KYRGYZSTAN

SEPTEMBER - OCTOBER 2011

Prof. Cholpon Nogoibaeva*Bimonthly article

Highlights

On 30 October, presidential elections took placequietly and peacefully despite numerous forecaststo the contrary. Incumbent prime minister AlmazbekAtambayev, whose main campaign messages stressedthe unity of all Kyrgyzstani citizens irrespective ofethnicity, regional consolidation and willingness tonegotiate with various interest groups, won alandslide victory in the first round, eliminating theneed for a run-off.

The primary economic news of recent monthsconcerns better-than-expected economic growth,endorsed by the country’s statistical and economicagencies and a team of IMF experts.

Internal affairs

The presidential race officially kicked off on 25September. Out of the 83 candidates, only sixteenmade it to final round, most of them being self-nominated. The weeding out of candidates in thepreliminary stage was ascribed to lack of electionfunds and their failure to collect at least 30,000signatures from citizens with voting rights, plus thefact that several candidates dropped out of the raceto benefit other participants.

Unfortunately, the first casualties of the race includedresidents of Kyrgyzstan who were deprived of accessto foreign TV channels. The decision to suspend thebroadcasting of foreign television and radio channelsin Kyrgyzstan was made by cable television operatorsand the KyrgyzTelecom communications companydue to the entry into effect of a new law concerningthe election of the president of the Kyrgyz Republicand members of Jogorku Kenesh. Article 16 of thislaw introduces a proviso to the effect that, during

the pre-election campaigning, foreign television andradio channels may only be broadcast in the territoryof the Kyrgyz Republic on a tape-delay basis. TheMPs who adopted the law said the restriction wasdesigned to prevent the dissemination of informationthat slandered candidates’ dignity and honour, orotherwise cast a shadow on their business reputation.Since owners of television channels did not want tospend money on tape-delay and reprogramming offoreign TV programmes, residents of Kyrgyzstanwere deprived of the opportunity to follow coverageon CNN, BBC, Euronews and RBC (Russian businesschannel), which do not generally devote muchattention to Kyrgyzstan and events in the country.Russian political television channels such as ORTand RTR that monitor events in Kyrgyzstan quiteclosely continued to broadcast in the country.

Interior body officials were placed on high securityalert and eventually confined to barracks. On electionday, police officers were on duty at polling stationsall over the country. These precautionary measureswere sparked by the circulation of rumours ofexpected disturbances and statements by certaincandidates to the effect that rallies, especially in southKyrgyzstan, were likely to take place. Rememberingthe lessons of 2010, the authorities engaged 14,000voluntary civil vigilantes and 10,000 taxi drivers toguarantee that law and order would prevail onelection day. The mood of the majority of the country’scitizenry, who were tired of political instability andthe endless string of rallies supporting this or thatpolitical leader, was a key factor in terms ofmaintaining order.

According to the central electoral commission (CEC)that clarified voters’ lists, a total of 3,034,017 citizenswere eligible to vote. On 30 October, though, a totalof 1,858,596 voters turned out to vote, ie, 61.28% of

*President, Institute for Policy Analysis and Research, Bishkek.

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The Central Asia Observatory (CAO)was established in 2007 by threeinstitutions that are interested in thearea: Casa Asia, CIDOB Foundationand Royal Institute Elcano

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NOVEMBER 2011

the total. The voting process was attended by 725international observers, local NGOs, political partyrepresentatives and candidates’ confidantes.Observers identified untrue voters’ lists as theprimary violation. According to the Coalition forDemocracy and Civil Society, at 65% of pollingstations citizens were unable to find their names onthe voters’ lists. Public organizations registeredtwelve cases of ballot stuffing, voting without voterfinger-markings in the Jalal-Abad province andother smaller breaches of the electoral procedure.However, in general, local observers concluded thatthe violations identified did not have a major impacton the election results. International observers fromthe Commonwealth of Independent States and theShanghai Cooperation Organization reached thesame conclusion. The OSCE mission, though, wasmore critical of the electoral process and whilerecognizing the results of the vote found it necessaryto note significant faults and irregularities. “Despiteflaws with the voters’ lists and tabulation processes,we are cautiously optimistic about the future ofdemocracy in Kyrgyzstan. Significant work is stillneeded at all levels for this country to live up to itscommitments to hold democratic elections,” saidWalburga Habsburg Douglas, the SpecialCoordinator to lead the short-term OSCE observermission and Head of the OSCE ParliamentaryAssembly delegation.

By as early as the evening of 30 October, it becameevident that no run-off would be necessary sinceone of the candidates, Almazbek Atambayev, wasable to secure more than 60% of the votes, thecountry’s electoral legislation stating that 50% plusone vote accumulated in the first round was enoughto win. In the evening of 30 October, without waitingfor the official results, several losing candidatesheaded by Adakhan Madumarov held a pressconference and accused the authorities of applyingadministrative resources and expressed their voteof no confidence to the CEC. The day after theelection, one of the three favourites, Ata Jurt political

party leader Kamchibek Tashiyev, announced thathe did not recognize the results of the election andrallied his people to the central square of the townof Jalal-Abad. On 31 October, in the Suzak districtof the Jalal-Abad province, about 200 Tashiyevsupporters closed the Bishkek-Osh road, a primaryroad artery that connects the south and north ofKyrgyzstan. In the town of Osh, around twenty peopleheld a rally in front of the building of the provincestate administration demanding that the election bere-held. In the town of Kyzyl-Kiya, supporters of yetanother presidential race favourite, the ButunKyrgyzstan political party leader AdakhanMadumarov, arranged a rally and demanded a reviewof the voting results. On 1 November, in Madumarov’shometown, Uzgen, his supporters closed the roadand stopped traffic for more than an hour. Smallerrallies took place in the towns of Osh, Jalal-Abad andBishkek. In the capital, supporters of KamchibekTashiyev gathered in front of the White House (thebuilding that houses parliament and the office of thepresident) and demanded that the election be ruledvoid. Overall, post-election actions and activitieswere localized and lacked the support of wide massesof the populace, public organizations and the media.During his first post-election press conference,winning candidate Almazbek Atambayev stated thathe was willing to negotiate with his opponents, pullingthe carpet from under the most radically mindedpresidential candidates and paving the way fornegotiations in various formats, including theinvolvement of the speaker of parliament.By law, the CEC is supposed to announce the officialresults of the election within 20 days of the vote.Since 127 complaints were lodged with the CECbetween 30 October and 1 November, theCommission decided to announce the election resultsafter all the incoming materials had been studied.Nonetheless, the opinions of the CEC members withrespect to the review of complaints differed and on12 November the official results were announcedwith 62.52% of the votes ascribed to AlmazbekAtambayev and 14.78% to his rival Adakhan

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Madumarov, with the leader of the Ata Jurt politicalparty Kamchibek Tashiyev collecting 14.32% of thevote.

In mid September, the internal affairs ministryannounced the results and findings of theinvestigation of a major contract killing that occurredin March 2009. As the internal affairs ministerZarylbek Rysaliyev stated, the murder of the formerhead of the president’s administration MedetSadyrkulov, the former director of the InternationalInstitute for Strategic Research Sergey Slepchenkoand a driver of an office vehicle Kubat Sulaymanovwas committed at the direct order of a brother ofousted President Kurbanbek Bakiyev. The cynicismof this crime was that both the client and theperpetrators of this murder were governmentemployees of law enforcement bodies with a dutyto protect the citizenry and the state. The internalaffairs ministry charged with triple murder JanyshBakiyev, the former head of the state protectionservice, and the former deputy chairman of theborder protection service, the former head of thepresident’s affairs and other former high-rankingofficers of these bodies. According to investigators,the murder was committed in a particularly cruelmanner. The investigators also decided to questionthe former head of the security council of the KyrgyzRepublic Adakhan Madumarov, who ran for theoffice of the president on 30 October, the formerinternal affairs minister and the former prosecutorgeneral. The solving of this crime was the ministry’sbiggest operation in recent years and uncovered thecountry’s most substantive state problems – the useof the repressive state apparatus for personalpurposes by a narrow circle of individuals and thedefencelessness of not only ordinary citizens bit alsoprominent political leaders and statesmen whenthreatened with murder.

In the run-up to the elections, judge Jorobekov ofthe Jalal-Abad City Court issued a verdict that foundKadyrjan Batyrov, leader of the Uzbek diaspora in

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Kyrgyzstan, guilty on three counts of the criminalcode and sentenced him to life imprisonment withthe confiscation of his property. Speaking to anUzbek media outlet, Batyrov, who is outsideKyrgyzstan, denied his guilt in the organization ofmass disturbances in June 2010 and said he wouldtake advantage of the Swedish government’s offerof a political asylum. In addition to Batyrov, InomjanAbdurasulov was also sentenced to life in prison,while Abdurakhman Abdullayev and KhalimjanKhudayberdiyev were sentenced to 20 years inprison, Javlon Mirzakhodjayev was sentenced to 14years in prison, and Makhamatrasul Abakjanov wassentenced to 3 years of probation. The seven-yearprison sentence received by Akhmat Bakiyev, thebrother of ousted former president KurmanbekBakiyev, was mild in comparison with the harshverdicts meted out to these citizens, who are allethnic Uzbeks.

Foreign and international policy

In September, the Kyrgyz diplomatic corpsunsuccessfully attempted to secure a seat of non-permanent member of the UN Security Council.According to President Otunbayeva, the Kyrgyzstanidiplomatic group in New York had been workingmeticulously on this issue since 1997, and particularlyactively in the last eighteen months. Despite theselong-standing efforts, the non-permanent UNSecurity Council member’s seat was secured byPakistan, which stands to reason in that it is a countryof 187 million people and a nuclear power to boot.

In September, the outgoing President made her firstvisit to the Transit Centre at Manas InternationalAirport where she participated in a ceremonydedicated to the tenth anniversary of 9/11. This visitwas an expression of solidarity with the Americanpeople in the joint struggle against terrorism, anongoing effort to which Kyrgyzstan contributes itsassistance and support.

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The opinions expressed here are those of the authors and do notnecessarily reflect the positions of the Central Asia Observatory (CAO).The institutions that constitute the CAO are not responsible for the useof these contents.

Encouraging news of late October 2011 included theannouncement that the Uzbek side had agreed toresume the operation of the international border-crossing checkpoint “Dustlik” at the Kyrgyz-Uzbekborder that had been closed in 2010. This decisionwas taken at the meeting of heads of the borderprotection services of the two countries that tookplace on 25 October in the town of Andijan(Uzbekistan).

Continuing the topic of the country’s relations withits immediate neighbours, there is also call tomention the address by the speaker of parliamentto the president and prime minister with respect toproblems at the Kyrgyz-Kazakh border. As we know,effective 1 July 2011, Kazakhstan had become amember of the Customs Union (CU) that alsoincludes Russia and Belarus, which led to the severerestriction of procedures for crossing state bordersof Kazakhstan for Kyrgyz citizens. Unfortunately,ever since the CU rules went into effect, not onlyhave the Kyrgyz populace had to spend long hoursat the customs and border-protection checkpointsbut they have also been routinely subject to insultson part of officers of the Kazakh checkpoints.

Economy and business enterprise

During his meeting with prime minister AlmazbekAtambayev, IMF team leader Christian Beddis, whovisited Bishkek in September, congratulated theKyrgyz government on its economic growthindicators. In the year to September, nationaleconomic growth exceeded expectations, with growthforecast to reach at least 6.7% by the end of the year.In addition, inflation is expected to fall in comparisonwith 2010, to 12-13%. Nevertheless, certain types offoodstuffs like meat saw their prices rise by up to52% over a nine month period, significantlyundermining the purchasing power of the populacein whose diet meat plays a crucial and predominantrole.

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The Kyrgyz government drafted and adopted amedium-term development strategy for 2012-2014,providing for a serious reduction of the controllingfunctions of state bodies. Thus, of the 500 types ofcurrently existing licenses, the government plans toeliminate 278 in this first stage of deregulation, dueto be followed up after 2014. Other positive aspectsof the economic program included a clear-cut andlimited set of economic development targets,differentiating this document from its predecessorswhere almost all sectors and industries of theeconomy were identified as primary and majorsectors. The measures designed to achieve theobjectives set out by the government are adequateand realistic. However, during the discussion of thisdocument in parliament, the government failed tosecure parliament’s support despite efforts by theministry for economic regulation which has castdoubt on the possibility of the implementation ofthis programme starting in early 2012.