retailconsolidation
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Retail ConsolidationThe Continuing Saga!
• Cause / Effect- What’s driving retail consolidation?
• The Retail Landscape ( Next 5 Yrs.)- Survival Of The Coolest?
• Life Expectancy Of Labels Vs. Brands- Will the consumer figure this out?
• Small / Mid Sized Apparel Manufacturers- Where do they fit?
• “The Vanishing Middle”- Goodbye Generic!
• “Generational Evolution of Apparel”- Youth Meets Boomer!
Retail Consolidation
• The Taste Level Of America - “Forever Changed”
- Thank You…Mickey Drexler and the Gap
• Once Upon A Time…- Higher price points equated to better product
- Lower price points meant poor quality / “no taste”
• Now Its: “Good, Better, Best” Vs. “Cheap or Expensive”
- The Consumer doesn’t want cheap
- They want “Good, Better, Best” at a discount
• Added Value Isn’t A Bonus…- It is a requirement!
Cause / Effect - What’s driving retail consolidation?
• Apparel is declining in importance to the consumer
• Lifestyle is driving apparel decisions
• Apparel must adapt and provide relevance
• Provide what they want…Not what they need
• “Good taste is expected” …”Good deal is desired”
What’s Different?
• “Live Young, Work Young, Look Old- The Aging Boomer will not go quietly…Dressing Younger is Cool
• The 40 yr old of 1981vs.
The 40 yr old of 2006- Single Biggest change…
- Father / Son and Mother / Daughter all dress alike
• Price is the ultimate vehicle of change- Price / Value equation much more important vs. past
• The “25-35 Year Old” Consumer Has A Different Perspective- Based on exposure to all outside influences of Media
- Grew up with different “Tools” (Instant Access)
The Changing Consumer
• Effect of “Younger vs. Older”- Clash of lifestyle apparel choices
• “Everyone looks good in a “Suit and Tie”- Casualization of America = Men with no clue
• “No one buys an outfit to go out on Saturday Night”- Your Lifestyle dictates what you wear
• “Households with children under 18 dramatically alter
what parents wear”- Inherent awareness of what’s cool / what’s not
The “Generational” Shiftof Apparel For Consumers
• Technology- “Warp Speed” visibility to brand awareness - Good & Bad
• Old Adage: Better Product = Better Taste Level = Better Distribution
- Throw it out the window
- New School: Cool product at lower price points in broader distributional channels
• Apparel Spending Grew In 2005 (+4% [2005] NPD)
- Mens Stronger Than Womens
- Lifestyle Segment Driven
- Price Factor: Important more than ever
• New Consumer Profile Emerging- Non “Brand / Channel” specific
- Buy what they want / where they want
Changes In The Game Today
• The Dept. Store Format Stabilizes And Prospers- Federated / Macy’s streamlines and further separates from
mid/tier and discount to create “Reason To Exist”
• Brand Direct Retail Over-Expansion “Rush To Direct Retail”
- Survival Of The Fittest = Weeding Out
- “One Dimensional Brand Retail” Platform Fails
• Outlet Store Malls Re-Focus- Good, Better, Best Brands = Better Product Offering
- Less “Outlet Private Label”
• “Neighborhood” Niche Specialty Stores Emerge- Non Mall Based “Cool” Stores: “Lifestyle Center”
- Destination Locations - I.E. Abbot Kinney
The Retail Landscape - Next Five Years
• “Uncool” Stores Cease To Exist- Mass / Midtier Customer Once Identifiable > Becomes Invisible
- Everyone Wears Cool Product
• Big Box Players “Modernize” Assortments- Generic Product = Gone
- Lifestyle Focus
- Picture Multiple “Target” Formats
• “Transformational” Brands Impact Retail Formats- Think J.C. Penney / Sephora
• The Mall Reinvents Itself- “Plastic,” “Food Court,” “Non-Traffic Driven” Retail Space
- Picture “Farmers Market Of Apparel” (Mixed Category / Real Life Experience )
Cool Stores
• Costco
• Home Depot
• Victoria’s Secret
• Target
• Whole Foods
• American Eagle
• Best Buy
• Pac Sun
• Abercrombie & Fitch
• Lifestyle Focused
• Clear Point Of View
• Category Dominant
• Modern / Relevant Business Model
• “Speed To Market”
“Common Thread”
• Federated / Macy’s : Big Upside
- Macy’s West: Prototype Future Better Department Store
• J.C. Penney: Big Opportunity
- “Transformational Brands” (Sephora) Drive The Business
• K-Mart: Big Question
- Create Reason To Exist
• Walmart: Big Challenge
- Modernize Apparel Assortment And Add Brands
“Retailers In Transition”
• “Versions”: according to Webster
- A name given to a product or service
- A type of product manufactured by a company under a particular name
- The name or trademark of a fashion company
Definition Of Brand vs. Label
My Version
• Labels Have Recognition • Brands Have Loyalty
• Labels Get Your Attention • Brands Get Your Heart
• Labels Serve A Purpose • Brands Serve A Consumer
• Labels Offer Value • Brands Offer Value - Added
• Labels Trust Consumers • Brands Consumers Trust
• Labels Are For Now • Brands Are Forever
• 3 Types of “Labels”
- Direct Retail Private Label
- Generic Vendor Label
- Niche Specific / Category Expert Label
• Direct Retail Private Label
- Continued Evolution Of Superior Price Value Equation
- Future Upside in Better Design And Quality Execution / Investment
- Specialty Retail Dominates Execution Vs. Department. Store / Midtier
Life Expectancy OfLabels Vs. Brands
• “Generic Vendor” Label
- “Vulnerable To Extinction”
- Price Driven
- “No Reason To Exist”
• “Niche Specific / Category Expert” Label
- Future Is Bright
- Creating Expertise In Category
- Flexible Sourcing / Design Capabilities
• 3 Types Of Brands• Vertical Retailer• Traditional Manufacturer• Licensing
• Vertical Retailer• 100% in Control• Direct Access to consumer• Best price / value equation• Fastest “Trend to Market Provider”• Sales Comps: “True Barometer of Success”
• Traditional Manufacturer• Reliance on retail distribution
• “Middleman to Consumer
• “Limited” control
- Pricing, Point of Sale, Positioning
• “Wholesale Sales” growth
(vs. Retail Sales Success )
• Licensing• “3rd Party” Control
- Licensor to licensee to retailer
• Management of diverse licensee cultures: “One Voice”• “Direct correlation of success
- Degree of brand promise kept
• “Brand Extension” - revenue growth• “Difficult” control
- Wide variations: “Best to None”
• 7 Stages Of Development 1) “Emerging”
2) “Cool”
3) “Aspirational”
4) “Accessible”
5) “Mainstream”
6) “Declining”
7) “Gone”
• Direct correlation to sales volume & stage of development
• The hotter the brand gets - The younger the consumer that embraces it.
• Define brand strategy before stage 4 ( “Accessible” )
Life Of A Brand
• Adults “Dress Younger” - “Less Serious”- Subtract 10 years of age from your dated consumer profile
• “Being Cool” vs. “Dressing Cool” 2 Different Things
- Cool Products exist at all distribution points vs. 5 years ago
• Remaining “Separation Factor” of cool: “Brands”- “Tribe Differentiator”
- “Lifestyle Statement”
• Price / Value Equation: New Dynamic- More choices to spend money on
- Apparel facing new competition
Brands Today
• “The Modern History Of Apparel”- 3 Parts:
• Luxury / Premium
• Generic / Mainstream
• Mass / Commodity
• “Educated Consumers Changing The Game”- Better Fashion, Better Quality, Cheaper Price
- “Polarization” Of Retail Landscape
- Direct Brand Retail Replacing The Middle
- Generic Product Rapidly Vacating Middle Tier
- Mass Getting “More Sophisticated” On A Daily Basis
The Vanishing Middle
• The Term “Moderate Department Store Is An Oxymoron
- Squeezed From Both Ends(Luxury / Premium and Big Box / Mass)
• Growing Trend:
- Luxury / Premium Fashion Mass / Commodity Prices
• Generic Product:
- Forces Consumer to search for lowest common denominator price point
• “State Of The Union”
- Highly Competitive, Price Driven, Lack Of Predictable Future / Long Term Status
- Forced To Compete With Large Public Apparel Firms ( Chargebacks, Allowances, Discounts )
- Increasing Margin Pressure
- 100% Of Existence Held In the“Hands Of Retail Distribution Or Wholesale Brand”
The Lifecycle Of The Small /
Midsize Apparel Company
• Qualifications1) Strategic Plan2) Specific goals / objectives3) Proper due diligence4) “Realistic diagnosis of the patient”5) Time frame - you can live with6) Financial support to execute
• Tools1) Sub-Branding2) New product launches3) Multi-channel distribution strategy4) Category extensions5) Trade Advertising6) “Exclusive” brand extensions
“Requirement For Survival”