retail district evolution: an exploration of retail ...€¦ · validation geocoding 24 million...

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Retail District Evolution: An Exploration of Retail Structure and Diversity in Denton,

Texas

Joshua Bova, Murray Rice, Lisa Nagaoka, Chetan TiwariUniversity of North Texas

Department of Geography and the Environment

• Overall in the United States, from 1963 to 2000 (Boyd, 1997 & Jarmin et. al., 2009)

Large Retail Firms more than doubled, Subsequent decline in small, single location retailers

• Small retail businesses have been losing retail market share to large retail firms over the past few decades (Jarmin et. al., 2009)

“More than 60% of consumer dollars are spent at chain stores” (Basker, Klimek, & Van, 2012)

• Retail format evolution- Central Business Districts

- Strip Centers

- Malls

- Power Retail

• Imbalance in national vs. local scale studies

Background

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Research Questions

1. How did retail business diversity (richness & evenness) change in the City of Denton’s retail districts between 1997 – 2010?

Richness = # of Species (or NAICS 4 Classifications)

Evenness = distribution of # of organisms in each species (or NAICs 4 Classifications)

2. What change occurred among chain and single location retailers in the City of Denton’s retail districts between 1997 – 2010?

Total Businesses?

Sales Volumes?

Total Employees?

Total Business Turnover Using NAICS 4 Digit Classifications?

W UNIVERSITY DR

E UNIVERSITY DR

NI 35 E

SLOOP

288

N L

OO

P 2

88

W UNIVERSITY DRE UNIVERSITY DR

NI 35

E

SI 35

E

I 35 N LOOP

288

I 35 W

City of Denton Retail Districts

Study Area

Central Business District

Denton Crossing

Golden Triangle Mall

University Drive

Major Roads

County Roads

City Boundary

m

0 0.25 0.5 0.75 10.125

Miles

Parcels by Year Built

1872 - 1910

1911 - 1930

1931 - 1950

1951 - 1970

1971 - 1990

1991 - 2015

Vacant Lot

Major Roads

County Roads

W UNIVERSITY DR

E UNIVERSITY DR

NI 35

E

N L

OO

P 2

88

Central Business District1880-1940's

Golden Triangle Mall1970-1980's

Denton Crossing2000's

University Drive1950-1960's

Parcels by Year Built

1872 - 1910

1911 - 1930

1931 - 1950

1951 - 1970

1971 - 1990

1991 - 2015

Vacant Lot

Major Roads

County Roads

m

0 0.25 0.5 0.75 10.125

Miles

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Study Area


Golden Triangle

Mall

Denton Crossing

University Drive

Data

Updated daily records:>49 million U.S. businesses>298 million U.S. consumers>20 years of historical business and residential data

Data Source: Infogroup Reference USA

“Most comprehensive research database available with historical geocoded records—down to the parcel level.”

Reference USA Data Collection Methodology

6,000

Sources

250 New Business Resources

County Courthouses Public Record NoticesUtility Connections Secretaries of State

Web ResearchNews Monitoring

User Generated Content

Validation Geocoding24 Million calls a year

>350 Research Analysts

Business

Database

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Variable Variable Definition/Description Code/ DecodeCompany Name Of Business

Address Line 1 Historical Address

City Historical Address City

State Historical Address State

Zip Code Historical Address Zip Code

Archive Version Year Year Of Data

Business Status Code Indicates If Record Is a Headquarters, Subsidiary, Or Branch location1=Headquarter, 2=Branch, 3=Subsidiary,

9=Single Location

Primary NAICS2 Code Primary NAICS2 Code

Primary NAICS2 Description The Description For The NAICS2 Code









Sales Volume Sales Volume at that location (000’s)

Employee Size Number of Employees at that Location (Could be modeled)

LatitudeParcel Level Assigned Via Point Geo Coding. Provided In A Formatted Value, With

Decimals Or A Negative Sign.

LongitudeParcel Level Assigned Via Point Geo Coding. Provided In Its Formatted Value, With

Decimals Or A Negative Sign.

Match Code Parcel Level Match Code Of The Business Location. 0=Site Level, 2=Zip+2 Centroid, 4=Zip+4 Centroid, P=Parcel, X=Zip Centroid, **

=Unknown

Data

AnalysisCleansingMappingGeocodingRaw Data

Data Processing for Research

W UNIVERSITY DR

E UNIVERSITY DR

NI 35 E

SLOOP

288

N L

OO

P 2

88


NI 35

E

SI 35

E

I 35 N LOOP

288

I 35 W

76201

76205

76209

76210

76210

76208

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Year Original Cleaned Retail Districts

1997 796 703 344

1998 792 705 330

1999 831 740 336

2000 819 730 330

2001 834 736 350

2002 910 786 372

2003 910 807 369

2004 912 791 377

2005 984 855 409

2006 959 833 402

2007 923 805 391

2008 997 881 435

2009 1,004 902 437

2010 982 886 425

Total 12,653 11,160 5,307

Data Processing

W UNIVERSITY DR

E UNIVERSITY DR

NI 35 E

SLOOP

288

N L

OO

P 2

88


NI 35

E

SI 35

E

I 35 N LOOP

288

I 35 W

76201

76205

76209

76210

76210

76208


Denton Crossing


University Drive

Zip Codes

Major Roads

County Roads

City Boundary

2Miles

Methods

• Simpson’s Diversity Index (D)

- Ecological Biodiversity Measure

- Accounts for # of species & abundance of each species

- Richness: number of different kinds of species present

𝐷 =∑𝑛 𝑛−1

𝑁 𝑁−1n = total # of organisms of a particular species

N = total # of organisms of all species

• Chains vs. Single Locations- Pivot Table Matrix

• Simpson’s Equability Index (ED)-Evenness: compares similarity of the population size to each of the species present

ED =𝑫

𝑫𝑴𝑨𝑿

=

𝟏

∑𝒏 𝒏−𝟏

𝑵 𝑵−𝟏∗𝟏

𝑺ED = Equability (evenness)

D = Simpson’s Diversity Index𝑫𝑴𝑨𝑿 = S = total # of species (NAICS 4) in the community (richness)

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North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) Hierarchy Tree for 44-45 & 72

44-45 Retail Trade

441 Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers

4411 Automobile Dealers 441110 New Car Dealers

441120 Used Car Dealers

4412 Other Motor Vehicle Dealers 441210 Recreational Vehicle Dealers

441222 Boat Dealers

441228 Motorcycle, ATV, and All Other Motor Vehicle Dealers

4413 Automotive Parts, Accessories, and Tire Stores 441310 Automotive Parts and Accessories Stores

441320 Tire Dealers

442 Furniture and Home Furnishings Stores 4421 Furniture Stores 442110 Furniture Stores

4422 Home Furnishings Stores 442210 Floor Covering Stores

442291 Window Treatment Stores

442299 All Other Home Furnishings Stores

443 Electronics and Appliance Stores 4431 Electronics and Appliance Stores 443141 Household Appliance Stores

443142 Electronics Stores

4441 Building Material and Supplies Dealers 444 Building Material and Garden Equipment and Supplies Dealers

444110 Home Centers

444120 Paint and Wallpaper Stores

444130 Hardware Stores

444190 Other Building Material Dealers

4442 Lawn and Garden Equipment and Supplies Stores 444210 Outdoor Power Equipment Stores

444220 Nursery, Garden Center, and Farm Supply Stores

445 Food and Beverage Stores

4451 Grocery Stores 445110 Supermarkets and Other Grocery (except Convenience) Stores

445120 Convenience Stores

4452 Specialty Food Stores

445210 Meat Markets

445220 Fish and Seafood Markets

445230 Fruit and Vegetable Markets

445291 Baked Goods Stores

445292 Confectionery and Nut Stores

445299 All Other Specialty Food Stores

4453 Beer, Wine, and Liquor Stores 445310 Beer, Wine, and Liquor Stores

4461 Health and Personal Care Stores

446110 Pharmacies and Drug Stores

446120 Cosmetics, Beauty Supplies, and Perfume Stores

446130 Optical Goods Stores

446191 Food (Health) Supplement Stores

446199 All Other Health and Personal Care Stores

4471 Gasoline Stations 447110 Gasoline Stations with Convenience Stores

447190 Other Gasoline Stations

448 Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores

4481 Clothing Stores

448110 Men's Clothing Stores

448120 Women's Clothing Stores

448130 Children's and Infants' Clothing Stores

448140 Family Clothing Stores

448150 Clothing Accessories Stores

448190 Other Clothing Stores

4482 Shoe Stores 448210 Shoe Stores

4483 Jewelry, Luggage, and Leather Goods Stores 448310 Jewelry Stores

448320 Luggage and Leather Goods Stores

451 Sporting Goods, Hobby, Musical Instrument, and Book Stores 4511 Sporting Goods, Hobby, and Musical Instrument Stores

451110 Sporting Goods Stores

451120 Hobby, Toy, and Game Stores

451130 Sewing, Needlework, and Piece Goods Stores

451140 Musical Instrument and Supplies Stores

4512 Book Stores and News Dealers 451211 Book Stores

451212 News Dealers and Newsstands

452 General Merchandise Stores 4521 Department Stores 452111 Department Stores

4529 Other General Merchandise Stores452910 Warehouse Clubs and Supercenters

452990 All Other General Merchandise Stores

453 Miscellaneous Store Retailers

4531 Florists 453110 Florists

4532 Office Supplies, Stationery, and Gift Stores 453210 Office Supplies and Stationery Stores

453220 Gift, Novelty, and Souvenir Stores

4533 Used Merchandise Stores 453310 Used Merchandise Stores

4539 Other Miscellaneous Store Retailers

453910 Pet and Pet Supplies Stores

453920 Art Dealers

453930 Manufactured (Mobile) Home Dealers

453991 Tobacco Stores

453998 All Other Miscellaneous Store Retailers (except Tobacco Stores)

454 Nonstore Retailers 4541 Electronic Shopping and Mail-Order Houses

454110 Electronic Shopping and Mail-Order Houses

4542 Vending Machine Operators 454210 Vending Machine Operators

4543 Direct Selling Establishments 454310 Fuel Dealers

454390 Other Direct Selling Establishments

72 Accommodation and Food Services

721 Accommodation 7211 Traveler Accommodation

721110 Hotels (except Casino Hotels) and Motels

721120 Casino Hotels

721191 Bed-and-Breakfast Inns

721199 All Other Traveler Accommodation

722 Food Services and Drinking Places

7212 RV (Recreational Vehicle) Parks and Recreational Camps721211 RV (Recreational Vehicle) Parks and Campgrounds

721214 Recreational and Vacation Camps (except Campgrounds)

7213 Rooming and Boarding Houses, Dormitories, and Workers' Camps721310 Rooming and Boarding Houses, Dormitories, and Workers' Camps

7223 Special Food Services

722310 Food Service Contractors

722320 Caterers

722330 Mobile Food Services

7224 Drinking Places (Alcoholic Beverages)722410 Drinking Places (Alcoholic Beverages)

7225 Restaurants and Other Eating Places722511 Full-Service Restaurants

722513 Limited-Service Restaurants

722514 Cafeterias, Grill Buffets, and Buffets

722515 Snack and Nonalcoholic Beverage Bars

Measuring Retail DiversityNAICS 4 Digit Categories

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Simpson’s Diversity Index (D)

Year Central Business District Denton Crossing University Drive Golden Triangle Mall

1997 0.061 0.100 0.120 0.091

1998 0.065 0.000 0.144 0.087

1999 0.071 0.000 0.143 0.098

2000 0.068 0.000 0.156 0.100

2001 0.059 0.000 0.111 0.101

2002 0.066 0.061 0.106 0.101

2003 0.068 0.033 0.130 0.117

2004 0.065 0.090 0.148 0.112

2005 0.062 0.118 0.154 0.110

2006 0.059 0.093 0.151 0.114

2007 0.058 0.097 0.146 0.126

2008 0.061 0.114 0.150 0.105

2009 0.072 0.131 0.166 0.112

2010 0.071 0.137 0.159 0.110

The index measures the probability that two individualsrandomly selected from a sample will belong to the same NAICS 4. With this index, 0 represents infinite

diversity and 1, no diversity. The bigger the value of D, the lower the diversity.

• Simpson’s Diversity Index equation :

(𝐷) =∑𝑛 𝑛 − 1

𝑁 𝑁 − 1

• Diversity decreases in all retail districts from 1997 to 2010

• Diversity decreases the most in Denton Crossing (Δ =.037) & University Drive (Δ = .039)

• Least diversity Δ in the CBD (Δ = .009)

Year Central Business District Denton Crossing University Drive Golden Triangle Mall

1997 0.710 * 0.364 0.522

1998 0.736 * 0.302 0.575

1999 0.615 * 0.305 0.510

2000 0.670 * 0.279 0.501

2001 0.707 * 0.390 0.431

2002 0.610 * 0.409 0.474

2003 0.563 * 0.286 0.371

2004 0.670 0.739 0.260 0.387

2005 0.602 0.606 0.260 0.397

2006 0.680 0.567 0.275 0.416

2007 0.658 0.544 0.286 0.396

2008 0.631 0.464 0.257 0.453

2009 0.581 0.383 0.222 0.424

2010 0.591 0.366 0.252 0.433

Equitability (ED) can be calculated by taking Simpson's index (D) and expressing it as a proportion of the maximum value D could assume if individuals in the community were completely evenly distributed (Dmax,

which equals S-- as in a case where there was one individual per species). Equitability takes a value between 0 and 1, with 1 being complete evenness.

Simpson’s Equability Index (D)

• S = Total # of species (NAICS 4 Digit), in

the equation:

ED =𝑫

𝑫𝑴𝑨𝑿

=

𝟏∑𝒏 𝒏 − 𝟏

𝑵 𝑵− 𝟏∗𝟏

𝑺

• Evenness decreases in all retail districts from 1997 to 2010

• Evenness decreases the most in Denton Crossing (Δ = -.373) & the CBD (Δ = -.119)

• Least Δ in evenness = University Drive (Δ = -.089), However, University Drive has the least evenness overall

* Sample size is not large enough

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Evenness Histograms

By NAICS 4 Digit Categories & Business Counts

Central Business District Denton Crossing

1997

2010

University Drive

1997 1997

2010 2010


1997

2010

Chains & Single Location Retail BusinessesTotal Businesses, Sales Volumes,& Employee Size Change

Retail Business Turnover by NAICS 4 Digit Categories

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Number of Chain & Single Location Retail Businesses by Retail District

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010


Chains Single Locations

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

University Drive


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010



0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Denton Crossing


Average Annual Sales Volumes by Retail District

$0

$2,000,000

$4,000,000

$6,000,000

$8,000,000

$10,000,000

$12,000,000

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Central Business District Denton Crossing Golden Triangle Mall University Drive

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Total Employees by Retail District

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Central Business District Denton Crossing Golden Triangle University Drive

Chain & Single Location Change Using NAICS 4 1997 to 2010

Single Locations ChainsNAICS 4

Code NAICS 4 DescriptionCentral Business

DistrictDenton Crossing University Drive



Denton Crossing University DriveGolden Triangle

Mall

4533 Used Merchandise Stores -10 0 0 0

4431 Electronics and Appliance Stores -9 1 -1 0 0 2 -4 -3

4539 Other Miscellaneous Store Retailers -4 1 1 -1 1 -1

4413Automotive Parts, Accessories, and Tire

Stores -2 0 3 1 1 2 0 0

4442Lawn and Garden Equipment and

Supplies Stores -2 1 1 0

4461 Health and Personal Care Stores -2 2 5 4 -1 6 0 -1

4411 Automobile Dealers -2 -1 -4 0 0

4421 Furniture Stores -1 0 -2 -1 0 5 0 1

4451 Grocery Stores 1 -2 3 -3 -1

4481 Clothing Stores 1 1 -5 1 9 -3 1

4532Office Supplies, Stationery, and Gift

Stores 3 0 -1 1 0 1 -1 0

7225 Restaurants and Other Eating Places 15 9 4 5 -4 16 2 3

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Conclusion

• Retail Diversity• Overall, retail diversity has decreased in all retail districts

• Still relatively high

• Richness has remained stable

• Retail Evenness • Also decreased in all retail districts

• Largest decreases in Denton Crossing (Δ = -.373) & the CBD (Δ = -.119)• More full service restaurants, less other retail

• Chains vs. Single Locations• Retail structure stability• University Drive & CBD disruption• Concurrent growth in Denton Crossing• Single locations account for majority of establishments

• But only a fraction of overall sales volumes & employees

• Future Research?• Ecommerce disruption

• Other case studies

Questions or Recommendations?

Email: [email protected]

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ReferencesBasker, E., Klimek, S., & Van, P. H. (2012). Supersize It: The Growth of Retail Chains and the Rise of the “Big-Box” Store. Journal of Economics & Management

Strategy, 21(3), 541-582.

Boyd, D. W. (1997). From “Mom and Pop” to Wal-Mart: The Impact of the Consumer Goods Pricing Act of 1975 on the Retail Sector in the United States.

Journal of Economic Issues, 31(1), 223-232.

City of Denton. (1999). The Denton Plan 1999 - 2020 Comprehensive Plan of the City of Denton. Denton, TX: City of Denton.

— (1999). City of Denton Fry Street Small Area Plan. City of Denton.

— (2009). City of Denton Site Design Criteria Manual. City of Denton.

— (2015). Denton Plan 2030. Denton, TX: City of Denton.

— (2018). Denton Development Code, Subchapter 7. Denton, TX: City of Denton

Devlin, S. (2017). ReferenceUSA. Retrieved February 22, 2017, from https://resource.referenceusa.com/

Hahn, B. (2000). Power centres: A new retail format in the United States of America. Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, 7(4), 223-231.

Hernandez, T., Lea, T., Spagnolo, A., & Maze, A. (2004). Shopping Centers, Power Retailing and Evolving Retail Environments: A Comparison of the Retail

Markets of Dallas-Fort Worth and Toronto. Journal of Shopping Center Research, 11(1-2), 55-111.

Infogroup. (2017). Data. Retrieved February 22, 2017, from http://www.infogroup.com/data

Jarmin, R.S., Klimek, S.D., & Miranda, J. (2009). The role of retail chains: national, regional and industry results. In Producer Dynamics: New Evidence from

Micro Data (pp. 237-262). Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press.

Magurran, A. E. (2004). Measuring biological diversity. Malden (Massachusetts): Blackwell Pub.

U.S. Census Bureau. (2012). 2012 NAICS definitions. Retrieved from https://www.census.gov/cgi-bin/sssd/naics/naicsrch?chart=2012

Weir, J., & Levinson, D. (2008). Denton Crossing West and East. Retrieved February 27, 2017, from

http://www.theretailconnection.net/uploaded/property/20120528122603818.pdf

Number of Chain & Single Location Retail Businesses by Retail District

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Single Locations


Golden Triangle Mall University Drive

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Chains



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Average Annual Sales Volumes by Retail District

Chains vs. Single Locations

-$1,000,000

$1,000,000

$3,000,000

$5,000,000

$7,000,000

$9,000,000

$11,000,000

$13,000,000

$15,000,000

$17,000,000

$19,000,000

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Chains



$0

$500,000

$1,000,000

$1,500,000

$2,000,000

$2,500,000

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Single Locations



Total Employees by Retail District

Chains vs. Single Locations

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Chains



0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Single Locations



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0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0.12

0.14

0.16

0.18

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

CBD DC University GTM

Simpson’s Diversity Index (D)

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

CBD DC University GTM

Simpson’s Equability Index (D)

retail district evolution: an exploration of retail ...€¦ · validation geocoding 24 million...

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