review of the ncep production suite: recent changes and plans marine modeling and analysis branch...
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Review of the NCEP production Suite:Recent Changes and Plans
Marine Modeling and Analysis BranchWaves Group
EMC/NCEPArun ChawlaWaves Team LeadMarine Modeling and Analysis BranchNOAA / NWS / NCEP / [email protected]
WHERE AMERICA’S CLIMATE WEATHER AND OCEAN SERVICES BEGIN
NCEP Production Review 2014 2
Wind waves• Operational models running at NCEP
– Multi-1 global model.– Multi-2 global hurricane model.– 2 Great lakes NAM / NDFD– Ensemble Wave model
• In Development– Nearshore Wave Prediction System
12/3/2014
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Global Wave model (Multi-1)• All grids upgraded to
ETOPO1 bathymetry• Mask files updated to
enhance coverage in regional 10 arc minute grids
• No physics changes but some differences in results close to coast due to changes in bathymetry
12/3/2014
NCEP Production Review 2014 4
Extended domains (black lines) in the regional grids
Multi_1 (contd.)
12/3/2014
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Upgrades to Multi-1 (next year)
Physics package Upgrade : More wave energy in previous regions of negative bias
Extend grid domain to the North Pole by replacing regular Arctic grid with a curvilinear Arctic grid
12/3/2014
NCEP Production Review 2014 6
Hurricane Wave model (Multi_2)
• Hurricane wave model upgraded to new physics package (already in global, great lakes and ensemble wave models)– Includes new packages for wave growth
dissipation (due to wave breaking) and swell dissipation
• Hurricane winds now provided by the HWRF models
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Multi_2 (contd.)
• Impact– Better representation of wave height at peak
storm– Faster response to Hurricanes (for both growth
and dissipation)– Better spectral representation, and consequently
better representation of storm wave arrival times• A 10% error in peak period ~ 35 min error for a 15 s
wave travelling 500 km
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NCEP Production Review 2014 812/3/2014
Retrospective Forecasts (Hurricane Sandy)Multi_2 (contd.)
Black – New modelCyan – Ops
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f/fp
S/Sp
Frequency Spectra at buoy 41048
Sp, fp – Maximum spectral peak and location of spectral peak from data
More accurate representation of peak frequency leading to better estimates of storm arrival times
Multi_2 (contd.)
12/3/2014
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Global Ensembles
• Upgraded physics package– New physics package now same in all wave modeling
systems• Increased spatial grid resolution from 1o x 1o to
0.5ox0.5o
• Changes to Initialization / cycling– More in line with the GEFS (for future coupling)– Has an impact on spread and accuracy– Conserves swell perturbations– Provides 80 members over a 24 Hr cycle
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Validation over a 2.5 month period
Ensembles (contd.)
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Tp (s
)Tp
(s)
Ensembles (contd.)
Retrospective runs during Hurricane Sandy
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Great Lakes Models
• Updated the grids– Higher resolution curvilinear grid – More accurate coastline
• Higher resolution 2.5 Km NAM smartinit winds• New ice concentrations
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New Grid
Effect of higher resolution grid
Strong westerlies
Oct 3rd 2014
NCEP Production Review 2014
Great Lakes (contd.)
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Resolution ~ 4 km Resolution ~ 2.5 km
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• Higher resolution winds– Current operations: 12km NAM– Upgrade: 2.5km from NAM 4km
Higher Resolution winds
NCEP Production Review 2014
Great Lakes (contd.)
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• Intake of new ice concetrations– NAM ice mask (from
NIC) is extremely conservative
– Large areas where there should be waves are masked out
– Solution:• NIC ice concentrations• Bob Grumbine’s
conditional climatology (whenever NIC fails…)
Ice Concentrations
NCEP Production Review 2014
Great Lakes (contd.)
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Nearshore Wave Prediction System(Under Development)
Max. coastal resolution = 4 arc min (7.5 km)
Current WW3 global grid mosaic
Desired nearshore application
Required nearshore resolution < 500 m
Motivation
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Nearshore Wave Prediction System at coastal forecast offices
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NWPS Architecture2 approaches
• Local (Original development)– Run locally (at WFOs), routinely/on-demand, using
SWAN or nearshore WWIII – Driven by forecaster-developed winds from GFE (AWIPS
II), and external sources (e.g. WWIII, RTOFS/ESTOFS).– Requires computational resources at local WFOs
• Remote (New development)– Run on NCEP resources– WFOs retain control on forcings / local features– Limited on demand capability
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NWPS
Additional wave output (NetCDF, HDF5, GRIB2)
SWAN
WWIII Boundary
Conditions
Water levels/CurrentsRTOFS/
ESTOFS/PSurge
Ext. winds, GFS/ECMWF/TCM
Other Input
WWIII
FC WindsFC Guidance Products
EDEX(Data Server)
CAVE(D2D, GFE)
NDFD (total field; partitions)
FTP/LDM
ADCIRC
CAVE: Common AWIPS Visualization EnvironmentEDEX: Environmental Data ExchangeLDM: Local Data Manager
GRIB2
12/3/2014
NWPS (contd.)
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On-demand implementation on WCOSSNew Architecture
NCEP/WCOSS
Puerto RicoAm. Samoa
Guam
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NWPS on WCOSS
SWANWW3 Boundary Conditions;
RTOFS Surface Currents;ESTOFS/P-Surge Water levels
WWIII
GFE winds; control files
FC guidance products
EDEX(Data Server)
CAVE(D2D, GFE)
AWIPS2
NDFD (total field; partitions)
ADCIRC
CAVE: Common AWIPS Visualization EnvironmentEDEX: Environmental Data ExchangeLDM: Local Data Manager
GRIB2LDM
via
HQ
SBN
(Staged on WCOSS)
12/3/2014
NWPS (contd.)
NCEP Production Review 2014 23
WCOSS
Regional HQ
6 nodes reserved (96 compute cores)
WFO WFO
Satellite network (ouput)
data data
data
GRID fileDOMAIN fileCONTROL file
WFO
data
TAFB/OPC
Hurricane wave BCs
NCWCP
data
NWPS on-demand central computing
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NCEP Production Review 2014 24
WCOSS implementation schedule
Jul14
Aug14
Sep14
Oct14
Nov14
Dec14
Jan15
Feb15
Mar 15
Apr15
May15
Jun15
Finalize initial WCOSS development
Developer testing on WCOSS, incl. data upload, run triggeringInitial EE setup (NCO Support)
Code delivered to NCO
TIN issued; CCB approves parallel data feed; 30-day parallel testing at NCOIT testing at NCO
Management Briefing & implementationAWIPS2 build v14.4.1
12/3/2014
NWPS (contd.)