restricted preparing for the future jonathan capstick
TRANSCRIPT
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Preparing for the Future
Jonathan Capstick
www.defra.gov.uk/adaptation
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Adaptation
• Crystal Balls
• Evidence - Projections & CCRA
• Action Now
• Action in the Future
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Looking to the Future: misconceptions
3
Predictions Come True
Technology Solves
One Future
First World Comes First
Space 1999: living on the Moon
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But we know about some key risks
4
Unavoidable climate change
Risks of not cutting emissions
Population Increases
Peak Oil
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Protect & Survive
5
“The danger posed by climate change cannot be denied
Future generations will look back and wonder why we refused to act
Why we failed to pass on an environment that was worthy of our inheritance.”
President Obama
Global warning: Sydney dust storm just the beginning
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Adaptation vs mitigation – the balance
Adaptation and Mitigation.
We cannot have one without the other.
We filled the cup – we need to deal with the consequences
This is a key principle of Stern
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What is adaptation?
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Understanding Assessing Action
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Adaptation
• Crystal Balls
• Evidence - Projections & CCRA
• Action Now
• Action in the Future
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Evidence: Projections
Copenhagen
UK’s 80% goal
Prepare for the impacts
Protect
Seize opportunities
Common Goals
9
www.defra.gov.uk/adaptation
Ancient glaciers are disappearing faster than ever
(24th Sept)
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Strategic Planning: Risks and Opportunities
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VERY UNLIKELY LIKELY VERY UNLIKELY
Some climate variable
Pro
babi
lity
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Emissions Pathways
11
IPCC Emission Scenarios High Medium Low
World Stabilisation ScenarioPeak in emissions at 2016 followed by an annual decrease of 4%
GHG IncreaseGtCO2e
www.defra.gov.uk/adaptation
Where we are nowWhere we are now
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Range of Futures
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Temp RisedegC
Global Average Temperatures
Where we are headingWhere we are heading
IPCC Emission Scenarios
High Medium Low
www.defra.gov.uk/adaptation
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What are they based on?
Where we need to beWhere we need to be
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Temp RisedegC
Global Average Temperatures
Some change is certain
Some change is certain
www.defra.gov.uk/adaptation
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2080s – A Possible Future
Significant Changes
Our houses, infrastructure and natural environment are not adapted
Changes to how we use land, water
International effects
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Summer average temperature
1515
3 to 4ºCincrease
4 to 5ºCincrease
2 to 3ºCincrease
South-East England central estimate
Medium emissions
But we could see 5 times the number of very hot days & the hottest day of the year could be up to 10ºC higher
Unlikely to be less than 2.00C or greater than 6.40C for SE 2080s
www.defra.gov.uk/adaptation
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Summer Temperatures in context
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Source Met Office Hadley Centre
Observed temperatures
Simulated temperatures
2040s
2060s
2003We are already committed to this from past emissions alone
We are already committed to this from past emissions alone
35 000 people died across Northern Europe in the August heat-wave of 2003 – effective planning is essential
www.defra.gov.uk/adaptation
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Summer rainfall
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20 to 30%decrease
30% to 40%decrease
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10% to 20%decrease
South Westcentral estimate
Medium emissions
Unlikely to be less than -49% or greater than +6% for SW, 2080s
www.defra.gov.uk/adaptation
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Winter rainfall
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10% to 20%increase
20% to 30%increase 18
0% to 10%decrease
North West central estimate
Medium Emissions
But the wettest day of the year could see up to 31% more rainfall in the North
Unlikely to be lessthan +3% or greaterthan +35% for NW, 2080s
www.defra.gov.uk/adaptation
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Sea level rise
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High++ scenario: 2100
Rises up to 1.9 m
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Central Estimate Possible Outcome www.defra.gov.uk/adaptation
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Adaptation
• Crystal Balls
• Evidence - Projections & CCRA
• Action Now
• Action in the Future
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What are we doing already?
2121
www.defra.gov.uk/adaptation
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Adaptation Team – Our Framework
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Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA)
National – Regional - Local
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Adaptation Reporting Power
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• key sectors to report on the impacts to them of climate change
• Primary lever for Govt
• Consultation just ended
Current Vulnerability to Climate Change
Responsible for National Infrastructure
No Existing
Comprehensive Regulation Relating to Adaptation
EnergyWaterElectronic communicationsEmergenciesHealth & social careTransportEnvironment
EnergyWaterElectronic communicationsEmergenciesHealth & social careTransportEnvironment
www.defra.gov.uk/adaptation
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Adaptation
• Crystal Balls
• Evidence - Projections & CCRA
• Action Now
• Action in the Future
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Website
LRAP
Climate Change Act
UKCIP
NI188 Guidance
LA support
2009 2010 2011/22008
Projections launch &
rollout
Adaptation Sub-
Committee
Statutory Guidance
Adpt Sub Committee 1st
report
CC Risk Assessment
National Programme
Adaptation in the Short Term
Departmental Adaptation
Plans
www.defra.gov.uk/adaptation
General Election
Regional Strategies
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No Fate But What We Make
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Ambassadors for action on Climate Change
Providing Help to others
Working together