results of the 2006 business trends survey presentation by: dirk von holt (superior signals inc)...
TRANSCRIPT
Results of the 2006 Business Trends Survey
Presentation by:Dirk von Holt (Superior Signals Inc)
Business Trends 2006 Task Force
Committee members include:Aurelio Carinci (Exide)
Ed Dailey (GSP)Dick Davidson (Thombert)
Bob Warren (Cascade)
ITA Fall MeetingThe Breakers
Florida, September 2006
ChinaChinaProcurementProcurement
Forks, Attachments, Hydraulic ControlsForks, Attachments, Hydraulic ControlsBatteries and ChargersBatteries and Chargers Miscellaneous TopicsMiscellaneous Topics
ChinaChina
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º ITA
1)1) On a On a scale of 1 to 10scale of 1 to 10, with 10 indicating a very significant likelihood, what is the , with 10 indicating a very significant likelihood, what is the likelihood that forklift companies currently manufacturing in the United States will look likelihood that forklift companies currently manufacturing in the United States will look to to ChinaChina as a as a potential marketpotential market in the following ways? (#2) in the following ways? (#2)
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LowLow
HighHigh
19 responses19 responses
A. Exporting US A. Exporting US produced products produced products to Chinato China
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19 responses19 responses
B. Partnering with B. Partnering with Chinese forklift mfg Chinese forklift mfg to produce trucks in to produce trucks in ChinaChina
1)1) On a On a scale of 1 to 10scale of 1 to 10, with 10 indicating a very significant likelihood, what is the , with 10 indicating a very significant likelihood, what is the likelihood that forklift companies currently manufacturing in the United States will look likelihood that forklift companies currently manufacturing in the United States will look to to ChinaChina as a as a potential marketpotential market in the following ways? (#2) in the following ways? (#2)
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19 responses19 responses
C. Seeking parts C. Seeking parts suppliers in Chinasuppliers in China
1)1) On a On a scale of 1 to 10scale of 1 to 10, with 10 indicating a very significant likelihood, what is the , with 10 indicating a very significant likelihood, what is the likelihood that forklift companies currently manufacturing in the United States will look likelihood that forklift companies currently manufacturing in the United States will look to to ChinaChina as a as a potential marketpotential market in the following ways? (#2) in the following ways? (#2)
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19 responses19 responses
D. Building trucks in D. Building trucks in China for the China for the Chinese marketChinese market
1)1) On a On a scale of 1 to 10scale of 1 to 10, with 10 indicating a very significant likelihood, what is the , with 10 indicating a very significant likelihood, what is the likelihood that forklift companies currently manufacturing in the United States will look likelihood that forklift companies currently manufacturing in the United States will look to to ChinaChina as a as a potential marketpotential market in the following ways? (#2) in the following ways? (#2)
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Class 5Class 5
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Class 4Class 4
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2) On a 2) On a scale of 1 to 10scale of 1 to 10, with 10 indicating a very significant impact, , with 10 indicating a very significant impact, what will be the impact of what will be the impact of Chinese-produced lift trucks on the Chinese-produced lift trucks on the North AmericanNorth American market over the next 5 years? (#3) market over the next 5 years? (#3)
20 responses20 responses 20 responses20 responses18 responses18 responses
19 responses19 responses 19 responses19 responses 19 responses19 responses
Class 2Class 2
HPT’sHPT’s
ChinaChina
ProcurementProcurement
3) With regard to 3) With regard to procurement practices and outsourcingprocurement practices and outsourcing, please state the percentage of your , please state the percentage of your business, currently and in five years, which can be characterized in the following ways. (#8)business, currently and in five years, which can be characterized in the following ways. (#8)
A.A. What percent of your components are you buying and What percent of your components are you buying and assembling yourself?assembling yourself?2006: 50%2006: 50% 2011: 47%2011: 47%
C.C. What percent of your components and subassemblies are you What percent of your components and subassemblies are you manufacturing?manufacturing?2006: 35%2006: 35% 2011: 37%2011: 37%
B. What percent of complete subassembly units are you buying from B. What percent of complete subassembly units are you buying from suppliers?suppliers?2006: 34%2006: 34% 2011: 37%2011: 37%
4) Of the following, please circle the 4) Of the following, please circle the top three considerationstop three considerations that you feel will that you feel will most impactmost impact the sourcingthe sourcing of products in the next 5 years (# 9) of products in the next 5 years (# 9)
# 1: Costs (named 16 times, 14x in 2005)# 1: Costs (named 16 times, 14x in 2005)# 2: Quality (named 8 times, 4x in 2005)# 2: Quality (named 8 times, 4x in 2005)# 3: Globalization of companies (named 6 times, 1x in 2005)# 3: Globalization of companies (named 6 times, 1x in 2005)# 4: Exchange rate/Strength of the US Dollar (5x, 3x in 2005)# 4: Exchange rate/Strength of the US Dollar (5x, 3x in 2005)
5) 5) On a scale of 1 to 10, with 10 indicating a very significant likelihood, what is the On a scale of 1 to 10, with 10 indicating a very significant likelihood, what is the likelihood that your company and your major customers will likelihood that your company and your major customers will increase the use increase the use of reverse internet auctionsof reverse internet auctions for sourcing? (# 10) for sourcing? (# 10)
Your company
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Lift trucks Parts
Your customer
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Lift trucks Parts
6) Will your 6) Will your supplier basesupplier base substantially increase, substantially decrease, or substantially increase, substantially decrease, or stay approximately the same over the next five years? (# 11)stay approximately the same over the next five years? (# 11)
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increase decrease the same
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19 responses19 responses
7) On a scale of 1 to 10, with 1 being of no importance and 10 being of great 7) On a scale of 1 to 10, with 1 being of no importance and 10 being of great importance, how important to your purchase decisions is the availability of importance, how important to your purchase decisions is the availability of engineering support from your supplierengineering support from your supplier? (# 12)? (# 12)
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19 responses19 responses
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ProcurementProcurement
Forks, Attachments, Hydraulic ControlsForks, Attachments, Hydraulic Controls
8)8) What percentage increase in the use of What percentage increase in the use of “integral” versus “hang on” side shifters“integral” versus “hang on” side shifters do you predict for the North American market by do you predict for the North American market by 20112011? (# 1)? (# 1)
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0-25% 26-50% 51-75% 76-100%
19 responses19 responses
vs.vs.
9)9) On a scale of 1 to 10 being most likely, how would you rate the likelihood of On a scale of 1 to 10 being most likely, how would you rate the likelihood of future future technology changestechnology changes within specific product areas for new vehicles now and 2011 (# 13) within specific product areas for new vehicles now and 2011 (# 13)
A. Forks and A. Forks and attachmentsattachments
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18 responses18 responses
B. Use of fork B. Use of fork positionerspositioners
With “hang on” With “hang on” fork positionersfork positioners
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18 responses18 responses
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With “integral” With “integral” fork positionersfork positioners
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9)9) On a scale of 1 to 10 being most likely, how would you rate the likelihood of future On a scale of 1 to 10 being most likely, how would you rate the likelihood of future technology changes within specific product areas for new vehicles now and 2011 (# 13)technology changes within specific product areas for new vehicles now and 2011 (# 13)
C. Sideshifting C. Sideshifting and positioning and positioning togethertogether
With “hang on”With “hang on”
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With “integral”With “integral”
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2003: 2.72003: 2.72005: 5.12005: 5.1
9)9) On a scale of 1 to 10 being most likely, how would you rate the likelihood of future On a scale of 1 to 10 being most likely, how would you rate the likelihood of future technology changes within specific product areas for new vehicles now and 2011 (# 13)technology changes within specific product areas for new vehicles now and 2011 (# 13)
D. Use of these D. Use of these technologies in technologies in high volume high volume truckstrucks
As “hang on” productsAs “hang on” products
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As “integral” productsAs “integral” products
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9)9) On a scale of 1 to 10 being most likely, how would you rate the likelihood of future On a scale of 1 to 10 being most likely, how would you rate the likelihood of future technology changes within specific product areas for new vehicles now and 2011 (# 13)technology changes within specific product areas for new vehicles now and 2011 (# 13)
11) With regard to electro-hydraulic controls for IC and battery 4-wheel trucks, what percentage 11) With regard to electro-hydraulic controls for IC and battery 4-wheel trucks, what percentage of each do you anticipate will be using electro-hydraulic controls in 2007 and 2010? (#22)of each do you anticipate will be using electro-hydraulic controls in 2007 and 2010? (#22)
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IC trucksIC trucks Battery 4-wheel trucksBattery 4-wheel trucks
16 responses16 responses 16 responses16 responses
10)10) What percentage of trucks will What percentage of trucks will use single valve technology to use single valve technology to control multiple functions in control multiple functions in 2007 and 2010? (# 14)2007 and 2010? (# 14)
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Forks, Attachments, Hydraulic ControlsForks, Attachments, Hydraulic Controls
Batteries and ChargersBatteries and Chargers
12) With regard to batteries and chargers, what percentage of trucks will 12) With regard to batteries and chargers, what percentage of trucks will use fast charging and 80 volt batteries in 2007 and 2010? (# 15)use fast charging and 80 volt batteries in 2007 and 2010? (# 15)
A.A. Fast chargingFast charging 2007: 17%2007: 17% 2010: 25% 2010: 25% 12 responses12 responses last years survey 9%last years survey 9% 33% 33%
B. 80 volt batteriesB. 80 volt batteries 2007: 10%2007: 10% 2010: 15% 2010: 15% 20 responses20 responses
last years survey 6%last years survey 6% 15% 15%
C. Will international standards be developed regarding fast charging C. Will international standards be developed regarding fast charging in the following areas by 2011:in the following areas by 2011: 14 responses14 responses
Plug Type
yes no
Cable Size
yes no
Connection
yes no
Inter-cell connection
yes no
Safety
yes no
13) What is the likelihood that international standard will be developed 13) What is the likelihood that international standard will be developed for fast charging and 80 volt batteries in 2007 and 2010? (# 16)for fast charging and 80 volt batteries in 2007 and 2010? (# 16)
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very likely is likely is notlikely
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Fast chargingFast charging 20072007 20102010
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80 volt batteries80 volt batteries 20072007 20102010
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18 responses18 responses19 responses19 responses
17 responses17 responses
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14) What percent of the market will be garnered by 14) What percent of the market will be garnered by opportunity chargingopportunity charging by 2011? (# 17) by 2011? (# 17)
15) On a sale of 1 to 10 being very likely, what is the likelihood that the increasing sales 15) On a sale of 1 to 10 being very likely, what is the likelihood that the increasing sales volume of hybrid automobiles and their volume of hybrid automobiles and their higher voltagehigher voltage (312 volts etc.) will lead to the (312 volts etc.) will lead to the greater use of greater use of auto hybrid componentsauto hybrid components and higher voltage driveline systems in electric and higher voltage driveline systems in electric forklifts by forklifts by 20112011? (# 18)? (# 18)
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16) Will 16) Will nickel metal hydride or lithium battery chemistriesnickel metal hydride or lithium battery chemistries find significant (more find significant (more than 20 %) use in forklifts by than 20 %) use in forklifts by 20112011? (# 19)? (# 19)
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yes No
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Batteries and ChargersBatteries and Chargers
MiscellaneousMiscellaneous
17)17) A. A. Do you believe that Do you believe that fuel cellsfuel cells will be a significant share of the market? If so, when? (# 4) will be a significant share of the market? If so, when? (# 4)
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B. B. What truck classes will most likely use fuel cells by 2011?What truck classes will most likely use fuel cells by 2011?
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Cl 1 Cl 2 Cl 3 Cl 4 Cl 5
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IC trucks in % of total US shipmentsIC trucks in % of total US shipments
18)18) On a scale of 1 to 10, with 10 indicating a strong shift, how much of a shift will there be On a scale of 1 to 10, with 10 indicating a strong shift, how much of a shift will there be away from IC powered trucks towards electric powered trucks in the North American away from IC powered trucks towards electric powered trucks in the North American market in the next five years? (# 5)market in the next five years? (# 5)
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19) What is the likelihood that the soon-to-be-implemented Canadian regulation 19) What is the likelihood that the soon-to-be-implemented Canadian regulation requiring technician training will result in the requiring technician training will result in the availabilityavailability of information onof information on proprietary diagnostic systemsproprietary diagnostic systems (that are currently available only to (that are currently available only to authorized dealers) authorized dealers) to anyoneto anyone involved in repair? (# 7) involved in repair? (# 7)
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is likely is not likely
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20) On a 20) On a scale of 1 to 10scale of 1 to 10 with 10 being very important, how important are with 10 being very important, how important are lower after lower after sale maintenance costssale maintenance costs on new forklift models that your company will sell in the on new forklift models that your company will sell in the future? (# 6)future? (# 6)
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LPG Gasoline Diesel
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Class IVClass IV2004: 41,5372004: 41,5372005: 42,0472005: 42,047
Class VClass V2004: 46,8212004: 46,8212005: 51,3612005: 51,361
21) For engine powered forklifts, do you see an increase or decrease in the use of 21) For engine powered forklifts, do you see an increase or decrease in the use of the following fuels? (# 20)the following fuels? (# 20)
US and Canada Net Factory Orders ClassUS and Canada Net Factory Orders Class
US and Canada Net Factory Orders ClassUS and Canada Net Factory Orders Class
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increase decrease the same
21) For engine powered forklifts, do you see an increase or decrease in the use of 21) For engine powered forklifts, do you see an increase or decrease in the use of the following fuels? (# 20)the following fuels? (# 20)
18 responses18 responses
DieselDiesel
18 responses18 responses
GasolineGasoline
17 responses17 responses
CNGCNG
18 responses18 responses
LPGLPG
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increase decrease the same
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increase decrease the same
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22) What do you believe the trend will be regarding the use of each of the following 22) What do you believe the trend will be regarding the use of each of the following electric motor technologies between 2007 and 2010? (# 21)electric motor technologies between 2007 and 2010? (# 21)
16 responses16 responses
ACAC
18 responses18 responses
Brushless DCBrushless DC
19 responses19 responses
Separately Separately ExcitedExcited
18 responses18 responses
SeriesSeries
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increase decrease the same
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Results of the 2006 Business Trends Survey
Presentation by:Dirk von Holt (Superior Signals Inc)
Business Trends 2006 Task Force
Committee members include:Aurelio Carinci (Exide)
Ed Dailey (GSP)Dick Davidson (Thombert)
Bob Warren (Cascade)
ITA Fall MeetingThe Breakers
Florida, September 2006