REW: Renewable Energy Generation with Small Wind Systems Dennis Scanlin

Appalachian State University Wind Application Center

• Funding from DOE, NC State Energy Office, TVA, Wind Industry

• Goals– Test & Demonstrate turbines– Technical Assistance– Workshops– Presentations – Resource Assessment – Anemometer Loan Program– Wind for Schools

• wind.appstate.edu

• Call or email for a consultation– wind@appstate.edu– 828-262-7333

Workshop ScheduleNovember 2 – 4:

• Intro to Wind• Wind Resource Assessment

Techniques• Met. Tower Installation

November 9 – 11: • Turbine Technology• Energy Production Estimating

Wind Resource Assessment Workshop

• Agenda– Friday, November 2nd

• 8:30 – 8:45 Introductions• 8:45 – 10:00 Intro to Wind

Energy• 10:00 – 10:15 Break• 10:15 – 11:30 Wind

Resource Assessment• 11:30 – 12:30 Wind map

Activity• 12:30 – 1:30 Lunch

• 1:30 – 3:00 Met Towers & Sensors

• 3:00 – 3:15 Break• 3:15 – 4:30 Laying

out, building and setting up a met tower

• 4:30 – 5:30 Met Tower layout activity

Wind Resource Assessment Workshop

• Agenda– Saturday, 11/5

• 8:30 – 9:30 Review tower construction & raising

• 9:30 – 11:30 Tower Raising• 11:30 – 12:30 Sensors & data loggers• 12:30 – 1:30 Lunch• 1:30 – 3:00 Installation of sensors &

data logger• 3 – 3:15 Break• 3:15 – 4:30 Analyzing Wind data• 4:30 – 5:30 NRG Symphonie Data

Retriever Software

– Sunday, 11/16• 8:30 – 10:00 Met Tower

takedown• 10:00 – 11:00

Windographer Software Intro

• 11 – 12:30 Windographer activity

Wind Energy Intro

Wind Energy Benefits

1. Economically competitive

2. Valuable crop of the future for farmers and ranchers

3. Unlike most other energy sources, wind turbines don’t consume water

4. Indigenous, homegrown energy source that contributes to national security

5. Inexhaustible and infinitely renewable

6. Many environmental benefits

7. Reduces the risk of volatile fossil fuel prices

8. The fuel of today and tomorrow

9. Can be used in a variety of applications

10.People want renewable energy

Wind Power has become the least expensive and fastest growing source of electricity in the world

• Annual average growth rate over last ten years more than 30%; 24% in 2011

• Currently close to 250,000 MW installed

• Powering nearly 75 million homes

• 10% world’s electricity by 2020 if current trends continues (DOE estimate)

Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC) –www.gwec.net

Why such growth…costs!

1979: 40 cents/kWh

• Increased Turbine Size

• R&D Advances

• Manufacturing Improvements

NSP 107 MW Lake Benton wind farm

4 cents/kWh (unsubsidized)

2011: 5 cents/kWh

2000:4 - 6 cents/kWh

Annual & Cumulative Installed World Capacity in MW, 2011

World PV Capacity, 2010

Installed Wind capacity is 6 times larger than PV

2010 Cumulative Installed PV Capacity

2011 US Energy Consumption by Source

• 6.8 GW of wind power added in 2011 in U.S., 31% higher than in 2010 • $14 billion invested in wind power project additions• Cumulative wind power capacity up by 16%, bringing total to 47 GW

Wind Power Additions Increased in 2011, but Remained Below 2008 and 2009 Levels

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Annual US Capacity (left scale)

Cumulative US Capacity (right scale)

Cum

ulat

ive

Cap

acity

(G

W)

Ann

ual C

apac

ity (

GW

)

Wind Power Comprised 32% of Electric Generating Capacity Additions in 2011

• Wind power in 2011 was again the 2nd-largest resource added (after gas, and for the 6th time in the past seven years)

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2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Tota

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(GW

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Wind Gas Coal

Other Renewable Other Non-Renewable Wind (% of Total)

Win

d Ca

pacit

y Ad

ditio

ns(%

of T

otal

Ann

ual C

apac

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dditi

ons)

Despite Ongoing Proliferation of New Entrants, “Big 3” Turbine Suppliers Gained Market Share

• Increase in number of turbine vendors serving market since 2005, but top three (in aggregate) have gained market share since 2008-09

• 2011 installations by Chinese and South Korean manufacturers included: Sany Electric, Samsung, Goldwind, Hyundai, Sinovel, and Unison

0%

10%

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2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Other

Acciona

Gamesa

REpower

Clipper

Nordex

Mitsubishi

Suzlon

Siemens

Vestas

GE Wind

Tur

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ark

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TO

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Approximate Wind Penetration, end of 2011

Approximate Wind Penetration, end of 2010

Approximate Wind Penetration, end of 2009

Approximate Wind Penetration, end of 2008

Approximate Wind Penetration, end of 2007

Approximate Wind Penetration, end of 2006

Est

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U.S. Lagging Other Countries in Wind As a Percentage of Electricity Consumption

Note: Figure only includes the 20 countries with the most installed wind power capacity at the end of 2011

Note: Numbers within states represent cumulative installed wind capacity and, in parentheses, annual additions in 2011.

California Added the Most Wind Capacity in 2011; Six States Exceed 10% Wind Energy

At end of 2011:

• Texas continued to lead in cumulative capacity, by a large margin

• 20 states had >500 MW of capacity (8 had >2000 MW)

• 2 states had the ability to provide >20% of total in-state generation from wind (6 states >10%, 14 states >5%)

Capacity (MW) Percentage of In-State Generation Annual (2011) Cumulative (end of 2011) Actual (2011)* Estimated (end of 2011)**

California 921 Texas 10,394 South Dakota 22.3% South Dakota 22.1%

Illinois 692 Iowa 4,322 Iowa 18.8% Iowa 20.0%

Iowa 647 California 3,917 North Dakota 14.7% Minnesota 14.9% Minnesota 542 Illinois 2,742 Minnesota 12.7% North Dakota 14.1%

Oklahoma 525 Minnesota 2,718 Wyoming 10.1% Colorado 10.7% Colorado 506 Washington 2,573 Colorado 9.2% Oregon 10.5%

Oregon 409 Oregon 2,513 Kansas 8.2% Idaho 9.7%

Washington 367 Oklahoma 2,007 Idaho 8.2% Kansas 9.2% Texas 297 Colorado 1,805 Oregon 8.2% Oklahoma 9.1%

Idaho 265 North Dakota 1,445 Oklahoma 7.1% Wyoming 8.8% Michigan 213 Wyoming 1,412 Texas 6.9% Texas 7.3%

Kansas 200 New York 1,403 New Mexico 5.4% Maine 6.5% Wisconsin 162 Indiana 1,340 Washington 5.3% New Mexico 5.8%

West Virginia 134 Kansas 1,274 Maine 4.5% Washington 5.5%

Maine 131 Pennsylvania 789 Montana 4.2% California 4.7% New York 129 South Dakota 784 California 4.0% Montana 3.8%

Nebraska 125 New Mexico 750 Illinois 3.1% Illinois 3.7% Utah 102 Wisconsin 631 Hawaii 3.1% Hawaii 3.7%

Ohio 102 Idaho 618 Nebraska 2.9% Indiana 3.0% South Dakota 75 West Virginia 564 Indiana 2.7% Nebraska 2.9%

Rest of U.S. 274 Rest of U.S. 2,915 Rest of U.S. 0.4% Rest of U.S. 0.5%

TOTAL 6,816 TOTAL 46,916 TOTAL 2.9% TOTAL 3.2% * Based on 2011 wind and total generation by state from EIA’s Electric Power Monthly. ** Based on a projection of wind electricity generation from end-of-2011 wind power capacity, divided by total in-state electricity generation in 2011. Source: AWEA project database, EIA, Berkeley Lab estimates

Average Turbine Size Increased in 2011

• 42% of turbines installed in 2011 were > 2.0 MW, up from 28% in 2010, 24% in 2009, 20% in 2008, 16% in 2006 & 2007, and just 0.1% in previous years

0.72 MW0.89 MW

1.23 MW

1.46 MW1.60 MW 1.65 MW 1.67 MW

1.74 MW 1.80 MW1.97 MW

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0.75

1.00

1.25

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1.75

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2.25

1998-99 2000-01 2002-03 2004-05 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

1,431 1,974 1,687 1,900 1,530 3,190 5,014 5,736 2,902 3,464

1,029 1,751 2,080 2,769 2,453 5,249 8,360 9,997 5,210 6,816

COD:

Turbines:

MW:

Ave

rage

Tur

bine

Siz

e (M

W)

Sizes and Applications

Small (100 kW)• Homes (Grid connected)• Farms• Remote Applications (e.g. battery charging,

water pumping, telecom sites, grid-tie)

Intermediate (100 kW – 1MW)

• Village / Farm Power

• Community Wind

Large (1MW-5MW)• Wind Farms• Offshore Wind Generation

Average Hub Heights and Rotor Diameters Have Increased Over Time

• On average, since 1998-99, hub heights are 25 meters (45%) higher and rotor diameters are 41 meters (86%) larger

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1998-991,4031,001

2000-011,9741,751

2002-031,6832,074

2004-051,9182,734

20061,4772,402

20073,1905,249

20085,0048,349

20095,7339,993

20102,9015,208

20113,4646,816

Rotor Diameter

Hub Height

COD:Turbines:

MW:

Ave

rage

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or D

iam

eter

and

Hub

Hei

ght (

m)

Utility Project Ownership Increased in 2011, but IPP Ownership Remained Dominant

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1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20110%

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Other

Publicly Owned Utility (POU)

Investor-Owned Utility (IOU)

Independent Power Producer (IPP)

% o

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Cap

acity

Other:155 MW (2%)

IPP: 4,965 MW (73%)

IOU:1,492 MW

(22%)

POU:204 MW (3%)

2011 Capacity byOwner Type

Utility ownership jumped to 25% in 2011 (up from 15% in 2009 and 2010) on the back of nearly 600 MW of new capacity built/owned by MidAmerican

Cost Trends

Lazard COE Analysis 2009

0200400600800

1,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002,0002,200

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Announcement Date

Orders <5 MW

Orders from 5 - 100 MW

Orders >100 MW

Tur

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011

$/kW

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Recentreportedturbineprice

quotes

Wind Turbine Prices Continued to Decline in 2011, After Rising from 2002-2008

• Recent turbine price quotes reportedly in the range of $900-1,270/kW, with more-favorable terms for buyers and improved technology

Though Slow to Reflect Declining Wind Turbine Prices, Reported Installed Project Costs Finally Turned the Corner in 2011

Note: 2012 sample of 20 projects totaling ~2.6 GW is preliminary, but suggests lower costs for 2012 projects

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Individual Project Cost (584 projects totaling 42,614 MW)

Capacity-Weighted Average Project Cost

Economies of Scale Evident At Least At Low End of Project Size Range

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100 MW 430 MW 1,404 MW 4,372 MW 9,605 MW 5,284 MW

52 projects 34 projects 39 projects 56 projects 72 projects 22 projects

Inst

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ost (

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$/k

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Capacity-Weighted Average Project Cost

Individual Project Cost

Sample includes projects built from 2009-2011

Newer Projects Appear to Show Improvements in Operations and Maintenance Costs

Capacity-weighted average 2000-11 O&M costs for projects built in the 1980s equal $33/MWh, dropping to $23/MWh for projects built in 1990s, and to $10/MWh for projects built since 2000Note: Sample is limited, and consists of 133 wind power projects totaling 7,965 MW; few projects in sample have complete records of O&M costs from 2000-11; O&M costs reported here DO NOT include all operating costs

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Projects with no 2011 O&M data

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Polynomial Trend Line (all projects)

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Average Capacity Factors Have Improved Over Time, But Leveled Off in Recent Years

• General improvement reflects increase in hub height and rotor diameter• Drop in 2009 and 2010, and rebound in 2011, driven in part by: (1) inter-

annual wind resource variation, and (2) wind power curtailment

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1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

5 12 41 84 97 119 143 168 210 254 354 466 397

544 1,000 1,531 3,271 3,811 5,211 5,880 8,712 10,695 15,670 24,368 34,213 37,606

Capacity F

acto

r

Based on Estimated Generation (if no curtailment in subset of regions)

Based on Actual Generation (with curtailment)

4-Year Moving Average (based on estimated generation)

Year:

Projects:

MW:

Cumulative, Sample-Wide Wind Power Prices Continued to Move Higher in 2011

General trend of falling and then rising prices consistent with the project cost trends shown earlier, but cumulative nature of figure results in a smoother, less-responsive curve that lags the directional changes in cost trends

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11 12 22 33 47 64 80 97 120 150 184 233 271

588 600 741 1,444 2,294 3,103 4,056 4,987 7,980 10,535 13,701 17,190 20,189

Cumulative Capacity-Weighted Average Wind Power Price (with 25% and 75% quartiles)

Win

d P

ower

Pric

e (2

011

$/M

Wh)

Year:

Projects:

MW:

Sample includes projects built from 1998-2011

Low Wholesale Electricity Prices Continued to Challenge the Relative Economics of Wind Power

• Wholesale price range reflects flat block of power across 23 pricing nodes across the U.S.

• Recent wholesale prices reflect low natural gas prices, driven by weak economy and shale gas

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2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

47 projects 64 projects 80 projects 97 projects 120 projects 150 projects 184 projects 233 projects 271 projects

2,294 MW 3,103 MW 4,056 MW 4,987 MW 7,980 MW 10,535 MW 13,701 MW 17,190 MW 20,189 MW

2011

$/M

Wh

Nationwide Wholesale Power Price Range (for a flat block of power)

Cumulative Capacity-Weighted Average Wind Power Price (with 25% and 75% quartiles)

Wind project sample includes projects built from 1998-2011

State Policies Help Direct Location and Amount of Wind Development, but Current Policies Cannot Support

Continued Growth at Levels Seen in the Recent Past

• 29 states and D.C. have mandatory RPS

Non-Binding Goal

Source: Berkeley Lab

WI: 10% by 2015

NV: 25% by 2025

TX: 5,880 MW by 2015

PA: 8.5% by 2020

NJ: 22.5% by 2020CT: 23% by 2020

MA: 11.1% by 2009 +1%/yr

ME: 40% by 2017

NM: 20% by 2020 (IOUs)10% by 2020 (co-ops)

CA: 33% by 2020

MN: 25% by 2025Xcel: 30% by 2020

IA: 105 MW by 1999

MD: 20% by 2022

RI: 16% by 2019

HI: 40% by 2030

AZ: 15% by 2025

NY: 30% by 2015

CO: 30% by 2020 (IOUs)10% by 2020 (co-ops and munis)

MT: 15% by 2015

DE: 25% by 2025

DC: 20% by 2020

WA: 15% by 2020

NH: 23.8% by 2025

OR: 25% by 2025 (large utilities)5-10% by 2025 (smaller utilities)

NC: 12.5% by 2021 (IOUs)10% by 2018 (co-ops and munis)

IL: 25% by 2025

Mandatory RPS

VT: 20% by 2017ND: 10% by 2015

VA: 15% by 2025MO: 15% by 2021

OH: 12.5% by 2024

SD: 10% by 2015

UT: 20% by 2025

MI: 10% by 2015

KS: 20% of peak demand by 2020

OK: 15% by 2015

AK: 50% by 2025

US Small Wind Capacity

Small Wind CapacityTurbines up to 100 kW Cumulative Installations

Sources include EFO, AWEA & DWEA; estimated capacity scaled from actual data and sales reports collected from numerous manufacturers, NREL, USDA, U.S. Treasury and 30+ state agencies

< 1 MW1 - 2.5 MW2.5 - 5 MW5 - 10 MW10 - 20 MW

200 MWTotal US Installed Capacity

Year

> 20 MW

Puerto Rico and USVI

2011

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700

CaliforniaArizona

OhioWisconsin

IowaNew YorkWyomingVermont

WashingtonNevada

MassachusettsMinnesota

MontanaMaryland

IllinoisAlaska

OregonNew Jersey

ColoradoKansas

NebraskaMichigan

IdahoTexas

VirginiaPennsylvania

OklahomaMaine

South DakotaTennessee

UtahNorth Carolina

ArkansasMissouri

North DakotaConnecticut

GeorgiaNew MexicoRhode Island

DCDelawareKentucky

FloridaMississippi

Units Installed pre-2010

Units Installed 2010

Units Installed 2011

Small Wind Turbines Installed with Federal, State, Utility & Local Funding Assistance

Number of Units Installed

www.windpolicytool.org

2011 U.S. Small Wind Market Highlights• The 27 small wind turbine manufacturers from North America and

Europe responding to AWEA’s survey reported total 2011 worldwide sales of $397 million USD, totaling more than 21,000 units and 64 megawatts (MW)

• U.S. manufacturers’ combined domestic sales and exports were 33 MW, up 13.4% over 2010

• Total U.S. cumulative sales (including imports) reached 198 MW, representing 151,300 total units installed in the U.S. in 2011 (annually displacing 178,000 metric tons of CO2)

• As a result of the poor economy and inconsistent incentives in 2011, the U.S. small wind market declined by 26%, with 19 MW of new sales, representing 7,303 turbines, and $115 million in installed system revenue; sales revenues declined by 17%, with units sold down by 6.5%

• 54% of U.S. manufacturers’ sales capacity went to overseas markets, reflecting a dramatic increase (from 7.8 MW in 2010 to 17.7 MW in 2011)

2011 US Small Wind Market Highlights

• 11 international manufacturers (including 4 from U.S.) reported total sales exceeding 1 MW

• Domestic sales by U.S. manufacturers accounted for an 80% share of the 2011 U.S. market

• Sales of turbines in the U.S. for on-grid installations remained dominant, with a 91% market share of sales capacity, continuing the 2010 trend

• 27 manufacturers with a U.S. sales presence, including those from Europe and Canada, reported sales of 57 wind turbine models

• The average installed cost of small wind turbines in the U.S. in 2011 was $6,040/kW, an 11% increase from 2010

2011 Small Wind Industry/Market Developments

• U.S. economy remained sluggish, residential market especially affected; ag and commercial markets for >10 kW turbines remained good

• U.S. state incentive markets in turmoil (e.g., CA, NJ, WI, OH, NV)• Innovative state policies in several eastern states showed promise• First two turbine models certified to the AWEA standard by Small

Wind Certification Council (SWCC); an additional 26 were in testing• Interstate Turbine Advisory Council (ITAC) formed to address state

incentive qualification guidelines and turbine performance requirements

• U.S. small wind industry represents 1,600 full-time equivalent jobs• U.S. manufacturers maintained 80-85% domestic content

U.S. Small Wind Industry Challenges

• Inconsistent, erratic state incentive programs• Non-certified turbine entrants• Planning & Zoning ordinances (height, setbacks, sound) • State RPS solar set-asides & solar RECs• Competitive economics (PV, rural tariffs) • Financing • Utility resistance• Site performance prediction• USDA REAP program dramatically reduced• USFWS guidelines*• Public loss of energy/environment focus

No Offshore Turbines Commissioned in the U.S., But 10 Projects Totaling 3.8 GW Are Somewhat More Advanced in Development

• Two projects have power purchase agreements (PPAs):

• Cape Wind (MA)

• Deepwater (RI)

• Nation’s first offshore wind power PPA cancelled in 2011: NRG Bluewater (DE)

http://www.windpoweringamerica.gov/pdfs/economic_development/2009/nc_wind_benefits_factsheet.pdf

Public Attitudes Towards Wind Energy

• 6 NC Wind Surveys since 1982• Mod-1 Survey in 1982• 2002 Survey by Dennis Grady of the Appalachian State University

Energy Center• 2003 Survey by Dennis Grady of the Appalachian State University

Energy Center• March 2010 Survey by Elon University Survey• April 2010 Survey by PPP, Taylor, Scanlin & Kersey of Appalachian State

University • May 2010 Survey of Watuaga County by Marcus Taylor of Appalachian

State University

• In every survey the majority of respondents indicate support for wind energy

1982 Mod -1 Survey• 73% felt turbine had

a positive impact on surrounding area

• 81% felt wind energy had potential in western NC

• 90% indicated that the wind turbine never adversely affected them in any way

2002 Survey in Western NC

• 75.3 % wanted to see more wind energy used• 63.5% felt turbines should be permitted on ridge

tops in western NC• 79% indicated that single turbines would be

permitted in western NC on privately owned land• 57.3 indicated that clusters of wind turbines on

ridge tops should be permitted• 50.5% supported the installation of wind turbines

in National Forests

Elon March 2010 NC State Survey

• 79.5% supported the construction of wind turbines in the mountains of North Carolina

Spring 2010 PPP Wind Survey

75.3% indicated “more” in 2002 survey

Spring 2010 PPP Wind Survey

Turbines on Mountain Ridges

Comparison of 2002 & 2010 Results

2010 Watauga County Survey

2010 Watauga County Survey

2010 Watauga Survey

2010 Watauga Survey

2010 Watauga Survey

2010 Watauga Survey

Policy & Wind in NC

• Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Portfolio Standard (REPS), 2007

• 35% State Tax Credit • 30% Federal Tax Credit• Accelerated depreciation

deduction for commercial projects

• NC Green Power Program• Netmetering• Mountain Ridge Protection Act• Wind Permitting Bill• Model Wind Ordinance

Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Portfolio Standard (REPS)

• August 2007• First state in the Southeast • 12.5%by 2021 from

renewable energy resources or energy efficiency measures.

• Rural electric cooperatives and municipal electric suppliers are subject to a 10% REPS requirement

• Approx 20,000 Million KWH/year

Model Ordinance for NC

• 3 size classifications– Under 20 kW– 20 kW to 100 kW– Over 100 kW

• Setbacks from 1.1 to 2.5 times height of turbine• Includes standard definitions, permit application recommendations, noise

& shadow flicker maximums & decommissioning

Mountain Ridge Protection Act of 1983

“No building, structure or unit shall protrude at its uppermost point above the crest of the ridge by more than 35’ “

Exemptions to Ridge Law

Water, radio, telephone or television towers or any equipment for the transmission of electricity or communications or both.

Structures of a relatively slender nature and minor vertical projections of a parent building, including chimneys, flagpoles, flues, spires, steeples, belfries, cupolas, antennas, poles, wires, or windmills

“The Legislature in 1983 had in mind, the traditional, solitary farm windmill which has long been in use in rural communities, not windfarm turbines

of the size, type, or certainly number proposed here…”

NC Attorney General’s 2/4/2002 letter to TVA

Permitting of Wind Energy FacilitiesHouse Bill 809; Senate Bill 1068

• > 2 MW• Permitting requirements

defined• $2,000 fee• Public hearing(s) required• Proposes a modification of

ridge law exemption for windmills

• Exclusion Zones being discussed

Original SB 1068

• Windmills, including wind turbines for the generation of electricity having less than 100 KW rated capacity and wind turbines of 100 KW capacity and above to the extent allowed by a city or county ordinance regulating the siting of wind turbines

Substitute Bills #1 & #3

• Windmills, when the windmill is a solitary structure and is not used to generate electricity for the public consumption

• Windmills, if the windmill is associated with a residence, the primary purpose of the windmill is to generate electricity for use within the residence, and the windmill is no more than 100 feet from the base to the turbine hub