rethinking capital flows for emerging east asia

7/31/2019 Rethinking Capital Flows for Emerging East Asia

1/31

JFBH ]crkhom Pjpgr Tgrhgt

Rgvlhokhom Djphvja Iac}t icrGegrmhom Gjtv Jthj

Tvgplgo Mrgoyhaag

Oc/ 492Nwog 20:2

Jthjo Fgygacpegov Bjok Hotvhvwvg


2/31

Vlg ]crkhom Pjpgr tgrhgt ht j dcovhowjvhco ci vlg icregrax ojegf Fhtdwtthco Pjpgr tgrhgt; vlgowebgrhom ci vlg pjpgrt dcovhowgf }hvlcwv hovgrrwpvhco cr dljomg/ JFBHt }crkhom pjpgrtrgiagdv hohvhja hfgjt co j vcphd jof jrg pctvgf coahog icr fhtdwtthco/ JFBH godcwrjmgt rgjfgrt vcpctv vlghr dceegovt co vlg ejho pjmg icr gjdl }crkhom pjpgr ,mhygo ho vlg dhvjvhco bgac}(/

Tceg }crkhom pjpgrt ejx fgygacp hovc cvlgr icret ci pwbahdjvhco/

Twmmgtvgf dhvjvhco>

Mrgoyhaag! T/ 20:2/ Rgvlhokhom Djphvja Iac}t icr Gegrmhom Gjtv Jthj/ JFBH ]crkhom Pjpgr 492/Vckxc> Jthjo Fgygacpegov Bjok Hotvhvwvg/ Jyjhajbag> lvvp>##}}}/jfbh/crm#}crkhom%pjpgr#20:2#09#22#708 tmrgoyhaag@ac}xhotvhvwvg/crm

Tvgplgo Mrgoyhaag ht j yhthvhom igaac} jv vlg Ac}x Hotvhvwvg icr Hovgrojvhcoja Pcahdx! Txfogx!Jwtvrjahj/

Jo gjrahgr ygrthco ci vlht pjpgr }jt prgtgovgf jv vlg Jthjo Fgygacpegov Bjok HotvhvwvgJoowja Dcoigrgodg co Rgicre ci vlg Hovgrojvhcoja Ecogvjrx Txtvge! lgaf ho Vckxc! 2Fgdgebgr 20::/

Vlg yhg}t g|prgttgf ho vlht pjpgr jrg vlg yhg}t ci vlg jwvlcr jof fc ocv ogdgttjrhaxrgiagdv vlg yhg}t cr pcahdhgt ci JFBH! vlg JFB! hvt Bcjrf ci Fhrgdvcrt! cr vlg mcygroegovtvlgx rgprgtgov/ JFBH fcgt ocv mwjrjovgg vlg jddwrjdx ci vlg fjvj hodawfgf ho vlht pjpgrjof jddgpvt oc rgtpcothbhahvx icr jox dcotgzwgodgt ci vlghr wtg/ Vgrehocacmx wtgf ejxocv ogdgttjrhax bg dcothtvgov }hvl JFB ciihdhja vgret/

Jthjo Fgygacpegov Bjok HotvhvwvgKjtwehmjtgkh Bwhafhom Vga> + + }}}/jfbh/crmG%ejha> hoic@jfbh/crm

20:2 Jthjo Fgygacpegov Bjok Hotvhvwvg
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]


3/31

JFBH ]crkhom Pjpgr 492 Mrgoyhaag

Jbtvrjdv

Thodg vlg :8 Ho vlht rgpcrv! & rgigrt vc WT fcaajrt/


4/31


Dcovgovt

:/ Hovrcfwdvhco ///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////// 42/

Vlg Dljomhom Ehoftgv Vc}jrf Icrghmo Djphvja Iac}t

//////////////////////////////////////////////////// 4

4/ Dwrrgov Vlhokhom co Djphvja Iac}t ////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////// 96/ G|pajhohom Djphvja Iac}t ///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////// =

6/: Fgygacpgf Dcwovrhgt ////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////// =6/2 Gegrmhom Dcwovrhgt //////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////// 8

7/ Vlg Djtg icr Irgg Djphvja Iac}t ///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////: g|dljomg rjvg tvjbhahvx; jof ejhovjhohom tvrcomhovgrojvhcoja dcepgvhvhygogtt/

Vlg djphvja cwviac}t ci vlg drhtht pgrhcf jof vlg heegfhjvg jivgrejvl mjyg vlg drhtht dcwovrhgtoc dlchdg bwv vc rwo twbtvjovhja dwrrgov jddcwov twrpawtgt/ ]lgo ogv djphvja hoiac}t rgtwegfjrcwof 2002! vlgtg dcwovrhgt tj} oc rgjtco vc rgtgv pcahdx cr agv g|dljomg rjvgt rhtg vcc ewdl/Vlg vxphdja ejdrc dcoihmwrjvhco jivgr vlg drhtht }jt tac}gr mrc}vl! agtt hoygtvegov! dwrrgovjddcwov twrpawtgt rgpajdhom fgihdhvt ,Ihmwrg :(! jof j twddgttiwa ejojmgegov ci vlg g|dljomgrjvgt vc kggp g|pcrvt dcepgvhvhyg ,Ihmwrg 2(! hoycayhom j ajrmg bwhaf%wp ho icrghmo g|dljomgrgtgrygt/

Ihmwrg :> Gegrmhom Jthj! Tjyhomt jof Hoygtvegov

,' ci MFP(

Ocvg> G|dawfgt vlg Pgcpagt Rgpwbahd ci Dlhoj jof Hofhj/ MFP 5 mrctt fcegtvhd prcfwdv/

Tcwrdg> HEI ,20:0f(/


7/31


7

Ihmwrg 2> Rgja Giigdvhyg G|dljomg Rjvgt

,2000200=5:00(

Ocvg> PRD 5 Pgcpagt Rgpwbahd ci Dlhoj/

Tcwrdg> Ihajrfc! Ej! jof Ehljangk ,20::(/


8/31


9

Vlht pcahdx jpprcjdl rgejhogf yhjbag icr vlg fgdjfg cr tc icaac}hom vlg Jthjo drhtht ,Kj}jh jofAjebgrvg 20:0(/ Bwv vlht tvrjvgmx ht oc} rwoohom cwv ci rcce icr ejogwygr icr ejox ci vlg GjtvJthj dcwovrhgt/2 Vlg rgpajdgegov tvrjvgmx oc} bghom g|pacrgf ht ejojmhom vlg djphvja iac}t!rjvlgr vljo vlg dcotgzwgovhja g|dljomg rjvg prgttwrgt/ Wovha rgdgovax! vlg rgdghygf }htfce ljtbggo vljv ejojmgegov }cwaf bg iwvhag/

4

4/ DWRRGOV VLHOKHOM CO DJPHVJA IAC]T

Vlg dwrrgov vlhokhom co ejojmgegov ci djphvja iac}t tgget vc bg jv jo hoiagdvhco pchov/ Yhg}tljyg ecygf thmohihdjovax bwv ocv coax ht wojohehvx ajdkhom! vlg dwrrgov pcthvhcot tgge vc bgvrjothvhcoja rjvlgr vljo dcodgpvwjaax }gaa icwofgf/ Vlht ht bgtv haawtvrjvgf bx vlg HEIt pcthvhco/Icr fgdjfgt j tvrcom jfycdjvg ci irgg djphvja iac}t ,fgecotvrjvgf ectv dagjrax bx vlg :88=jvvgepv vc mhyg twdl iac}t vlg tjeg tvjvwt jt vrjfg iac}t ho vlg HEI Jrvhdagt6

Vlg vlrgg%fgdjfg pgrhcf }lgrg irgg iac}t fcehojvgf vlg jojaxvhdja jof hovgaagdvwja fgbjvg ljtagiv j ychf/ Ho vljv ehoftgv! oc pcahdx dlchdgt }grg rgzwhrgf ,bgxcof iacjvhom vlg g|dljomg rjvg(!tc ocog gycaygf/ ]hvl vlht ehoftgv rgyhtgf! vlgo fhiihdwav pcahdx cpvhcot oc} ljyg vc bg tcrvgfcwv/ Jrg tceg ci vlg dcepcogovt ci hoiac}t ecrg bgogihdhja vljo cvlgrt jof jrg tcegdcepcogovt ecrg jegojbag vc ejojmgegov3 ]ljv hotvrwegovt jrg giigdvhyg ho ejojmhomiac}t3 Lc} }haa hovgrojvhcoja vgothcot bg rgtcaygf }lgrg vlgrg ht dcoiahdv bgv}ggo fhiigrgovdcwovrx ejojmgegovt ,icr g|jepag! }lgo dcwovrhgt jrg rwoohom ac} hovgrgtv rjvgt vc tvhewajvgfcegtvhd jdvhyhvx! lc} tlcwaf vrjfhom pjrvogrt yhg} vlg wo}gadceg jpprgdhjvhco ci vlghr c}odwrrgodhgt3(

(! vlg jdvhyg fgbjvgbx vlg HEI tvjii cygr vlg pjtv v}c xgjrt rgdcmoh~gt vlg pcvgovhjaax fjomgrt ci g|dgtthyg djphvjaiac}t jof ht prgpjrgf vc dcwovgojodg egjtwrgt vc ejojmg vlg iac}t ,Ctvrx gv ja/ 20:0; Ctvrx gvja/ 20::(/ Egjo}lhag vlg HEI G|gdwvhyg Bcjrf tvhaa ljt j ejncrhvx ci vlg caf ehoftgv! rgawdvjovaxprgpjrgf vc tgg vgepcrjrx ejojmgegov ci djphvja iac}t! bwv coax jivgr jaa cvlgr pctthbag

egjtwrgt ljyg bggo g|ljwtvgf ,HEI 20:0j; HEI 20::d(/

Gygo jv vlg bjthd agyga! }g jrg ijr irce wofgrtvjofhom vlg icrdgt frhyhom djphvja iac}t/ J ihre

tvjrvhom pchov ht vlg hfgovhvx vljv vlg tjyhomt#hoygtvegov bjajodg gzwjat vlg dwrrgov jddcwovbjajodg jof vlg ogv djphvja iac}t/ Bwv }g fcov koc} }lhdl ci vlg gagegovt ho vlg hfgovhvxprgfcehojvgt jof lc} vlgx hovgrjdv vc ejhovjho vlg hfgovhvx/ Hi vlg tjyhomt#hoygtvegov bjajodg htectv hepcrvjov! g|pajojvhcot icr ogv djphvja iac}t }haa bg icwof ho vlg tjyhomt jof#cr hoygtvegov

2Lcom Kcom! Dlhoj jof Thomjpcrg oc} ljyg icrghmo rgtgrygt jt ajrmg jt vlghr MFP! jof vlg Pgcpagt Rgpwbahd ci

Dlhoj! Ejajxthj! jof Vljhajof ljyg rgtgrygt gzwja vc jrcwof ljai ci vlghr MFP/ Jv vlgtg agygat vlg prcbage ht ocv tcewdl j vgdlohdja hojbhahvx vc tvgrhah~g! bwv vlg zwjth%ihtdja dctvt ci fchom tc jof vlg lwmg rhtkt vljv dgovrja bjokt ijdgho vlghr icrghmo g|dljomg g|pctwrg/ Gygo j ecfgtv jpprgdhjvhco! rgdcrfgf wthom hovgrojvhcojaax jddgpvgf jddcwovhomegvlcft! }cwaf }hpg cwv dgovrja bjok djphvja jof pwv vlge fggpax hovc ogmjvhyg gzwhvx! twbngdv vc vlg tcrv ci pwbahddrhvhdhte vljv }gjkgot dgovrja bjok hofgpgofgodg ,Ihajrfc jof Mrgoyhaag 20::(/

Ho jox djtg vlht tvrjvgmx prcyhfgt ygrx ahvvag pcthvhyg bgogihv icr vlg rgdhphgov dcwovrhgt/ Vlgrg ht oc rgja%rgtcwrdg

vrjotigr/ Ciihdhja rgtgrygt jrg nwtv jdvhom jt j ahzwhfhvx bwiigr rgjfx vc iwof vlg cwviac} }lgo icrghmogrt ,}lc ljygbgogihvvgf irce vlg lhmlgr fcegtvhd rgvwrot( fgdhfg vc mgv cwv/

4J ajrmg jecwov ci ahvgrjvwrg ,HEI 2007; Kj}jh jof Vjkjmh 20:0(! g|pacrgf vlg hogiigdvhygogtt ci twdl jvvgepvtpjrvhdwajrax frj}hom co vlg g|pgrhgodg ci Ajvho Jegrhdj! }hvl vlg Dlhagjo godjngbghom vlg prheg g|jepag/Jvvgepvt vc jot}gr vlg zwgtvhco ci giigdvhygogtt vlrcwml gdcocegvrhdt }grg ahehvgf bx vlg gofcmgocwt pcahdxrgtpcotg> dcovrcat }grg pwv co }lgo vlg djphvja hoiac} }jt tvrcomgtv jof vjkgo cii }lgo iac}t }gjkgogf/

Ecrg rgdgovax ho Gjtv Jthj! vlgrg }grg tceg jvvgepvt vc wtg dcovrcat ,icr g|jepag! Vljhajof ho Fgdgebgr 2009( joftceg ejdrcprwfgovhja egjtwrgt ho Hofcogthj jof vlg Rgpwbahd ci Kcrgj ,lgrgjivgr Kcrgj( bwv ectv dcwovrhgtjddgpvgf vlg prgyjhahom yhg} vljv twdl dcovrcat ljf ahehvgf giigdvhygogtt/

6Bwv jatc vlg CGDF prgttwrg co Kcrgj agjfhom wp vc hvt egebgrtlhp ho :889/


9/31


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fgvgrehojovt! jof vlg dcoygovhcoja ojvhcoja jddcwovt irjeg}crk }haa bg rgagyjov/ G|pcrvt jofhepcrvt }haa jatc bg pjrv ci vlht ojvhcoja%jddcwovt%bjtgf jpprcjdl/

Hi vlg iac}t vlgetgaygt jrg vlg frhyhom icrdg! vlgtg }cwaf rgzwhrg jojaxtht ho vgret ci mrcttrjvlgr vljo ogv iac}t ,vlg fgdhthco ejkgrt jrg wtwjaax icdwtgf co mrctt rjvlgr vljo j ogv ihmwrg!}lhdl dcoicwoft ewavhpag fgdhthco ejkgrt(/7

Vlg fgdhthcot jrg pcrvicahc dlchdgt! tc }g tlcwaf bg acckhom jv tvcdk pcthvhcot rjvlgr vljo iac}t/Jof gygo lgrg vlg cwvdceg wtwjaax rgiagdvt vlg v}c thfgt vc j vrjotjdvhco ,icr g|jepag! bcvlbcrrc}gr jof agofgr(! tc zwgtvhcot ci pwtl jof pwaa ijdvcrt ejx bcvl bg rgagyjov/ Vlgtgihojodhja iac}t ejx }gaa ljyg vlghr hohvhja hepjdv co jttgv prhdgt rjvlgr vljo ojvhcoja jddcwovtiac}t! jof vlg hovgrdcoogdvhco bgv}ggo vlg og} pcrvicahc gzwhahbrhwe jof gdcocehd jdvhyhvx ,yhj}gjavl giigdvt jof rgajvhyg hovgrgtv rjvg dljomgt( ht tc dcepag| vljv hv }haa bg ljrf vc mgv j ihreljofag co hv/ Jt }gaa! vlg fjvj jrg hodcepagvg/ ]g fc ocv ljyg j prcpgr ljofag co vlg ycaweg cidjrrx%vrjfg ,EdDjwagx 20:0( jof hepcrvjov pjrvt ci vlg hovgrjdvhco ,icr g|jepag! fgrhyjvhygtciigrgf bx vlg brjodlgt ci icrghmo bjokt jof vrjotjdvhcot vjkhom pajdg ho vlg oco%fgahygrjbagicr}jrf ejrkgvt( ejx ocv bg djwmlv ho vlg bjajodg%ci%pjxegovt fjvj! gygo vlcwml vlghr hepjdvht thehajr vc vlg iac}t }lhdl jrg rgdcrfgf ho vlg bjajodg ci pjxegovt/ Ho tlcrv! }g jrg jv j ygrx

gjrax tvjmg ho wofgrtvjofhom djphvja iac}t/

Vlgtg jrg ihojodhja iac}t! djwmlv ho vlg iac}%ci%

iwoft jddcwovt! ocv fhrgdvax rgiagdvgf ho vlg ojvhcoja jddcwovt ,Bcrhc jof Fhtxjvjv 20::(/

6/ G\PAJHOHOM DJPHVJA IAC]T

6/: Fgygacpgf Dcwovrhgt

]hvl vlgtg fhiigrgov hoiawgodgt ho ehof! j wtgiwa tvjrvhom pchov ht vc ocvg vlg brcjf dljrjdvgrhtvhdtci iac}t ho fgygacpgfdcwovrhgt jof vc dcovrjtv vlgtg }hvl gegrmhom dcwovrhgt/ Ho mrctt vgret!fgygacpgf dcwovrx iac}t ljyg hodrgjtgf ygrx twbtvjovhjaax ho rgdgov xgjrt! }lgvlgr egjtwrgf hofcaajr vgret cr jt j pgrdgov ci mrctt fcegtvhd prcfwdv ,MFP( ,Ihmwrgt 4 jof 6(/ Vlgx igaafrjejvhdjaax ho 200iac}t }grg ewdl bhmmgr vljo rgja iac}t(! rgiagdvhom vlg ygrx lhml fgmrgg ci ihojodhja hovgmrjvhco/Vlht g|pjofgf v}c%}jx ihojodhja hovgrjdvhco tgget ewdl ecrg hepcrvjov vljo hovgrgtvfhiigrgovhjat ho g|pajhohom iac}t> jivgr jaa! hi hovgrgtv fhiigrgovhjat }grg vlg ejho frhygr! mrctt iac}t}cwaf bg prgfcehojovax ho cog fhrgdvhco icr gjdl dcwovrx jof ogv iac}t }cwaf bg rgajvhygaxbhmmgr/9

7

Nwtv vc dcepahdjvg vlg tvcrx! lc}gygr! tceg hoiac}t ljyg dactgax rgajvgf cwviac}t ,icr g|jepag! }hvl fgrhyjvhygt joficr}jrf dcygr! jof }lgo vlg dcwovrx ht jdvhom jt j ihojodhja hovgregfhjrx icr jocvlgr dcwovrx! jt ho Lcom Kcom!Dlhoj icr vlg Pgcpagt Rgpwbahd ci Dlhoj(/

9Bgdkgr jof Occog ,200


10/31


]craf Mrctt Djphvja Iac}t

,vrhaahcot ci fcaajrt(

Ocvg> MFP 5 mrctt fcegtvhd prcfwdv/

Tcwrdg> HEI ,20::j; 20::g(/

Ihmwrg 6> ]craf Mrctt Djphvja Iac}t jt ' ci MFP

Ocvg> MFP5mrctt fcegtvhd prcfwdv/



11/31


8

Ho dcovrjtv! icr vlg gegrmhom dcwovrhgt! mrctt iac}t jt j pgrdgov ci MFP ljyg hodrgjtgf coaxecfgtvax thodg vlg tpgdvjdwajr rhtg ho vlg gjrax :880t/ Icr vlg pjtv fgdjfg cr ecrg! gegrmhom%dcwovrx ogv prhyjvg hoiac}t ljyg bggo ecrg vljo ciitgv bx cwviac}t ho vlg icre ci rgtgryglcafhomt> vlg gegrmhom dcwovrhgt ljyg ocv wtgf vlg iac}t vc jdlhgyg rgja%rgtcwrdg vrjotigrt,Ihmwrg 7(/ Djphvja ht iac}hom wplhaa/

Ihmwrg 7> Gegrmhom Dcwovrx Ogv Iac}t jt ' ci MFP

Ocvg> MFP 5mrctt fcegtvhd prcfwdv/


6/2 Gegrmhom Dcwovrhgt

]ljv jrg vlg hepcrvjov ecvhyjvhcot jof dljrjdvgrhtvhdt ci gegrmhom dcwovrhgt g|pajhohom vlhtcwvdceg3

Jt gegrmhom dcwovrhgt dcoygrmg vc}jrf vlg vgdlocacmhdja ircovhgr vlghr djphvja tvcdk ht bghombwhav wp irce ecfgtv pgr djphvj tvjrvhom agygat! vc gygovwjaax ejvdl vlg agygat ci vlg fgygacpgfgdcocehgt jv tceg vheg ho vlg iwvwrg/ Fwrhom vlht vrjothvhco prcfwdvhyhvx }haa mrgjvax hodrgjtg jofrgvwrot vc djphvja }haa bg lhml> vlg ]hdktgaahjo ojvwrja hovgrgtv rjvg ho vlg gegrmhom dcwovrhgt}haa bg twbtvjovhjaax lhmlgr vljo ho vlgfgygacpgf gdcocehgt/ Vlht ehmlv bg g|pgdvgf vc bg vlgprhodhpja wofgraxhom frhygr ci vlg iac}t/=

=

Vlg hepcrvjodg ci vlg ]hdktgaahjo hovgrgtv fhiigrgovhjat ht bgtv tggo ho vlg mrc}hom hepcrvjodg ci vlg djrrx%vrjfgiac}t/ Vlgtg jrg civgo tggo ho vgret ci j ojrrc} fgihohvhco ci vlg djrrx vrjfgvlctg iac}t fhrgdvax hoycayhom v}c


12/31


:0

Vlg g|vgov ci vlg ]hktgaahjo fhiigrgovhja djo bg haawtvrjvgf bx dcepjrhom gzwhvx rgvwrot/ &:00hoygtvgf ho tvcdk ejrkgvt ho Jthj jv vlg gof ci :888 }cwaf ljyg zwjfrwpagf ho yjawg h oHofcogthj jof Hofhj! }hvl ectv ci vlg cvlgr gegrmhom dcwovrhgt tlc}o lgrg fcwbahom cr vrhpahom/


13/31


::

Ihmwrg 9> Rgvwrot co Gzwhvx jof Tlcrv%vgre Bcoft

]ljv &:00 hoygtvgf ho gzwhvhgt jv vlg gof :888 }cwaf bg }crvl jv vlg gof 20:0

]ljv &:00 hoygtvgf ho :%xgjr bcoft jv vlg gof 200:}cwaf bg }crvl jv vlg gof 20:0


Tcwrdg> Jwvlcrt djadwajvhcot/

Vlg iac}t rgtpcotgt vc vlht ]hdktgaahjo fhiigrgovhja fc ocv rgiagdv jo gzwhahbrhwe prcdgtt>dcoygrmgodg ht dcotvrjhogf bx hfhctxodrjvhd hepgfhegovt jof jbtcrpvhyg ahehvjvhcot/ Vlgtgahehvt jrg tgv bx vlg tvhaa gycayhom ihojodhja hoirjtvrwdvwrg ogdgttjrx vc dljooga jof jbtcrb vlgiac}t ,twdl jt plxthdja hotvhvwvhcot jof txtvget! bcof ejrkgvt! jof ihojodhja tkhaat(/ Fggpgrhotvhvwvhcoja ahokt ejkg hv gjthgr icr icrghmogrt vc hoygtv jof icr fcegtvhd hoygtvcrt vc bcrrc}


14/31


:2

cygrtgjt/ Jt vlg iac}t mgv ajrmgr! hv ht prcihvjbag icr vlg ihojodhja tgdvcr vc heprcyg hvthoirjtvrwdvwrg vlrcwml fgygacpegov ci fgrhyjvhyg jof icr}jrf ejrkgvt/ Bgvvgr koc}agfmgg|pjoft vlg iac}t bx ejkhom pcrvicahc ejojmgrt ecrg j}jrg ci vlg pctthbhahvhgt jof ecrgdcoihfgov vc vjkg fgdhthcot/ Hoygtvegov pcrvicahct bgdceg ecrg fhygrthihgf> Jthjo jttgvt jrg tvhaamrcttax wofgr rgprgtgovgf/ Rgejhohom djphvja dcovrcat jrg fhehohtlhom cygr vheg! gtpgdhjaaxcwviac} dcovrcat/

:0

Vlht wofgraxhom vrgof ht pgrhcfhdjaax hovgrrwpvgf bx rgygrtjat vljv jrg hfhctxodrjvhd jof civgo ocvrgajvgf vc gygovt ho vlg rgdhphgov dcwovrhgt/ Ho iac} vgret! vlgtg rgygrtjat djo bg ygrx ajrmg ,jofjrg civgo ogmjvhyg(! bgdjwtg vlgx jrg frhygo bx fgdhthcot rgajvhom vc vlg tvcdk ci jttgvt> vlgjddwewajvhco ci vlg iac}t cygr xgjrt/

]g djo tgg vlgtg dljrjdvgrhtvhdtvlg wofgraxhom vrgof iac}t! pwodvwjvgf bx twffgorgygrtjatho vlg jmmrgmjvg rgmhcoja iac}t ,Ihmwrg =(/

:0Vlg g|dljomg rjvg ht ci dcwrtg jo hepcrvjov gagegov ho iac} fgdhthcot/ Vlg rcag ci vlg g|dljomg rjvg ljt dljomgf

tceg}ljv thodg vlg Jthjo drhtht/ Bgicrg :88=! drcttbcrfgr fgdhthcot }grg prgfhdjvgf co tvjbhahvx yht%%yht vlg WTfcaajr/ Icrghmogrt tggkhom lhmlgr rgvwrot jof fcegtvhd bcrrc}grt tggkhom dlgjpgr iwoft djeg vc rgax co j tvjbagg|dljomg rjvg/ ]lgo ho :88= vlht jttwepvhco prcygf woicwofgf! vrjotjdvhcot }grg frjejvhdjaax rgygrtgf/ Thodgvlg drhtht! g|dljomg rjvgt ljyg bggo ecrg iag|hbag ,jabghv ejojmgf(! }lhdl }jt twppctgf vc ejkg vlg iac}t agttycajvhag/ Bwv Wodcygrgf Hovgrgtv Pjrhvx fcgt ocv lcaf> ho ijdv vlg wofgraxhom vrgof ho vlg gegrmhom dcwovrhgt htvc}jrft jpprgdhjvhco ,jocvlgr rgiagdvhco ci vlg lhmlgr ]hdktgaahjo hovgrgtv rjvgt jof vlg Bjajttj%Tjewgatco giigdv(/Vlwt icrghmo hoygtvcrt ,jof fcegtvhd ihret bcrrc}hom cygrtgjt( dcwaf mgogrjaax jovhdhpjvg ocv nwtv lhmlgr hovgrgtvrjvgt! bwv jt }gaa jo g|dljomg rjvg jpprgdhjvhco cygr vlg egfhwe vgre ,EdDjwagx 20:0(/ Dcwovrhgt }hvl ajrmgrocehoja hovgrgtv fhiigrgovhjat ,bgdjwtg ci lhmlgr hoiajvhco( ehmlv bg g|pgdvgf vc ljyg tejaagr jpprgdhjvhcot/ Vlwthoygtvcrt ho Hofcogthj rgdghygf ectv ci vlg ]hdktgaahjo fhyhfgof ho vlg icre ci lhmlgr hovgrgtv rjvgt jof agtt ho vlgicre ci jpprgdhjvhco/


15/31


:4

Ihmwrg => Iac}t vc Gegrmhom Jthj

,Pgrdgovjmg ci jmmrgmjvg! MFP! icwr zwjrvgr ecyhom jygrjmg(


Tcwrdg> HEI ,20::f(/

Tvjrvhom ho vlg gjrax :880t! vlg hotvhvwvhcoja ahokjmgt rgzwhrgf icr twbtvjovhja iac}t vc Gjtv Jthjbgmjo vc fgygacp!

::

Vlg :880t twrmg }jt gocrecwt}hvl ogv hoiac}t rgjdlhom ecrg vljo 6' ci jmmrgmjvg MFP,jof ewdl ajrmgr icr Hofcogthj! Ejajxthj! vlg Plhahpphogt! Thomjpcrg! jof Vljhajofvlg ihygcrhmhoja egebgrt ci vlg Jttcdhjvhco ci Tcwvlgjtv Jthjo Ojvhcot! cr JTGJO 7tgg bgac}(/Mrctt iac}t dcovhowgf vc rhtg jt j pgrdgov ci MFP! bwv ogv iac}t ljyg ocv tc ijr ejvdlgf vlg

:880t agyga/

jof }hvl vlge vlg iac} ycawegt/ Vlht }jt j v}c%}jx prcdgtt> jt iac}t mcvbhmmgr! hotvhvwvhcoja dljoogat fggpgogf! jof vlht godcwrjmgf ecrg iac}t/

Iwrvlgr fhtjmmrgmjvhco rgygjat vlg fhygrthvx ci g|pgrhgodg jof dhrdwetvjodgt/

Hofhj g|lhbhvt j tvrcom wp}jrf vrgof ho ogv jof mrctt iac}t jt ihojodhja hovgmrjvhco prcmrgttgt!}hvl vlg mrc}hom hepcrvjodg ci pcrvicahc jof bjokhom iac}t hovrcfwdhom ecrg yjrhjbhahvx ho vlg ogv

::Vlht ht civgo tggo ho vgret ci vlg rgecyja ci djphvja iac} rgtvrhdvhcot ,jof vlgrg ht j ajrmg jecwov ci ahvgrjvwrgjvvgepvhom vc egjtwrg vlht(! bwv vlht ht coax j pjrv ci vlg tvcrx/ Hofcogthj! icr g|jepag! ljf rgecygf djphvja iac}rgtvrhdvhcot ho vlg :8=0t! bwv vlg hoiac}t }grg tvhaa rgtvrhdvgf bx cvlgr ijdvcrt wovha vlg :880t/


16/31


:6

iac}t bwv }hvl bcvl vlgtg dcepcogovt dagjrax vrgofhom pcthvhygax/ Vlgtg iac}t ljyg prcyhfgfjepag iwofhom icr Hofhjt twbtvjovhja dwrrgov jddcwov fgihdhv/ Ho vlht jtpgdv! Hofhj jacog jecomvlg dcwovrhgt dcothfgrgf lgrg icaac}t vlg g|pgdvgf ecfga ci jo gegrmhom dcwovrx! }hvl djphvjaiac}hom fc}olhaa }hvl vrgof hodrgjtg ,javlcwml tvhaa }hvl hepcrvjov djphvja dcovrcat(! jv jrcwofvlg rhmlv rjvg vc iwof vlg fgihdhv ,vlg rgja vrjotigr( vcmgvlgr }hvl j prwfgov rhtg ho rgtgrygt/

Vlg Pgcpagt Rgpwbahd ci Dlhoj ,PRD( tlc}t vlg frjejvhd codg%cii cpgohom%wp ci hoiac}t ho vlggjrax :880t!:2

Ihmwrg Ogv Iac}t vc vlg Pgcpagt Rgpwbahd ci Dlhoj

}hvl jo gjrax pgjk ho icrghmo fhrgdv hoygtvegov ,IFH( jof j fc}o}jrf vrgof ,jt jpgrdgov ci MFP( thodg vlht gjrax pgjk! }hvl vlg rhthom hepcrvjodg ci pcrvicahc jof bjokhom iac}t,tvhaa dcotvrjhogf bx djphvja dcovrcat( mhyhom rhtg vc dcothfgrjbag yjrhjvhco ho ogv djphvja iac}t,Ihmwrgt < jof 8(/

,' ci MFP(



:2Tceg ci vlgtg IFH hoiac}t ejx! ho ijdv! rgprgtgov fcegtvhd djphvja rcwof%vrhpphom vc mjho bgogihvt jddcrfgf vcIFH/


17/31


:7

Ihmwrg 8> Mrctt Iac}t vc vlg Pgcpagt Rgpwbahd ci Dlhoj

,' ci MFP(


Tcwrdg> DGHD Fjvj Dcepjox Avf/ Fjvjbjtg/lvvp>##}}}/dghdfjvj/dce#,jddgttgf < Nwog 20:2(/

Vlg og}ax hofwtvrhjah~gf gdcocehgt ,OHGt( iac}t jrg fcehojvgf bx vlg v}c%}jx iac}t ci vlg v}cihojodhja dgovgrt ci Lcom Kcom! Dlhoj jof Thomjpcrg/ :4

Vlg JTGJO 7 tlc} vlg cygr}lgaehom hepjdv ci vlg Jthjo drhtht! fgtdrhbgf jbcyg! }hvl jejrkgf jof twtvjhogf ijaa ho hoygtvegov/ Vlht tvcrx bgmhot }hvl vlg gocrehvx ci vlg ogv hoiac}t hovlg :880t! rgjdlhom :0' ci MFP bgicrg vlg :88= drhtht/ Fwrhom vlg drhtht! cwviac}t rgjdlgf JTGJO5Jttcdhjvhco ci Tcwvlgjtv Jthjo Ojvhcot; OHGt5og}ax hofwtvrhjah~gf gdcocehgt/

:4Kcrgj jof Vjhpgh!Dlhoj jrg jatc hodawfgf ho vlht mrcwp/
http://www.ceicdata.com/http://www.ceicdata.com/http://www.ceicdata.com/http://www.ceicdata.com/


18/31


:9


Ihmwrg ::> Mrctt Iac}t irce vlg OHGt jof JTGJO 7

,' ci MFP(

Ocvg> Vlg dcacr dcfg ht rgygrtgf icr JTGJO 7/ JTGJO 5 Jttcdhjvhco ci Tcwvlgjtv Jthjo Ojvhcot; OHGt 5 og}axhofwtvrhjah~gf gdcocehgt/


Vlg g|pgrhgodg ci vlg JTGJO 7 dcwovrhgt ht vlg tvjrkgtv g|jepag ci vlg ectv cbyhcwt hovrhothddljrjdvgrhtvhd ci ogv hoiac}t vc gegrmhom dcwovrhgt> vlg yjrhjbhahvx/ Vlg HEI fgtdrhbgt vlgtg iac}tho vgret ci j twddgtthco ci twrmgt! gphtcfgt! jof }jygt rjvlgr vljo co%mchom vrgof iac}t/:6

Hvtlcwaf ocv dceg jt j twrprhtg vljv j rjofce g|vgroja gygov dcwaf tgv cii rgygrtjat> j ajrmgdcepcogov ci vlg iac}t ht! bx ojvwrg! irjmhag jof iahmlvx/ Ewdl ci vlg dcrpcrjvg fgbv ht tlcrv vgre,Ihmwrg :2(/ ]lgrg vlg iac}t jrg ci j djrrx%vrjfg ojvwrg! hoygtvcrt jrg dcovhowcwtax bjajodhom jygrx tejaa wofgraxhom djrrx jfyjovjmg jmjhotv vlg prctpgdv ci j ewdl ajrmgr codg%ciiheegfhjvg g|dljomg rjvg actt jof vlwt jrg ja}jxt jagrv icr gygovt }lhdl }haa vrhmmgr j tlhiv hovlg g|dljomg rjvg! prgpjrgf vc ecyg jlgjf ci vlg drc}f/

Rgdcmoh~hom vlht yjrhjbhahvx ht dgovrja vc pcahdx! bgdjwtg vlg pwrpcrvgf bgogihvt ci djphvja hoiac}jrg twbtvjovhjaax fhehohtlgf bx vlht dljrjdvgrhtvhd/ Icr j rgja%tgdvcr hoygtvcr oggfhom ihojodg icrj acom%ahygf haahzwhf prcngdv! j iwofhom tcwrdg vljv frhgt wp ho vlg dxdahdja fc}ovwro ht ci ygrxahehvgf wtg! jof ejx }gaa fc ecrg ljre vljo mccf/

:7

:6 HEI ,20::f( ljt jojax~gf mrctt iac}t vc gegrmhom dcwovrhgt ho vgret ci twrmgt ,tlcrv pgrhcft }lgrg vlg hoiac} htajrmg jof ajrmg dcepjrgf }hvl vrgof( gphtcfgt ,prcacomgf twrmgt( jof }jygt ,}lgrg vlgrg ht dcrrgajvgfecygegovt jdrctt dcwovrhgt/ Vlg }jygt ehmlv bg jttcdhjvgf }hvl dljomgt ho vlg icrghmo ,hoygtvhom( dcwovrx/ VlgHEI hfgovhihgt vlgtg twrmgt jt :887Z6:88


19/31


:=

Ihmwrg :2> Tlcrv%vgre Dcrpcrjvg Iwofhom

,jygrjmg cygr 20002008! jt ' ci vcvja fgbv(


Tcwrdg> HEI ,20::d(/

Vlg iac}t jrg ocv coax ycajvhag! vlgx jrg jatc prcdxdahdja/ Rhdljrft ,2007( jof Lgofrjtjl ,20:0(

prgtgov tpgdhihd gyhfgodg rgagyjov vc vlg rgmhco jof prcyhfg jffhvhcoja rgigrgodgt/

]lhag vlg tlcrv%vgre ecfgrjvg yjrhjvhcot ci iac} jrg hodcoygohgov! vlgx djo bg hmocrgf crteccvlgf bx egjot ci icrghmo g|dljomg hovgrygovhco hi vlgrg tgget jox fjomgr ci vlgebgdcehom tgai%rghoicrdhom ,tgg pcahdx fhtdwtthco bgac}(/ Vlg tgrhcwt pcahdx httwgt jrhtg irce vlgtwbtvjovhja rgygrtjat> fwrhom vlg Jthjo drhtht jof fwrhom vlg 200


20/31


: djphvja iac}t jrg prcdxdahdja,tgg jbcyg(! jffhom vc dcotwepvhco ho vlg wpt}hom jof rgtvrjhohom hv ho vlg fc}ot}hom/ Ho vlgwpt}hom! icrghmo iwofhom mhygt bcrrc}grt ecrg cppcrvwohvx vc cygr%g|vgof vlgetgaygt/ ]gtlcwafov ihof vlht vcc twrprhthom/ Cog ci vlg dgovrja djwtgt ci dxdagt ,jof drhtgt( ht vlg rcag citlhivt ho dcoihfgodg/ Icrghmogrt tljrg vlg cpvhehte ci vlg wpt}hom/ ]lgo gdcocehd jdvhyhvx ijaatbgdjwtg ci fcegtvhd ajdk ci dcoihfgodg! icrghmo iwofhom ht ocv mchom vc tvgp ho vc ihaa vlg mjp,HEI 20::f; ]haahjetco 2007(/

Ho prjdvhdg vlg ecrg ahkgax dxdahdja tgzwgodg ht vljv icrghmo djphvja gojbagt vlg dxdahdja wpt}homvc rwo acomgr/ ]hvl j iacjvhom g|dljomg rjvg! tvrcomgr jdvhyhvx jpprgdhjvgt vlg g|dljomg rjvg!godcwrjmhom hepcrvt! vlwt lcafhom hoiajvhco ho dlgdk/ Tphaahom tvrcomgr fgejof hovc hepcrvtejx tcivgo vlg dxdag ,jychfhom twffgo tvcpt(/ Hi vlht g|vgofgf tgzwgodg ht bghom iwofgf bxicrghmo djphvja hoiac} ,rjvlgr vljo bghom twffgoax dwv cii vlrcwml ajdk ci icrghmo g|dljomg vljvtcegvhegt cddwrrgf ho ih|gf g|dljomg rjvg rgmhegt(! ho vlht tgotg vlg hoiac}t ehmlv bg tggo jtteccvlhom vlg dxdag/ Bwv vlht ht ocv vlg tcrv ci dcotwepvhco teccvlhom goyhtjmgf ho vlgvg|vbcckt/

Vlht tcrv ci dxdahdja tvjbhah~jvhco ehmlv ecrg wtgiwaax bg fcog wthom vlg dcwovrxt c}o icrghmog|dljomg rgtgrygt> rwoohom fc}o rgtgrygt fwrhom vlg tvrcom pljtg ci vlg dxdag vhmlvgotahzwhfhvx rjvlgr vljo jffhom vc hv/ Tphaahom g|dgtt fgejof ht ho jox djtg j pccr twbtvhvwvg icrlhmlgr hovgrgtv rjvgt! }lhdl ejx bg wofgrehogf bx djphvja hoiac}t/

]ljv ci vlg jrmwegov vljv hovgrojvhcoja iac}t jaac} tprgjf ci rhtk jof prcyhfg pcrvicahcfhygrthihdjvhco bgogihvt3 Jrg fcegtvhd pcrvicahct jof bjajodg tlggvt tjigr hi vlgx dcovjho icrghmoahjbhahvhgt! prcbjbax fgocehojvgf ho icrghmo g|dljomg3 Jrg fcegtvhd bjokt tvrcomgr hi vlgxcbvjho j thmohihdjov pjrv ci vlghr iwofhom irce cygrtgjt320 Jrg icrghmogrt }lc ljyg hoygtvgf pjrvci vlghr pcrvicahct ho icrghmo jttgvt! prcbjbax ho icrghmo dwrrgodx! ecrg ahkgax vc bg tvjbaglcafgrt3

2:Pwv ho vlgtg vgret! vlg fhygrthihdjvhco bgogihvt tgge ecrg ahkgax vc bg pgrygrtg vljo

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22

20

Rgdjaa vlg 200< Kcrgjo g|pgrhgodg! }lgo brjodlgt ci icrghmo bjokt twffgoax rgygrtgf vlghr gjrahgr djphvja hoiac}t/

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2:Njpjo! }hvl hvt lhml rjvhc ci mcygroegov fgbv vc MFP! ht tggo jt tvjbag bgdjwtg ectv ci vlht ht lgaf fcegtvhdjaax/

22Vlgrg jrg! lc}gygr! djtgt }lgrg vlg cppcrvwohvx ci icrghmo fhygrthihdjvhco ht dagjrax ho vlg hovgrgtvt ci vlg djphvja%

rgdghyhom gegrmhom dcwovrx/ Hv ljt bggo j acom%tvjofhom pjrv ci Thomjpcrgt hoygtvegov tvrjvgmx vc godcwrjmg bcvlhoiac}t ci IFH jof cwviac}t ci hoygtvegov djphvja! vc fhygrthix }ljv }cwaf cvlgr}htg bg j ojrrc} rjomg ci jttgvt!g|dgtthygax dcrrgajvgf }hvl vlg pgricrejodg ci vlg fcegtvhd gdcocex/ Hv ht }crvl ocvhom vljv vlht fhygrthihdjvhco hthohvhjvgf jof ejojmgf bx vlg rgdhphgov dcwovrx/


22/31


20

Vlgrg jrg dagjrax thvwjvhcot ho }lhdl icrghmo djphvja iac}t djo g|grv fhtdhpahog cygrejdrcgdcocehd pcahdhgt! }hvl mcygroegovt ljyhom j tvrcom hodgovhyg vc ejhovjho mccf pcahdhgtho crfgr vc jychf fgpjrvwrg ci iahmlvx djphvja/ Vlht jrmwegov }cwaf bg ecrg pc}griwa hi ejrkgvtljf fgygacpgf j rgahjbag rgpwvjvhco icr fhtdgrohom jof vhegax ecohvcrhom/ Bwv icrghmo hoygtvcrtvgof vc icaac} hehvjvhyg ageehom%ahkg dcrrgajvgf bgljyhcr! jof rjvhom jmgodhgt ljyg j }gaa%gtvjbahtlgf rgpwvjvhco icr cbtgryhom gdcocehgt vlrcwml vlg rgjr%yhthco ehrrcr! rjvlgr vljo ho j

icr}jrf%acckhom lgapiwa }jx/ Vc vlg g|vgov vljv icrghmo iac}t godcwrjmg rgdhphgov dcwovrhgt vckggp hovgrgtv rjvgt vcc ac}! vlht djo ljrfax bg lgapiwa vc fhtdhpahog/ Vc vlg g|vgov vljv icrghmohoiac}t djwtg vlg g|dljomg rjvg vc bg jbcyg hvt acom%vgre gzwhahbrhwe! hv ht ljrf vc tgg vlht jtg|grdhthom lgapiwa ejdrcgdcocehd fhtdhpahog/

24

Tc ewdl icr vlg wtwja jrmwegovt ho ijycr ci icrghmo djphvja/ Cog rjrgax egovhcogf jfyjovjmg htvljv icrghmo ihojodhja dgovgrt ejx prcyhfg j rjomg ci wtgiwa ihojodhja tgryhdgt ocv jyjhajbag ho vlglceg dcwovrx/ Thomjpcrg ejx prcyhfg vlht icr Hofcogthjt dcrpcrjvg jof bjokhom tgdvcr; LcomKcom! Dlhoj icr vlg PRD; jof Og} Xcrk icr j rjomg ci dcwovrhgt ,hodawfhom dcwovrhgt }hvlejvwrg ihojodhja ejrkgvt twdl jt Jwtvrjahj(/

26

Vc bjajodg vlg gyjawjvhco ci vlht rjvlgr ecfgtv ahtv ci jfyjovjmgt! }g oggf vc rgdjaa vlgihojodhja irjmhahvx jof prwfgovhja prcbaget! fhtdwttgf jbcyg ho rgajvhco vc tpgdhihd dcwovrhgt ho

Gjtv Jthj/

27

]g jatc oggf vc ocvg vljv vlg pcahdx rgtpcotgt vc djphvja rgygrtjat jrg wtwjaaxhogiigdvhyg/ Ho pjrvhdwajr! lhmlgr hovgrgtv rjvgt jrg hepcvgov ho ljavhom cwviac}t }lgo vlgrg jrgfcwbvt jbcwv vlg lgjavl ci vlg ihojodhja txtvge jof vlg g|dljomg rjvg ht wofgr prgttwrg/

24

Vlg httwg ci fhtdhpahog ejx jatc bg rgagyjov jv vlg ehdrc agyga/ ]lgo vlgrg ht j fhrgdv rgajvhcotlhp bgv}ggobcrrc}gr jof agofgr! vlg icrghmo agofgr ejx prcyhfg giigdvhyg jof jpprcprhjvg fhtdhpahog co vlg fcegtvhd bcrrc}gr,nwtv jt j fcegtvhd fhrgdv agofgr }cwaf(/ Bwv ewdl ci icrghmo hoiac} cddwrt ho jo hofhrgdv }jx ,}hvl vlg icrghmogrlcafhom j ejrkgv hotvrwegov twdl jt j bcof( }hvlcwv fhrgdv dcoogdvhco bgv}ggo icrghmo agofgr jof fcegtvhd bcrrc}gr/26

Fcgt vlht jbhahvx vc mgv icrghmo iwofhom gjthax holhbhv vlg mrc}vl ho vlg fcegtvhd ihojodhja ejrkgv3 Hv ht civgo jrmwgfvljv vlht ht vlg rgjtco icr vlg vlho dcrpcrjvg bcof ejrkgv ho Jwtvrjahj! jof ejx g|pajho vlg tejaa th~g ci vlgHofcogthjo ihojodhja tgdvcr/ Vlht yhg} djo bg tggo ho vlg jrmwegov vljv vlg PRD ht ocv xgv jbag vc prcyhfg vlg iwaarjomg ci hovgregfhjvhco! tc tgoft hvt twrpawt iwoft vc bg hoygtvgf ho tjig WT jttgvt ,icrghmo g|dljomg rgtgrygt(! }hvlvlg WT tgofhom pjrv ci vlht bjdk ho vlg icre ci rhtk%djphvja hoygtvegovt hovc vlg PRD/27

CGDF ,20::> 400( tlc}t vljv gegrmhom dcwovrhgt vljv ljyg g|pgrhgodgf ajrmg djphvja hoiac}t jrg ecrg ahkgax vcg|pgrhgodg j bjokhom drhtht


23/31


2:

9/ ]LJV EHMLV BG FCOG3

Vlg HEIt tvjrvhom pchov ht vljv iac}t jrg hovrhothdjaax bgogihdhja jof hv ht coax vlg twrmgt vljvehmlv djwtg prcbaget/

29Vlgtg ehmlv mhyg rhtg vc ejdrcgdcocehd prcbaget cr httwgt ho vlg

ihojodhja tgdvcr ,Ctvrx gv ja/ 20::(2=

9/: HEI Rgdceegofjvhcot

/ Ho fgjahom }hvl twrmgt! vlg HEI rgdceegoft j lhgrjrdlhdjatgzwgodg ci djtdjfhom rgtpcotgt! }hvl djphvja dcovrcat jv vlg bcvvce ci vlg vcca bc|> bgicrghepcthom djphvja dcovrcat! dcwovrhgt oggf ihrtv vc g|ljwtv vlghr ejdrcgdcocehd%dwe%g|dljomg%rjvg pcahdx cpvhcot ,Ctvrx gv ja/ 20::> 6(/

G|dljomg rjvg jpprgdhjvhco hi vlg rjvg ht wofgryjawgf/ Vlht tgget tgai%gyhfgov bwv hrrgagyjovvc vlg prcbage> vlgtg gegrmhom dcwovrhgt ihof vlgetgaygt }hvl dcovhowhom wp}jrf prgttwrg covlghr g|dljomg rjvgt/ Vlgrg ht rcce icr jpprgdhjvhco coax jv vlctg rjrg dxdahdja ecegovt }lgodjphvja ht iac}hom cwv/

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g|dljomg rjvg ejx ljyg bggo tcivgogf! twmmgtvhom vljv hovgrygovhco ht jddgpvjbag prcyhfgf hvfcgtov vlrc} ecogvjrx pcahdx cii dcwrtg/

2 vlht hovgrygovhco ht tcegvhegt pwv icr}jrf jt j egvlcf ci jwmegovhom jo hojfgzwjvgagyga ci icrghmo g|dljomg rgtgrygt! agjyhom cpgo }lgvlgr hovgrygovhco pcahdx ehmlv jatcagmhvhejvgax bg wtgf vc dcotvrjho vlg jpprgdhjvhco/

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hovgrojvhcoja ihojodhja hovgmrjvhco ht iwofjegovjaax bgogihdhja vc gegrmhom ejrkgv dcwovrhgt! thodg hv gjtgtihojodhom dcotvrjhovt icr prcfwdvhyg hoygtvegov prcngdvt! ictvgrt vlg fhygrthihdjvhco ci hoygtvegov rhtk! prcecvgt hovgr%vgepcrja vrjfg! jof dcovrhbwvgt vc vlg fgygacpegov ci ihojodhja ejrkgvt/ Hoiac} twrmgt! lc}gygr! rgzwhrg jojpprcprhjvg pcahdx rgtpcotg bgdjwtg vlgx djo agjf vc gdcocehd cygrlgjvhom! g|dgtthyg jpprgdhjvhco! cr prgttwrgt hopjrvhdwajr tgdvcrt ci vlg gdcocex ,twdl jt tgdvcrja drgfhv bccet jof jttgv prhdg bwbbagt(/ ,Ctvrx gv ja/ 20::> =(/

Ho jox djtg! }ljv ht vlgrjvhcojag icr rgfwdhom bwfmgv g|pgofhvwrg cr rjhthom rgygowg ho crfgr vc ejkg rcce icr vlgicrghmo djphvja3 Vlgrg ht j prgtwepvhco lgrg vljv vlg icrghmo djphvja mhygt rhtg vc ecrg wtgiwajdvhyhvx vljo vlg bwfmgv/ ]lx tlcwaf icrghmo djphvja bg godcwrjmgf jv vlg g|pgotg ci bwfmgvprhcrhvhgt3

2=bgicrg hepcthom djphvja dcovrcat! dcwovrhgt oggf ihrtv vc g|ljwtv vlghr ejdrcgdcocehd%dwe%g|dljomg%rjvg pcahdx

cpvhcot/ Vlg ejdrc pcahdx rgtpcotg oggft vc ljyg prhejdx bcvl bgdjwtg ci hvt hepcrvjodg ho lgaphom vc jbjvg vlghoiac} twrmg! jof bgdjwtg hv gotwrgt vljv dcwovrhgt jdv ho j ewavhajvgrjaax%dcothtvgov ejoogr jof fc ocv hepctgdcovrcat egrgax vc jychf ogdgttjrx g|vgroja jof ejdrc%pcahdx jfnwtvegov/ ,Ctvrx gv ja/ 20::(/2 ht hv gocwml3 V}c httwgt rgzwhrg iwrvlgr jvvgovhco/ Ihrtv! }lgvlgr wp}jrf prgttwrgco vlg g|dljomg rjvg }haa tvhaa prgtgov fhiihdwavhgt/ Tgdcof! }lgvlgr vlg ejdrcprwfgovhjaegjtwrgt ehmlv! vlgetgaygt! pwtl vlg prcbaget gatg}lgrg rjvlgr vljo rgtcayhom vlge/ Icrg|jepag! rgtvrhdvhom bjokt ho prcyhfhom icrghmo dwrrgodx acjot cr rgdghyhom icrghmo dwrrgodxiwofhom ehmlv godcwrjmg dceegrdhja bcrrc}grt vc tggk icrghmo iwoft fhrgdvax irce cygrtgjthovgregfhjrhgt/

Vc vlg g|vgov vljv djphvja iac}t prgtgov j vlrgjv vc ihojodhja tvjbhahvx! vlgtg jrgdgrvjhoax jo jpprcprhjvg rgtpcotg/ Bwv httwgt rgajvgf vc vlg tvjbhahvx ci vlg ihojodhja txtvgetlcwaf ocv fgpgof co }lgvlgr cr ocv djphvja iac}t jrg g|dgtthyg jv vlg ejdrc agyga! ocr tlcwaftwdl egjtwrgt bg tggo jt vgepcrjrx/ Hi twbtvjovhja iwofrjhthom co icrghmo ecogx ejrkgvtprgtgovt j ywaogrjbhahvx vc vlg bjokhom txtvge! vlgo vljv ht hvtgai vlg rjvhcojag icr rgtvrhdvhco/

Rgtvrjhohom vlg bjokt irce prcyhfhom icrghmo dwrrgodx fgocehojvgf acjot ejkgt tgotg vcprcvgdv vlg fcegtvhd bjokt! rgmjrfagtt ci }ljv ht ljppgohom vc djphvja iac}t/

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Vlgrg jrg v}c prcbaget vc bg jffrgttgf bx pcahdx/ Ihrtv! vlg ]hdktgaahjo hovgrgtv fhiigrgovhja htahkgax vc jvvrjdv ecrg djphvja hoiac} vljo vlg gegrmhom dcwovrhgt djo gjthax jof giigdvhygaxjbtcrb/ Tgdcof! vlgtg hoiac}t jrg ygrx yjrhjbag! twbngdv vc twffgo rgygrtjat/

Vlg }gjkogtt ho vlg HEIt jpprcjdl ht vlg prgtwepvhco vljv rcwvhog iac}t ,vljv ht! g|dawfhom vlgtwrmgt( jrg ja}jxt bgogihdhja/ Vlwt vlg prcbage ht tggo jt j vgepcrjrx dxdahdja plgocegoco/Tggo! hotvgjf! ho vgret ci j tvrwdvwrja httwg ,vlg ]hdktgaahjo hovgrgtv fhiigrgovhja( dcebhogf }hvlfjejmhom yjrhjbhahvx! vlg bgvvgr tvjrvhom pchov ht j dcwovrx%tpgdhihd jojaxtht ,rgdcmoh~hom vlgtwbtvjovhja hovrj%dcwovrx fhiigrgodgt cbtgrygf jbcyg(! bjtgf co jo gyjawjvhco ci }lgvlgr vlghoiac}t jrg j tgothbag dcepcogov ci vlg ejdrc%tvrjvgmx/ Vlg tvjrvhom pchov tlcwaf bg }hvl vlgfcegtvhd tjyhomt jof#cr hoygtvegov bjajodg/ ]g ocvgf jbcyg! vljv icr ectv ci vlg Gjtv Jthjo

gegrmhom dcwovrhgt! vlg tjyhomt jof#cr hoygtvegov bjajodg ht pcthvhyg/Vlgrg jrg dhrdwetvjodgt ,pgrljpt rgagyjov vc vlg JTGJO 7( }lgrg vlg cpvheja rgtpcotg vcg|dgtthyg djphvja iac}t }cwaf bg vc godcwrjmg mrgjvgr jbtcrpvhco> jo hodrgjtg ho fcegtvhdhoygtvegov! }hvl vlg plxthdja rgtcwrdgt icr vlht dcehom ejhoax irce vlg rgja rgtcwrdg vrjotigryhj j dwrrgov jddcwov fgihdhv! iwofgf bx djphvja hoiac}/ Vlht ehmlv hoycayg dcothfgrjvhco ci vlgvxpg ci djphvja hoiac}/ IFH ht ocv nwtv ecrg tvjbag> ho jffhvhco vc hvt vgdlocacmx jof tkhaa vrjotigrt!hv wtwjaax hoycaygt fhrgdv vrjotigr ci rgja rgtcwrdgt ,icr g|jepag! hepcrv ci tpgdhjah~gfejdlhogrx! tgryhdgt! cr hovgaagdvwja djphvja(! jwvcejvhdjaax brhomhom jbcwv vlg rgja rgtcwrdgvrjotigr/ IFH tlhivt vlg dwrrgov jddcwov ho vlg fhrgdvhco ci fgihdhv }hvlcwv vlg hodcoygohgov wp}jrfprgttwrg co vlg g|dljomg rjvg/

Ajrmgr bwfmgv fgihdhvt vc hodrgjtg hoirjtvrwdvwrg hoygtvegov ehmlv jatc bg jo jpprcprhjvg

rgtpcotg vc g|dgtthyg pcrvicahc hoiac}t hovc mcygroegov tgdwrhvhgt ,jmjho! vlht ejx bg rgagyjovvc JTGJO 7(/ Hi icrghmogrt }jov vc lcaf fcegtvhd mcygroegov tgdwrhvhgt! prcyhfhom vlge }hvl vlgihojodhja hotvrwegov vljv vlgx }jov tgget j tgothbag gagegov ci vlg rgtpcotg/4:

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Vlgrg ht j dceprglgothyg fhtdwtthco ci vlgtg pctthbhahvhgt ho Ctvrx gv ja/ ,20::(/ Tgg jatc Dljpvgr 4! HEI ,20::b(/4:

Ci dcwrtg vlht ht coax cog gagegov ci vlg rgtpcotg> brhomhom jbcwv vlg rgja vrjotigr ci rgtcwrdgt jof tvggrhom vlgehovc prcfwdvhyg hoygtvegov ejx bg vlg ljrf pjrv/ J }gaa%fgygacpgf fcegtvhd bcof ejrkgv ehmlv lgap vc prcyhfg vlgiwofhom icr g|pjofgf hoirjtvrwdvwrg hoygtvegov! bwv twdl g|pjothco rgzwhrgt prcmrgtt co vlg plxthdja g|pgofhvwrg!mcygrojodg jof wvhahvx prhdhom httwgt jt }gaa/


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Mhygo vlg tjyhomt jof#cr hoygtvegov tvjrvhom pchov twmmgtvgf lgrg! vlg pcahdx httwgt djo bgahokgf vc vlg ]haahjetco bjof! bjtkgv! jof drj}a ,BBD( jpprcjdl ,]haahjetco 200 }lgo iac}t rgygrtg! bwiigrhom vlht }hvlhovgrygovhco ht ecrg jpprcprhjvg vljo vhmlvgohom ejdrcgdcocehd pcahdhgt/ Hi hovgrygovhco ht v}c%}jx ho vlg egfhwe vgre! hv }haa bg prcihvjbag> hv hoycaygt bwxhom dlgjp jof tgaahom fgjr cygr vlgdcwrtg ci vlg g|dljomg rjvg dxdag jof vlg }hfvl ci vlg bjof mhygt tceg egjtwrg ci vlg prcihvejrmho/

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Vlht jffrgttgt cog jtpgdv ci vlg djphvja iac}t prcbage> yjrhjbhahvx/ Vlht agjygt vlg prcbage cig|dgtthyg hoiac}t jof cygr%jpprgdhjvhco/ ]ljv hi djphvja ht jvvrjdvgf bgdjwtg vlgrg jrg hovgrgtvfhiigrgovhjat vljv jrg bcvl tvrwdvwrja ,vljv ht! acom ajtvhom( jof twbtvjovhja3 J dcwovrx }hvl j lhml]hdktgaahjo hovgrgtv rjvg }haa rcwvhogax ljyg j lhmlgr pcahdx rjvg vljo vlg hovgrojvhcoja ocre! }hvlvlg }lcag ci vlg xhgaf dwryg lhmlgr co jygrjmg cygr vheg/ Vlht ht vlg rjvg oggfgf vc kggp vlg

gdcocex ho gzwhahbrhwe }hvl prhdg tvjbhahvx! jof vlwt djphvja iac}t jvvrjdvgf bx vlgtg rjvgt }haa bgwofgrehohom vlg hovgov ci ecogvjrx pcahdx/

Jo cbyhcwt prgahehojrx rgtpcotg ht vc gotwrg vljv twdl hoiac}t jrg vj|gf jv vlg tjeg rjvg jtfcegtvhd hoygtvegov/ 46

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]lhag vlg egvlcfcacmx icr gtvhejvhom IGGRt ht tvhaa ygrx jpprc|hejvg! vlg dcodgpv ht oc} }gaa%fgygacpgf! }hvljavgrojvhyg egvlcfcacmhgt tgv cwv ho HEI ,2009( Egvlcfcacmx icr DMGR G|dljomg Rjvg Jttgttegovtprcyhfhom vlgfgvjha/ Ihajfrc gv ja/ ,20::( ljyg j fgvjhagf jppgofh| vjbag tgvvhom cwv vlg yjrhcwt jpprcjdlgt vc IGGR djadwajvhcovjkgo ho fhiigrgov dcwovrhgt/

Vlg thepagtv }jx }cwaf bg vc hepctg j }hvllcafhom vj| vljvjpprc|hejvgt fcegtvhd vj| rjvgt/

44Vlht pcahdx jpprcjdl djo bg fhtvhomwhtlgf irce vlg Mwhfcvvh jpprcjdl ,gofcrtgf bx Mrggotpjo :888(/ Ho vlg

Mwhfcvvh jpprcjdl! icrghmo g|dljomg rgtgrygt jrg bhm gocwml vc dcpg }hvl jo cwviac} gzwja vc fgbv ijaahom fwg cygrvlg og|v xgjr/ Ho giigdv vlg rgtgrygt jdv jt j ahzwhfhvx pcca vljv jaac}t djrrx%vrjfg hoygtvcrt vc mgv cwv ci vlgdwrrgodx }lgo vlgx }jov vc ,EdDjwagx 20:0(/ Vlg zwjth%ihtdja dctv ci rgtgryg lcafhom ht j dctv vc vlg fcegtvhdgdcocex! }lhag vlg bgogihv ci vlg hovgrgtv fhiigrgovhja mcgt vc vlg icrghmo hoygtvcr/ Ho vlg javgrojvhyg tvrjvgmxtwmmgtvgf lgrg! vlg icrghmo hoygtvcrt djo rgygrtg vlghr vrjotjdvhco! bwv coax jv j ac}gr g|dljomg rjvg! }lhdl tlhivtewdl ci vlg djrrx%vrjfg bgogihv bjdk vc vlg rgdghyhom dcwovrx ho vlg icre ci prcihv co g|dljomg%rjvg hovgrygovhco/

46Vlgrg jrg jv agjtv v}c rgjtcot }lx vlht ejx ocv bg vlg djtg jv prgtgov/ Jt j agmjdx ci vlg vhegt }lgo gegrmhomdcwovrhgt ljf vrcwbag iwofhom vlghr dwrrgov jddcwov fgihdhvt! icrghmo djphvja }jt civgo godcwrjmgf vlrcwmlprgigrgovhja vj| vrgjvegov> ac}gr vj| rjvgt cr gygo vj| g|gepvhcot/ Icr g|jepag! ho 2007 Vljhajof rgtdhofgf hvt}hvllcafhom vj| co icrghmo iac}t vc godcwrjmg hoiac}t ,jof rgtvcrgf hv ho 20:0 }lgo vlg hoiac}t }grg pwvvhomg|dgtthyg wp}jrf prgttwrg co vlg g|dljomg rjvg(/ Tgdcofax! fcwbag vj| jmrggegovt rcwvhogax tlhiv vlg bgogihv ci


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Vlht tvhaa agjygt vlg ]hdktgaahjo hovgrgtv fhiigrgovhja jt jo hojpprcprhjvg hodgovhyg icr icrghmohoygtvcrt/ Hi vlht djwtgt g|dgtthyg hoiac}t! vlgrg }cwaf tgge vc bg j djtg icr rcwvhogax hepcthomj Brj~hahjo tvxag vj| co pcrvicahc jof bjokhom iac}t! }hvl j ej|hewe rjvg gzwja vc vlg fhiigrgodgbgv}ggo vlg fcegtvhd jof icrghmo pcahdx hovgrgtv rjvgt/47

Vlht jffrgttgt! icr g|jepag! vlg dwrrgov thvwjvhco }lgrg ygrx ac} hovgrgtv rjvgt ho vlg jfyjodgf

dcwovrhgt jrg drgjvhom ajrmg hovgrgtv fhiigrgovhjat! }hvl djphvja hoiac}t vljv jrg pwvvhom wo}gadcegwp}jrf prgttwrg co g|dljomg rjvgt ,dcepjrgf }hvlBrj~ha! }lgrg vlg rgja giigdvhyg g|dljomgrjvg rctg 90' lhmlgr vljo hvt 2000200= jygrjmg(/

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Fcgt vlht vjkg jddcwov ci ewavhajvgrja gzwhahbrhj3 Brcjfax! hv fcgt/ Icrghmo dcwovrhgt jrg cidcwrtg govhvagf vc tgv vlghr ecogvjrx pcahdx jpprcprhjvgax icr vlghr fcegtvhd dhrdwetvjodgt!bgogihvhom irce vlg heprcygegov vc hovgrojvhcoja dcepgvhvhygogtt vljv rcwvhogax dcegt }hvl vlht,dcepjrgf }hvl vlg WT jv prgtgov(/ Tc vcc! vlg gegrmhom dcwovrhgt tlcwaf bg jbag vc tgv vlghrhovgrgtv rjvgt jpprcprhjvgax icr vlghr dhrdwetvjodgt! jof rgthtv hoiac}t vljv wofgrehog vlghrfcegtvhd pcahdx tgvvhomt/

Vlgrg }cwaf jatc bg vlg cppcrvwohvx vcyjrx vlg hovgrgtv%gzwjah~jvhco vj| cygr vlg dcwrtg ci vlg djphvja%iac} dxdag/

Cygr vheg vlg yjrhjbhahvx ci djphvja iac}t ejx fhehohtl/ Jt }g ljyg ocvgf! }lgo g|dljomg rjvgt

ijaa ho gegrmhom dcwovrhgt! vlht prcyckgt twbtvjovhja djphvja cwviac}/ Vlht dcovrjtvt }hvl vlgg|pgrhgodg ci dcwovrhgt twdl jt Jwtvrjahj vljv rgahgt co ajrmg icrghmo hoiac}t vc iwof vlgtwbtvjovhja tvrwdvwrja dwrrgov jddcwov fgihdhv/ Fwrhom fgprgdhjvhco gphtcfgt ,ocvjbax hoTgpvgebgr :88< fwrhom vlg Jthjo drhtht jof Tgpvgebgr 200< fwrhom vlg macbja ihojodhja drhtht(vlg g|dljomg rjvg igaa tljrpax bwv vlgrg }jt oc ogv djphvja cwviac} jppjrgov ho vlg ihmwrgt/Djbjaajrc! Dc}jo! jof Kgjrot ,2006( lxpcvlgth~g vljv tceg dcwovrhgt ljyg gtvjbahtlgfgocwml drgfhbhahvx vljv }lgo vlg g|dljomg rjvg ecygt! hoygtvcrt jrg dcoihfgov vljv vlg rjvg }haargygrv/ Jo javgrojvhyg ,rgajvgf( g|pajojvhco ehmlv bg vljv vlg ojvhcoja jddcwovt hebjajodg agjygtJwtvrjahjo tpgofgrt ho wrmgov oggf ci iwofhom ,vlgrg ht ygrx ahvvag jfnwtvegov ci vlg g|vgrojabjajodg hvtgai(/ Vlgtg bcrrc}grt djo frj} co vlg g|vgothyg rjomg ci hoiac} dljoogat vljv jrgvxphdja ho ejvwrg dcwovrhgt ,rgiagdvgf ho vlg lwmg v}c%}jx mrctt iac}t( vc eggv vlghr iwofhomrgzwhrgegovt/ Hi cog dljooga dactgt cii! cvlgrt jrg jyjhajbag/

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Vlht prgtgovt j pcahdx zwjofjrx icr gegrmhom gdcocehgt/ Vlgx ehmlv acck icr}jrf vc vlg vheg}lgo djphvja iac}t jrg ajrmg jof fhygrthihgf ,}hvl fggp hotvhvwvhcoja ihojodhja hoirjtvrwdvwrg(/Vlgtg dcwovrhgt dcwaf vlgo rgax co bghom jbag vc rgvjho jof jvvrjdv hoiac}t gygo }lgo vlg

Ho dcovrjtv! ho :88= ho Gjtv Jthj

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vj| rgdghpvt vc vlg hoygtvcr dcwovrx! agjyhom vlg hoygtvcr wovj|gf ho vlg rgdhphgov dcwovrx/ Hi vj| ht pjhf ho vlghoygtvcrt dcwovrx ci rgthfgodg! vlgrg ejx bg oc rgtcwrdg ehtfhtvrhbwvhco/ Bwv hv ht dagjr vljv ejox hoygtvcrt wtg vj|ljygot vljv prcbjbax jychf vj| javcmgvlgr ,HEI 20::b(/

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Vlg jhe lgrg ht vc dcoihog vlg vj| vc vljv pjrv ci iac}t }lhdl ht rgtpcofhom ectv fhrgdvax vc vlg hovgrgtv fhiigrgovhja/Vlwt IFH }cwaf bg g|dawfgf/ Icr j rgajvgf jpprcjdl! tgg Kcrhogk ,20:0(/ Vlg fhiigrgodgt bgv}ggo vlht tcrv ci vj|jof jo Worgewogrjvgf Rgtgryg Rgzwhrgegov ,WRR( jrg twbvag ,HEI ,20::d! Bc| pjmg 2


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ihojodhja txtvge ,jv lceg cr jbrcjf( }jt wofgr tgygrg tvrgtt/4

rethinking capital flows for emerging east asia

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