resilient agricultural households through adaptation of climate smart agriculture practices- by dr...
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RESILIENT AGRICULTURAL HOUSEHOLDS THROUGH ADAPTATION OF CLIMATE SMART AGRICULTURE PRACTICES
Dakshina Murthy Kadiyala Innovation Systems for the Drylands
Methodology - Structural Approach
Shahnila et al., 2016
Physiological Agronomic
Crop Simulation models
(process based)
Economic models
(IAT, TOAMD)
Climate Stresses
GCMsTechnology adoption
Yields, farm income, cash
flows
Climate Analysis
Number of Grids : 350Base line period : 1980-2009Mid- century period : 2040-2069RCP : 8.5Number of GCMs : 29
Indicator Weight (%)
Annual Maximum Temperature 2
Annual Minimum Temperature 4
Heat wave occurrences (days) 3
Cold wave occurrences (days) 3
Severe Heat wave occurrences (days) 5
Severe Cold wave occurrences (days) 2
CV in June rainfall(%) 5
CV in July rainfall(%) 12
Annual Precipitation 1
Monsoon rainfall 6
CV Monsoon rainfall(%) 12
Very heavy rainfall (days) 5
Dry days 5
More than 14 days of dry in monsoon 10
Wet days 5
More than 14 days of dry in monsoon 5
Number of annual rainy days 5
95th percentile rainfall 5
Hot day frequency 5
Construction of climate exposure index
Climate Analysis-Climate Exposure Index
Mandal wise climate exposure index for Baseline & Mid-century period (2040-69)under RCP 8.5
Hot -dryBaseline (1980-2009)
Mandal wise climate exposure index for baseline climate along with major crop type mapping and command areas (2015-16)
Climate Analysis-Climate Exposure Index
Farm size category Extreme High Moderate Resilient Grand Total
Labour 1575 295 32 1 1903
Large (> 7.5 ac) 9 39 172 353 573
Medium (2.6 -7.5 ac) 113 620 1580 835 3148
Small (< 2.5 ac) 303 1270 1025 178 2776
Grand Total 2000 2224 2809 1367 8400
Household Vulnerability Analysis
Adaptation Interventions
Agronomic Measures-promotion of pulses & millets, farming
systems approach, energy smart irrigation
practices, nutriment smart practices
Soil and Water Conservation-Farm ponds with micro irrigation, bore well
recharge structures etc.,
Integrated Farming Systems-back yard poultry, small ruminants, fodder
crops/ fodder tress on bunds, vermicomposting
etc.,
1 Value addition- Millet & pulses
processing units (Dall Mills)
Community Interventions-Custom hiring centers, climate information
centers
Capacity Building-household
mentoring, Market linkages , climate
smart practices, Business plan and
sustainability strategy
2
3
4
5
6
Intelligent Agricultural Systems Advisory Tool (ISAT) - Taking small-holder farming to next level
Maharashtra Farmers fear loss of kharif harvest, blame Met Department
(http://www.huffingtonpost.in/village-square/maharashtra-farmers-fear-loss-of-kharif-harvest-blame-met-depar_a_23041487/)
• Rainfall forecast from the met services not specific to their location
• Contingency planning from the Dept. of Agriculture that rarely considers market information
• Crop management recommendations that are mostly generalized for all soils and seasons
Rainfall probability- Anantapur
Dry spells >300 mm years
Dry spells <300 mm years
Decision tree – Rainfed groundnut system, Anantapur
Timeline Conditions Decision
April&MayKharif
Avg Rain=352 mm
SCF/LRF
El Nino
Limited GN with high proportion of drought tolerant
crops
Prepare for planting a mix of crops
Plant GN with PP as intercrop
BN
Message
• Plant early maturing GN at the earliest opportunity
• Consider using a mix of crops
• Plant GN at the earliest opportunity after 2nd week of June
• Plant early maturing GN at the earliest opportunity
• Consider allocating about 25-50% of the land to drought tolerant crops
<35
0 m
m
JuneAvg
Rain=50 mm
P for>20 mm=0.73
Last week Rain
Timeline Conditions Message
Week 1
Week 2
Week 3
Week 4
Next week
forecast
2week outlook
Last week Rain Next
week forecast
Last week Rain
Next week
forecast
Last week Rain
Next week
forecast
Next week
forecast
Next week
forecast
Next week
forecast
Next week
forecast
2week outlook
2week outlook
2week outlook
2week outlook
2week outlook
2week outlook
2week outlook
2week outlook
2week outlook
2week outlook
2week outlook
2week outlook
2week outlook
2week outlook
2week outlook
Wait
Prepare land
Plant GN
Wait
Plant GN
Wait
Plant GN
Wait
Plant GN
Wait
Prepare the land or Plant GN
Prepare land
Get ready for planting
Prepare the land
Wait
Prepare the land
AN
AN
AN
AN
AN
AN
AN
AN
Last week Rain
Next week
forecast
Last week Rain
Last week Rain
Next week
forecast
Next week
forecast
Timeline Conditions Message
Wait
Last week Rain
Week 1
Next week
forecast
2week outlookNext
week forecast
2week outlook
2week outlook
2week outlook
Prepare the land
Wait
Prepare the land
BN
AN
BN
AN
Intelligent Agricultural Systems Advisory Tool (ISAT)
AgMIP Sentinel Sites
Next steps
• Use of big data analytics for identification of key farm decisions and drivers
• Developing decision trees/decision making structures with appropriate triggers/ thresholds for several crops
• Linking the program with an information dissemination system
Thank You