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Richmond Brothers, Inc. is a Registered Investment Adviser. Formalities. Richmond Brothers, Inc. is a Registered Investment Adviser. Richmond Brothers, Inc. does not provide tax or legal advice; consult your tax or legal advisor regarding your particular situation. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Richmond Brothers, Inc. is a Registered Investment Adviser.
Richmond Brothers, Inc. is a Registered Investment Adviser.
Richmond Brothers, Inc. does not provide tax or legal advice; consult your tax or legal advisor regarding your particular situation.
The indices mentioned in this seminar are unmanaged and not available for direct investment. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Opinions, estimates, forecasts, and statements of financial market trends that are based on current market conditions constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice. We believe the information contained in this commentary has been obtained from sources that are reliable. This presentation is for
information purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any security.
These are the views of Platinum Advisor Marketing Strategies, LLC, and not necessarily those of the named representative, Broker dealer or Investment Advisor, and should not be construed as investment advice. Neither the named representative nor the named Broker dealer or Investment Advisor gives tax or legal
advice. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however, we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. Please consult your financial advisor for further information.
FORMALITIES
Source: Investment News
FAILED PREDICTIONS
Prediction: “No! No! No! Bear Stearns is not in trouble!” – Jim Cramer
Reality: Five days later, JPMorgan Chase took over the firm, wiping out shareholders.
Source: Investment News
FAILED PREDICTIONS
Prediction: “Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae are fundamentally sound; they’re not in danger of going under.” - Rep. Barney Frank
Reality: Two months later, the mortgage giants were forced into conservatorship.
Source: Investment News
FAILED PREDICTIONS
Prediction: T. Boone Pickens in 2008 predicted that the price of oil — then at $135 a barrel — would hit $150 by the end of 2008.
Reality: By late December, the price of crude had fallen below $40.
Source: Investment News
FAILED PREDICTIONS
Prediction: “I don’t see [subprime mortgage market troubles] imposing a serious problem. I think it’s going to be largely contained.”
- Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson
Reality: He was wrong. Really wrong.
2013 So FarFactors Affecting the Stock Market and
EconomyBond Prices, Interest Rates, and The
Federal ReserveForecasts (Not Predictions) for 2013
AGENDA
The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general.
All index returns exclude reinvested dividends. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Data Source: Yahoo Finance.
+12.6%
THE FIRST HALF
Dec 28 Close1,402.43
Jun 28 Close1,606.28
Name/Company 2013 S&P 500 Target
Stephen Auth – Federated Investors 1,660
Barry Knapp – Barclays Capital 1,525
Jeffrey Knight – Putnam Investments 1,490
Russ Koesterich – BlackRock 1,545
David Kostin – Goldman Sachs 1,575
Thomas Lee – JP Morgan Chase 1,580
Tobias Levkovich – Citi Research 1,615
Adam Parker – Morgan Stanley 1,434
John Praveen – Prudential International 1,600
Savita Subramanian – Bank of America 1,600
GROUP AVERAGE 1,562 (9.6% growth)
Source: Barrons.com
ORIGINAL FORECASTS
1,606 (12.6% growth) Revised1,686 (16% growth) as of 7/31/13
COMPARING RETURNS
Source: Yahoo Finance. Disclosures on following slide. YTD is up until 6/31/2013.
Index 2013 YTDRussell 2000 Growth 17.05%Russell 2000 15.09%S&P 500 Value 14.33%Russell 2000 Value 13.27%S&P 500 12.63%S&P 500 Growth 11.04%MSCI EAFE 2.18%Barclays Aggregate Bond -3.48%MSCI Emerging Markets -10.89%
DISCLOSURES
The indices mentioned on the previous slide are unmanaged and not available for direct investment. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All data is sourced from Yahoo Finance and MSCI unless otherwise noted.
S&P 500 measures the performance of large capitalization U.S. stocks. The S&P 500 is a market-value-weighted index of 500 stocks that are traded on the NYSE, AMEX, and NASDAQ. The weightings make each company’s influence on the Index performance directly proportional to that company’s market value.
S&P 500 Growth and S&P 500 Value measure the performance of the growth and value styles of investing in large cap U.S. stocks. The indices are constructed by dividing the market capitalization of the S&P 500 Index into Growth and Value indices, using style “factors” to make the assignment. The Value Index contains those S&P 500 securities with a greater-than-average value orientation, while the Growth Index contains those securities with a greater-than average growth orientation. The indices are market-capitalization-weighted. The constituent securities are not mutually exclusive.
Russell 2000 measures the performance of small capitalization U.S. stocks. The Russell 2000 is a market-value-weighted index of the 2,000 smallest stocks in the broad-market Russell 3000 Index. These securities are traded on the NYSE, AMEX, and NASDAQ.
Russell 2000 Value and Russell 2000 Growth measure the performance of the growth and value styles of investing in small cap U.S. stocks. The indices are constructed by dividing the market capitalization of the Russell 2000 Index into Growth and Value indices, using style “factors” to make the assignment. The Value Index contains those Russell 2000 securities with a greater-than-average value orientation, while the Growth Index contains those securities with a greater-than-average growth orientation. Securities in the Value Index generally have lower price-to-book and price-earnings ratios than those in the Growth Index. The indices are market-capitalization-weighted. The constituent securities are not mutually exclusive.
MSCI EAFE is a Morgan Stanley Capital International Index that is designed to measure the performance of the developed stock markets of Europe, Australasia, and the Far East.
MSCI Emerging Markets is a Morgan Stanley Capital International Index that is designed to measure the performance of equity markets in 21 emerging countries around the world.
Barclays Aggregate Bond Index (formerly the Lehman Brothers Aggregate Bond Index) includes U.S. government, corporate, and mortgage-backed securities with maturities of at least one year.
COMPARING HYPOTHETICAL RETURNS
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
-40.0%
-30.0%
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
5.5%
-37.0%
26.5%
15.1%
2.1%
16.0%
7.0%5.2% 5.9% 6.5% 7.8%
4.2%6.2%
-15.9%
16.2%
10.8%
5.0%
10.1%
This is a hypothetical example only, and is not intended to represent any actual investment. Indexes are unmanaged and not available for direct investment. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. The Barclays Aggregate Bond Index
includes U.S. government, corporate, and mortgage-backed securities with maturities of at least one year. The 50% Stock / 50% Bond blend is a hybrid of 50% S&P 500 and 50% Barclays Aggregate Bond Index. All index returns exclude reinvested dividends. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Data Source: Yahoo Finance.
Standard & Poors 500: 4.7%
Barclays Agg. Bond Index: 6.1%
50/50 Blend: 5.4%
RISK TOLERANCE
2013 So FarFactors Affecting the Stock Market and
Economy
AGENDA
Sources: Standard & Poor’s, Compustat, BEA, FactSet J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Data are as of 6/30/13.
HEALTHY CORPORATIONS
Sources: Standard & Poor’s, Compustat, BEA, FactSet J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Data are as of 6/30/13.
HEALTHY CORPORATIONS
Source: Census Bureau, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Data are as of 6/30/13.
HOUSING MARKET
Sources: National Association of Realtors, Standard & Poor’s, FHFA, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Data are as of 6/30/13.
HOUSING MARKET
Sources: National Association of Realtors, Standard & Poor’s, FHFA, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Data are as of 6/30/13.
HOUSING MARKET
Source: BEA, FRB, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. *2Q13 household debt service ratio and household net worth are J.P. Morgan Asset Management estimates. Values may not sum to 100% due to rounding. Data are as of 6/30/13.
CONSUMERS
Source: BLS, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.Data are as of 6/30/13.
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
Civilian Unemployment Rate – Seasonally Adjusted
Source: BLS, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.Data are as of 6/30/13.
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
Employment – Total Private PayrollTotal Job Gain/Loss (thousands)
GOVERNMENT SPENDING
**Measured at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate. Sources: United States Commerce Department, online.wsj.com
Source: Yahoo Finance as of 06/28/2013. The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX) is a popular measure of the volatility of S&P 500 Index options. A
high value corresponds to a more volatile market and therefore more costly options, which can be used to defray risk from this volatility by selling options. Often
referred to as the fear index, it represents one measure of the market’s expectation of volatility over the next 30-day period. It is not possible to invest directly in an
index. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
VOLATILITY
Flash Crash05-06-10
S&P Downgrades U.S. Credit
Rating08-05-11
PERIODS OF RECOVERY
2013 So FarFactors Affecting the Stock Market and
EconomyBond Prices, Interest Rates, and The
Federal Reserve
AGENDA
Source: BLS.gov, online.wsj.com. Projections are based on opinions of analysts polled at the time of the survey. Real Gross Domestic Product at an annualized growth rate.Survey conducted June 7-11, 2013. The Wall Street Journal surveys a group of 56 economists throughout the year.
FORECASTS: FED FUNDS TARGET RATE
Historical
Forecast
Hypothetical example for illustration only. Not intended to reflect any actual investment.
BONDS AND INTEREST RATES
5% Interest Rate | Bond Price $1,000
5.5% Interest Rate |
Bond
Price $9004.5% Interest Rate
|
Bond
Price $1,100
Price Movements of a Hypothetical Bond
Source: Federal Reserve as of 06/30/2013.
BONDS AND INTEREST RATES
Rising Interest RatesBond Bear Market
Falling Interest RatesBond Bull Market
June 30, 2013 2.49%Jan. 2, 1962
4.06%
Sept. 30, 198115.84%
2013 So FarFactors Affecting the Stock Market and
EconomyBond Prices, Interest Rates, and The
Federal ReserveForecasts (Not Predictions) for 2013
AGENDA
The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general.
All index returns exclude reinvested dividends. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Data Source: Yahoo Finance.
+135%
SINCE THE 2007 PEAK
+3%
Source: FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Data shown in log scale to best illustrate long-term index patterns. P/E ratios shown at price peaks and troughs use trailing four quarters of reported earnings and are show as a one year average. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Chart is for illustrative purposes only. Data are as of 6/30/13.
HISTORY LESSON
Year S&P 500Annual Return
$1,000,000 Investment
4% draw
2008 -37% $630,000 $590,0002009 26% $793,800 $703,4002010 15% $912,870 $768,9102011 2% $931,127 $744,2882012 16% $1,080,107 $823,374
HYPOTHETICAL EXAMPLE
This chart assumes a $40,000/year withdrawal for income. S&P 500 annual return assume dividends included. Numbers have been rounded. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Past performance is not indicative of future returns.
HISTORY LESSON
“In the 68 years beginning with 1946, the S&P 500 index has risen 10 percent or more, 23 times (during the first half of the year), according to data from S&P Dow Jones Indices. During those 23 years, the market rose the second half of the year 19 times. Eleven of those years, or nearly half, the S&P 500 rose at least 10 percent the second half of the year.”
Source: Steve Rothwell, The Associated Press
2013 S&P 500 Target
1,660
1,525
1,490
1,545
1,575 1,775
1,580 1,715
1,615
1,434 1,600
1,600
1,600
1,730
1,625
1,650 – 1,700
1,627 (12.4% growth)Sources: CNBC, Business Insider, Bespoke Investment Group
FORECAST – S&P 500
1,686 (16% growth) as of 7/31/13
Source: BLS.gov, online.wsj.com. Projections are based on opinions of analysts polled at the time of the survey. Real Gross Domestic Product at an annualized growth rate.Survey conducted June 7-11, 2013. The Wall Street Journal surveys a group of 56 economists throughout the year.
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
2.3%
-0.8%
0.2%
2.8%
1.6%1.8%
2.3%
2.8%3.0%
ANNUAL GDP – HISTORICAL & FORECAST
Source: online.wsj.com. Projections are based on opinions of analysts polled at the time of the survey. Real Gross Domestic Product at an annualized growth rate. The Wall Street Journal surveys a group of 56 economists throughout the year. Broad surveys on more than 10 major economic indicators are conducted monthly.
FORECAST – U.S. ECONOMY
Is the risk to your 2013 growth forecastmore to the upside or the downside?
December 2012 Survey June 2013 Survey
Source: The views displayed on this slide represent the opinions of Oppenheimer as of 6/30/13, are subject to change based on subsequent developments, arenot intended as investment advice, and are not intended to predict or depict the performance of any investment.
FORECAST
Interest Rates
U.S. Corporate Sector
U.S. Housing
Central Bank Policy
U.S. Credit
Global Growth
Global Inflation
U.S. Politics
U.S. Consumer
Eurozone Crisis
UNTIL NEXT TIME