richard isted transport modelling
DESCRIPTION
AITPM 2014 National Conference presentationTRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Richard Isted Transport modelling](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062617/54c50d8a4a7959226f8b461f/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
The Use of Antifragility Heuristics in Transport PlanningRICHARD ISTED
![Page 2: Richard Isted Transport modelling](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062617/54c50d8a4a7959226f8b461f/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
A Long Term Understanding of Transport
![Page 3: Richard Isted Transport modelling](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062617/54c50d8a4a7959226f8b461f/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
An Activity based understanding – a “Platonic” approach
![Page 4: Richard Isted Transport modelling](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062617/54c50d8a4a7959226f8b461f/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
The problem for Transport Models in the Long Term
• People change their behavioural preferences
• Travel modes and other technological features that are currently not available may be in the future
• Travel modes that are currently available may become redundant
• “Black Swan” events defy inductive reasoning in-built in transport models.
![Page 5: Richard Isted Transport modelling](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062617/54c50d8a4a7959226f8b461f/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Defining Fragility, Resilience and Antifragility
![Page 6: Richard Isted Transport modelling](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062617/54c50d8a4a7959226f8b461f/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Concavity and Convexity in responses
Concavity Convexity
![Page 7: Richard Isted Transport modelling](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062617/54c50d8a4a7959226f8b461f/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
A simple example - investment in public transport
![Page 8: Richard Isted Transport modelling](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062617/54c50d8a4a7959226f8b461f/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
A case study – Which corridor to invest in?
y = 29.644x3 - 178661x2 + 4E+08x - 2E+11
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
2000 2005 2010 2015
Series1
Poly. (Series1)
y = -229.79x3 + 1E+06x2 - 3E+09x + 2E+12
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Series1
Poly. (Series1)
South East Corridor
North East Corridor
South West Corridor
![Page 9: Richard Isted Transport modelling](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062617/54c50d8a4a7959226f8b461f/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
How long should one stick with a transport strategy?
![Page 10: Richard Isted Transport modelling](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022062617/54c50d8a4a7959226f8b461f/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
www.jacobs.com | worldwide
The Use of Antifragility Heuristics in Transport Planning
RICHARD ISTED – [email protected]