Richard Arum and Josipa Roksa

April 8, 2011Education Writers Association

*We thank the Carnegie Corporation of New York and the Lumina, Ford and Teagle Foundations for their generous financial support and the Council for Aid to Education for collaboration and assistance with data collection.Academically Adrift: Limited Learning on College Campuses

Longitudinal DesignFall 2005, Spring 2007, Spring 2009, Spring 2010, Spring 2011 (planned)

Large Scale2005-2007: 24 diverse four-year institutions; 2,341 students2005-2009: 29 diverse four-year institutions, 1,666 students

Breadth of InformationFamily background and high school information, college experiences and contexts, college transcriptsCollegiate Learning Assessment (CLA)

Note: Based on Spring 2007 survey.

Note: Based on Spring 2007 survey.

Academic time from 1925-1965 in time diaries relatively constant (39.2 to 34.1)

Note: Predicting 2007 CLA scores while controlling for 2005 CLA scores.

Note: Based on a 3-level HLM model, controlling for a range of demographic/family characteristics.

Chart2

1074.4361138.55

1079.1691184.615

1120.1131231.571

African American

White

descriptives

Descriptives

test scores by race and parental ed

based on the full sample (i.e., all students, even if not present in every year)

NOTE: the means and gaps across groups and years vary by sample (i.e., patterns would be different if we restricted to students present at all time points)

Black students go slightly down in 2007 because of the addition of 2005 scores in 2009 (i.e., retrospective addition of 2005 scores for students who made it through all four years,

which increases the 2005 score; if we considered 2005 score only for students present in 2005 and 2007, the 2005 score would be just under 1000)

200520072009200520072009

Black1010.51007.331073.04HS or less1079.381103.631175.6

Hispanic1108.471152.071164.7Some college1082.641118.471163.59

Asian1124.641147.791224.79College degree1135.031170.711223.7

White1166.121211.431267.79Grad/prof degree1177.031220.481280.26

descriptives

2005

2007

2009

baseline models

2005

2007

2009

predict class and race

Table 1. Three-level HLM models estimating the relationship between individual background and CLA scores

Model 1Model 2Model 3Model 4Model 5Model 6

Intercept (average initial status)1144.760**1147.880**1138.550**1153.520**1153.560**1147.620**

(18.097)(18.680)(18.180)(12.554)(12.563)(12.689)

Parental education

Some college2.8662.6923.087-9.244-9.221-9.094

(8.424)(10.799)(8.420)(7.567)(7.567)(7.561)

Bachelor's degree11.7709.50112.086-9.032-9.045-8.847

(8.170)(10.357)(8.167)(7.367)(7.367)(7.361)

Graduate/professional degree23.587**16.915^23.910**-1.377-1.347-1.078

(8.196)(10.207)(8.194)(7.405)(7.404)(7.400)

Race/ethnicity

African-American-88.905**-88.980**-64.114**-40.825**-40.975**-16.688

(9.969)(9.968)(11.443)(9.034)(9.034)(11.052)

Asian-28.484**-28.456**-19.323-18.734*-18.736*-10.101

(9.829)(9.829)(12.068)(8.798)(8.797)(11.265)

Hispanic-22.355^-22.317^-14.2496.8646.86614.650

(12.159)(12.158)(15.164)(10.950)(10.949)(14.312)

Other-37.027**-36.947**-32.352*-22.956*-23.112*-18.709

(11.452)(11.453)(14.781)(10.270)(10.270)(13.919)

Male-2.438-2.420-2.300-11.286*-11.309*-11.190*

(4.999)(4.998)(4.997)(4.484)(4.483)(4.480)

Other demographics

Non-English home language-41.782**-41.799**-41.495**-22.080**-22.027**-21.599**

(8.792)(8.792)(8.790)(7.909)(7.908)(7.905)

Two-parent household2.3132.2782.660-2.840-2.915-2.668

(6.712)(6.713)(6.710)(6.027)(6.027)(6.023)

Number of siblings-3.320-3.332-3.3230.5070.5280.570

(2.286)(2.286)(2.285)(2.052)(2.052)(2.051)

HS 70% or more non-white-20.647*-20.593*-20.534*-15.251^-15.286*-15.158^

(8.691)(8.691)(8.691)(7.787)(7.787)(7.785)

SAT/ACT0.457**0.433**0.454**

(0.017)(0.020)(0.021)

2007 average growth rate36.215**28.493**46.065**36.467**36.511**44.999**

(4.062)(10.471)(5.062)(4.053)(4.050)(5.211)

Interactions with Parental Education

2007*Some college5.439

(13.664)

2007*Bachelor's degree7.698

(12.937)

2007*Graduate/professional degree12.168

(12.453)

Interactions with Race/Ethnicity

2007*African-American-41.332**-34.617**

(11.473)(12.942)

2007*Asian-22.768^-21.860

(13.717)(13.737)

2007*Hispanic-3.0011.081

(18.115)(18.342)

2007*Other-16.307-15.420

(18.561)(18.572)

Interaction with SAT/ACT

2007*SAT/ACT0.059**0.029

(0.021)(0.024)

2009 average growth rate83.646**81.720**93.021**84.100**84.161**95.233**

(4.693)(12.118)(5.692)(4.659)(4.661)(5.869)

Interactions with Parental Education

2009*Some college-8.036

(15.961)

2009*Bachelor's degree-1.783

(14.978)

2009*Graduate/professional degree10.688

(14.237)

Interactions with Race/Ethnicity

2009*African-American-47.344**-55.035**

(12.998)(14.291)

2009*Asian-2.805-1.824

(17.525)(17.376)

2009*Hispanic-36.256-41.576^

(22.697)(22.736)

2009*Other7.9377.191

(22.678)(22.527)

Interaction with SAT/ACT0.018-0.032

2009*SAT/ACT(0.025)(0.028)

^p

23 percent of CLA growth between 2005 and 2009 occurs across institutions

Chart1

23

77

descriptives

Descriptives

test scores by race and parental ed

based on the full sample (i.e., all students, even if not present in every year)

NOTE: the means and gaps across groups and years vary by sample (i.e., patterns would be different if we restricted to students present at all time points)

Black students go slightly down in 2007 because of the addition of 2005 scores in 2009 (i.e., retrospective addition of 2005 scores for students who made it through all four years,

which increases the 2005 score; if we considered 2005 score only for students present in 2005 and 2007, the 2005 score would be just under 1000)

200520072009200520072009

Black1010.51007.331073.04HS or less1079.381103.631175.6

Hispanic1108.471152.071164.7Some college1082.641118.471163.59

Asian1124.641147.791224.79College degree1135.031170.711223.7

White1166.121211.431267.79Grad/prof degree1177.031220.481280.26

descriptives

000

000

000

000

2005

2007

2009

baseline models

000

000

000

000

2005

2007

2009

predict class and race

Table 1. Three-level HLM models estimating the relationship between individual background and CLA scores

Model 1Model 2Model 3Model 4Model 5Model 6

Intercept (average initial status)1144.760**1147.880**1138.550**1153.520**1153.560**1147.620**

(18.097)(18.680)(18.180)(12.554)(12.563)(12.689)

Parental education

Some college2.8662.6923.087-9.244-9.221-9.094

(8.424)(10.799)(8.420)(7.567)(7.567)(7.561)

Bachelor's degree11.7709.50112.086-9.032-9.045-8.847

(8.170)(10.357)(8.167)(7.367)(7.367)(7.361)

Graduate/professional degree23.587**16.915^23.910**-1.377-1.347-1.078

(8.196)(10.207)(8.194)(7.405)(7.404)(7.400)

Race/ethnicity

African-American-88.905**-88.980**-64.114**-40.825**-40.975**-16.688

(9.969)(9.968)(11.443)(9.034)(9.034)(11.052)

Asian-28.484**-28.456**-19.323-18.734*-18.736*-10.101

(9.829)(9.829)(12.068)(8.798)(8.797)(11.265)

Hispanic-22.355^-22.317^-14.2496.8646.86614.650

(12.159)(12.158)(15.164)(10.950)(10.949)(14.312)

Other-37.027**-36.947**-32.352*-22.956*-23.112*-18.709

(11.452)(11.453)(14.781)(10.270)(10.270)(13.919)

Male-2.438-2.420-2.300-11.286*-11.309*-11.190*

(4.999)(4.998)(4.997)(4.484)(4.483)(4.480)

Other demographics

Non-English home language-41.782**-41.799**-41.495**-22.080**-22.027**-21.599**

(8.792)(8.792)(8.790)(7.909)(7.908)(7.905)

Two-parent household2.3132.2782.660-2.840-2.915-2.668

(6.712)(6.713)(6.710)(6.027)(6.027)(6.023)

Number of siblings-3.320-3.332-3.3230.5070.5280.570

(2.286)(2.286)(2.285)(2.052)(2.052)(2.051)

HS 70% or more non-white-20.647*-20.593*-20.534*-15.251^-15.286*-15.158^

(8.691)(8.691)(8.691)(7.787)(7.787)(7.785)

SAT/ACT0.457**0.433**0.454**

(0.017)(0.020)(0.021)

2007 average growth rate36.215**28.493**46.065**36.467**36.511**44.999**

(4.062)(10.471)(5.062)(4.053)(4.050)(5.211)

Interactions with Parental Education

2007*Some college5.439

(13.664)

2007*Bachelor's degree7.698

(12.937)

2007*Graduate/professional degree12.168

(12.453)

Interactions with Race/Ethnicity

2007*African-American-41.332**-34.617**

(11.473)(12.942)

2007*Asian-22.768^-21.860

(13.717)(13.737)

2007*Hispanic-3.0011.081

(18.115)(18.342)

2007*Other-16.307-15.420

(18.561)(18.572)

Interaction with SAT/ACT

2007*SAT/ACT0.059**0.029

(0.021)(0.024)

2009 average growth rate83.646**81.720**93.021**84.100**84.161**95.233**

(4.693)(12.118)(5.692)(4.659)(4.661)(5.869)

Interactions with Parental Education

2009*Some college-8.036

(15.961)

2009*Bachelor's degree-1.783

(14.978)

2009*Graduate/professional degree10.688

(14.237)

Interactions with Race/Ethnicity

2009*African-American-47.344**-55.035**

(12.998)(14.291)

2009*Asian-2.805-1.824

(17.525)(17.376)

2009*Hispanic-36.256-41.576^

(22.697)(22.736)

2009*Other7.9377.191

(22.678)(22.527)

Interaction with SAT/ACT0.018-0.032

2009*SAT/ACT(0.025)(0.028)

^p

Note: Based on a 3-level HLM model, controlling for a range of demographic/family characteristics.

Chart3

1169.9751137.205

1214.3351163.875

1265.2821204.962

High selectivity

Low selectivity

descriptives

Descriptives

test scores by race and parental ed

based on the full sample (i.e., all students, even if not present in every year)

NOTE: the means and gaps across groups and years vary by sample (i.e., patterns would be different if we restricted to students present at all time points)

Black students go slightly down in 2007 because of the addition of 2005 scores in 2009 (i.e., retrospective addition of 2005 scores for students who made it through all four years,

which increases the 2005 score; if we considered 2005 score only for students present in 2005 and 2007, the 2005 score would be just under 1000)

200520072009200520072009

Black1010.51007.331073.04HS or less1079.381103.631175.6

Hispanic1108.471152.071164.7Some college1082.641118.471163.59

Asian1124.641147.791224.79College degree1135.031170.711223.7

White1166.121211.431267.79Grad/prof degree1177.031220.481280.26

descriptives

2005

2007

2009

baseline models

2005

2007

2009

predict class and race

Table 1. Three-level HLM models estimating the relationship between individual background and CLA scores

Model 1Model 2Model 3Model 4Model 5Model 6

Intercept (average initial status)1144.760**1147.880**1138.550**1153.520**1153.560**1147.620**

(18.097)(18.680)(18.180)(12.554)(12.563)(12.689)

Parental education

Some college2.8662.6923.087-9.244-9.221-9.094

(8.424)(10.799)(8.420)(7.567)(7.567)(7.561)

Bachelor's degree11.7709.50112.086-9.032-9.045-8.847

(8.170)(10.357)(8.167)(7.367)(7.367)(7.361)

Graduate/professional degree23.587**16.915^23.910**-1.377-1.347-1.078

(8.196)(10.207)(8.194)(7.405)(7.404)(7.400)

Race/ethnicity

African-American-88.905**-88.980**-64.114**-40.825**-40.975**-16.688

(9.969)(9.968)(11.443)(9.034)(9.034)(11.052)

Asian-28.484**-28.456**-19.323-18.734*-18.736*-10.101

(9.829)(9.829)(12.068)(8.798)(8.797)(11.265)

Hispanic-22.355^-22.317^-14.2496.8646.86614.650

(12.159)(12.158)(15.164)(10.950)(10.949)(14.312)

Other-37.027**-36.947**-32.352*-22.956*-23.112*-18.709

(11.452)(11.453)(14.781)(10.270)(10.270)(13.919)

Male-2.438-2.420-2.300-11.286*-11.309*-11.190*

(4.999)(4.998)(4.997)(4.484)(4.483)(4.480)

Other demographics

Non-English home language-41.782**-41.799**-41.495**-22.080**-22.027**-21.599**

(8.792)(8.792)(8.790)(7.909)(7.908)(7.905)

Two-parent household2.3132.2782.660-2.840-2.915-2.668

(6.712)(6.713)(6.710)(6.027)(6.027)(6.023)

Number of siblings-3.320-3.332-3.3230.5070.5280.570

(2.286)(2.286)(2.285)(2.052)(2.052)(2.051)

HS 70% or more non-white-20.647*-20.593*-20.534*-15.251^-15.286*-15.158^

(8.691)(8.691)(8.691)(7.787)(7.787)(7.785)

SAT/ACT0.457**0.433**0.454**

(0.017)(0.020)(0.021)

2007 average growth rate36.215**28.493**46.065**36.467**36.511**44.999**

(4.062)(10.471)(5.062)(4.053)(4.050)(5.211)

Interactions with Parental Education

2007*Some college5.439

(13.664)

2007*Bachelor's degree7.698

(12.937)

2007*Graduate/professional degree12.168

(12.453)

Interactions with Race/Ethnicity

2007*African-American-41.332**-34.617**

(11.473)(12.942)

2007*Asian-22.768^-21.860

(13.717)(13.737)

2007*Hispanic-3.0011.081

(18.115)(18.342)

2007*Other-16.307-15.420

(18.561)(18.572)

Interaction with SAT/ACT

2007*SAT/ACT0.059**0.029

(0.021)(0.024)

2009 average growth rate83.646**81.720**93.021**84.100**84.161**95.233**

(4.693)(12.118)(5.692)(4.659)(4.661)(5.869)

Interactions with Parental Education

2009*Some college-8.036

(15.961)

2009*Bachelor's degree-1.783

(14.978)

2009*Graduate/professional degree10.688

(14.237)

Interactions with Race/Ethnicity

2009*African-American-47.344**-55.035**

(12.998)(14.291)

2009*Asian-2.805-1.824

(17.525)(17.376)

2009*Hispanic-36.256-41.576^

(22.697)(22.736)

2009*Other7.9377.191

(22.678)(22.527)

Interaction with SAT/ACT0.018-0.032

2009*SAT/ACT(0.025)(0.028)

^p

College Graduates, Spring 2010 follow-up survey - preliminary findings

60 percent reported loans (averaging $26,800)

9 percent are currently unemployed

Only 35% earn more than $30,00048% if working FT

Only 17% earn more than $40,00023% if working FT

31 percent living with parents and relatives

Federal imposed accountability would be counterproductive (existing measurements are imperfect; unintended consequences likely)

Accountability should operate at lower levels in the system

Federal resources could provide incentives for institutional improvement, innovation and assessment

Federal resources needed to develop research infrastructure to advance scientific knowledge of learning in higher education

http://highered.ssrc.org/

Richard Arum richard.arum@nyu.edu

Josipa Roksajroksa@virginia.edu

Table 1, Model 3Table 2, Model 2