review of general fund revenues and the virggyinia...

August 27, 2015

Review of General Fund Revenues and the Virginia Economy g y

for Fiscal Year 2015

A presentation to the Senate Finance, House Appropriations, and House Finance Committees

Richard D. BrownRichard D. BrownSecretary of Finance

Overview…

Fiscal Year 2015 Year-in-Review

• Economic Performance

• Actual General Fund Collections

• Actual Commonwealth Transportation Fund Collections• Actual Commonwealth Transportation Fund Collections

• Financial Results Balance Sheet

• Revenue Stabilization Fund BalanceRevenue Stabilization Fund Balance

Next Steps

• July 2015 General Fund Collections

• Fall Forecasting Process

1

In Fiscal Year 2015, The U.S. Economy Performed Near Expectations, While Virginia’s Economic Performance isVirginia s Economic Performance is Expected to Show Improvement Over Fiscal Year 2014…

• As measured on a fiscal year basis (July through June), estimated real GDP nationally increased 2.6 percent, slightly above the forecast.

Summary of Key U.S. and Virginia Economic IndicatorsPercent Change Over the Prior Fiscal Year

FY14 Actual

FY15 Forecast

FY15 Actual

U SU.S.

Real GDP 2.5 2.5 2.6

Consumer Spending 2.4 2.4 2.9

Employment 1.8 1.9 2.2

Personal Income 2.6 4.5 4.4

& S 3 0 9Wages & Salaries 3.4 5.0 4.9

Virginia


Professional/Business (1.2) 0.8 0.4

Construction/Mining (0 8) 2 1 1 9 Construction/Mining (0.8) 2.1 1.9

Education/Health 2.4 1.4 1.6

Government (0.1) 0.1 0.3

Personal Income* 1.4 3.7 tbdWages & Salaries* 0.9 3.4 tbd

2

* FY15 Actual data will be provided during the fall forecasting process.

Excluding Transfers, Fiscal Year 2015 General Fund Revenues Grew 8.1 Percent and Finished $549.6 Million (3.2 Percent)and Finished $549.6 Million (3.2 Percent) Above Forecast…

Summary of Fiscal Year 2015 Revenue Collections(millions of dollars)

Major Sources Official Change

Withholding $10,903.9 $11,044.3 $140.4 4.0 % 5.3

Nonwithholding 2,725.2 3,041.6 316.4 7.9 20.5

Refunds (1 812 8) (1 757 3) 55 5 3 2 0 1

Actual Official Actual% Growth Over FY 14

Refunds (1,812.8) (1,757.3) 55.5 3.2 0.1

Net Individual $11,816.3 $12,328.7 $512.4 5.0 % 9.6 %

Sales $3,217.8 $3,235.4 $17.6 4.9 % 5.5 %

Corporate 840.9 831.9 (9.0) 11.0 9.8

Wills (Recordation) 318 3 346 3 28 0 2 4 11 4Wills (Recordation) 318.3 346.3 28.0 2.4 11.4

Insurance 320.5 300.6 (19.9) 0.0 (6.2)

All Other Revenue 672.2 692.7 20.5 (4.4) (1.5)

Total Revenue $17,186.0 $17,735.6 $549.6 4.7 % 8.1 %

A B C Profits $83 3 $83 3 $0 0 15 3 % 15 3 %A.B.C. Profits $83.3 $83.3 $0.0 15.3 % 15.3 %

Sales Tax (0.375%) 350.3 352.4 2.1 4.9 5.5

Transfers 211.4 198.2 (13.2) 60.8 50.7

Total Transfers $645.0 $633.9 ($11.1) 19.9 % 17.9 %

• Over 90 percent of the surplus was attributable to net individual income taxes.

TOTAL GENERAL FUND $17,831.0 $18,369.5 $538.5 5.2 % 8.4 %

• Recordation and sales tax collections also contributed to the strong fiscal year 2015 performance.

3

The Second Half of Fiscal Year 2015 Was Noticeably Stronger Than the First Half…

20%

22%

Growth in Total General Fund Revenue CollectionsFY15 Monthly and Year-to-Date

14.1%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

7.7%6.7% 6.1% 5.2%

6.8%5.3%

6.6%7.1% 7.5%

7.3%8.1%

4%

6%

8%

10%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Monthly Year-to-Date

Monthly

Growth: 14 1% 1 7% 5 3% 4 4% 1 0% 13 1% 1 1% 21 7% 11 8% 10 2% 5 8% 13 6%

Forecast: 4.7%

• Total general fund revenue collections exceeded the forecast by $549.6 million, excluding transfers in fiscal year 2015, a forecast variance of 3.2 percent.

Growth: 14.1% 1.7% 5.3% 4.4% 1.0% 13.1% -1.1% 21.7% 11.8% 10.2% 5.8% 13.6%

• Total general fund revenue collections rose 8.1 percent, ahead of the revised annual forecast of 4.7 percent growth.

4

Payroll Withholding Tax Collections Exceeded The Annual Estimate By $140.4 Milli (1 3 P t) I Fi l Y 2015Million (1.3 Percent) In Fiscal Year 2015…

16%

Growth in Withholding Tax CollectionsFY15 Monthly and Year-to-Date

8.9%

6.3%6 2%

8%

10%

12%

14%

5.3% 5.5%4.2%

6.2%

4.2% 4.2%4.9%

4.7% 4.6%5.3%

0%

2%

4%

6%

Forecast: 4.0%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%



Monthly

• Collections of payroll withholding taxes, 63 percent of total general fund revenues, grew 5.3 percent, above the revised

l ti t f 4 0 t Thi i i ifi tl i d

Growth: 8.9% 1.7% 8.3% 3.4% -1.2% 15.1% -5.3% 3.5% 10.3% 3.5% 3.5% 13.5%

annual estimate of 4.0 percent. This is significantly improved from the past two fiscal years, which grew 2.1 and 2.3 percent respectively.

• Both employment and wage and salary gains are the drivers

5

Both employment and wage and salary gains are the drivers of this source.

The Acceleration in Withholding was Broad-Based and Included Strong Growth in Small gBusinesses…

Withholding Tax CollectionsFiscal Years 2013 - 2015

Millions of Dollars

# of FirmsIndustry (% of Total $ Amount in FY14) in FY14 Y FY14 FY15 FY13 FY14 FY15

Millions of Dollars Percent ChangeIndustry (% of Total $ Amount in FY14) in FY14 Y FY14 FY15 FY13 FY14 FY15Public Sector (18%) 93 $1,888.6 $1,961.9 2.4% 0.7% 3.9%Education and Health Services (7%) 244 $772.9 $805.7 1.0% 2.0% 4.2%Federal Contractors (4%) 192 $451.7 $439.9 -2.2% -7.1% -2.6%Finance (3%) 134 $306.6 $325.2 9.1% 4.0% 6.1%Professional and Business Services (3%) 538 $288.1 $297.0 9.1% 1.2% 3.1%Investment (2%) 148 $179.0 $205.2 18.2% 12.2% 14.6%Manufacturing (1%) 174 $157 3 $154 5 4 4% 10 7% -1 8%Manufacturing (1%) 174 $157.3 $154.5 4.4% 10.7% 1.8%Transportation (1%) 41 $113.9 $115.7 5.7% 4.6% 1.6%Energy (1%) 47 $86.2 $88.4 -12.3% 2.2% 2.5%Other (4%) 720 $464.1 $481.5 0.4% -1.6% 3.7%

Total Large Payers (44%) 2,331 $4,708.6 $4,875.0 2.5% 0.9% 3.5%Total Small Payers (56%) 242,267 $5,775.6 $6,169.3 1.8% 3.4% 6.8%Total All 244,598 $10,484.2 $11,044.3 2.1% 2.3% 5.3%

6

, $ , $ ,

Individual Income Tax Nonwithholding Collections Were $316.4 (11.6 Percent) Ahead of The Annual Estimate In FiscalAhead of The Annual Estimate In Fiscal Year 2015…

Growth in Estimated and Final Payments, FY95-15Percent Growth Over the Prior Year

60%

30%

40%

50%

60%

0%

10%

20%

40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

Estimated Payments

Final Payments

• Collections of nonwithholding, 16 percent of total revenues and one of the most volatile revenue sources, exceeded expectations due to strong gains in non-wage sources of

-40%95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

p g g gincome.

• Total nonwithholding collections grew 20.5 percent in fiscal year 2015 compared with the annual estimate of 7.9 percent growthgrowth.

• Final payments increased 25.1 percent compared to the forecast of 6.5 percent.

7

Total Sales Tax Collections Exceeded The Annual Estimate By $17.6 Million (0 5 P t) I Fi l Y 2015(0.5 Percent) In Fiscal Year 2015…

18%

Growth in Sales Tax Collections FY15 Monthly and Year-to-Date

12%

14%

16%

6.4%5.3%

8%

10%

12%

Forecast: 4.9%

4.6%3.8% 3.9%

3.0%

4.4%4.4%

4.0%4.2%

3.9%

5.5%

2%

4%

6%

-2%

0%



Monthly

Growth: 6.4% 4.5% 3.5% 1.8% 4.1% -1.0% 11.2% 4.2% 0.8% 5.9% 1.2% 16.1%

• On a year-to-date basis, collections increased 5.5 percent, ahead of the annual estimate of 4.9 percent growth.

– Adjusting for AST and HB2313, sales tax collections increased 4.9 percent through June, about 1 percent above the economic-

8

base forecast of a 3.9 percent increase.

The Recovering Housing Market Was a Significant Contributor to Sales Tax Growth…Significant Contributor to Sales Tax Growth…

Sales Tax CollectionsFiscal Years 2013 - 2015

Millions of Dollars

# of Firms

Industry (% of Total $ Amount) in FY14 FY14 FY15 FY13 FY14 FY15

Housing (15%) 177 $466.2 $492.9 5.5% 4.4% 5.7%

$ $

Millions of Dollars Percent Change

Warehouse Clubs/Supercenters (12%) 6 $398.2 $413.1 3.7% ‐1.6% 3.7%

Department Stores (11%) 126 $357.8 $360.3 0.1% ‐0.4% 0.7%

Grocery Stores (10%) 23 $322.6 $324.7 4.3% 0.0% 0.7%

Retail Trade (9%) 112 $292.0 $299.2 2.7% 2.7% 2.5%

Restaurants (5%) 90 $154.6 $159.5 4.1% 6.2% 3.2%

Wholesale Trade (2%) 78 $71.9 $74.1 12.1% 5.5% 3.0%

Leisure and Hospitality (2%) 63 $46.4 $52.9 17.4% 10.7% 13.9%

Gasoline Stations (1%) 18 $45.7 $48.1 ‐3.5% ‐8.4% 5.4%Gasoline Stations (1%) 18 $45.7 $48.1 3.5% 8.4% 5.4%

Other (5%) 369 $150.1 $152.1 ‐0.9% ‐11.4% 1.3%

Total Large Payers (71%) 1,062 $2,305.4 $2,377.0 3.4% 0.6% 3.1%

Total 143 598 $3 211 5 $3 368 8 2 0% 0 8% 4 9%

• Housing, Warehouse Clubs/Supercenters, Leisure and Hospitality, and Gasoline Stations posted strong gains in Fiscal Year 2015.

Total 143,598 $3,211.5 $3,368.8 2.0% 0.8% 4.9%

• Department Stores and Grocery Stores posted the weakest gains in Fiscal Year 2015.

9

Other Revenue Sources Were Mixed Relative To Their Respective Forecasts In Fi l Y 2015Fiscal Year 2015…

Corporate Income Tax

• Corporate income tax collections fell short of its forecast by $9.0 million (-1.1 percent).

Wills, Suits, Deeds, and Contracts (Recordation Tax)

• Wills, Suits, Deeds, and Contracts (primarily recordation tax collections) finished $28.0 million ahead of the annual forecast (8.8 percent).

– A recovering housing market drove the growth in recordation tax receipts. Double digit growth has occurred for the last 8 months.

Insurance Premiums Tax

• Insurance premiums tax collections fell short of the annual estimate by $19.9 million (-6.2 percent).• A significant portion was due to prior year Historic

Rehab Tax Credit refunds.

All Other Revenues

• All Other Revenues finished $20.5 million ahead of

10

expectations (3.0 percent variance).– The surplus was primarily due to miscellaneous taxes

and penalties.

Commonwealth Transportation Fund (CTF) Revenues Finished Fiscal Year 2015$50 1 Milli Ah d f th Offi i l E ti t$50.1 Million Ahead of the Official Estimate…

Summary of Fiscal Year 2015 Revenue CollectionsCommonwealth Transportation Fund

(millions of dollars)( )

Actual Collections Compared to the Official Forecast for Fiscal Year 2015(Millions of Dollars)

Percent Change

FY2014 FY2015 FY2015 2014-2015 Forecast Variance

Revenue Sources Actual Actual Forecast Actual Forecast Amount PercentRevenue Sources Actual Actual Forecast Actual Forecast Amount Percent

Motor Fuels Tax 649.7 715.1 $712.1 10.1% 9.6% $3.0 0.4%

Road Use Tax 8.6 5.7 8.5 (33.7) (1.2) -2.8 -32.9

Vehicle Sales Tax 788.6 854.5 814.2 8.4 3.2 40.3 4.9

V hi l Li 249 3 245 1 245 6 (1 7) (1 5) 0 5 0 2Vehicle Licenses 249.3 245.1 245.6 (1.7) (1.5) -0.5 -0.2

State Sales Tax 822.6 994.9 991.1 20.9 20.5 3.8 0.4

Recordation Tax 37.3 42.0 37.9 12.6 1.6 4.1 10.8

Insurance Premiums Tax 130.8 150.4 150.4 15.0 15.0 0.0 0.0

I t'l R i t ti Pl 59 6 66 0 60 2 10 7 1 0 5 8 9 6Int'l Registration Plan 59.6 66.0 60.2 10.7 1.0 5.8 9.6

Interest Earnings 7.2 7.5 14.3 4.2 98.6 -6.8 -47.6

Rental Tax 33.3 35.9 35.1 7.8 5.4 0.8 2.3

Aviation Fuels Tax 2.0 1.8 2.0 (10.0) 0.0 -0.2 -10.0

Miscellaneous 17 3 18 3 15 7 5 8 (9 2) 2 6 16 6

• Total revenue growth was ahead of target with a 1.6 percent forecast variance.

Miscellaneous 17.3 18.3 15.7 5.8 (9.2) 2.6 16.6

TOTAL $2,806.3 $3,137.2 $3,087.1 11.8% 10.0% $50.1 1.6%

11

– The forecast variance was due to stronger than expected motor vehicle sales tax collections.

Take Away: The Fiscal Year 2015 General Fund Revenue Surplus Is Already Obligated by Law and Is Not Available for Otherby Law and Is Not Available for Other Spending…

Major Sources and Uses of the

Fiscal Year 2015 General Fund Surplus

Sources

Revenue collections above the official forecast 549.6$

Transfers to General Fund (actual vs. forecast) (11.1)

Fiscal Year 2015 General Fund Surplus$ in Millions

( ) ( )Withdrawal from Revenue Stabilization Fund (actual vs budget)a (2.3)

Net New General Fund Resources (# in Governor's Speech) 536.2$ Natural Disaster Reserve (write‐offs less new authorizations)b 1.8

Total Major Sources 538.0$

Uses

Addition to reserve for deposit to Revenue Stabilization Fund in

FY2017 above the amount already budgeted ($605.6 million

required deposit less $129.5 million in budget) 476.1$

Reserve for Water Quality Improvement Fund Part A 55.0 Reserve for Water Quality Improvement Fund Part B 6.7

Total Major Uses 537.8$

a The withdrawal from the Revenue Stabilization Fund in fiscal year 2015 was budgeted at $470.0 million. The actual withdrawal was $467.7 million or $2.3 million lower than the budgeted amount. The difference was caused by lower interest earnings on the Fund than what was anticipated in the budget.

12

b The balances in existing natural disaster authorizations closed out in fiscal year 2015 totaled $2.3 million whereas new authorizations equaled $0.5 million for a net reduction or savings of $1.8 million.

All Surplus Dollars Are Either Reserved, Committed or AssignedCommitted, or Assigned…

Preliminary Balance SheetGeneral Fund - Budgetary (Cash) Basis (Unaudited)

Fiscal Year 2015(millions of dollars)( )

AssetsCash, Cash Equivalents, and Investments $ 1,794.5 Cash, Travel Advances and Amounts Due from Other Funds 0.7

Total Assets $ 1,795.2

Liabilities and Fund EquityLiabilities:

Payments Awaiting Disbursement 31.6 Deposits Pending Distribution 4.4

Total Liabilities $ 36.0

Fund Equity:Reserved Fund Balance:

Revenue Stabilization Reserve Fund 467 7Revenue Stabilization Reserve Fund 467.7 Revenue Stabilization Reserve 2017 605.6 Lottery Proceeds Fund 2.8 Water Supply Assistance Grant Fund 6.5

Total Reserved Fund Balance 1,082.6

Commitments and Assignments:

Reapp. 2015 Unexpended Bal. for Cap Outlay 21.5 C t l C it l Pl i F d 14 2Central Capital Planning Fund 14.2 Communication Sales and Use Tax 36.4 Natural Disaster Sum Sufficient 24.1 Amount Required by Chapter 665 247.2 Amt. Required for Mandatory Reapp. 58.6 Virginia Health Care Fund 8.8 Virginia Water Quality Improvement Fund 32.9 Virginia WQIF - Part A 55.0Virginia WQIF Part A 55.0 Virginia WQIF - Part B 6.7 Commonwealth's Development Opportunity Fund 23.6 Discretionary Reappropriations 60.7 Federal Action Contigency Trust Fund 0.4 Select NGF Balances 86.5

Total Committed and Assigned Fund Balance 676.6

Total Fund Equity 1 759 2

13

Total Fund Equity 1,759.2

Total Liabilities and Fund Balance $ 1,795.2

A Mandatory Deposit of $605.6 Million Will Be Made to the Revenue Stabilization Fund i FY2017 S b t ti ll I i th Siin FY2017 Substantially Increasing the Size of the Fund to About $845.0 Million by June 30, 2017…

Revenue Stabilization Fund June 30 BalanceRevenue Stabilization Fund – June 30 BalanceFY1995-2015 Actual and FY2016-2017 Forecast

(millions of dollars)$1,200

$1,064.7

$1,189.8

$

$800

$1,000

$715.6

$1,014.9

$575 1

$687.5

$845.3

illi

on

s

$400

$600

$224 3

$361.5

$574.6

$472.4

$247.5

$340.1

$482.3

$575.1

$295.2

$299.4 $303.6

$440.0 $467.7

$237 4

Mi

$0

$200

$80.1 $85.0

$156.6

$224.3 $237.4

• A deposit of $243.2 million and a withdrawal of $467.7 million occurred in FY2015.

• Another withdrawal estimated at $235.0 million will occur in

14

FY2016.• A mandatory deposit of $605.6 million is required in year 2017

based on actual general fund revenue collections for FY2015.

The Current Official Fiscal Year 2016 Total General Fund Revenue Forecast Calls For A Decline of 0.5 Percent Compared toA Decline of 0.5 Percent Compared to Actual Collections for Fiscal Year 2015…

Summary of General Fund Revenue Collections FY2015 and FY2016

Official Estimate

% Annual Growth Req By

Actual Collections % Actual Amount

Official Estimate

% Change From

FY2015 and FY2016(millions of dollars)

FY2015 Estimate FY2015 Growth Variance FY2016 Actual

Revenue Source

Individual Income Tax:

Withholding 10,903.9$ 4.0% 11,044.3$ 5.3% 140.4$ 11,275.1$ 2.1%

Tax Dues/Estimated Payments 2,725.2 7.9 3,041.6 20.5 316.4$ 2,785.2 -8.4

(R f d ) (1 812 8) 3 2 (1 757 3) 0 1 55 6 (1 840 6) 4 7(Refunds) (1,812.8) 3.2 (1,757.3) 0.1 55.6 (1,840.6) 4.7

Net Individual Income Tax 11,816.3 5.0 12,328.7 9.6 512.4 12,219.7 -0.9

Sales and Use 3,217.8 4.9 3,235.4 5.5 17.6 3,323.1 2.7

Corporate Income 840.9 11.0 831.9 9.8 (9.0) 820.7 -1.3

Insurance Premiums 320.5 0.0 300.6 (6.2) (19.9) 326.8 8.7

Wills, Suits, Deeds, Contracts 318.3 2.4 346.3 11.4 28.0 318.3 -8.1Wills, Suits, Deeds, Contracts 318.3 2.4 346.3 11.4 28.0 318.3 8.1

Interest 62.0 (16.3) 49.0 (34.1) (13.0) 65.6 33.9

Other Revenue 610.2 (2.9) 643.7 2.4 33.5 646.5 0.4

Total General Fund Revenue 17,186.0 4.7 17,735.6 8.1 549.5 17,720.7 -0.1

Transfers 645.0 20.0 633.9 17.9 (11.1) 564.5 -10.9

Total General Fund Resources 17,831.0$ 5.2% 18,369.5$ 8.4% 538.5$ 18,285.2$ -0.5%

15

The Current IHS Economics’ Outlook for Fiscal Year 2016 Shows Improved G thGrowth…• Supported by robust gains in employment and household

wealth, real consumer spending (the biggest component of GDP) is forecast to advance at a 3.0 percent rate.

• Dismal growth in Europe and China are risks to the economy.

Summary of Key U S and Virginia Economic IndicatorsSummary of Key U.S. and Virginia Economic IndicatorsPercent Change Over the Prior Fiscal Year

FY15Actual Official July

U S

FY16

U.S.

Real GDP 2.6 2.4 2.4

Consumer Spending 2.9 2.9 3.0


Personal Income 4 4 4 5 4 3Personal Income 4.4 4.5 4.3

Wages & Salaries 4.9 4.7 4.8

Virginia

Employment 0.8 1.4 tbd

Professional/Business 0.4 3.0 tbd

Construction/Mining 1.9 3.5 tbd

Personal Income* tbd 3.8 tbd

Wages & Salaries* tbd 3.5 tbd

16

* FY15 Actual data will be provided during the fall forecasting process.

Although Not A Significant Month, July Revenue Declined 10.0 Percent, The R i d Of Fi l Y 2016 N d TRemainder Of Fiscal Year 2016 Needs To Grow 0.6 Percent To Attain The Forecast…

Summary of July FY16 Revenue CollectionsSummary of July FY16 Revenue Collections

As a %of Total YTD Annual

Major Source Revenues Actual Estimate Variance

Withholding 63 6 % (3 6) % 2 1 % (5 7) %

Percent Growth over Prior Year

Withholding 63.6 % (3.6) % 2.1 % (5.7) %Nonwithholding 15.7 (33.4) (8.4) (25.0)Refunds (10.4) 2.0 4.7 (2.7) Net Individual 69.0 (6.4) (0.9) (5.5)

Sales 18.8 (26.5) 2.7 (29.2)Corporate 4 6 (77 7) (1 3) (76 4)Corporate 4.6 (77.7) (1.3) (76.4)Wills (Recordation) 1.8 15.1 (8.1) 23.2Insurance 1.8 n/a 8.7 n/aAll Other Revenue 4.0 (6.8) 2.8 (9.6)

Total 100.0 % (10.0) % (0.1) % (9.9) %

Sales (x HB2313 & AST) 8.9 % 2.7 % 6.2 %

Total (x HB2313 & AST) (3.7) % 0.0 % (3.7) %

The July decline was largely due to 3 factors:• Withholding had one less deposit day.• Nonwithholding payments last year were higher than

normal because of a delay in mail service.

17

• AST policy changes reduced General Fund sales tax collections.

The Normal Fall Forecasting Process Will Begin In September…Begin In September…

• Significant revenue elements used in the fall forecasting process will be available over the next few months and will be i t d i th f ll f tiincorporated in the fall forecasting process.

– September:• Individual, corporate, and insurance estimated

payments are duepayments are due.

– October:• Retailer corporate estimated payments are due.• Joint Advisory Board of Economists (JABE) reviews

economic projections for current and next biennium.

– November:• Corporate refunds from extension returns peak.

G ’ Ad i C il R E ti t• Governor’s Advisory Council on Revenue Estimates (GACRE) reviews revenue forecast for fiscal year 2016 and 2017-2018 biennium.

– December:December:• General fund revenue forecast finalized.• Governor McAuliffe’s amendments to the 2015-2016

budget and 2017-2018 budget are presented to the Joint Money Committees.

18

Appendix

Fiscal Year 2015 General Fund Collections: Actual and Official Forecast

Official General Fund Forecast for Fiscal Year 2016

Official Commonwealth Transportation Fund Forecast for Fiscal Year 2016

Growth in Total General Fund Revenues, Fiscal Years 1961 to ,2016

June 2015 Revenue Report

July 2015 Revenue ReportJuly 2015 Revenue Report

Note:

The General Fund Preliminary Annual Report, August, 2015 is available at the Department of Accounts web site (www.doa.virginia.gov).

Thi t ti i il bl t th S t f Fi bThis presentation is available at the Secretary of Finance web site (www.finance.virginia.gov).

19

MAJOR TAX SOURCES

Corporate Income $ 757.5 (11.9) % $ 840.9 $ 831.9 $ (9.0) (1.1) % 11.0 % 9.8 %


Gross 13,009.2 4.9 13,629.1 14,086.0 456.9 3.4 4.8 8.3

Withholding 10,484.2 4.4 10,903.9 11,044.3 140.4 1.3 4.0 5.3

Nonwithholding 2,524.9 7.1 2,725.2 3,041.6 316.4 11.6 7.9 20.5

Refunds (1,755.8) (1.6) (1,812.8) (1,757.3) 55.5 (3.1) 3.2 0.1

Net 11,253.3 6.0 11,816.3 12,328.7 512.4 4.3 5.0 9.6

Insurance Company Premiums 320.4 26.7 320.5 300.6 (19.9) (6.2) 0.0 (6.2)

State Sales & Use Tax 3,066.5 (1.8) 3,217.8 3,235.4 17.6 0.5 4.9 5.5

Wills, Suits, Deeds, & Contract Fees 310.8 (3.5) 318.3 346.3 28.0 8.8 2.4 11.4

Total Major Tax Sources $ 15,708.5 3.6 % $ 16,513.8 $ 17,043.0 $ 529.2 3.2 % 5.1 % 8.5 %

MISCELLANEOUS TAXES AND OTHER REVENUES

Alcoholic Beverage State Tax $ 157.4 9.8 % $ 162.6 $ 166.0 $ 3.4 2.1 % 3.3 % 5.4 %

Bank Franchise Tax 22.5 19.4 16.8 19.0 2.2 13.2 (25.5) (15.6)

Beer & Beverage Excise Tax 41.8 (2.7) 41.8 41.9 0.1 0.1 (0.0) 0.1

Corporate Franchise & Charter Fees 50.2 18.6 47.3 48.6 1.3 2.7 (5.8) (3.3)

Excess & Other Fees from Officers (7.1) 17.8 (8.9) (6.8) 2.1 (23.8) (24.9) 4.9

Estate & Gifts 0.2 (34.2) 0.0 0.1 0.1 n/a (100.0) (50.0)

Institutional Revenues 5.6 (3.4) 5.5 7.4 1.9 34.0 (2.5) 30.6

Interest & Rents 74.4 (4.1) 62.3 49.0 (13.3) (21.3) (16.3) (34.1)

Licenses & Permits 4.0 (5.0) 4.0 4.1 0.1 1.5 (0.8) 0.7

Miscellaneous Taxes and Penalties 222.3 (0.5) 213.7 232.2 18.5 8.6 (3.9) 4.4

Other Miscellaneous Revenues 33.3 1.6 30.3 32.8 2.5 8.2 (9.1) (1.6)

Public Service GR / Consumption Tax 98.2 3.9 96.8 98.5 1.7 1.8 (1.4) 0.4

Total Misc. Taxes and Other Revenues $ 702.9 3.8 % $ 672.2 $ 692.7 $ 20.5 3.0 % (4.4) % (1.5) %

TOTAL GF REVENUES $ 16,411.4 3.6 % $ 17,186.0 $ 17,735.6 $ 549.6 3.2 % 4.7 % 8.1 %

TRANSFERS

A.B.C. Profits $ 72.2 13.2 % $ 83.3 $ 83.3 $ 0.0 0.0 % 15.4 % 15.4 %

Sales Tax (0.25%) 334.0 56.0 350.3 352.4 2.1 0.6 4.9 5.5

Transfers Per Appropriations Act 131.5 6.4 211.4 198.2 (13.2) (6.2) 60.8 50.7

Total Transfers $ 537.7 7.3 % $ 645.0 $ 633.9 $ (11.1) (1.7) % 20.0 % 17.9 %

TOTAL GENERAL FUND $ 16,949.1 3.7 % $ 17,831.0 $ 18,369.5 $ 538.5 3.0 % 5.2 % 8.4 %

Table 3.1

Fiscal Year 2014 Fiscal Year 2015

Fiscal Year 2015 General Fund Collections: Actual and Official Forecast(Dollars in Millions)

PercentForecast VarianceDollars

The Official forecast is based on the November 2014 IHS Economics US Standard outlook and the corresponding Virginia economic outlook developed by the Department of Taxation with recommendations from GACRE. It includes actions of the 2015 General Assembly Session.

% Growth Over FY 14OfficialActual % Growth Forecast Actual Official Actual

(Dollars in Millions)

MAJOR TAX SOURCES

Corporate Income $ 771.6 $ 820.7 $ 49.1 1.8 % (1.3) % $ 1,529.5 $ 1,652.6 $ 123.1


Gross 13,891.7 14,060.3 168.6 3.1 (0.2) 27,364.8 28,146.3 781.5

Withholding 11,140.1 11,275.1 135.0 3.3 2.1 21,928.0 22,319.4 391.4

Nonwithholding 2,751.6 2,785.2 33.6 2.5 (8.4) 5,436.8 5,826.8 390.0

Refunds (1,855.6) (1,840.6) 15.0 1.5 4.7 (3,683.4) (3,597.9) 85.5

Net 12,036.1 12,219.7 183.6 3.4 (0.9) 23,681.4 24,548.4 867.0

Insurance Company Premiums 326.8 326.8 (0.0) (2.3) 8.7 661.3 627.4 (33.9)

State Sales & Use Tax 3,292.0 3,323.1 31.1 2.9 2.7 6,489.8 6,558.5 68.7

Wills, Suits, Deeds, & Contract Fees 318.3 318.3 0.0 0.0 (8.1) 636.6 664.6 28.0

Total Major Tax Sources $ 16,744.8 $ 17,008.6 $ 263.8 3.0 % (0.2) % $ 32,998.6 $ 34,051.5 $ 1,052.9

MISCELLANEOUS TAXES AND OTHER REVENUES

Alcoholic Beverage State Tax $ 166.1 $ 166.1 $ 0.0 2.2 % 0.1 % $ 328.7 $ 332.1 $ 3.4

Bank Franchise Tax 20.5 20.5 0.0 22.0 7.8 37.3 39.5 2.2

Beer & Beverage Excise Tax 41.8 41.8 0.0 0.0 (0.1) 83.6 83.7 0.1

Corporate Franchise & Charter Fees 47.3 47.3 0.0 0.0 (2.6) 94.6 95.9 1.3

Excess & Other Fees from Officers (8.9) (8.9) 0.0 0.0 (31.3) (17.8) (15.7) 2.1

Estate & Gifts 0.0 0.0 0.0 n/a n/a 0.0 0.1 n/a

Institutional Revenues 5.5 5.5 0.0 0.0 (25.4) 11.0 12.9 1.9

Interest & Rents 67.4 65.9 (1.5) 5.8 34.4 131.1 114.9 (16.2)

Licenses & Permits 4.0 4.0 0.0 0.0 (1.5) 8.0 8.1 0.1

Miscellaneous Taxes and Penalties 212.9 212.0 (0.9) (0.4) (8.7) 426.6 444.2 17.6

Other Miscellaneous Revenues 61.1 61.1 0.0 101.7 86.4 91.4 93.9 2.5

Public Service GR / Consumption Tax 96.8 96.8 0.0 0.0 (1.8) 193.6 195.3 1.7

Total Misc. Taxes and Other Revenues $ 714.5 $ 712.1 $ (2.4) 6.1 % 2.8 % $ 1,388.1 $ 1,404.8 $ 16.7

TOTAL GF REVENUES $ 17,459.3 $ 17,720.7 $ 261.4 3.1 % (0.1) % $ 34,386.7 $ 35,456.3 $ 1,069.6

TRANSFERS

A.B.C. Profits $ 80.2 $ 80.2 $ 0.0 3.8 % (3.7) % $ 157.5 $ 163.5 $ 6.0

Sales Tax (0.375%) 359.3 362.9 3.6 3.2 3.0 707.4 715.3 7.9

Transfers Per Appropriations Act 124.6 121.4 (3.2) (40.1) (38.7) 332.7 319.6 (13.1)

Total Transfers $ 564.1 $ 564.5 $ 0.4 (11.0) % (10.9) % $ 1,197.6 $ 1,198.4 $ 0.8

TOTAL GENERAL FUND $ 18,023.4 $ 18,285.2 $ 261.8 2.6 % (0.5) % $ 35,584.3 $ 36,654.7 $ 1,070.4

2014-2016 BienniumDecember

The Official forecast is based on the November 2014 IHS Economics Standard Outlook and the corresponding Virginia state forecast developed by the Department of Taxation with recommendations from GACRE. It includes actions of the 2015 General Assembly Session -- Chapter 665.

The December forecast is based on the November IHS Economics US Standard outlook and a JABE Pessimisstic Plus forecast with recommendations from the Governor's Advisory Council on Revenue Estimates (GACRE) and Governor's amendments.

ChangeOfficialDecember Official

Fiscal Year 2016

The December and Official General Fund Forecast for Fiscal Year 2016March 26, 2015

% Growth Over FY 15 OfficialDecember Forecast ForecastForecast Forecast Change

The December and Official Commonwealth Transportation Fund Forecast for Fiscal Year 2016(Dollars in Millions)

August 27, 2015

Fiscal Year 2015 Fiscal Year 2016December Official % Growth over FY 15

Actual % Growth Forecast Forecast Change December Official

Highway Maintenance & Operating Fund

Motor Fuels Tax $ 576.4 9.3 % $ 672.4 $ 678.5 $ 6.1 17.3 % 17.7 %Road Tax (1.8) (460.0) (0.3) 0.6 0.9 200.0 (133.3)Motor Vehicle Sales And Use Tax 638.6 9.9 675.7 628.3 (47.4) 3.4 (1.6)Motor Vehicle License Fees 223.3 (1.9) 234.6 222.7 (11.9) 0.8 (0.3)Retail Sales and Use Tax 277.9 45.3 279.9 281.7 1.8 3.5 1.4International Registration Plan 66.0 10.7 62.7 60.4 (2.3) (1.3) (8.5)Recordation Tax (1 cent) 14.0 12.0 15.0 12.7 (2.3) 0.0 (9.3)Miscellaneous 18.3 5.8 16.1 15.7 (0.4) 0.0 (14.2)Total State Taxes and Fees $ 1,812.7 12.1 % $ 1,956.1 $ 1,900.6 $ (55.5) 7.2 % 4.8 %

Transportation Trust Fund

Motor Fuels Tax $ 138.7 13.3 % $ 159.6 $ 161.2 $ 1.6 17.4 % 16.2 %Insurance Premiums Tax (1/3) 150.4 15.0 143.7 150.3 6.6 2.6 (0.1)Road Tax 7.5 (6.3) 8.1 7.9 (0.2) 3.8 5.3Motor Vehicle Sales And Use Tax 215.9 4.1 225.9 211.7 (14.2) 1.7 (1.9)Motor Vehicle License Fees 21.8 0.5 22.5 21.9 (0.6) 0.4 0.5Retail Sales and Use Tax 717.0 13.6 685.5 725.6 40.1 2.9 1.2Recordation Tax (2 cents) 28.0 12.4 30.5 25.2 (5.3) 0.0 (10.0)Interest Earnings 7.5 4.2 10.9 14.8 3.9 3.8 97.3Rental Tax 35.9 7.8 35.1 35.6 0.5 3.2 (0.8)Aviation Fuels Tax 1.8 (10.0) 2.1 2.0 (0.1) 5.0 11.1Total State Taxes and Fees $ 1,324.5 11.4 % $ 1,323.9 $ 1,356.2 $ 32.3 4.1 % 2.4 %

Total HMOF And TTF

Motor Fuels Tax $ 715.1 10.1 % $ 832.0 $ 839.7 $ 7.7 17.3 % 17.4 %Insurance Premiums Tax (1/3) 150.4 15.0 143.7 150.3 6.6 2.6 (0.1)Road Tax 5.7 (32.9) 7.8 8.5 0.7 1.3 49.1Motor Vehicle Sales and Use Tax 854.5 8.4 901.6 840.0 (61.6) 3.0 (1.7)Motor Vehicle License Fees 245.1 (1.7) 257.1 244.6 (12.5) 0.7 (0.2)International Registration Plan 66.0 10.7 62.7 60.4 (2.3) (1.3) (8.5)Retail Sales and Use Tax 994.9 20.9 965.4 1,007.3 41.9 3.1 1.2Recordation Tax (3 cents) 42.0 12.3 45.5 37.9 (7.6) 0.0 (9.8)Interest Earnings 7.5 4.2 10.9 14.8 3.9 3.8 97.3Rental Tax 35.9 7.8 35.1 35.6 0.5 3.2 (0.8)Aviation Fuels Tax 1.8 (10.0) 2.1 2.0 (0.1) 5.0 11.1Miscellaneous 18.3 5.8 16.1 15.7 (0.4) 0.0 (14.2)

Total State Taxes and Fees $ 3,137.2 11.8 % $ 3,280.0 $ 3,256.8 $ (23.2) 5.9 % 3.8 %

Transfers per the Appropriations ActRetail Sales Tax - AST (TTF) 21.7 0.0 16.2 0.0 (16.2) (88.4) (100.0)Total Transfers $ 21.7 0.0 $ 16.2 $ 0.0 $ (16.2) 110.4 (100.0) %

Total Transportation Fund $ 3,158.9 11.7 $ 3,296.2 $ 3,256.8 $ (39.4) 5.8 % 3.1 %

Growth in Total General Fund Revenues

Fiscal Year 1961 - Fiscal Year 2016

(Nominal - Actual Dollars)

FY Total Revenues Growth FY Total Revenues Growth

61 230,998,887 - 89 5,478,912,000 8.4%

62 242,144,567 4.8% 90 5,494,884,000 0.3%

63 286,304,265 18.2% 91 5,471,879,000 -0.4%

64 298,033,919 4.1% 92 5,623,213,000 2.8%

65 323,213,412 8.4% 93 6,133,637,000 9.1%

66 365,129,776 13.0% 94 6,503,368,000 6.0%

67 414,755,644 13.6% 95 6,881,145,000 5.8%

68 533,597,744 28.7% 96 7,356,110,000 6.9%

69 706,254,374 32.4% 97 7,949,327,000 8.1%

70 743,721,322 5.3% 98 8,773,520,000 10.4%

71 807,954,651 8.6% 99 9,702,747,000 10.6%

72 922,653,686 14.2% 00 10,788,482,000 11.2%

73 1,054,469,443 14.3% 01 11,105,275,000 2.9%

74 1,168,562,871 10.8% 02 10,678,954,000 -3.8%

75 1,303,178,893 11.5% 03 10,867,149,000 1.8%

76 1,428,421,157 9.6% 04 11,917,867,000 9.7%

77 1,636,301,819 14.6% 05 13,687,252,000 14.8%

78 1,923,085,084 17.5% 06 14,834,298,000 8.4%

79 2,115,211,522 10.0% 07 15,565,827,000 4.9%

80 2,344,928,934 10.9% 08 15,766,951,000 1.3%

81 2,579,663,941 10.0% 09 14,315,060,000 -9.2%

82 2,796,458,741 8.4% 10 14,219,477,000 -0.7%

83 2,975,687,935 6.4% 11 15,040,200,000 5.8%

84 3,397,710,261 14.2% 12 15,846,665,000 5.4%

85 3,790,816,000 11.6% 13 16,684,600,000 5.3%

86 4,131,778,000 9.0% 14 16,411,415,000 -1.6%

87 4,590,434,000 11.1% 15 17,735,636,000 8.1%

88 5,054,382,000 10.1% 16* 17,720,628,857 -0.1%

* Chapter 665 (Excludes Transfers)

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Sep

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$4,0

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9%0.

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Oct

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Jan

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$4,1

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20%

Feb

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,314

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$4,5

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$687

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-10-

review of general fund revenues and the virggyinia...

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