Resilience Lessons from Superstorm Sandy & the

Boston Marathon Bombing

A Presentation for the Local Leaders – Global Impact Speaker Series

Northeastern University – Seattle Campus February 4, 2014

Stephen E. Flynn, Ph.D. Professor of Political Science &

Director, Center for Resilience Studies Northeastern University

s.flynn@neu.edu 617-470-7675

Superstorm Sandy Stats

•  October 29, 2012 •  Landfall across 21 states •  80 MPH Winds •  820 Mile Diameter •  159 Deaths •  8.6 Million customers without power across 17 states, from NC to Maine and as far West as Illinois • $18b in federal funds for debris removal

•  1.3 Million without power a week after the storm hit •  380,000 homes damaged or destroyed • New York Stock Exchange closed for two consecutive times for the first time since 1888 •  Outage of 25% of cell towers in 10 states

Superstorm Sandy – a “predictive surprise”

Goldman Sachs Headquarters 200 West St. New York, NY

Citibank Headquarters 388 Greenwich Street New York,

NY

Case Study I: Private Sector Resilience: Oct 28, 2012

Metropolitan Transportation Authority: 1. Moved Trains to high ground and shelter 2. Provided incentive for workforce to stay on the job

Case Study II: Public Sector Resilience

“Experience Can be a Problematic Guide” New Jersey Transit moved trains to Hoboken & Meadowlands so they would be near highest demand users for recovery

Case Study 2: Public Sector Resilience

Community Resilience and Critical Infrastructure Resilience are National Strategic Imperatives

“The term resilience refers to the ability to prepare for and adapt to changing conditions and withstand and recover rapidly from disruptions. Resilience includes the ability to withstand and recover from deliberate attacks, accidents, or naturally occurring threats or incidents.* * President Policy Directive 21 - Critical Infrastructure Security and Resilience February 12, 2013

RESILIENCE FEATURES Pre-event: •  Modeling and planning •  Situational Awareness •  Resistance, Cushionability, Robustness, Redundancy

During event: Resourcefulness - response should be done nimbly and competently enough to mitigate consequence and support rapid recovery Post event: •  Restore minimal function •  Restore full function •  Adapt and improve

Performance(Percent)

100

80

60

40

20

0

D R

B

A

BT

C

Time

Resilience ParametersD = Disruption to SystemR = Capability to attenuate or mitigate effect

prior to or at time of event A = Capability to absorb and degradeB = Bottom out; Threshold LevelBT = Length of time at bottomC = Capability to reconstitute back to initial level

T1 T2 T3

Source: J. Kahan, et. Al., Risk and Resilience: Exploring the Relationship, Homeland Security Studies and Analysis Institute, Nov 20, 2010 & Mary Ellen Hynes, “Extreme Loading of Physical Infrastructure” presentation at the 4th DHS University Network Summit, March 11, 2010;

10

CONCLUSIONS

•  Resilience requires greater emphasis on and investment in forecasting, modeling, monitoring, and assessment capabilities that can support mitigation, speed response and recovery, and inform adaptation in the aftermath of disruptive incidents.

•  When disaster’s strike, the first responders are always local and citizens are indispensible strategic assets.

•  Large-scale disasters impact regional systems and therefore require an enhanced capacity for undertaking preparedness, response, and recovery at a regional level.

•  Resilience requires a deeper understanding of interdependencies and the cascading effects that a major disruption can generate.

•  Companies and communities need to “bake-in” resilience into their critical systems and functions.

•  Local, regional, and national competitiveness will increasingly be defined by the level of resilience that communities and countries have to withstand, nimbly respond, and rapidly recover from shocks and disruptive events. People will chose to invest in companies and live in areas that possess resilience and gravitate away from those that do not.