Cross-national patterns associated with adult learning systems:

Patterns of participation and outcomes

Leuven, Belgium, September 2018

RICHARD DESJARDINS

UCLA Department of Education

Overview

▪ What is meant by Adult Learning Systems?

▪ Cross-national patterns of participation

▪ Cross-national patterns of outcomes

Definition of Adult Learning Systems and some features

▪ ALS refer to mass of organized learning opportunities available to adults…… along with their underlying structures and stakeholders that shape their organization and governance

▪ General features of ALS conceptComprises governance, financing & provision structures (institutions, policies)

Beyond the responsibility of any given ministry, institution or stakeholder

Embedded in society at intersection of other systems (E&T, LM, Welfare)

Not commonly seen as a system per se, but some countries feature more coordination and integration of key elements (common language and vision)

Dynamic

and

inclusive

ALS

Opportunities to work

(gainful employment)

Key elements of an effective Adult Learning System

Policies and

programmes

related to

basic skills

Policies and

programmes

related to non-

formal

education

Policies and

programmes

related to formal

education

Employment

policies and

programmes

Institutions and policies

Ministries EmployersTrade

unionsProvidersPES/ALMPs

Coordination???

Major types of organized adult learning

▪ ….include FE qualifications attained by non-traditional students and NFE

▪ FE types include….…Adult Basic Education(ABE) (may lead to ISCED: 1,2 for 19+)

Formal and non-formal – latter may involve modules that can lead to basic qualifications

…Adult General Education(AGE) (may lead to ISCED: 3 for 21+)

Typically formal – usually upper secondary equivalence (e.g. GED)

…Adult Vocational Education(AVE) (may lead to ISCED: 4 for 21+, 5b for 26+)

Formal and non-formal – extent of formal depends on how well country’s VET system is developed

…Adult Higher Education(AHE) (leads to ISCED: 5b,5a for 26+; 6 for 30+)

Formal if part of programme that leads to qualification or non-formal if one-off extension courses

▪ NFE ...provisions may be flexibly linked to qualifications related to ABE/AGE/AVE/AHE

ABE, AHE mentioned may be non-formal and may be linked to ALE or AVE

Adult Liberal Education(ALE), for community, leisure, or basic skills related reasons

Non-formal AVE (most common)

- Basic level training may be linked to ABE (usually government-supported)

- Medium level (for safety, informational and efficiency reasons) (mostly firm-supported, may be government supported, e.g. for SMEs)

- Advanced/specialized (for profession, innovation) (mostly firm- and self- supported)

Some barriers to creating an effective Adult Learning System

▪ Common barriersPoor coordination and integration of provision

Flexible integration of NFE, ABE, AGE, AVE, AHE to qualifications, as well as ALMPs

Lack of openness of FE structures/qualification system to non-traditional students

Lack of flexibility, customization, and public support

Lack of shared/common language, understandings, purpose and vision

Keeping separate structures for youth who succeed faster and more efficiently (elitist and selective approach)

Distinguishing factors of advanced ALS

▪ Hypothesis: Countries that can successfully coordinate an effective ALS that is dynamic and inclusive will prosper more in an open global knowledge economy

Based on concept of Institutional Comparative Advantage in the Varieties of Capitalism literature

▪ Distinguishing factors of advanced ALS in different countries

Degree of openness of FE systems to non-traditional students

Flexible and open qualification systems linking to AE and non-formal provisions

A higher level of integration of ABE-AVE-AHE and ALE

Diverse provision catering to diverse needs

Targeting and outreach to socially disadvantaged adults

High and widely distributed participation in AE & foundation skills

Cross-national patterns of participation

Extent of AE: Stock vs flow

▪ Stock

Past Formal AE that has led to qualifications

Adults participated in credentialed (degree or diploma) programs

Including: Basic skill courses (ABE, AGE) ISCED 1, 2, 3

Apprenticeships (AVE) ISCED 4, 5b

Higher education (AHE) ISCED 5a, 6

Qualifications attained at older ages

▪ Flow

Current (last 12 mths) Formal and non-formal AE future qualification?

Adults participate in: Basic skills courses; Credential (degree or diploma) programs; Apprenticeships;

Work-related courses; Informal learning at work; Personal interest/personal development courses

Excludes students in regular initial cycle (those following front-loaded path to qualifications)

Stock of qualifications attained via AE

0

0

0

0

3

0

1

1

1

3

2

4

0

0

0

2

2

1

1

1

2

0

4

4

1

2

1

1

2

1

0

4

6

5

1

3

2

5

2

0

2

3

7

4

7

4

1

9

1

6

9

4

8

1

7

2

8

12

9

13

12

9

5

2

13

8

10

20

0

1

0

0

0

3

4

3

2

1

0

1

0

4

2

3

0

8

0

10

4

0

0

0

4

0

4

6

5

9

3

6

7

1

1

1

4

3

2

5

5

3

3

6

3

4

9

5

9

4

3

5

7

6

6

16

5

5

8

8

4

7

10

8

10

9

12

7

1

1

1

0

1

2

1

2

1

0

1

1

3

0

6

4

3

1

5

4

3

5

5

4

3

2

5

3

5

6

5

4

2

10

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

Japan

Flanders (Belgium)

Cyprus¹

Slovak Republic

Turkey

Russian Federation²

Greece

Austria

Czech Republic

Italy

France

Spain

Korea

Poland

Singapore

Estonia

Northern Ireland (UK)

Lithuania

Slovenia

Ireland

OECD Average

Israel

Chile

England (UK)

Australia

Netherlands

Germany

United States

New Zealand

Canada

Finland

Sweden

Norway

Denmark

ISCED 2 or lower (19+) ISCED 3 (21+) ISCED 4 (21+) ISCED 5b (26+) ISCED 5a BA (26+), MA, PHD (30+)Percent

Recent AE flow in formal provisionsExpected to add to stock of qualifications

0

0

0

1

0

0

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

1

1

1

0

0

1

2

0

0

3

2

0

2

0

1

1

1

1

2

1

0

0

1

1

1

1

0

1

1

1

1

0

1

2

1

0

4

1

1

2

5

0

1

3

2

1

3

4

2

5

1

2

7

3

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

1

1

1

0

1

2

1

1

2

0

0

0

2

0

0

4

1

4

5

1

2

2

0

6

3

0

2

0

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

1

1

0

1

2

1

2

1

3

4

1

1

4

2

1

0

2

2

0

2

2

2

1

1

3

0

2

2

1

2

2

3

2

2

2

2

3

1

1

3

3

2

4

3

3

2

6

4

3

2

3

3

6

3

4

3

5

3

4

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14

Japan

Korea

Cyprus¹

France

Czech Republic

Slovak Republic

Italy

Poland

Greece

Lithuania

Austria

Russian Federation²

Germany

Flanders (Belgium)

Estonia

Singapore

Turkey

Slovenia

Chile

OECD Average

Northern Ireland (UK)

Israel

United States

Spain

Sweden

Canada

Denmark

Finland

Australia

Netherlands

Ireland

Norway

England (UK)

New Zealand

ISCED 2 or lower (19+) ISCED 3 (21+) ISCED 4 (21+) ISCED 5b (26+) ISCED 5a BA (26+), MA, PHD (30+)Percent

Recent AE flow in all types of provisions

1

3

2

1

1

2

2

2

2

3

0

1

4

4

6

2

5

4

3

4

2

6

2

7

7

6

9

5

5

7

8

9

7

8

7

8

10

15

21

21

21

21

24

23

27

26

25

27

27

31

26

30

31

32

35

32

35

34

36

38

35

39

41

41

40

41

43

42

0

1

1

0

1

0

1

1

0

1

1

3

1

1

0

1

2

1

1

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

1

1

0

1

1

1

2

0

1

1

1

3

1

1

1

1

1

0

1

1

2

1

1

1

0

2

2

1

2

2

1

6

2

2

3

5

5

4

7

3

7

7

10

7

6

6

6

5

5

4

5

4

2

5

4

4

6

3

3

4

4

4

5

4

3

3

3

3

2

4

2

4

5

4

8

5

9

5

7

6

6

6

6

6

7

4

5

6

4

7

6

5

6

9

8

8

6

6

5

19

18

18

22

32

30

32

36

34

43

41

49

43

46

48

47

46

47

46

51

47

47

51

52

56

57

53

55

63

63

62

65

64

61

20 10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Greece

Turkey

Russian Federation²

Italy

Poland

Slovak Republic

Lithuania

Cyprus¹

France

Spain

Japan

Korea

Chile

Slovenia

Ireland

Austria

Israel

OECD Average

Flanders (Belgium)

Estonia

Czech Republic

Northern Ireland (UK)

Germany

Australia

Canada

United States

England (UK)

Singapore

Sweden

Finland

Netherlands

New Zealand

Denmark

Norway

Adult Formal Education (AFE) (qualifications) - Job related Non-Formal Education (NFE) only - Job related

AFE/NFE - Non-job related Total participation

Percent

Non-employer supported Employer-supported

Growth of AESince the 1990s

38

34

32

38

22

28

35

23

26

20

8

16

8

17

11

8

8

50

49

45

51

32

44

52

39

52

38

16

44

23

49

36

31

34

2

2

2

2

2

2

3

3

3

4

5

5

5

6

7

7

8

20 0 20 40 60

Finland

Sweden

England (UK)

Norway

Slovenia

United States

Denmark

Northern Ireland (UK)

New Zealand

Czech Republic

Italy

Canada

Poland

Netherlands

Flanders (Belgium)

Chile

Ireland

LFS annualized % change (ca 1992-2014)

PIAAC 2012-2015

IALS 1994-1998

Percent

Annualized

growth ratePercent of adults participating in

employer supported AE in PIAAC

vs IALS

22

58

53

56

45

42

48

46

33

32

31

36

27

14

22

22

19

22

63

63

64

54

56

61

65

46

46

55

62

47

32

47

48

43

0

1

1

1

1

2

2

2

2

2

3

3

4

4

5

5

5

20 0 20 40 60 80

Italy

Finland

Sweden

Denmark

England (UK)

United States

Norway

New Zealand

Slovenia

Northern Ireland (UK)

Canada

Netherlands

Czech Republic

Poland

Flanders (Belgium)

Ireland

Chile

LFS annualized % change (ca 1992-2014)

PIAAC 2012-15

IALS 1994-1998

Percent

Annualized

growth

rate

Percent of adults participating

in any AE in PIAAC vs IALS

Summary of factors predicting take-up of employer supported AE

-0,3

-0,2

-0,1

0

0,1

0,2

0,3

0,4

0,5

0,6

0,7

Read at work ICT use at work Firm Size

Occupation Education Literacy skill

Sector Industry Age

Immigration-language status Gender

Effect sizes

Socio-demographic factors related to AEAdjusted probabilities of participating in any AE by age

0

0,1

0,2

0,3

0,4

0,5

0,6

0,7

0,8

0,9

16-25 (Youth) 26-40 (Early career aged)

41-55 (Mid career aged) 56-65 (Late career aged)

Adj. Probability

Socio-demographic factors related to AE Adjusted probabilities of participating in any AE by literacy

proficiency

0

0,1

0,2

0,3

0,4

0,5

0,6

0,7

0,8

0,9

Level 4/5 Level 3 Level 2 Level 1 or below

Adj. Probability

Cross-national patterns of outcomes

Advantage of having attained ISCED 3 as an adult (21+) vs not attaining ISCED 3 at all

Ad

va

nta

ge

of h

av

ing

att

ain

ed

IS

CED

3 b

ey

on

d n

orm

ativ

e a

ge

v

s n

ot

att

ain

ing

ISC

ED

3

0,7 0,6 0,5 0,4 0,3 0,2 0,1 0,0 0,1 0,2 0,3 0,4 0,5 0,6 0,7 0,8 0,9 1,0

Japan

US

Estonia

Ireland

Sweden

Korea

Norway

Italy

Denmark

UK

Netherlands

France

Austria

Finland

Germany

Spain

Belgium

Cyprus

Poland

Czech Republic

Slovak Republic

Advantage of having attained ISCED 3 beyond normative age vs not attaining ISCED 3

ISCED 3, beyond normative age >20

ISCED 3, within normative age <=20

Did not complete ISCED 3

Adj. Probability

Advantage of having attained ISCED 5a as an adult (26+) vs not attaining HE at all

0,3 0,2 0,1 0,0 0,1 0,2 0,3 0,4 0,5 0,6 0,7 0,8 0,9 1,0

Czech Republic

US

Japan

Spain

Cyprus

UK

Finland

France

Denmark

Norway

Austria

Estonia

Belgium

Italy

Sweden

Korea

Ireland

Netherlands

Poland

Slovak Republic

Germany

Advantage/disadvantage of completing beyond normative ageEarnings premium for ISCED 5a (BA), beyond normative age >25Earnings premium for ISCED 5a (BA), within normative age <=25

Effect size

Ad

va

nta

ge

of h

av

ing

att

ain

ed

q

ua

lific

atio

n b

ey

on

d v

s w

ith

in

no

rma

tiv

e a

ge

Disa

dv

an

tag

e o

f ha

vin

g a

ttain

ed

q

ua

lifica

tion

be

yo

nd

vs w

ithin

n

orm

ativ

e a

ge

Openness of FE systems to adults students and employment rate

y = 0,9919x - 0,5258

R² = 0,2512

0,00

0,05

0,10

0,15

0,20

0,25

0,30

0,35

0,40

0,45

0,50

0,50 0,55 0,60 0,65 0,70 0,75 0,80 0,85

Employment rate

Pe

rce

nt

wh

o a

tta

ine

d h

igh

est

qu

alific

atio

n b

ey

on

d n

orm

ativ

e a

ge

Correlation = 0.5

y = 0.4597x - 0.2414

R² = 0.23501

0,00

0,05

0,10

0,15

0,20

0,25

0,50 0,55 0,60 0,65 0,70 0,75 0,80 0,85

Employment rate

Pe

rce

nt

wh

o a

tta

ine

d H

E q

ua

lific

atio

n b

ey

on

d n

orm

ativ

e a

ge

Correlation = 0.48

Openness of HE systems to adults students and employment rate

Openness of HE systems to adults students and literacy skills

AT

CA

CY

CZ

DK

ET

FI

FR

DE

IR

KO

NL

NO

PL

SL

ES

SE

UK

US

IT

R² = 0,3824

0,00

0,05

0,10

0,15

0,20

0,25

0,30

0,35

0,40

250 255 260 265 270 275 280 285 290 295 300

Average literacy skill score (PIAAC) of adult populations

Ratio of HE graduates over 30 vs under 30

Correlation = 0.62