resolve intersolar china 2014
TRANSCRIPT
India Solar The challenging, high potential market
Beijing, China March 25, 2014
ENERGY CONSULTANTS
India’s Grim Energy Future
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Scarce
Insecure
Dirty
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Scarce
4th Largest
Energy consuming country
in the world
Photo by Barefoot Photographers of Tilonia
400 70 83 Million Billion kWh Gigawatt
People do not have Peak power deficit in 2013-14 Required capacity addition access to quality electricity by 2017 @9% GDP growth
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Insecure
2.6M Barrels
India’s net oil import per day
In 2012-13
22.4%
78%
of the total Coal demand of the total Crude Oil to be met by imports 2017 requirements to be met by 2017
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Dirty
Fossil fuels account for
92%
of demand in 2013
2 Billion Metric Tons of Co2 emitted
in2012(6% increase from previous year)
Air pollution and
particulate content
increasing
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Solar - Marginal at present, but ..
43,649, 18% 20,299, 9%
4,780, 2%
3,898, 2%
2,208, 1%
160,484, 68%
Total Installed Capacity
235,318 MW
Thermal
Hydro
Wind
Nuclear
Biomass
Solar
As of 31.01.2014 Source : CEA and MNRE
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.. very high resource availability
Application Segment
Phase I Targets (2010-2013)
Phase II Targets (2013-2017)
Phase III Targets (2017-2022)
Grid-Connected Solar
1,100 MW 4,000 – 10,000 MW
20,000 MW
Off-grid solar applications
200 MW 1,000 MW 2,000 MW
Solar Thermal Collectors
7 Million Square Meters
15 Million Square Meters
20 Million Square Meters
Solar Lighting Systems
5 Million 10 Million 20 Million
Regulatory Framework
Renewable Purchase Obligations (RPO)
Cumula ve Solar Capacity Requirement for RPO Compliance
40,000
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000 0.50%
5,000 0.25% 0.25%
1,433 1,536 3,291 -
2011 -12 2012 -13 2013 -14
0.75%
5,291
2014 -15
1.00%
7,560
2015 -16
2.50%
2.25%
1.75%
1.25%
24,839 20,885
15,176 10,127
2016 -17 2017 -18 2018 -19 2019 -20
MW RPO %
3.00%
2.75%
34,152 29,247
2020 -21 2021 -22
3.50%
3.00%
2.50%
2.00%
1.50%
1.00%
0.50%
0.00%
34 GW potential from RPO
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1,433 1,536 3,291 5,291 7,560
10,127
15,176
20,885 24,839
29,247
34,152
0.25% 0.25%
0.50%
0.75%
1.00%
1.25%
1.75%
2.25%
2.50%
2.75%
3.00%
0.00%
0.50%
1.00%
1.50%
2.00%
2.50%
3.00%
3.50%
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
Cumulative Solar Capacity Requirement for RPO Compliance
MW RPO %
Growth so far ..
(2009-2013)
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Growth Trend - Temporary Slow Down
2500
2208
2000
1686
1500
1000
500
3 8 0 3
994
25 11 36
1030
656 522
31.03.2009 31.03.2010 31.03.2011 31.03.2012 31.03.2013 31.03.2014 Annual Cumula ve
As of 31.01.2014 Source : MNRE
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3 8 25
994
656 522
3 11 36
1,030
1,686
2,208
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Solar Installations(MW)
Annual Cumulative
Way Forward - Central Level Initiatives
- State Level Initiatives
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India Elections 2014
A New Government will take charge…
Decision making might become faster…
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Takeaways
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India Solar • India is facing an energy crisis
• Solar is an ideal solution
• After a good start, growth slowed down
• Challenges are high
• But potential is huge
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Thank you
Madhavan Nampoothiri Founder and Director
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• Boutique Advisory firm with focus on renewable energy(Solar PV and Wind) projects
• Founded by professionals from India and Germany with strong global exposure
• Clients include
– World Bank, Washington DC, USA
– ICTSD, Switzerland
– iPLON, Germany
– Confidential Client, Canada
• Quoted by
– New York Times
– Washington Post
– Bloomberg
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