resource efficiency for green growth: is much of the asia in an advantageous position to low carbon...
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Resource Efficiency for Green Growth: Is much of the Asia in an advantageous position to Low Carbon World?
International Conference on Green Industry in Asia10 September 2009, Manila
Shuzo Nishioka Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES)
National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES) Japan
Demand side
Supply side
20502005
To stabilize climate, demand side energy saving, especially in developing countries, plays a big role globally
% OECD nOECD
Share 35 65Energy saving -47 -59
Japan Low Carbon Society 2050 ScenarioA research result to endorse Japanese policy of 60-80% reduction in 2050 by NIES, Kyoto Univ., TIT, Tokyo Univ. + α (2004-2009)
Key conclusion:1.Japan has the technological potential to reduce its CO2 emission by 70% compared to the 1990 level, while satisfying the expected demand for energy services in 2050.2. Energy saving and LC primary energy contribute almost equally.3. Innovation necessary not only in technology but in social infrastructure and institutions as well
Prime Minister Fukuda in Congress (Jan. 2008)“..maximize Japanese environmental power, lead world transition towards Low Carbon Society…”(May 18) Japanese long-term target 60-80% reduction until 2050,
Industry Household
Business
Passenger transport
Freight transport
0 100 200 300 400
2000
Scenario A
Scenario B
Industry Household BusinessPassenger transport
Freight transport
2050
2050
Eco-efficient product and
consumers’ smart choices can
reduce energy consumption by as
much as 40-45%
一次エネルギー供給
Coal Oil Gas
Biomass
Nuclear
Hydro
Solar/Wind
- 100 200 300 400 500 600
2000
Scenario A
Scenario B
Coal Oil Gas Biomass Nuclear
Hydro Solar/Wind
(Mtoe)
Low carbon shift in primary energy
sources via introduction of renewable energies
Use of centralized energy
Use of distributed energy
2050
2050
(Mtoe)
Reduced energy demand
40-45 % reduction
Equal effort by demand & supply side
70 % CO2
reductioncan be attained by
Energy×
CO2
Emission =PopGDP Service
DemandCO2
×Pop GDP
×Energy
×Energy
GDP/Cap2.7
Service IndustryShift 0.45
Energy efficiency
0.6
Service DemandSame as 2000
【 Demand side 】Saving energy devices,
hi-insulated housing, renewable energy,Compact city 70%40 % reduction
【 Supply side 】Nuclear,
Renewables,CCS with Coal
30 % reduction
Low Carbonize
0.5
CO20.3
Pop は0.8
Step 1Social change
Step 2Service demand
Step 3 :Energy demand
Step 4 :CO2
emission
Service Demand
Energy Efficiency is the key, but not enough
2050 Japan LCS Scenario
Significant CO2reduction Potential in demand side
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
Secondary energy demand (million tonC) )
Industry Res. OfficePassenger Cargo
others2000
2050A2%/yGrowth
2050B1%/yGrowth
Toshiba aims Factor 10 Toshiba aims Factor 10
The ideal situation in 2050People lead rich lifestyles in harmony with the EarthCommon goal to reduce CO2 emissions by half to prevent global
warmingReducing the environmental impact generated by human beings by half
An increasingly growing populationReducing the environmental impact generated by each person by 1.5 times
Economic development accelerated, especially in developing countries
Creating 3.4 times more value
Factor 10 by 2050Factor 10 by 2050EnvironmentalVision
2050 Simplifiedeco-
efficiencyGDP/CO2
CO2 : 1/2CO2 : 1/2
Population : X 1.5Population : X 1.5
GDP/Population : X 3.4GDP/Population : X 3.4
GDP/PopulationX Population X 1/CO2
= 3.4 X 1.5 X 2
GDP/PopulationX Population X 1/CO2
= 3.4 X 1.5 X 2
Takeda (Toshiba): 2009
Factor = Degree of Improvement of Eco-efficiency
Eco-efficiency and Factor
Eco-efficiency =Environmental
Impactof a product
Value of a product
*The value of the factor indicates to what extent the eco-efficiency of the product has increased.
*The higher the value, the greater the eco-efficiency is.
Toshiba’s Approach: “Factor T” integrating three environmental perspectives - To optimize the trade-off between Environment and Lifestyle - 1. Integration of environmental
impact by the LIME Method2. Integration of value of a product
with multiple functions by the QFD method
3. Integration of product and business process eco-efficiency
What is Product Value?
•Voice of customer is translated into engineering metrics.
•Customers’ evaluation of a product is reflected in an indicator to enhance customer satisfaction.
•We adopted QFD* method to reflect customers’ evaluation in determination of product value.
*QFD (Quality Function Deployment):A systematic process for integrating product functions based on the degree of importance customers attach to them when selecting a product.
We
igh
t o
f C
un
tom
er
Re
qu
irem
en
t
Va
cuu
m W
ork
Ra
tio [
W]
Bo
dy
We
igh
t [g
]
To
tal W
eig
ht
[kg
]
Bo
dy
Vo
lum
e [
m3
]
Bru
sh W
eig
ht
[kg
]
Bru
sh V
olu
me
[m
3]
Ca
sse
t T
rash
[ -
]
Wh
ee
l Siz
e [
mm
]
Tra
p E
ffic
ien
cy [
%]
No
ise
[d
B]
Ru
nn
ing
We
igh
t [N
]
Nu
mb
er
of
Filt
er
[pcs
]
Co
mp
ress
Ra
tio o
f T
rash
[g
/L]
Ro
tary
Bru
sh [
rpm
]
Du
st P
ick-
up
Ra
tio [
%]
Tra
sh L
eft
be
sid
e W
all
[mm
]
Nu
mb
er
of
Ata
chm
en
ts [
pcs
]
Le
ng
h o
f N
ozz
le [
mm
]
Careless exhaust 5.3 1 9 3 9 1Vacuum everything 8.7 9 1 1 3 1 3 9 1Silent 5.7 3 3 9 1Easy to dispose trash 2.3 1 1 9 3Clean up narrow area 3.4 1 3 9Clean up flooring 7.0 9 9 3Subordinate body 2.7 3 9 3Clean up corners 7.8 3 3 9 3Easy to clean 4.0 1 9 9 3 9 1 3 3 1 1Easy to move brush 3.1 9 9 1 3Many attachments 1.5 1 3Compact storage 2.1 1 1 9 3 9 1
Weight of Engineering Metrics
16
.8
3.2
2.4
0.3
4.8
4.5
2.4
0.8
2.4
9.6
1.6
2.4
1.9
9.8
13
.0
8.0
1.6
2.7
Weights
Engineering Metrics
Customer Require-
ments
Voice of Customer
ex. Vacuum Cleaner
Correlation;9: large 3: middle1: small
QFD matrix
Process of Integrating Environmental Impact
Environmental Load
HFC, SOX, T-N, T-P, CO2, NOX, etc
Easy-LCA *
・・・
Integration
Social Property Primary Production Biodiversity Human Health
・・・
LIME**
Procure-ment
Procure-ment Manufa-
cturingManufa-cturing
Distribu-tion
Distribu-tion Consum-
ptionConsum-
ptionWaste
treatmentWaste
treatment
RecyclingRecycling
Ozone Depletion
Acidifi-cation
Eutro-phication
Global Warming
Air Polution
CancerPlant Production
Aquatic Plant Decrease Malaria Dengue Fever Respiratory
Diseases
* A simplified LCA tool developed by Toshiba, incorporating a database of 30 inventory items based on the input/output table of Japan
**Life-cycle Impact assessment Method based on Endpoint modeling : developed by AIST as part of a NEDO project.
Factor Description and Applications
Factor Value Factor
Environmental Impact Reduction Factor= ×
•“Factor T” is already applied to 80% of all Toshiba products.
•Factors are calculated on the basis of FY2000 models.
•Graph shows factors of products using two axes:
“Value Factor” “Environmental Impact Reduction Factor”
•Lines indicate enhancement of the value or reduction of the environmental impact.
Asian Opportunity 1: Low carbon technologies already availablei f technologies commonly shared (2020)
China, US, India, Western Europe and Russia are major 5 regions where there are large reduction potentials, and it accounts for 63 % of total reduction potentials in the world. Top 10 regions account for about 80 % of total reduction potentials.
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500JP
N
CH
N
IND
IDN
KO
R
TH
A
XS
E
XS
A
XM
E
AU
S
NZ
L
CA
N
US
A
XE
15
XE
10
RU
S
AR
G
BR
A
XL
M
XA
F
XR
W
GH
G R
ed
uct
ion
po
ten
tial (
Mt-
CO 2
eq
)
un
de
r 1
00
US
$/t-
CO
2
50 < X <= 100 US$/t-CO2
20 < X <= 50 US$/t-CO2
0 < X <= 20 US$/t-CO2
X <= 0 US$/t-CO2
Huge reduction potential whenBest Available Technology applied
GHG Reduction Potential
Negative cost !
Infrastructure is importantExample: Passenger transport sector can
achieve 80% reduction in energy demand via suitable
land use & improved energy efficiency
Change in passenger transport volume: reduction in total movements due to population decline Change in passenger transport methods: modal shift using public transport system (LRT etc.) Change in passenger transport due to increased urban density ('compact cities'): reduced travel distance
due to proximity of destination Improved energy efficiency: improvements in automobiles & other passenger transport devices (hybrids,
lightweight designs etc.)
Energy efficiency improvement
Land use ・ Reduction in transport volume
Decline in transport volume
Grid electricity
Energ
y D
em
an
d (
Mto
e)
2000(Actual figure) 2050(scenario A) 2050(scenario B)
Change in passenger transport volume
Change in passenger transport methodsChange in passenger transport due to increased urban density ('compact cities')Improved energy efficiency
Hydrogen
Solar energy generation
Biomass
Natural gas
Petroleum oil
Energy demand in 2000
北京 1975 北京 1984 北京 1991 北京 1997
東京 1927 東京 1967 東京 2001
ソウル 1920 ソウル 1960 ソウル 2006
台北 1920 台北 2003
Rapidly Expanding Asian Cities
Tokyo & Osaka
Manila
Bangkok
Beijing
Seoul
From Kaneko: 2009
North American Pattern
Most efficient patterndaa
* Tokyo
* Hong Kong
European Pattern
* San Francisco
* Munich
50,000GDP/Capita (USD)
100%
Modal share of motorized private mode
0%
* Rome
* Beijing * Manila
Asian Opportunity 2: Designing efficient Infrastructure
From IEA: 2008
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
->Di
esel
ICE
V軽
油 ->Di
esel
ICE
HEV
軽油
->Ga
soli
ne I
CEV
ガソ
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Gaso
line
ICE
HEV
ガソ
リン
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. Ga
s. F
CHEV
ガソ
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->FP
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CEV
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HEV
圧縮
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液体
水素
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EV液
体水
素
->Di
esel
ICE
V合
成デ
ィー
ゼル ->
Dies
el I
CEHE
V合
成デ
ィー
ゼル ->
FP.
MeOH
FCH
EVメ
タノ
ール
->FP
. Me
OH F
CEV
メタ
ノー
ル->
FCHE
V圧
縮水
素->
FCEV
圧縮
水素 ->
FCHE
V液
体水
素->
FCEV
液体
水素
->Di
esel
ICE
V合
成デ
ィー
ゼル ->
Dies
el I
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V合
成デ
ィー
ゼル ->
FP.
MeOH
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EVメ
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->FP
. Me
OH F
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成デ
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素->
FCEV
液体
水素
->BE
V石
油火
力LN
G->
BEV
火力
->BE
V石
炭火
力->
BEV
平均
電源
構成
->BE
Vバ
イオ
マス
発電
->->
FCHE
V石
油火
力圧
縮水
素->
->FC
EV石
油火
力圧
縮水
素LN
G->
->FC
HEV
火力
圧縮
水素
LNG
->->
FCEV
火力
圧縮
水素
->->
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V石
炭火
力圧
縮水
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->FC
EV石
炭火
力圧
縮水
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->FC
HEV
平均
電源
構成
圧縮
水素
->->
FCEV
平均
電源
構成
圧縮
水素
->->
FCHE
Vバ
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マス
発電
圧縮
水素
->->
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バイ
オマ
ス発
電圧
縮水
素 ->FC
HEV
圧縮
水素
->FC
EV圧
縮水
素 ->FC
HEV
液体
水素
->FC
EV液
体水
素
max mi n
副生水素電力バイオマス石炭天然ガス原油
Well
to
Whee
l CO
2[g
-CO2
/km]
排出
原単
位Technology: Projected Car CO2
Emission/km
0
50
100
150
200
250デ
ィー
ゼル
車
ディ
ーゼ
ルH
V
ガソ
リン
車
ガソ
リン
HV
燃料
電池
車(水
素)
()
燃料電池車メタノール
燃料
電池
車(水
素)
燃料
電池
車(水
素)
燃料
電池
車(水
素)
電気自動車
最小 最大
副生水素 電力ハ イ゙オマス 天然ガス原油
Wel
l to
Whe
el C
O2
[g-C
O2/
km]
排出
原単
位
※ ※HV:ハイブリッド車の省略形 電力:日本の平均電源構成※ ※燃料電池車:回生エネルギーを二次電池で回収 水素:圧縮水素を仮定
EVEV
GasolineGasoline
Hy. AugHy. Aug
FCFC
DieselDiesel
(ELIICA) 4 PASSENGER SEDAN 370km/h MAX.SPEED
Asian Opportunity 3:Technological
leap-fogging starts now
Electric Car:
Prof. Hiroshi SHIMIZU, Keio Univ.
Experiences in Mobile Phone
Body Panels
Body Frame
Chassis
Lighter,wider, and
flexible design,
when move engine away
Let’s design customized
Asian Eco-car
NEW SYSTEM TECHNOLOGY “PLATFORM by SIM-Drive”
TANDEM WHEELSUSPENSION
↑
↑
IN WHEEL MOTOR MOTOR DRIVE SYSTEMS ARE INSERTED IN EACH 8 WHEELS
・ HIGHER EFFICIENCY・ LIGHTER WEIGHT・ WIDER USEFUL SPACE IN CABIN
COMPONENT BUILT IN FRAME MAJOR COMPONENTS ARE IN 16cm HEIGHT FRAME UNDER THE FLOOR ・ LIGHTER WEIGHT ・ LOWER CENTER OF GRAVITY ・ WIDER USEFUL SPACE IN A CABIN
TWO WHEELS ARE CONNECTED BY AN OIL PIPE
・ COMFORT・ FASTER CORNERING SPEED・ WIDER USEFUL SPACE IN A CABIN
22
China ? India ?
*
Long-term Trends in Energy Intensity (energy/GDP)
Japan’s leap-frog
Possibility of Asian countries’ catch-up
– How can we facilitate technology leap flogging to promote low carbon development?
– What would be mechanisms (international and national, market and non market) that could facilitate those leap-floggings to low carbon technologies?
Asian Opportunity 4: Free from past high-energy-depending technology track
Acceleration of Technology Essential to Realize a Low Carbon
Society
2.38
1.72
2.79
1.70
2.36
1.25
1.26
1.62
0.85
1.41
0.78
0.65
0.45
0.68
0.61
0.53
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0
Germany
France
UK
Scenario B
Scenario A
Past
Rate of improvement in carbon & energy intensity (%/year)
Energy intensity Carbon intensity ( excluding CCS )Carbon intensity ( CCS equivalent )
Considerations (1)
International decoupling competition started
IEA Energy statistics
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030Year
Ene
rgy/
GD
P [to
e/thou
sand$
]
U.S. EU-15U.K. GermanyFrance JapanKorea
KoreaU.S.
U.K.
Japan? Japan almost
caught up by European countries
Energy Intensity
Oceania
Other Asian Countries
EuropeChina
Hong Kong
NorthAmerica
South America
J apan
500 100
PE waste (391510)PS waste (391520)PVC waste (391530)Other plastic waste (391590)
10 (in thousand t)
Material flows of plastic waste among J apan, China and Hong Kong in 2002
Asia: Tightening material linkage: cooperation
From NIES
27Embedded Water to Japan (Virtual water)accompanied with food, meat, industrial product,,
tightening of mutual dependency in natural resource usage
2002 年に穀物、肉、工業製品として日本に輸入されたバーチャルウォーター
出典: T. Oki, M. Sato, A. Kawamura, M. Miyake, S. Kanae, and K. Musiake, Virtual water trade to Japan and in the world, Virtual Water Trade, Edited by A.Y. Hoekstra, Proceedings of the International Expert Meeting on Virtual Water Trade, Delft, The Netherlands, 12-13 December 2002, Value of Water Research Report Series No.12, 221-235, February 2003.
出典: T. Oki, M. Sato, A. Kawamura, M. Miyake, S. Kanae, and K. Musiake, Virtual water trade to Japan and in the world, Virtual Water Trade, Edited by A.Y. Hoekstra, Proceedings of the International Expert Meeting on Virtual Water Trade, Delft, The Netherlands, 12-13 December 2002, Value of Water Research Report Series No.12, 221-235, February 2003.
世界の水資源への影響が、日本にも及ぶかもしれない。
Toward Resource Efficient-Economies in Asia and the Pacific
March 2009
Taku OHMURA3R Project Team LeaderAsian Development Bank
ADB-IGES Joint Publicationin 2008
The Report:
• Propositions:1. Current inefficient development patterns do not allow the
region to continue support high demand resource without negative impacts:
– higher price, severe degradation, growing internal competition
2. Government around the region have the ability to follow an alternative path not only to avoid such impacts but also to take advantage of opportunities to invest in infrastructure and institutes wisely:
– Strengthen competitiveness, generate jobs, provide clean and productive environment
Resource Inefficiency in Asia
• Resource efficiency has huge room to improve in developing countries – Energy consumption per GDP of PRC is 3 times higher
than US, 10 times than Japan)– In many mega-cities, non-revenue water of water supply
is around 40%– In developing countries, 75% of water intended to for
irrigation is lost to evaporation, leakage, seepage of bad management
• Fresh water is a renewable resources, but world demand for water has tripled over last half century, it increasingly emerging scares commodity due to population pressure, intensive irrigation, erratic weather pattern, and pollution caused by human activities.
Needs for Resource Efficiency Improvement in Asia (1)
• Asian economies is continuing its growth, even its growth rate is slowing down. Economic expansion is associated with rapid urbanization (2.21 Billon in 2040 1.56 Billion current)
• Necessary to improve services to the people, to reduce poverty (54% of population living less than $2/day poverty line or 27% for <$1.25/day)– more than 600 million people lack access to safe drinking water
and nearly 2 billion people have inadequate, or no, sanitation facilities.
• Resulting in rapidly increasing demand of resources (material, energy and water), and waste generation (solid waste, pollutants, GHG)– Asian energy consumption will grow by 112% from 2005 to 2030– GO2 emission from Asia will be doubled and
represent 36% of world emission in 42% in 2030 in comparison to 29% in 2005
– Solid waste generation will be doubled in 2050
Needs for Resource Efficiency Improvement in Asia (2)
-- Not only for environmental objectives, but also economic competitiveness and sustainable economic growth --
• Tackling Local Environmental Problems• Mitigating Climate Change• Ensuring Energy Security (+water/food security)• Preserving Natural Capital• Improving Economic Competitiveness• Minimizing Disposal Costs• Developing New Business Opportunities• Pursuing Social Benefits• Avoiding Resource Conflicts
Government role: Develop National Policy Framework
• Overarching Policies, such as “Circular Economy”
• National Policies to Support Material, Energy and Water Efficiency
• Targets, Monitoring, and Benchmarking
Regulatory, Economic and Financial, Information-based, Voluntary Initiatives, Substance, product or technology bans, Extended producer Responsibility and take-back, Green purchasing, Biomass policies and programs, Construction and demolition debris, Energy Audit, Energy Efficiency and Emission Standards, Energy pricing and taxation, Favorable subsidies (tax credit & favorable loan), Energy service company, Demand side management, GHG reduction project, Improving allocative efficiency, River basin planning, Water Pricing, Water market
Report examines wide range of policy instruments:
Government Role : Investing in Resource-Efficient Infrastructure
• Infrastructure investments often establish a country’s pattern of resource use for subsequent decades. If traditional low efficiency infrastructure is introduced, the economies and the sustainability of resource use will suffer in the long term. – ADB estimates: US$60 Billion/yr is needed to expand urban
services – water, sanitation, SWM, road, and mass transit.– US$8 Billion/yr over the next decade to meet MDG targets for
sanitation and safe drinking water– Investment in industry and energy sectors is continuing to
meet the increasing demands • US$6 trillion needed for energy investments by 2030
Conclusion
1. Resource efficiency for reducing energy demand is the key to shift to Low Carbon Society, front- runner to the stationary world
2. Embedding resource efficiency concept into management is indispensable to win international competition among countries and business as well
3. Fully integrated application of resource efficiency concept required: innovations in products as well as in infrastructure and institutions to activate them. Immediate action of Governments based on firm future oriented plan is indispensable
4. Much of the Asia now situates in an advantageous position to leapfrog to resource efficient society, avoiding locked–in with past inefficient developing pattern, if their current rapid and massive investment aims properly to our common future
5. Collaboration first, competition second: collaborative improvement of resource efficiency benefits widely over the countries in Asia, under tightening regional flow of materials and energy, within stationary world
Can we live with such a catastrophe?Projection of surface temperature from 1900
東大気候システム研究センター・国立環境研究所・地球環境フロンティア研究センター
地球シミュレータによる2100年までの気候変化予測ー地上温度
CCSR/NIES/FRSGC + Earth Simulator
Earth System Integrated Mod Kakushin = Innovation Program (2007-12)
気候が変化すれば生態系も変化し、炭素循環が変化する。気候と生態系の相互作用も考慮して将来の地球環境変化を予測できるのが地球システム統合モデル( ESM) であり、これの高度化
をはかる。
力学的植生モデル
Chemical process Aerozol
Land area C cycle
Land energy water cycle
Ocean circulation Marine bio-chemical process
Ice sheet
Stratosphere process
1850 22502000
0
4[PgC/yr]
2100
No FB
With Feed Back
No FB
With FB
Estimate
*present
550ppm stabilize3.2-4 degrees
Estimate
Interim research findings of "Innovative" Earth System Model JAMSTEC(2007)
1000ppm stabilizeMore than 6 degrees
To stabilize climate, emission = absorption, but absorption capacity decreases while temperature rises.AlmostZero emission ultimately needed
Slow absorptionto deep see
PgC/y
Now we are stepping into stationary society
Resources: Fossil F
Wastes: CO2
Products: Energy
Infrastructure
as source of resources
as sink of residuals
The earth is finite
Solar E
nergy
Moriguchi +SN