results from uiuc simple climate model evaluation of the relative contributions of the regional...
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![Page 1: Results from UIUC Simple Climate Model Evaluation of the Relative Contributions of the Regional Emissions by Annex I and Non-Annex I to the Historical](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022051517/56649eb55503460f94bbd3d2/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Results from UIUC Simple Climate Model
Evaluation of the Relative Contributions of the Regional Emissions by Annex I
and Non-Annex I to the Historical Global Temperature Change and Sea Level Rise
Natalia Andronova and Michael [email protected] [email protected] Research Group
Department of Atmospheric SciencesUniversity of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
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Phase 1 - Initial check
• HadCM3 climate model4xCO2 A2 future emissions scenario
Timeframe: 1760 to 2100
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Phase 2 - Sensitivity study
• four country groupsOECD in 1990 (OECD)Eastern Europe and former Soviet Union (REF)Asia (ASIA) Africa and Latin America (ALM)
Timeframe
Emissions start dates: 1890 Emission end dates: 2000 The time for which the attribution calculations will be performed: 1980, 1990, 2000
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Model parameters:
• Emissions :Historical: EDGAR database (1.3)
(http://www.rivm.nl/env/int/coredata/edgar/)
Future: A2 emission scenario from the IPCC SRES
• Emissions to Concentrations:
Schlesinger, M. E. and S. Malyshev (2002): Changes in Near-Surface Temperature and Sea Level for the Post-SRES CO2-Stabilization Scenarios.
Integrated Assessment, 2(3), 95-199.
• Concentrations to radiative forcing: as in the IPCC TAR.
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(t) i(t)i 1
4
ij(t) eij (t)
eij(t)j1
4
i (t) , j 1,..., 4
ij(t)j 1
4
i(t) , i 1,...,4
temperature changeor
sea level rise
over gases
over regions
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Case 1:the cumulative emissions for all species
Case 2:the cumulative emissions for GHGinstantaneous for sulfates
Case 3:the cumulative emissions for CO2&N2Oinstantaneous for CH4&sulfates
Global mean temperature change
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ALM
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Case 1:the cumulative emissions for all species
Case 2:the cumulative emissions for GHGinstantaneous for sulfates
Case 3:the cumulative emissions for CO2&N2Oinstantaneous for CH4&sulfates
SEA LEVEL RISE
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Conclusions:
A cooling effect of the sulfate aerosol is highly important
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Recommendations
other aerosols, such as those due to biomass burningand fossil fuelsother greenhouse gases, such as the chlorofluorocarbonsand tropospheric ozone
should be included in the analysis:
to use other coupled GCMs, with different climatesensitivities and different oceanic heat uptakes
to calibrate the simple climate model:
different databases for the historical emissions.