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Review of Debt New Issues and Trading First Quarter 2005 Not surprisingly, the Canadian bond market shifted to a slower gear in Q1 2005 following a record pace in the fourth quarter and year. Total bond issuance was $38.5 billion, down 21% quarter-over-quarter and off 14% compared to the same quarter a year ago. Total bond trading slipped to $1.46 trillion in the first quarter, down a mere 1.4% from the robust fourth quarter. On a yearly basis, total bond trading was up 3.4% from 2004. Federal bond trading was almost unchanged in the first quarter at $1.29 trillion, off just 0.7% from the robust fourth quarter and up 3% year-over-year. Government of Canada gross bond issuance was $16.1 billion, unchanged from the fourth quarter. However, Government of Canada issuance was down 5.7% year-over-year. Trading in corporate bonds stood at $64.1 billion, down 3.3% quarter-over-quarter, but up 16.1% compared to the same quarter a year ago. Corporate bond financings totaled $13.5 billion in the first quarter, down 42.9% quarter-over-quarter and off 5.4% year- over-year. Provincial bond issuance stood at $8.7 billion in the first quarter, a decline of 11.4% from the fourth quarter and 31.8% from the same quarter a year ago. Money market trading climbed to $1.24 billion in the first quarter, up 8% quarter-over-quarter and 12% compared to the same quarter in 2004. Debt Markets: Shifting Gears? This Quarter’s Highlights Investment Dealers Association of Canada May 2005

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Page 1: Review of Debt New Issues and Trading First Quarter 2005 · 2012-01-31 · Review of Debt New Issues and Trading First Quarter 2005 Not surprisingly, the Canadian bond market shifted

Review of Debt New Issuesand Trading

First Quarter 2005

� Not surprisingly, the Canadian bond market shifted to a slower

gear in Q1 2005 following a record pace in the fourth quarter

and year. Total bond issuance was $38.5 billion, down 21%

quarter-over-quarter and off 14% compared to the same quarter a

year ago.

� Total bond trading slipped to $1.46 trillion in the fi rst quarter,

down a mere 1.4% from the robust fourth quarter. On a yearly

basis, total bond trading was up 3.4% from 2004.

� Federal bond trading was almost unchanged in the fi rst quarter at

$1.29 trillion, off just 0.7% from the robust fourth quarter and up

3% year-over-year.

� Government of Canada gross bond issuance was $16.1 billion,

unchanged from the fourth quarter. However, Government of

Canada issuance was down 5.7% year-over-year.

� Trading in corporate bonds stood at $64.1 billion, down 3.3%

quarter-over-quarter, but up 16.1% compared to the same quarter

a year ago.

� Corporate bond fi nancings totaled $13.5 billion in the fi rst

quarter, down 42.9% quarter-over-quarter and off 5.4% year-

over-year.

� Provincial bond issuance stood at $8.7 billion in the fi rst quarter,

a decline of 11.4% from the fourth quarter and 31.8% from the

same quarter a year ago.

� Money market trading climbed to $1.24 billion in the fi rst

quarter, up 8% quarter-over-quarter and 12% compared to the

same quarter in 2004.

Debt Markets: Shifting Gears?

This Quarter’s Highlights

Investment Dealers Association of Canada May 2005

Page 2: Review of Debt New Issues and Trading First Quarter 2005 · 2012-01-31 · Review of Debt New Issues and Trading First Quarter 2005 Not surprisingly, the Canadian bond market shifted

Review of Debt New Issues and Trading - 2005 Q1 2

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

2005200420032002200120001999

Canadian and US Short and Long Yield Spreads

Spre

ad (

bps)

Canada-US 3-month T-bill Canada-US 10 Year

Government Bond Yield

No sizzle and no fi zzle. That pretty much captured the tone of the debt market in the fi rst quarter as activity shifted to a slower gear. Indeed, bond issuance scaled back to just $38.5 billion in the fi rst quarter, a decrease of 21% from the fourth quarter and 14% from the same period last year. Debt trading, however, was more upbeat, off only a modest 1.4% from the red hot fourth quarter. Nevertheless, the reduced activity in the fi rst quarter hardly comes as a big surprise. Following on the heels of a record fourth quarter in debt issuance and trading is a hard act to match, let alone beat. However, put into perspective, the fi rst quarter’s slowdown isn’t too worrisome. After all, debt trading and issuance activity continued to remain at or above trend levels.

On the fi nancing front, bond issuance defi nitely took a big step back in the quarter. Federal, provincial, municipal and corporate borrowings were relatively low key, with debt issuance down on a quarterly and yearly basis. Barring the base comparison distortion, debt fi nancings in 2005 may not be as robust as last year despite the still favorable interest rate backdrop. For the corporate sector, Corporate Canada will likely ease into a consolidation mode following a banner year of fi nancings and M&A activity. With corporate balance sheets now in better shape, this could help reduce the need for corporations to issue debt this year. Meanwhile, municipal and provincial fi nancings may also cool in the coming months after some sizeable fi nancing projects last year. Lastly, with the Federal Government sticking to its debt reduction strategy, this should also translate into fewer federal bond fi nancings in the pipeline.

On the trading front, investors remained active in the fi xed income market -- total bond trading was off just 1.4% quarter-over-quarter but up 3.4% from the same period a year ago. While the decline was broad-based, interest remained particularly high in Government of Canada bonds: trading was down a mere 0.7% from the vigorous fourth quarter and up 3.1% from the same quarter a year ago. Corporate bond trading in the fi rst quarter was also slightly lower, down 3.3% quarter-over-quarter but up an impressive 16% from the same quarter last year. In contrast, municipal bonds suffered the steepest setback with trading down 19% quarter-over-quarter and 7% year-over-year.

The Bank of Canada (BoC) isn’t on a monetary tightening path like the Fed – yet. Moderate infl ation and the recent softening in economic data have kept the BoC on the sidelines this quarter and the overnight rate unchanged at a low 2.5%. Canada-US spreads turned negative (-24 bps) for short rates and narrowed further (25 bps) for long rates in the fi rst quarter. The ongoing spread narrowing is clearly refl ective of US rates ramping up at a faster pace than Canadian yields. The difference in monetary policy stances between the Fed and the BoC suggests that the Canadian yield curve may be steeper (less fl at) than the US curve in the near term. However, market expectations for tighter credit conditions are growing, with a possible rate hike by the BoC in the second half of this year.

Q1 2005 Debt Markets: Shifting Gears?

Page 3: Review of Debt New Issues and Trading First Quarter 2005 · 2012-01-31 · Review of Debt New Issues and Trading First Quarter 2005 Not surprisingly, the Canadian bond market shifted

Review of Debt New Issues and Trading - 2005 Q1 3

Historical Short-Term Interest Rates

Bon

d Y

ield

s

(%)

Sp

read

(bp

s)

1 -Month T-bi l l

Source: Bank of Canada

0

2

4

6

8

10

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

20052004200320022001200019991998199719961995

1-Month Corporate 1-Month Spread

Note: 1-Month Corporate = Prime Corporate Paper Rate

Historical Long-Term Interest Rates

Bon

d Y

ield

s

(%)

Sp

read

(bp

s)

Long Term Canadas

Source: Bank of Canada

4

6

8

10

12

0

50

100

150

200

20052004200320022001200019991998199719961995

Long Term Corporates Spread

Notes:

Long-Term Canadas = Government of Canada Marketable Bonds, average yield over 10 years

Long Term Corporates = Average Weighted Yield (Scotia Capital Inc.) - Al l Corporates Long-Term, over 10 yrs

Canadian Interest Rates� In contrast with the Fed’s steady pace of rate hikes, the BoC stood pat in the fi rst quarter. Canada’s overnight rate remained at a mere 2.5%.

� The BoC had little reason to tighten credit conditions in the quarter given the softening economic data and contained infl ationary pressures.

� 2005 kicked off the year with Canadian short rates hardly budging in the quarter. Short spreads remained anchored at 12 bps in the fi rst quarter.

� In contrast with short rates, long rates drifted lower in the quarter. The 10-year government yield fell to 4.75% while Corporates edged down to 5.73%.

Page 4: Review of Debt New Issues and Trading First Quarter 2005 · 2012-01-31 · Review of Debt New Issues and Trading First Quarter 2005 Not surprisingly, the Canadian bond market shifted

Review of Debt New Issues and Trading - 2005 Q1 4

Government of Canada Bonds: Trading and Issuance� Investor interest in Government bonds continued on a high note in 2005. Total trading in Government of Canada and Federal Crown Corporation bonds hit a 7-year high at $1.29 trillion in the fi rst quarter, up 5% quarter-over-quarter and 9% over the same period a year ago.

� Total government debt fi nancings stood at $16.1 billion in the fi rst quarter in 23 issues, unchanged in value from the fourth quarter.

� However, compared with the same period a year ago, total Government bond issuance was down 6% in value, refl ective of the Government’s debt reduction strategy.

0

5

10

15

20

600

900

1200

1500

20052004200320022001200019991998199719961995

Total Quarterly Canada Bond Gross Issuance and Trading

Gro

ss N

ew

Issu

es D

eli

vere

d

($

Bil

lion

s)

Qu

arte

rly T

rad

ing

($ B

illion

s)

Gross Issuance Total Bond Trading

Source: Investment Dealers Associat ion

Quarterly Comparison of Government of Canada Bond IssuanceChange Change Change Change

Quarter

Quarter- Year- Number Quarter- Year-

Value over- over- of over- over-

($ Billions) Quarter Year Issues Quarter Year

Q1/04 $17.1 3% 22% 29 -24% 0%Q2/04 $13.7 -20% -5% 33 14% 6%Q3/04 $14.7 7% -9% 16 -52% -53%Q4/04 $16.1 10% -3% 32 100% -18%Q1/05 $16.1 0% -6% 23 -28% -23%

Source: Investment Dealers Assoc. Note: Government of Canada Direct and Guaranteed Bonds, including Crown Corporations,total Gross New Issues Delivered, par value

Quarterly Comparison of Government of Canada Bond Trading Change Change

Quarter

Quarter- Year-

Value over- over-

($ Billions) Quarter Year

Q1/04 $1,187.0 12% 15%Q2/04 $1,170.9 -1% 0%Q3/04 $1,031.8 -12% -9%Q4/04 $1,229.8 19% 16%Q1/05 $1,288.4 5% 9%

Source: Investment Dealers Assoc. Note: Excludes repos

Page 5: Review of Debt New Issues and Trading First Quarter 2005 · 2012-01-31 · Review of Debt New Issues and Trading First Quarter 2005 Not surprisingly, the Canadian bond market shifted

Review of Debt New Issues and Trading - 2005 Q1 5

0

5

10

15

20

1

2

3

4

5

6

200520042003200220012000

Total Quarterly Canada Real Return Bond Gross Outstandings & Trading

Gro

ss N

ew

Issu

es D

eli

vere

d

($

Bil

lion

s)

Qu

arte

rly T

rad

ing

($ B

illion

s)

Total Outstandings Total Bond Trading

Source: Investment Dealers Associat ion

Quarterly Comparison of Government of Canada Real Return Bonds Trading Change Change

Quarter

Quarter- Year-

Value over- over-

($ Billions) Quarter Year

Q1/04 $5.2 13% -13%Q2/04 $4.8 -7% -3%Q3/04 $3.3 -31% -9%Q4/04 $4.0 22% -13%Q1/05 $4.2 4% -19%

Source: Investment Dealers Assoc.

Quarterly Comparison of Government of Canada Real Return Bonds Total OutstandingChange Change

Quarter

Quarter- Year-

Value over- over-

($ Billions)

Quarter Year

Q1/04 $17.6 1.7% 8.6%Q2/04 $18.0 2.3% 8.4%Q3/04 $18.3 1.7% 8.3%Q4/04 $18.7 2.2% 8.1%Q1/05 $19.0 1.6% 7.9%

Source: Investment Dealers Assoc.

Government of Canada Real Return Bonds: Trading and Total Outstanding� Trading in Canada Real Return bonds (RRBs) stood at $4.2 billion in the fi rst quarter, up 4% quarter-over-quarter, but down 19% compared to the same period in 2004.

� Meanwhile, the Government’s outstanding stock of RRBs ballooned to $19.0 billion in the fi rst quarter, up 1.6% quarter-over-quarter and 7.9% compared to the same quarter a year ago.

Page 6: Review of Debt New Issues and Trading First Quarter 2005 · 2012-01-31 · Review of Debt New Issues and Trading First Quarter 2005 Not surprisingly, the Canadian bond market shifted

Review of Debt New Issues and Trading - 2005 Q1 6

0

3

6

9

12

15

40

60

80

100

120

20052004200320022001200019991998199719961995

Total Quarterly Provincial Bond Gross Issuance & Trading

Gro

ss N

ew

Issu

es D

eli

vere

d

($

Bil

lion

s)

Q

uarte

rly T

rad

ing

($ B

illion

s)

Gross Issuance Total Bond Trading

Source: Investment Dealers Associat ion

Provincial Bonds: Trading and Issuance� The popularity of provincial bonds from last year extended into 2005 with trading at a lofty $105.3 billion in the fi rst quarter. While trading was down 7% from the peak fourth quarter, activity was up 1% from the same quarter a year ago and well above the $99 billion quarterly average in 2004.

� Provincial bond fi nancings fell back to $8.7 billion in 56 issues, off 11% quarter-over-quarter in value and down 32% from the same quarter a year ago.

� Meanwhile, Ontario was the largest provincial issuer in the quarter. The largest single deal came from the Ontario Strategic Infrastructure Financing Authority with a $650 million issue.

Quarterly Comparison of Provincial Bond Trading Change Change

Quarter

Quarter- Year-

Value over- over-

($ Billions)Quarter Year

Q1/04 $104.0 22% 12%Q2/04 $93.5 -10% 5%Q3/04 $86.5 -8% 34%Q4/04 $113.6 31% 34%Q1/05 $105.3 -7% 1%

Source: Investment Dealers Assoc.

Note: Excludes repos

Quarterly Comparison of Provincial Bond IssuanceChange Change Change Change

Quarter

Value Quarter- Year- Number Quarter- Year-

($ Billions) over- over- of over- over-

Quarter Year Issues Quarter Year

Q1/04 $12.7 41% 132% 85 6% 29%Q2/04 $9.3 -27% 54% 90 6% 109%Q3/04 $8.2 -12% 37% 49 -46% -25%Q4/04 $9.8 19% 8% 70 43% -13%Q1/05 $8.7 -11% -32% 56 -20% -34%

Source: Investment Dealers Assoc. Note: Total Gross New Issues Delivered, including Crown Corporations, par value

Page 7: Review of Debt New Issues and Trading First Quarter 2005 · 2012-01-31 · Review of Debt New Issues and Trading First Quarter 2005 Not surprisingly, the Canadian bond market shifted

Review of Debt New Issues and Trading - 2005 Q1 7

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

1

2

3

4

5

20052004200320022001200019991998199719961995

Total Quarterly Municipal Bond Gross Issuance & Trading

Gro

ss N

ew

Issu

es D

eli

vere

d

($

Bil

lion

s)

Qu

arte

rly T

rad

ing

($ B

illion

s)

Gross Issuance Total Bond Trading

Source: Investment Dealers Associat ion

Municipal Bonds: Trading and Issuance� The municipal bond market got off to a rough start in 2005. Trading in municipal bonds tapered off in the fi rst quarter to $2.9 billion, down 19% quarter-over-quarter and 6% from the same quarter in 2004.

� Municipal fi nancings also cooled in the period. Financings in the fi rst quarter totaled a meager $0.23 billion, down 86% quarter-over-quarter and 70% compared to the same quarter in 2004.

� With only 44 municipal issues – less than half of the fourth quarter last year -- this was the lowest number of deals on record since 1996.

Quarterly Comparison of Municipal Bond Trading Change Change

Quarter

Quarter- Year-

Value over- over-

($ Billions) Quarter Year

Q1/04 $3.1 -32% 31%Q2/04 $2.9 -6% -30%Q3/04 $2.4 -17% -28%Q4/04 $3.6 49% -21%Q1/05 $2.9 -19% -6%

Source: Investment Dealers Assoc.

Note: Excludes repos

Quarterly Comparison of Municipal Bond IssuanceChange Change Change Change

Quarter

Quarter- Year- Number Quarter- Year-

Value over- over- of over- over-

($ Billions) Quarter Year Issues Quarter Year

Q1/04 $0.8 -49% 29% 72 -37% 36%Q2/04 $0.6 -15% -70% 51 -29% -24%Q3/04 $0.9 39% -23% 67 31% -4%Q4/04 $1.7 86% 12% 112 67% -3%Q1/05 $0.2 -86% -70% 44 -61% -39%

Source: Investment Dealers Assoc. Note: Total Gross New Issues Delivered, par value

Page 8: Review of Debt New Issues and Trading First Quarter 2005 · 2012-01-31 · Review of Debt New Issues and Trading First Quarter 2005 Not surprisingly, the Canadian bond market shifted

Review of Debt New Issues and Trading - 2005 Q1 8

0

5

10

15

20

25

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

20052004200320022001200019991998199719961995

Total Quarterly Corporate Bond Gross Issuance & Trading

Gro

ss N

ew

Issu

es D

eli

vere

d

($

Bil

lion

s)

Qu

arte

rly T

rad

ing

($ B

illion

s)

Gross Issuance Total Bond Trading

Source: Investment Dealers Associat ion

Corporate Bonds: Trading and Issuance� Investor interest in corporate bonds remained high with total trading at $33.2 billion in the fi rst quarter -- down 7% from the peak fourth quarter, but up 4% over the same period a year ago.

� First quarter corporate fi nancings dipped to just $13.5 billion in 76 issues, down 43% quarter-over- quarter in value and off 5% from the same period in 2004.

� While fi nancings this quarter have slowed substantially from the peak fourth quarter, activity was still above the $11.7 billion quarterly average posted during 2001-2004.

Quarterly Comparison of Corporate Bond IssuanceChange Change Change Change

Quarter

Quarter- Year- Number Quarter- Year-

Value over- over- of over- over-

($ Billions) Quarter Year Issues Quarter Year

Q1/04 $14.3 -3% 20% 95 13% 51%Q2/04 $12.7 -11% -2% 86 -9% 4%Q3/04 $11.3 -11% -14% 82 -5% -13%Q4/04 $23.7 110% 60% 150 83% 79%Q1/05 $13.5 -43% -5% 76 -49% -20%

Source: Investment Dealers Assoc. Note: Issuance data: Total Gross New Issues Delivered, par value

Quarterly Comparison of Corporate Bond Trading Change Change

Quarter

Quarter- Year-

Value over- over-

($ Billions) Quarter Year

Q1/04 $32.0 -6% -4%Q2/04 $25.9 -19% -29%Q3/04 $28.6 11% -1%Q4/04 $35.8 25% 5%Q1/05 $33.2 -7% 4%

Source: Investment Dealers Assoc.

Note: Trading data excludes repos

Page 9: Review of Debt New Issues and Trading First Quarter 2005 · 2012-01-31 · Review of Debt New Issues and Trading First Quarter 2005 Not surprisingly, the Canadian bond market shifted

Review of Debt New Issues and Trading - 2005 Q1 9

CORPORATE BOND ISSUANCE (Q1/05)SECTOR BREAKDOWN

34

1 MANUFACTURING (HIGH TECH) 0%

2 MANUFACTURING (OTHER) 0.6%

3 SERVICES 5.7%

4 RESOURCES 1.9%

5 UTILITIES 13.8%

5

6 FINANCIAL & REAL ESTATE 72.8%

7 OTHER 5.2% 6

7

SOURCE: Investment Dealers Association

2

CORPORATE BOND ISSUANCE (Q1/04)SECTOR BREAKDOWN

2

4

1 MANUFACTURING (HIGH TECH) 0%

2 MANUFACTURING (OTHER) 0.1%

3 SERVICES 11.8%

4 RESOURCES 2.5%

5 UTILITIES 8.6%

5

6 FINANCIAL & REAL ESTATE 59.1%

7 OTHER 18%6

7

SOURCE: Investment Dealers Association

3

Sector Breakdown of Corporate Bond Issues

Top Corporate Bond Issues for Q1 2005: 8 Over $500 Million

Issuer Sector% Total Issuance

Value

Value

($ millions)

Bank of Nova Scotia Financial & Real Estate $1,000.0 7.4%Genesis Trust Financial & Real Estate $1,000.0 7.4%Bell Canada Utilities $700.0 5.2%GE Capital Canada Funding Co Financial & Real Estate $600.0 4.4%CIBC Financial & Real Estate $580.0 4.3%Bank of Montreal Financial & Real Estate $500.0 3.7%CARDS II Trust Other $500.0 3.7%Genesis Trust Financial & Real Estate $500.0 3.7%

Total $5,380.0 39.8%

Page 10: Review of Debt New Issues and Trading First Quarter 2005 · 2012-01-31 · Review of Debt New Issues and Trading First Quarter 2005 Not surprisingly, the Canadian bond market shifted

Review of Debt New Issues and Trading - 2005 Q1 10

Utilities Financial & Real Estate

Other

Quarter Value Number Value Number Value Number($ Millions) of Issues ($ Millions) of Issues ($ Millions) of Issues

Q1/04 $1,080.0 4 $8,230.2 57 $2,568.9 19Q2/04 $674.0 5 $9,127.4 57 $812.7 12Q3/04 $605.0 6 $8,043.4 53 $1,488.8 11Q4/04 $1,832.2 12 $13,528.8 77 $2,988.7 27Q1/05 $1,862.0 9 $9,845.1 49 $707.0 8

Notes:1. Highest sector issuance value bolded for each quarter2. Services sector includes: High Tech Services and Other Services3. Resources sector includes: Forestry, Mining and Oil & GasSource: Investment Dealers Assoc.

Quarterly Comparison of Corporate Bond Issuance by Sector ($ Millions)Manufacturing High

TechManufacturing Other Services Resources

Quarter Value Number Value Number Value Number Value Number($ Millions) of Issues ($ Millions) of Issues ($ Millions) of Issues ($ Millions) of Issues

Q1/04 $0.0 0 $8.0 1 $1,686.5 8 $355.0 4Q2/04 $0.0 0 $50.0 1 $1,605.0 7 $435.0 4Q3/04 $0.0 0 $415.0 5 $400.0 2 $323.0 5Q4/04 $12.8 1 $302.0 5 $2,449.9 10 $295.0 3Q1/05 $0.0 0 $82.5 2 $764.9 4 $260.0 4

� The fi nancial sector dominated the fi nancing scene with over 70% of the total corporate bond issuance in the fi rst quarter. Trailing behind in a distant second spot is the utilities sector with 13.8% of total issuance.

� A pair of $1 billion issues from the Bank of Nova Scotia and Genesis Trust and a $700 million deal from Bell Canada helped buoy total corporate bond fi nancings to $5.38 billion in the fi rst quarter.

Page 11: Review of Debt New Issues and Trading First Quarter 2005 · 2012-01-31 · Review of Debt New Issues and Trading First Quarter 2005 Not surprisingly, the Canadian bond market shifted

Review of Debt New Issues and Trading - 2005 Q1 11

0

2

4

6

8

10

20052004200320022001200019991998

Quarterly Issuance of Medium Term Notes

Gro

ss N

ew

Issu

es D

eli

vere

d

($

Bil

lion

s)

Corporate Government

Source: Investment Dealers Associat ion

Medium Term Notes: Issuance� 2005 started the year with Corporates regaining the lead from Governments in MTN issuance. Corporate MTN issuance shot back up to $6.4 billion in the fi rst quarter, an impressive gain of 78% quarter-over-quarter and 5% increase over the same period a year ago.

� MTN government fi nancings totaled $6.1 billion in the fi rst quarter, an increase of 23% quarter- over-quarter. However, compared to the same quarter a year ago, MTN government fi nancings are off 15% in value.

� Despite the increase in value for both Corporates and Government MTNs, there were fewer deals this quarter. Government issues were off 13% quarter-over-quarter while Corporates were down 38% quarter-over-quarter.Quarterly Comparison of Medium Term Note Issuance: Government

Change Change Change Change

Quarter

Quarter- Year- Number Quarter- Year-

Value over- over- of over- over-

($ Billions) Quarter Year Issues Quarter Year

Q1/04 $7.2 39% 119% 73 -3% 20%Q2/04 $4.4 -39% 18% 84 15% 91%Q3/04 $4.1 -6% 19% 39 -54% -45%Q4/04 $5.0 21% -3% 63 62% -16%Q1/05 $6.1 23% -15% 55 -13% -25%

Source: Investment Dealers Assoc.

Quarterly Comparison of Medium Term Note Issuance: CorporateChange Change Change Change

Quarter

Quarter- Year- Number Quarter- Year-

Value over- over- of over- over-

($ Billions) Quarter Year Issues Quarter Year

Q1/04 $6.1 -2% -25% 41 86% 14%Q2/04 $8.4 37% 18% 29 -29% -3%Q3/04 $3.7 -55% -44% 31 7% 0%Q4/04 $3.6 -5% -42% 47 52% 114%Q1/05 $6.4 78% 5% 29 -38% -29%

Source: Investment Dealers Assoc.

Page 12: Review of Debt New Issues and Trading First Quarter 2005 · 2012-01-31 · Review of Debt New Issues and Trading First Quarter 2005 Not surprisingly, the Canadian bond market shifted

Review of Debt New Issues and Trading - 2005 Q1 12

0

5

10

15

20

20052004200320022001

Quarterly Strip Bond Trading

Qu

art

erl

y T

rad

ing

($ B

illi

on

s)

P rovincial Str ip Bond Trading

Government of Canada Str ip Bond Trading

Source: Investment Dealers Associat ion

Quarterly Comparison of Canadian Strip Bond Trading Government of Canada Strip

Bonds Provincial Strip Bonds Total Strip Bonds

Quarter

Change Change Change Change Change Change

Quarter- Year- Quarter- Year- Quarter- Year-

Value over- over- Value over- over- Value over- over-

($ Billions) Quarter Year ($ Billions) Quarter Year ($ Billions) Quarter Year

Q1/04 $8.6 -37% 4% $18.7 7% 12% $28.4 -13% 9%Q2/04 $17.7 105% 8% $18.9 1% 9% $37.9 34% 10%Q3/04 $10.2 -43% 11% $12.3 -35% -6% $24.1 -36% 4%Q4/04 $13.2 30% -3% $16.8 37% -4% $31.7 32% -2%Q1/05 $11.4 -14% 32% $15.3 -9% -18% $28.1 -11% -1%

Source: Investment Dealers Assoc. Note: Trading data excludes repos, Components will not add to total as Corporate Strips are not reported

Strip Bonds: Trading� Strip bond trading totaled $28.1 billion in the fi rst quarter, down 11% quarter-over-quarter and 1% from the same quarter in 2004.

� Demand for both provincial and Government of Canada eased in the fi rst quarter -- trading in provincials was down 14% and off 9% in Governments from the fourth quarter.

Page 13: Review of Debt New Issues and Trading First Quarter 2005 · 2012-01-31 · Review of Debt New Issues and Trading First Quarter 2005 Not surprisingly, the Canadian bond market shifted

Review of Debt New Issues and Trading - 2005 Q1 13

Money Market Trading (Quarterly Totals)

BA

's &

Com

merc

ial

Pap

er

Tra

din

g

($

Bil

lion

s)

T-b

ills T

rad

ing

($ B

illion

s)

Commercial Paper

Source: Investment Dealers Associat ion

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

20052004200320022001200019991998199719961995

Bankers ' Acceptance Government of

Canada T-Bil ls

Quarterly Comparison of Canadian Money Market Trading

Government of Canada T-Bills Bankers’ Acceptances (BA’s)Corporate and Finance Company

(Commercial) Paper

Quarter

Change Change Change Change Change Change

Quarter- Year- Quarter- Year- Quarter- Year-

Value over- over- Value over- over- Value over- over-

($ Billions) Quarter Year ($ Billions) Quarter Year ($ Billions) Quarter Year

Q1/04 $344.4 -1% 23% $286.0 -6% -7% $481.9 -8% -5%Q2/04 $335.1 -3% 17% $247.9 -13% -19% $471.0 -2% -7%Q3/04 $346.9 3% 12% $246.7 0% -10% $481.1 2% -3%Q4/04 $337.3 -3% -3% $260.2 5% -14% $551.2 15% 6%Q1/05 $344.9 2% 0% $305.9 18% 7% $589.8 7% 22%

Source: Investment Dealers Assoc. Note: Trading data excludes repos

Money Market: Trading� Money market trading continued on a strong note in the fi rst quarter. Total trading climbed to $1.24 billion in the fi rst quarter, up 8% quarter-over-quarter and 12% from the same quarter in 2004.

� Trading in commercial paper reached $590 million in the fi rst quarter, up 7% quarter-over-quarter and 22% from the same quarter a year ago. Commercial paper accounted for almost half of the total money market trading in the period.

� Meanwhile, Government of Canada T-bill trading edged up to $344.9 billion in the quarter, up 2% over the fourth quarter and fl at from the same period a year ago. Trading activity also increased for BA’s in the fi rst quarter which reached $305.9 billion, a gain of 18% quarter-over-quarter and 7% year-over-year.

Page 14: Review of Debt New Issues and Trading First Quarter 2005 · 2012-01-31 · Review of Debt New Issues and Trading First Quarter 2005 Not surprisingly, the Canadian bond market shifted

Review of Debt New Issues and Trading - 2005 Q1 14

Summary of Bond Trading and Issuance

($ billions except where indicated otherwise)

Q4 2004

Q1

05/Q4 04%

change Q1 2004

2002 2001

Q1 05/Q1 04 2004 2003 2004/2003

Q1 2005 % change % change

Government of Canada Bonds*Trading $1,288.4 $1,297.4 -0.7% $1,250.0 3.1% $4,852.4 $4,545.7 6.7% 3,790.0 3,784.3Issuance $16.1 $16.1 0.1% $17.1 -5.7% $61.5 $61.1 0.7% 61.4 47.7

Provincial Bonds Trading $105.3 $113.6 -7.3% $104.0 1.3% $397.6 $331.8 19.8% 319.9 313Issuance $8.7 $9.8 -11.4% $12.7 -31.8% $39.9 $26.6 50.0% 20 19

Municipal Bonds Trading $2.9 $3.6 -19.4% $3.1 -6.5% $12.0 $14.2 -15.5% 11.1 11.3Issuance $0.2 $1.7 -86.1% $0.8 -69.5% $3.8 $5.4 -29.6% 4 3.1

Corporate Bonds** Trading $64.1 $66.3 -3.3% $55.2 16.1% $225.0 $219.0 2.7% 127 101.9Issuance $13.5 $23.7 -42.9% $14.3 -5.4% $59.5 $54.2 9.8% 32.4 39.8

Total Bonds Trading $1,460.7 $1,480.9 -1.4% $1,412.3 3.4% $5,487.0 $5,110.7 7.4% 4,248.1 4,210.5Issuance $38.5 $48.9 -21.2% $44.8 -14.1% $164.9 $147.2 12.0% 117.8 109.6

Note: Trading data excludes repos * Includes Government of Canada Bonds and Federal Crown Corporation Bonds**Includes Corporate Bonds, Commercial Paper, Asset-Backed Securities and Other Domestic BondsSource: Investment Dealers Assoc.

Page 15: Review of Debt New Issues and Trading First Quarter 2005 · 2012-01-31 · Review of Debt New Issues and Trading First Quarter 2005 Not surprisingly, the Canadian bond market shifted

The Investment Dealers Association of Canada is the national self-regulatory organization and representative of the securities industry. The Association’s mission is to protect investors and enhance the effi ciency and competitiveness of the Canadian capital markets.

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MONTRÉALBureau 28021 Place Ville MarieMontréal, QuébecH3B 4R4Tel.: (514) 878-2854Fax: (514) 878-3860

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Jon CockerlineDirector, Capital [email protected]

Sherry HumResearch Analyst, Capital [email protected]