results review 4qfy19 07 may 2019 marico - 4qfy19 - hdfc sec... · marico is amidst a copra...

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RESULTS REVIEW 4QFY19 07 MAY 2019 Marico BUY HDFC securities Institutional Research is also available on Bloomberg HSLB <GO>& Thomson Reuters Modest domestic show Marico’s 4Q performance was mixed albeit healthier vs. Dabur & GCPL. Revenues missed our estimates despite in- line volume growth while GM expansion beat estimates (tactical purchase of RM). We cut EPS estimates by 4-5% over FY20-21E to factor moderation in demand and GM expansion. However, we remain constructive on Marico and believe its performance will be superior to its peers in FY20. We value the co. at 35x on FY21 EPS arriving at a TP of Rs 386. Maintain BUY. HIGHLIGHTS OF THE QUARTER Domestic revenue/volume grew at 7/8% (16/8% in FY19) vs. our exp of 12/7.5%. Consol. revenue growth (+9%) was driven by international biz (14/7% value/cc growth). Urban/Rural GT growth moderated (-2/4%) while modern trade supported domestic growth (28%). PCNO grew by 4/6% value/volume. Softer revenue growth was on account of higher promotions. Copra prices were down 19% YoY in 4Q. Prices began to deflate in Mar after a spike in Jan and Feb on account of cyclone Gaja in Nov. Copra prices are expected to stay range-bound in the near-term and hence mgt. will pass on value via promotions instead of price cuts. VAHO’s performance remained weak at 7/1% value/volume growth. The portfolio has been challenged in the recent past owing to higher competitive intensity in the bottom of the pyramid and slowdown in rural. In 4Q, Marico cut prices by 5% (passed on cost deflation) which disrupted trade – volume growth is expected to bounce back in 1Q. Saffola edible oil posted its best quarter (15/18% value/vol.) in the last 3 years as the management fixed the brands marketing strategy. We will be closely tracking if recovery is sustainable. GM expanded by 239bps (exp 125bps) led by soft input prices. Higher than expected ASP spend (29% growth) resulted in 56bps EBITDAM expansion (exp. 116bps). India/international EBIT grew by flat/77% which reflects muted domestic performance. STANCE Marico is amidst a copra deflationary cycle and plans to capitalize by building its futuristic portfolio. The co. is reinvesting its GM expansion into higher A&P spends to support new launches. In the recent past, the co. has launched several products in categories like premium hair oil, food and male grooming. Although the products are niche and may not have a high success rate, we admire the management’s aggression which will aid in driving product diversification and long-term growth. Financial Summary YE March (Rs mn) 4QFY19 4QFY18 YoY (%) 3QFY19 QoQ (%) FY17 FY18 FY19P FY20E FY21E Net Revenues 16,090 14,801 8.7 18,610 (13.5) 59,178 63,222 73,336 81,599 91,730 EBITDA 2,830 2,520 12.3 3,489 (18.9) 11,593 11,378 12,809 15,966 18,857 APAT 2,137 1,803 18.5 2,473 (13.6) 8,026 8,142 9,309 11,806 14,247 Diluted EPS (Rs) 1.66 1.40 18.5 1.92 (13.6) 6.22 6.31 7.21 9.15 11.04 P/E (x) 54.7 53.9 47.1 37.2 30.8 EV / EBITDA (x) 37.8 38.6 34.1 27.3 23.2 Core RoCE (%) 49.3 40.6 48.8 48.6 55.5 Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research INDUSTRY FMCG CMP (as on 06 May 2019) Rs 340 Target Price Rs 386 Nifty 11,598 Sensex 38,600 KEY STOCK DATA Bloomberg MRCO IN No. of Shares (mn) 1,291 MCap (Rs bn) / ($ mn) 438/6,317 6m avg traded value (Rs mn) 642 STOCK PERFORMANCE (%) 52 Week high / low Rs 397/283 3M 6M 12M Absolute (%) (6.9) 1.4 7.2 Relative (%) (11.3) (9.0) (3.4) SHAREHOLDING PATTERN (%) Dec-18 Mar-19 Promoters 59.71 59.71 FIs & Local MFs 5.88 5.47 FPIs 26.44 26.56 Public & Others 7.97 8.26 Pledged Shares 0.00 0.00 Source : BSE Naveen Trivedi [email protected] +91-22-6171-7324 Siddhant Chhabria [email protected] +91-22-6171-7336

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Page 1: RESULTS REVIEW 4QFY19 07 MAY 2019 Marico - 4QFY19 - HDFC sec... · Marico is amidst a copra deflationary cycle and plans to capitalize by building its futuristic portfolio. The co

RESULTS REVIEW 4QFY19 07 MAY 2019

Marico BUY

HDFC securities Institutional Research is also available on Bloomberg HSLB <GO>& Thomson Reuters

Modest domestic showMarico’s 4Q performance was mixed albeit healthier vs. Dabur & GCPL. Revenues missed our estimates despite in-line volume growth while GM expansion beat estimates (tactical purchase of RM). We cut EPS estimates by 4-5% over FY20-21E to factor moderation in demand and GM expansion. However, we remain constructive on Marico and believe its performance will be superior to its peers in FY20. We value the co. at 35x on FY21 EPS arriving at a TP of Rs 386. Maintain BUY. HIGHLIGHTS OF THE QUARTER Domestic revenue/volume grew at 7/8% (16/8% in

FY19) vs. our exp of 12/7.5%. Consol. revenue growth (+9%) was driven by international biz (14/7% value/cc growth). Urban/Rural GT growth moderated (-2/4%) while modern trade supported domestic growth (28%).

PCNO grew by 4/6% value/volume. Softer revenue growth was on account of higher promotions. Copra prices were down 19% YoY in 4Q. Prices began to deflate in Mar after a spike in Jan and Feb on account of cyclone Gaja in Nov. Copra prices are expected to stay range-bound in the near-term and hence mgt. will pass on value via promotions instead of price cuts.

VAHO’s performance remained weak at 7/1% value/volume growth. The portfolio has been

challenged in the recent past owing to higher competitive intensity in the bottom of the pyramid and slowdown in rural. In 4Q, Marico cut prices by 5% (passed on cost deflation) which disrupted trade – volume growth is expected to bounce back in 1Q.

Saffola edible oil posted its best quarter (15/18% value/vol.) in the last 3 years as the management fixed the brands marketing strategy. We will be closely tracking if recovery is sustainable.

GM expanded by 239bps (exp 125bps) led by soft input prices. Higher than expected ASP spend (29% growth) resulted in 56bps EBITDAM expansion (exp. 116bps). India/international EBIT grew by flat/77% which reflects muted domestic performance.

STANCE Marico is amidst a copra deflationary cycle and plans to capitalize by building its futuristic portfolio. The co. is reinvesting its GM expansion into higher A&P spends to support new launches. In the recent past, the co. has launched several products in categories like premium hair oil, food and male grooming. Although the products are niche and may not have a high success rate, we admire the management’s aggression which will aid in driving product diversification and long-term growth.

Financial Summary YE March (Rs mn) 4QFY19 4QFY18 YoY (%) 3QFY19 QoQ (%) FY17 FY18 FY19P FY20E FY21E Net Revenues 16,090 14,801 8.7 18,610 (13.5) 59,178 63,222 73,336 81,599 91,730 EBITDA 2,830 2,520 12.3 3,489 (18.9) 11,593 11,378 12,809 15,966 18,857 APAT 2,137 1,803 18.5 2,473 (13.6) 8,026 8,142 9,309 11,806 14,247 Diluted EPS (Rs) 1.66 1.40 18.5 1.92 (13.6) 6.22 6.31 7.21 9.15 11.04 P/E (x) 54.7 53.9 47.1 37.2 30.8 EV / EBITDA (x) 37.8 38.6 34.1 27.3 23.2 Core RoCE (%) 49.3 40.6 48.8 48.6 55.5

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

INDUSTRY FMCG CMP (as on 06 May 2019) Rs 340 Target Price Rs 386 Nifty 11,598 Sensex 38,600 KEY STOCK DATA Bloomberg MRCO IN No. of Shares (mn) 1,291 MCap (Rs bn) / ($ mn) 438/6,317 6m avg traded value (Rs mn) 642 STOCK PERFORMANCE (%) 52 Week high / low Rs 397/283 3M 6M 12M Absolute (%) (6.9) 1.4 7.2 Relative (%) (11.3) (9.0) (3.4) SHAREHOLDING PATTERN (%) Dec-18 Mar-19 Promoters 59.71 59.71 FIs & Local MFs 5.88 5.47 FPIs 26.44 26.56 Public & Others 7.97 8.26 Pledged Shares 0.00 0.00 Source : BSE

Naveen Trivedi [email protected] +91-22-6171-7324

Siddhant Chhabria [email protected] +91-22-6171-7336

Page 2: RESULTS REVIEW 4QFY19 07 MAY 2019 Marico - 4QFY19 - HDFC sec... · Marico is amidst a copra deflationary cycle and plans to capitalize by building its futuristic portfolio. The co

MARICO: RESULTS REVIEW 4QFY19

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Quarterly Financials Year to March (Rs mn) 4QFY19 4QFY18 YoY (%) 3QFY19 QoQ (%) FY19 FY18 YoY (%) Net Revenue 16,090 14,801 8.7 18,610 (13.5) 73,340 63,220 16.0 Material Expenses 8,200 7,896 3.8 9,994 (17.9) 40,170 33,480 20.0 Employee Expenses 1,170 1,035 13.1 1,204 (2.9) 4,660 4,220 10.4 ASP Expenses 1,530 1,190 28.6 1,644 (6.9) 6,590 5,880 12.1 Other Expenses 2,360 2,160 9.3 2,279 3.6 9,110 8,270 10.2 EBITDA 2,830 2,520 12.3 3,489 (18.9) 12,810 11,370 12.7 Depreciation 290 231 25.6 226 28.4 960 890 7.9 EBIT 2,540 2,289 11.0 3,264 (22.2) 11,850 10,480 13.1 Other Income 280 229 22.4 216 29.8 1,030 850 21.2 Interest Cost 80 53 51.2 48 67.0 240 160 50.0 PBT 2,740 2,465 11.2 3,431 (20.1) 12,630 11,170 13.1 Tax (1,320) 642 (305.6) 914 (244.4) 1,280 2,900 (55.9) PAT 4,010 1,803 122.4 2,473 62.2 11,182 8,142 37.3 Exceptional Items (1,873) (0) na - na (1,873) - na APAT 2,137 1,803 18.5 2,473 (13.6) 9,309 8,142 14.3 EPS 1.7 1.4 18.5 1.9 (13.6) 7.2 6.3 14.3

As % Of Net Revenue 4QFY19 4QFY18 YoY (bps) 3QFY19 QoQ (bps) FY19 FY18 YoY (bps) Material Expenses (% of Net Sales) 51.0 53.4 (239) 53.7 (274) 54.8 53.0 181 Employee Expenses (% of Net Sales) 7.3 7.0 28 6.5 80 6.4 6.7 (32) A&P Expenses (% of Net Sales) 9.5 8.0 147 8.8 68 9.0 9.3 (32) Other Expenses (% of Net Sales) 14.7 14.6 7 12.2 242 12.4 13.1 (66) EBITDA Margin (%) 17.6 17.0 56 18.8 (116) 17.5 18.0 (52) Tax Rate (%) (48.2) 26.0 na 26.6 na 10.1 26.0 (1,583) APAT Margin (%) 13.3 12.2 110 13.3 (0) 12.7 12.9 (19) Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

Consol. revenues in 4QFY19 grew by 9% (13% in 4QFY18) Overall volumes grew by 8% (2% in 4QFY18). India/International business grew by 7/14% (12/13% in 4QFY18) GM expanded by 239bps YoY. Copra inflation during 4QFY19 was -19% YoY Higher A&P spend resulted in 56bps EBITDA margin expansion (2nd consecutive quarter of expansion, preceded by 6 qtrs of decline)

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MARICO: RESULTS REVIEW 4QFY19

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Quarterly Segmental Year to March (Rs mn) 4QFY19 4QFY18 YoY (%) 3QFY19 QoQ (%) FY19 FY18 YoY (%) Segmental Revenues Domestic 12,400 11,569 7.2 14,490 (14.4) 57,560 49,690 15.8 International 3,690 3,232 14.2 4,120 (10.4) 15,780 13,640 15.7 Total 16,090 14,801 8.7 18,610 (13.5) 73,340 63,330 15.8 Segmental EBIT Domestic 2,400 2,398 0.1 2,850 (15.8) 10,680 10,040 6.4 International 600 340 76.7 790 (24.1) 2,890 2,100 37.6 Total 3,000 2,738 9.6 3,640 (17.6) 13,570 12,140 11.8 Capital Employed Domestic 13,920 13,013 7.0 11,210 24.2 13,920 13,013 7.0 International 6,930 7,475 (7.3) 7,670 (9.6) 6,930 7,475 (7.3) Total 20,850 20,488 1.8 18,880 10.4 20,850 20,488 1.8 Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research EBIT Margin Year to March (Rs mn) 4QFY19 4QFY18 YoY (bps) 3QFY19 QoQ (bps) FY19 FY18 YoY (bps) EBIT Margin (%) Domestic 19.4 20.7 (137) 19.7 (31) 18.6 20.2 (165) International 16.3 10.5 575 19.2 (291) 18.3 15.4 292 Total 18.6 18.5 15 19.6 (91) 18.5 19.2 (67) Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research Business Performance Value Growth (%) 1QFY17 2QFY17 3QFY17 4QFY17 1QFY18 2QFY18 3QFY18 4QFY18 1QFY19 2QFY19 3QFY19 4QFY19 Total 0 (1) (7) 2 (4) 6 15 12 20 20 15 9 India (1) (3) (9) 6 (4) 12 19 12 23 20 13 7 International 6 5 - (8) (1) (8) 1 13 9 18 21 14 Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

Domestic value growth was lower than volume growth owing to higher promotions in PCNO portfolio International business continued to recover with 7% cc growth on a base of 16%

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MARICO: RESULTS REVIEW 4QFY19

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Segment Performance Particulars (%) 1QFY17 2QFY17 3QFY17 4QFY17 1QFY18 2QFY18 3QFY18 4QFY18 1QFY19 2QFY19 3QFY19 4QFY19 FMCG Business (India) Value Growth (1) (3) (9) 6 (4) 12 19 12 23 20 13 7 Volume Growth 8 3 (4) 10 (9) 8 9 1 12 6 5 8 Parachute Coconut Oil Value Growth (12) (19) (12) 11 3 26 41 24 38 32 19 4 Volume Growth 7 (6) (1) 15 (9) 12 15 -5 9 8 9 6 VAHO Value Growth 9 11 (13) 9 (7) 12 7 9 12 12 19 7 Volume Growth 9 11 (12) 10 (8) 12 8 11 15 5 7 1 Saffola (Refined Edible Oil)

Value Growth 11 10 7 3 (8) 1 (4) (3) 9 9 8 15 Volume Growth 11 8 6 6 (9) 3 0 -1 10 5 2 18 Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research Market Share Trend

Particulars (%) 1Q FY17

2Q FY17

3Q FY17

4Q FY17

1Q FY18

2Q FY18

3Q FY18

4Q FY18

1Q FY19

2Q FY19

3Q FY19

4Q FY19

India Coconut Oils 58 58 58 58 58 59 59 59 59 59 59 59 Saffola 63 64 65 66 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 Value added Hair Oils 32 32 33 33 33 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 Livon and Silk & Shine 78 80 81 82 83 83 83 82 81 78 76 75 Hair Creams/Gels 61 62 63 63 62 62 63 63 63 62 61 60 Saffola Oats 27 28 28 27 27 27 28 28 29 29 29 29 Overseas VAHO (Bangladesh) 17 16 17 18 18 20 21 21 21 22 23 23 PCNO (Bangladesh) 82 83 85 86 86 87 87 87 87 87 87 86 X-Men Men’s Shampoo (Vietnam) 38 37 37 37 38 39 40 39 39 39 40 39 Hair Code & Fiancée (Egypt) 56 55 54 54 54 54 53 53 na na na na Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

Parachute performance has been remarkable in the last 18 months Saffola rebounded with strong growth Management has taken 5% price cut in VAHO which disrupted trade More than 90% of the portfolio gained market share

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MARICO: RESULTS REVIEW 4QFY19

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Geographical Performance (Constant Currency Growth) Geographies 1QFY17 2QFY17 3QFY17 4QFY17 1QFY18 2QFY18 3QFY18 4QFY18 1QFY19 2QFY19 3QFY19 4QFY19 Bangladesh (6) (5) - 5 12 11 12 17 9 10 16 12 MENA 6 5 (27) (46) (14) - 15 61 17 19 8 5 South Africa 8 9 4 6 5 1 32 32 7 18 0 3 South East Asia 15 12 6 11 7 (8) (4) (3) 0 14 13 4 Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research Consolidated Revenue Breakup (FY19) International Revenue Breakup (FY19)

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

Bangladesh non-coconut portfolio (26% mix) grew by 24% in cc terms while PCNO grew by 7%

Parachute (Rigid pack)

30

VAHO20Saffola

13

Intl.22

Others16

(%)

Bangladesh46

MENA15

South Africa

8

South East Asia26

Others5

(%)

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MARICO: RESULTS REVIEW 4QFY19

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Urban Growth (YoY) Rural Growth (YoY)

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research Modern Trade Growth (YoY) CSD Growth (YoY)

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

Rural GT and Urban GT growth moderated in 4Q Modern trade is now 11% of domestic turnover, and continues to grow in high double digits CSD (7% of domestic turnover) channel has normalized

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MARICO: RESULTS REVIEW 4QFY19

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Change in Raw Material Prices Change in Product MRP

Note: Sep-17 prices are indexed to 100 Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

Note: Sep-17 prices are indexed to 100 Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

Copra Inflation (YoY %) Gross Margin Change

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

Copra prices are down 19% YoY PCNO pricing is stagnant. Management is passing value in the form of promotions

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Kardi Oil Jalna

Rice Bran Liquid Paraffin

HDPE

Mar-18 Mar-19

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Saffola Total

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1ltr

Mar-18 Mar-19

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MARICO: RESULTS REVIEW 4QFY19

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Assumptions Year to March (Rs mn) FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E Revenue Growth (%) Domestic Business (2.1) 11.5 12.9 10.6 12.5

Parachute Coconut (11.6) 10.0 23.6 6.9 11.0 VAHO 6.8 8.5 9.4 9.8 12.0 Saffola Oil 6.1 12.7 4.2 10.7 11.0

IBD 2.0 2.0 10.0 18.0 20.0 Gross Margin (%) 52.2 47.0 45.5 47.9 49.0 ASP (% of sales) 11.0 9.3 9.0 9.5 9.9 Distribution (% of sales) 4.0 3.8 4.0 4.0 4.0 EBITDA Margin (%) 19.6 18.0 17.5 19.6 20.6 Tax Rate (%) 29.4 25.9 10.2 24.5 24.5 Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research Estimate change

FY19 FY20E FY21E

New Old Chg (%) New Old Chg (%) New Old Chg (%) Sales 73,336 73,636 (0.4) 81,599 82,650 (1.3) 91,730 93,137 (1.5) EBITDA 12,809 13,003 (1.5) 15,966 17,052 (6.4) 18,857 19,897 (5.2) PAT 9,309 9,351 (0.5) 11,806 12,515 (5.7) 14,247 14,839 (4.0) EPS 7.2 7.2 (0.5) 9.1 9.7 (5.7) 11.0 11.5 (4.0) Source: HDFC sec Inst Research

Management guided for 8-10% volume growth for the domestic business in the medium term and double digit cc growth for international business We bake in higher ASP spend in the medium-long term to support new product launches We cut earnings to factor in moderation in sector growth and GM expansion. We tweak our tax rate downwards based on management’s revised guidance.

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MARICO: RESULTS REVIEW 4QFY19

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Peer Set Comparison

Company MCap

(Rs bn)

CMP (Rs) Reco. TP

(Rs)

EPS (Rs) P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) Core RoCE (%)

FY19E FY20E FY21E FY19E FY20E FY21E FY19E FY20E FY21E FY19E FY20E FY21E

HUL 3,763 306 BUY 394 10.2 11.3 12.4 29.9 27.1 24.6 18.8 16.9 15.1 38.1 38.6 40.1 ITC 3,620 1,668 NEU 1,804 28.1 33.4 40.7 59.3 50.8 41.6 40.4 36.9 28.8 68.3 28.3 21.9 Nestle 1,001 10,393 NR 11,225 176.3 210.5 249.4 59.0 49.4 41.7 34.5 29.5 25.3 78.0 100.1 136.7 Britannia 668 377 BUY 464 8.2 10.2 12.2 46.0 36.8 30.9 37.0 30.4 25.6 47.5 55.4 61.6 Dabur 640 2,666 NEU 3,101 48.1 56.6 68.9 55.4 47.1 38.7 36.6 30.3 24.9 39.2 41.4 46.1 Marico 439 340 BUY 386 7.2 9.1 11.0 47.1 37.2 30.8 34.1 27.3 23.2 48.8 48.6 55.5 Colgate 319 1,162 NEU 1,260 27.8 32.2 37.3 41.7 36.1 31.2 25.0 21.6 18.7 68.7 77.9 89.1 Emami 178 379 BUY 534 11.7 14.4 16.9 32.4 26.3 22.4 22.6 18.7 16.1 23.6 30.9 37.8 Jub. Food 172 1,302 BUY 1,758 25.1 31.5 38.2 51.9 41.3 34.1 27.5 21.9 18.0 48.9 64.5 85.2 Source: HDFC sec Inst Research

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MARICO: RESULTS REVIEW 4QFY19

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Income Statement (Rs mn) FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E Net Revenues 59,178 63,222 73,336 81,599 91,730 Growth (%) (1.7) 6.8 16.0 11.3 12.4 Material Expenses 28,259 33,482 39,956 42,542 46,781 Employee Expense 4,042 4,222 4,666 5,190 5,709 ASP Expense 6,510 5,856 6,589 7,759 9,040 Distribution Expense 2,386 2,408 2,933 3,264 3,669 Other Expenses 6,389 5,877 6,382 6,878 7,674 EBITDA 11,593 11,378 12,809 15,966 18,857 EBITDA Growth (%) 10.3 (1.9) 12.6 24.6 18.1 EBITDA Margin (%) 19.6 18.0 17.5 19.6 20.6 Depreciation 903 891 964 1,048 1,116 EBIT 10,690 10,487 11,845 14,918 17,741 Other Income (Inc EO Items) 973 846 1,028 1,218 1,500 Interest 166 162 238 263 124 PBT 11,497 11,171 12,635 15,873 19,118 Total Tax 3,377 2,896 1,284 3,889 4,684 RPAT 134 131 170 179 188 Minority Interest 7,986 8,145 11,182 11,806 14,247 Adjusted PAT 8,026 8,142 9,309 11,806 14,247 APAT Growth (%) 11.5 1.4 14.3 26.8 20.7 Adjusted EPS (Rs) 6.22 6.31 7.21 9.15 11.04 EPS Growth (%) 11.5 1.4 14.3 26.8 20.7

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

Balance Sheet (Rs mn) FY17 FY18 FY19P FY20E FY21E SOURCES OF FUNDS Share Capital - Equity 1,291 1,291 1,291 1,291 1,291 Reserves 21,966 24,138 27,088 31,413 36,682 Total Shareholders Funds 23,257 25,429 28,379 32,704 37,973 Minority Interest 133 125 295 474 661 Long Term Debt 1,225 1,224 1,721 1,521 1,321 Short Term Debt 1,163 1,869 1,769 1,569 1,369 Total Debt 2,388 3,093 3,490 3,090 2,690 Net Deferred Taxes 125 202 (1,760) (1,760) (1,760) Long Term Provisions & Others 225 192 221 254 292 TOTAL SOURCES OF FUNDS 26,128 29,041 30,625 34,761 39,856 APPLICATION OF FUNDS Net Block 10,847 11,103 11,720 11,772 11,655 CWIP 112 268 450 450 450 LT Loans & Advances 194 190 221 245 276 Other Non Current Assets 437 656 656 656 656 Total Non-current Assets 11,590 12,218 13,047 13,124 13,038 Inventories 12,534 15,109 14,110 17,323 19,444 Debtors 2,470 3,406 5,170 4,325 4,770 Other Current Assets 1,196 2,561 3,150 3,505 3,940 Cash & Equivalents 8,442 7,429 9,344 11,996 16,164 Total Current Assets 24,642 28,505 31,774 37,149 44,318 Creditors 6,966 8,217 9,440 10,211 11,587 Other Current Liabilities & Provns 3,138 3,465 4,756 5,300 5,913 Total Current Liabilities 10,104 11,682 14,196 15,511 17,500 Net Current Assets 14,538 16,823 17,578 21,638 26,819 TOTAL APPLICATION OF FUNDS 26,128 29,041 30,625 34,761 39,856

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

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Cash Flow Statement (Rs mn) FY17 FY18 FY19P FY20E FY21E Reported PBT 11,487 11,170 12,635 15,873 19,118 Non-operating & EO Items (53) (329) (1,873) - - Interest Expenses (197) (174) 238 263 124 Depreciation 903 891 964 1,048 1,116 Working Capital Change (2,698) (3,065) 2,107 (2,908) (2,513) Tax Paid (2,964) (2,949) (1,284) (3,889) (4,684) OPERATING CASH FLOW ( a ) 6,477 5,544 12,788 10,388 13,161 Capex (815) (1,231) (1,763) (1,100) (1,000) Free Cash Flow (FCF) 5,663 4,313 11,025 9,288 12,161 Investments (441) 1,047 - - - Non-operating Income 340 353 (1,992) (25) (30) INVESTING CASH FLOW ( b ) (915) 169 (3,755) (1,125) (1,030) Debt Issuance/(Repaid) (670) 692 397 (400) (400) Interest Expenses (172) (162) (238) (263) (124) FCFE 4,720 6,243 9,192 8,600 11,607 Share Capital Issuance 0 0 (0) - (0) Dividend (5,088) (6,357) (6,358) (7,481) (8,977) Others 190 152 29 33 38 FINANCING CASH FLOW ( c ) (5,740) (5,675) (6,170) (8,111) (9,463) NET CASH FLOW (a+b+c) (177) 38 2,863 1,152 2,668 EO Items, Others 634 397 - - - Closing Cash & Equivalents 2,360 2,001 4,864 6,016 8,683

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

Key Ratios FY17 FY18 FY19P FY20E FY21E PROFITABILITY (%) GPM 52.2 47.0 45.5 47.9 49.0 EBITDA Margin 19.6 18.0 17.5 19.6 20.6 EBIT Margin 18.1 16.6 16.2 18.3 19.3 APAT Margin 13.6 12.9 12.7 14.5 15.5 RoE 37.0 33.4 34.6 38.7 40.3 RoIC (or Core RoCE) 49.3 40.6 48.8 48.6 55.5 RoCE 34.4 30.5 31.5 35.5 37.5 EFFICIENCY Tax Rate (%) 29.4 25.9 10.2 24.5 24.5 Fixed Asset Turnover (x) 5.0 4.9 5.1 5.3 5.6 Inventory (days) 77.3 87.2 70.2 77.5 77.4 Debtors (days) 15.2 19.7 25.7 19.3 19.0 Other Current Assets (days) 7.4 14.8 15.7 15.7 15.7 Payables (days) 43.0 47.4 47.0 45.7 46.1 Other Current Liab & Provns (days) 19.4 20.0 23.7 23.7 23.5 Cash Conversion Cycle (days) 37.6 54.2 41.0 43.1 42.4 Net D/E (x) (0.3) (0.2) (0.2) (0.3) (0.4) Interest Coverage (x) 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 PER SHARE DATA (Rs) EPS 6.2 6.3 7.2 9.1 11.0 CEPS 6.9 7.0 8.0 10.0 11.9 Dividend 3.5 4.2 5.0 6.0 6.5 Book Value 18.0 19.7 22.0 25.3 29.4 VALUATION P/E (x) 54.7 53.9 47.1 37.2 30.8 P/BV (x) 18.9 17.3 15.5 13.4 11.6 EV/EBITDA (x) 37.8 38.6 34.1 27.3 23.2 EV/Revenues (x) 7.4 7.0 6.0 5.3 4.8 OCF/EV (%) 1.5 1.3 2.9 2.4 3.0 FCF/EV (%) 1.3 1.3 2.1 2.1 2.8 FCFE/Mkt Cap (%) 1.1 1.4 2.1 2.0 2.6 Dividend Yield (%) 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.8 1.9

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

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RECOMMENDATION HISTORY

Rating Definitions BUY : Where the stock is expected to deliver more than 10% returns over the next 12 month period NEUTRAL : Where the stock is expected to deliver (-)10% to 10% returns over the next 12 month period SELL : Where the stock is expected to deliver less than (-)10% returns over the next 12 month period

Date CMP Reco Target 3-May-18 312 BUY 376 9-Jul-18 340 BUY 388

4-Aug-18 352 BUY 388 10-Oct-18 295 BUY 392 2-Nov-18 320 BUY 380 9-Jan-19 382 BUY 394

10-Apr-19 356 BUY 402 7-May-19 340 BUY 386

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18

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8

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18

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18

Oct

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18

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18

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19

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19

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19

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-19

Marico TP

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Disclosure: We, Naveen Trivedi, MBA & Siddhant Chhabria, PGDBM, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. HSL has no material adverse disciplinary history as on the date of publication of this report. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. Research Analyst or his/her relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. does not have any financial interest in the subject company. Also Research Analyst or his relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. or its Associate may have beneficial ownership of 1% or more in the subject company at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the Research Report. 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HDFC securities Institutional Equities Unit No. 1602, 16th Floor, Tower A, Peninsula Business Park, Senapati Bapat Marg, Lower Parel,Mumbai - 400 013 Board : +91-22-6171 7330 www.hdfcsec.com