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Reserves Estimation and Classification
Dr. Helmy Sayyouh
Petroleum Engineering
Cairo University
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Introduction
Field reservoir engineer is responsible for the estimation and classification of reserves.
Estimation techniques:
material balance calculations
sweep efficiency analysis
decline curve analysis
reservoir simulation
All reserves estimates involve some degree of uncertainty.
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Why Reserve Estimates?
Measure effectiveness of exploration and development.
Budgeting for drilling and facilities.
Unitization.
Purchase / sale of properties.
Bank loans.
Taxation.
Government policy and planning.
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Definition
Reserves are estimated quantities of crude oil, condensate, natural gas, natural gas liquids, and associated substances anticipated to be commercially recoverable:
- from known accumulations,
- under existing or anticipated economic conditions,
- by established operating practices, and
- under current or anticipated government regulations.
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Original Oil and Gas In place Calculation
Volumetric
OOIP or OGIP = (Rock Volume) x (Porosity) x (1 – Water Saturation)/ ( Formation Volume Factor )
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Recovery and Efficiency Calculations
Recovery factors : STB/acre-ft and MCF/acre-ft
Recover efficiencies: fractional recovery of OOIP or OGIP
Methods of estimation:
- analogies
- correlations
- water flood design charts
- material balance programs
- reservoir simulation
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Analogy Method
The analogous reservoirs should be similar to:
. Drive mechanism
. Permeability and porosity
. Well spacing and pattern
. Size
. Relative volumes of oil, gas and aquifer
. Degree of permeability and porosity heterogeneity
. Net-to-gross sand ratio
. Production practices
. Depositional environment and trapping mechanism
. PVT properties
Recovery factor adjustments are made to compensate for differences between
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Correlations
Depletion Drive Gas Reservoirs:
Rec. Efficiency =1 - Pa Zi / Pi Za
Water Drive Gas Reservoir:
Er=(1-PaZi/PiZa) + ((PaZi/PiZa) EvEd)
Where: Ed=(1-Swi-Sgr)/(1-Swi)
Sgr= 0.62 -1.3 Φ
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Water floods
Mobility Ratio
M = (Krw/μw) x (Kro/μo)
Recovery Efficiency
Er = Ea x (Swb – Swi)/(1-Swi)
Areal sweep efficiency, Ea, from a homogenous 5-spot water flood for a certain M can be obtained from charts.
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Ultimate Recovery
Volumetric
Ultimate Recovery = Er x OOIP or OGIP( from volumetric)
Material Balance
Ultimate Recovery = Er x OOIP or OGIP( from material balance)
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Decline Curve Analysis
Ultimate recovery is the sum of cumulative recovery to date and remaining reserves.
Remaining reserves can be calculated with decline curve analysis.
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Reservoir Simulation
Reservoir simulation incorporates a comprehensive application of physical laws governing multiphase fluid flow in porous media.
Reservoir simulation can be summarized in three-step process:
1. Setting up mathematical equations that describe fluid flow.
2. Solving the Mathematical equations.
3. Setting up the numerical model.
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Reserves Classification
Reserves are estimated quantities of crude oil, condensate, natural gas, natural gas liquids, and associated substances anticipated to be commercially recoverable:
- from known accumulations,
- under existing or anticipated economic conditions,
- by established operating practices, and
- under current or anticipated government regulations
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Reserves Classification
All reserves estimates involve some degree of uncertainty, depending on :
The amount and reliability of geologic and engineering data available at the time of the estimates.
Interpretation of these data
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Milestones in Reserves Definitions
1944: Frederic Lahee ( API )
1955: Frederic Lahee ( WPC )
1960: American Petroleum Institute
1962: Jan Arps ( SPE )
1965: SPE
1972: V .E. Mckelvey (USGSurvey)
1981: SPE
1985: SPE
1987: SPE
World Petroleum Congress(WPC)
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SPE-Endorsed Definitions of Reserves
Reserves in General
1. Known or discovered accumulations.
2. Estimated volumes: crude oil – condensate – natural gas – natural gas liquids – associated substances such as sulfur and carbon dioxide.
3. Based on interpretation of geologic and engineering data.
4. Commercially recoverable under economic, operating and regulating condition.
5. Time dependent ( production ).
6. Involve degree of uncertainty.
7. Subject to revision.
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Methods of Classifying Reserves
1. Ownership:
Total – Gross – Net
2. Recovery Mechanism:
Primary - Improved
3. Degree of Uncertainty:
Proved – Probable – Possible
4. Development Status:
Developed – Undeveloped
5. Productive Status:
Producing – Non-producing
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Proved Reserves
Proved oil and gas reserves are the estimated quantities of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids which can be recoverable:
- in future years
- from known reservoirs
- under exiting economic and operating conditions.
A confidence level of 90 to 100% is required.
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Proved Reserves
Proved reserves must have:
The area of a reservoir which includes - that portion delineated by drilling and defined by GOC and / or OWC
- the adjoining portions not yet drilled but economically productive
The facilities to process .
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Proved Reserves
Proved reserves have been divided into:
Proved Developed Reserves: are expected to be recovered through exiting wells with exiting equipment and operating methods.
Proved Undeveloped Reserves: are expected to be recovered from new wells on undrilled acreage or from exiting wells where a major expenditure is require for recompletion.
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Probable Reserves
Probable reserves are less certain than proved reserves and they are more likely to be recovered than not under mid-trend economic conditions.
A confidence level of 50 to 90% is required.
Probable reserves have been divided to:
Class 1 : Reserves representing the primary recovery from the delineated area of a known reservoir.
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Probable Reserves
Class 2: Reserves representing the primary recovery which depends on:
a. Lateral extension of the reservoir beyond the limits assumed for proved or probable class 1 reserves due to up dip or down dip extensions.
b. Undrilled fault blocks adjacent to the delineated area of a known reservoir.
c. Direct or diagonal offsets to spacing units having proved or probable class1 reserves.
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Probable Reserves
Class 3 : Reserves representing the primary recovery dependent upon the development of new reservoirs ( not yet produced or tested ) within the area of assigned proved reserves. Class 3 reserves occur in a new reservoir overlying or underlying a proved reservoir.
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Probable Reserves
Class 4 : Incremental reserves where an alternate interpretation of actual or anticipated performance or volumetric data indicates more reserves than can be classified as proved or probable class1 to 3.
Class 5 : Additional quantities likely to be recoverable through the application, expansion or modification of improved recovery techniques.
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Possible Reserves
Possible reserves are less certain than probable reserves and can be estimated with a low degree of certainty.
Insufficient to indicate whether they are more likely to be recovered than not under high-trend economic conditions.
A confidence level of 20 to 50% is required.
Possible reserves have been divided to:
Class 1 : Reserves representing the primary recovery from the delineated area of a known reservoir.
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Possible Reserves
Class 2: Reserves representing the primary recovery which depends on:
a. Lateral extension of the reservoir beyond the limits assumed for proved or probable class 1 reserves due to up dip or down dip extensions.
b. Undrilled fault blocks adjacent to the delineated area of a known reservoir.
c. Direct or diagonal offsets to spacing units having proved or probable class1 reserves
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Possible Reserves
Class 3 : Reserves representing the primary recovery dependent upon the development of new reservoirs ( not yet produced or tested ) within the area of assigned proved reserves. Class 3 reserves occur in a new reservoir overlying or underlying a proved reservoir.
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Possible Reserves
Class 4 : Incremental reserves where an alternate interpretation of actual or anticipated performance or volumetric data indicates more reserves than can be classified as proved or probable class1 to 3.
Class 5 : Additional quantities likely to be recoverable through the application, expansion or modification of improved recovery techniques.
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Problems in Reserve Classification
Frontier Areas
1. No analogous reservoirs.
2. Sparse subsurface control.
3. Remote from market.
4. High operating costs.
Heavy and Extra Heavy Crude
Thermal stimulation is required and its response is highly variable.
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Possible Future Development in Reserve Classification
Matrix to describe geologic uncertainty and feasibility of commercial extraction.
Inclusion with reserves of geologic and engineering bases for estimate
Quantification of probabilities associated with reserve classifications.
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