review of the forest service response: the bark beetle outbreak in northern colorado and southern...

8/3/2019 Review of the Forest Service Response: The Bark Beetle Outbreak in Northern Colorado and Southern Wyoming

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Review of the Forest Service Response:

The Bark Beetle Outbreak in NorthernColorado and Southern Wyoming

A report byUSDA Forest ServiceRocky Mountain Region and Rocky Mountain Research Station

at the request of Senator Mark Udall

September 2011


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Executive Summary

A mountain pine beetle outbreak in three national orests in the Rocky Mountain Region (Region 2) othe U.S. Forest Servicethe Arapaho-Roosevelt, Medicine Bow-Routt and White Riverwas initiallydetected in 1996. By 2010 it had spread to about our million acres. Tis report examines the ecologicalconditions and historical land use that contributed to the outbreak, management response to the out-break, suggested new and extended authorities or addressing the outbreak, and what we might expect aswe look orward to the new orest.

Looking Back: Conditions that Led to the Outbreak

Bark beetles are a natural part o orest ecosystems throughout the world. However, bark beetles arekilling trees in larger numbers, at aster rates, over longer time periods, and over larger areas comparedto outbreaks recorded over the past century. Moreover, outbreaks are occurring in multiple orest types.Reasons or these changes are unclear, but they include a changing climate aecting both insect and host;previous management practices such as selective timber harvesting and wildre suppression in some oresttypes; a maturing orest due in part to changing disturbance patterns; and prolonged drought, which canstress trees and make them more vulnerable to insect attacks.

During the last part o the 20th century, widespread treatments in lodgepole pine stands that wouldhave created age class diversity, enhanced the vigor o remaining trees, and improved stand resiliency todrought or insect attacksuch as timber harvest and thinninglacked public acceptance. Proposals orsuch practices were routinely appealed and litigated, constraining the ability o the Forest Service to man-age what had become large expanses o even-aged stands susceptible to a bark beetle outbreak.

Tere were other actors that helped set the stage or a large-scale outbreak:

Consecutiveyearsofseveredroughtinthelate1990sandthroughthemiddleoftherstdecadeofthe 2000s, putting already densely populated stands under severe stress.

Fundingforpre-commercialandcommercialthinningtoreducestanddensityduringthedecade

leading up to and including the outbreak did not keep pace with the rate o bark beetle outbreakspread.

Limitedaccessibilityofterrain(only25%oftheoutbreakareawasaccessibleduetosteepslopes,lack o existing roads, and land use designations such as Wilderness that precluded treatmentsneeded to reduce susceptibility to insects and disease).

Declineinpublicacceptanceoflarge-scaletimbermanagementpracticesinthelastpartofthe20thcentury. Tis lack o public acceptance, compounded by national and international market orcesand the relatively low commercial value o lodgepole pine, contributed to a corresponding declinein the timber industry. (Te timber industry in the Rocky Mountain Region has declined by 63percent since 1986).

Management Response in the Atermath o the Outbreak and Factors that Inuenced ResponseRegion 2 has made mitigation in the atermath o the outbreak a top priority in its allocation o limitedresources. However, unding levels at the outset o the outbreak (mid- to late 1990s) were inadequate toconduct any appreciable level o mitigation work in response to both its scale and rate o spread. Begin-ning in FY 2008, ederal and state lawmakers have responded to the outbreak through increased unding,and legislation to expand authorities.


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CollaborationwithcommunitiesofinteresthasbeenakeycomponentoftheForestServiceresponsetothe outbreak. Tese partnerships have helped to increase public awareness o the threat posed by deadand dying trees, and have been instrumental in identiying priority areas in which to conduct mitigationwork. Te response strategy ocuses on protecting human lie, public inrastructure and critical watersupplies; and on strengthening the ability o communities to adapt to changed conditions on the land-scape. What has emerged rom collaborative eorts with communities is widespread social acceptance o

the treatments needed to mitigate these threats o dead and dying trees.

Authorities such as timber sale contracts and stewardship contracts have proven to be o limited use be-cause o the low value o beetle-killed timber and the declining capacity o the traditional timber industry.Although some new markets have been developed or beetle-killed trees, utilization o large quantities obiomass is still years away. Grants have been made to private wood products companies to stimulate newtechnologies and increase current eciencies. Te research community and private companies are study-ing the economics o biomass utilization, as well as the environmental consequences o adding biomassand biological charcoal (biochar) to orest soils.

Signicant increases in appropriated unds have been used to accelerate mitigation activities. Sustainingthose increased levels o unding will be essential or the Forest Service to continue to prepare or andimplement mitigation activities at the level and pace needed to eectively protect lie and property romthe threat o dead and dying trees.

New or Extended Authorities that Could Help

wo tools that hasten response to emerging outbreaks and improve eectiveness are the Good NeighborAuthorityandtheStewardshipContractingAuthority.Botharesettoexpireon30September2013.Itwould be helpul i they were extended or made permanent.

Looking Forward: the New Forest

Developing appropriate management responses to bark beetle outbreaks requires understanding thecomplexitiesofinteractionsbetweenthebeetlesandhosttrees.Inestablishingthenewforest,long-termmanagement objectives will include creation o more diversity in terms o both species composition andage classes across the landscape; implementing restoration strategies or high-elevation pine orests; thin-ning to reduce stand density in orest ecosystems that have highly susceptible conditions; and incorporat-ing climate change considerations when ormulating orest management strategies.

However, opportunities to apply a strategy to achieve those objectives will continue to be limited to asmall raction o the inested land base, due to terrain (accessibility), appropriated budgets, economics,and land use designations. Simulations suggest that lodgepole pine will remain the dominant species inharvestedstandsthathavelosttheiroverstorytobarkbeetles.Inuntreatedstands,simulationssuggestthat subalpine r will become the most dominant species.

Te complexity o watershed and hydrologic processes make it dicult to predict the eect o the barkbeetle outbreak on runo quantity and quality. Any variation due to the outbreak would be dicult todetect due to other sources o variation that aect water quality and quantity, such as precipitation andclimate actors.


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Bark beetle outbreaks result in signicant changes to orest stand structure, and thus to re risk and rebehavior.1 Fire risk and behavior in these stands are complicated by dierences in the degree (percentage)o tree mortality, rate o tree mortality, and time since mortality. Te specics o how beetle outbreaksaect the likelihood that a re will start are a topic o current research.

1Fire Risk: the probability o an ignition occurring as determined rom historical re record data. Fire behavior: the magnitude,direction, and intensity o re spread.


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Table o Contents

Executive Summary i

Introduction 1

PartILookingBack:ConditionsthatLedtotheOutbreak 3

EcologicalConditions 3

Historical Use 4

Social,EconomicandPolicyIssues 5

PartIIeOutbreak:ManagementResponseandFactorsthatAectedResponse 7

ManagementResponse 7

Factors Aecting Response 9

PartIIISuggestedNeworExtendedAuthorities 15

PartIVLookingForward:eNewForest 17

CreatingaResilientForest 17

Te Role o Natural Regeneration 18

ImpactstoWatersheds 19

Fire Risk and Behavior 20

Appendices 23

AppendixOneSenatorUdallsRequest 25

AppendixTwoFundingHistoryoftheRockyMountainRegion 27 AppendixreeAccomplishmentsandRemainingWork 29

AppendixFourForestServiceBiomassGrantsintheRockyMountainRegion 31

AppendixFiveImpactstoWatersheds 33

AppendixSixFireRiskandBehavior 37

Bibliography 41


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Introduction

Since 1996, when it was rst detected, the mountain pine beetle outbreak in the lodgepole pine orests onorthernColoradoandsouthernWyominghasgrownexponentially.By2010,aerialdetectionsurveyshad estimated that our million acres were aected by mountain pine beetles in the Arapaho-Roosevelt,White River and Medicine Bow-Routt National Forests. A bark beetle outbreak o this scope is histori-cally unprecedented in this area.

Te three national orests took early steps to respond to the outbreak. reatments to thin stands to reducesusceptibility to inestation; salvage inested trees; and reduce the number o susceptible o trees aroundrural subdivisions were among the actions taken. By the middle o the rst decade o the 2000s, it wasclear that management actions such as thinning had not stopped the spread o the outbreak, but onlysloweditsspreadintohigh-valueareas.Itwasnotfeasibleeventoremovedeadtreestothedegreedesiredby many local residents to reduce wildre risk.

InNovemberof2010,SenatorMarkUdallwrotetoUSDASecretaryTomVilsacktorequestthattheU.S.ForestServiceconductareviewofthismountainpinebeetleoutbreak(seeAppendixOne).He

asked that the Forest Service document lessons learned and obstacles encountered to help determinewhat more can be done, and what additional tools may be needed to respond to this outbreak and oth-ers in the uture. Tis report was produced collaboratively by the Rocky Mountain Research Station(RMRS)andtheRockyMountainRegion(Region2).Itisacompilationofcurrentresearchinformationand management experience, using readily available inormation on administrative and management is-sues. No additional research or development o administrative data was undertaken or this report.

PartI(LookingBack:ConditionsthatLedtotheOutbreak)addressestheecologicalconditionsofthelodgepolepineforeststhatcontributedtoanoutbreak.Italsodescribesusesoftheforestsinthe19thcentury that contributed to a orest structure that was highly vulnerable to an outbreak. Finally, this sec-tion addresses social, economic and policy issues that constrained vegetation treatments that would haveincreased resiliency to drought or insect attack.

PartII(eOutbreak:ManagementResponse,andFactorsthatAectedIt)detailstheresponsetotheoutbreakbytheForestServiceanditspartners.Italsoexaminesthesocial,economicandpolicyissuesthat aected the ability o the Forest Service to respond quickly and at the necessary scale.

PartIII(SuggestedExtendedAuthorities)suggestsextensionofauthorities,settoexpire,thatwouldbeuseul in responding to an outbreak.

InPartIV(LookingForward:eNewForest)touchesonpost-outbreakconditions,includingdevel-opment o the uture orest, how to promote resiliency, impacts to watersheds, and how re hazard1 andre risk will change over time.

1Fire Hazard: A uel complex, dened by volume, type, condition, arrangement and location, which determines the ease oignition and the resistance to control. A physical situation (uels, weather, and topography) with potential or causing harm ordamage as a result o wildland re.


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Part I Looking Back: Conditions that Led to the Outbreak

Ecological Conditions

Native bark beetles are a natural part o orest ecosystems throughout the world. We know that bark

beetles have been associated with western orests in the United States since at least the Holocene geologicepoch, which began approximately 12,000 years ago. Tey have probably been a part o the orest ecosys-tem or much longer.

About500speciesofbarkbeetlesoccurinNorthAmerica,butonlyafewkillalloraportionofthehosttrees they inest. Tese ew species are primarily responsible or the large areas o tree mortality seenacross the major orest ecosystems in the West. Tese tree-killers reside in a single amily o insects (Cur-culionidae, subamilyScolytinae) and each species has evolved to eed and reproduce in a single coniergroup. Te mountain pine beetle, the species o primary interest in this report, attacks and reproduces inat least 12 dierent species o pine, including lodgepole, ponderosa, bristlecone, whitebark, western white,sugar, and limber pine.

Historically in North America, bark beetle populations are cyclical and periodically erupt into outbreaks.Although outbreaks can kill many trees over large areas, they have not destroyed orests but have servedaspositiveforcesoftransformationthatredistributenutrientsandgrowingspace.Inthisrole,beetlesgenerally attack larger trees, thus helping to renew the orest by killing older and declining trees whileallowing younger, more productive trees to compete successully or resources. Te current bark beetleoutbreaks, however, are unprecedented in their intensity, their extent, and their synchroneity (that is, theiroccurrence at the same time). Bark beetles are killing trees in larger numbers, at a aster rate, over longertime periods, and over larger areas compared to outbreaks recorded over the past century. Furthermore,the outbreaks are occurring concurrently across western North America in multiple orest types. Tereason or reasons or these changes are unclear, but the best available science provides some insights. Teyinclude:

Achangingclimateaectingbothinsectandhost. Previousmanagementpracticessuchastimberharvesting,historicalusepatterns,andwildre

suppression in some orest types; and a maturing orest due in part to management practices thatchanged the size and requency o regeneration events. Te result was hundreds o thousands ocontiguous acres o lodgepole pine in densely stocked, mature stand conditions that were highlysusceptible to bark beetle attack.

Prolongeddrought,whichcanstresstreesandmakethemmorevulnerabletoinsectattacks.


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Climate: Bark beetles, like all insects, are ectotherms (an organism whose body temperature varies withthe temperature o its environment). Every aspect o the beetles lie is aected by temperaturerom thenumber o eggs it lays, to its ability to disperse, to the rate at which the beetle moves rom one lie stageto the next (or example, rom pupa to adult), to the survival o the beetle during cold periods. Moun-tain pine beetles, or instance, move rom one lie stage to another only when temperatures are warmenougha threshold which varies depending on geographic location.

During the past decade, most years ranked among the warmest since record keeping began in the mid-1800s.Naturallythisisalsothecaseinforestecosystemswherebarkbeetlesmaketheirhome.Coldwin-ter temperature is a major mortality agent o bark beetles. Warmer winter temperatures oster increasedinsect survival during the winter, leading to larger populations. Warmer, drier conditions can result in astressed environment or treesmaking them more susceptible to insect attackand higher temperaturescan increase the speed o insect development. However, this will be a actor only i the insect is still ableto enter the winter in its cold-hardy stage; this may be occurring in high-elevation orest types such aswhitebark and limber pine.

Inadditiontothedirecteectsofwarmingtemperatures,thereareindirecteectsofclimatechange.Aprolonged drought in portions o the western U.S. during the late 1990s and early 2000s, combined

with the warming temperatures, weakened trees and made them more susceptible to bark beetle attacks.Forests ull o drought-stressed trees, combined with rapidly expanding populations o bark beetles, ueleddramatic increases in the duration, intensity, and extent o tree mortality in these western orests.

Wildfre Suppression: Since the early 20th century, when the United States implemented a policy osuppressing re on public land, many re-prone ecosystems such as ponderosa and lodgepole pine haveexperiencedlongre-freeintervals.Oftenthespeciescompositionandstructureofthoseforestschanged,resulting in dense orests ull o the mature trees that bark beetles avor.

Te role o re suppression in bark beetle outbreak dynamics is a topic o much discussion among sci-entists, refecting the need or additional research. Although the eect o re suppression on bark beetle

outbreaks varies by orest type, region, and the level o orest management (such as timber harvest), it isair to conclude that re suppression policies have helped create a landscape that is more homogeneousover vast tracts o orest, and thereore more susceptible to large-scale bark beetle attacks.

Historical Use

etiehackingindustryintheareaofWyomingandColoradothatisnowtheMedicineBowNationalForest began in 1868 with the construction o the ranscontinental Railroad. During the peak construc-tionyears,1868to1870,timberfor3millionrailroadtieswasremoved.Between1869and1902(theyear the Medicine Bow National Forest was established), timber or another 10 million railroad ties wastaken,representing90-95%ofthetotalvolumeofforestproducts.

InColorado,constructionofrailroadswasmorelocalized,supportingtheminingindustrythatsprangup

alongthemineralbeltafterthediscoveryofgoldin1858.eboomyearsforrailroadconstructionbeganin 1880 and ran until 1892, supporting the silver boom. Te mining industry was the most signicantindustryinColoradointhenineteenthcentury.Itusedvastamountsofforestresources.Allmateri-als or local railroads, mining supports, and construction in mining towns and camps came rom localforests.Placerminesandmillwastecametodominatemanylandscapes.Oftenentiremountainsideswere completely denuded to provide milled lumber or construction, supports or mines and cribbing,andfuel.Industrialminingonalandscapescalepeakedaround1900andthenretreatedtoonlythemostprotable mines.


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Tis scale o tree removal, and the clearing o large areas to expose the geology or mining explorationand extraction, resulted in a regeneration event in thousands o acres o pine orestsin other words,whole orests started over with seedlings. Tis contributed to the current stand structure where a matureoverstory is the prevalent condition.

Social, Economic, and Policy Issues

Public Acceptance o TreatmentsForest conditions susceptible to mountain pine beetle inestation in pine orests were recognized by ForestService personnel as early as the mid-1990s. Tese conditions were noted as the rationale or vegetationtreatments in Purpose and Need statements or disclosure documents required under the National Envi-ronmentalPolicyAct(NEPA).Inthe1990s,vegetationtreatmentsinlodgepolepinestandsthatwouldhave increased resiliency to drought or insect attack (timber sales and stand improvement projects such asthinning) lacked public acceptance. Tese practices, which increase growth rates and vigor o individualtrees by reducing competition, were routinely appealed and litigated. Tis hampered the ability o theForest Service to address stand conditions susceptible to outbreak.

Moreover, people were skeptical about the potential spread o the insects. Many did not believe, looking

at green trees that had been attacked by bark beetles, that they had actually been killed. Tat realizationcame a year later, when the trees turned red. Public acceptance o active orest management (also calledsocial license) increased as people witnessed the scope o the outbreak and its rapid rate o spread, butby then it was too late to implement active preventive orest management measures. Rather, the sociallicense allowed the Forest Service (and other partners) to implement large mitigation projects in the ater-math o the outbreak to address threats to public saety rom wildres and alling dead trees.

FundingFunding or pre-commercial and commercial thinning to reduce green tree stocking was extremely low orthe decade leading up to and including the outbreak. As the inestation progressed, appropriated undsdid not keep pace with the outbreak suciently or Region 2 to take early measures to eectively detectand remove inested trees (brood trees) or to thin stands o lodgepole pines ahead o the predicted beetle

inestation expansion (see Appendix 2).

Scale o Possible TreatmentsFunding levels were not the only limiting actor in maintaining orest stands. Te Forest Service was abletoaccesslessthan25percentofthesuitabletimberbase.Limitedaccessisattributedtoseveralfactors:

Forestedslopesthatexceed35%to40%aretoosteepforconventionalforestmanagementprac-tices.

Manywildandurbaninterface(WUI)areas,particularlyinColorado,areadjacenttoinventoriedroadless areas. Since the Roadless Rule was promulgated in 2001, it has been repeatedly litigated,andjudicialdecisionshavediered.Courtdecisionshavechangedthelegallandscapeforprojectplanning.FueltreatmentprojectsintheWUIrequireadditionalanalysisandinsomecaseshave

beencontroversial.Insomeareasfuelloadingsaresogreatthateectivefueltreatmentcannotoc-curwithoutremovingsomeofthefuelusingatemporaryroad.Commercialaccessonalargescalethat would support a long-term supply o wood to industry and allow increased management owatershedsisdicultoutsideoftheWUIandat-riskcommunities.

Ingeneral,mechanizedtreatmentsareprohibitedindesignatedwildernessareas.eArapaho,


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Roosevelt,WhiteRiver,andRouttNationalForestsinColoradohaveacombinedtotalofoveronemillionacresofwilderness;theMedicineBowNationalForestinWyominghasmorethan78thou-sand acres. A large portion o these wilderness acres have been impacted by the current bark beetleoutbreak.

Capacity o the Traditional Timber Industry

etimberindustryintheUnitedStateshasbeenindeclineforatleastthelasttwodecades.Onefactorin this decline has been public pressure to reduce the supply o green live timber rom National ForestSystem (NFS) lands (public opposition to tree cutting); another has been national/international marketforces.InRegion2,thetimberindustryhasdeclinedby63%since1986.(In1989,theRegionsold190millionboardfeet;in2005,theRegionsold58millionboardfeet.)Consequently,fewindustrialresources were or are available to help the Forest Service in applying management practices in response tothe bark beetle outbreak.

Use o Federal AuthoritiesAs the outbreak emerged, Region 2 was limited in its ability to reduce stocking o low-value lodgepolepine because it cost more to remove it than it was worth. Te Forest Service does not have authority toassign no-value or salvage rates to the healthy, green standing trees.

Stewardship ContractingStewardship contracts1 can be a valuable tool or thinning stands where the value o the extraction activ-ity(timberharvest)isequaltoorgreaterthanthecostofthinning.InR2,thereoftenisnotenoughvaluein the material being removed to oset the cost o removal o the material or to oset the cost or otherrestoration activities within the contract area. Short-term contracts were requently used in Region 2, butthey were generally used on areas o less than 2,000 acres, and only a raction o the area in those con-tracts involved thinning stands. Previous contracts didnt aect enough acres in the three national oreststo measurably improve resiliency o lodgepole pine stands on large landscapes.

1StewardshipcontractingcombinesrestorationandextractionactivitiesonNFSlandsintocontractoragreementpackages.Itprovides or trading goods or services, and allows a national orest to retain receipts rom orest products that need to be removedto meet restoration objectives, and apply the receipts to needed service work in the stewardship project area. Stewardship con-tractsmaybeshort-termcontractsthatlastfor1to5yearsortheymaybelong-termcontracts,oftenreferredtoasLong-TermStewardshipContractsorLTSCs,whichcanhave10-yearduration.


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Part II The Outbreak: Management Response

and Factors that Aected ResponseManagement Response

CollaborationAs the outbreak expanded to aect millions o acres, the Forest Service recognized that neither it norany other entity could respond eectively on its ownso the agency convened partners in 2006 to sug-gestacollaborativeapproach.epartnersagreed,andcreatedtheColoradoBarkBeetleCooperative(CBBC),anorganizationthattakesconcertedandstrategicactiontoaddresstheoutbreak.eCBBC,composed o ederal, state and local governments, non-governmental organizations and private businesses,has cooperated on projects and public education eorts ever since. Tese partners have been involved ingeneral awareness and public education, identication and prioritization o areas or mitigation work, and

watershed assessments.

In2007,Region2establishedaRegionalIncidentManagementTeamtocoordinatehazardoustreeremoval among the three orests and promote cooperation with partners. Soon aterward, the NorthernFront Range Mountain Pine Beetle Working Group was ormed to coordinate eorts along the FrontRangeofColorado.Intheresearchcommunity,theWesternBarkBeetleResearchGroup(WBBRG)1was ormed to serve as an ad hoc umbrella organization aimed at ostering communication, and enrichingscientic interactions among Forest Service bark beetle researchers in the western United States. WB-BRGsgoalistoenhancetheresponsiveness,delivery,andimpactofbarkbeetleresearch.IthasprovidedForestInsectandDiseaseTally(FIDT)softwareforanalyzinginsectanddiseasepopulationinformationtaken during stand surveys; a research bibliography, extending back into the 1960s and including currentresearch; and databases o historical mountain pine beetle outbreaks.

MitigationTe response strategy developed by the Forest Service and its partners ocuses on public and employeehealth and saety; protection o public inrastructure and critical water supplies; and community resilienceto adapt to changed conditions on the landscape. (Tere was not the unding, capacity, nor public sup-port to address backcountry areas.) Te strategy identies values at risk:

1Te web site address or the WBBRG is (http://www.usu.edu/beetle/wbbrg_bark_beetle.htm.


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215,000acresofwildlandurbaninterface(WUI);

3,700milesofforestsystemroads;

1,300milesoftrails;

460developedrecreationsites;

16skiareas;and

550milesofpowerlines.

Inaddition,essentialwatersuppliesareatriskfromfallingtreesbecauseofthedamagewildrescancauseto watersheds, and because alling dead trees can obstruct water inrastructure (such as ditches, gates,pipelines,andstoragefacilities).WithintheheartoftheoutbreakinColoradoandWyomingaretheheadwaters or rivers that supply water to 13 western states.

In2009,RegionalForesterRickCables,recognizingthattheoutbreakhadbecomeasafetyemergencythat exceeded regional capability, signed a Delegation o Authority that transerred management o publichealthandsafetyactionstotheBoiseNationalIncidentManagementOrganization(NIMO)foradura-tionoftwoyears.eNIMOdevelopedatheatre-levelmanagementstrategyfortheareacomprising

the three bark beetle orests.2eNIMOalsodevelopedanIncidentActionPlanandanincidentman-agement organization. Management has since transitioned back to a Regional-level team that continuesto ocus mitigation eorts. Projects are directed in our major activity areas:

Hazardoustreeremovalfromroads,trailsandcampgrounds.

HazardoustreeremovalfromadministrativesitesandtheWUI.

Workwithpermitteeswhoareremovinghazardoustreesfrominfrastructuresuchaspowerlines,skiareas, and recreational residences.

Publicinformationaboutthehazardsoffallingtrees.

Te need or mitigation grows as risk grows. Necessary accelerated activities include environmental

analysis, contract preparation and administration, layout o contract units, and hazard tree removal andhazardous uels reduction work. Region 2 has made mitigation o the outbreak its top priority, shitingallocated unding to this eort to the ullest extent possible. Te bark beetle orests are using innovativeapproaches to perorm critical work. For example, interagency hot shot crews, youth crews, and prisoncrews augment the capacity o the orests workorce. Forest Service Enterprise eams and employeesfromothernationalforestsalsohelptotemporarilyincreasecapacity.Contractsareusedtoimplementwork projects, providing jobs in the private sector.

Trough these eorts, the ollowing have been accomplished to date:

12%ofroadsmitigatedforhazardtrees

12%oftrailsmitigatedforhazardtrees

61%ofrecreationsitesmitigatedforhazardtrees

18%ofwildlandurbaninterface(WUI)acresmitigatedforhazardousfuelsreduction

See Appendix Tree or urther details.

2Medicine Bow-Routt, Arapaho-Roosevelt and White River National Forests.


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At the national level, the Forest Service has developed a multi-region bark beetle strategy to identiy andaccomplish work needed across NFS lands in the West. Tis will aid in establishing a consistent andsustainable budget plan or bark beetle mitigation eorts in the longer term.

Forest Service State and Private Forestry AssistanceeStateandPrivateForestrybranchoftheU.S.ForestServicehasprovidedfundingtotheColorado

StateForestService(CSFS)tohelpaddresstheoutbreak.CSFSprovidestechnicalassistancetolandown-ers,andtreatsthousandsofacresforhazardousfuelreduction.Forexample,CooperativeFireProtectionprogram unding supported planned uel reduction treatments on more than 4,000 acres in 2009, andmorethan5,550acresin2010.

Public Inormation/EducationeForestServiceanditspartnersinColoradohaveconductedacoordinatedbarkbeetleeducationandinormation campaign. Te campaign has evolved rom explaining why trees are dying (the changingorest, the biology o the bark beetle) to raising awareness o saety threats, especially alling dead trees andwildre (practices or sae camping and hiking, creating deensible space around private properties, etc.)Te campaign is directed at the general public, specic categories o stakeholders such as homeowners inthewildlandurbaninterface(WUI),andstateandfederallegislators.

Products that have been created to share inormation include brochures, fyers, media releases and edito-rials,interpretivesigns,newspaperinserts,DVDs,doorhangers,tabletents,andlapelbuttons.(eseproducts were shared with partners in Wyoming as they began to experience eects o the outbreak.)Signs warn orest visitors o the danger o alling trees, and Forest Service employees also make personalcontacts in the woods to share inormation with visitors.

o raise awareness among lawmakers at the ederal and state levels, partners provide briengs locally andinWashington,D.C.,andhostseveraleldtourseachsummer.

Federal and State Legislative ActionFederal lawmakers, in responding to the threat to public saety, critical inrastructure, recreation activities,and water supplies, have introduced legislation to help the Forest Service address the outbreak. SenatorMarkUdallsNationalForestInsectandDiseaseEmergencyActof2009isanexample.Noneofthesebills have passed to date.

Federal lawmakers have also secured additional unding, either directly, as Senator Wayne Allard did whenheprovided$13millionthroughtheSenateAppropriationsCommitteeinFY2008,orthroughrepro-gramming.AttherequestofconcernedwesternlawmakersinFY2010,USDASecretaryTomVilsackdirected Region 2 to prioritize $40 million to address bark beetle mitigation.

Coloradolawmakershavepassed25forestry-relatedbillsinthepastthreeyears,rangingfromloanpro-grams to state income tax breaks or homeowners working to create deensible space (notably HB 1199,

theColoradoHealthyForestsandVibrantCommunitiesActof2009).Inaddition,GovernorBillRitterestablishedtheColoradoForestHealthAdvisoryCouncilin2008toadvisestateandfederalgovernmenton actions to promote orest health.

Factors Aecting Response

Authorities to Remove TreesAuthorities available to the Forest Service to manage orests were developed in the post-war period (1960s


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and1970s)fornormalenvironmentalconditionsandbusinessasusual.3 Tey are based on the as-sumption that the wood products available or removal have enough value to cover the cost o removal,pay or reorestation, and still return money to the U.S. reasury.

Currentconditionsarefarfromthenormalconditionsunderwhichtheseauthoritiesandregulationswere promulgated. oday stand mortality ar exceeds stand growth; current estimates are that over six

million acres o orests in Region 2 have some level o insect-caused tree mortality. Dead standing treesandmostgreenstandingtreesintheColoradoandWyomingoutbreakareahavelittleornocommercialvalueduetosize,condition,accessibilityormarketability.Infact,theyhavenegativevaluebecausetheymust be removed at a cost.

Region2hasdoneasmuchaspossibletoacceleratetheremovalanddisposalofdeadanddyingtrees.In2004, Region 2 was allowed to increase the delegated authority or Personal Free Use4 and AdministrativeFree Use5 to remove trees that were killed, inested, or anticipated to be inested with insects or dis-ease.isauthoritywasdelegatedtoForestSupervisorsinOctober2007.eRegionhasmaxi-mized delegation o administrative use and timber settlement authorities, enabling orest supervisors anddistrict rangers to dispose o larger quantities o dead and dying material. imber designation and ap-praisal procedures have been streamlined to respond more expediently to requests or removing material.

Stewardship ContractingAlthough stewardship contracting authority has been available or many years, Region 2 was unable totakeadvantageoflargeLong-TermStewardshipContracts(LSTCs)duringtheearlyyearsofthemoun-tain pine beetle outbreak or two reasons:

1. Te cancellation ceiling for multiyear contracts (part of the Federal Acquisition Regulations): Te can-cellation ceiling is essentially a bond unded by the Forest Service to cover the maximum amountofacontractorsinvestmentintheeventtheagencycancelsalongtermstewardshipcontract.eappropriatedfundsneededtofulllthecancellationceilingrequirementareencumbered.Inmostcases,thecancellationceilingismorethan$500,000(heldinreserveannually).isrequirementhas been claried and should not be a barrier to using stewardship contracts in the uture.

2. Goods for services: Under a stewardship contract, the contractor doesnt pay or the value o mer-chantable material harvested; instead, the contractor provides services o comparable value to theForest Service. Tis is not useul or areas where the value o the removed material is much lessthan the cost o the removalsuch as lodgepole pine stands killed by bark beetles. Most treat-ments in the outbreak area require appropriated unds to implement.

Region2currentlyhasanLTSCthatcoverspartsoftheArapaho-RooseveltandPikeNationalForests.Approximately 4,000 acres per year are treated.6

3Normal environmental conditions include predictable mortality rom endemic beetle populations in green stands and predict-able growth and mortality o orested stands based on accepted models o orest development. Business as usual means thatthere is adequate milling capacity and unding to remove wood products on a schedule that refects a compromise between

growth rates and mortality rates (an allowable sale quantity assessment would balance natural tree mortality and growth with acomplementary harvest quantity).4Personal Free Use: Small quantities o wood cut or rewood or ence posts or private individuals when removal o the materialis in the governments interest.5 Administrative Free Use: Special-use permittees are allowed to cut wood products to support the purposes o their permit. Forexample, a range permittee would be allowed to cut wood or ence posts used on the permitted range allotment.6Region2isexploringopportunitiesforanotherLTSCinwesternColorado,andevaluatingresponsestoaRequestforInforma -tion.


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Emergency Planning AuthoritiesRegion 2 has ound the expanded authorities in the Healthy Forest Restoration Act (HFRA) very helpulin addressing the outbreak because they streamline the environmental analysis process. Tese authoritiesprovide that:

Onlytheproposedactionandno-actionalternativebeidentiedforprojectswithin1milesofanat-riskcommunity,orintheWUIasdenedinacommunitywildreprotectionplan(CWPP).

OnlytheProposedAction,No-ActionandActionAlternativebeidentiedforprojectsfartherthan1milesoutsideanat-riskcommunityorCWPP-denedboundary.

wo other emergency authorities have been analyzed or use in mitigating the outbreak: a Governorsemergency or disaster declaration and a USDA Secretarial disaster designation. Tese authorities are usedto respond to natural disasters that have overwhelmed the capabilities o local and state governments, orcausedthelossofatleast30%ofonecrop.ereliefprovidedisintheformofassistancetoprivateland-owners; thereore, these types o emergency measures do not aect ederal agency responses.

Evolving Public Acceptance o TreatmentsExperience has shown that some orest management practices that involve cutting trees are more accepted

by the public than others. For example, practices that reduce hazardous uels or encourage the restora-tion o pre-settlement ponderosa pine stands are more acceptable than practices that are undertaken ascommercial orest products management. Project proposals that are viewed as cutting trees or the sakeo cutting trees or eeding the timber industry are routinely appealed; consequently, the projects arenegotiated down to reduced levels o harvest or aected acres.

Current FundingAs noted in Part 1, low unding levels were a contributing actor to low levels o stand density manage-ment in the past. Sustained high-level unding allocations are necessary to accelerate activities or pub-licandemployeesafety,andhazardousfuelsreductionintheWUI.eseactivitiesincludeadditionalNEPA preparation, layout o contract units, and appropriate contract administration. Appropriatedunds have been inadequate to sta up to the level needed or these accelerated activities.

In2008theRegionidentieda$10millionshortfallinthetimberprogramtoaddressimpactsoftheoutbreak.atyear,RegionalForesterCablesformallyrequestedemergencyfundingtoimplementapublic saety strategy, largely due to alling trees. However, program priorities or Forest Health Protec-tion, Forest Management, Hazardous Fuels, and Road Maintenance are aligned around issues other thanhazard tree mitigation. Programs are designed to deal with a recurrent program o work, not a long-term,evolving incident like the bark beetle outbreak. Hazard tree mitigation, especially at a large scale, is not afocusofanyForestServiceprogramarea.Budgetlineitems(BLIs)tendtobealignedaroundfunctionalresource areas, and their relationship to the bark beetle epidemic is not straightorward.

Additionally, the constrained budget leads to only marginal changes in regional allocations, and the bud-

get process and structure only address year-to-year rather than multi-year unding. Te budget processavors a steady-state program o work and lacks a mechanism or Regions to ask or additional undingor emergencies. Generally speaking, there is no clear mechanism in the budget process to ask or specialrecognition or emergency considerations. Te constrained budget approach coupled with high xed costseectively prevents any but the most marginal changes in Regional requests and thereore allocations.Tus, R2 did not have enough discretionary budget ater xed costs to show how much o a shit wasneeded to address the impacts o the bark beetle outbreak.


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ebudgetamountsforbarkbeetlemitigationthroughFY2010aredisplayedinAppendixTwo.InFY2011, a total o $33 million is being directed to mitigation eorts.

Scale o Possible TreatmentsTe actors that limited access to many areas or treatments to maintain orest standssteep slopes, adja-cency to inventoried roadless areas, prohibition o mechanical treatments in designated wildernessare

still applicable today.

Capacity o the Traditional Timber IndustryIntermountainResourcesLCC(IMR),locatedinMontrose,CO,isinreceivership.elastlargemilloperatinginColorado,IMRprocessesmaterialfrombothColoradoandWyoming.Likeotherforestproduct companies across the nation, it is acing an extended downturn in orest product markets. Tecompany is seeking relie rom Forest Service contract requirements or emergency removal o green anddead trees.

ereare25smalloperatorsinColorado,eachwith5to10employees.esesmalloperatorsdonothavethe nancial or physical capacity to respond to the huge number o acres aected by the outbreak. Tematerial to be removed and processed is expensive to transport relative to the value o the product. Tese

small operators primarily produce items such as pellets, ence posts, rails, rough lumber, and specialtyproducts.

InWyoming,anow-closedmillinSaratoga,whichhasa36-millionboardfootcapacity,willcost$4mil-lion to modernize.

BiomassSome new avenues have been developed or utilization o dead standing material, but utilization o largequantities o biomass material is still years away. Te benet/cost ratio or converting municipalities tobiomass-ueled heat or power does not avor use o biomass when compared to natural gas because naturalgascostslessatthistime.WiththeexceptionofabiomassheatingunitinBoulderCounty,therearenolarge biomass utilization units in proximity to the outbreak.

Region2hasbeenapproachedby17companiesinvestigatingtheirabilitytoutilizebiomass.isdem-onstrates the high level o interest in the private sector in utilizing this material. Te national orests inthe Region cannot provide the volume o wood necessary to meet the capacity o all the new companiesseeking certainty o supply. Also, Region 2 has been contacted by many individuals and companies want-ing a guarantee o long-term supply and exclusive rights to wood volume. Federal contracting rules donot allow entering into sole source contracts when there is clear interest rom multiple qualied potentialcontractors. As an alternative, Region 2 has proposed a nontraditional stewardship agreement with theStateofColorado.isagreementwouldgivetheStateanopportunitytoaccessmuchoftheavailablebeetle-killed material and dispose o it according to State procurement and acquisition rules.

erearethreeactivepelletmillsinColorado:RockyMountainPelletsinWalden,ConuenceEnergyinKremmling,andEEPelletsinSilverplume(mobiletechnology).RockyMountainPelletsandConuenceEnergy are each capable o producing about 100,000 tons per year. EE Pellets produces about 20,000tonsperyear.Itisworkingonbuildingfourorveportablemills(Coloradomanufactured).

Small private wood products companies within Region 2 have benetted rom grants provided throughtheForestServicesForestProductsLaboratory.(SeeAppendixFourfordetails.)Althoughsomeopera-


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tors have received nancial and technical assistance to upgrade or expand their businesses, business capac-ity is still insucient to address the needs o orest management on a very large scale.

Intheresearchcommunity,theRockyMountainResearchStation,universitycollaborators,andprivatepartners are studying the economics o biomass utilization, as well as the environmental consequences oadding biomass and biological charcoal (biochar) to orest soils.

Studies o the economics o biomass utilization are investigating options or utilizing orest treatmentresidues or bioenergy production. Tis includes using either ground wood or processed wood to co-re acoal-powered electricity generating acility, and quantiying net greenhouse gas emissions, carbon balance,and energy balance associated with various congurations. Tese alternative congurations help deter-mine the conditions under which utilization o biomass rom orest treatments delivers the greatest neteconomic and environmental value. Economic development impacts, as well as the social acceptabilityo biomass removal and utilization, are a part o these analyses. Studies to investigate alternatives or, andeconomic eciencies o, transporting orest treatment residues rom locations that are not accessible tostandard chip vans (which are not designed or use on orest roads) are also inorming results.

Te potential or manuactured products using pyrolysis (the heating o organic matter to create biochar,

synthetic gas, or bio-oil rom orest residue) oers an additional value-added use or residual or wastematerial rom orest thinning and wood processing. Biochar appears to be useul as a soil amendment;it can enhance the absorption o heavy metals and toxins, suggesting potential uses in mine reclamation;its a precursor to activated carbon or water ltration; and it can potentially be used as a stable orm ocarbon in uture carbon markets. Field, laboratory and greenhouse studies are examining the propertieso biochar, as well as how it can be part o an integrated utilization strategy, or added to a wood process-ing acility as an additional product line.

Myriad conversion technologies are emerging, including new pyrolysis systems. State and ederal landand resource managers, as well as county and municipal managers, need to understand the costs andbenets o biomass utilization at a variety o scales. echnology demonstrations can be an eective part o

outreach programs to increase exposure to new knowledge and emerging results.

While many studies are ongoing, researchers are condent that, in some cases, collecting, processing, andhauling orest treatment residues o site or thermal energy production can substantially reduce green-house gas and particulate matter emissions. (Tis is in comparison to burning those residues on site, andusing either natural gas or uel oil to provide the same amount o usable thermal energy in a boiler.)


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Part III Suggested Extended Authorities

Extension o Temporary Authorities

Congresscouldextend,ormakepermanent,twoauthoritiesthathavebeenveryusefulinrespondingto the outbreak. Both are set to expire on 30 September 2013:

eGoodNeighborAuthorityallowsColoradoForestServiceemployeestoactasagentsfortheederal government to mark and remove trees on NFS land when the work is perormed in con-junction with similar treatments on adjacent non-NFS land.

StewardshipContractingAuthorityallowsagoodsforservicesarrangementwithacontractor.


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Part IV Looking Forward: The New ForestCreating a Resilient Forest

Developing appropriate management responses to bark beetle outbreaks requires understanding the com-plexities o species-specic, multi-scale interactions between beetle and host tree occurring within the tar-getedforestedarea.Italsorequiresunderstandingthelong-terminuencesofthesemanagementactionsat the larger landscape and regional levels. Te unprecedented nature o the current mountain pine beetleoutbreakinColoradoandWyomingmakesmanagementdecisionsmoredicultbecausetheappropriatemanagement response cannot necessarily be ormulated based on previous events. Using lessons learnedrom this outbreak can help orest managers in the uture develop management strategies to amelioratestand conditions which would be predisposed to large-scale insect outbreak.

Tere are some general guidelines, however, that can be used in developing management strategies oruture orests:

Inareasseverelyaectedbyrecentoutbreaks,landmanagersmayconsidercreatingmorediverseorests through modiying species composition and age classes across the landscape. Greater diversi-ty o species and age structure may reduce susceptibility to massive outbreaks in the uture. reat-ments such as these must be initiated early during stand development and continued with relativerequency as stands mature; in other words, proactive stand regeneration is required to maintain ageclass diversity across large landscapes.

Restorationstrategiesforhigh-elevationpineforestsaectedbymountainpinebeetleandblisterrust are needed to ensure perpetuation o these critical ecosystems.

Forestecosystemsthathavehighlysusceptibleforestconditions,butarecurrentlyunaectedbybark beetles, may benet rom thinning to reduce stand density. Tis is particularly true in lodge-pole and ponderosa pine stands where research has shown that thinning can reduce susceptibility.For example, in a diameter-limit thinning study in lodgepole pine on the Shoshone National ForestinWyoming,theinvestigatorsfoundthat26%oftreeswerekilledbymountainpinebeetleinuntreatedcontrolplotscomparedtolessthan3%inthethinningtreatments.

Policymakersandforestryprofessionalscanincorporatedierentclimatechangescenariosaswell


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as the direct and indirect eects o this change on both potential hosts (the trees) and the pest (barkbeetles)when ormulating uture orest management strategies. A greater investment in researchis critical to generating new knowledge and incorporating research results into managers decisionmaking.

Itmaymakesensetopracticeintensivemanagement,suchasapplyinginsecticidesonhigh-valuetrees

on a small scale in areas such as campgrounds or near homes, but such practices are not easible on alandscape scale. At larger scales, lodgepole pine orests aected by mountain pine beetles will regeneratenaturally and a new orest will emerge with time. While dead trees on a mountain slope may not be visu-ally appealing, the orest has been resetnot destroyed.

The Role o Natural Regeneration

InColoradoandWyoming,landmanagersandthepublicareconcernedabouttheextentofpoorseed-lingestablishmentinbeetle-killedlodgepoleforests.Otherconcernsrelatetopotentialchangesinspeciescomposition ater the outbreak, and to the length o time it will take these orests to recover.

eseconcernsarejustied.Owingtotheunprecedentednatureoftheoutbreak,itisunknownifthe

orests that regenerate ater this outbreak will dier rom those that regenerated in the past. Tere areno systematic surveys o regeneration in beetle-killed orests, nor do we have comprehensive inormationabout the number, size, and species o surviving trees where beetles have caused extensive mortality. Bothtypes o inormation are critical to charting a course ollowing the outbreak and assuring investments inregeneration are strategic.

Owingtoterrain,andtobudgetary,economicandregulatorylimitationssuchasprohibitionsonentering roadless areas and designated wildernessactive management will be applied to a small raction(probablylessthan15%)oftheforestareakilledbymountainpinebeetles.Researchstudiesconductedon the Sulphur Ranger District o the Arapaho-Roosevelt National Forest help us understand the implica-tions o this situation.

RecentstudiesconductedbytheRMRSinforeststandsnearFraser,COsuggestthatlodgepolepinewillremain the dominant species in harvested stands over the next century, but subalpine r will becomethe most abundant species in untreated areas. Te long-term consequences o the outbreak will be mostdramatic in untreated areas, where the shit in tree species composition will infuence timber and waterproduction, wildre behavior, wildlie habitat and other orest attributes. Another RMRS study suggeststhat the density o seedlings is at least as high in stands aected by extensive pine beetle-caused mortalityasinstandshavinghealthypre-outbreakconditions.Caremustbetakenwhendrawingconclusionsforthe broader inestation area. Similar studies on-going at a network o sites will complement the need oradditional work across the range o physical and biological conditions to provide a more robust data setrom which we can begin to predict the uture orest and begin to plan how to manage it.

Research gaps in understanding uture orest composition and resilience include the impacts o mechani-

cal uel reduction treatments and post-harvest site preparation in beetle-killed orests on seedling estab-lishment and growth, plant nutrient and moisture relations, and biogeochemical and hydrologic pro-cesses; and the infuence o continuing climate change on orest regeneration and species composition inmountain pine beetle-impacted areas.


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Impacts to Watersheds

Water supply in western North America is controlled primarily by snow accumulation and melt inorested headwater basins. Watershed health and unction in the subalpine zone are controlled by cli-mate, physiography,1 orest cover, and land use. Recent impacts rom the widespread mountain pinebeetle outbreak are exerting a proound eect on orest cover, structure, and species composition. Teseimpacts, in turn, are driving changes in water quantity and qualitytwo important ecosystem servicesprovided by ederally managed orests.

Te mountain pine bark beetle began to attack lodgepole pine at the long-term Forest Service watershedresearchsiteattheFraserExperimentalForest(FEF)in2002.By2007,barkbeetleshadkilledbetween50%and80%oftheoverstorypineinFrasersresearchwatersheds.esuiteofscienticrecordsattheFEFprovidesauniqueopportunitytoquantifytheimpactsofthiswidespreaddisturbance.Consequenc-es o the mountain pine beetle outbreak result rom a combination o short-term and longer-term changesin hydrologic and biogeochemical processes that control delivery o clean water rom orested catchments.Ingeneralterms,canopymortalityfrombarkbeetlesinuencewatershedprocessesinwayssimilartolog-ging or stand-replacing re. However, the impacts o beetle outbreaks to downstream usersassociatedwith the magnitude, timing, and duration o watershed changeare likely to dier dramatically rom log-

ging or res because o the lack o impacts to understory vegetation and soils.

Stream Water Quality: Higher stream water nitrate concentration and export were detected during sixyears ollowing bark beetle mortality; this is likely the result o decreased nutrient demand ollowingmortality o overstory pines (dead trees dont require nutrients). Te increase in concentration and exportin the years ollowing the bark beetle outbreak was small and does not pose a risk to human or streamhealth.

Stream Water Quantity: rees impact runo by returning water to the atmosphere through two impor-tant mechanisms. First, trees use soil water during the growing season through transpiration2, whichmoves water rom the soil back to the atmosphere. Second, tree canopies in snow-dominated regionsintercept snowall, a portion o which then sublimates directly back to the atmosphere beore reaching the

snowpack. Te magnitude o beetle-related changes in transpiration, interception, and runo will dependon three things: the amount o mortality in the stand, the species composition o the remaining overstory,and nally, basin physiography. Earlier empirical work on water yield eects o both harvest and lesser-scale beetle kills provides some basis or predictions.

Te best empirical inormation we have or the region is rom harvesting studies, although limited re-searchonbeetlekillhasshownsimilarmagnitudesofeect.Ourhypothesisisthatbeetlekillwillresultin less yield increase than harvesting. Harvesting typically removes the mature timber and the understoryoverashortperiodoftime,soimpactsareimmediateandprofoundontheorderofa40%increaseinyield averaged over 30 years post-harvest. Beetle-killed mature stands oten leave a healthy understorybehind. Tis understory still consumes water through summertime transpiration and still causes someinterceptionlossesofsnowfall.Itisimportanttonotethatthecurrentbarkbeetleoutbreakisunprec-edented in magnitude and extent, and there may be signicant departures in impacts rom previous beetleinestations.

Futuredetectionofchangedstreamowmaybedicult,aswell.Intheharveststudies,researcherswereable to maintain control watersheds to isolate climate versus land cover changes. Because the beetle kill

1Physiography: physical eatures o the earths surace2Transpirationistheevaporationofwaterfromplants.Itoccurschieyattheleaves.


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has been so widespread, the traditional paired watershed approach cannot be used to separate the eectsofclimatevariationsfromlandcovervariationsasreadilyaswherescienticcontrolisretained.Intheuture, with longer statistical records, and studies using semi-deterministic models, there is a greater prob-ability o detecting and quantiying the eects o the beetle inestation on stream fow and water quality.

Improvedknowledgeandunderstandingofhowcanopylossandtreedeathfollowingmountainpine

beetle inestation alters snow accumulation in winter, and snowmelt, transpiration, nutrient release, andruno processes in spring and summer would improve the precision o water yield predictions and detec-tion.

For more detailed inormation on watershed impacts, see Appendix Five.

Fire Risk and Behavior

Bark beetle outbreaks can result in signicant changes to orest stand structure, and thus to re risks andre behavior. Regardless o beetle activity, re risk and behavior are shaped by:

eamount,type,andconditionofvegetationorfuelsonsite.

efuelsdrynessandexposuretosunandwind.

Topography,elevationandweather.

Te presence o beetle activity adds additional variables to the challenges o predicting and managing rerisks based on:

Speciesofbeetle.

Intensityandrateoftreemortality.

Timesincemortality.

Bark beetle mortality modies canopy uels, surace uels (such as grasses, orbs, shrubs, and downed-woodymaterial),andgroundfuelsofdeadlitterandhumus.Localizedweatherconditionssuchasin-

creased sun, wind, and rain or snow are also modied in proportion to the number o trees killed. Tesechanges are directly linked to changes in the orest water balance that are known to aect uel moisturerelationships, and thereore re behavior.

Te specics o how beetle outbreaks aect the likelihood o a re are poorly understood; this is a topico current research. Te increased presence o ne, dry surace uels implies a greater number o suc-cessul ignitions and can aect re spread. Te degree to which mortality aects re potential dependson the stand structure3priortothebarkbeetleoutbreak,andthelevelofstandmortality.Owingtothecomplexity o the number o sites, beetle outbreak dynamics, and scientic limitations, it is possible todescribe expected uture re potential in only a general way. Real-time re management decisions shouldbe based on local expert knowledge inormed by the context o the specic wildre situation.

Will the beetle outbreaks lead to more requent fres in impacted watersheds?Basic re science principles suggest that opening the orest should lead to dryer surace uels, more sun-shine, and more wind, which will avor increased ignitions and early re spread resulting in more resrequiring management.

3Stand structure: Te quantity, distribution, and horizontal and vertical arrangement o live and dead trees, understory vegeta-tion, woody debris, litter, and humus within a given area.


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Will the bark beetle outbreaks lead to more or less extreme fre behavior?Past experience is largely anecdotal but decades o reghter wisdom suggest res will be more intense oranindeterminateamountoftimefollowingattack.Currentoperationalrebehaviormodelsweredevel-oped or normal healthy orests; they do not include variables that address the phases o beetle attacks:attacked green, attacked yellow, dead-red. (See Appendix Six.)

Te physics and chemistry o re and re weather/climatology suggest all re behavior measures shouldincrease during the attack phase. Following attack, orest composition and structure are undamentally al-tered. Te time-since-outbreak is important in dierentiating eects on ne uels (and thus re spread)and larger uels (which relate to reline construction and oten saety).

Fire behavior can be expected to decline somewhat in the post-attack phase but not return to pre-reconditions.Conditionsforsurfacerespreadareexacerbated,whereasconditionsforcrownrespreadare reduced. However, snags (standing dead trees) present unique re behavior problems, principally as asource or, and recipient o, embers which start new res ahead o the main re.

Will the bark beetle outbreaks lead to larger or more severe fres?Past experience regarding whether res are naturally larger or smaller, or more or less severe, is anecdotal

and inconclusive. Snags constitute a major saety hazard or reghters. Snag mitigation concerns mayreduce reghter eectiveness, leading to larger res.

Heavy downed logs slow reline construction. Moreover, they are associated with extended burning,greater soil heating, sustained smoke production and extended re mop-up, particularly in warmer, dryerforests.Increasedresistancetocontrolimpliesthatreswilleithergrowlargerorrequiremoresuppres-sion resources.

Intensescienticinterestinbarkbeetle-reinteractionsisrelativelyrecentandongoing.Itisclearthatbeetle inestations have a direct eect on wildre potential, and that the degree o infuence can be cat-egorized by phases o the inestation: Are the attacked trees still green? Are there standing dead trees withred needles? Are there allen dead trees that have lost all their needles?

Inaddition,giventhatoperationalremodelsarenotabletoaccountforlowfuelmoisture,newlyde-veloped physics-based models are exploring how attack intensity and patterns, along with variable winds,infuence re spread. Since many o the scientic studies are not yet complete, research can inorm, butthe expert local knowledge o a re suppression practitioner is needed to guide management.

Gaps in knowledge and understanding o re risk and behavior in beetle-killed stands include the observ-able changes in re behavior in beetle-killed stands and how can these observations be eciently and ac-curately obtained (can these observations be used to urther develop predictive models?); how uel dynam-ics ( i.e., spatial and temporal changes in uels: mass, chemistry, moisture, and size distribution) changein beetle-killed stands; how fammability simulation models can be adequately parameterized using these

observations; and , nally, the implications o insect and disease attacks on public and re ghter saety.

For more detailed inormation on re risk and behavior, see Appendix Six.


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Appendices


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Appendix One- Senator Udalls Request


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Appendix Two Funding History o the Rocky Mountain Region (Region 2)

SPFHForestHealthFederalLandsSPS4ForestHealthFederalLands,NationalFirePlan

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

SPFH %USFS Om-nibus

5% 3% 5% 4% 3% 5% 5% 4%

SPFH R2 $ $2,481,000 $1,693,000 $2,883,000 $2,109,000 $1,876,000 $2,656,000 $260,500 $2,327,000

SPS4 %USFS Om-nibus

22% 31% 12% 10% 12% 10% 14% 15%

SPS4 R2 $ $1,492,000 $4,544,000 $1,824,000 $1,436,000 $1,775,000 $1,496,000 $2,490,000 $3,210,000

SPS5 %USFS Om-nibus

12% 11% 9% 9% 14% 12% 13% 8%

SPS5 R2 $ $1,201,000 $1,111,000 $850,000 $850,000 $1,418,000 $1,176,000 $1,271,000 $ 897,000

NFVW% USFSOmnibus

6% 6% 6% 8% 7% 6% 7% 6%

NFVW R2 $ $11,079,00 $12,165,000 $11,799,000 $14,313,000 $12,116,000 $10,761,000 $11,928,000 $12,071,000

NFTM% USFSOmnibus

5% 6% 7% 8% 5% 5% 6% 6%

NFTM R2 $ $14,452,000 $16,388,000 $18,269,000 $21,447,000 $16,868,000 $17,351,000 $18,760,000 $19,974,000

SPS5ForestHealthStateLands,NationalFirePlanNFVWVegetationandWatershed,FederalLand

NFTMTimberManagement,FederalLandOmnibusannualfederalfundinglegislation


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Appendix Three Accomplishments and Remaining Work


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Appendix FourForest Service Biomass Grantsin the Rocky Mountain Region (Region 2)

American Reinvestment and Recovery Act Wood-to-Energy grants: Tree grants were unded andawarded to upgrade and improve wood processing equipment.

ColoradoSpringsUtilities:$250,000forequipmentthatwillfacilitatewoodchipco-ringatratesup to 20 percent in the Drake Power Plant (coal-re).

BoulderCountyParksandOpenSpace:$250,000forinstallationandrefurbishmentofwood-red steam heat system at a county acility, and or equipment that will acilitate better handling owood waste streams coming rom the orest.

ConuenceEnergy:$250,000forwoodprocessingequipmenttofacilitateconversionofbeetle-killed wood into pellets or commercial and home heating use.

Forest Products Lab grants or 2009:reecompaniesinColoradoreceivedfundingforwoodutiliza-tion grants.

IntermountainResourcesLLC(Montrose)received$250,000forachipper/grindertoincreaseef-

ciency in biomass utilization.

IndependentLogging(Alamosa)received$250,000toexpandmilloperationsandequipment.

RougeResources(SteamboatSprings)received$250,000forin-woodsoperationsandmillingequipment.

Forest Products Lab grant or 2010:

WestRangeReclamationreceived$350,000topurchasealogdelimber/debarkerandlogloaderforuseincreatingaproductandmarketforresidualbiomassfromtheFrontRangeLong-TermStew-ardshipContract.


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Appendix FiveImpacts to Watersheds

Water supply in western North America is controlled primarily by snow accumulation and melt in or-ested headwater basins. Watershed health and unction in the subalpine zone are controlled by complexrelationships between climate, physiography, orest cover and land use. Recent impacts rom widespreadmountain pine beetle inestation are exerting a proound impact on orest cover, structure, and speciescomposition. Tese impacts are driving changes in water quantity and quality --two important ecosystemservices provided by ederally managed orests. Te expectation is the inestation will result in quanti-able changes in streamfow and water quality, as well as orest composition and structure.

While there is a desire to predict the eect o the beetle inestation on runo quantity and quality, thecomplexity o watershed and hydrologic processes suggests that such predictions are premature andsubjecttoconsiderableuncertainty.Inadditiontocomplexityofprocesses,inter-annualvariabilityinmeteorology,especiallyprecipitation,makesdetectionofchangesduetotheinfestationproblematic.Inthe uture, with longer statistical records, and studies using semi-deterministic models, there is a greaterprobability o detecting and quantiying the eects o the beetle inestation on streamfow and water qual-ity.

Te mountain pine bark beetle began to attack lodgepole pine at the long-term USFS watershed researchsiteattheFraserExperimentalForestin2002.By2007,barkbeetleshadkilled50%to>80%oftheoverstory pine in Frasers research watersheds. Te hydrologic, climatic, biogeochemical and vegetationrecords available at the Fraser Experimental Forest provide a unique opportunity to quantiy the impactso this widespread and poorly-understood disturbance. Te consequences o the current MPB outbreakwill result rom a combination o short and longer-term changes in hydrologic and biogeochemicalprocessesthatcontrolthedeliveryofcleanwaterfromforestedcatchments.Ingeneralterms,canopymortality rom bark beetles will infuence watershed processes in ways similar to logging or stand-replac-ing re. However, the relevance o beetle outbreaks to downstream users, associated with the magnitude,timing and duration o watershed change are likely to dier dramatically rom logging or res

Stream Water QualityWater fowing rom most undisturbed lodgepole pine ecosystems has a low nutrient content because othe combination o o low soil nutrient supply and high nitrogen (N) demand and retention by vegeta-tionandsoilmicrobes(Faheyetal.1985;Knightetal.1985;Stottlemyeretal.1997).Mortalityoftheorest overstory is sure to lessen N demand, but it is unclear to what extent this will result in measurablechangesinnutrienttransporttostreamwater.Infact,changeinstreamnutrientsfollowingbarkbeetlesmay signal ecosystem response to disturbance rather than a symptom o impaired water quality.

During the rst six years ollowing the onset o bark beetle activity and in basins where bark beetleskilledmorethan70%oftheoverstory,springandlatefallstreamwaternitratewereelevatedcomparedto pre-outbreak concentrations Figure 1). Since ew physical changes have altered orest structure at this

point, the higher stream water nitrate concentration and export are the likely result o decreased nutrientdemand ollowing mortality o overstory pine. However, the increase in concentration and export in theyearsfollowingtheMPBoutbreakweresmallanddonotposearisktohumanorstreamhealth.Indeedthe changes rom extensive MPB-related canopy mortality were less than the scale o natural seasonaluctuationsandtheywere


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Tese ndings rom the long-term Fraser watershed record are substantiated by independent monitoringeortsledbytheUniversityofColoradoandtheUSGeologicalSurveythatalsondmeasureablebutsmallchangesinstreamwaternutrientsfollowingbarkbeetles(Clowetal.2011;Lewisetal.2011).

Stream Water Quantity

rees impact runo by returning water to the atmosphere through two important mechanisms. First,trees use soil water during the growing season through transpiration, which moves water rom the soil ma-trixbacktotheatmosphere.Transpirationmayaccountforlossesofupto50%oftheannualprecipita-tioninsubalpinebasins(Leaf,1975;Kaufman,1985).Second,treecanopiesinsnow-dominatedregionsintercept snowall, a portion o which then sublimates directly back to the atmosphere beore reachingthesnowpack.Canopiesmayinterceptupto60%oftheannualsnowfall(HedstromandPomeroy,1998;

StorckandLettenmaier,1999),and20%to50%oftheannualsnowfallmaysublimatedirectlybacktotheatmospherewithoutproducingruno(TroendleandMeiman,1986;PomeroyandGray,1995;Montesi et al., 2004) Te magnitude o beetle related changes in transpiration, interception, and runo,willdependonthreethingstheeamountofmortalityinthestand,a,thespeciescompositionoftheremaining overstory, and nally basin physiography.

Research at FEF shows that transpiration declines rapidly ollowing a successul beetle attack and that treewater use stops completely by the beginning o the ollowing growing season. As part o an experimentthat implicated beetle induced blue stain ungi as the primary cause o tree mortality ollowing beetle at-tack, researchers showed that transpiration is aected just seven to thirteen days ater beetles rst inect atree(Figure2).Bytheendoftherstgrowingseason,beetle-attackedtreesused50%lesswaterthantrees unaected by beetles and blue-stain ungi. Tis rapid decrease in tree water use means that re-

sidual vegetation will have greater access to soil water and that more water will potentially be available orruno. Te magnitude o these responses remains uncertain but ongoing studies at FEF are quantiyingchanges in tree and stand water use over a range o site conditions.

Figure 1. Stream nitrate concentrations at the USDA For-est Service, Fraser Experimental Forest prior to and during(shaded area) the current mountain pine beetle outbreak.

Figure2.Changeintreewateruseformountain pine beetle attacked trees(MPB ranspiration) versus trees notaected by beetles or blue-stain ungi(ControlTranspiration).Dashedverti-callinesindicate95%condenceinter-

vals around the date that a signicantdecrease in transpiration occurred.


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Changeinforeststructurefollowingforestdisturbancehasthepotentialtosignicantlyaltersnowin-terception during the winter months. Following mountain pine beetle inestations, lodgepole pine treeskilled by beetles lose their needles within three to ve years and all to the ground ve to ten years later(Mitchell and Preisler, 1998). Reduced lea area and openings created by alling trees reduces snow inter-ception and allows more snowall to reach the ground where it accumulates until spring melt and subse-quentruno.DatafromforestinventoryplotsatFEFshowtreebasalareadeclinedby50%inmanaged

basins as a result o the current mountain pine beetle inestation. However, because Engelmann spruceand subalpine r have more lea area per unit stem diameter, lea area losses rom the same basins averagedonly24%(Figure3).

Figure3.LodgepolepineBasalareaandlea area losses due to mountain pinebeetle(MPB)intheEastSaintLouisCreekwatershedatFraserExperimentalForest.(LP=LodgepolePine,ES=En-gelmannSpruce,SAF=subalpiner).

Acomplexrelationshipexistsbetweenchangesininterceptionandtranspirationandstreamow.Othercomplicating actors include orest structure, species composition, local meteorology, and basin physiog-raphy (slope, aspect, elevation, etc.). Previous management studies provide general insights to potentialchanges in streamfow, because there are important similarities between harvest through management andtree mortality rom beetle inestation. Tere are decades o research in the subalpine zone that show thattreeremovalresultsinincreasedruno(e.g.WilmandDunford,1948;VanHaveren,1981;BoschandHewlett,1982;TroendleandKing,1985;TroendleandMeiman,1986;TroendleandKing,1987).Ingeneral, increased streamfow will result rom harvesting and the magnitude o the increase will be propor-tionaltothebasalarearemoved.AttheFraserExperimentalForest,a50%removalofthetimberfromtheFoolCreekbasinresultedina40%increaseinowovertherst30yearsofpost-treatmentrecord(TroendleandKing,1985).Aa29%increasehasbeenrecordedovera50yearpost-treatmentperiod(Elder, unpublished data).

Tere are, however, complicating actors that make simple prediction o increased fows subject to consid-erableuncertainty.Inordertodetectthechangeinow,theremustbeaminimummeanannualsnowfallo about 800 mm (water equivalent). oo much basal area removal may result in snowpack loss due toredistribution and sublimation. Dierences between harvest methods and impacts versus beetle-relatedmortality urther cloud our ability to accurately predict changes in streamfow resulting rom the currentinestation. Harvesting typically removes the mature timber and the understory over a short period o


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time, so impacts are immediate and proound. Beetle-killed mature stands oten leave a healthy under-story behind. Tis understory still consumes water through summertime transpiration and still suersinterception losses o snowall. Tere is also a multi-year lag between tree inestation and eventual treeremoval. Te tree may maintain a green canopy or up to a year, ollowed by red needles, needle loss,branch loss and eventual tree all. Tis progression may last several years and will produce a slow changein the trees ability to intercept snow. At the stand or basin level, this progression will result in a slow

change in sublimation loss and runo generation. At the same time, the understory water consumptionmay be increasing through transpiration, thus osetting water savings rom reduced snowall interception.erearefewstudiesthathavequantiedstreamowchangesfollowingMPBinfestation(Love,1955;Bethlamy,1975;Potts,1984),andtheirresultssuggestvariable,butsimilarresultstosomeeectsofforestharvesting. However, it is important to note that the current MPB outbreak is unprecedented in mag-nitude and extent, a there will likely be signicant departures rom both previous beetle inestations andharvests.

Inadditiontothecomplexityofprocessesdescribedabove,inter-annualvariabilityinmeteorology,especially precipitation, makes detection o changes due to the inestation problematic. Figure 4 shows agraphofarelationshipbetweenaheavilyinfestedbasin(EastStLouis),andacontrolbasin(BrushCreek)

thathadlittlebeetlepresencefortheperiodgraphed.eyearsfollowingtheinfestationinEastSt.LouisCreek(2003)areshownwithdierentsymbols(2004-2007).Notethatthevaluesallfallwellwithinthe95%condenceintervalthatindicatesnosignicantchangefromthepreviousrelationship.

Figure4.PredictedannualowfromEastSt.LouiscreekfromobservedowinBrushCreek.Mountainpinebeetleinfestationwasrstobservedin2003intheEastSt.LouisCreekwatershed.BrushCreekwasnotsignicantlyaectedthroughtheperiodshown.e95%condencelimitswerecalculatedbasedonthe pre-inestation record.


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Appendix SixFire Risk and Behavior

Bark beetle outbreaks can result in signicant changes to orest stand structure and thus, to re risks andre behavior.

Factors shaping fre risk and behavior

Regardless o beetle activity, re risk and behavior are shaped by:

eamount,typeandconditionofvegetation,orfuels,onsite,

efuelsdrynessandexposuretosunandwind,and

Topography,elevationandweather.

Te presence o beetle activity adds additional variables to the challenges o predicting and managing rerisks based on:

Speciesofbeetle,

Intensityandrateoftreemortality,and

Timesincethemortality.

Bark beetle mortality modies the canopy uels, surace uels such as grasses, orbs, shrubs, and downed-woodymaterial,andgroundfuelsofdeadlitterandhumus.Localizedweatherconditionssuchasin-creased sun, wind, and rain or snow are also modied in proportion to the number o trees killed. Tesechanges are directly linked to changes in the orest water balance which are known to aect uel moisturerelationships, and thereore re behavior.

Intensescienticinterestinbarkbeetle-reinteractionsisrelativelyrecentandisongoing.Itisclearthatbeetle inestations have a direct eect on wildre potential, and that the degree o infuence can be catego-rized by the phase o the inestation: attacked green, attacked yellow, standing dead red, standing/allendead grey, and allen gray/new green.

Since much o the scientic studies are not yet complete, research can inorm, but expert local knowledgeis needed to guide management.

Summary o research and fndings pertaining to the relationship between beetle outbreaks andfre risk and behavior

Will the beetle outbreaks lead to more requent fres in impacted watersheds? Basicrescienceprinciplessuggestthatopeningtheforestshouldleadtodryersurfacefuels,more

sunshine, and more wind which will avor increased ignitions and early re spread resulting in moreres requiring management.

Will the bark beetle outbreaks lead to more or less extreme fre behavior? Pastexperienceislargelyanecdotalbutdecadesofreghterwisdomsuggestreswillbemoreintense or an indeterminate amount o time ollowing attack.

Currentoperationalrebehaviormodelsweredevelopedfornormal,healthyforestsanddonotinclude variables that address the phases o beetle attacks: attacked green, attacked yellow, dead-red.


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ephysicsandchemistryofreandreweather/climatologysuggestallrebehaviormeasuresshould increase during the attack phase.

Followingattackforestcompositionandstructurearefundamentallyaltered.Firebehaviorcanbeexpectedtodeclinesomewhatinthepostattackphasebutnotreturntopre-reconditions.Condi-tions or surace re spread are improved whereas conditions or crown re spread are reduced.However, snags, standing dead trees, present unique re behavior problems, principally as a sourceor, and recipient o, embers which start new res ahead o the main re.

Will the bark beetle outbreaks lead to larger or more severe fres? Pastexperienceregardingwhetherresarenaturallylarger/smallerormore/lesssevereisanecdotal

and inconclusive.

Snagsconstituteamajorsafetyhazardforreghters.Safetyconcernswillreducereghteref-ectiveness leading to larger res.

Heavydownedlogsslowrelineconstruction.eincreasedresistancetocontrolimpliesreswilleither grow larger or require more suppression resources.

Heavydownedlogsareassociatedwithextendedburning,greatersoilheating,sustainedsmoke

production and extended re mop-up, particularly in warmer-dryer orests.

Additional Inormation

Te specics o how beetle outbreaks aect the likelihood that a re will start is poorly understood and atopic o current research. Te increased presence o ne, dry surace uels implies greater number o suc-cessul ignitions. Te degree to which mortality aects re potential depends on the stand structure1 priortothebarkbeetleoutbreak,andthelevelofstandmortality.Owingtothecomplexityofthenumberofsites, beetle outbreak dynamics, and scientic limitations it is only possible to describe expected uture repotential in a general way. Management decisions should be based on local expert knowledge cognizanto the context or the decision. Scientic limitations are less critical in vegetation management planningdecisions than in real-time re management actions.

Phase I Attacked Green

Prior to beetle attack oliage is green and moisture contents are normal, around 100 to 110 percent byweight. Shortly ater successul beetle attack, within one- or two-weeks, ungal associates o the beetlesdisrupt sap fow in the tree limiting the normal cycle o nighttime replenishment o canopy moisture.Onceattackedfoliarmoisturedropsslightlyandneedlechemistrychanges(JollyandParsons,inprog-ress and Gibson and Negron, 2009). At least by the start o the rst ull year ollowing successul attack,trees lose the physiological capacity to limit moisture loss, needles die and rapidly dry. Evidence suggestsignition time, the amount o heat and time required to ignite a uel, decreases even beore symptoms arevisible.

1VegetationStructure:equantity,distribution,andhorizontalandverticalarrangementofliveanddeadtrees,understoryvegetation, woody debris, litter and humus within a given area.


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Condition Color Foliar Moisture Content (%) Ignition Time (sec.)

Unattacked Green 100 - 110 30 - 42

Attacked(Initial) Green 90 - 100 18 - 32

Attacked (Dying) Yellow to bu 90to50(rapiddecline) 15-28

Dead Red 10 - 19 11-15

Snag Grey n.a. (no oliage) n.a.

Phases II and III Attacked Yellow and Standing Dead Red

Initiallyignitiontimedropsbyaboutone-thirdandcrownrepotentialincreasessomewhat.Oncefoli-age transitions to visibly yellowed needle moisture content is hal that o normal oliage, with a compa-rable reduction in ignition time. Te decrease in oliar moisture content eectively reduces the crown baseheight o a tree (Keyes 2006). Tus, res can more easily transition rom a surace re to a crown re atlower fame lengths and reline intensity (Keyes 2006, Gibson and Negron 2009). Te correspondingincrease in re intensity and spotting implies that reghter saety zones need to be larger and deensiblespacearoundinfrastructureandhomes(homeignitionzone)(Cohen2000)needstobewider.

Changesinrebehaviordependontheseverityandsequenceofbeetleattack.Forreasonsnotfullyun-derstood some attacks are relatively uniorm over large areas and most trees are attacked over a short time.Incontrastinotherareasbeetlesattackandkilltreestovaryingdegreesoverthreetosevenyears.eseverity and sequence determine how much live vs. dead uel is in the orest canopy at any point duringthe outbreak, and thus the re potential.

Phase IV Standing and Fallen Grey

Oncethedeadneedlesfallfromtreesfuelandredynamicschange.Initiallymoresoilmoistureisavail-able to keep ground uels (humus and rotten logs) and surace vegetation/uels moist. While more sun-light increases the drying rate o dead surace uels the understory uels beneath more open orests are alsomoreexposedtorainfallandhumidityeventsduringthereseason.Itisalsoreasonabletoexpectthatlive understory vegetat

review of the forest service response: the bark beetle outbreak in northern colorado and southern...

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