Rick Cruse Rick Cruse (rmc@iastate.edu)– (rmc@iastate.edu)– Iowa Water CenterIowa Water Center

Gene Takle Gene Takle (gstakle@iastate.edu)(gstakle@iastate.edu) – Climate Science Initiative – Climate Science Initiative

Iowa State UniversityIowa State University

Climate Change Impacts on BiofuelClimate Change Impacts on BiofuelProductionProduction

Presented at: American Chemical Society MeetingsApril 11, 2008

Careful and comprehensive scientific assessments have clearly demonstrated that the Earth’s climate system is changing rapidly in response to growing atmospheric burdens of greenhouse gases and absorbing aerosolparticles (IPCC, 2007). There is very little room for doubt that observed climate trends are due to human activities. The threats are serious and action is urgently needed to mitigate the risks of climate change.

ACS Position on Global ACS Position on Global Climate ChangeClimate Change

VisionVision

Replace equivalent of 30% of liquid fuels Replace equivalent of 30% of liquid fuels by 2030by 2030

Derived dominantly from plant biomass – a Derived dominantly from plant biomass – a renewable resourcerenewable resource

Perlack, Robert D., Lynn L. Wright, Anthony F. Turnhollow, Robin L. Graham, BryceJ. Stokes, and Donald C. Erbach. 2005. Biomass as a Feedstock for a Bioenergy and BioproductsIndustry: the Technical Feasibility of a Billion-ton Annual Supply. DOE/GO-102005-2135ORNL/TM-2005/66. Available at: http://www.fs.fed.us/research/.

Burton C. English, Daniel G. De La Torre Ugarte, Kim Jensen, Chad Hellwinckel, Jamey Menard, Brad Wilson, Roland Roberts, and Marie Walsh. 2006. 25% Renewable Energy for the United States By 2025: Agricultural and Economic Impacts. The University of Tennessee Institute of Agriculture Department of Agricultural Economics. http://beag.ag.utk.edu/

Cellulose to Fill the GapCellulose to Fill the GapCourtesy of Wally Wilhelm – USDA/ARSCourtesy of Wally Wilhelm – USDA/ARS

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Ethanol from corn (NCGA**)

Gap for cellulose ethanol to fill

October 2007 capacity*(6.9 billion gal)

*RFA, http://www.ethanolrfa.org/industry/statistics/#C**NCGA, http://www.ncga.com/ethanol/pdfs/2007/HowMuchEthanolCanComeFromCorn0207.pdfREAP

Climate Change – Why might it Climate Change – Why might it affect biofuels?affect biofuels?

Natural resource degradationNatural resource degradation

Climate Change – Why might it Climate Change – Why might it affect biofuels?affect biofuels?

Direct effects: crop yields – stress impactsDirect effects: crop yields – stress impacts

Climate Change – Why might it Climate Change – Why might it affect biofuels?affect biofuels?

PMS, biofuels, & climate changePMS, biofuels, & climate change

Future Bioeconomy and Natural Future Bioeconomy and Natural Resource ConcernsResource Concerns

Plant residues, feedstock for liquid fuels, are Plant residues, feedstock for liquid fuels, are renewablerenewable

Plant residue production dependent on soil Plant residue production dependent on soil and water resourcesand water resources

Soil resources are not renewable; water is Soil resources are not renewable; water is only conditionally renewableonly conditionally renewable

Plant residues required for bioindustry – Plant residues required for bioindustry – Plant residues required for soil and water Plant residues required for soil and water conservationconservation

Future Bioeconomy and Its Future Bioeconomy and Its Impacts on Soil and Water Impacts on Soil and Water

ResourcesResources Do we have the science to identify Do we have the science to identify

acceptable removal rates?acceptable removal rates? Can we balance energy needs, financial Can we balance energy needs, financial

interests, and soil/water preservation in interests, and soil/water preservation in the bioenergy industry? the bioenergy industry?

Residue Impacts on ErosionResidue Impacts on Erosion

Residue Cover (%)

Ero

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- %

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50

30 %

Effect of Residue Cover on Soil Erosion

100%

Laflen, J. M., and T. S. Colvin.  Effect of crop residue on soil loss from continuous row cropping. Trans. Am. Soc. Agric. Eng. 24(3):605-609.  1981.

Soil Erosion ImpactsSoil Erosion Impacts

Kazemi, Masoud, L.C. Dumenil, and T.E. Fenton. 1990. Effects of accelerated erosion on corn yields of loess-derived and till-derived soils in Iowa. Final report for Soil Conservation Service, Agreement No. 68-6114-0-8, Des Moines, IA.

Trends in PrecipitationTrends in Precipitation

Trends in PrecipitationTrends in Precipitation

Groisman, Pavel Ya., Richard W. Knight, David R. Easterling, Thomas R. Karl,Gabriele C. Hegerl, and Vyacheslav N. Razuvaev. 2005. Trends in intense precipitation in the climate record. J. of Climate. 18:1326-1350.

Climate Change, Soil & WaterClimate Change, Soil & Water

20% precipitation leads to 37% erosion 20% precipitation leads to 37% erosion ((Lee et al. 1996)Lee et al. 1996)

Runoff 10% - 310% for different Midwest Runoff 10% - 310% for different Midwest regions regions ((O’Neal et al. 2005)O’Neal et al. 2005)

Soil loss 33% - 274% for different Soil loss 33% - 274% for different Midwest regions Midwest regions ((O’Neal et al. 2005)O’Neal et al. 2005)

Lee, J.L., D.L. Phillips, and R.F. Dodson. 1996. Sensitivity of the US Corn Belt to climate change and elevated CO2:II. Soil erosion and organic carbon. Agric. Systems 52: 503–521.

Monte R. O’Neal, M.A. Nearing, Roel C. Vining, Jane Southworth, and Rebecca A. Pfeifer.2005.Climate change impacts on soil erosion in Midwest United States with changes in crop management. Catena 61:165-184.

Natural Resource Goals - Possible

Common market for wide range of crops Multiple purpose, multiple function

Farmland Ownership Farmland Ownership HARVESTED FARMLAND - % RentedHARVESTED FARMLAND - % Rented11

Iowa – 56% (Cash rent %: 49, 54, 69% - Iowa – 56% (Cash rent %: 49, 54, 69% - 1982, 1992, 2002 respectively)1982, 1992, 2002 respectively)

Illinois – 62% Illinois – 62% Indiana – 58%Indiana – 58%

“When farmers and herders lose control or long-term security over the land they use, the incentives for maintaining environmentally sustainable practices are lost.” 2

1http://www.nass.usda.gov/census/census02/volume1/us/st99_2_040_040.pdf

2Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005. Ecosystems and Human Well-being: Desertification Synthesis. World Resources Institute, Washington, DC.

““Nothing accelerates faster, Nothing accelerates faster, stops quicker, or corners harder stops quicker, or corners harder than a rented car” than a rented car” 11

Farmland OwnershipFarmland Ownership

1Personal Communication – Trevor Price, Anheuser Busch ‘ethanol’ distributor. 2006.

Connect the DotsConnect the Dots

Frequency of extreme climatic eventsFrequency of extreme climatic events Industry needs crop residuesIndustry needs crop residues Incentives for long term land careIncentives for long term land care Risk for escalating soil degradation Risk for escalating soil degradation

Crop Yields – Stress Impacts Crop Yields – Stress Impacts

WaterWater HeatHeat DiseaseDisease Insect pestInsect pest

Direct EffectsDirect Effects

““It is projected with Medium Confidence It is projected with Medium Confidence (about 5 in 10 chance to be correct) that (about 5 in 10 chance to be correct) that globally, potential food production will globally, potential food production will increase for temperature rises of 1-3 °C, increase for temperature rises of 1-3 °C, but decrease for higher temperature but decrease for higher temperature ranges. Fortunately, temperatures are not ranges. Fortunately, temperatures are not expected to rise to these ranges in the expected to rise to these ranges in the near future.”near future.”

IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers

Direct EffectsDirect Effects ““Yields of three major crops (corn, soybeans, Yields of three major crops (corn, soybeans,

and cotton) in the United States are predicted to and cotton) in the United States are predicted to decrease by 25-44% under the slowest warming decrease by 25-44% under the slowest warming scenario and 60-79% under the most rapid scenario and 60-79% under the most rapid warming scenario in our preferred model.” warming scenario in our preferred model.”

Schlenker, Wolfram and Michael J. Roberts. 2006. Estimating the impact of climate Schlenker, Wolfram and Michael J. Roberts. 2006. Estimating the impact of climate change on crop yields: The importance of non-linear temperature effects. Journal of change on crop yields: The importance of non-linear temperature effects. Journal of Economic Literature. Economic Literature. http://www.agecon.ucdavis.edu/research/seminars/files/michaelroberts_climatechanghttp://www.agecon.ucdavis.edu/research/seminars/files/michaelroberts_climatechangecropyields.pdf. ecropyields.pdf.

Direct EffectsDirect Effects

Studies have over estimated the positive Studies have over estimated the positive higher COhigher CO22 concentration effects on crop concentration effects on crop

yields.yields.

David Schimel. 2006. Climate Change and Crop Yields: Beyond Cassandra. Science. 312 (5782):1889-1890.

Precipitation minus Evaporation for Western US

(25N-40N, 95W-125 W)

R. Seager, et al. 2007. Model Projections of an Imminent Transition to a More Arid Climate in Southwestern North America. Science, Vol. 316. no. 5828, pp. 1181 - 1184

Direct EffectsDirect Effects

Fischer, et al., 2002: Global agro-ecological assessment for agriculture in the 21st century: methodology and results. Research Report RR-02-02. ISBN 3-7045-0141-7., International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria, 119 pp. [Online at http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Research/LUC/Papers/gaea.pdf] Cited in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, Working Group II, Ch. 5, p. 280.

Soil and Terrain Suitability Index (SI) for a Range of Rain-Fed Crops and Pasture Types for the Current Climate

Direct EffectsDirect Effects

IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers

Direct EffectsDirect Effects

Disease and Insect Pest StressDisease and Insect Pest Stress Crops developed for unique set ofCrops developed for unique set of

SoilsSoils Climate – means & extremesClimate – means & extremes

• TemperatureTemperature• PrecipitationPrecipitation

Insect & disease pressureInsect & disease pressure Diseases & insects sensitive Diseases & insects sensitive

Climate – means & extremesClimate – means & extremes Energy source (food)Energy source (food) CompetitionCompetition

D. Herzmann, Iowa Environmental Mesonet

Connecting the DotsConnecting the Dots

IPCC science suggests crop productivity IPCC science suggests crop productivity will temporarily increase with changing will temporarily increase with changing climateclimate

Recent research suggests IPCC report Recent research suggests IPCC report was overly optimisticwas overly optimistic

Food production will likely not meet food Food production will likely not meet food demand.demand.

Food vs. biofuelFood vs. biofuel

PMS response to PMS response to climate changeclimate change

PPolitical & olitical & MMoral oral SStandardstandards

Millennium Ecosystem Millennium Ecosystem Assessment ReportAssessment Report

During the next 50 years, demand for food During the next 50 years, demand for food crops is projected to grow by 70–85% crops is projected to grow by 70–85% under the MA scenarios, and demand for under the MA scenarios, and demand for water by between 30% and 85%.water by between 30% and 85%.

Millennium Ecosystem Millennium Ecosystem Assessment ReportAssessment Report

““Over the past 50 years, humans have Over the past 50 years, humans have changed ecosystems faster and more changed ecosystems faster and more extensively than in any period in human extensively than in any period in human history.”history.”

““This degradation of ecosystem services This degradation of ecosystem services could get significantly worsecould get significantly worse during the during the next 50 years. It is a barrier to the next 50 years. It is a barrier to the achievement of the Millennium achievement of the Millennium Development Goals.”Development Goals.”

Soil ResourcesSoil Resources

““Nearly forty percent of the world's Nearly forty percent of the world's agricultural land is seriously degraded”agricultural land is seriously degraded”11

1World Resources Institute. 2000. http://www.commondreams.org/news2000/0523-01.htm

“Converting rainforests, peatlands, savannas, or grasslands to produce food-based biofuels in Brazil, Southeast Asia, and the United States creates a ‘biofuel carbon debt’ by releasing 17 to 420 times more CO2 than the annual greenhouse gas (GHG) reductions these biofuels provide by displacing fossil fuels”1.

Land Clearing and the Biofuel Carbon Debt

1Joseph Fargione, Jason Hill, David Tilman, Stephen Polasky, and Peter Hawthorne. 2008. Land clearing and the biofuel carbon debt. Sciencexpress. 7 February 2008. Pp. 1 - 3. www.sciencexpress.org

Use of U.S. Croplands for Biofuels Increases Greenhouse Gases Through Emissions from Land Use Change1

“Using a worldwide agricultural model to estimate emissions from land use change, we found that corn-based ethanol, instead of producing a 20% savings, nearly doubles greenhouse emissions over 30 years and increases greenhouse gases for 167 years.”

1Timothy Searchinger,Ralph Heimlich, R. A. Houghton, Fengxia Dong, Amani Elobeid, Jacinto Fabiosa, Simla Tokgoz, Dermot Hayes, Tun-Hsiang 2008. Use of U.S. croplands for biofuels increases greenhouse gases through emissions from land use change. Sciencexpress. 7 February 2008. Pp. 1 - 3. www.sciencexpress.org

“Several recent studies have addressed possible future changes in heat waves, and found that, in a future climate, heat waves are expected to be more intense, longer lasting and more frequent.”1

Climate Change

1Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 2007. Working Group I: The Physical Science Basis for Climate Change. http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/wg1/Report/AR4WG1_Print_TS.pdf

The Ethanol VisionThe Ethanol VisionCourtesy of Wally Wilhelm – USDA/ARSCourtesy of Wally Wilhelm – USDA/ARS

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Connecting the DotsConnecting the Dots

Food vs. fuel is a real dilemma Food vs. fuel is a real dilemma Climate change will likely reduce food Climate change will likely reduce food

production potential globallyproduction potential globally Demand for food-producing land area will Demand for food-producing land area will

likely increase, as will that for biofuelslikely increase, as will that for biofuels PMS will control the extent of biofuel PMS will control the extent of biofuel

production in an increasingly hungry worldproduction in an increasingly hungry world

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““Simply plugging in ‘renewable resources’ to replace Simply plugging in ‘renewable resources’ to replace fossil resources is not enough. The world just fossil resources is not enough. The world just cannot support the level of energy use that the cannot support the level of energy use that the current ‘developed’ nations enjoy. Either we change current ‘developed’ nations enjoy. Either we change our lifestyle to reduce inputs, or we diminish our our lifestyle to reduce inputs, or we diminish our numbers. Attempting to grow the supply side of numbers. Attempting to grow the supply side of energy or any other of a suite of resources will fail in energy or any other of a suite of resources will fail in the long haul because we are up against the the long haul because we are up against the ultimate carrying capacity of the earth. If we ignore ultimate carrying capacity of the earth. If we ignore this fact and the current warning signs, Mother this fact and the current warning signs, Mother Nature will make the choice for us”—Nature will make the choice for us”—

Steven Fales, Professor of agronomySteven Fales, Professor of agronomyand associate director, Office of and associate director, Office of Biorenewables Programs, ISUBiorenewables Programs, ISU