Reversing Land Degradation in Ethiopia: Thoughts on building resilience and sustainable livelihood in Ethiopia.

(Some thoughts for debate and actions)

By Samuel Gebreselassie, Ph.DEthiopian Economics Association and Future Agricultures

Consortium

Presentation at side-event organized by Center for Development Research (ZEF), University of Bonn; International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)during the IFPRI 2020 Resilience conference in Addis Ababa,

May 15-17, 2014, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia1

Outline

• Background• Land degradation in Ethiopia

• Its extent and impact• Its causes and drivers• Efforts undertaken to reverse the trend• Challenges and problems to reverse the trend

– Thoughts for debate and actions

2

Background• Ethiopia is located in the

Eastern Horn of Africa with a total area of 1,126,829 km2 .

• Estimated population is 90 million; about 85% of the population lives in rural areas.

3

Background• In terms of geography, Ethiopia roughly divided into two or

three sections: -– The highlands (1500+ asl)

• comprise 45% of the land area, provide the livelihood of about 80% of Ethiopia’s population.

• high population, high rainfall and sloppy and fragile ecology.• Intensive, century-old semi-subsistence mixed-farm agriculture,

– Lowlands –• 10 to 12 % of the total population reside on 50+% of the country’s area. • pastoral and agro-pastoral areas/communities - largely sedentary

livelihood.

– Rift Valley:

*Because of difference in livelihood as well as ecological factors, the problem of land degradation as well as potential solution vary in these areas. 4

Background• Smallholder agriculture is the dominant sector of

Ethiopian economy, accounts for more than 45% of GDP, 80% of exports, and 80% of total employment

• Livestock is the integral component of the agriculture on which 80% of the population depends.

5

Land Degradation in Ethiopia:• Its extent and impact• Its causes and drivers• Efforts undertaken to reverse the trend• Challenges and problems to reverse the trend

6

Land Degradation in EthiopiaExtent and impact

• Ethiopia is a country, where natural resource degradation has been going on for centuries (Kidane, 2008).

• All forms of land degradation occur in Ethiopia:

• water and wind erosion; •both physical and biological degradation of soils and bio-diversity• salinization (and recently acidification); and

Land degradation on grazinglands, Dembecha, west Gojjam

Farmlands

Gullies in farmlands

7

Other Features of Land degradation in EthiopiaGrazing lands

Communal lands

Acid and termite affected farmlands

Woodlands

Source: Presentation by Melaku Tadesse, SLMP, National Program Coordinator, April 29 – May 1, 2013.Hawassa, Ethiopia8

36

49

3541

49

Malawi Ethiopia Tanzania

Land degradation (soil erosion) and its control in Ethiopia vis-a-vis other countries

Soil erosion (% of plots)Soil eroision control (% of plots where SLM practices undertaken)

Source: Household survey conducted by ZEF

9

Land Degradation in EthiopiaDrivers

• Drivers –at macro/messo level

– High human population growth

– High livestock population -– High, widespread poverty-– Low productivity growth– No/Little structural

transformation,• unable to reduce the

pressure on farming and natural resources use,

• extreme dependence on farming,

– Economic and political malaise for long-period of time ,

– Weak institutions – research, extension and administration

• Some drivers-at Household /messo level factors

– Biophysical characteristics– Topography(+), temp(+),– rainfall (-)

– Demographic characteristics– Sex and education (+), – labor availability (-)

– Plot characteristics– Slope(+), access to market(-)

– Socio-economic characteristics– Plot size, credit (amount), and

household wealth, expenditure =+ve– Credit access, membership to local

organization = -ve(Source: Study by ZEF 10

Land Use Change in Ethiopia 2001-2009

-30.0

-20.0

-10.0

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

Cropland Forest Grassland Shrublands Woodland Barren Water

2001 (Million Ha) 2009 (Million Ha) % Change

Source: calculated based on Nkonya et al. (2014), using MODIS data

Costs of Land Degradation due to LULC

Source: calculated based on Nkonya et al. (2014), using MODIS data

226 215

-11 19 8.8

-10

40

90

140

190

240

TEV 2001(billion USD)

TEV 2009(billion USD)

Change in TEV(billion USD)

GDP 2007(billion USD)

TEV:GDP ratio

Cost of land Degradation = decline in Total Economic Value (TEV) (4.9%)

Land Degradation in EthiopiaEfforts undertaken to reverse the trend

• From the massive food-for-work programmes of the mid 1970s/1980s to the present SLMP (and to less extent PSNP), Ethiopia with massive support from donors and UN agencies has undertaken numerous measures to minimize the damage as well as reverse the trend.

• Recent measures bear relatively better results, because of– Better programs like the SLMP (Sustainable Land Management

Program) create more harmonized approaches (like watershed approach interventions),

– Better/improved• support from bilateral and multi-lateral agencies’• peace and security in the country,• weather/(climatic?) conditions over the past decade,• awareness among farmers (better roads, extension, etc)• grass root level community associations/organisations.

13

Land Degradation in EthiopiaChallenges and problems to reverse the trend or

Still, Given the magnitude of land degradation and the vastness of degraded land as well as other compounding factors, the impacts of conservation works seem comparatively small; and seems unable to break this cycle (at least in most parts of the country)

Effective, sustainable and irreversible outcome can emerge only when the country breaks this cycle at least in most areas of the country.

Problems to reverse the trend and break this cycle

14

•Thoughts for debate, research and actions

15

Land Degradation in EthiopiaThoughts for debate, research and actions

• Relatively we know better the causes, the drivers, the impact as well as the remedies to the problem, but so far efforts made are less effective, less sustainable?

• The country has also long-experience in dealing with problem and the constraints that challenge sustainable progress. – In the context of Ethiopia any real and sustainable

effort to reverse Land Degradation needs more than time-bounded donor funded programs, projects but

• MASTER PLAN16

Why Master plan• Despite the history of thousands year of human

settlement and farming, the problem recognized very lately, in 1970s (after the 1973 massive drought and famine).

• Second, the causes and drivers of land degradation are complex, interactive and self-reinforcing, both across space and time/generations.

• time also play against future interventions and their effectiveness. (As time pass, the dynamics and complexity of the problem intensified and reinforced -due to population growth, poverty effect, climate effect??).

17

Why Master plan......• Efforts made so far are few, far less effective, less

sustainable? – Despite the progress achieved so far, projects/programs

under taken in the country are either • not comparable to the scale of the problem; and • sometimes there is high risk of reversibility of emerged results,

because of – inappropriate programs - address symptoms rather than the root

causes) or – partial interventions – that focus too much on technical solutions to

the relative negligence of policy, institution related factors , or – interventions that lacks consistency and long-term vision/commitment

(partly due to their dependence on donors’ money).

18

What type of master plan?• This presentation doesn’t aim and capable to answer this;

• But the master plan should match with the scale and complexity of the problem;

• It should also not be considered as a one-time ‘blueprint’ but it should be crafted to• provide long-term solutions while addressing short-term or

emerging problems,• be dynamic enough to respond to new findings/research &

realities,• be flexible to deal with and incorporate local/community interest

and capacity,• be led by technocrats with stable institute . 19