results of surveyusa election poll #24485this research was conducted using blended sample, mixed...

Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #24485Geography: MN 1st CD RBS Sponsors:

Data Collected: 10/16/2018 - 10/20/2018 KAAL-TV (Rochester-Mason City-Austin), KSTP-TV (Minneapolis)

Release Date: 10/23/2018

Percentages

Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #24485 - © 2018 SurveyUSA - www.surveyusa.com

In Minnesota's 1st Congressional District, DFL Candidate Feehan May Have Ever-So-Slight Edge Over Republican Hagedorn:

2 weeks until votes are counted, the fight to fill the U.S. House seat being vacated by DFL Congressman Tim Walz, who is running for Governor, is fiercely fought and too-close-to-call, according to

SurveyUSA research conducted for KAAL-TV in Rochester MN and KSTP-TV in the Twin Cities.

At this hour, it's Democrat Dan Feehan 47%, Republican Jim Hagedorn 45%, within the survey's possible sources of error. The contest could go either way.

If Feehan holds the seat for the Democrats, it will be because women (among whom Feehan leads by 15 points), independents (among whom Feehan leads by 14 points), moderates (among

whom Feehan leads by 45 points), voters focused on healthcare (among whom Feehan leads by 37 points) and middle-income voters (among whom Feehan leads by 10 points) turn out in large

numbers.

If Hagedorn flips the seat for the Republicans, it will be because men (among whom Hagedorn leads by 11 points), voters focused on the economy (among whom Hagedorn leads by 31 points),

voters focused on taxes (among whom Hagedorn leads by 28 points), voters focused on immigration (among whom Hagedorn leads by 60 points), and high-school educated voters (among whom

Hagedorn leads by 16 points) turn out in large numbers.

Hagedorn ran against Walz in 2016 in MN-01 and lost the election to Walz by less than 1 percentage point. In 2018, Hagedorn holds 87% of the Republican base (7% cross-over and vote

Democratic). Among voters in MN-01 who approve of the job Donald Trump is doing as President, Hagedorn leads Feehan by 81 points.

Of concern to Hagedorn: of those poll respondents who tell SurveyUSA they have already returned a ballot, DFL candidate Feehan leads by 25 points. To dig himself out of this hole, Hagedorn

would need to outperform Feehan materially among Election Day voters.

About : SurveyUSA interviewed 700 adults 10/16/18 through 10/20/18. Of the adults, 680 are registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 586 were determined by SurveyUSA to have already

voted or to be likely to do so before the 11/06/18 deadline. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (62% of likely voters)

were called on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (38% of likely voters) were called by live interviewers,

who hand-dialed the cell phone number, secured the cooperation of the respondent, asked the questions, noted the answers and remained on the phone until the conclusion of the call, or were

shown a questionnaire on the display of their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.

1If the election for U.S. House of Representatives were today, and you were filling out your ballot right now, who would you vote for? Republican Jim Hagedorn? Or DFL candidate DanFeehan?

586 Likely & Actual VotersAll

Gender Age <50 / 50+ Already Voted Party Affiliation Ideology

Credibility Interval: +/-4.4 pct points Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ 18-49 50+ Yes No Republi Democr Indepen Conser Modera Liberal

Jim Hagedorn (R) 45% 52% 38% 42% 42% 46% 46% 42% 46% 32% 47% 87% 3% 36% 86% 22% 1%

Dan Feehan (DFL) 47% 41% 53% 45% 45% 47% 49% 45% 48% 57% 45% 7% 94% 50% 9% 67% 95%

Undecided 8% 7% 9% 13% 12% 7% 5% 13% 6% 11% 8% 6% 3% 14% 5% 11% 4%

Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Composition of Likely & Actual Voter 100% 48% 52% 14% 22% 30% 35% 35% 65% 14% 86% 37% 31% 30% 39% 40% 16%

http://www.surveyusa.com




Percentages




Issue Walz Approval Trump Approval 2016 Presidentia 2016 House Vot Education

Credibility Interval: +/-4.4 pct points Taxes Jobs An Educati Healthc Preside Immigra Approv Disappr Approv Disappr Trump Clinton Hagedo Walz High Sc Some C 4-year

Jim Hagedorn (R) 45% 60% 61% 13% 27% 22% 75% 12% 87% 87% 5% 84% 3% 90% 14% 53% 46% 41%

Dan Feehan (DFL) 47% 32% 30% 67% 64% 74% 15% 82% 8% 6% 88% 6% 92% 7% 77% 37% 45% 51%

Undecided 8% 8% 9% 19% 9% 4% 9% 6% 5% 7% 7% 10% 5% 3% 9% 10% 8% 8%

Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Composition of Likely & Actual Voter 100% 11% 12% 7% 30% 13% 10% 49% 32% 46% 49% 46% 40% 36% 53% 16% 36% 49%



Income Urbanicity Suburban Cell Phone / Lan

Credibility Interval: +/-4.4 pct points < $40K $40K - > $80K Urban Suburb Rural Men Women Cell Ph Landlin

Jim Hagedorn (R) 45% 44% 40% 51% 43% 40% 47% 44% 36% 49% 42%

Dan Feehan (DFL) 47% 47% 50% 44% 52% 47% 45% 43% 52% 37% 53%

Undecided 8% 9% 10% 5% 5% 12% 8% 13% 12% 14% 5%

Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Composition of Likely & Actual Voter 100% 20% 42% 38% 24% 19% 52% 10% 9% 38% 62%

2 Is your opinion of Jim Hagedorn ... favorable? Unfavorable? Neutral? Or do you have no opinion of him?




Favorable 34% 41% 28% 29% 29% 36% 38% 29% 37% 27% 35% 64% 7% 26% 68% 15% 6%

Unfavorable 36% 33% 39% 28% 34% 41% 37% 32% 38% 44% 35% 9% 68% 38% 8% 50% 73%

Neutral 21% 18% 24% 32% 23% 16% 20% 27% 18% 21% 21% 21% 19% 24% 17% 26% 14%

No Opinion 9% 8% 9% 11% 14% 7% 6% 13% 6% 8% 9% 6% 6% 11% 7% 9% 7%

Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%






Percentages






Favorable 34% 45% 41% 12% 19% 22% 65% 11% 70% 67% 6% 65% 5% 73% 8% 38% 37% 32%

Unfavorable 36% 16% 24% 45% 49% 66% 14% 64% 9% 4% 67% 6% 67% 5% 61% 24% 35% 40%

Neutral 21% 33% 25% 25% 24% 10% 13% 18% 16% 20% 19% 20% 21% 17% 22% 27% 19% 20%

No Opinion 9% 6% 10% 19% 8% 2% 9% 7% 6% 8% 8% 9% 7% 5% 9% 11% 9% 8%

Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%






Favorable 34% 34% 32% 38% 31% 33% 37% 39% 25% 34% 34%

Unfavorable 36% 33% 39% 35% 40% 31% 36% 35% 27% 28% 41%

Neutral 21% 26% 19% 19% 22% 27% 18% 14% 42% 22% 21%

No Opinion 9% 8% 10% 8% 7% 9% 9% 12% 6% 16% 4%

Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%


3 Is your opinion of Dan Feehan ... favorable? Unfavorable? Neutral? Or do you have no opinion of him?




Favorable 41% 36% 46% 43% 36% 42% 43% 38% 43% 51% 39% 11% 81% 40% 11% 59% 74%

Unfavorable 29% 37% 22% 20% 30% 28% 31% 27% 30% 22% 30% 53% 3% 25% 57% 13% 0%

Neutral 19% 18% 21% 20% 22% 17% 20% 21% 18% 14% 20% 21% 12% 23% 21% 19% 17%

No Opinion 11% 10% 11% 17% 12% 13% 6% 14% 9% 14% 10% 14% 4% 11% 11% 10% 8%

Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%






Percentages






Favorable 41% 23% 27% 52% 57% 68% 15% 73% 5% 6% 75% 7% 79% 7% 68% 34% 36% 46%

Unfavorable 29% 45% 40% 13% 12% 17% 54% 5% 70% 58% 2% 55% 3% 61% 7% 31% 32% 26%

Neutral 19% 23% 23% 24% 21% 9% 18% 16% 17% 22% 17% 23% 15% 21% 17% 22% 20% 18%

No Opinion 11% 8% 11% 10% 10% 6% 13% 6% 9% 15% 5% 16% 3% 11% 8% 14% 11% 10%

Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%






Favorable 41% 40% 43% 40% 47% 44% 38% 39% 49% 34% 45%

Unfavorable 29% 34% 26% 29% 23% 26% 32% 34% 18% 27% 30%

Neutral 19% 18% 19% 21% 21% 15% 21% 11% 19% 19% 20%

No Opinion 11% 7% 12% 10% 10% 15% 10% 16% 14% 20% 5%

Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%






Percentages


4Which one issue will be most important in determining how you vote in this election? Taxes? Jobs and the economy? Education? Healthcare? Terrorism and national security? Thepresidency? Immigration? Gun laws? Or some other issue?




Taxes 11% 13% 10% 15% 16% 10% 8% 16% 9% 4% 12% 15% 6% 14% 14% 12% 5%

Jobs And The Economy 12% 16% 9% 9% 15% 15% 9% 12% 12% 8% 13% 14% 8% 12% 16% 11% 8%

Education 7% 6% 8% 13% 13% 4% 4% 13% 4% 4% 8% 3% 10% 7% 4% 9% 11%

Healthcare 30% 25% 35% 32% 18% 27% 40% 23% 34% 37% 29% 23% 43% 27% 18% 32% 53%

Terrorism And National Security 5% 4% 5% 3% 5% 5% 5% 4% 5% 5% 5% 8% 2% 3% 9% 2% 0%

Presidency 13% 13% 13% 4% 14% 16% 14% 10% 15% 14% 13% 8% 21% 13% 8% 18% 16%

Immigration 10% 10% 11% 11% 5% 13% 11% 7% 12% 19% 9% 16% 4% 12% 17% 7% 1%

Gun Laws 4% 6% 2% 7% 5% 2% 3% 5% 3% 4% 4% 5% 1% 4% 7% 1% 3%

Other 6% 5% 7% 6% 8% 6% 4% 7% 5% 5% 6% 7% 3% 7% 5% 8% 1%

Not Sure 2% 2% 1% 0% 3% 1% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 2% 1% 2% 1% 2%

Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%






Taxes 11% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 6% 22% 17% 6% 16% 4% 14% 8% 10% 9% 13%

Jobs And The Economy 12% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 10% 14% 14% 9% 16% 7% 15% 10% 10% 9% 15%

Education 7% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 11% 2% 3% 11% 2% 11% 4% 9% 7% 4% 9%

Healthcare 30% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 38% 14% 20% 39% 21% 42% 19% 39% 32% 36% 25%

Terrorism And National Security 5% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% 7% 7% 2% 7% 3% 9% 1% 3% 7% 3%

Presidency 13% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 21% 6% 6% 21% 6% 22% 7% 18% 9% 15% 14%

Immigration 10% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 3% 22% 18% 3% 18% 3% 19% 4% 15% 9% 10%

Gun Laws 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 4% 5% 6% 2% 6% 2% 5% 3% 5% 4% 3%

Other 6% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 4% 6% 5% 6% 6% 5% 5% 5% 4% 7% 6%

Not Sure 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% 2% 2% 1% 2% 1% 1% 2% 4% 1% 1%

Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%






Percentages






Taxes 11% 7% 10% 13% 11% 9% 12% 9% 8% 13% 10%

Jobs And The Economy 12% 9% 10% 16% 10% 15% 12% 15% 14% 15% 10%

Education 7% 3% 9% 8% 12% 4% 7% 4% 4% 12% 4%

Healthcare 30% 40% 32% 23% 35% 31% 27% 32% 31% 26% 33%

Terrorism And National Security 5% 10% 4% 3% 4% 6% 4% 4% 9% 3% 6%

Presidency 13% 9% 14% 15% 12% 15% 13% 17% 14% 7% 17%

Immigration 10% 13% 10% 9% 9% 10% 12% 8% 12% 11% 10%

Gun Laws 4% 4% 3% 5% 1% 4% 5% 7% 0% 4% 4%

Other 6% 5% 5% 7% 5% 6% 6% 2% 9% 7% 5%

Not Sure 2% 1% 2% 2% 2% 1% 2% 1% 0% 2% 2%

Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%


5 Do you approve or disapprove of the job Tim Walz is doing as US Representative?




Approve 49% 45% 53% 49% 49% 48% 51% 49% 49% 59% 48% 16% 84% 54% 19% 64% 92%

Disapprove 32% 41% 25% 19% 38% 33% 33% 31% 33% 26% 33% 56% 5% 32% 61% 17% 2%

Not Sure 18% 15% 22% 32% 13% 19% 16% 20% 17% 15% 19% 28% 11% 13% 20% 19% 6%

Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%






Percentages






Approve 49% 27% 42% 76% 61% 77% 16% 100% 0% 16% 85% 15% 86% 12% 81% 38% 43% 57%

Disapprove 32% 63% 38% 11% 15% 16% 67% 0% 100% 61% 4% 60% 2% 68% 9% 32% 35% 31%

Not Sure 18% 10% 20% 13% 24% 7% 16% 0% 0% 23% 12% 25% 12% 20% 11% 30% 22% 12%

Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%






Approve 49% 47% 52% 49% 58% 44% 48% 45% 42% 43% 53%

Disapprove 32% 30% 28% 36% 23% 30% 36% 41% 18% 33% 32%

Not Sure 18% 23% 20% 16% 19% 27% 16% 14% 40% 24% 15%

Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%


6 Do you approve? Or disapprove? Of the job Donald Trump is doing as President?




Approve 46% 54% 39% 45% 42% 48% 47% 43% 48% 39% 47% 85% 5% 40% 84% 26% 3%

Disapprove 49% 41% 55% 48% 50% 48% 48% 49% 48% 55% 47% 9% 92% 52% 10% 68% 96%

Not Sure 5% 5% 5% 7% 8% 4% 5% 7% 4% 6% 5% 6% 3% 8% 6% 6% 1%

Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%






Percentages






Approve 46% 70% 54% 19% 31% 21% 80% 15% 87% 100% 0% 90% 3% 86% 18% 53% 48% 42%

Disapprove 49% 25% 37% 76% 62% 79% 15% 83% 6% 0% 100% 6% 94% 10% 77% 43% 46% 53%

Not Sure 5% 5% 9% 5% 7% 0% 5% 2% 8% 0% 0% 5% 3% 5% 5% 4% 6% 6%

Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%






Approve 46% 45% 41% 50% 40% 43% 49% 46% 40% 51% 43%

Disapprove 49% 51% 52% 45% 55% 44% 48% 41% 48% 41% 53%

Not Sure 5% 4% 6% 4% 5% 13% 3% 13% 13% 8% 4%

Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%


7 Do you agree or disagree with Donald Trump's policies on immigration?




Agree 47% 55% 40% 40% 42% 48% 52% 41% 50% 39% 48% 83% 7% 43% 82% 29% 6%

Disagree 46% 39% 52% 49% 49% 45% 43% 49% 44% 52% 45% 8% 90% 50% 12% 64% 89%

Not Sure 7% 6% 8% 11% 9% 6% 5% 10% 5% 9% 7% 9% 4% 8% 6% 8% 5%

Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%






Percentages






Agree 47% 71% 58% 19% 32% 25% 84% 17% 86% 90% 7% 88% 7% 83% 20% 58% 47% 43%

Disagree 46% 23% 34% 71% 60% 73% 12% 80% 6% 3% 90% 3% 90% 10% 74% 35% 45% 51%

Not Sure 7% 5% 8% 10% 8% 1% 4% 4% 8% 7% 3% 8% 4% 7% 6% 8% 8% 6%

Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%






Agree 47% 44% 44% 51% 42% 48% 48% 47% 49% 47% 47%

Disagree 46% 48% 50% 42% 54% 42% 45% 45% 38% 42% 48%

Not Sure 7% 8% 6% 7% 4% 10% 7% 7% 13% 10% 5%

Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%


8 Do you agree or disagree with Donald Trump's policies on taxes?




Agree 43% 51% 35% 44% 42% 44% 42% 43% 43% 36% 44% 78% 4% 41% 77% 24% 5%

Disagree 45% 42% 49% 40% 46% 45% 47% 44% 46% 58% 43% 8% 90% 45% 8% 65% 90%

Not Sure 12% 7% 16% 15% 12% 11% 11% 13% 11% 6% 13% 14% 6% 14% 15% 10% 5%

Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%






Percentages






Agree 43% 72% 59% 16% 26% 23% 74% 16% 80% 83% 6% 80% 5% 81% 16% 45% 42% 42%

Disagree 45% 26% 30% 66% 62% 75% 12% 78% 7% 3% 87% 7% 88% 5% 76% 38% 46% 47%

Not Sure 12% 2% 11% 17% 12% 2% 14% 6% 14% 14% 7% 14% 7% 14% 8% 17% 11% 10%

Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%






Agree 43% 37% 40% 48% 39% 44% 44% 44% 45% 50% 38%

Disagree 45% 51% 47% 43% 50% 45% 44% 50% 40% 37% 50%

Not Sure 12% 12% 13% 10% 11% 10% 12% 5% 16% 13% 11%

Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%


9 Do you agree or disagree with Donald Trump's policies on foreign relations?




Agree 43% 52% 35% 39% 41% 45% 44% 40% 45% 37% 44% 77% 5% 40% 81% 23% 3%

Disagree 49% 43% 56% 56% 48% 49% 48% 51% 49% 55% 49% 13% 91% 52% 14% 68% 95%

Not Sure 7% 5% 10% 4% 11% 6% 8% 9% 7% 8% 7% 10% 4% 8% 5% 9% 2%

Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%






Percentages






Agree 43% 58% 57% 31% 26% 20% 85% 14% 84% 85% 2% 81% 5% 79% 17% 44% 45% 40%

Disagree 49% 30% 37% 67% 65% 77% 14% 81% 9% 5% 95% 8% 91% 11% 77% 42% 49% 53%

Not Sure 7% 12% 6% 2% 9% 3% 1% 5% 7% 11% 3% 10% 5% 10% 6% 13% 6% 7%

Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%






Agree 43% 36% 43% 45% 36% 46% 44% 47% 44% 47% 40%

Disagree 49% 50% 52% 48% 58% 46% 48% 46% 46% 43% 53%

Not Sure 7% 13% 4% 7% 6% 9% 8% 7% 10% 9% 6%

Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%


10The Trump administration placed tariffs on many U.S. goods and products with the hopes of negotiating a better trade deal with China. In the short term, many crop prices have droppedand hurt farmers. Do you agree or diagree with this policy?




Agree 37% 47% 28% 36% 36% 36% 40% 36% 38% 30% 39% 66% 6% 36% 71% 20% 3%

Disagree 53% 44% 62% 52% 55% 55% 52% 54% 53% 63% 52% 21% 91% 56% 18% 73% 90%

Not Sure 9% 8% 10% 12% 10% 9% 9% 10% 9% 7% 10% 14% 3% 8% 11% 7% 7%

Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%






Percentages






Agree 37% 58% 45% 23% 23% 17% 71% 15% 68% 72% 5% 69% 7% 67% 15% 40% 40% 34%

Disagree 53% 31% 47% 68% 70% 76% 23% 81% 18% 16% 90% 17% 89% 21% 79% 49% 52% 56%

Not Sure 9% 10% 7% 9% 7% 7% 5% 4% 14% 13% 4% 14% 3% 12% 6% 11% 8% 10%

Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%






Agree 37% 32% 33% 45% 29% 36% 41% 38% 34% 36% 38%

Disagree 53% 59% 55% 50% 60% 55% 51% 54% 56% 52% 54%

Not Sure 9% 9% 12% 5% 11% 9% 9% 8% 11% 12% 8%

Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%






Percentages


Statement of Methodology: SurveyUSA is an independent, non-partisan, apolitical research company that conducts opinion surveys for media, academic institutions, commercial clients,

non-profits, governments, agencies, and elected officials. SurveyUSA opinion research is conducted using a methodology optimized for each particular project. In some cases, this means data is

collected 100% by telephone; in some cases, 100% online; and in other cases, a blend of the two. For those projects that are conducted “mixed-mode” (or “multi-mode”): Respondents who have a

home (landline) telephone are interviewed by phone, sometimes using live interviewers, other times using the recorded voice of a professional announcer. The youngest male is requested on

approximately 30% of calls to home phones, the youngest adult is requested on approximately 70% of calls. This method of intra-household selection reduces the potential for age and gender

imbalance in the unweighted sample. Re-attempts are made to busy signals, no-answers, and answering machines. Landline telephone sample is purchased from Aristotle of Washington DC.

Respondents who do not use a home telephone are interviewed on an electronic device, which means, for some projects, that call-center employees hand-dial cell phones and interview

respondents verbally on the respondent’s cell phone, and means, for other projects, that SurveyUSA displays the questions visually on the respondent’s phone, tablet, or other device. Sample for

respondents who do not use a home telephone is purchased from Aristotle or from one of several other research companies that provide access to cell respondents. Where meaningful,

SurveyUSA indicates the percentage of respondents who use a home phone and the percentage who do not, and crosstabs by this distinction. Responses are minimally weighted to U.S. Census

or voter file targets for gender, age and race. Target (cell) weighting is used. On questionnaires that ask about political party identification, SurveyUSA may or may not weight to Party ID, depending

on client preference. Where necessary, questions and answer choices are rotated to prevent order bias, recency, and latency effects. On some studies, certain populations are over-sampled, so

that the number of unweighted respondents exceeds the number of weighted respondents. Each individual SurveyUSA release contains the date(s) on which interviews are conducted and a

release date. If interviewing for a particular study is conducted in Spanish, or in any other foreign language, it will be noted on the specific release. If no notation appears, interviews are conducted

in English. Where respondents are filtered, such as adults, filtered to registered voters, in turn filtered to likely voters, SurveyUSA describes the filtering on the specific release. On pre-election polls

in geographies with early voting, SurveyUSA differentiates between respondents who have already voted and those who are likely to vote but have not yet done so. On research completed prior to

12/31/16, SurveyUSA assigned to each question within the instrument a theoretical margin of sampling error. Effective 01/01/17, SurveyUSA assigns to each question within the instrument a

credibility interval, which better reflects the sampling uncertainties associated with gathering some percentage of respondent answers using non-probability sample. Though commonly cited in the

presentation of research results, “sampling error” is only one of many types of error that may influence the outcome of an opinion research study. More practical concerns include the way in which

questions are worded and ordered, the inability to contact some, the refusal of others to be interviewed, and the difficulty of translating each questionnaire into all possible languages and dialects.

Non-sampling errors cannot be quantified. This statement conforms to the principals of disclosure as recommended by the National Council on Public Polls (NCPP). Questions about SurveyUSA

research can be addressed to [email protected].


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