respective roles of nuclear and non- nuclear forces as instruments of policy december 14, 2005 keith...
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![Page 1: Respective Roles of Nuclear and Non- Nuclear Forces as Instruments of Policy December 14, 2005 Keith B. Payne President, National Institute for Public](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022082711/56649ebd5503460f94bc6b92/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Respective Roles of Nuclear and Non-Nuclear Forces as Instruments of Policy
December 14, 2005
Keith B. Payne
President, National Institute for Public Policy
Chair, Department of Defense and Strategic Studies, Missouri State University
![Page 2: Respective Roles of Nuclear and Non- Nuclear Forces as Instruments of Policy December 14, 2005 Keith B. Payne President, National Institute for Public](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022082711/56649ebd5503460f94bc6b92/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
2National Institute for Public Policy
Diverse Audiences and U.S. Policy Goals
Immediate and potential provocationsDeter whom
from what?
Violent Extremists (VE)Rogue StatesPeer /
Emerging Peer
WMD escalation, second WMD use
–Sponsorship of terror (esp. WMD)–Suicide operations
Small Group ofSenior Leaders
Audiences
StateSponsors
Org Ldrs
Allies & Friends
Leadership andgeneral population
N/A
Military competition
Dissuade
Acquisition of WMD, challenging U.S./allies
Religious, familial support/network for VEN/A
Immediate and potential attacks
Defend, Denyand Defeat
Regional military attacks, WMD use
Terrorist attacks
suicide operationsN/A
AssureConfidence in U.S:–For coalitions–For alliance–For non-proliferation
N/A N/A N/A
Small group orsingle leader
Cells
![Page 3: Respective Roles of Nuclear and Non- Nuclear Forces as Instruments of Policy December 14, 2005 Keith B. Payne President, National Institute for Public](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022082711/56649ebd5503460f94bc6b92/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
3National Institute for Public Policy
Diverse Audiences and U.S. Policy Goals
Immediate and potential provocationsDeter whom
from what?
Violent Extremists (VE)Rogue StatesPeer /
Emerging Peer
WMD escalation, second WMD use
–Sponsorship of terror (esp. WMD)–Suicide operations
Small Group ofSenior Leaders
Audiences
StateSponsors
Org Ldrs
Allies & Friends
Leadership andgeneral population
N/A
Military competition
Dissuade
Acquisition of WMD, challenging U.S./allies
Religious, familial support/network for VEN/A
Immediate and potential attacks
Defend, Denyand Defeat
Regional military attacks, WMD use
Terrorist attacks
suicide operationsN/A
AssureConfidence in U.S:–For coalitions–For alliance–For non-proliferation
N/A N/A N/A
Small group orsingle leader
Cells
![Page 4: Respective Roles of Nuclear and Non- Nuclear Forces as Instruments of Policy December 14, 2005 Keith B. Payne President, National Institute for Public](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022082711/56649ebd5503460f94bc6b92/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
4National Institute for Public Policy
Diverse Audiences and U.S. Policy Goals
Immediate and potential provocationsDeter whom
from what?
Violent Extremists (VE)Rogue StatesPeer /
Emerging Peer
WMD escalation, second WMD use
–Sponsorship of terror (esp. WMD)–Suicide operations
Small Group ofSenior Leaders
Audiences
StateSponsors
Org Ldrs
Allies & Friends
Leadership andgeneral population
N/A
Military competition
Dissuade
Acquisition of WMD, challenging U.S./allies
Religious, familial support/network for VEN/A
Immediate and potential attacks
Defend, Denyand Defeat
Regional military attacks, WMD use
Terrorist attacks
suicide operationsN/A
AssureConfidence in U.S:–For coalitions–For alliance–For non-proliferation
N/A N/A N/A
Small group orsingle leader
Cells
![Page 5: Respective Roles of Nuclear and Non- Nuclear Forces as Instruments of Policy December 14, 2005 Keith B. Payne President, National Institute for Public](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022082711/56649ebd5503460f94bc6b92/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
5National Institute for Public Policy
Diverse Audiences and U.S. Policy Goals
Immediate and potential provocationsDeter whom
from what?
Violent Extremists (VE)Rogue StatesPeer /
Emerging Peer
WMD escalation, second WMD use
–Sponsorship of terror (esp. WMD)–Suicide operations
Small Group ofSenior Leaders
Audiences
StateSponsors
Org Ldrs
Allies & Friends
Leadership andgeneral population
N/A
Military competition
Dissuade
Acquisition of WMD, challenging U.S./allies
Religious, familial support/network for VEN/A
Immediate and potential attacks
Defend, Denyand Defeat
Regional military attacks, WMD use
Terrorist attacks
suicide operationsN/A
AssureConfidence in U.S:–For coalitions–For alliance–For non-proliferation
N/A N/A N/A
Small group orsingle leader
Cells
![Page 6: Respective Roles of Nuclear and Non- Nuclear Forces as Instruments of Policy December 14, 2005 Keith B. Payne President, National Institute for Public](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022082711/56649ebd5503460f94bc6b92/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
6National Institute for Public Policy
Policy Priorities and Effects ShapeAppropriate Weapon Choice
• Audiences?
• Prioritization of Policy Goals?
• Trade-offs?
Policy Objectives, Trade-offs and Effects May be Decisive, Not Targeting Efficiency