response of circulation indexes in the lower...
TRANSCRIPT
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RESPONSE OF CIRCULATION INDEXES IN THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE OF NORTHERN HEMISPHERE
TO SOLAR CYCLE
Anna Kukoleva1, Nina Kononova2, Alexei Krivolutsky1
1Central Aerological Observatory, Dolgoprudny, Moscow Region, Russia
2Institute of Geography, Russian Academy of Sciences,Moscow, Russia
[email protected], [email protected]
Variability of the Sun and Its Terrestrial Impact (VarSITI) Closing Symposium.
Sofia, 10-14 June 2019, Bulgaria
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ABSTRACT
• The results of the statistical analysis of the relationship of
circulation characteristics in the lower atmosphere of the
Northern hemisphere with the cycle of Solar activity are
presented.
• Data (1899-2016): 1) the duration of different types of
elementary circulation mechanism, ECM – Dzerdzeevskii
classification;
2) time series of Wolf numbers.
• Applied statistical analysis the method of "superimposed
epochs", the elements of correlation and spectral analysis.
• Results:
– the increase of solar activity leads to the increase in the
duration of meridional circulation forms;
– Seasonal differences in the effect of the Sun on the lower
atmosphere were also found.
2
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1898 - 1971
Boris Dzerdzeevsky
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• 1 group – zonal type (Z anticyclone
at the North pole blocking processes
are absent), near-polar ring of
cyclones (ECM 1 и 2);
• 2 group – Disturbance of Zonal flow
(DZ), anticyclone at the pole and one
blocking process in any sector (ECM
3-7 types);
Classification of circulation mechanisms of the
Northern hemisphere by B. L. Dzerdzeevsky*)
*)classification is developed on the basis of maps of
sea level pressure and temperature, maps of baric
topography AT-500
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3 group – Meridional Northern type
(MN): anticyclone in the polar region
and 2-4 blocking processes and
outputs of southern cyclones. Inter-
latitudinal exchange of air masses
(ECM of 8-12 types prevails);
4 group – Meridional Southern type
(MS): above the pole – cyclone, the
output of southern cyclones in 3-4
sectors of the hemisphere (ECM 13
type).
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I. The effect of Solar Activity Cycle (W) on the duration of
ECM obtained by the Method of Superimposed Epochs (MSE)
Zonal DZ MN МS
The average duration of
ECM, days in year 25,4 88,2 197,4 48,6
Standard deviation of the
mean(σ), days 1,5 3,4 3,2 4,6
The correlation coefficient
obtained by MSE with
key-days near Solar max
-0,53
-0,62
0,15
-0,3
Direct correlation between
W and ECM, 1899-2016 0,13 -0,06 -0,13 0,1
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MSE: Z and DZ groups (total by types within the group)
7
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
-4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4
"0" - мах of Solar Activity Cycle
Years in SAC
+-σ
Zonal
Dist. Zonal Z
DZ
1.1. Deviation from the average long-term value of the duration at
the year ECM groups in Solar Activity Cycle,
Method of Superimposed Epochs
days
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8
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
-4 -2 0 2 4
Meridional Northern, "0"- max
Years in SAC
+σ
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
-4 -2 0 2 4
Meridional Southern , "0" - мах
+σ
positive correlation
with Solar Activity
Negative correlation
with Solar Activity
5-8%
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Correlation by MSE: R = -0,90 (MN and MS);
direct correlation
(1800-2008 years): R* = -0,35. 9
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
-6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6
"0" – max SAC
Years in SAC
Meridional Northern
Meridional Southern
Deviation from the average long-term value of the duration of
ECM groups in SAC, Method of Superimposed Epochs
for MN and MS groups
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1.2. Seasonal effects
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According to [1] certain types of circulation occur only in certain seasons.
Seasonal circulation groups:
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11
Winter Circulation types (duration in year, days)
0
5
10
15
20
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4
7аз
"0"-- MAX of SAC years in SAC
+ 2σ
Disturbance Zonal flow group - Negative relation with solar activity.
5б – 23%
5г – 15%
7бз – 39%
7фз – 28%
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positive correlation for 11а and 11б with SAС
WINTER,
Meridional Northern groupe -
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3
11а
11б
11в
"0"- MAX of SAC
years in SAC
+2σ
+2σ
11а – 12%, 11б – 47%, 11в - 6%
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The result is insignificant
13
0
5
10
15
20
25
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4
13з
13з
"0"- MAX of SCA
years in SAC
+-σ
WINTER, Meridional Southern type
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SUMMER
14
The result is insignificant
Disturbance of zonal flow type,
Meridional Southern type,
Zonal type,
+σ
+σ
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4б - positive relationship with SAC
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SUMMER
Disturbance of Zonal
flow group
«0» - MAX
+2σ
23% from average value
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SUMMER 4б - positive relationship with SAC
Meridional Northern group
9-10% from average value
days
Years in SAC
“0” – MIN
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SPRING-AUTUMN Meridional Northern group
Sum of MN
group
+2σ
1-4%
8%
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EARLY SPRING - EARLY WINTER
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Zonal group
1а, 1б - + 32%
Disturbance of zonal flow (DZ) group 0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
4,0
4,5
5,0
-4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4
4а
5в
"0" - MIN
+2σ
DZ group
Zonal group
+2σ
4а – (-58)%,
5в – (+38)%
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Meridional Northern group:
Significant negative relationship with Solar Activity
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EARLY SPRING - EARLY WINTER
Summury of MN
group:
+2σ
(16-40)% 20%
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• Time series of deviations from the average long-term
value of the duration of the total circulation groups (Z,
DZ, MN and MS) and also some separate types of
circulation were assumed.
• The ratio (%) of the intensity of individual harmonics of
decomposition to the dispersion value in was calculated.
Thus, these values indicate the contribution of individual
harmonics to the overall variability of the series.
20
II. Circulation group duration Fourier analysis
(1899-2016)
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21
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
59,0
23,0
14,8
10,7
8,4
6,9
5,9
5,1
4,5
4,1
3,7
3,4
3,1
2,9
2,7
2,5
2,4
2,2
2,1
2,0
Zonal group %
years
0
2
4
6
8
59,0
23,0
14,0
10,0
8,4
7,0
6,0
5,1
4,5
4,0
3,7
3,4
3,1
2,9
2,7
2,5
2,4
2,2
2,1
2,0
Disturbance of zonal flow group
%
Fourier analysis results for common circulation group duration
(Time series 1899-2016)
years
Contribution of harmonics with a period of 10-11 years does not exceed 3%
The maximum intensity of a harmonic with a period of about 60 years (7-22%)
MS group
years
years
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22
0
2
4
6
8
10
39,0
23,0
16,0
13,0
10,0
9,0
7,9
7,0
6,2
5,6
5,1
4,7
4,4
4,0
3,8
3,6
3,4
3,2
3,0
2,9
2,7
2,6
2,5
2,4
2,3
2,2
2,2
2,1
2,0
11б , МN (winter)
39
29
23
19
16
14
13
11
0
5
10
15
20
25
58,5
23,4
14,6
10,6
8,4
6,9
5,9
5,1
4,5
4,0
3,7
3,3
3,1
2,9
2,7
2,5
2,3
2,2
2,1
2,0
11в, МN (winter) 58,50
39,00
29,25
23,40
19,50
16,71
14,63
0
5
10
15
20
25
29,0
19,0
14,0
11,0
9,8
8,4
7,4
6,6
6,0
5,4
5,0
4,5
4,2
3,9
3,7
3,5
3,3
3,1
2,9
2,8
2,7
2,6
2,5
2,4
2,3
2,2
2,1
2,0
1,9
10б, МN (summer) 29
23 19 16 14 13 11 10 9,8 9 8,4 7,9 7,4 7
For some types of
MN group in
winter, the intensity
of harmonics with
T=11 and T=22
years increases to
10-20%
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CONCLUSIONS
1. Seasonal differences in the relationship between Solar Activity and circulation types were found: solar activity increases the duration of meridional forms of circulation (MN) at winter and summer, and reduce one at the early-winter. 2. A negative relationship for Disturbance of zonal flow (DZ) group in winter was found also. During the transitional synoptic seasons (spring-autumn, early-winter) the dependence becomes more complicated.
3. The correlation coefficient between the superimposed
MS and MN series is R = -0.90 in Solar Cycle . 4. 60-year cycle of the duration of the elementary circulation period was found.
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REFERENCES
• Kononova N.K. CLASSIFICATION OF CIRCULATION MECHANISMS OF
NORTHERN HEMISPHERE BY B.L. DZERDZEEVSKII.The Russian
academy of sciences. Institute of geography., 2009. 372 P.
http://www.wdcb.ru/stp/data/SPE/
• IZMIRAN, http://www.izmiran.ru/services/saf/archive/
• S. V. Veretenenko, M. G. Ogurtsov. 60-Year Cycle in the Earth’s Climate and
Dynamics of Correlation Links between Solar Activity and Circulation of the
Lower Atmosphere Geomagnetism and Aeronomy, 2018, Vol. 58, No. 7, pp.
973–981. © Pleiades Publishing, Ltd., 2018/
• Kukoleva A.A., N.K. Kononova, A.A. Krivolutskii, Manifestation of the Solar
Cycle in the Circulation Characteristics of the Lower Atmosphere in the
Northern Hemisphere / Geomagnetism and Aeronomy, 2018, Vol. 58, No. 6,
pp. 775–783. 2018.
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THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION!
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