverage Beverage

S H A R E P R I C E A N D P E R F O R M A N C E Price 12 Month Mkt. Cap Change % (€) Rel to E300 sector % Pr/Bk Debt/EBITDA Local High Low €m Wk 1 Mth YTD Wk 1 Mth YTD 2011 2011 2012

C&C (GCC ID) 368 393 270 1245 -1.6 10.6 28.4 1.5 14.2 1.8 1.74 -0.5 -1.0 Global Sector Anheuser-Busch InBev (ABI BB) 6502 6994 3704 104443 -4.5 -0.8 37.5 -1.6 2.4 9.0 3.59 2.3 1.9 Carlsberg (CARLB DC) 52450 53300 32220 10732 -0.8 2.9 29.1 2.3 6.2 2.4 1.22 2.4 2.0 Constellation Brands (STZ US) 3219 3406 1754 4349 -6.6 -1.4 53.8 -3.7 1.7 21.9 2.50 3.5 3.4 Davide Campari (CPR IM) 610 610 491 3543 2.6 11.4 18.6 5.8 15.0 -6.0 2.60 1.9 1.6 Diageo (DGE LN) 1683 1765 1204 52107 -2.2 -4.4 23.5 0.8 -1.4 -2.1 7.51 2.2 1.7 Heineken (HEIA NA) 4223 4598 3205 24322 -4.4 -4.2 18.1 -1.4 -1.2 -6.4 2.53 2.4 3.3 Molson Coors Brewing (TAP US) 4587 4600 3800 6131 -1.7 -0.8 4.0 1.4 2.4 -17.5 1.12 0.8 3.2 Pernod Ricard (RI FP) 8690 9111 5883 23056 -1.3 -1.8 21.3 1.8 1.4 -3.9 2.13 3.8 3.1 Remy Cointreau (RCO FP) 8510 9744 5043 4224 -4.0 -8.8 37.1 -1.0 -5.9 8.7 4.28 0.8 0.6 SABMiller (SAB LN) 2716 2869 2005 53491 -2.8 -5.8 23.7 0.2 -2.8 -2.0 2.69 3.3 2.5 Beverage (10) 7230 7705 4692 283418 -3.3 -2.5 28.1 -0.3 0.6 1.6 2.99 2.5 2.3 Britvic plc (BVIC LN) 368 398 260 1101 2.3 13.7 18.2 5.5 17.4 -6.3 N/A 2.4 2.7 FTSE E300 Beverages (E3BEVG) 2675 2848 1764 -3.0 -3.1 26.1

V A L U A T I O N EPS (c) EPS Gth % Div Yield % Div Cover EV/EBITDA P/E 2011 2012 2013 11-13 2011 2012 2011 2011 2012 2013 2011 2012 2013

C&C (GCC ID) 28 28 31 10.3 2.0 2.3 3.8 8.8 8.1 7.1 13.3 13.2 12.1 Global Sector Anheuser-Busch InBev (ABI BB) 308 360 388 26.0 1.8 2.2 2.6 11.1 10.5 9.3 21.1 18.1 16.7 Carlsberg (CARLB DC) 3369 3763 4098 21.6 1.0 1.1 6.1 8.4 7.7 6.9 15.6 13.9 12.8 Constellation Brands (STZ US) 234 198 264 12.9 0.0 0.0 N/A 10.0 9.8 8.5 13.8 16.3 12.2 Davide Campari (CPR IM) 29 31 36 25.1 1.1 1.3 4.1 12.7 11.9 10.9 21.2 19.7 16.9 Diageo (DGE LN) 94 104 116 23.6 2.6 2.8 2.2 13.5 12.1 10.9 17.9 16.1 14.4 Heineken (HEIA NA) 270 284 328 21.7 1.9 2.1 3.4 8.5 8.7 7.0 15.7 14.9 12.9 Molson Coors Brewing (TAP US) 376 389 406 8.0 2.7 3.0 3.1 7.8 9.5 8.8 12.2 11.8 11.3 Pernod Ricard (RI FP) 453 532 635 40.3 1.7 2.0 3.0 13.2 11.5 10.1 19.2 16.3 13.7 Remy Cointreau (RCO FP) 250 356 418 67.1 2.7 1.7 1.1 19.8 15.6 13.2 34.0 23.9 20.4 SABMiller (SAB LN) 137 148 166 21.3 2.2 2.3 2.3 15.9 13.4 11.8 19.9 18.4 16.4 Beverage (10) 2.0 2.3 2.7 11.8 11.0 9.6 18.8 16.9 15.1 Britvic plc (BVIC LN) 33 27 32 -4.1 4.8 3.1 1.9 7.3 8.1 7.3 11.2 13.8 11.7


29 Davy Research

Food and beverage Sector screens

F O O D - L O W P / E S T O C K S ( X ) F O O D - L O W E V / E B I T D A S T O C K S ( X ) 2012 2013 2012 2013Premier Foods 2.2 Premier Foods 2.0 Fyffes 3.3 Chiquita 2.3 Fyffes 6.0 Total Produce 5.9 Chiquita 3.4 Fyffes 3.6 Total Produce 6.1 Greencore Group 6.1 Total Produce 4.4 Total Produce 4.1 Greencore Group 7.0 Fyffes 6.9 Tyson Foods 4.4 Austevoll 4.2 Dairy Crest 8.2 Austevoll 6.9 Parmalat SpA 5.2 Parmalat SpA 4.4 Tyson Foods 9.2 Continental Farmers Group 7.3 Premier Foods 5.3 Tyson Foods 4.8 Origin Enterprises 9.5 Origin Enterprises 9.0 Robertet 5.3 Premier Foods 4.8 Continental Farmers Group 9.8 CSM NV 9.4 Carrs Milling 5.3 Emmi 4.9 FDP 10.2 Frutarom 9.5 Emmi 5.4 Robertet 4.9 Austevoll 10.4 Dairy Crest 9.5 Austevoll 5.6 Continental Farmers Group 5.1

F O O D - H I G H Y I E L D I N G S T O C K S ( % ) F O O D - L O W P R I C E / B O O K ( X ) 2012 2013 2012 2013Dairy Crest 5.9 Greencore Group 6.2 Premier Foods 0.25 Premier Foods 0.24 Greencore Group 5.3 Dairy Crest 6.1 Continental Farmers Group 0.65 Continental Farmers Group 0.60 CSM NV 5.2 Austevoll 5.6 Austevoll 0.76 Austevoll 0.72 Fyffes 4.9 CSM NV 5.4 FDP 0.80 FDP 0.77 Total Produce 4.3 Fyffes 4.6 Parmalat SpA 0.83 Parmalat SpA 0.80 Tate & Lyle 4.0 Total Produce 4.4 Total Produce 0.85 Total Produce 0.82 Conagra Foods 3.9 Conagra Foods 4.1 ADM 0.94 ADM 0.89 Austevoll 3.9 Tate & Lyle 4.1 Fyffes 0.99 Fyffes 0.92 Nutreco 3.8 Nutreco 4.0 Tyson Foods 1.01 Tyson Foods 0.94 Cranswick 3.8 Cranswick 3.9 CSM NV 1.03 CSM NV 0.99

F O O D - L O W P E G S T O C K S ( X ) F O O D - S H A R E P R I C E M O M E N T U M ( % ) 2012 2013 1 Month 3 MonthsTyson Foods 0.1 K+S 0.2 Krispy Kreme 17.7 Chiquita 35.0 K+S 0.2 Koninklijke DSM 0.4 Total Produce 14.6 Origin Enterprises 34.0 Koninklijke DSM 0.5 Carrs Milling 0.6 Glanbia 12.2 Glanbia 29.9 Carrs Milling 0.6 Nutreco 0.6 Fyffes 11.1 Krispy Kreme 27.0 Nutreco 0.6 Frutarom 0.6 Origin Enterprises 9.6 Fyffes 23.5 Robertet 0.7 Robertet 0.6 Chiquita 9.3 K+S 23.4 Fyffes 0.7 Glanbia 0.7 CSM NV 8.8 Austevoll 16.9 Frutarom 0.7 Fyffes 0.8 Continental Farmers Group 7.1 Carrs Milling 16.2 Glanbia 0.7 ARYZTA 0.8 Ralcorp Holdings 6.0 Total Produce 16.1 ARYZTA 0.9 Panera Bread 1.0 Carrs Milling 4.9 Parmalat SpA 16.1

F O O D - L O W D E B T / E B I T D A ( X ) F O O D - L O W D E B T / M A R K E T C A P ( % ) 2012 2013 2012 2013

Parmalat SpA -2.0 Parmalat SpA -1.8 Parmalat SpA -27.9 Parmalat SpA -28.8 Panera Bread -0.9 Panera Bread -1.1 Panera Bread -6.5 Panera Bread -9.4 PZ Cussons -0.1 PZ Cussons -0.3 PZ Cussons -1.2 PZ Cussons -2.9 Carrs Milling 0.0 Syngenta AG 0.1 Carrs Milling 0.8 Syngenta AG 1.0 K+S 0.1 Saputo 0.2 K+S 1.2 Saputo 1.7 Continental Farmers Group 0.3 Fyffes 0.2 Syngenta AG 3.0 Fyffes 4.2 Syngenta AG 0.3 K+S 0.3 Saputo 3.5 K+S 4.5 Saputo 0.3 Cranswick 0.3 Continental Farmers Group 4.6 Cranswick 4.7 Cranswick 0.3 Robertet 0.3 Cranswick 5.6 Origin Enterprises 5.9 Fyffes 0.4 Origin Enterprises 0.5 Nestle SA 6.9 Robertet 6.3

B E V E R A G E - L O W P / E S T O C K S ( X ) B E V E R A G E - L O W P R I C E / B O O K ( X ) 2012 2013 2012 2013Molson Coors Brewing 11.8 Molson Coors Brewing 11.3 Molson Coors Brewing 1.03 Molson Coors Brewing 0.98 C&C 13.2 Britvic plc 11.7 Carlsberg 1.09 Carlsberg 0.99 Britvic plc 13.8 C&C 12.1 C&C 1.59 C&C 1.46 Carlsberg 13.9 Constellation Brands 12.2 Pernod Ricard 1.96 Pernod Ricard 1.79 Heineken 14.9 Carlsberg 12.8 Heineken 2.23 Constellation Brands 1.96 Diageo 16.1 Heineken 12.9 Constellation Brands 2.32 Heineken 1.98 Constellation Brands 16.3 Pernod Ricard 13.7 Davide Campari 2.36 Davide Campari 2.12 Pernod Ricard 16.3 Diageo 14.4 SABMiller 2.59 SABMiller 2.39 Anheuser-Busch InBev 18.1 SABMiller 16.4 Anheuser-Busch InBev 3.17 Anheuser-Busch InBev 2.80 SABMiller 18.4 Anheuser-Busch InBev 16.7 Diageo 5.10 Diageo 3.81


30 Davy Research

Beverage charts

U S D I S T I L L E D S P I R I T S V O L U M E S G R O W T H M A T Y O Y ( % ) U S D I S T I L L E D S P I R I T S V O L U M E S G R O W T H Y O Y ( % )

D I A G E O A N D P E R N O D U S S P I R I T S V O L G T H M A T Y O Y ( % ) D I A G E O A N D P E R N O D U S S P I R I T S V O L G T H Y O Y ( % )

T O P S I X P R O D U C E R S V O L G T H M A T Y O Y ( % ) T O P S I X P R O D U C E R S V O L G T H Y O Y ( % )

U S C O N S U M E R S P E N D I N G Y O Y ( % ) U S S A V I N G S R A T E A S A % O F D I S P O S A B L E I N C O M E


31 Davy Research

Beverage charts

L U X U R Y I N D E X ( D J L U X ) R E L S & P 5 0 0 I N D E X C H I N E S E C O G N A C S H I P M E N T S Y O Y ( % )

N O R T H A M E R I C A I A T A R P K Y O Y G R O W T H ( % ) E U R O P E I A T A R P K Y O Y G R O W T H ( % )

E U R O P E A N B E E R C P I Y O Y ( % ) E U R O P E A N M A L T E D B A R L E Y P R I C E S Y O Y ( % )

R U S S I A N I N D U S T R I A L P R O D U C T I O N F O R B E E R Y O Y ( % ) U K R P I O F F - T R A D E B E E R V S R P I X Y O Y ( % )

C O M P A N Y A N A L Y S I S

32 Davy Research

ARYZTA

Analyst: John O'Reilly Xetra: YZA Email: john.o'[email protected] Bloomberg: YZA ID Phone: +353 1 6148915 RIC: ARYN.I Sector: Speciality baking www.aryzta.com

Price (c) Shares (m) Mkt. Cap (€m) E.V. (€m) Mkt. Cap. / EV (%) Mkt. Weight (%) Free Float (%) Daily No. Shares Traded (m) Daily Value Traded (€m) 4024 88.0 3542.2 4819.1 73.5 7.1 98.3 0.239 9.352

SUMMARY ACCOUNTS Jul09 Jul10 Jul11 Jul12F Jul13F I N C O M E S T A T E M E N T ( € M )

Revenue 3220.5 3009.7 3876.9 4068.6 4234.9 EBITDA 340.6 339.9 485.1 514.9 557.7 Depreciation 60.2 66.9 88.4 87.1 88.7 Amortisation of intangibles 46.3 50.7 94.2 99.4 103.3 Operating profit 234.2 222.2 302.5 328.4 365.7 Other income from operations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Share of associate / JV after-tax profits 17.5 31.6 19.5 16.9 18.9 PBIT before exceptionals 251.7 253.9 322.0 345.3 384.6 Group net interest -50.7 -51.5 -67.9 -65.1 -56.0 Other finance costs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total finance costs -50.7 -51.5 -67.9 -65.1 -56.0 Exceptionals -157.2 -4.6 -10.0 -50.0 -50.0 PBT 43.9 197.7 244.0 230.2 278.6 Tax -2.9 -29.6 -15.6 -36.5 -42.8 Minorities (incl. pref. divs.) 13.0 -16.4 -15.8 -16.2 -17.2 Earnings (basic) 54.0 151.7 212.7 177.4 218.6 Average no. of shares (m) - basic 78.4 78.9 82.8 86.3 88.4 Average no. of shares (m) - diluted 78.6 79.4 83.9 86.3 88.4 P E R S H A R E D A T A ( C )

EPS Basic 68.9 192.2 256.8 205.6 247.3 EPS Diluted (Adj) 234.7 244.0 310.1 338.3 380.3 Cash EPS (Diluted) 311.2 328.2 415.4 439.2 480.6 Dividend 35.2 37.0 46.5 49.5 52.8 NBV 1672.6 2044.8 2235.8 2287.2 2427.3 NBV (incl. amortisation of intangibles) 1807.0 2243.5 2541.0 2693.3 2940.6 C A S H F L O W ( € M )

EBITDA 340.6 339.9 485.1 514.9 557.7 Change in working capital 27.0 11.5 -27.1 -26.7 -26.0 Share-based payments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other operating cashflows -57.8 14.8 0.4 -49.8 -49.6 Cash generated from operations 309.8 366.2 458.3 438.4 482.1 Net capital expenditure -79.0 -45.9 -73.8 -150.1 -150.6 Operating cashflow 230.8 320.2 384.5 288.3 331.5 Net interest -51.6 -45.2 -72.1 -80.0 -74.0 Tax -33.4 -30.4 -55.1 -35.5 -41.6 Dividends from associates 23.0 22.4 11.6 18.1 18.6 Dividends to minorities 0.0 -5.8 0.0 -5.6 -5.6 Free cash flow 168.8 261.2 268.9 185.3 228.9 Dividends to shareholders 0.0 -27.9 -30.8 -41.3 -41.7 Acquisitions & investments -137.8 -872.7 -346.0 -92.0 0.0 Business disposals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Share Issues / (Buybacks) -47.2 115.0 285.1 140.9 0.0 Translation differences -0.9 7.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other 72.9 -39.2 2.8 -52.9 -5.0 Change in net cash / debt 55.9 -555.8 179.9 139.9 182.2 B A L A N C E S H E E T ( € M )

Property, plant & equipment 664.5 945.1 939.9 983.2 1026.8 Intangible assets 1498.4 2264.4 2651.0 2581.7 2508.6 Investments in associates / jv's 202.3 183.5 156.2 191.9 191.9 Working capital -59.3 -124.4 -128.2 -101.7 -76.2 Other 0.0 0.0 35.6 0.0 0.0 Capital Employed 2305.9 3268.7 3654.6 3655.1 3651.0 Financed by Equity capital & reserves 1320.4 1614.2 1839.1 1973.8 2145.7 Minority interests 47.6 59.6 72.4 84.2 96.8 Preference shares 0.0 0.0 285.0 285.0 285.0 Net Debt/(Cash) 671.7 1227.5 1047.6 907.7 725.4 Deferred consideration/debt-related 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Retirement benefit obligations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Net deferred tax 176.5 294.1 309.4 309.4 309.4 Other long-term liabilities 89.8 73.2 101.1 94.9 88.7 Capital Employed 2305.9 3268.7 3654.6 3655.1 3651.0 Intangibles amortised 106.1 156.8 251.1 350.5 453.8 Capital employed inc. intangibles 2412.0 3425.5 3905.6 4005.5 4104.8 Invested capital inc. intangibles 2145.8 3058.2 3495.2 3601.2 3706.7

DIVISIONAL ANALYSIS Jul11 Jul12F Jul13F Jul11 Jul12F Jul13F Revenue (€m) Operating Profits (€m)

Origin 1299.5 1244.9 1257.4 71.0 65.1 65.8 IAWS Food 2577.4 2823.7 2977.5 322.3 362.7 403.1 Total 3876.9 4068.6 4234.9 393.3 427.8 468.9

CALENDAR Date Ex-Div Interims 12-03-12 Finals 24-09-12 27-01-12 AGM 11-12-12 Updated 22-03-12

VALUATION Jul11 Jul12F Jul13F Dec11 Dec12F Dec13F Rel to Sector

P/E 13.0 11.9 10.6 0.5 0.7 0.7 Dividend Yield (%) 1.2 1.2 1.3 0.6 0.6 0.6 Free Cash Flow Yield (pre divs) (%) 7.6 5.2 6.5 Price / Book 1.80 1.76 1.66 0.9 0.9 0.9 EV / Revenue 1.18 1.14 1.05 EV / EBITDA 9.4 9.0 8.0 EV / EBITA 11.5 10.8 9.5 EV / Operating Cashflow 11.9 16.0 13.4 EV / Invested Capital 1.35 1.34 1.25 PEG (Hist P/E/4yr gwth) 1.01

PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 Yr Absolute 1.4 0.6 9.5 10.4 7.3 20.6 Rel to ISEQ 0.1 -2.8 -0.3 9.6 -5.7 -9.9 Rel to E300 0.2 -1.1 -3.8 8.2 -4.1 -1.7 Rel to E300 Food Producers 3.6 5.0 6.5 6.8 0.6 1.8

PRICE AND P/E HISTORY Price Hist P/E High Low Yr End High Low Average

2012 4060 3350 13.1 10.8 12.1 2011 3895 3132 3749 16.0 10.7 13.7 2010 3500 2582 3499 14.5 11.0 12.9 2009 2790 1617 2570 13.7 8.0 10.9 2008 3800 1879 2300 20.8 9.3 15.1 2007 3920 2790 3010 24.0 15.3 19.7

KEY RATIOS Jul09 Jul10 Jul11 Jul12F Jul13F G R O W T H

EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 16.1 4.0 27.1 9.1 12.4 Dividend (%) N/A 5.1 25.7 6.5 6.7 Revenue (%) 2.8 -6.5 28.8 4.9 4.1 EBITDA (%) 12.4 -0.2 42.7 6.1 8.3 P R O F I T A B I L I T Y / A C T I V I T Y

EBITDA margin (%) 10.6 11.3 12.5 12.7 13.2 EBITA margin (%) 8.7 9.1 10.2 10.5 11.1 Revenue / Capital Employed (x) 1.49 1.10 1.11 1.08 1.10 R E T U R N

ROCE (before tax, ex. invs) (%) 13.0 10.0 11.3 11.3 12.1 ROE (after tax) (%) 13.7 12.1 14.1 13.9 14.3 Ret. on Inv. Cap. (after tax) (%) 9.8 10.3 11.5 11.3 12.0 WACC (%) 6.7 6.0 5.7 5.4 4.9 F I N A N C I A L / G E N E R A L

EBITDA Int. Cover (x) 6.7 6.6 7.1 7.9 10.0 Group Interest Cover (x) 5.0 4.9 4.7 5.3 6.9 Debt / EBITDA (x) 2.0 3.6 2.2 1.8 1.3 Debt / Equity (%) 49.1 73.3 54.8 44.1 32.4 Debt / Free Cash Flow (x) 4.0 4.7 3.9 4.9 3.2 Avg. Cost of Debt (before tax) (%) 7.2 5.4 4.8 5.2 5.1 Ret. benefits deficit / market cap (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Dividend Cover (x) 6.7 6.6 6.7 6.8 7.2 Working Capital / Revenue (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Net Capex / Depreciation (%) 131.3 68.7 83.5 172.3 169.8 Tax rate (%) (unadjusted) 6.5 15.0 6.4 15.9 15.4

CAGR(%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS % Revenue (%) 20.0 11.9 Invesco 10.0 EBITDA (%) 28.3 18.2 Fidelity International Limited 4.8 EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 13.7 15.0 Och-Ziff Capital Management Group 3.1 Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) 15.0 13.9 Blackrock 3.0 Dividend (%) 11.5 13.0 Fidelity Management and Research 3.0 TSR 7.9 11.2


33 Davy Research

Associated British Foods

Analyst: Jack Gorman/John O'Reilly Email: [email protected]/[email protected] Bloomberg: ABF LN Phone: +353 1 6148926/+353 1 6148915 RIC: ABF.L Sector: Sweeteners www.abf.co.uk

Price (p) Shares (m) Mkt. Cap (£m) E.V. (£m) Mkt. Cap. / EV (%) Free Float (%) Daily No. Shares Traded (m) Daily Value Traded (£m) 1275 791.7 10093.8 11807.8 85.5 44.4 0.899 11.766

SUMMARY ACCOUNTS Sep09 Sep10 Sep11 Sep12F Sep13F I N C O M E S T A T E M E N T ( £ M )

Revenue 9255.0 10167.0 11065.0 12087.0 12823.0 EBITDA 1003.0 1225.0 1213.0 1372.0 1444.0 Depreciation 290.0 324.0 317.0 325.0 330.0 Amortisation of intangibles 85.0 89.0 96.0 99.0 99.0 Operating profit 628.0 812.0 800.0 948.0 1015.0 Other income from operations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Share of associate / JV after-tax profits 10.0 16.0 37.0 40.0 40.0 PBIT before exceptionals 638.0 828.0 837.0 988.0 1055.0 Group net interest -78.0 -76.0 -92.0 -104.0 -95.0 Other finance costs 13.0 -8.0 7.0 0.0 0.0 Total finance costs -65.0 -84.0 -85.0 -104.0 -95.0 Exceptionals -78.0 19.0 5.0 0.0 0.0 PBT 495.0 763.0 757.0 884.0 960.0 Tax -112.0 -194.0 -180.0 -222.6 -240.0 Minorities (incl. pref. divs.) -24.0 -23.0 -36.0 -32.6 -36.6 Earnings (basic) 359.0 546.0 541.0 628.8 683.4 Average no. of shares (m) - basic 789.0 788.0 788.0 788.0 788.0 Average no. of shares (m) - diluted 789.0 788.0 788.0 788.0 788.0 P E R S H A R E D A T A ( P )

EPS Basic 45.5 69.3 68.7 79.8 86.7 EPS Diluted (Adj) 57.7 72.2 74.0 86.3 93.2 Cash EPS (Diluted) 94.4 113.3 114.2 127.5 135.1 Dividend 21.0 23.8 24.8 26.8 28.1 NBV 601.8 671.7 729.4 783.9 843.4 NBV (incl. amortisation of intangibles) 645.9 727.2 797.1 864.1 936.2 C A S H F L O W ( £ M )

EBITDA 1003.0 1225.0 1213.0 1372.0 1444.0 Change in working capital 117.0 193.0 -199.0 -67.0 -68.0 Share-based payments 0.0 11.0 8.0 12.0 12.0 Other operating cashflows -152.0 -102.0 -116.0 -31.0 -31.0 Cash generated from operations 968.0 1327.0 906.0 1286.0 1357.0 Net capital expenditure -526.0 -667.0 -776.0 -725.0 -769.0 Operating cashflow 442.0 660.0 130.0 561.0 588.0 Net interest -77.0 -73.0 -88.0 -115.0 -105.0 Tax -135.0 -155.0 -156.0 -221.0 -240.0 Dividends from associates 4.0 6.0 9.0 6.0 6.0 Dividends to minorities -23.0 -29.0 -22.0 -24.0 -27.0 Free cash flow 211.0 409.0 -127.0 207.0 222.0 Dividends to shareholders -161.0 -171.0 -190.0 -200.0 -214.0 Acquisitions & investments -306.0 -82.0 -101.0 0.0 0.0 Business disposals 145.0 4.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 Share Issues / (Buybacks) 9.0 109.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Translation differences -31.0 -19.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 Other -75.0 -67.0 -57.0 0.0 0.0 Change in net cash / debt -208.0 183.0 -469.0 7.0 8.0 B A L A N C E S H E E T ( £ M )

Property, plant & equipment 3519.0 3941.0 4465.0 4865.0 5305.0 Intangible assets 1913.0 1925.0 1893.0 1807.0 1722.0 Investments in associates / jv's 154.0 159.0 194.0 194.0 194.0 Working capital 970.0 826.0 1057.0 1123.0 1190.0 Other 10.0 152.0 254.0 305.0 354.0 Capital Employed 6566.0 7003.0 7863.0 8294.0 8765.0 Financed by Equity capital & reserves 4748.0 5293.0 5748.0 6177.0 6646.0 Minority interests 328.0 451.0 427.0 436.0 446.0 Preference shares 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Net Debt/(Cash) 999.0 816.0 1285.0 1278.0 1270.0 Deferred consideration/debt-related 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Retirement benefit obligations 106.0 99.0 44.0 44.0 44.0 Net deferred tax 212.0 238.0 254.0 254.0 254.0 Other long-term liabilities 173.0 106.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 Capital Employed 6566.0 7003.0 7863.0 8294.0 8765.0 Intangibles amortised 348.0 437.0 533.0 632.0 731.0 Capital employed inc. intangibles 6914.0 7440.0 8396.0 8926.0 9496.0 Invested capital inc. intangibles 6423.0 6997.0 7993.0 8523.0 9093.0

DIVISIONAL ANALYSIS Sep11 Sep12F Sep13F Sep11 Sep12F Sep13F Revenue (£m) Adj. Operating Profits (£m)

Grocery 3638.0 3763.0 3895.0 248.0 192.0 252.0 Sugar 2134.0 2488.0 2669.0 315.0 495.0 441.0 Agriculture 1127.0 1247.0 1279.0 40.0 37.0 40.0 Ingredients 1123.0 1160.0 1197.0 56.0 46.0 60.0 Retail 3043.0 3429.0 3783.0 309.0 348.0 394.0 Central costs 0.0 0.0 0.0 -48.0 -44.0 -46.0 Total 11065.0 12087.0 12823.0 920.0 1074.0 1141.0

CALENDAR Date Ex-Div Interims 24-04-12 06-06-12 Finals 06-11-12 07-12-11 AGM 09-12-11 Updated 12-07-12

VALUATION Sep11 Sep12F Sep13F Dec11 Dec12F Dec13F Rel to Sector

P/E 17.2 14.8 13.7 1.4 1.2 1.2 Dividend Yield (%) 1.9 2.1 2.2 0.8 0.8 0.8 Free Cash Flow Yield (pre divs) (%) N/A 2.1 2.2 Price / Book 1.75 1.63 1.51 1.3 1.2 1.2 EV / Revenue 1.05 0.96 0.91 EV / EBITDA 9.5 8.5 8.0 EV / EBITA 12.9 11.1 10.4 EV / Operating Cashflow N/A 20.7 19.8 EV / Invested Capital 1.47 1.39 1.30 PEG (Hist P/E/4yr gwth) 1.35

PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 Yr Absolute -2.4 -0.8 5.4 6.3 15.2 19.6 Rel to FTSE 100 -4.4 -1.6 -2.6 6.9 8.5 5.7 Rel to E300 -4.6 -5.2 -7.0 7.1 6.3 4.8 Rel to Sector -1.3 -0.7 9.6 10.8 13.8 12.3


2012 1336 1105 18.1 14.9 16.5 2011 1164 940 1107 16.1 13.0 14.7 2010 1182 820 1181 18.9 14.2 16.8 2009 866 613 822 15.8 11.2 13.6 2008 904 612 730 17.1 11.2 14.5 2007 949 773 900 18.6 15.2 16.9

KEY RATIOS Sep09 Sep10 Sep11 Sep12F Sep13F G R O W T H

EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 5.0 25.2 2.5 16.6 8.0 Dividend (%) 3.7 13.3 4.0 8.1 5.0 Revenue (%) 12.4 9.9 8.8 9.2 6.1 EBITDA (%) 13.3 22.1 -1.0 13.1 5.2 P R O F I T A B I L I T Y / A C T I V I T Y



EBITDA Int. Cover (x) 12.9 16.1 13.2 13.2 15.2 Group Interest Cover (x) 8.2 10.9 9.1 9.5 11.1 Debt / EBITDA (x) 1.0 0.7 1.1 0.9 0.9 Debt / Equity (%) 19.7 14.2 20.8 19.3 17.9 Debt / Free Cash Flow (x) 4.7 2.0 N/A 6.2 5.7 Avg. Cost of Debt (before tax) (%) 8.7 8.4 8.8 8.1 7.5 Ret. benefits deficit / market cap (%) 1.6 1.2 0.5 0.4 0.4 Dividend Cover (x) 2.7 3.0 3.0 3.2 3.3 Working Capital / Revenue (%) 10.5 8.1 9.6 9.3 9.3 Net Capex / Depreciation (%) 181.4 205.9 244.8 223.1 233.0 Tax rate (%) (unadjusted) 22.6 25.4 23.8 25.2 25.0

CAGR(%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS % Revenue (%) 13.0 N/A Wittington Investments 54.5 EBITDA (%) 10.8 N/A Howard Investments 3.6 EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 7.8 N/A The Capital Group Companies 3.1 Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) 9.3 N/A Dividend (%) 5.7 N/A TSR 12.8 9.9


34 Davy Research

Britvic plc

Analyst: Barry Gallagher Email: [email protected] Bloomberg: BVIC LN Phone: +353 1 6149194 RIC: BVIC.L Sector: Beverage www.britvic.com


SUMMARY ACCOUNTS Sep09 Sep10 Sep11 Sep12F Sep13F I N C O M E S T A T E M E N T ( £ M )

Revenue 978.8 1121.4 1290.4 1269.6 1316.6 EBITDA 150.5 181.4 185.7 166.6 179.9 Depreciation 31.8 40.0 35.6 35.6 35.6 Amortisation of intangibles 8.6 9.0 15.1 15.1 15.1 Operating profit 110.1 132.4 135.0 115.9 129.2 Other income from operations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Share of associate / JV after-tax profits 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 PBIT before exceptionals 110.1 132.4 135.0 115.9 129.2 Group net interest -23.6 -23.5 -29.9 -31.0 -27.9 Other finance costs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total finance costs -23.6 -23.5 -29.9 -31.0 -27.9 Exceptionals -17.4 0.0 -19.5 0.0 0.0 PBT 69.1 108.9 85.6 84.9 101.3 Tax -22.3 -28.2 -27.2 -21.6 -25.8 Minorities (incl. pref. divs.) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Earnings (basic) 46.8 80.7 58.4 63.3 75.5 Average no. of shares (m) - basic 214.9 225.3 240.4 241.4 241.4 Average no. of shares (m) - diluted 220.9 231.3 246.4 249.0 249.0 P E R S H A R E D A T A ( P )

EPS Basic 21.8 35.8 24.3 26.2 31.3 EPS Diluted (Adj) 29.1 38.8 32.9 26.6 31.5 Cash EPS (Diluted) 43.5 56.1 47.3 40.9 45.8 Dividend 15.0 17.6 17.7 11.4 15.2 NBV N/A 16.9 9.1 25.3 42.7 NBV (incl. amortisation of intangibles) 19.5 39.9 36.9 60.0 83.6 C A S H F L O W ( £ M )

EBITDA 150.5 181.4 185.7 166.6 179.9 Change in working capital 13.8 -15.0 -13.5 -12.5 6.1 Share-based payments 6.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other operating cashflows -21.4 0.0 0.0 -7.5 -7.5 Cash generated from operations 149.8 166.4 172.2 146.6 178.5 Net capital expenditure -40.1 -57.2 -49.0 -50.0 -55.0 Operating cashflow 109.7 109.2 123.2 96.6 123.5 Net interest -32.5 -23.5 -26.9 -29.5 -26.5 Tax -18.9 -28.2 -25.6 -20.5 -24.6 Dividends from associates 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Dividends to minorities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Free cash flow 58.3 57.5 70.7 46.6 72.4 Dividends to shareholders -27.8 -39.7 -40.3 -27.6 -36.6 Acquisitions & investments -2.4 -200.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 Business disposals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Share Issues / (Buybacks) -3.3 94.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 Translation differences -4.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other 1.8 -1.5 -25.7 -17.0 -6.8 Change in net cash / debt 22.0 -90.3 4.7 2.0 29.0 B A L A N C E S H E E T ( £ M )

Property, plant & equipment 226.0 276.0 243.8 275.2 301.4 Intangible assets 293.1 453.1 439.4 424.3 409.2 Investments in associates / jv's 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Working capital -58.4 -44.0 -30.9 -9.7 -6.4 Other 58.8 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Capital Employed 519.5 695.1 652.3 689.8 704.2 Financed by Equity capital & reserves -2.5 39.0 22.5 61.2 103.1 Minority interests 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Preference shares 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Net Debt/(Cash) 366.4 456.7 452.0 450.0 421.0 Deferred consideration/debt-related 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Retirement benefit obligations 85.1 85.1 45.1 45.1 45.1 Net deferred tax 25.6 25.6 23.0 23.0 23.0 Other long-term liabilities 44.9 88.7 109.7 110.6 112.0 Capital Employed 519.5 695.1 652.3 689.8 704.2 Intangibles amortised 44.4 53.4 68.5 83.6 98.7 Capital employed inc. intangibles 563.9 748.5 720.8 773.4 802.9 Invested capital inc. intangibles 408.3 549.1 543.0 594.8 622.8

GEOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS Sep11 Sep12F Sep13F Sep11 Sep12F Sep13F Revenue (£m) Operating Profits (£m)

GB and International 882.9 870.1 914.9 112.0 94.9 106.9 Ireland 162.8 142.6 134.4 6.0 5.0 5.5 France 244.7 256.9 267.3 17.0 16.0 17.5 Total 1290.4 1269.6 1316.6 135.0 115.9 129.9



P/E 11.2 13.8 11.7 0.6 0.8 0.8 Dividend Yield (%) 4.8 3.1 4.1 2.4 1.4 1.6 Free Cash Flow Yield (pre divs) (%) 7.9 5.2 8.1 Price / Book N/A 14.53 8.63 13.5 5.5 3.7 EV / Revenue 1.05 1.06 1.00 EV / EBITDA 7.3 8.1 7.3 EV / EBITA 9.1 10.2 9.1 EV / Operating Cashflow 11.0 13.9 10.6 EV / Invested Capital 2.50 2.26 2.11 PEG (Hist P/E/4yr gwth) 5.45

PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 Yr Absolute 3.5 17.1 18.0 -4.8 14.5 20.4 Rel to FTSE 250 0.8 11.2 3.0 -7.7 -4.5 0.4 Rel to E300 1.1 11.9 4.1 -4.1 5.6 5.5 Rel to E300 Beverages 5.5 17.4 6.9 -11.4 -6.3 -12.4


2012 398 260 12.1 7.9 10.5 2011 477 290 322 16.4 7.5 9.9 2010 518 398 473 17.3 12.7 15.9 2009 408 207 408 N/A N/A N/A 2008 354 166 264 N/A N/A N/A 2007 399 285 346 N/A N/A N/A

KEY RATIOS Sep09 Sep10 Sep11 Sep12F Sep13F G R O W T H

EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 19.5 33.4 -15.2 -19.0 18.4 Dividend (%) 19.0 17.3 0.6 -35.6 33.3 Revenue (%) 5.6 14.6 15.1 -1.6 3.7 EBITDA (%) 5.3 20.5 2.4 -10.3 8.0 P R O F I T A B I L I T Y / A C T I V I T Y



EBITDA Int. Cover (x) 6.4 7.7 6.2 5.4 6.4 Group Interest Cover (x) 4.7 5.6 4.5 3.7 4.6 Debt / EBITDA (x) 2.4 2.5 2.4 2.7 2.3 Debt / Equity (%) N/A N/A N/A 735.6 408.4 Debt / Free Cash Flow (x) 6.3 7.9 6.4 9.7 5.8 Avg. Cost of Debt (before tax) (%) 6.3 5.7 6.6 6.9 6.4 Ret. benefits deficit / market cap (%) 11.2 7.6 5.8 5.1 5.1 Dividend Cover (x) 1.9 2.2 1.9 2.3 2.1 Working Capital / Revenue (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Net Capex / Depreciation (%) 126.1 143.0 137.6 140.4 154.5 Tax rate (%) (unadjusted) 32.3 25.9 31.8 25.4 25.5

CAGR(%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS % Revenue (%) 13.7 N/A Route One Fund 6.2 EBITDA (%) 8.9 N/A Standard Life Investment 4.9 EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 12.5 N/A Pepsico 4.4 Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) 5.2 N/A Dividend (%) 12.1 N/A TSR 7.8 N/A


35 Davy Research

C&C

Analyst: Barry Gallagher Xetra: GCC Email: [email protected] Bloomberg: GCC ID Phone: +353 1 6149194 RIC: GCC.I Sector: Beverage www.candcgroupplc.com


SUMMARY ACCOUNTS Feb10 Feb11 Feb12 Feb13F Feb14F I N C O M E S T A T E M E N T ( € M )

Revenue 568.7 529.6 480.8 488.4 514.4 EBITDA 104.5 121.8 131.6 133.8 141.0 Depreciation 15.0 21.3 20.3 21.8 21.8 Amortisation of intangibles 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Operating profit 89.5 100.5 111.3 112.0 119.2 Other income from operations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Share of associate / JV after-tax profits 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 PBIT before exceptionals 89.5 100.5 111.3 112.0 119.2 Group net interest -7.2 -9.4 -5.1 -4.0 0.0 Other finance costs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total finance costs -7.2 -9.4 -5.1 -4.0 0.0 Exceptionals -3.5 -9.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 PBT 78.8 82.0 106.2 108.0 119.2 Tax -8.9 -11.1 -13.8 -15.1 -17.3 Minorities (incl. pref. divs.) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Earnings (basic) 69.9 70.9 92.4 92.8 102.0 Average no. of shares (m) - basic 316.8 321.6 323.0 321.3 321.3 Average no. of shares (m) - diluted 323.8 330.1 333.6 333.8 333.8 P E R S H A R E D A T A ( C )


EBITDA 104.5 121.8 131.6 133.8 141.0 Change in working capital 33.7 31.5 8.0 0.0 2.0 Share-based payments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other operating cashflows 1.8 4.5 -0.2 0.0 0.0 Cash generated from operations 140.0 157.8 139.4 133.8 143.0 Net capital expenditure -5.4 -21.1 -17.7 -15.0 -15.0 Operating cashflow 134.6 136.7 121.7 118.8 128.0 Net interest -7.0 -8.0 -6.0 -4.0 0.0 Tax -4.7 -8.4 -5.5 -12.1 -13.8 Dividends from associates 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Dividends to minorities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Free cash flow 122.9 120.3 110.2 102.7 114.2 Dividends to shareholders -22.0 -12.1 -18.5 -27.9 -30.6 Acquisitions & investments -224.5 263.9 -11.9 -4.0 0.0 Business disposals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Share Issues / (Buybacks) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Translation differences 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other -15.1 -13.5 -5.2 0.0 -0.0 Change in net cash / debt -138.7 358.6 74.6 70.8 83.6 B A L A N C E S H E E T ( € M )

Property, plant & equipment 187.2 187.2 181.8 175.0 168.2 Intangible assets 507.7 466.3 484.9 488.5 483.9 Investments in associates / jv's 32.1 20.0 19.5 19.5 19.5 Working capital 16.5 7.1 -2.4 -1.1 0.3 Other 0.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 Capital Employed 743.5 681.0 683.9 681.9 671.9 Financed by Equity capital & reserves 329.4 643.7 714.2 779.2 850.6 Minority interests 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Preference shares 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Net Debt/(Cash) 364.9 6.3 -68.3 -139.1 -222.7 Deferred consideration/debt-related 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Retirement benefit obligations 21.2 15.3 15.1 15.1 15.1 Net deferred tax 0.0 -2.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 Other long-term liabilities 28.0 18.5 22.2 26.0 28.3 Capital Employed 743.5 681.0 683.9 681.8 671.9 Intangibles amortised 63.1 63.1 63.1 63.1 63.1 Capital employed inc. intangibles 806.6 744.1 747.0 744.9 735.0 Invested capital inc. intangibles 757.4 713.1 709.0 703.2 690.9

DIVISIONAL ANALYSIS Feb12 Feb13F Feb14F Feb12 Feb13F Feb14F Revenue (€m) Op. Profit (pre am.) (€m)

Irish Cider 91.5 82.3 80.7 42.2 39.3 37.0 UK and International Cider 215.0 216.9 235.0 39.6 38.8 45.1 Distribution 74.0 80.0 85.0 7.1 8.0 8.5 Tennent's 100.0 109.2 113.7 22.3 25.9 28.6 Total 480.5 488.4 514.4 111.2 112.0 119.3


VALUATION Feb12 Feb13F Feb14F Dec11 Dec12F Dec13F Rel to Sector


PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 Yr Absolute -1.6 10.6 10.0 -3.2 28.4 22.5 Rel to ISEQ -2.8 6.9 0.1 -3.9 12.8 -8.5 Rel to E300 -2.7 8.8 -3.4 -5.1 14.8 -0.1 Rel to E300 Beverages 1.5 14.2 -0.8 -12.3 1.8 -17.0


2012 393 281 16.2 11.4 13.6 2011 369 270 287 15.9 11.1 13.8 2010 360 266 338 16.3 12.1 14.1 2009 320 78 301 14.5 2.6 8.4 2008 540 102 145 17.7 3.4 8.4 2007 1390 367 410 46.7 6.8 22.5

KEY RATIOS Feb10 Feb11 Feb12 Feb13F Feb14F G R O W T H

EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 2.3 6.9 14.3 0.4 9.8 Dividend (%) -33.3 10.0 9.1 15.8 9.8 Revenue (%) 10.5 -6.9 -9.2 1.6 5.3 EBITDA (%) -4.7 16.6 8.0 1.6 5.5 P R O F I T A B I L I T Y / A C T I V I T Y


ROCE (before tax, ex. invs) (%) 13.0 13.4 15.3 15.4 16.6 ROE (after tax) (%) 20.8 14.6 12.5 11.5 11.6 Ret. on Inv. Cap. (after tax) (%) 12.3 12.0 13.6 13.6 14.6 WACC (%) 7.3 8.7 N/A N/A N/A F I N A N C I A L / G E N E R A L

EBITDA Int. Cover (x) 14.5 13.0 25.8 33.4 N/A Group Interest Cover (x) 12.4 10.7 21.8 28.0 N/A Debt / EBITDA (x) 3.5 0.1 N/A N/A N/A Debt / Equity (%) 110.8 1.0 N/A N/A N/A Debt / Free Cash Flow (x) 3.0 0.1 N/A N/A N/A Avg. Cost of Debt (before tax) (%) 2.4 5.1 N/A N/A N/A Ret. benefits deficit / market cap (%) 2.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 Dividend Cover (x) 3.8 3.7 3.8 3.3 3.3 Working Capital / Revenue (%) 2.9 1.3 N/A N/A 0.1 Net Capex / Depreciation (%) 36.0 99.1 87.2 68.8 68.8 Tax rate (%) (unadjusted) 11.3 13.5 13.0 14.0 14.5

CAGR(%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS % Revenue (%) -13.3 -4.6 Invesco 9.0 EBITDA (%) -10.6 -1.5 Independent Franchise Partners 7.0 EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) -12.5 6.7 MassMutual 6.0 Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) -10.7 5.5 Southeastern Asset Management 5.4 Dividend (%) -23.2 N/A F&C Asset Management 4.4


36 Davy Research

Carlsberg

Analyst: Barry Gallagher Email: [email protected] Bloomberg: CARLB DC Phone: +353 1 6149194 RIC: CARLb.CO Sector: Beverage www.carlsberggroup.com

Price (dkk) Shares (m) Mkt. Cap (DKK) E.V. (DKK) Mkt. Cap. / EV (%) Free Float (%) Daily No. Shares Traded (m) Daily Value Traded (DKK) 52450 152.6 80015.6 113125 70.7 82.0 0.387 190.235

SUMMARY ACCOUNTS Dec09 Dec10 Dec11 Dec12F Dec13F I N C O M E S T A T E M E N T ( D K K )

Revenue 59382.0 60054.0 63561.0 66238.2 68940.0 EBITDA 13169.0 14214.9 13600.0 13988.7 14914.0 Depreciation 3779.0 3966.0 3784.0 3850.0 3900.0 Amortisation of intangibles 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Operating profit 9390.0 10248.9 9816.0 10138.7 11014.0 Other income from operations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Share of associate / JV after-tax profits 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 PBIT before exceptionals 9390.0 10248.9 9816.0 10138.7 11014.0 Group net interest -2990.0 -2155.0 -2018.0 -1623.0 -1543.5 Other finance costs 0.0 0.0 0.0 -300.0 -100.0 Total finance costs -2990.0 -2155.0 -2018.0 -1923.0 -1643.5 Exceptionals -695.0 -249.0 -268.0 1270.0 -200.0 PBT 5705.0 7844.9 7530.0 9485.7 9170.5 Tax -1538.0 -1885.0 -1837.3 -2243.7 -2292.6 Minorities (incl. pref. divs.) -565.0 -609.0 -543.0 -586.0 -765.0 Earnings (basic) 3602.0 5350.9 5149.7 6656.0 6112.9 Average no. of shares (m) - basic 152.5 152.5 152.8 152.8 152.8 Average no. of shares (m) - diluted 152.5 152.5 152.8 152.8 152.8 P E R S H A R E D A T A ( D K K )

EPS Basic 2362.0 3507.7 3369.4 4355.0 3999.6 EPS Diluted (Adj) 2729.2 3507.7 3369.4 3762.8 4097.8 Cash EPS (Diluted) 5207.2 6107.5 5845.2 6281.9 6649.5 Dividend 350.0 543.0 550.0 573.2 630.0 NBV 35953.4 42119.1 43095.6 48183.2 52968.7 NBV (incl. amortisation of intangibles) 35953.4 42119.1 43095.6 48183.2 52968.7 C A S H F L O W ( D K K )

EBITDA 13169.0 14214.9 13600.0 13988.7 14914.0 Change in working capital 3675.0 716.0 -992.0 -62.6 -254.9 Share-based payments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other operating cashflows -9.0 514.0 315.0 3.1 -267.6 Cash generated from operations 16835.0 15444.9 12923.0 13929.3 14391.5 Net capital expenditure -2923.0 -3326.0 -4571.0 -4288.5 -4451.7 Operating cashflow 13912.0 12118.9 8352.0 9640.8 9939.8 Net interest -1597.0 -1947.0 -2070.0 -1923.0 -1643.5 Tax -1374.0 -2329.8 -1592.0 -2131.5 -2178.0 Dividends from associates 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Dividends to minorities -591.0 -604.0 -1876.0 -936.0 -994.5 Free cash flow 10350.0 7238.1 2814.0 4650.3 5123.8 Dividends to shareholders -540.0 -746.0 -812.0 -1070.5 -1006.9 Acquisitions & investments -159.0 -2535.0 -312.0 1950.0 50.0 Business disposals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Share Issues / (Buybacks) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Translation differences 0.0 0.0 -5.0 0.0 0.0 Other -2158.0 -1105.2 -968.0 1.7 465.1 Change in net cash / debt 7493.0 2852.0 717.0 5531.5 4632.0 B A L A N C E S H E E T ( D K K )

Property, plant & equipment 31825.0 32420.0 31848.0 33141.2 35192.4 Intangible assets 81611.0 87813.0 89041.0 89363.0 91120.0 Investments in associates / jv's 2667.0 4877.0 5051.0 5051.0 5051.0 Working capital -9531.0 -10300.0 -8769.0 -9106.0 -9202.0 Other 337.0 241.0 -258.0 -258.0 -258.0 Capital Employed 106909 115051 116913 118191 121903 Financed by Equity capital & reserves 54829.0 64248.0 65866.0 73641.7 80955.8 Minority interests 4660.0 5381.0 5763.0 5547.0 5317.5 Preference shares 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Net Debt/(Cash) 36663.0 33811.0 33094.0 27562.5 22930.5 Deferred consideration/debt-related 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Retirement benefit obligations 2153.0 2434.0 3263.0 3263.0 3263.0 Net deferred tax 6505.0 6749.0 6664.0 5914.0 7173.6 Other long-term liabilities 2099.0 2428.0 2263.0 2263.0 2263.0 Capital Employed 106909 115051 116913 118191 121903 Intangibles amortised 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Capital employed inc. intangibles 106909 115051 116913 118191 121903 Invested capital inc. intangibles 96152.0 103440 104723 106751 109204

GEOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS Dec11 Dec12F Dec13F Dec11 Dec12F Dec13F Revenue (DKK) Operating Profits (DKK)

Northern & Western Europe 36879.0 36828.1 36962.9 5419.0 5394.4 5560.7 Eastern Europe 19719.0 20174.5 21602.0 4286.0 4130.0 4667.2 Asia 6838.0 9102.5 10250.1 1286.0 1727.3 1946.2 Not allocated 125.0 133.0 125.0 -1114.0 -1113.0 -1160.0 Total 63561.0 66238.2 68940.0 9877.0 10138.7 11014.0


VALUATION Dec11 Dec12F Dec13F Dec11 Dec12F Dec13F Rel to Sector


PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 Yr Absolute -0.8 3.1 22.6 10.4 29.5 38.3 Rel to OMX Copenhagen 0.0 3.8 8.2 5.2 5.4 0.4 Rel to E300 -2.0 1.3 7.2 8.0 15.5 12.3 Rel to E300 Beverages 2.3 6.2 10.1 -0.3 2.4 -6.7


2012 53300 40600 15.8 11.6 13.7 2011 62000 32220 40500 21.6 9.2 15.1 2010 60750 36700 55850 22.3 14.2 18.2 2009 39375 16875 38400 15.3 6.9 12.5 2008 55052 15100 17125 25.0 6.2 17.2 2007 62156 44801 49725 43.0 22.9 28.5

KEY RATIOS Dec09 Dec10 Dec11 Dec12F Dec13F G R O W T H

EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 5.9 28.5 -3.9 11.7 8.9 Dividend (%) 0.0 55.1 1.3 4.2 9.9 Revenue (%) -0.9 1.1 5.8 4.2 4.1 EBITDA (%) 13.4 7.9 -4.3 2.9 6.6 P R O F I T A B I L I T Y / A C T I V I T Y



EBITDA Int. Cover (x) 4.4 6.6 6.7 8.6 9.7 Group Interest Cover (x) 3.1 4.8 4.9 6.2 7.1 Debt / EBITDA (x) 2.8 2.4 2.4 2.0 1.5 Debt / Equity (%) 61.6 48.6 46.2 34.8 26.6 Debt / Free Cash Flow (x) 3.5 4.7 11.8 5.9 4.5 Avg. Cost of Debt (before tax) (%) 7.4 6.1 6.0 5.4 6.1 Ret. benefits deficit / market cap (%) 3.7 2.9 5.3 4.1 4.1 Dividend Cover (x) 7.8 6.5 6.1 6.6 6.5 Working Capital / Revenue (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Net Capex / Depreciation (%) 77.3 83.9 120.8 111.4 114.1 Tax rate (%) (unadjusted) 27.0 24.0 24.4 23.7 25.0

CAGR(%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS % Revenue (%) 9.1 N/A Carlsberg Foundation 12.2 EBITDA (%) 14.7 N/A OppenheimerFunds 6.2 EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 9.9 N/A Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) 3.0 N/A Dividend (%) 12.1 N/A TSR -0.9 6.7


37 Davy Research

Continental Farmers Group

Analyst: John O'Reilly Xetra: CT3 Email: john.o'[email protected] Bloomberg: CFGP ID Phone: +353 1 6148915 RIC: CFGP.I Sector: Agribusiness www.continentalfarmersgroup.com

Price (c) Shares (m) Mkt. Cap (€m) E.V. (€m) Mkt. Cap. / EV (%) Free Float (%) Daily No. Shares Traded (m) Daily Value Traded (€m) 30 163.5 49.0 52.6 93.2 35.0 0.027 0.007

SUMMARY ACCOUNTS Dec09 Dec10 Dec11E Dec12F Dec13F I N C O M E S T A T E M E N T ( € M )

Revenue 12.3 21.1 24.9 32.1 39.9 EBITDA 0.3 6.3 6.8 8.9 11.1 Depreciation 1.4 1.8 1.9 2.2 2.6 Amortisation of intangibles 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Operating profit -1.0 4.6 4.8 6.7 8.5 Other income from operations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Share of associate / JV after-tax profits 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 PBIT before exceptionals -1.0 4.6 4.8 6.7 8.5 Group net interest -0.9 -1.4 -1.4 -1.4 -1.4 Other finance costs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total finance costs -0.9 -1.4 -1.4 -1.4 -1.4 Exceptionals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 PBT -1.9 3.2 3.4 5.3 7.1 Tax 0.0 -0.6 -0.7 -0.3 -0.4 Minorities (incl. pref. divs.) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Earnings (basic) -1.9 2.7 2.7 5.0 6.7 Average no. of shares (m) - basic 82.9 82.9 123.2 163.5 163.5 Average no. of shares (m) - diluted 82.9 82.9 123.2 163.5 163.5 P E R S H A R E D A T A ( C )

EPS Basic -2.2 3.2 2.2 3.1 4.1 EPS Diluted (Adj) -2.2 3.2 2.2 3.1 4.1 Cash EPS (Diluted) -0.6 5.4 3.8 4.4 5.7 Dividend 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 NBV 56.6 60.8 43.0 46.1 50.2 NBV (incl. amortisation of intangibles) 56.6 60.8 43.0 46.1 50.2 C A S H F L O W ( € M )

EBITDA 0.3 6.3 6.8 8.9 11.1 Change in working capital -0.8 -2.1 -0.2 -3.0 -3.2 Share-based payments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other operating cashflows 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.0 Cash generated from operations 0.4 4.2 6.6 5.9 7.9 Net capital expenditure -6.0 -3.1 -5.7 -9.6 -10.7 Operating cashflow -5.5 1.1 0.9 -3.7 -2.8 Net interest -0.7 -0.9 -1.4 -1.4 -1.4 Tax 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 Dividends from associates 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Dividends to minorities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Free cash flow -6.2 0.2 -0.7 -5.4 -4.6 Dividends to shareholders 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 Acquisitions & investments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Business disposals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Share Issues / (Buybacks) 4.0 0.0 14.5 0.0 0.0 Translation differences 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other -0.7 -0.6 -0.0 0.0 -0.1 Change in net cash / debt -2.8 -0.2 13.8 -5.4 -4.7 B A L A N C E S H E E T ( € M )

Property, plant & equipment 30.7 32.4 36.1 43.6 51.8 Intangible assets 22.1 22.1 22.1 22.1 22.1 Investments in associates / jv's 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Working capital 8.4 11.1 10.8 13.7 16.9 Other 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Capital Employed 61.3 65.6 69.0 79.5 90.9 Financed by Equity capital & reserves 46.9 50.4 70.4 75.4 82.1 Minority interests 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 Preference shares 2.5 2.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 Net Debt/(Cash) 10.4 10.6 -3.2 2.2 6.9 Deferred consideration/debt-related 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Retirement benefit obligations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Net deferred tax 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 Other long-term liabilities 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.0 -0.0 Capital Employed 61.3 65.6 69.0 79.5 90.9 Intangibles amortised 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Capital employed inc. intangibles 61.3 65.6 69.0 79.5 90.9 Invested capital inc. intangibles 61.3 65.0 68.5 78.9 90.3

CALENDAR Date Ex-Div Interims 17-09-12 Finals 27-03-12 AGM 29-05-12 Updated 28-10-11

VALUATION Dec11E Dec12F Dec13F Dec11E Dec12F Dec13F Rel to Sector

P/E 13.5 9.8 7.3 0.9 0.7 0.5 Dividend Yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 Free Cash Flow Yield (pre divs) (%) N/A N/A N/A Price / Book 0.70 0.65 0.60 0.2 0.2 0.2 EV / Revenue 1.90 1.64 1.44 EV / EBITDA 7.0 5.9 5.1 EV / EBITA 9.8 7.8 6.7 EV / Operating Cashflow N/A N/A N/A EV / Invested Capital 0.69 0.67 0.63 PEG (Hist P/E/4yr gwth) N/A

PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 Yr Absolute 0.0 7.1 11.1 25.0 7.1 -11.8 Rel to ISEQ -1.3 3.6 1.1 24.1 -5.9 -34.1 Rel to E300 -1.2 5.4 -2.4 22.6 -4.2 -28.1 Rel to E300 Food Producers 2.2 11.8 8.1 21.0 0.5 -25.5


2012 31 24 12.2 7.4 8.5 2011 36 26 28 11.0 8.0 9.3

KEY RATIOS Dec09 Dec10 Dec11E Dec12F Dec13F G R O W T H

EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) N/A N/A -31.4 38.2 34.4 Dividend (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Revenue (%) 102.2 71.3 17.8 29.2 24.2 EBITDA (%) -83.2 N/A 6.8 31.4 25.1 P R O F I T A B I L I T Y / A C T I V I T Y

EBITDA margin (%) 2.8 30.0 27.2 27.7 27.9 EBITA margin (%) N/A 21.6 19.4 20.9 21.4 Revenue / Capital Employed (x) 0.20 0.33 0.37 0.43 0.47 R E T U R N

ROCE (before tax, ex. invs) (%) N/A 7.2 7.2 9.1 10.0 ROE (after tax) (%) N/A 5.5 4.5 6.9 8.6 Ret. on Inv. Cap. (after tax) (%) N/A 5.9 5.8 8.7 9.6 WACC (%) N/A N/A 5.4 N/A 8.1 F I N A N C I A L / G E N E R A L

EBITDA Int. Cover (x) 0.4 4.5 4.7 6.2 7.7 Group Interest Cover (x) N/A 3.3 3.3 4.7 5.9 Debt / EBITDA (x) 29.9 1.7 N/A 0.3 0.6 Debt / Equity (%) 21.5 20.5 N/A 2.9 8.3 Debt / Free Cash Flow (x) N/A 56.7 N/A N/A N/A Avg. Cost of Debt (before tax) (%) 7.6 10.7 22.5 N/A N/A Ret. benefits deficit / market cap (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Dividend Cover (x) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Working Capital / Revenue (%) 68.1 52.5 43.2 42.7 42.4 Net Capex / Depreciation (%) 432.7 176.0 294.2 443.4 412.4 Tax rate (%) (unadjusted) N/A 18.5 19.2 5.0 4.9

CAGR(%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS % Revenue (%) N/A N/A Origin International 24.3 EBITDA (%) N/A N/A Artemis 8.2 EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) N/A N/A Mark Laird 7.1 Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) N/A N/A F&C Asset Management 5.6 Dividend (%) N/A N/A Thomas O' Connor 4.5 TSR N/A N/A


38 Davy Research

CSM NV

Analyst: John O'Reilly Email: john.o'[email protected] Bloomberg: CSM NA Phone: +353 1 6148915 RIC: /CSMNc.AS Sector: Speciality baking www.csmglobal.com


SUMMARY ACCOUNTS Dec09 Dec10 Dec11 Dec12F Dec13F I N C O M E S T A T E M E N T ( € M )

Revenue 2555.9 2990.1 3112.6 3335.6 3315.1 EBITDA 211.5 265.5 202.2 204.0 254.9 Depreciation 60.9 71.6 72.0 72.2 76.4 Amortisation of intangibles 7.8 35.7 30.7 25.1 25.1 Operating profit 142.8 158.2 99.5 106.7 153.4 Other income from operations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Share of associate / JV after-tax profits 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 PBIT before exceptionals 142.8 158.2 99.5 106.7 153.4 Group net interest -28.9 -27.6 -29.8 -34.0 -33.0 Other finance costs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total finance costs -28.9 -27.6 -29.8 -34.0 -33.0 Exceptionals 0.0 0.0 -249.0 0.0 0.0 PBT 113.9 130.6 -179.3 72.7 120.4 Tax -27.1 -31.2 5.0 -17.4 -28.9 Minorities (incl. pref. divs.) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Earnings (basic) 86.8 99.4 -174.3 55.3 91.5 Average no. of shares (m) - basic 64.8 66.0 66.1 69.9 69.9 Average no. of shares (m) - diluted 65.0 66.2 66.3 69.9 69.9 P E R S H A R E D A T A ( C )

EPS Basic 134.0 150.6 -263.5 79.2 131.0 EPS Diluted (Adj) 135.4 181.4 -236.8 98.2 150.0 Cash EPS (Diluted) 229.1 289.6 -128.3 201.6 259.4 Dividend 88.0 88.0 70.0 73.0 76.0 NBV 1530.4 1682.5 1425.2 1368.8 1429.2 NBV (incl. amortisation of intangibles) 1563.8 1769.1 1557.7 1531.0 1627.3 C A S H F L O W ( € M )

EBITDA 211.5 265.5 202.2 204.0 254.9 Change in working capital 103.5 -13.3 1.2 -11.9 1.7 Share-based payments 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 Other operating cashflows -6.7 1.9 -10.5 0.5 -3.5 Cash generated from operations 309.3 255.1 193.9 193.6 254.1 Net capital expenditure -47.1 -69.6 -93.2 -80.1 -76.2 Operating cashflow 262.2 185.5 100.7 113.5 177.9 Net interest -32.0 -32.4 -29.4 -34.0 -33.0 Tax -0.1 -34.1 -19.6 -17.4 -28.9 Dividends from associates 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Dividends to minorities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Free cash flow 230.1 119.0 51.7 62.1 116.0 Dividends to shareholders -31.5 -36.2 -23.2 -47.4 -49.3 Acquisitions & investments 0.0 -384.7 -20.5 0.0 0.0 Business disposals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Share Issues / (Buybacks) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Translation differences 0.0 7.4 1.6 0.0 0.0 Other 1.2 -8.2 5.8 -0.4 3.4 Change in net cash / debt 199.8 -302.7 15.4 14.3 70.1 B A L A N C E S H E E T ( € M )


DIVISIONAL ANALYSIS Dec11 Dec12F Dec13F Dec11 Dec12F Dec13F Revenue (€m) EBITA (€m)

BSNA 1627.6 1801.4 1753.0 94.9 115.9 110.5 BSEU 1077.8 1111.9 1122.4 38.4 20.7 42.7 PURAC 407.2 422.3 438.8 46.1 45.0 54.9 Total 3112.6 3335.6 3314.2 179.4 181.6 208.1



P/E N/A 14.4 9.4 N/A 0.8 0.6 Dividend Yield (%) 4.9 5.2 5.4 2.5 2.4 2.4 Free Cash Flow Yield (pre divs) (%) 5.0 6.0 11.2 Price / Book 0.99 1.03 0.99 0.5 0.5 0.5 EV / Revenue 0.50 0.49 0.47 EV / EBITDA 7.7 8.0 6.1 EV / EBITA 12.0 12.4 8.8 EV / Operating Cashflow 15.5 14.4 8.8 EV / Invested Capital 0.94 0.98 0.94 PEG (Hist P/E/4yr gwth) N/A

PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 Yr Absolute 3.2 8.8 11.0 2.1 17.2 -5.9 Rel to Amsterdam Exchange 3.0 7.0 -4.2 0.6 8.3 -23.9 Rel to E300 1.9 7.0 -2.5 0.1 4.8 -23.3 Rel to E300 Food Producers 5.5 13.5 8.0 -1.2 9.9 -20.5


2012 1528 1049 8.4 N/A N/A 2011 2688 925 1208 19.9 5.1 11.3 2010 2627 1855 2619 23.5 13.6 18.5 2009 1868 761 1838 21.0 5.8 12.1 2008 2472 900 1098 31.6 6.9 19.8 2007 2837 2133 2205 35.0 15.6 20.6


EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) -2.9 34.0 N/A N/A 52.8 Dividend (%) 100.0 0.0 -20.5 4.3 4.1 Revenue (%) -1.7 17.0 4.1 7.2 -0.6 EBITDA (%) 22.9 25.5 -23.8 0.9 25.0 P R O F I T A B I L I T Y / A C T I V I T Y



EBITDA Int. Cover (x) 7.3 9.6 6.8 6.0 7.7 Group Interest Cover (x) 4.9 5.7 N/A 3.1 4.6 Debt / EBITDA (x) 1.6 2.4 3.0 2.9 2.1 Debt / Equity (%) 32.9 56.5 64.9 62.9 53.2 Debt / Free Cash Flow (x) 1.4 5.3 11.9 9.7 4.6 Avg. Cost of Debt (before tax) (%) 6.7 5.8 4.8 5.6 5.8 Ret. benefits deficit / market cap (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Dividend Cover (x) 1.5 2.1 N/A 1.3 2.0 Working Capital / Revenue (%) 7.8 8.4 8.3 8.1 8.1 Net Capex / Depreciation (%) 77.3 97.2 129.4 110.9 99.7 Tax rate (%) (unadjusted) 23.8 23.9 N/A 23.9 24.0

CAGR(%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS % Revenue (%) 5.2 N/A ING Groep 10.7 EBITDA (%) 1.1 N/A Lansdowne Partners 10.3 EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) N/A N/A ASR Nederland 6.3 Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) N/A N/A Dividend (%) -4.5 N/A TSR -4.5 -1.8


39 Davy Research

Diageo

Analyst: Barry Gallagher Email: [email protected] Bloomberg: DGE LN Phone: +353 1 6149194 RIC: DGE.L Sector: Beverage www.diageo.com


SUMMARY ACCOUNTS Jun10 Jun11 Jun12P Jun13F Jun14F I N C O M E S T A T E M E N T ( £ M )

Revenue 9780.5 9936.0 10762.0 11374.6 12297.1 EBITDA 3123.2 3235.5 3609.0 3915.8 4213.2 Depreciation 338.0 352.0 411.0 420.0 430.0 Amortisation of intangibles 34.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Operating profit 2751.2 2883.5 3198.0 3495.8 3783.2 Other income from operations 0.0 0.0 147.0 0.0 0.0 Share of associate / JV after-tax profits 141.7 176.0 213.0 227.8 243.9 PBIT before exceptionals 2892.9 3059.5 3558.0 3723.6 4027.1 Group net interest -462.0 -411.0 -397.0 -400.0 -335.0 Other finance costs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total finance costs -462.0 -411.0 -397.0 -400.0 -335.0 Exceptionals -192.0 -289.0 -40.0 -50.0 -50.0 PBT 2238.9 2359.5 3121.0 3273.6 3642.1 Tax -476.9 -343.0 -1038.0 -589.3 -655.6 Minorities (incl. pref. divs.) -114.0 -117.0 -130.0 -130.0 -130.0 Earnings (basic) 1629.0 1899.5 1942.0 2554.3 2856.5 Average no. of shares (m) - basic 2460.0 2493.0 2495.0 2495.0 2495.0 Average no. of shares (m) - diluted 2477.0 2493.0 2495.0 2495.0 2495.0 P E R S H A R E D A T A ( P )


EBITDA 3123.2 3235.5 3609.0 3915.8 4213.2 Change in working capital 320.9 -112.0 -529.0 -106.0 -107.0 Share-based payments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other operating cashflows -259.9 -244.0 -32.1 86.2 89.8 Cash generated from operations 3184.2 2879.5 3047.9 3896.0 4196.0 Net capital expenditure -231.0 -372.0 -445.0 -512.0 -543.0 Operating cashflow 2953.2 2507.5 2602.9 3384.0 3653.0 Net interest -305.0 -311.0 -391.0 -400.0 -335.0 Tax -474.0 -365.0 -563.0 -589.0 -656.0 Dividends from associates 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Dividends to minorities -107.4 -111.0 -118.0 -120.0 -120.0 Free cash flow 2066.8 1720.5 1530.9 2275.0 2542.0 Dividends to shareholders -914.0 -973.0 -1036.0 -1258.0 -1400.0 Acquisitions & investments -248.0 -117.0 -1420.0 0.0 0.0 Business disposals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Share Issues / (Buybacks) 85.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Translation differences 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other -901.8 231.0 -195.4 240.0 78.0 Change in net cash / debt 88.0 861.5 -1120.5 1257.0 1220.0 B A L A N C E S H E E T ( £ M )


GEOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS Jun12P Jun13F Jun14F Jun12P Jun13F Jun14F Revenue (£m) Operating Profits (£m)

North America 3556.0 3751.6 3957.9 1354.4 1448.1 1547.5 Europe 2949.0 2919.5 2919.5 924.7 934.2 948.8 Africa 1447.0 1606.2 1782.8 379.9 438.5 506.3 Latin America 1239.0 1406.3 1596.1 383.3 445.1 511.6 Asia Pacific 1501.0 1621.1 1750.8 341.8 389.9 428.9 Corporate 70.0 70.0 70.0 -186.0 -160.0 -160.0 Total 10762 11375 12077 3198 3496 3783


VALUATION Jun12P Jun13F Jun14F Dec11P Dec12F Dec13F Rel to Sector


PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 Yr Absolute -1.1 -1.6 5.3 9.5 19.7 38.4 Rel to FTSE 100 -3.1 -2.5 -2.7 10.0 12.7 22.3 Rel to E300 -3.4 -6.0 -7.2 10.2 10.4 21.3 Rel to E300 Beverages 0.8 -1.4 -4.7 1.8 -2.1 0.7


2012 1765 1381 20.8 16.5 18.6 2011 1408 1112 1407 18.1 14.4 16.6 2010 1215 1000 1185 18.0 15.1 16.5 2009 1090 733 1084 18.1 11.4 15.0 2008 1081 794 961 19.7 13.4 16.7 2007 1122 966 1080 20.5 17.6 19.3

KEY RATIOS Jun10 Jun11 Jun12P Jun13F Jun14F G R O W T H

EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 9.1 15.9 12.8 10.8 11.6 Dividend (%) 6.0 5.5 7.7 6.9 7.1 Revenue (%) 5.0 1.6 8.3 5.7 8.1 EBITDA (%) 9.1 3.6 11.5 8.5 7.6 P R O F I T A B I L I T Y / A C T I V I T Y



EBITDA Int. Cover (x) 6.8 7.9 9.1 9.8 12.6 Group Interest Cover (x) 6.3 7.4 9.0 9.3 12.0 Debt / EBITDA (x) 2.4 2.1 2.2 1.7 1.3 Debt / Equity (%) 159.4 112.2 115.2 69.7 43.8 Debt / Free Cash Flow (x) 3.7 3.9 5.1 2.9 2.1 Avg. Cost of Debt (before tax) (%) 6.3 6.0 5.7 5.8 5.9 Ret. benefits deficit / market cap (%) N/A N/A 2.7 2.6 2.6 Dividend Cover (x) 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.3 Working Capital / Revenue (%) 29.5 27.6 37.3 36.2 34.3 Net Capex / Depreciation (%) 68.3 105.7 108.3 121.9 126.3 Tax rate (%) (unadjusted) 21.3 14.5 33.3 18.0 18.0

CAGR(%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS % Revenue (%) 7.5 N/A Blackrock 5.8 EBITDA (%) 8.8 N/A Capital Research & Mgmt 5.0 EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 11.6 N/A Legal & General Group 4.0 Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) 12.6 N/A Dividend (%) 5.9 N/A TSR 13.3 9.9


40 Davy Research

Donegal Creameries

Analyst: John O'Reilly Xetra: DQ7 Email: john.o'[email protected] Bloomberg: DCP ID Phone: +353 1 6148915 RIC: DQ7.I Sector: Dairy processing www.donegal-creameries.ie



Revenue 113.3 126.2 69.6 74.5 78.2 EBITDA 3.2 5.5 0.1 8.0 8.6 Depreciation 2.5 2.3 2.3 1.5 1.6 Amortisation of intangibles 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 Operating profit -2.0 -0.8 -4.0 4.5 4.8 Other income from operations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Share of associate / JV after-tax profits 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 PBIT before exceptionals 0.7 3.0 -2.3 6.5 7.0 Group net interest -0.6 -0.3 -1.7 -0.6 -0.5 Other finance costs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total finance costs -0.6 -0.3 -1.7 -0.6 -0.5 Exceptionals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 PBT 0.0 2.7 -4.1 5.9 6.5 Tax -0.0 0.4 1.1 -0.9 -1.0 Minorities (incl. pref. divs.) -0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Earnings (basic) 0.0 3.1 -7.9 5.0 5.5 Average no. of shares (m) - basic 10.2 10.1 10.1 10.1 10.1 Average no. of shares (m) - diluted 10.5 10.2 10.3 10.3 10.3 P E R S H A R E D A T A ( C )

EPS Basic 0.0 30.2 -77.4 49.0 54.2 EPS Diluted (Adj) 0.7 31.5 -75.5 49.1 54.2 Cash EPS (Diluted) 24.5 54.3 -52.7 63.6 69.4 Dividend 16.0 16.0 16.0 16.0 17.0 NBV 567.9 594.4 502.3 534.6 569.1 NBV (incl. amortisation of intangibles) 580.8 609.1 517.7 550.8 586.1 C A S H F L O W ( € M )

EBITDA 3.2 5.5 0.1 8.0 8.6 Change in working capital 4.7 -4.0 -0.6 -1.0 0.7 Share-based payments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other operating cashflows 2.5 0.7 -0.2 -2.0 -2.2 Cash generated from operations 10.4 2.2 -0.7 5.0 7.1 Net capital expenditure -2.1 -2.3 -2.3 -1.0 -1.0 Operating cashflow 8.3 -0.1 -3.0 4.0 6.1 Net interest -0.9 -0.3 -1.0 -0.6 -0.5 Tax -0.3 0.4 -0.3 -0.9 -1.0 Dividends from associates 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Dividends to minorities -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 Free cash flow 7.1 -0.0 -4.3 2.5 4.6 Dividends to shareholders -1.6 -1.6 -1.6 -1.6 -1.7 Acquisitions & investments -0.2 -0.7 -4.4 0.0 0.0 Business disposals 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.5 0.0 Share Issues / (Buybacks) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Translation differences 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other -1.3 -0.8 0.4 -0.0 0.0 Change in net cash / debt 3.9 -3.0 -10.0 14.4 2.8 B A L A N C E S H E E T ( € M )




P/E N/A 6.7 6.1 N/A 0.4 0.4 Dividend Yield (%) 4.8 4.8 5.2 1.5 1.4 1.4 Free Cash Flow Yield (pre divs) (%) N/A 7.5 13.7 Price / Book 0.66 0.62 0.58 0.2 0.2 0.2 EV / Revenue 0.32 0.10 0.06 EV / EBITDA N/A 0.9 0.5 EV / EBITA N/A 1.1 0.7 EV / Operating Cashflow N/A 1.9 0.8 EV / Invested Capital 0.78 0.70 0.65 PEG (Hist P/E/4yr gwth) N/A

PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 Yr Absolute -7.0 -2.9 1.5 -13.2 6.3 0.3 Rel to ISEQ -8.2 -6.2 -7.6 -13.8 -6.6 -25.1 Rel to E300 -8.2 -4.5 -10.8 -14.9 -5.0 -18.2 Rel to E300 Food Producers -5.0 1.3 -1.2 -16.0 -0.3 -15.3


2012 390 310 12.4 N/A 3.7 2011 465 300 310 15.8 9.5 12.5 2010 470 190 400 16.0 N/A N/A 2009 290 150 215 5.1 N/A N/A 2008 644 271 271 21.4 4.8 12.5 2007 716 470 630 58.3 N/A N/A


EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A 10.3 Dividend (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.3 Revenue (%) -12.8 11.4 -44.8 7.0 5.0 EBITDA (%) -29.3 70.0 -98.5 N/A 7.8 P R O F I T A B I L I T Y / A C T I V I T Y

EBITDA margin (%) 2.9 4.4 0.1 10.8 11.1 EBITA margin (%) N/A N/A N/A 6.1 6.2 Revenue / Capital Employed (x) 2.95 3.01 1.38 1.56 2.00 R E T U R N

ROCE (before tax, ex. invs) (%) 1.9 7.5 N/A 13.6 18.1 ROE (after tax) (%) 0.1 5.2 N/A 9.2 9.5 Ret. on Inv. Cap. (after tax) (%) N/A N/A N/A 4.7 5.4 WACC (%) 4.8 4.7 5.3 4.3 4.2 F I N A N C I A L / G E N E R A L

EBITDA Int. Cover (x) 5.2 16.3 0.0 13.4 17.3 Group Interest Cover (x) 1.1 8.9 N/A 10.8 14.0 Debt / EBITDA (x) 6.2 4.2 415.2 2.3 1.9 Debt / Equity (%) 33.6 37.6 63.3 33.8 27.0 Debt / Free Cash Flow (x) 2.8 N/A N/A 7.5 3.5 Avg. Cost of Debt (before tax) (%) 2.8 1.6 6.1 2.3 2.9 Ret. benefits deficit / market cap (%) 3.3 1.3 0.8 0.8 0.8 Dividend Cover (x) 0.0 2.0 N/A 3.1 3.2 Working Capital / Revenue (%) 14.4 16.6 24.2 24.0 22.0 Net Capex / Depreciation (%) 86.3 96.7 97.3 67.1 63.9 Tax rate (%) (unadjusted) 63.0 N/A N/A 15.0 15.5

CAGR(%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS % Revenue (%) -10.1 -6.7 Goodbody Nominees 4.3 EBITDA (%) -58.1 -37.2 Bank of Ireland Nominees 4.0 EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) N/A N/A Irish Life Investment Mgrs 3.8 Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) N/A N/A Bank of New York Nominee 3.4 Dividend (%) 3.9 4.0 TSR -8.7 8.3


41 Davy Research

Frutarom

Analyst: Aiden O'Donnell/Jack Gorman Email: [email protected]/[email protected] Bloomberg: FRUT IT Phone: +353 1 6724211/+353 1 6148926 RIC: FRUT.TA Sector: Ingredients www.frutarom.com

ILs Price Price (c) Shares (m) Mkt. Cap ($m) E.V. ($m) Mkt. Cap. / EV (%) Free Float (%) Daily No. Shares Traded (m) Daily Value Traded ($m) 3766 969 57.2 554.4 676.4 82.0 56.1 0.050 0.477

SUMMARY ACCOUNTS Dec09 Dec10 Dec11 Dec12F Dec13F I N C O M E S T A T E M E N T ( $ M )

Revenue 425.2 451.1 518.4 624.7 641.8 EBITDA 65.3 80.7 81.3 100.7 103.4 Depreciation 18.2 18.1 20.6 26.9 25.0 Amortisation of intangibles 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Operating profit 47.1 62.7 60.7 73.8 78.4 Other income from operations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Share of associate / JV after-tax profits 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 PBIT before exceptionals 47.1 62.7 60.7 73.8 78.4 Group net interest -3.8 -2.1 -2.5 -5.6 -3.9 Other finance costs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total finance costs -3.8 -2.1 -2.5 -5.6 -3.9 Exceptionals 0.0 0.0 -5.3 0.0 0.0 PBT 43.3 60.6 52.9 68.2 74.6 Tax -9.7 -15.7 -10.8 -15.0 -15.8 Minorities (incl. pref. divs.) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Earnings (basic) 33.5 44.9 42.0 53.2 58.7 Average no. of shares (m) - basic 57.8 57.8 57.3 57.3 57.3 Average no. of shares (m) - diluted 57.8 57.8 57.5 57.5 57.5 P E R S H A R E D A T A ( C )

EPS Basic 58.0 77.6 73.4 92.9 102.5 EPS Diluted (Adj) 58.0 77.6 73.1 92.6 102.2 Cash EPS (Diluted) 89.5 108.9 109.0 139.3 145.7 Dividend 4.3 4.7 5.9 7.4 8.1 NBV 550.9 622.2 687.3 774.3 868.4 NBV (incl. amortisation of intangibles) 550.9 622.2 687.3 774.3 868.4 C A S H F L O W ( $ M )

EBITDA 65.3 80.7 81.3 100.7 103.4 Change in working capital 31.9 -10.2 -29.1 -30.4 -11.5 Share-based payments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other operating cashflows -0.9 -0.8 -4.8 0.0 1.9 Cash generated from operations 96.3 69.7 47.4 70.3 93.8 Net capital expenditure -3.7 -7.7 -7.5 -10.6 -10.9 Operating cashflow 92.6 62.0 39.9 59.7 82.9 Net interest -3.5 -1.7 -1.6 -5.6 -3.9 Tax -11.4 -7.6 -11.8 -15.0 -16.4 Dividends from associates 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Dividends to minorities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Free cash flow 77.7 52.7 26.5 39.1 62.6 Dividends to shareholders -2.5 -2.7 -3.4 -4.3 -4.5 Acquisitions & investments -37.4 -2.2 -99.7 -51.6 0.0 Business disposals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Share Issues / (Buybacks) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Translation differences 0.0 -0.6 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 Other -7.0 7.0 -7.9 0.7 0.6 Change in net cash / debt 30.8 54.2 -85.2 -16.8 58.0 B A L A N C E S H E E T ( $ M )


DIVISIONAL ANALYSIS Dec11 Dec12F Dec13F Dec11 Dec12F Dec13F Revenue ($m) Operating Profits ($m)

Food Flavours 369.9 466.1 480.1 48.8 58.1 62.3 Fine Ingredients 145.0 155.2 158.3 11.7 15.6 16.0 Sales & Marketing 3.5 3.4 3.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 Total 518.4 624.7 641.8 60.7 73.8 78.4




PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 Yr Absolute 4.8 5.4 0.2 7.9 10.1 23.1 Rel to Ingredients 6.7 6.5 -7.8 -6.2 -7.0 -3.8 Rel to E300 3.3 1.1 -15.9 2.3 -4.8 -0.1 Rel to E300 Food Producers 6.9 7.2 -6.9 1.0 -0.2 3.5


2012 3766 3264 14.4 11.5 13.1 2011 3877 2968 3422 14.1 11.4 12.8 2010 3809 2861 3764 15.9 11.1 13.5 2009 3474 2526 3150 15.2 11.8 13.1 2008 3550 2140 2362 21.2 10.0 17.1 2007 4057 3120 3120 22.2 14.6 17.5


EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) -27.8 33.9 -5.8 26.6 10.4 Dividend (%) -17.3 9.3 25.5 25.4 9.5 Revenue (%) -10.2 6.1 14.9 20.5 2.7 EBITDA (%) -12.5 23.6 0.7 23.8 2.7 P R O F I T A B I L I T Y / A C T I V I T Y



EBITDA Int. Cover (x) 17.0 38.7 32.0 17.9 26.9 Group Interest Cover (x) 12.3 30.0 23.9 13.1 20.4 Debt / EBITDA (x) 1.1 0.2 1.3 1.2 0.6 Debt / Equity (%) 23.3 5.5 26.7 27.5 12.9 Debt / Free Cash Flow (x) 1.0 0.4 4.0 3.1 1.0 Avg. Cost of Debt (before tax) (%) 4.3 4.4 4.1 4.9 4.1 Ret. benefits deficit / market cap (%) 2.4 1.8 2.2 2.0 2.0 Dividend Cover (x) 13.5 16.5 12.4 12.5 12.6 Working Capital / Revenue (%) 27.3 27.9 30.3 30.0 31.0 Net Capex / Depreciation (%) 20.3 42.6 36.4 39.5 43.5 Tax rate (%) (unadjusted) 22.5 25.9 20.5 22.0 21.2

CAGR(%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS % Revenue (%) 12.5 N/A ICC Industries Inc 37.3 EBITDA (%) 12.6 N/A Gudman Invest 5.7 EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 8.6 N/A Goodman & Co Investment 5.1 Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) 10.7 N/A CLAL Insurance 4.2 Dividend (%) 10.4 N/A TSR 3.9 23.9


42 Davy Research

Fyffes

Analyst: John O'Reilly Xetra: FQ3 Email: john.o'[email protected] Bloomberg: FFY ID Phone: +353 1 6148915 RIC: FFY.I Sector: Fruit distribution www.fyffes.com



Revenue 598.1 623.1 659.0 744.7 752.1 EBITDA 23.7 26.0 25.8 35.7 30.8 Depreciation 5.0 5.6 6.5 7.4 7.5 Amortisation of intangibles 3.4 4.4 2.9 2.9 2.9 Operating profit 15.4 16.0 16.4 25.3 20.3 Other income from operations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Share of associate / JV after-tax profits 2.2 1.0 2.7 2.5 2.5 PBIT before exceptionals 17.6 17.0 19.1 27.8 22.8 Group net interest 0.6 0.1 -0.7 -1.5 -1.0 Other finance costs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total finance costs 0.6 0.1 -0.7 -1.5 -1.0 Exceptionals -29.4 -8.2 -5.9 0.0 0.0 PBT -11.2 8.8 12.5 26.3 21.8 Tax 1.3 -1.5 -1.3 -4.5 -3.3 Minorities (incl. pref. divs.) -0.5 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 Earnings (basic) -10.5 7.7 11.4 22.0 18.7 Average no. of shares (m) - basic 345.3 343.8 322.9 297.4 297.4 Average no. of shares (m) - diluted 346.4 344.6 323.0 297.4 297.4 P E R S H A R E D A T A ( C )

EPS Basic -3.0 2.2 3.5 7.4 6.3 EPS Diluted (Adj) 5.2 5.5 6.1 8.4 7.3 Cash EPS (Diluted) 6.6 7.1 8.0 10.9 9.8 Dividend 1.6 1.8 1.9 2.4 2.3 NBV 43.9 45.0 45.7 50.4 54.4 NBV (incl. amortisation of intangibles) 46.6 49.1 51.2 56.9 61.9 C A S H F L O W ( € M )

EBITDA 23.7 26.0 25.8 35.7 30.8 Change in working capital -1.1 -3.4 -17.7 -7.8 -3.4 Share-based payments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other operating cashflows -12.3 -2.5 -3.1 -2.0 -2.0 Cash generated from operations 10.4 20.0 5.0 25.9 25.3 Net capital expenditure -4.8 -5.8 -5.3 -7.4 -6.9 Operating cashflow 5.6 14.3 -0.3 18.5 18.4 Net interest 2.1 0.2 0.7 -1.5 -1.0 Tax -2.0 -1.4 -2.5 -4.5 -3.3 Dividends from associates 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Dividends to minorities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Free cash flow 5.7 13.1 -2.2 12.5 14.1 Dividends to shareholders -5.4 -5.7 -5.9 -8.0 -7.5 Acquisitions & investments -3.0 -0.9 -15.8 0.0 0.0 Business disposals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Share Issues / (Buybacks) 0.0 -5.3 -12.7 0.0 0.0 Translation differences 0.1 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other 6.3 -1.3 -1.8 -0.0 0.0 Change in net cash / debt 3.7 0.5 -38.4 4.5 6.6 B A L A N C E S H E E T ( € M )

Property, plant & equipment 64.2 69.9 75.4 75.4 75.4 Intangible assets 16.6 20.9 22.4 22.4 22.4 Investments in associates / jv's 56.3 43.0 45.4 45.4 45.4 Working capital 19.6 22.1 35.4 43.2 46.6 Other 3.6 5.5 7.6 7.6 7.6 Capital Employed 160.4 161.3 186.2 194.0 197.5 Financed by Equity capital & reserves 151.7 148.1 135.8 149.8 161.6 Minority interests 2.1 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.7 Preference shares 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Net Debt/(Cash) -36.6 -37.1 1.3 -3.2 -9.8 Deferred consideration/debt-related 14.8 21.7 16.0 16.0 16.0 Retirement benefit obligations 14.5 13.8 21.7 21.7 21.7 Net deferred tax -3.5 -3.4 -4.7 -4.7 -4.7 Other long-term liabilities 17.4 17.4 15.5 13.8 12.0 Capital Employed 160.4 161.3 186.2 194.0 197.5 Intangibles amortised 9.2 13.5 16.5 19.4 22.4 Capital employed inc. intangibles 169.5 174.9 202.7 213.5 219.8 Invested capital inc. intangibles 141.1 147.1 170.3 182.8 190.9



P/E 8.3 6.0 6.9 0.8 0.7 0.8 Dividend Yield (%) 3.9 4.9 4.6 2.9 2.1 2.0 Free Cash Flow Yield (pre divs) (%) N/A 8.4 9.5 Price / Book 1.09 0.99 0.92 1.2 1.2 1.2 EV / Revenue 0.18 0.16 0.15 EV / EBITDA 4.7 3.3 3.6 EV / EBITA 6.3 4.1 4.7 EV / Operating Cashflow N/A 6.3 6.0 EV / Invested Capital 0.98 0.89 0.82 PEG (Hist P/E/4yr gwth) 0.94

PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 Yr Absolute -0.2 11.1 23.5 19.1 38.8 31.6 Rel to ISEQ -1.4 7.4 12.4 18.2 21.9 -1.7 Rel to E300 -1.4 9.3 8.4 16.7 24.1 7.3 Rel to E300 Food Producers 2.1 15.9 20.1 15.2 30.1 11.1


2012 51 37 8.4 6.7 7.2 2011 44 34 36 8.4 6.2 7.3 2010 47 30 37 11.9 5.8 7.5 2009 49 17 46 12.4 3.7 8.4 2008 101 21 25 21.2 4.7 13.4 2007 123 74 94 20.2 4.0 14.0


EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 31.8 6.1 9.8 38.8 -13.3 Dividend (%) 10.0 6.1 10.3 26.4 -5.7 Revenue (%) -1.4 4.2 5.8 13.0 1.0 EBITDA (%) 51.9 9.4 -0.7 38.4 -13.8 P R O F I T A B I L I T Y / A C T I V I T Y


ROCE (before tax, ex. invs) (%) 16.7 16.6 13.4 17.4 13.6 ROE (after tax) (%) 9.7 11.8 12.4 15.5 12.3 Ret. on Inv. Cap. (after tax) (%) 11.0 12.8 12.6 14.7 12.0 Cost of Equity (%) 8.4 8.0 7.7 6.1 6.1 F I N A N C I A L / G E N E R A L

EBITDA Int. Cover (x) N/A N/A 35.6 23.8 30.8 Group Interest Cover (x) N/A N/A 26.3 18.5 22.8 Debt / EBITDA (x) N/A N/A 0.7 0.4 0.2 Debt / Equity (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Debt / Free Cash Flow (x) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Avg. Cost of Debt (before tax) (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Ret. benefits deficit / market cap (%) 9.1 11.3 20.2 14.6 14.6 Dividend Cover (x) 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.4 3.2 Working Capital / Revenue (%) 3.3 3.5 5.4 5.8 6.2 Net Capex / Depreciation (%) 96.1 102.2 82.2 100.0 92.2 Tax rate (%) (unadjusted) N/A 17.3 10.2 17.0 15.0

CAGR(%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS % Revenue (%) 3.5 -10.3 Balken Investment Co 12.1 EBITDA (%) 4.4 -8.7 Fidelity Management and Research 10.5 EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 1.2 -7.0 Sparinvest Holding A/S 6.3 Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) 5.0 -6.8 Farringdon Capital Management 4.8 Dividend (%) -10.7 -8.6 Gartmore Investment Ltd. 3.8 TSR -6.2 3.7


43 Davy Research

Givaudan

Analyst: Aiden O'Donnell/Jack Gorman Email: [email protected]/[email protected] Bloomberg: GIVN VX Phone: +353 1 6724211/+353 1 6148926 RIC: GIVN.VX Sector: Ingredients www.givaudan.com

Price (chf) Shares (m) Mkt. Cap (CHF) E.V. (CHF) Mkt. Cap. / EV (%) Free Float (%) Daily No. Shares Traded (m) Daily Value Traded (CHF) 89650 9.2 8278.3 9531.5 86.9 77.1 0.025 23.360

SUMMARY ACCOUNTS Dec09 Dec10 Dec11 Dec12F Dec13F I N C O M E S T A T E M E N T ( C H F )

Revenue 3959.0 4239.0 3915.0 4158.2 4333.2 EBITDA 756.0 865.0 754.0 796.7 938.5 Depreciation 119.0 115.0 105.0 112.3 117.0 Amortisation of intangibles 176.0 194.0 205.0 163.0 177.0 Operating profit 461.0 556.0 444.0 521.4 644.5 Other income from operations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Share of associate / JV after-tax profits -1.0 0.0 -1.0 0.0 0.0 PBIT before exceptionals 460.0 556.0 443.0 521.4 644.5 Group net interest -193.0 -119.0 -125.0 -111.3 -112.3 Other finance costs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total finance costs -193.0 -119.0 -125.0 -111.3 -112.3 Exceptionals -65.0 -99.0 -37.0 -30.0 0.0 PBT 202.0 338.0 281.0 380.1 532.2 Tax -67.0 -97.0 -66.0 -77.9 -106.4 Minorities (incl. pref. divs.) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Earnings (basic) 135.0 241.0 215.0 302.2 425.8 Average no. of shares (m) - basic 7.9 9.0 9.1 9.1 9.1 Average no. of shares (m) - diluted 8.0 9.0 9.1 9.1 9.1 P E R S H A R E D A T A ( C H F )

EPS Basic 1701.1 2684.6 2364.6 3323.6 4682.9 EPS Diluted (Adj) 5080.0 6577.1 4953.0 5386.0 6203.8 Cash EPS (Diluted) 6573.4 7850.0 6101.0 6613.8 7483.1 Dividend 2150.0 2200.0 2200.0 2359.0 2587.0 NBV 35288.8 38143.3 38213.5 39446.8 41361.3 NBV (incl. amortisation of intangibles) 43458.5 47496.5 49693.9 52709.5 56559.3 C A S H F L O W ( C H F )

EBITDA 756.0 865.0 754.0 796.7 938.5 Change in working capital 58.0 -113.0 -213.0 -29.5 -7.9 Share-based payments 0.0 13.0 10.0 -13.0 -10.0 Other operating cashflows -25.0 23.0 -22.0 29.9 -3.0 Cash generated from operations 789.0 788.0 529.0 784.1 917.6 Net capital expenditure -149.0 -177.0 -262.0 -213.3 -198.9 Operating cashflow 640.0 611.0 267.0 570.8 718.7 Net interest -125.0 -116.0 -77.0 -87.3 -82.3 Tax -50.0 -59.0 -73.0 -77.9 -106.4 Dividends from associates 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Dividends to minorities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Free cash flow 465.0 436.0 117.0 405.6 530.0 Dividends to shareholders -71.0 -188.0 -196.0 -206.3 -237.6 Acquisitions & investments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Business disposals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Share Issues / (Buybacks) 477.0 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Translation differences -2.0 -110.0 -9.0 0.0 0.0 Other 65.0 748.0 -12.0 0.5 -0.1 Change in net cash / debt 934.0 895.0 -100.0 199.8 292.3 B A L A N C E S H E E T ( C H F )


DIVISIONAL ANALYSIS Dec11 Dec12F Dec13F Dec11 Dec12F Dec13F Revenue (CHF) EBITDA (CHF)

Fragrance 1833.0 1958.3 2035.4 360.0 404.9 432.9 Flavour 2082.0 2199.8 2297.8 431.0 451.8 505.5 Total 3915.0 4158.1 4333.2 791.0 856.7 938.4




PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 Yr Absolute -0.4 -4.2 -2.0 3.9 0.2 18.4 Rel to SMI -0.8 -5.0 -11.7 -0.2 -9.4 -2.2 Rel to E300 -2.2 -6.8 -15.1 1.6 -10.5 -4.7 Rel to E300 Food Producers 1.2 -1.2 -6.0 0.3 -6.2 -1.3


2012 96300 83400 19.8 13.7 18.1 2011 99214 70350 89500 19.4 14.0 15.9 2010 102241 80709 98530 20.0 17.0 18.1 2009 83346 53600 80709 18.0 10.9 14.3 2008 105816 68545 76617 18.5 11.6 14.7 2007 114580 94745 100649 19.9 16.6 17.9


EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) -6.0 29.5 -24.7 8.7 15.2 Dividend (%) 7.5 2.3 0.0 7.2 9.7 Revenue (%) -3.1 7.1 -7.6 6.2 4.2 EBITDA (%) 2.9 14.4 -12.8 5.7 17.8 P R O F I T A B I L I T Y / A C T I V I T Y




CAGR(%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS % Revenue (%) 6.1 N/A William Gates 10.3 EBITDA (%) 3.9 N/A Nestle SA 10.0 EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) -5.4 N/A Harris Associates 5.2 Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) -4.9 N/A Dividend (%) 4.6 N/A TSR 0.1 5.7


44 Davy Research

Glanbia

Analyst: John O'Reilly Xetra: GL9 Email: john.o'[email protected] Bloomberg: GLB ID Phone: +353 1 6148915 RIC: GL9.I Sector: Dairy processing www.glanbia.com



Revenue 1830.3 2167.0 2671.2 2764.2 2855.4 EBITDA 152.5 184.2 213.6 242.8 267.1 Depreciation 28.7 32.6 34.1 35.5 44.4 Amortisation of intangibles 13.9 15.1 18.5 23.4 22.9 Operating profit 111.2 136.5 161.0 183.9 199.8 Other income from operations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Share of associate / JV after-tax profits 10.2 10.1 14.3 13.8 14.7 PBIT before exceptionals 121.4 146.6 175.4 197.7 214.4 Group net interest -24.0 -22.1 -27.9 -28.8 -29.0 Other finance costs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total finance costs -24.0 -22.1 -27.9 -28.8 -29.0 Exceptionals 34.9 9.7 -7.6 0.0 0.0 PBT 132.3 134.2 139.8 168.8 185.4 Tax -19.1 -25.5 -27.0 -31.0 -34.1 Minorities (incl. pref. divs.) -0.5 -0.6 -0.6 -0.5 -0.5 Earnings (basic) 112.7 108.0 112.2 137.3 150.7 Average no. of shares (m) - basic 293.0 293.1 293.5 293.5 293.5 Average no. of shares (m) - diluted 293.0 293.1 293.5 293.5 293.5 P E R S H A R E D A T A ( C )


EBITDA 152.5 184.2 213.6 242.8 267.1 Change in working capital -32.9 -63.4 -49.0 -6.5 -8.1 Share-based payments -15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other operating cashflows 0.0 -13.6 -19.2 -17.0 -17.0 Cash generated from operations 104.7 107.2 145.4 219.3 242.0 Net capital expenditure -51.2 -36.0 -48.5 -99.4 -84.4 Operating cashflow 53.5 71.3 96.9 119.9 157.6 Net interest -25.1 -22.6 -26.6 -28.8 -29.0 Tax -5.5 -12.0 -12.7 -31.0 -34.1 Dividends from associates 17.9 11.2 14.8 11.7 12.5 Dividends to minorities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Free cash flow 40.8 47.9 72.3 71.8 106.9 Dividends to shareholders -19.5 -20.5 -22.9 -25.5 -26.8 Acquisitions & investments 0.3 0.0 -115.4 -50.0 0.0 Business disposals 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 Share Issues / (Buybacks) 0.0 0.5 -0.9 0.0 0.0 Translation differences 3.5 -14.9 -6.6 0.0 0.0 Other -15.7 20.9 1.3 0.0 0.0 Change in net cash / debt 9.5 34.5 -72.2 -3.7 80.1 B A L A N C E S H E E T ( € M )


GEOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS Dec11 Dec12F Dec13F Dec11 Dec12F Dec13F Revenue (€m) Operating Profits (€m)

US cheese & global nutrition 1316.9 1492.8 1584.0 108.0 136.2 150.8 Dairy Ireland 1353.3 1271.4 1271.4 53.6 47.7 48.9 Other 1.0 0.0 0.0 -0.7 0.0 0.0 Total 2671.2 2764.2 2855.4 160.9 183.9 199.7

HALF YEARLY DATA Jun08 Dec08 Jun09 CALENDAR Date Ex-Div Sales (€m) 1106.2 1126.0 944.9 Interims 29-08-12 05-09-12 Pretax Profit (€m) 53.1 67.2 38.0 Finals 29-02-12 28-03-12 EPS adjusted (c) 15.7 20.2 12.3 AGM 09-05-12 DPS (c) 2.8 3.8 2.9 Updated 05-09-12



PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 Yr Absolute 1.1 12.2 29.9 16.3 47.1 44.2 Rel to ISEQ -0.2 8.5 18.2 15.5 29.3 7.7 Rel to E300 -0.1 10.4 14.1 14.1 31.5 17.5 Rel to E300 Food Producers 3.4 17.1 26.3 12.6 38.0 21.7


2012 681 468 14.7 11.1 12.8 2011 502 355 463 14.0 9.9 12.0 2010 368 243 368 12.0 6.8 9.9 2009 300 184 289 9.9 5.7 7.3 2008 531 180 214 22.6 6.0 15.1 2007 508 312 464 22.6 15.0 17.7


EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) -14.4 24.1 21.7 15.2 8.3 Dividend (%) 6.9 2.3 18.1 5.0 5.1 Revenue (%) -18.0 18.4 23.3 3.5 3.3 EBITDA (%) -9.3 20.8 16.0 13.6 10.0 P R O F I T A B I L I T Y / A C T I V I T Y



EBITDA Int. Cover (x) 6.3 8.3 7.6 8.4 9.2 Group Interest Cover (x) 5.1 6.6 6.3 6.9 7.4 Debt / EBITDA (x) 2.9 2.2 2.2 2.0 1.5 Debt / Equity (%) 148.8 96.2 91.9 76.5 52.5 Debt / Free Cash Flow (x) 10.9 8.5 6.6 6.7 3.8 Avg. Cost of Debt (before tax) (%) 5.4 5.2 6.3 6.0 6.5 Ret. benefits deficit / market cap (%) N/A 4.5 3.6 4.4 4.4 Dividend Cover (x) 4.5 5.4 5.6 6.2 6.3 Working Capital / Revenue (%) 7.0 8.5 9.0 8.9 8.9 Net Capex / Depreciation (%) 178.1 110.4 142.0 280.0 190.0 Tax rate (%) (unadjusted) 14.4 19.0 19.3 18.4 18.4

CAGR(%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS % Revenue (%) 7.6 -0.1 Glanbia Co-op Society Ltd 54.6 EBITDA (%) 14.0 4.0 Prudential 4.1 EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 15.5 11.3 F&C Asset Management 3.1 Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) 13.2 5.5 Dividend (%) 7.4 6.2 TSR 12.4 17.5


45 Davy Research

Greencore Group

Analyst: John O' Reilly/Aiden O' Donnell Xetra: GC6 Email: john.o'[email protected]/[email protected] Bloomberg: GNC LN Phone: +353 1 6148915/+353 1 6724211 RIC: GNC.L Sector: Food manufacturers www.greencore.ie


SUMMARY ACCOUNTS N/A Sep10 Sep11 Sep12F Sep13F I N C O M E S T A T E M E N T ( £ M )

Revenue N/A 739.9 804.2 1187.5 1197.4 EBITDA N/A 68.8 68.6 95.7 100.4 Depreciation N/A 16.8 17.1 24.0 24.0 Amortisation of intangibles N/A 2.0 2.6 9.5 9.5 Operating profit N/A 50.0 48.9 62.2 66.9 Other income from operations N/A 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Share of associate / JV after-tax profits N/A 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 PBIT before exceptionals N/A 50.4 49.3 62.7 67.4 Group net interest N/A -23.8 -13.9 -22.0 -19.0 Other finance costs N/A 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total finance costs N/A -23.8 -13.9 -22.0 -19.0 Exceptionals N/A 2.3 -24.3 -7.0 0.0 PBT N/A 29.0 11.2 33.7 48.4 Tax N/A -4.7 8.7 -2.7 -3.9 Minorities (incl. pref. divs.) N/A -0.5 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 Earnings (basic) N/A 29.7 19.1 30.3 43.8 Average no. of shares (m) - basic N/A 259.3 273.9 383.4 383.4 Average no. of shares (m) - diluted N/A 262.5 276.3 383.4 383.4 P E R S H A R E D A T A ( P )

EPS Basic N/A 11.4 7.0 7.9 11.4 EPS Diluted (Adj) N/A 11.3 10.4 11.5 13.2 Cash EPS (Diluted) N/A 17.7 16.6 17.7 19.4 Dividend N/A 7.5 5.4 4.3 4.9 NBV N/A 56.9 69.4 53.3 59.5 NBV (incl. amortisation of intangibles) N/A 57.7 71.0 57.0 65.6 C A S H F L O W ( £ M )

EBITDA N/A 68.8 68.6 95.7 100.4 Change in working capital N/A 21.3 -1.6 6.3 -0.3 Share-based payments N/A 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.7 Other operating cashflows N/A -13.4 -34.9 -19.0 -10.7 Cash generated from operations N/A 78.2 33.9 84.7 91.1 Net capital expenditure N/A -21.3 -23.0 -38.0 -31.1 Operating cashflow N/A 56.9 10.9 46.7 60.0 Net interest N/A -24.1 -19.8 -22.0 -19.0 Tax N/A -1.1 -2.4 -2.7 -3.9 Dividends from associates N/A 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Dividends to minorities N/A 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.0 Free cash flow N/A 31.7 -11.6 22.0 37.1 Dividends to shareholders N/A -11.4 -10.8 -17.6 -20.2 Acquisitions & investments N/A 90.1 -3.2 -134.7 0.0 Business disposals N/A 0.0 0.9 0.0 0.0 Share Issues / (Buybacks) N/A -1.7 67.0 0.0 0.0 Translation differences N/A -1.8 -0.8 0.0 0.0 Other N/A -271.0 -17.2 -16.4 -3.0 Change in net cash / debt N/A -164.1 24.3 -146.6 13.9 B A L A N C E S H E E T ( £ M )

Property, plant & equipment N/A 184.5 214.8 244.8 252.0 Intangible assets N/A 343.2 472.2 468.7 459.2 Investments in associates / jv's N/A 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 Working capital N/A -96.7 -101.8 -108.1 -107.8 Other N/A 37.5 27.5 49.3 49.3 Capital Employed N/A 469.1 613.3 655.3 653.2 Financed by Equity capital & reserves N/A 149.3 191.6 204.4 228.0 Minority interests N/A 2.4 3.0 3.0 3.0 Preference shares N/A 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Net Debt/(Cash) N/A 164.1 139.8 286.4 272.5 Deferred consideration/debt-related N/A 0.0 113.3 0.0 0.0 Retirement benefit obligations N/A 100.5 130.2 118.2 106.2 Net deferred tax N/A -2.1 -22.4 -22.4 -22.4 Other long-term liabilities N/A 54.9 57.7 65.8 66.0 Capital Employed N/A 469.1 613.3 655.3 653.2 Intangibles amortised N/A 2.0 4.7 14.2 23.7 Capital employed inc. intangibles N/A 471.1 617.9 669.5 676.9 Invested capital inc. intangibles N/A 317.9 452.4 507.9 527.1

DIVISIONAL ANALYSIS Sep11 Sep12F Sep13F Sep11 Sep12F Sep13F Revenue (£m) Op. Profit (pre am.) (£m)

Ingredients & Agribusiness 72.0 73.0 74.0 2.2 2.2 2.2 Food Manufacturers 732.2 1114.5 1123.0 49.3 69.5 74.2 Total 804.2 1187.5 1197.0 51.5 71.7 76.4



P/E 7.7 7.0 6.1 0.5 0.5 0.4 Dividend Yield (%) 6.7 5.3 6.2 2.3 1.6 1.8 Free Cash Flow Yield (pre divs) (%) N/A 7.0 11.9 Price / Book 1.16 1.51 1.35 0.4 0.6 0.5 EV / Revenue 0.59 0.51 0.49 EV / EBITDA 7.0 6.3 5.9 EV / EBITA 9.3 8.4 7.7 EV / Operating Cashflow 43.8 12.9 9.8 EV / Invested Capital 1.06 1.19 1.12 PEG (Hist P/E/4yr gwth) N/A

PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 Yr Absolute 0.6 0.6 7.4 -1.8 55.0 60.7 Rel to FTSE All Share Index -1.5 -0.9 -1.6 -1.8 43.4 41.0 Rel to E300 -1.7 -3.9 -5.3 -1.2 43.0 40.8 Rel to E300 Food Producers 1.7 2.0 4.9 -2.4 50.0 45.8


2012 84 51 8.1 4.9 6.9 2011 91 47 52 8.1 4.1 6.0 2010 100 69 86 8.8 6.0 7.4 2009 121 48 97 8.5 3.3 5.8 2008 274 58 72 15.1 3.4 9.1 2007 297 218 274 18.0 13.3 15.0

KEY RATIOS N/A Sep10 Sep11 Sep12F Sep13F G R O W T H

EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) N/A N/A -7.4 10.0 14.8 Dividend (%) N/A N/A -28.0 -21.3 16.2 Revenue (%) N/A N/A 8.7 47.7 0.8 EBITDA (%) N/A N/A -0.3 39.5 4.9 P R O F I T A B I L I T Y / A C T I V I T Y

EBITDA margin (%) N/A 9.3 8.5 8.1 8.4 EBITA margin (%) N/A 7.0 6.4 6.0 6.4 Revenue / Capital Employed (x) N/A 1.57 1.48 1.85 1.78 R E T U R N

ROCE (before tax, ex. invs) (%) N/A 12.3 9.5 11.1 11.4 ROE (after tax) (%) N/A 23.4 16.6 21.2 21.5 Ret. on Inv. Cap. (after tax) (%) N/A 15.6 12.1 14.2 13.9 WACC (%) N/A 5.9 8.3 8.7 6.7 F I N A N C I A L / G E N E R A L

EBITDA Int. Cover (x) N/A 2.9 4.9 4.4 5.3 Group Interest Cover (x) N/A 2.1 3.6 2.8 3.5 Debt / EBITDA (x) N/A 2.4 3.7 3.0 2.7 Debt / Equity (%) N/A 108.1 130.1 138.2 118.0 Debt / Free Cash Flow (x) N/A 5.2 N/A 13.0 7.3 Avg. Cost of Debt (before tax) (%) N/A 14.5 9.1 10.3 6.8 Ret. benefits deficit / market cap (%) N/A 47.9 84.1 37.8 33.9 Dividend Cover (x) N/A 1.5 1.9 2.7 2.7 Working Capital / Revenue (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Net Capex / Depreciation (%) N/A 126.9 134.6 158.3 129.7 Tax rate (%) (unadjusted) N/A 16.2 N/A 8.0 8.0

CAGR(%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS % Revenue (%) N/A N/A Polaris Capital Mgmt 15.0 EBITDA (%) N/A N/A Letko Brosseau & Assoc 11.9 EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) N/A N/A Sheffield Asset Management 7.2 Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) N/A N/A Gartmore 3.7 Dividend (%) N/A N/A Artemis 3.0 TSR -19.4 -4.8


46 Davy Research

Heineken

Analyst: Barry Gallagher Email: [email protected] Bloomberg: HEIA NA Phone: +353 1 6149194 RIC: HEIN.AS Sector: Beverage www.heinekeninternational.com



Revenue 14701.0 16133.0 17123.0 18142.5 21165.9 EBITDA 2713.0 3559.0 3620.0 3919.8 4655.7 Depreciation 1000.0 1050.0 998.0 1168.0 1310.5 Amortisation of intangibles 83.0 79.0 170.0 170.0 170.0 Operating profit 1630.0 2430.0 2452.0 2581.8 3175.2 Other income from operations 127.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Share of associate / JV after-tax profits 0.0 193.0 241.0 236.5 141.0 PBIT before exceptionals 1757.0 2623.0 2693.0 2818.3 3316.2 Group net interest -329.0 -509.0 -430.0 -472.0 -574.0 Other finance costs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total finance costs -329.0 -509.0 -430.0 -472.0 -574.0 Exceptionals 0.0 -132.0 -242.0 -12.0 -170.0 PBT 1428.0 1982.0 2021.0 2334.3 2572.2 Tax -286.0 -403.0 -465.0 -612.2 -702.3 Minorities (incl. pref. divs.) -124.0 -132.0 -130.0 -140.0 -150.0 Earnings (basic) 1018.0 1447.0 1426.0 1582.0 1719.9 Average no. of shares (m) - basic 488.7 562.2 586.0 577.0 576.0 Average no. of shares (m) - diluted 490.0 563.4 586.0 577.0 576.0 P E R S H A R E D A T A ( C )


EBITDA 2713.0 3559.0 3620.0 3919.8 4655.7 Change in working capital 220.0 454.0 251.0 91.2 36.7 Share-based payments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other operating cashflows 96.0 -465.0 -151.0 161.8 4.0 Cash generated from operations 3029.0 3548.0 3720.0 4172.8 4696.4 Net capital expenditure -894.0 -648.0 -755.0 -1200.0 -1100.0 Operating cashflow 2135.0 2900.0 2965.0 2972.8 3596.4 Net interest -467.0 -539.0 -420.0 -472.0 -574.0 Tax -245.0 -443.0 -526.0 -612.2 -702.3 Dividends from associates 62.0 91.0 137.0 0.0 0.0 Dividends to minorities -70.0 -80.0 -91.0 -112.0 -120.0 Free cash flow 1415.0 1929.0 2065.0 1776.6 2200.1 Dividends to shareholders -322.0 -403.0 -489.0 -598.6 -627.3 Acquisitions & investments 1466.0 -1448.0 -899.0 0.0 0.0 Business disposals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Share Issues / (Buybacks) -13.0 -381.0 -687.0 -250.0 -250.0 Translation differences 5.0 0.0 6.0 0.0 0.0 Other -1268.0 -95.0 -114.0 -5188.0 120.0 Change in net cash / debt 1283.0 -398.0 -118.0 -4260.0 1442.8 B A L A N C E S H E E T ( € M )

Property, plant & equipment 6017.0 7687.0 7860.0 8839.1 8611.6 Intangible assets 7135.0 10890.0 10835.0 15048.6 15041.6 Investments in associates / jv's 1995.0 2776.0 2893.0 3230.0 3471.0 Working capital -376.0 -769.0 -1012.0 -1103.2 -1140.0 Other 319.0 655.0 293.0 293.0 293.0 Capital Employed 15090.0 21239.0 20869.0 26307.5 26277.2 Financed by Equity capital & reserves 5351.0 10228.0 9774.0 10924.0 12306.0 Minority interests 296.0 289.0 318.0 346.0 376.0 Preference shares 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Net Debt/(Cash) 8058.0 8456.0 8574.0 12834.0 11391.3 Deferred consideration/debt-related 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Retirement benefit obligations 634.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Net deferred tax 225.0 740.0 580.0 580.0 580.0 Other long-term liabilities 525.6 1526.0 1623.0 1623.4 1624.0 Capital Employed 15090.0 21239.0 20869.0 26307.5 26277.2 Intangibles amortised 265.0 344.0 514.0 684.0 854.0 Capital employed inc. intangibles 15355.0 21583.0 21383.0 26991.5 27131.2 Invested capital inc. intangibles 13970.0 19317.0 19180.0 24788.0 24927.3 * EBIT BEIA - company definition

GEOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS Dec11 Dec12F Dec13F Dec11 Dec12F Dec13F Revenue (€m) Operating Profits (€m)*

Western Europe 7752.0 7840.2 7906.7 961.0 948.6 988.3 Central & Eastern Europe 3229.0 3304.1 3406.9 329.0 298.3 333.9 Americas 4029.0 4413.3 4608.0 576.0 670.7 709.6 Africa & Middle East 2223.0 2670.5 2937.4 534.0 639.9 705.0 Asia Pacific 216.0 239.4 2640.0 65.0 75.2 488.4 Head Office/eliminations -326.0 -325.0 -333.0 -13.0 -51.0 -50.0 Total 17123.0 18142.5 21165.9 2452.0 2581.8 3175.2




PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 Yr Absolute -4.4 -4.2 11.1 1.1 18.1 25.9 Rel to Amsterdam Exchange -4.6 -5.7 -4.1 -0.4 9.0 1.8 Rel to E300 -5.5 -5.8 -2.5 -0.9 5.5 2.6 Rel to E300 Beverages -1.4 -1.2 0.2 -8.4 -6.4 -14.8


2012 4598 3502 17.1 13.8 15.3 2011 4313 3205 3577 17.7 12.7 15.3 2010 3855 3290 3669 18.6 15.5 17.0 2009 3425 1997 3327 16.6 9.4 12.7 2008 4403 1968 2190 23.2 8.4 15.9 2007 4830 3579 4422 25.4 18.7 22.3


EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 4.1 20.0 4.3 5.2 15.6 Dividend (%) 11.3 10.1 3.9 10.1 10.3 Revenue (%) 2.7 9.7 6.1 6.0 16.7 EBITDA (%) -4.0 31.2 1.7 8.3 18.8 P R O F I T A B I L I T Y / A C T I V I T Y



EBITDA Int. Cover (x) 8.2 7.0 8.4 8.3 8.1 Group Interest Cover (x) 5.3 5.2 6.3 6.0 5.8 Debt / EBITDA (x) 3.0 2.4 2.4 3.3 2.4 Debt / Equity (%) 142.7 80.4 85.0 113.9 89.8 Debt / Free Cash Flow (x) 5.7 4.4 4.2 7.2 5.2 Avg. Cost of Debt (before tax) (%) 3.8 6.2 5.0 4.4 4.7 Ret. benefits deficit / market cap (%) 3.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A Dividend Cover (x) 3.1 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.4 Working Capital / Revenue (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Net Capex / Depreciation (%) 89.4 61.7 75.7 102.7 83.9 Tax rate (%) (unadjusted) 20.0 20.3 23.0 26.2 27.3

CAGR(%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS % Revenue (%) 10.2 N/A Heineken Holding NV 50.0 EBITDA (%) 11.4 N/A FEMSA 10.1 EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 7.3 N/A Credit Suisse 3.4 Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) 5.0 N/A Dividend (%) 5.7 N/A TSR 0.2 3.9


47 Davy Research

Kerry Group

Analyst: John O'Reilly Xetra: KRZ Email: john.o'[email protected] Bloomberg: KYG ID Phone: +353 1 6148915 RIC: KYGa.I Sector: Ingredients www.kerrygroup.com



Revenue 4520.7 4960.0 5302.2 5851.3 6094.9 EBITDA 519.6 618.6 601.6 694.0 739.7 Depreciation 97.2 148.4 100.8 133.0 136.0 Amortisation of intangibles 16.8 16.1 19.3 25.7 30.9 Operating profit 405.6 454.2 481.5 535.4 572.8 Other income from operations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Share of associate / JV after-tax profits 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 PBIT before exceptionals 405.6 454.2 481.5 535.4 572.8 Group net interest -69.8 -60.5 -46.0 -55.5 -46.5 Other finance costs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total finance costs -69.8 -60.5 -46.0 -55.5 -46.5 Exceptionals -83.9 -0.8 -1.8 -125.0 -75.0 PBT 251.9 392.8 433.7 354.9 451.3 Tax -50.6 -68.6 -72.7 -81.6 -89.5 Minorities (incl. pref. divs.) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Earnings (basic) 201.2 324.2 361.0 273.3 361.9 Average no. of shares (m) - basic 175.0 175.3 175.5 175.6 175.7 Average no. of shares (m) - diluted 175.0 175.3 175.6 175.7 175.8 P E R S H A R E D A T A ( C )


EBITDA 519.6 618.6 601.6 694.0 739.7 Change in working capital 132.4 -21.5 -3.8 -48.1 -37.4 Share-based payments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other operating cashflows -42.3 -68.9 -50.7 -100.7 -100.7 Cash generated from operations 609.8 528.2 547.1 545.3 601.6 Net capital expenditure -108.7 -151.0 -164.1 -199.9 -207.2 Operating cashflow 501.0 377.2 383.0 345.3 394.4 Net interest -78.0 -57.6 -46.6 -55.5 -46.5 Tax -57.1 -54.2 -75.9 -81.6 -89.5 Dividends from associates 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Dividends to minorities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Free cash flow 366.0 265.3 260.5 208.2 258.4 Dividends to shareholders -40.8 -45.8 -52.4 -62.2 -68.5 Acquisitions & investments -291.1 -150.7 -359.2 -15.0 0.0 Business disposals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Share Issues / (Buybacks) 3.0 3.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 Translation differences 4.2 -40.5 -20.3 0.0 0.0 Other -37.3 15.6 -4.4 1.0 0.0 Change in net cash / debt 4.0 47.6 -175.8 132.0 189.9 B A L A N C E S H E E T ( € M )


DIVISIONAL ANALYSIS Dec11 Dec12F Dec13F Dec11 Dec12F Dec13F Revenue (€m) Op. Profit (pre am.) (€m)

Ingredients 3706.4 4215.2 4435.1 439.0 506.7 543.3 Foods 1673.5 1718.8 1752.6 130.0 132.5 137.6 Other -77.7 -82.7 -92.8 -68.2 -78.2 -77.2 Total 5302.2 5851.3 6094.9 500.8 561.0 603.7




PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 Yr Absolute -0.8 -3.2 5.9 10.5 30.8 45.4 Rel to ISEQ -2.0 -6.5 -3.6 9.7 14.9 8.6 Rel to E300 -2.0 -4.8 -7.0 8.4 16.9 18.5 Rel to E300 Food Producers 1.4 1.0 3.0 6.9 22.7 22.8


2012 3900 2745 18.3 14.3 16.2 2011 3011 2367 2829 15.9 12.8 14.3 2010 2703 2050 2497 16.2 12.6 14.5 2009 2200 1320 2058 14.3 9.0 11.3 2008 2245 1310 1310 16.8 9.1 13.1 2007 2275 1778 2170 17.0 13.3 15.4


EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 8.2 15.4 11.1 10.2 9.0 Dividend (%) 11.1 15.2 11.8 10.0 10.0 Revenue (%) -5.6 9.7 6.9 10.4 4.2 EBITDA (%) 3.3 19.0 -2.7 15.4 6.6 P R O F I T A B I L I T Y / A C T I V I T Y




CAGR(%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS % Revenue (%) 2.7 5.9 Kerry Co-Op Creameries 17.1 EBITDA (%) 4.3 6.2 The Capital Group Companies 5.6 EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 9.8 9.3 Prudential 3.0 Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) 7.4 7.8 Dividend (%) 12.3 12.4 TSR 12.7 11.3


48 Davy Research

Naturex

Analyst: Jack Gorman/Aiden O'Donnell Email: [email protected]/[email protected] Bloomberg: NRX FP Phone: +353 1 6148926/+353 1 6724211 RIC: NATU.PA Sector: Ingredients www.naturex.com



Revenue 101.9 226.3 253.6 291.7 315.0 EBITDA 18.0 36.9 39.7 47.4 51.4 Depreciation 4.6 9.8 10.9 12.0 13.0 Amortisation of intangibles 0.7 1.5 1.8 3.0 3.0 Operating profit 13.1 27.3 30.1 35.4 38.4 Other income from operations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Share of associate / JV after-tax profits -1.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 PBIT before exceptionals 11.9 27.3 30.1 35.4 38.4 Group net interest -4.1 -5.6 -4.8 -4.1 -4.0 Other finance costs -0.5 -0.7 0.2 -0.6 0.0 Total finance costs -4.7 -6.2 -4.6 -4.7 -4.0 Exceptionals 0.0 0.0 -1.6 -3.2 0.0 PBT 7.2 21.1 23.9 27.5 34.4 Tax -1.9 -6.2 -8.3 -9.3 -11.0 Minorities (incl. pref. divs.) 0.0 -0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Earnings (basic) 5.2 14.8 15.6 18.2 23.4 Average no. of shares (m) - basic 3.0 6.4 6.7 7.7 7.7 Average no. of shares (m) - diluted 3.2 6.6 7.0 7.9 7.9 P E R S H A R E D A T A ( C )


EBITDA 18.0 36.9 39.7 47.4 51.4 Change in working capital 0.0 -10.1 -11.9 -21.3 -10.5 Share-based payments 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 Other operating cashflows 0.5 -3.6 2.3 -3.2 0.0 Cash generated from operations 18.7 23.4 30.2 23.1 41.1 Net capital expenditure -8.2 -10.8 -21.0 -25.0 -20.0 Operating cashflow 10.5 12.5 9.1 -1.9 21.1 Net interest -4.1 -6.1 -4.7 -4.1 -4.0 Tax -0.6 -6.3 -4.5 -9.3 -11.0 Dividends from associates 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Dividends to minorities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Free cash flow 5.7 0.1 -0.1 -15.3 6.1 Dividends to shareholders -0.4 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 Acquisitions & investments -91.1 -5.0 -4.6 -25.0 0.0 Business disposals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Share Issues / (Buybacks) 82.2 0.6 47.6 0.0 0.0 Translation differences -1.2 -0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Other -4.4 -8.8 -8.9 0.1 -0.1 Change in net cash / debt -9.2 -13.3 34.0 -40.3 5.9 B A L A N C E S H E E T ( € M )


DIVISIONAL ANALYSIS Dec11 Dec12F Dec13F Revenue (€m)

Food & Beverage 153.4 179.7 193.9 Nutrition & Health 84.5 94.6 101.9 Personal Care 3.0 6.5 8.1 Miscellaneous 12.7 10.9 11.1 Total 253.6 291.7 315.0



P/E 20.2 18.5 16.9 1.1 1.1 1.1 Dividend Yield (%) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 Free Cash Flow Yield (pre divs) (%) N/A N/A 1.8 Price / Book 1.63 1.52 1.39 0.5 0.5 0.5 EV / Revenue 1.78 1.56 1.43 EV / EBITDA 11.4 9.6 8.7 EV / EBITA 15.7 12.9 11.7 EV / Operating Cashflow 49.4 N/A 21.3 EV / Invested Capital 1.47 1.23 1.15 PEG (Hist P/E/4yr gwth) 1.29

PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 Yr Absolute -3.5 1.0 7.4 -1.1 -3.7 -3.7 Rel to CAC 40 -5.2 -2.7 -9.1 -1.6 -15.0 -20.7 Rel to E300 -4.6 -0.7 -5.7 -3.0 -13.9 -21.5 Rel to E300 Food Producers -1.3 5.4 4.5 -4.3 -9.7 -18.7


2012 5400 4300 24.0 18.1 20.6 2011 6005 4025 5190 34.0 18.8 24.9 2010 4420 2679 4073 38.2 17.2 28.9 2009 3155 1950 2785 20.2 11.7 16.9 2008 3625 1993 2518 22.9 12.5 17.2 2007 5365 3098 3625 30.5 19.4 26.3


EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 22.0 36.5 9.9 9.4 9.3 Dividend (%) 10.0 -9.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Revenue (%) 9.4 122.0 12.0 15.0 8.0 EBITDA (%) 14.6 104.6 7.5 19.4 8.4 P R O F I T A B I L I T Y / A C T I V I T Y



EBITDA Int. Cover (x) 4.4 6.6 8.3 11.6 12.9 Group Interest Cover (x) 2.9 4.9 6.3 8.6 9.6 Debt / EBITDA (x) 4.9 2.8 1.7 2.3 2.0 Debt / Equity (%) 61.3 60.5 28.9 42.6 36.9 Debt / Free Cash Flow (x) 15.6 804.1 N/A N/A 16.8 Avg. Cost of Debt (before tax) (%) 4.9 5.8 5.6 4.6 3.8 Ret. benefits deficit / market cap (%) 1.8 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.8 Dividend Cover (x) 15.0 22.5 24.7 27.1 29.6 Working Capital / Revenue (%) 77.6 42.1 43.4 45.0 45.0 Net Capex / Depreciation (%) 179.2 110.1 193.9 208.3 153.8 Tax rate (%) (unadjusted) 27.0 29.6 34.6 33.8 32.0

CAGR(%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS % Revenue (%) 30.8 N/A SGD 23.1 EBITDA (%) 32.9 N/A NATRA Group 22.9 EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 7.4 N/A Odyssee Venture 4.6 Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) 9.4 N/A Dividend (%) N/A N/A TSR 3.5 13.1


49 Davy Research

Origin Enterprises

Analyst: John O'Reilly Xetra: OIZ Email: john.o'[email protected] Bloomberg: OGN ID Phone: +353 1 6148915 RIC: OGN.I Sector: Food & Beverage www.originenterprises.ie


SUMMARY ACCOUNTS Jul09 Jul10 Jul11 Jul12F Jul13F I N C O M E S T A T E M E N T ( € M )

Revenue 1507.8 1337.1 1257.5 1244.9 1257.4 EBITDA 83.3 72.4 71.2 74.4 75.0 Depreciation 7.6 6.5 5.3 5.3 5.3 Amortisation of intangibles 3.3 3.9 4.3 6.3 6.3 Operating profit 72.4 61.9 61.7 62.9 63.5 Other income from operations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Share of associate / JV after-tax profits 3.7 11.6 14.9 12.9 14.9 PBIT before exceptionals 76.1 73.5 76.5 75.7 78.4 Group net interest -17.4 -15.2 -10.5 -7.8 -6.5 Other finance costs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total finance costs -17.4 -15.2 -10.5 -7.8 -6.5 Exceptionals -103.6 0.0 -11.4 0.0 0.0 PBT -44.8 58.3 54.6 68.0 71.9 Tax -11.9 -10.3 -13.0 -11.5 -11.9 Minorities (incl. pref. divs.) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Earnings (basic) -56.8 48.0 45.8 56.4 60.0 Average no. of shares (m) - basic 133.1 133.0 133.0 133.0 133.0 Average no. of shares (m) - diluted 137.4 137.3 138.4 138.3 138.8 P E R S H A R E D A T A ( C )

EPS Basic -42.7 36.1 34.4 42.4 45.1 EPS Diluted (Adj) 36.2 37.3 40.2 44.4 46.8 Cash EPS (Diluted) 41.7 42.0 44.0 48.2 50.6 Dividend 8.0 9.0 9.4 9.9 10.3 NBV 108.2 136.7 163.8 196.5 215.8 NBV (incl. amortisation of intangibles) 114.1 145.5 175.7 213.1 237.2 C A S H F L O W ( € M )

EBITDA 83.3 72.4 71.2 74.4 75.0 Change in working capital 2.3 9.9 -2.3 -1.3 -0.9 Share-based payments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other operating cashflows 5.3 -2.8 -6.0 -5.5 -8.0 Cash generated from operations 90.9 79.4 63.0 67.5 66.1 Net capital expenditure -7.7 -5.0 -8.2 -7.0 -7.0 Operating cashflow 83.2 74.4 54.8 60.5 59.1 Net interest -17.9 -13.5 -13.0 -7.5 -6.5 Tax -13.5 -7.9 -12.2 -11.5 -11.9 Dividends from associates 0.0 5.8 7.0 7.5 7.5 Dividends to minorities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Free cash flow 51.8 58.9 36.5 49.0 48.3 Dividends to shareholders 0.0 -10.7 -12.0 -15.4 -16.1 Acquisitions & investments -32.9 -0.1 -4.6 -5.0 0.0 Business disposals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Share Issues / (Buybacks) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Translation differences -1.6 -1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other 4.2 -5.1 -0.1 0.0 -2.8 Change in net cash / debt 21.4 41.9 19.8 28.7 29.4 B A L A N C E S H E E T ( € M )

Property, plant & equipment 86.8 129.2 94.3 96.0 97.7 Intangible assets 116.0 114.6 130.5 124.3 118.0 Investments in associates / jv's 142.8 105.7 135.1 135.1 135.1 Working capital 6.7 4.0 -35.0 -33.6 -32.7 Other 0.0 0.0 35.3 35.3 35.3 Capital Employed 352.3 353.5 360.2 357.0 353.4 Financed by Equity capital & reserves 144.0 181.8 217.8 261.3 287.1 Minority interests 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Preference shares 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Net Debt/(Cash) 153.8 111.9 92.1 63.5 34.1 Deferred consideration/debt-related 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Retirement benefit obligations 0.0 20.6 8.5 8.5 8.5 Net deferred tax 14.1 13.4 16.4 16.4 16.4 Other long-term liabilities 40.5 25.8 25.3 7.3 7.3 Capital Employed 352.3 353.5 360.2 357.0 353.4 Intangibles amortised 7.7 11.7 16.0 22.2 28.5 Capital employed inc. intangibles 360.1 365.2 376.2 379.2 381.9 Invested capital inc. intangibles 305.5 305.4 325.9 347.0 349.6

DIVISIONAL ANALYSIS Jul11 Jul12F Jul13F Jul11 Jul12F Jul13F Revenue (€m) Op. Profit (pre am.) (€m)

Food 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Agri-Nutrition 1257.5 1244.9 1257.4 66.0 65.1 65.8 Total 1257.5 1244.9 1257.4 66.0 65.1 65.8


VALUATION Jul11 Jul12F Jul13F Dec11 Dec12F Dec13F Rel to Sector


PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 Yr Absolute 5.5 9.6 34.0 9.6 38.4 31.1 Rel to ISEQ 4.2 6.0 21.9 8.8 21.6 -2.1 Rel to E300 4.2 7.8 17.7 7.5 23.7 6.9 Rel to E300 Food Producers 7.8 14.4 30.3 6.1 29.7 10.7


2012 422 306 10.5 7.8 9.1 2011 400 295 305 10.7 7.9 9.4 2010 340 210 320 9.1 5.8 7.1 2009 290 131 213 8.5 3.8 6.2 2008 539 136 140 22.5 4.0 15.4 2007 404 310 380 16.6 12.7 15.5

KEY RATIOS Jul09 Jul10 Jul11 Jul12F Jul13F G R O W T H

EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 6.2 3.1 7.7 10.6 5.4 Dividend (%) N/A 12.5 5.0 5.0 4.0 Revenue (%) 0.2 -11.3 -6.0 -1.0 1.0 EBITDA (%) 4.2 -13.1 -1.6 4.4 0.9 P R O F I T A B I L I T Y / A C T I V I T Y



EBITDA Int. Cover (x) 4.8 4.8 6.8 9.6 11.5 Group Interest Cover (x) N/A 4.8 7.3 9.8 12.1 Debt / EBITDA (x) 1.8 1.5 1.3 0.9 0.5 Debt / Equity (%) N/A 61.5 42.3 24.3 11.9 Debt / Free Cash Flow (x) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Avg. Cost of Debt (before tax) (%) 10.6 11.5 10.3 10.0 13.3 Ret. benefits deficit / market cap (%) N/A 6.0 1.7 1.7 1.5 Dividend Cover (x) 4.5 4.1 4.3 4.5 4.5 Working Capital / Revenue (%) 0.4 0.3 N/A N/A N/A Net Capex / Depreciation (%) 102.0 76.5 155.8 132.7 132.7 Tax rate (%) (unadjusted) N/A 17.6 23.8 17.0 16.5

CAGR(%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS % Revenue (%) 9.0 N/A ARYZTA AG 68.8 EBITDA (%) 11.1 N/A W&R Barnett 3.7 EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 11.1 N/A Capital Group 2.3 Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) 8.5 N/A Origin LTIP Trustee 0.0 Dividend (%) N/A N/A TSR 3.7 2.0


50 Davy Research

Pernod Ricard

Analyst: Barry Gallagher Email: [email protected] Bloomberg: RI FP Phone: +353 1 6149194 RIC: PERP.PA Sector: Beverage www.pernod-ricard.com


SUMMARY ACCOUNTS Jun10 Jun11 Jun12P Jun13F Jun14F I N C O M E S T A T E M E N T ( € M )

Revenue 7080.9 7643.0 8215.0 9131.3 9924.7 EBITDA 1951.7 2084.0 2464.0 2752.7 3031.6 Depreciation 127.0 141.0 318.0 318.0 318.0 Amortisation of intangibles 30.0 33.0 33.0 33.0 33.0 Operating profit 1794.7 1910.0 2113.0 2401.7 2680.6 Other income from operations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Share of associate / JV after-tax profits 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 PBIT before exceptionals 1794.7 1910.0 2113.0 2401.7 2680.6 Group net interest -507.0 -469.0 -509.0 -499.0 -419.0 Other finance costs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total finance costs -507.0 -469.0 -509.0 -499.0 -419.0 Exceptionals -88.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 PBT 1199.7 1441.0 1604.0 1902.7 2261.6 Tax -223.0 -317.0 -376.9 -456.6 -542.8 Minorities (incl. pref. divs.) -26.0 -31.0 -27.0 -35.0 -35.0 Earnings (basic) 950.7 1093.0 1200.1 1411.0 1683.8 Average no. of shares (m) - basic 258.0 258.7 258.8 258.8 258.8 Average no. of shares (m) - diluted 263.9 265.1 265.1 265.1 265.1 P E R S H A R E D A T A ( C )


EBITDA 1951.7 2084.0 2464.0 2752.7 3031.6 Change in working capital -48.0 15.0 -55.0 -200.0 -150.0 Share-based payments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other operating cashflows -127.1 -189.0 -296.0 -151.0 -201.0 Cash generated from operations 1776.6 1910.0 2113.0 2401.7 2680.6 Net capital expenditure -184.0 -183.0 -251.0 -228.3 -248.1 Operating cashflow 1592.6 1727.0 1862.0 2173.4 2432.5 Net interest -493.0 -469.0 -509.0 -499.0 -419.0 Tax -79.0 -255.0 -294.0 -433.8 -515.7 Dividends from associates 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Dividends to minorities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Free cash flow 1020.6 1003.0 1059.0 1240.6 1497.9 Dividends to shareholders -136.0 -389.0 -395.0 -465.6 -555.7 Acquisitions & investments 21.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Business disposals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Share Issues / (Buybacks) -27.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Translation differences -755.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other 116.0 931.0 -989.8 151.0 201.0 Change in net cash / debt 239.0 1545.0 -325.8 925.9 1143.2 B A L A N C E S H E E T ( € M )


GEOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS Jun12P Jun13F Jun14F Jun12P Jun13F Jun14F Revenue (€m) Operating Profits (€m)

Asia/ROW 3165.0 3782.2 4349.5 880.0 1082.2 1226.6 Americas 2167.0 2465.0 2662.2 582.0 675.4 766.7 Europe 2137.0 2190.4 2212.3 470.0 479.7 519.9 France 746.0 693.8 700.7 181.0 164.4 167.5 Total 8215.0 9131.3 9924.7 2113.0 2401.7 2680.6


VALUATION Jun12P Jun13F Jun14F Dec11P Dec12F Dec13F Rel to Sector


PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 Yr Absolute -1.3 -1.8 9.4 5.9 21.3 46.2 Rel to CAC 40 -3.0 -5.4 -7.4 5.3 7.0 20.4 Rel to E300 -2.5 -3.4 -3.9 3.8 8.4 19.2 Rel to E300 Beverages 1.8 1.4 -1.3 -4.1 -3.9 -1.0


2012 9111 7153 21.5 17.3 19.3 2011 7191 5682 7166 19.0 14.3 17.1 2010 7207 5533 7036 19.1 14.4 16.3 2009 6043 3665 5991 15.8 9.9 12.8 2008 7341 3699 4898 20.2 10.2 15.1 2007 7615 6461 7310 25.7 18.9 23.1

KEY RATIOS Jun10 Jun11 Jun12P Jun13F Jun14F G R O W T H

EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) -1.1 8.7 9.8 17.6 19.3 Dividend (%) 159.0 10.6 5.6 13.2 16.3 Revenue (%) -1.7 7.9 7.5 11.2 8.7 EBITDA (%) -3.1 6.8 18.2 11.7 10.1 P R O F I T A B I L I T Y / A C T I V I T Y



EBITDA Int. Cover (x) 3.8 4.4 4.8 5.5 7.2 Group Interest Cover (x) 3.5 4.1 4.2 4.8 6.4 Debt / EBITDA (x) 5.4 4.3 3.8 3.1 2.4 Debt / Equity (%) 113.3 95.4 85.3 70.8 55.9 Debt / Free Cash Flow (x) 10.4 9.0 8.8 6.8 4.9 Avg. Cost of Debt (before tax) (%) 4.7 4.8 5.5 5.6 5.3 Ret. benefits deficit / market cap (%) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Dividend Cover (x) 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.2 Working Capital / Revenue (%) 44.9 39.4 35.8 34.0 33.0 Net Capex / Depreciation (%) 144.9 129.8 78.9 71.8 78.0 Tax rate (%) (unadjusted) 18.6 22.0 23.5 24.0 24.0

CAGR(%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS % Revenue (%) 5.0 N/A Societe Paul Ricard 13.8 EBITDA (%) 8.5 N/A Groupe Bruxelles Lambert 7.5 EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 4.8 N/A Capital Research & Mgmt 5.6 Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) 6.6 N/A Franklin Resources 3.7 Dividend (%) 5.4 N/A TSR 6.1 13.7


51 Davy Research

Robertet

Analyst: Aiden O'Donnell/Jack Gorman Email: [email protected]/[email protected] Bloomberg: RBT FP Phone: +353 1 6724211/+353 1 6148926 RIC: ROBF.PA Sector: Ingredients www.robertet.com



Revenue 305.1 362.3 373.3 385.4 397.0 EBITDA 32.1 49.5 50.0 54.3 56.0 Depreciation 8.8 9.4 12.3 12.7 13.1 Amortisation of intangibles 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Operating profit 23.3 40.1 37.7 41.6 42.9 Other income from operations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Share of associate / JV after-tax profits 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 PBIT before exceptionals 23.3 40.1 37.7 41.6 42.9 Group net interest -2.4 -2.0 -2.5 -2.3 -2.2 Other finance costs 2.4 -0.2 0.7 0.0 0.0 Total finance costs 0.0 -2.2 -1.8 -2.3 -2.2 Exceptionals -1.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 PBT 22.0 37.9 35.9 39.3 40.7 Tax -8.9 -13.7 -12.3 -13.8 -14.2 Minorities (incl. pref. divs.) -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 0.0 0.0 Earnings (basic) 13.0 24.0 23.3 25.5 26.5 Average no. of shares (m) - basic 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3 Average no. of shares (m) - diluted 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3 P E R S H A R E D A T A ( C )


EBITDA 32.1 49.5 50.0 54.3 56.0 Change in working capital 8.4 -7.4 -22.0 6.0 -4.0 Share-based payments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other operating cashflows 1.2 1.7 -2.0 -1.0 0.1 Cash generated from operations 41.7 43.8 26.0 59.3 52.1 Net capital expenditure -12.1 -19.1 -10.1 -17.3 -17.9 Operating cashflow 29.6 24.7 15.9 42.0 34.2 Net interest -2.0 -1.5 -1.9 -2.3 -2.2 Tax -7.2 -9.2 -13.5 -13.8 -14.2 Dividends from associates 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Dividends to minorities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Free cash flow 20.4 14.0 0.5 25.9 17.8 Dividends to shareholders -4.0 -4.4 -6.1 -6.4 -6.6 Acquisitions & investments 0.0 -0.6 -1.6 0.0 0.0 Business disposals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Share Issues / (Buybacks) 0.0 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 Translation differences 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other -1.4 -2.9 -3.3 0.7 0.1 Change in net cash / debt 15.0 7.0 -10.5 20.2 11.3 B A L A N C E S H E E T ( € M )


DIVISIONAL ANALYSIS Dec11 Dec12F Dec13F Dec11 Dec12F Dec13F Revenue (€m) Operating Profits (€m)

Flavour Additives 143.3 147.6 152.1 16.8 19.3 19.8 Perfumes 137.2 141.3 145.6 11.5 12.7 13.1 Natural Raw Materials 92.8 96.5 99.4 9.4 9.6 9.9 Total 373.3 385.4 397.1 37.7 41.6 42.9




PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 Yr Absolute -3.2 0.4 0.0 -3.2 0.8 9.0 Rel to CAC 40 -4.9 -3.3 -15.3 -3.7 -11.0 -10.2 Rel to E300 -4.4 -1.2 -12.2 -5.1 -9.9 -11.1 Rel to E300 Food Producers -1.1 4.8 -2.7 -6.3 -5.5 -8.0


2012 12900 11700 12.5 10.3 11.1 2011 13250 10666 12000 14.0 9.5 11.3 2010 11200 7700 10800 16.9 10.6 13.9 2009 8500 6000 8499 15.6 9.4 12.6 2008 10500 6810 7200 16.5 9.0 12.0 2007 14350 10185 10600 22.4 15.9 19.9


EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 8.2 66.3 -3.4 9.4 3.9 Dividend (%) 11.1 35.0 0.0 3.7 3.6 Revenue (%) 0.6 18.8 3.0 3.2 3.0 EBITDA (%) 9.5 54.2 1.0 8.6 3.1 P R O F I T A B I L I T Y / A C T I V I T Y




CAGR(%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS % Revenue (%) 11.0 N/A Maubert 50.6 EBITDA (%) 10.2 N/A First Eagle Funds 25.2 EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 10.1 N/A International Value Advisors 10.6 Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) 11.6 N/A Dividend (%) 7.3 N/A TSR 0.2 5.9


52 Davy Research

Südzucker

Analyst: Jack Gorman Email: [email protected] Bloomberg: SZU GY Phone: +353 1 6148926 RIC: SZUG.DE Sector: Sweeteners www.suedzucker.de


SUMMARY ACCOUNTS Feb10 Feb11 Feb12P Feb13F Feb14F I N C O M E S T A T E M E N T ( € M )

Revenue 5718.2 6160.8 6991.9 7285.4 7289.7 EBITDA 649.1 763.8 1015.7 1139.4 1112.9 Depreciation 256.7 245.0 264.4 280.0 290.0 Amortisation of intangibles 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Operating profit 392.4 518.8 751.3 859.4 822.9 Other income from operations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Share of associate / JV after-tax profits 2.0 4.1 0.9 16.5 22.0 PBIT before exceptionals 394.4 522.9 752.2 875.9 844.9 Group net interest -84.9 -73.4 -76.5 -81.2 -72.0 Other finance costs 38.9 -0.7 -23.0 0.0 0.0 Total finance costs -46.0 -74.1 -99.5 -81.2 -72.0 Exceptionals -5.7 -8.1 7.7 0.0 0.0 PBT 342.7 440.7 660.4 794.7 772.9 Tax -72.0 -96.0 -145.5 -106.5 -177.7 Minorities (incl. pref. divs.) -50.1 -68.1 -112.4 -110.2 -113.5 Earnings (basic) 194.4 250.4 376.2 551.7 455.4 Average no. of shares (m) - basic 189.4 189.4 189.4 189.4 189.4 Average no. of shares (m) - diluted 200.7 204.4 205.8 205.8 205.8 P E R S H A R E D A T A ( C )


EBITDA 649.1 763.8 1015.7 1139.4 1112.9 Change in working capital 274.5 -14.5 -305.9 -122.2 -37.7 Share-based payments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other operating cashflows 41.3 4.0 -96.0 -0.1 0.0 Cash generated from operations 964.9 753.3 613.8 1017.1 1075.2 Net capital expenditure -216.3 -245.4 -276.1 -400.0 -350.0 Operating cashflow 748.6 507.9 337.7 617.1 725.2 Net interest -40.0 -93.0 -41.3 -81.2 -72.0 Tax -99.8 -70.1 -73.8 -106.5 -177.7 Dividends from associates 60.7 7.0 2.3 10.0 10.0 Dividends to minorities -56.9 -58.2 -63.9 -81.2 -85.2 Free cash flow 612.6 293.6 161.0 358.2 400.3 Dividends to shareholders -75.7 -85.2 -104.1 -132.2 -138.8 Acquisitions & investments 0.0 0.0 -10.1 -214.6 0.0 Business disposals 25.3 20.0 32.6 0.0 0.0 Share Issues / (Buybacks) 51.7 0.0 -4.6 0.0 0.0 Translation differences 10.5 0.0 -4.4 0.0 0.0 Other -57.1 -16.7 -7.6 0.1 0.1 Change in net cash / debt 567.3 211.7 62.8 11.5 261.6 B A L A N C E S H E E T ( € M )

Property, plant & equipment 2551.5 2554.9 2554.1 2709.1 2769.1 Intangible assets 1189.1 1188.1 1191.6 1191.6 1191.6 Investments in associates / jv's 19.0 11.1 12.3 191.9 191.9 Working capital 1520.4 1609.3 1954.1 2076.4 2114.0 Other 66.3 85.1 58.9 58.9 58.9 Capital Employed 5346.3 5448.5 5771.0 6227.9 6325.5 Financed by Equity capital & reserves 2954.4 3148.9 3300.1 3719.9 4036.7 Minority interests 545.8 594.7 669.1 779.3 892.7 Preference shares 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Net Debt/(Cash) 1065.2 853.5 790.7 779.2 517.6 Deferred consideration/debt-related 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Retirement benefit obligations 409.2 397.8 546.1 546.1 546.1 Net deferred tax 27.1 51.8 9.8 9.8 9.8 Other long-term liabilities 344.6 401.8 455.2 393.6 322.6 Capital Employed 5346.3 5448.5 5771.0 6227.9 6325.5 Intangibles amortised 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Capital employed inc. intangibles 5346.3 5448.5 5771.0 6227.9 6325.5 Invested capital inc. intangibles 4565.4 4597.1 4759.9 5278.4 5447.0 *Pre-exceptionals

DIVISIONAL ANALYSIS Feb12P Feb13F Feb14F Feb12P Feb13F Feb14F Revenue (€m) Operating Profits (€m)*

Sugar 3728.2 3862.0 3750.0 510.9 605.8 550.0 Special Products 1805.8 1826.8 1885.0 149.2 153.8 163.6 Crop Energies 528.9 560.7 566.1 53.0 54.8 58.5 Fruit 929.0 1035.9 1088.6 38.2 46.0 50.8 Total 6991.9 7285.4 7289.7 751.3 860.4 822.9


VALUATION Feb12P Feb13F Feb14F Dec11P Dec12F Dec13F Rel to Sector


PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 Yr Absolute 1.0 -4.8 1.4 16.0 4.0 1.4 Rel to DAX -1.8 -10.4 -16.0 10.8 -17.3 -26.9 Rel to E300 -0.3 -6.3 -10.9 13.7 -7.1 -17.3 Rel to E300 Food Producers 3.2 -0.6 -1.4 12.2 -2.5 -14.3


2012 2867 2167 19.2 12.8 16.1 2011 2611 1861 2465 21.1 14.9 18.4 2010 2039 1394 1993 20.8 13.6 16.8 2009 1588 1087 1454 28.3 13.2 19.8 2008 1619 730 1087 20.8 12.5 17.5 2007 1878 1341 1619 N/A N/A N/A

KEY RATIOS Feb10 Feb11 Feb12P Feb13F Feb14F G R O W T H

EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 20.5 24.9 44.0 47.0 -18.0 Dividend (%) 12.5 22.2 27.3 4.3 5.5 Revenue (%) -2.6 7.7 13.5 4.2 0.1 EBITDA (%) 9.1 17.7 33.0 12.2 -2.3 P R O F I T A B I L I T Y / A C T I V I T Y




CAGR(%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS % Revenue (%) 3.9 N/A SZVG 55.0 EBITDA (%) 4.9 N/A Zucker Invest GmbH 10.0 EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 6.7 N/A Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) -0.2 N/A Dividend (%) 4.9 N/A TSR 16.8 8.2


53 Davy Research

Symrise

Analyst: Jack Gorman/Aiden O'Donnell Email: [email protected]/[email protected] Bloomberg: SY1 GY Phone: +353 1 6148926/+353 1 6724211 RIC: SY1G.DE Sector: Ingredients www.symrise.com



Revenue 1362.0 1571.9 1583.6 1689.1 1752.3 EBITDA 265.4 331.1 315.9 344.4 362.4 Depreciation 38.3 40.3 40.4 40.5 40.7 Amortisation of intangibles 44.2 46.3 41.0 44.7 43.3 Operating profit 182.9 244.4 234.4 259.2 278.4 Other income from operations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Share of associate / JV after-tax profits 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 PBIT before exceptionals 182.9 244.4 234.4 259.2 278.4 Group net interest -46.3 -66.9 -38.5 -36.7 -33.5 Other finance costs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total finance costs -46.3 -66.9 -38.5 -36.7 -33.5 Exceptionals -19.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 PBT 116.7 177.5 195.9 222.5 244.9 Tax -32.4 -44.0 -49.3 -56.0 -61.2 Minorities (incl. pref. divs.) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Earnings (basic) 84.3 133.5 146.5 166.5 183.7 Average no. of shares (m) - basic 118.2 118.2 118.2 118.2 118.2 Average no. of shares (m) - diluted 118.2 118.2 118.2 118.2 118.2 P E R S H A R E D A T A ( C )


EBITDA 265.4 331.1 315.9 344.4 362.4 Change in working capital 32.6 -52.2 -45.6 -33.5 -17.7 Share-based payments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other operating cashflows -24.1 1.0 -5.2 0.0 0.0 Cash generated from operations 273.9 279.8 265.1 310.9 344.7 Net capital expenditure -54.4 -65.7 -55.8 -76.0 -78.9 Operating cashflow 219.5 214.1 209.3 234.9 265.8 Net interest -23.8 -40.2 -21.7 -31.7 -28.5 Tax -48.2 -44.8 -64.2 -56.0 -61.2 Dividends from associates 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Dividends to minorities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Free cash flow 147.5 129.2 123.5 147.2 176.1 Dividends to shareholders -59.1 -59.1 -70.9 -75.7 -80.0 Acquisitions & investments -21.2 -2.8 -3.0 -13.1 0.0 Business disposals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Share Issues / (Buybacks) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Translation differences 1.4 8.6 -4.0 0.0 0.0 Other -1.0 -23.2 -5.8 -0.1 0.1 Change in net cash / debt 67.6 52.7 39.7 58.3 96.2 B A L A N C E S H E E T ( € M )

Property, plant & equipment 386.0 418.7 431.5 467.0 505.1 Intangible assets 837.7 863.4 834.3 802.7 759.4 Investments in associates / jv's 7.9 8.6 18.9 18.0 18.0 Working capital 358.4 409.3 439.4 472.9 490.7 Other -26.3 -54.1 -28.4 -28.5 -30.0 Capital Employed 1563.6 1645.9 1695.5 1732.1 1743.2 Financed by Equity capital & reserves 689.0 842.1 913.7 1004.5 1108.2 Minority interests 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Preference shares 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Net Debt/(Cash) 574.0 521.3 481.6 423.3 327.1 Deferred consideration/debt-related 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Retirement benefit obligations 199.4 212.4 221.6 221.6 221.6 Net deferred tax 59.0 44.4 53.2 53.2 53.2 Other long-term liabilities 42.2 25.7 25.4 29.5 33.1 Capital Employed 1563.6 1645.9 1695.5 1732.1 1743.2 Intangibles amortised 167.0 213.3 254.3 299.0 342.3 Capital employed inc. intangibles 1730.6 1859.2 1949.9 2031.1 2085.5 Invested capital inc. intangibles 1429.9 1576.7 1649.7 1726.8 1777.6

DIVISIONAL ANALYSIS Dec11 Dec12F Dec13F Dec11 Dec12F Dec13F Revenue (€m) EBITDA (€m)

Scent & Care 801.4 860.6 891.2 157.6 167.8 182.5 Flavour & Nutrition 782.3 828.6 861.1 158.4 176.5 179.9 Total 1583.7 1689.2 1752.3 316.0 344.3 362.4

QUARTERLY DATA Dec11 Dec12 Dec13F CALENDAR Date Ex-Div EBITDA Q1 85.2 87.0 91.6 Interims 09-08-12 EBITDA Q2 77.3 83.6 87.7 Finals 14-03-12 EBITDA Q3 80.1 84.8 87.7 AGM 15-05-12 EBITDA Q4 73.4 82.3 83.1 Updated 10-08-12



PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 Yr Absolute -4.6 -2.8 9.1 20.4 23.5 40.0 Rel to DAX -7.2 -8.5 -9.7 15.0 -1.7 0.9 Rel to E300 -5.8 -4.4 -4.2 18.0 10.4 14.2 Rel to E300 Food Producers -2.5 1.4 6.1 16.5 15.8 18.2


2012 2697 2057 21.6 13.5 16.6 2011 2274 1643 2062 20.1 14.7 17.9 2010 2238 1498 2053 27.1 16.0 20.9 2009 1573 707 1498 24.6 8.5 16.4 2008 1928 775 998 20.9 9.3 15.3 2007 2220 1790 1928 N/A N/A N/A


EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 14.7 21.2 4.3 12.6 7.5 Dividend (%) 0.0 20.0 3.3 6.5 6.1 Revenue (%) 3.2 15.4 0.7 6.7 3.7 EBITDA (%) 1.3 24.7 -4.6 9.0 5.2 P R O F I T A B I L I T Y / A C T I V I T Y




CAGR(%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS % Revenue (%) 5.2 N/A M&G Investment Management 15.0 EBITDA (%) 5.7 N/A Gerberding Vermogensverwaltung 5.9 EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 34.2 N/A MFS Investment Mgmt 5.0 Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) 19.2 N/A Mondrian Investment Partners 3.2 Dividend (%) N/A N/A Standard Life Investment 3.1 TSR N/A N/A


54 Davy Research

Tate & Lyle

Analyst: Jack Gorman Email: [email protected] Bloomberg: TATE LN Phone: +353 1 6148926 RIC: TATE.L Sector: Sweeteners www.tateandlyle.com


SUMMARY ACCOUNTS Mar10 Mar11 Mar12 Mar13F Mar14F I N C O M E S T A T E M E N T ( £ M )

Revenue 2533.0 2720.0 3088.0 3230.0 3282.0 EBITDA 364.0 417.0 439.0 467.0 483.0 Depreciation 100.0 91.0 85.0 100.0 102.0 Amortisation of intangibles 20.0 18.0 18.0 18.0 18.0 Operating profit 244.0 308.0 336.0 349.0 363.0 Other income from operations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Share of associate / JV after-tax profits 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 PBIT before exceptionals 244.0 308.0 336.0 349.0 363.0 Group net interest -51.0 -50.0 -33.0 -30.0 -25.0 Other finance costs -21.0 -8.0 8.0 0.0 0.0 Total finance costs -72.0 -58.0 -25.0 -30.0 -25.0 Exceptionals -288.0 -5.0 68.0 -10.0 0.0 PBT -116.0 245.0 379.0 309.0 338.0 Tax 95.0 -49.0 -72.0 -61.0 -64.6 Minorities (incl. pref. divs.) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Earnings (basic) 15.0 163.0 307.0 248.0 273.4 Average no. of shares (m) - basic 457.0 461.5 465.7 470.0 470.0 Average no. of shares (m) - diluted 459.3 468.8 474.9 478.0 478.0 P E R S H A R E D A T A ( P )


EBITDA 364.0 417.0 439.0 467.0 483.0 Change in working capital 291.0 -101.0 -121.0 -68.0 -23.0 Share-based payments 5.0 9.0 11.0 10.0 10.0 Other operating cashflows 56.0 -100.0 -71.0 -42.0 -12.0 Cash generated from operations 716.0 225.0 258.0 367.0 458.0 Net capital expenditure -79.0 -21.0 -102.0 -135.0 -112.0 Operating cashflow 637.0 204.0 156.0 232.0 346.0 Net interest -59.0 -46.0 -40.0 -30.0 -25.0 Tax -38.0 -31.0 16.0 -45.0 -49.0 Dividends from associates 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Dividends to minorities -2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Free cash flow 538.0 127.0 132.0 157.0 272.0 Dividends to shareholders -103.0 -70.0 -112.0 -117.0 -121.0 Acquisitions & investments -21.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Business disposals -26.0 280.0 1.0 20.0 0.0 Share Issues / (Buybacks) -4.0 2.0 -16.0 0.0 0.0 Translation differences 79.0 27.0 -7.0 0.0 0.0 Other -46.0 -16.0 -10.0 0.0 0.0 Change in net cash / debt 417.0 350.0 -12.0 60.0 151.0 B A L A N C E S H E E T ( £ M )

Property, plant & equipment 1208.0 855.0 922.0 937.0 927.0 Intangible assets 340.0 320.0 325.0 307.0 289.0 Investments in associates / jv's 7.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 Working capital 329.0 338.0 352.0 420.0 443.0 Other 32.0 86.0 86.0 77.0 66.0 Capital Employed 1916.0 1604.0 1690.0 1746.0 1730.0 Financed by Equity capital & reserves 827.0 950.0 1033.0 1154.0 1296.0 Minority interests 27.0 23.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 Preference shares 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Net Debt/(Cash) 814.0 464.0 476.0 416.0 265.0 Deferred consideration/debt-related 28.0 7.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Retirement benefit obligations 257.0 139.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 Net deferred tax -84.0 -44.0 -12.0 -12.0 -12.0 Other long-term liabilities 47.0 65.0 28.0 23.0 16.0 Capital Employed 1916.0 1604.0 1690.0 1746.0 1730.0 Intangibles amortised 81.0 99.0 117.0 135.0 153.0 Capital employed inc. intangibles 1997.0 1703.0 1807.0 1881.0 1883.0 Invested capital inc. intangibles 1777.0 1543.0 1651.0 1730.0 1739.0

DIVISIONAL ANALYSIS Mar12 Mar13F Mar14F Mar12 Mar13F Mar14F Revenue (£m) Op. Profit (pre am.) (£m)

Speciality Food Ingredients 887.0 945.0 978.0 214.0 225.0 235.0 Bulk Ingredients 2201.0 2285.0 2304.0 172.0 174.0 180.0 Central 0.0 0.0 0.0 -38.0 -37.0 -39.0 Total 3088.0 3230.0 3282.0 348.0 362.0 376.0

HALF YEARLY DATA Mar09 Sep09 Mar10 CALENDAR Date Ex-Div Sales (£m) 1855.0 1823.0 1683.0 Interims 08-11-12 30-11-11 Pretax Profit (£m) -8.0 50.0 -111.0 Finals 31-05-12 27-06-12 EPS adjusted (p) 18.8 18.3 20.6 AGM 26-07-12 DPS (p) 16.1 6.8 16.1 Updated 27-07-12

VALUATION Mar12 Mar13F Mar14F Dec11 Dec12F Dec13F Rel to Sector


PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 Yr Absolute 1.8 -1.9 -0.2 -10.0 -8.3 8.8 Rel to FTSE 100 -0.3 -2.7 -7.8 -9.5 -13.6 -3.9 Rel to E300 -0.5 -6.3 -12.0 -9.3 -15.4 -4.7 Rel to E300 Food Producers 2.9 -0.6 -2.5 -10.5 -11.3 -1.3


2012 721 634 18.7 11.2 15.3 2011 705 520 705 18.2 13.4 15.6 2010 545 389 518 14.0 10.2 12.0 2009 478 230 433 12.6 6.2 9.3 2008 583 329 401 12.0 8.0 10.2 2007 775 403 445 16.4 8.3 11.5

KEY RATIOS Mar10 Mar11 Mar12 Mar13F Mar14F G R O W T H

EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 7.1 -5.2 46.2 0.5 5.7 Dividend (%) 0.0 3.5 5.1 4.4 1.9 Revenue (%) -28.7 7.4 13.5 4.6 1.6 EBITDA (%) -5.9 14.6 5.3 6.4 3.4 P R O F I T A B I L I T Y / A C T I V I T Y



EBITDA Int. Cover (x) 7.1 8.3 13.3 15.6 19.3 Group Interest Cover (x) N/A 6.2 10.2 11.6 14.5 Debt / EBITDA (x) 2.3 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.5 Debt / Equity (%) 98.6 48.4 45.0 35.3 20.1 Debt / Free Cash Flow (x) 1.6 3.7 3.6 2.6 1.0 Avg. Cost of Debt (before tax) (%) 5.0 7.8 7.0 6.7 7.3 Ret. benefits deficit / market cap (%) 12.4 5.2 4.2 4.6 4.6 Dividend Cover (x) 1.8 1.6 2.3 2.2 2.3 Working Capital / Revenue (%) 13.0 12.4 11.4 13.0 13.5 Net Capex / Depreciation (%) 79.0 23.1 120.0 135.0 109.8 Tax rate (%) (unadjusted) N/A 20.0 19.0 19.7 19.1

CAGR(%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS % Revenue (%) -0.9 N/A Invesco 9.7 EBITDA (%) 3.1 N/A Blackrock 5.4 EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 8.5 N/A Schroders Investment Mgmt 5.2 Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) 6.7 N/A Artemis 5.0 Dividend (%) 3.0 N/A AXA SA 4.9 TSR 8.6 9.7


55 Davy Research

Total Produce

Analyst: John O'Reilly Xetra: T70 Email: john.o'[email protected] Bloomberg: TOT ID Phone: +353 1 6148915 RIC: T7O.I Sector: Food & Beverage www.totalproduce.com



Revenue 2431.4 2600.5 2526.6 2703.9 2758.0 EBITDA 53.6 56.5 51.9 59.3 60.5 Depreciation 13.2 13.1 13.2 13.7 13.9 Amortisation of intangibles 5.7 5.7 5.8 5.8 5.8 Operating profit 34.7 37.6 33.0 39.7 40.8 Other income from operations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Share of associate / JV after-tax profits 1.6 1.7 3.4 3.8 3.8 PBIT before exceptionals 36.3 39.4 36.4 43.5 44.6 Group net interest -3.2 -3.4 -4.7 -7.0 -5.9 Other finance costs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total finance costs -3.2 -3.4 -4.7 -7.0 -5.9 Exceptionals -4.8 -2.4 2.7 0.0 0.0 PBT 28.4 33.6 34.4 36.5 38.7 Tax -9.2 -8.4 -7.3 -9.8 -10.8 Minorities (incl. pref. divs.) -6.2 -6.9 -4.3 -6.9 -7.2 Earnings (basic) 13.0 18.3 22.8 19.8 20.6 Average no. of shares (m) - basic 351.9 351.9 329.9 329.9 329.9 Average no. of shares (m) - diluted 351.9 349.5 329.9 329.9 329.9 P E R S H A R E D A T A ( C )


EBITDA 53.6 56.5 51.9 59.3 60.5 Change in working capital 0.9 7.0 -7.7 -6.1 -1.7 Share-based payments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other operating cashflows -5.2 -3.8 -5.2 -5.0 -3.0 Cash generated from operations 49.3 59.6 39.0 48.2 55.8 Net capital expenditure -8.4 -10.7 -14.8 -11.0 -14.0 Operating cashflow 40.9 48.9 24.2 37.2 41.8 Net interest -2.9 -3.4 -5.2 -7.1 -6.0 Tax -7.6 -9.8 -11.3 -9.8 -10.8 Dividends from associates 1.8 1.9 1.8 2.5 2.0 Dividends to minorities -5.0 -5.0 -4.9 -5.0 -5.0 Free cash flow 27.2 32.6 4.5 17.7 22.0 Dividends to shareholders -5.9 -5.9 -5.9 -6.6 -6.8 Acquisitions & investments -7.9 -7.2 -25.0 -0.8 0.0 Business disposals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Share Issues / (Buybacks) 0.0 -8.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 Translation differences 0.0 -4.0 -0.6 -3.0 0.0 Other -3.7 -4.1 -0.7 -0.0 -0.0 Change in net cash / debt 9.6 2.6 -27.6 7.3 15.1 B A L A N C E S H E E T ( € M )

Property, plant & equipment 137.1 145.3 146.5 143.8 143.9 Intangible assets 127.2 140.6 152.5 146.5 140.7 Investments in associates / jv's 33.0 34.1 40.2 40.2 40.2 Working capital 13.3 -0.6 11.5 17.6 19.3 Other 18.0 15.3 18.1 18.1 18.1 Capital Employed 328.6 334.7 368.9 366.2 362.2 Financed by Equity capital & reserves 165.2 168.6 176.7 183.2 190.0 Minority interests 55.8 58.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 Preference shares 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Net Debt/(Cash) 50.6 47.9 75.6 68.2 53.1 Deferred consideration/debt-related 15.7 19.8 12.4 18.0 17.0 Retirement benefit obligations 10.5 12.3 18.1 18.1 18.1 Net deferred tax 13.1 17.6 10.2 10.2 10.2 Other long-term liabilities 17.9 10.5 15.9 8.5 13.8 Capital Employed 328.6 334.7 368.9 366.2 362.2 Intangibles amortised 22.0 27.7 33.5 39.3 45.1 Capital employed inc. intangibles 350.6 362.4 402.4 405.5 407.3 Invested capital inc. intangibles 309.2 322.1 358.2 368.7 365.3




PRICE PERFORMANCE (%) 1 Wk 1 Mth 3 Mths 6 Mths YTD 1 Yr Absolute 4.2 14.6 16.1 -2.1 27.0 27.0 Rel to ISEQ 2.9 10.8 5.6 -2.8 11.6 -5.1 Rel to E300 3.0 12.8 1.9 -4.0 13.6 3.6 Rel to E300 Food Producers 6.5 19.6 12.9 -5.2 19.1 7.3


2012 50 38 6.8 5.3 5.9 2011 46 35 37 6.8 5.2 6.0 2010 40 32 38 6.2 4.9 5.7 2009 40 18 34 5.9 2.8 4.7 2008 66 21 26 11.6 3.2 8.4 2007 88 58 59 14.7 10.2 12.7


EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) -4.1 5.6 5.9 7.1 3.3 Dividend (%) 0.0 0.0 11.8 6.3 3.0 Revenue (%) -3.4 7.0 -2.8 7.0 2.0 EBITDA (%) -4.9 5.4 -8.1 14.2 2.1 P R O F I T A B I L I T Y / A C T I V I T Y



EBITDA Int. Cover (x) 16.9 16.4 10.9 8.5 10.3 Group Interest Cover (x) 11.5 11.4 7.7 6.2 7.6 Debt / EBITDA (x) 1.2 1.2 1.7 1.5 1.2 Debt / Equity (%) 30.0 29.9 37.2 35.5 28.0 Debt / Free Cash Flow (x) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Avg. Cost of Debt (before tax) (%) 5.7 7.0 7.7 9.7 9.7 Ret. benefits deficit / market cap (%) 8.7 9.3 14.9 11.6 11.6 Dividend Cover (x) 3.8 4.0 3.8 3.9 3.9 Working Capital / Revenue (%) 0.5 N/A 0.5 0.7 0.7 Net Capex / Depreciation (%) 63.6 81.7 112.6 80.2 100.6 Tax rate (%) (unadjusted) 32.3 24.9 21.2 26.9 27.9

CAGR(%) 5 Year 10 Year MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS % Revenue (%) 6.3 N/A Balken Investment Co 11.3 EBITDA (%) 1.7 N/A Arnsberg Investment Co 6.4 EPS Diluted (Adj) (%) 4.9 N/A Sparinvest Fondsmæglerselskab 5.4 Cash EPS (Diluted) (%) 3.7 N/A Farringdon Capital Management 4.9 Dividend (%) N/A N/A State Street Global Advisors Ireland 4.0

56 Davy Research

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57 Davy Research

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