richmond brothers, inc. is a registered investment adviser

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Richmond Brothers, Inc. is a Registered Investment Adviser.

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Richmond Brothers, Inc. is a Registered Investment Adviser. Formalities. Richmond Brothers, Inc. is a Registered Investment Adviser. Richmond Brothers, Inc. does not provide tax or legal advice; consult your tax or legal advisor regarding your particular situation. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: Richmond Brothers, Inc. is a Registered Investment Adviser

Richmond Brothers, Inc. is a Registered Investment Adviser.

Page 2: Richmond Brothers, Inc. is a Registered Investment Adviser

Richmond Brothers, Inc. is a Registered Investment Adviser.

Richmond Brothers, Inc. does not provide tax or legal advice; consult your tax or legal advisor regarding your particular situation.

The indices mentioned in this seminar are unmanaged and not available for direct investment. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Opinions, estimates, forecasts, and statements of financial market trends that are based on current market conditions constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice. We believe the information contained in this commentary has been obtained from sources that are reliable. This presentation is for

information purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any security.

These are the views of Platinum Advisor Marketing Strategies, LLC, and not necessarily those of the named representative, Broker dealer or Investment Advisor, and should not be construed as investment advice. Neither the named representative nor the named Broker dealer or Investment Advisor gives tax or legal

advice. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however, we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. Please consult your financial advisor for further information.

FORMALITIES

Page 3: Richmond Brothers, Inc. is a Registered Investment Adviser

Source: Investment News

FAILED PREDICTIONS

Prediction: “No! No! No! Bear Stearns is not in trouble!” – Jim Cramer

Reality: Five days later, JPMorgan Chase took over the firm, wiping out shareholders.

Page 4: Richmond Brothers, Inc. is a Registered Investment Adviser

Source: Investment News

FAILED PREDICTIONS

Prediction: “Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae are fundamentally sound; they’re not in danger of going under.” - Rep. Barney Frank

Reality: Two months later, the mortgage giants were forced into conservatorship.

Page 5: Richmond Brothers, Inc. is a Registered Investment Adviser

Source: Investment News

FAILED PREDICTIONS

Prediction: T. Boone Pickens in 2008 predicted that the price of oil — then at $135 a barrel — would hit $150 by the end of 2008.

Reality: By late December, the price of crude had fallen below $40.

Page 6: Richmond Brothers, Inc. is a Registered Investment Adviser

Source: Investment News

FAILED PREDICTIONS

Prediction: “I don’t see [subprime mortgage market troubles] imposing a serious problem. I think it’s going to be largely contained.”

- Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson

Reality: He was wrong. Really wrong.

Page 7: Richmond Brothers, Inc. is a Registered Investment Adviser

2013 So FarFactors Affecting the Stock Market and

EconomyBond Prices, Interest Rates, and The

Federal ReserveForecasts (Not Predictions) for 2013

AGENDA

Page 8: Richmond Brothers, Inc. is a Registered Investment Adviser

The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general.

All index returns exclude reinvested dividends. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Data Source: Yahoo Finance.

+12.6%

THE FIRST HALF

Dec 28 Close1,402.43

Jun 28 Close1,606.28

Page 9: Richmond Brothers, Inc. is a Registered Investment Adviser

Name/Company 2013 S&P 500 Target

Stephen Auth – Federated Investors 1,660

Barry Knapp – Barclays Capital 1,525

Jeffrey Knight – Putnam Investments 1,490

Russ Koesterich – BlackRock 1,545

David Kostin – Goldman Sachs 1,575

Thomas Lee – JP Morgan Chase 1,580

Tobias Levkovich – Citi Research 1,615

Adam Parker – Morgan Stanley 1,434

John Praveen – Prudential International 1,600

Savita Subramanian – Bank of America 1,600

GROUP AVERAGE 1,562 (9.6% growth)

Source: Barrons.com

ORIGINAL FORECASTS

1,606 (12.6% growth) Revised1,686 (16% growth) as of 7/31/13

Page 10: Richmond Brothers, Inc. is a Registered Investment Adviser

COMPARING RETURNS

Source: Yahoo Finance. Disclosures on following slide. YTD is up until 6/31/2013.

Index 2013 YTDRussell 2000 Growth 17.05%Russell 2000 15.09%S&P 500 Value 14.33%Russell 2000 Value 13.27%S&P 500 12.63%S&P 500 Growth 11.04%MSCI EAFE 2.18%Barclays Aggregate Bond -3.48%MSCI Emerging Markets -10.89%

Page 11: Richmond Brothers, Inc. is a Registered Investment Adviser

DISCLOSURES

The indices mentioned on the previous slide are unmanaged and not available for direct investment. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All data is sourced from Yahoo Finance and MSCI unless otherwise noted.

S&P 500 measures the performance of large capitalization U.S. stocks. The S&P 500 is a market-value-weighted index of 500 stocks that are traded on the NYSE, AMEX, and NASDAQ. The weightings make each company’s influence on the Index performance directly proportional to that company’s market value.

S&P 500 Growth and S&P 500 Value measure the performance of the growth and value styles of investing in large cap U.S. stocks. The indices are constructed by dividing the market capitalization of the S&P 500 Index into Growth and Value indices, using style “factors” to make the assignment. The Value Index contains those S&P 500 securities with a greater-than-average value orientation, while the Growth Index contains those securities with a greater-than average growth orientation. The indices are market-capitalization-weighted. The constituent securities are not mutually exclusive.

Russell 2000 measures the performance of small capitalization U.S. stocks. The Russell 2000 is a market-value-weighted index of the 2,000 smallest stocks in the broad-market Russell 3000 Index. These securities are traded on the NYSE, AMEX, and NASDAQ.

Russell 2000 Value and Russell 2000 Growth measure the performance of the growth and value styles of investing in small cap U.S. stocks. The indices are constructed by dividing the market capitalization of the Russell 2000 Index into Growth and Value indices, using style “factors” to make the assignment. The Value Index contains those Russell 2000 securities with a greater-than-average value orientation, while the Growth Index contains those securities with a greater-than-average growth orientation. Securities in the Value Index generally have lower price-to-book and price-earnings ratios than those in the Growth Index. The indices are market-capitalization-weighted. The constituent securities are not mutually exclusive.

MSCI EAFE is a Morgan Stanley Capital International Index that is designed to measure the performance of the developed stock markets of Europe, Australasia, and the Far East.

MSCI Emerging Markets is a Morgan Stanley Capital International Index that is designed to measure the performance of equity markets in 21 emerging countries around the world.

Barclays Aggregate Bond Index (formerly the Lehman Brothers Aggregate Bond Index) includes U.S. government, corporate, and mortgage-backed securities with maturities of at least one year.

Page 12: Richmond Brothers, Inc. is a Registered Investment Adviser

COMPARING HYPOTHETICAL RETURNS

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

-40.0%

-30.0%

-20.0%

-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

5.5%

-37.0%

26.5%

15.1%

2.1%

16.0%

7.0%5.2% 5.9% 6.5% 7.8%

4.2%6.2%

-15.9%

16.2%

10.8%

5.0%

10.1%

This is a hypothetical example only, and is not intended to represent any actual investment. Indexes are unmanaged and not available for direct investment. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. The Barclays Aggregate Bond Index

includes U.S. government, corporate, and mortgage-backed securities with maturities of at least one year. The 50% Stock / 50% Bond blend is a hybrid of 50% S&P 500 and 50% Barclays Aggregate Bond Index. All index returns exclude reinvested dividends. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Data Source: Yahoo Finance.

Standard & Poors 500: 4.7%

Barclays Agg. Bond Index: 6.1%

50/50 Blend: 5.4%

Page 13: Richmond Brothers, Inc. is a Registered Investment Adviser

RISK TOLERANCE

Page 14: Richmond Brothers, Inc. is a Registered Investment Adviser

2013 So FarFactors Affecting the Stock Market and

Economy

AGENDA

Page 15: Richmond Brothers, Inc. is a Registered Investment Adviser

Sources: Standard & Poor’s, Compustat, BEA, FactSet J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Data are as of 6/30/13.

HEALTHY CORPORATIONS

Page 16: Richmond Brothers, Inc. is a Registered Investment Adviser

Sources: Standard & Poor’s, Compustat, BEA, FactSet J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Data are as of 6/30/13.

HEALTHY CORPORATIONS

Page 17: Richmond Brothers, Inc. is a Registered Investment Adviser

Source: Census Bureau, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Data are as of 6/30/13.

HOUSING MARKET

Page 18: Richmond Brothers, Inc. is a Registered Investment Adviser

Sources: National Association of Realtors, Standard & Poor’s, FHFA, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Data are as of 6/30/13.

HOUSING MARKET

Page 19: Richmond Brothers, Inc. is a Registered Investment Adviser

Sources: National Association of Realtors, Standard & Poor’s, FHFA, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Data are as of 6/30/13.

HOUSING MARKET

Page 20: Richmond Brothers, Inc. is a Registered Investment Adviser

Source: BEA, FRB, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. *2Q13 household debt service ratio and household net worth are J.P. Morgan Asset Management estimates. Values may not sum to 100% due to rounding. Data are as of 6/30/13.

CONSUMERS

Page 21: Richmond Brothers, Inc. is a Registered Investment Adviser

Source: BLS, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.Data are as of 6/30/13.

UNEMPLOYMENT RATE

Civilian Unemployment Rate – Seasonally Adjusted

Page 22: Richmond Brothers, Inc. is a Registered Investment Adviser

Source: BLS, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.Data are as of 6/30/13.

UNEMPLOYMENT RATE

Employment – Total Private PayrollTotal Job Gain/Loss (thousands)

Page 23: Richmond Brothers, Inc. is a Registered Investment Adviser

GOVERNMENT SPENDING

**Measured at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate. Sources: United States Commerce Department, online.wsj.com

Page 24: Richmond Brothers, Inc. is a Registered Investment Adviser

Source: Yahoo Finance as of 06/28/2013. The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX) is a popular measure of the volatility of S&P 500 Index options. A

high value corresponds to a more volatile market and therefore more costly options, which can be used to defray risk from this volatility by selling options. Often

referred to as the fear index, it represents one measure of the market’s expectation of volatility over the next 30-day period. It is not possible to invest directly in an

index. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

VOLATILITY

Flash Crash05-06-10

S&P Downgrades U.S. Credit

Rating08-05-11

Page 25: Richmond Brothers, Inc. is a Registered Investment Adviser

PERIODS OF RECOVERY

Page 26: Richmond Brothers, Inc. is a Registered Investment Adviser

2013 So FarFactors Affecting the Stock Market and

EconomyBond Prices, Interest Rates, and The

Federal Reserve

AGENDA

Page 27: Richmond Brothers, Inc. is a Registered Investment Adviser

Source: BLS.gov, online.wsj.com. Projections are based on opinions of analysts polled at the time of the survey. Real Gross Domestic Product at an annualized growth rate.Survey conducted June 7-11, 2013. The Wall Street Journal surveys a group of 56 economists throughout the year.

FORECASTS: FED FUNDS TARGET RATE

Historical

Forecast

Page 28: Richmond Brothers, Inc. is a Registered Investment Adviser

Hypothetical example for illustration only. Not intended to reflect any actual investment.

BONDS AND INTEREST RATES

5% Interest Rate | Bond Price $1,000

5.5% Interest Rate |

Bond

Price $9004.5% Interest Rate

|

Bond

Price $1,100

Price Movements of a Hypothetical Bond

Page 29: Richmond Brothers, Inc. is a Registered Investment Adviser

Source: Federal Reserve as of 06/30/2013.

BONDS AND INTEREST RATES

Rising Interest RatesBond Bear Market

Falling Interest RatesBond Bull Market

June 30, 2013 2.49%Jan. 2, 1962

4.06%

Sept. 30, 198115.84%

Page 30: Richmond Brothers, Inc. is a Registered Investment Adviser

2013 So FarFactors Affecting the Stock Market and

EconomyBond Prices, Interest Rates, and The

Federal ReserveForecasts (Not Predictions) for 2013

AGENDA

Page 31: Richmond Brothers, Inc. is a Registered Investment Adviser

The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general.

All index returns exclude reinvested dividends. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Data Source: Yahoo Finance.

+135%

SINCE THE 2007 PEAK

+3%

Page 32: Richmond Brothers, Inc. is a Registered Investment Adviser

Source: FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Data shown in log scale to best illustrate long-term index patterns. P/E ratios shown at price peaks and troughs use trailing four quarters of reported earnings and are show as a one year average. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Chart is for illustrative purposes only. Data are as of 6/30/13.

HISTORY LESSON

Page 33: Richmond Brothers, Inc. is a Registered Investment Adviser

Year S&P 500Annual Return

$1,000,000 Investment

4% draw

2008 -37% $630,000 $590,0002009 26% $793,800 $703,4002010 15% $912,870 $768,9102011 2% $931,127 $744,2882012 16% $1,080,107 $823,374

HYPOTHETICAL EXAMPLE

This chart assumes a $40,000/year withdrawal for income. S&P 500 annual return assume dividends included. Numbers have been rounded. Source: Yahoo Finance.

Page 34: Richmond Brothers, Inc. is a Registered Investment Adviser

Past performance is not indicative of future returns.

HISTORY LESSON

“In the 68 years beginning with 1946, the S&P 500 index has risen 10 percent or more, 23 times (during the first half of the year), according to data from S&P Dow Jones Indices. During those 23 years, the market rose the second half of the year 19 times. Eleven of those years, or nearly half, the S&P 500 rose at least 10 percent the second half of the year.”

Source: Steve Rothwell, The Associated Press

Page 35: Richmond Brothers, Inc. is a Registered Investment Adviser

2013 S&P 500 Target

1,660

1,525

1,490

1,545

1,575 1,775

1,580 1,715

1,615

1,434 1,600

1,600

1,600

1,730

1,625

1,650 – 1,700

1,627 (12.4% growth)Sources: CNBC, Business Insider, Bespoke Investment Group

FORECAST – S&P 500

1,686 (16% growth) as of 7/31/13

Page 36: Richmond Brothers, Inc. is a Registered Investment Adviser

Source: BLS.gov, online.wsj.com. Projections are based on opinions of analysts polled at the time of the survey. Real Gross Domestic Product at an annualized growth rate.Survey conducted June 7-11, 2013. The Wall Street Journal surveys a group of 56 economists throughout the year.

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

2.3%

-0.8%

0.2%

2.8%

1.6%1.8%

2.3%

2.8%3.0%

ANNUAL GDP – HISTORICAL & FORECAST

Page 37: Richmond Brothers, Inc. is a Registered Investment Adviser

Source: online.wsj.com. Projections are based on opinions of analysts polled at the time of the survey. Real Gross Domestic Product at an annualized growth rate. The Wall Street Journal surveys a group of 56 economists throughout the year. Broad surveys on more than 10 major economic indicators are conducted monthly.

FORECAST – U.S. ECONOMY

Is the risk to your 2013 growth forecastmore to the upside or the downside?

December 2012 Survey June 2013 Survey

Page 38: Richmond Brothers, Inc. is a Registered Investment Adviser

Source: The views displayed on this slide represent the opinions of Oppenheimer as of 6/30/13, are subject to change based on subsequent developments, arenot intended as investment advice, and are not intended to predict or depict the performance of any investment.

FORECAST

Interest Rates

U.S. Corporate Sector

U.S. Housing

Central Bank Policy

U.S. Credit

Global Growth

Global Inflation

U.S. Politics

U.S. Consumer

Eurozone Crisis

Page 39: Richmond Brothers, Inc. is a Registered Investment Adviser

UNTIL NEXT TIME