revolution millenia china

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Southern Political Science Association

Revolution and the Millennium: China, Mexico, and Iran by James F. RinehartReview by: Jack A. GoldstoneThe Journal of Politics, Vol. 61, No. 1 (Feb., 1999), pp. 265-267Published by: Cambridge University Press on behalf of the Southern Political Science AssociationStable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/2647805 .

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Book Reviews 265Yet, it would be misleading to suggest that the Nuffield study is merely ahighly valuable chronicle of events. It is also an interpreter f those events, sum-marizing those factors that pushed the British electorate one way ratherthan

another.The consensus of opinion (endorsed here by Butler and Kavanagh) sthat the outcome of the 1997 GeneralElection was largely determinedby twoevents. The first was "BlackWednesday" when Britainwas forcedto leave theEuropean Exchange Rate Mechanism an event that shattered the Conserva-tives' reputation for economic (or more general governing) competence. Thesecondwas the election of TonyBlair as leaderof the LabourPartyin 1994 andthe emergence of New Labour,a partywhose very purpose was to remove doubtabout Labour's itness for office.The consensus is very probably correct, but it is worth pausinghere to notetwo things. First, direct informationabout shifting evaluationsof the electoratefrom the British Election Study is not yet available. Any conclusions shouldthereforebe regardedas highly provisional.Second, in many ways the most in-teresting question about the 1997 GeneralElection can be posed in terms of twocounterfactuals: 1) What would have been the result if Britain had not left theERM and Tony Blair had not created New Labour?(2) What would have beenthe result if John Smith had not died and New Labourhad not been createdinany recognizable form? Butler and Kavanaghdo not offer their own specula-tions.Yet,I suspect that much subsequentresearchwill focus on these questions,particularlyas "old" Labour supportersbegin to doubt the necessity of NewLabour's inancialorthodoxyand GordonBrown's ron controlof publicspending.These reservationsaside, the Nuffield studies remainthe most comprehensiveand compelling accounts of British general elections. For serious students ofBritishpolitics this is a must read.

JohnBartle, Universityof Essex, England

Revolutionand theMillennium:China, Mexico, and Iran. By JamesE Rinehart.(Westport,CT: Praeger, 1997. Pp. 194. $59.95.)This is not a full-fledged examinationof these three revolutions, heir causes andoutcomes, and the details of their unfolding. However, t is a valuable antidote ooverly structuralaccounts of revolution, demonstrating he role of key ideas inthe motivationof revolutionary eaders and their followers.Rinehartdoes not excludematerialandpolitical factors; ndeed,one of his threechief causes of millennial enthusiasm s social distressand dislocation,most oftenbroughton by encounterswith imperialist oreignpowers.But neitherdoes he delveinto those materialand political factorsin any detail. Rather,his task and this isadmirably arriedout is to show how traditionalmillennial hemesfromChinese,Amerindian, nd Shia Islamicbelief systems suffusedandhelped deepen he appealof such modern revolutionary deologies as nationalismand communism.

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266 Book ReviewsRevolutionand theMillenniumhasonemajor flaw.Itis a textbookexampleoftheproblems hat can arise fromselecting cases on only one outcome (radicalrevolu-tionary change) of the dependentvariable. Over and over,one finds conditions

attributed o China,Mexico, andIran hatcould be foundin almost all otherdevel-oping countries in the world. Rinehart lists three conditions for revolutionarymillenarianismo emerge: 1) adurable raditionof religiously nspiredmillenarianbeliefs; (2) social disorderanddislocation,due to factorsthatare "unclear o themass of the population," nd (3) the emergenceof a charismatic eader(32-33).These conditions do not constitutea theory of the necessary and sufficientconditions for millenarianrevolution,as one can easily think of exceptions. Inthe Philippines' "People Power" revolution of 1986, centuries of Christianityprovided a durable traditionwith millenarianbeliefs, social disorder due tocronyism, nflation,andexcessive U.S. influencewere comparable o thatin Iran,andCory Aquino emergedas a charismatic eader.Yet the Philippines'revolutionwas an extremely moderate,not radicalrevolution; ndeed the "radical" evolu-tionariesof the New People'sArmy were isolated and ineffectual.One can alsopoint to the overthrowof the East Germancommunistregime, which occurredwithout a charismatic eader,as a converse case. Rinehart's hree conditions aretherefore better thought of as "common background factors" ratherthan as awell-formulated heoryof essential conditions for radicalchange.This limitationaside, Rineharthas many interestingthings to say aboutmil-lenarianism, ts role in revolutionsin general, and the millenarian raditions nthese three countries.Those familiarwith currentaccounts of ShiaIslam will notbe surprised o read about the role of millenarianbeliefs in gaining supportforthe revolution against the Shah. However, many may be less familiar with thelong history of apocalypticbeliefs among native Mesoamericans hat motivateduprisings against the Spanish, or the long history of Buddhistand Taoist mil-lenarianbeliefs that inspiredpeasant rebellions in China.Nonetheless, Rinehart s quite clear that the traditionalmillenarianbeliefs ofnon-Westerncultures have not been sufficient to generate radicalrevolutionarymovements.Thetypical Mahdistrebellionin Islamicsocieties, or Buddhistpeas-ant rebellion in China,although focusing on charismatic eaders,looked mainlybackward o a "golden age" that would be restored,rather han to a utopianfu-ture. These movements also rarely gained elite support,as their heterodoxieswere not attractive o the purveyorsof mainstreamconservative culture.It wasonly when such traditionalbeliefs became tangled up with, or succeeded by, aChristianor secular deology of utopianchangethat modernrevolutionarymove-ments emerged.Forexample, in Chinathe firstreallyradicalrevolutionarymovement was theTaipingRebellion of the 1850s, whose leaderHungHsiu-ch'uanabsorbedChris-tian beliefs and saw himself as the youngerbrotherof Jesus.Althougheventuallydefeated,Hung'smix of egalitarianism, topianism,andanti-Manchudeology at-tracted a wide range of followers, from local elites, urban workers, and the



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Book Reviews 267peasantry.The later nationalistand communist revolutions, in Rinehart'sview,drewupona legacyof revoltsand idealismthat ncluded heTaipingRebellion,theBoxers, and other secretsocieties that had held up egalitarian deals and opposedManchu rule. In Mexico, traditionalnative beliefs in a savior became blendedwith, while largely supersededby, the vision of theVirgin of Guadalupe.The Vir-gin provideda banner hat was bothnativistand utopian,and helpedgalvanize theIndianrevoltsin Morelos that were a critical element in the MexicanRevolution.Finally, n Iran, he traditionalShia belief in a futuresavior was partlysecularizedandturned ntoanactivistpoliticalprogrambythe Iranian ociologistAli Shariatri.Shariatri rgued hat the periodpriorto the returnof the hiddenImamshouldnotbe a time of passive waiting, but of active creationof a betterworldin line with Is-lamic principles. Shariatri's nnovative version of Shia Islam helped inspireeducatedelites to join with Khomeini'santi-Shahmovement.In China, Mexico, and Iran, therefore, the revolutionary ideologies of thetwentiethcenturywere not simply recent imports,nor old traditions,but ratherablend of both. By showing how in all these cases the revolutionary deologiesdrew their vision and future-orientedplans for change from more recent ideo-logical innovations, but drew their emotive power from associations withcenturies-oldegalitarian,millenarian,and antiforeign ideals, Rineharthelps usunderstand he fervor inspiredby these revolutionaryprograms.One final note: Rinehartsometimes is carriedawaywith the utopianideas hedescribes,and thus greatly understates he darkerside of these revolutions. Henotes the defeat of the Zapata-ledmovement for Indian andsin Morelos, but notthe long-term deteriorationof Indianfarm communities throughoutMexico inrecent decades.He notes thatthe Chinese "experience" esultedin the deaths of"tensof thousandsof people"(173), but not that the GreatLeapForward whichRinehartdescribes as another element inspired by millenarianvisions of sud-denly achieved utopia) resulted in perhaps thirty million deaths. He notes thatmillenarian revolutions have "therapeutic" ffects of identity affirmation andcatharsisfor revolutionaryactors,but fails to note the effects of such "therapy"on the revolutions'victims.In short,this is a useful book, but its limitationsneed to be kept in mind. Ifyou don'trely on this book as a majorsource of insighton these revolutions,butas a useful examinationof one aspect, it is a solid contribution.

JackA. Goldstone, Universityof California,Davis

Peronism without Perkn: Unions, Parties, and Democracy in Argentina. ByJames W McGuire. (Stanford: Stanford University Press, 1997. Pp. xvii,388. $49.50.)James McGuire sure-handedly extualizes the development of Peronism and itsrelationship o the Argentine radeunion movement.He labors in these vineyards


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