right to work and the michigan economy presented to: mid-michigan lera october 8, 2013
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Right to Work and the Michigan Economy Presented to: Mid-Michigan LERA October 8, 2013. Charles L. Ballard Department of Economics Michigan State University East Lansing, MI [email protected]. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Right to Work and the Michigan Economy
Presented to:Mid-Michigan LERA
October 8, 2013
Charles L. BallardDepartment of EconomicsMichigan State University
East Lansing, [email protected]
First, some facts about the percentage of workers who are union members in the United States (data for 2011):
% of Private % of Public % of Total
State Rank Employees Employees Employees
New York 1 13.572.2 24.1
Alaska 2 11.053.2 22.1
Hawaii 3 14.150.7 21.5
Washington 4 11.152.4 18.9
Michigan 5 11.9 52.0 17.5
California 7 9.056.9 17.1
Illinois 10 10.652.0 16.2
Ohio 17 8.642.6 13.4
Indiana 23 8.928.3 11.2
Florida 37 2.826.4 6.3
Texas 41 3.017.1 5.2
Mississippi 44 3.410.4 5.0
N. Carolina 51 1.6 9.1 2.9
Across the country, the rates of unionization have fallen over the years.
Percent of Workers Who Are Union Members, for Selected States, 1964 and 2011
1964 2011 Change
New York 35.5 24.1-11.4
Alaska 39.7 22.1-17.6
Washington 44.5 18.9-25.6
Michigan 44.8 17.5 -27.3
California 33.0 17.1-15.9
Illinois 35.6 16.2-19.4
Ohio 37.6 13.4-24.2
United States 29.3 11.9 -17.4
Indiana 40.9 11.2-29.7
Florida 14.0 6.3- 7.7
Texas 13.5 5.2- 8.3
N. Carolina 8.4 2.9- 5.5
20112008
20052002
19991996
19931990
19871984
19811978
19751972
19691966
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Union Members as a Percent of the Labor Force, 1964-2011
Michigan
Louisiana
United States
Year
In Michigan, as in many other parts of the country, the union losses of recent decades have been relatively larger in the private sector.
Union Members as Percent of Workers in Michigan, 1983 and 2011
19832011 Change
Private Sector 25.311.9 - 13.4
Manufacturing 46.220.1 - 26.1
Public Sector 56.852.0 - 4.8
Manufacturing’s Share of the Economy Has Shrunk Dramatically
19631965
19671969
19711973
19751977
19791981
19831985
19871989
19911993
19951997
19992001
20032005
20072009
20110
10
20
30
40
50
60
Manufacturing as a Percent of Gross Product,In Michigan and the United States, 1963-2011
Michigan
United States
Year
Perc
ent
19901991
19921993
19941995
19961997
19981999
20002001
20022003
20042005
20062007
20082009
20102011
20122013
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
Manufacturing Employment in Michigan, 1990-2013(Seasonally Adjusted Data for July of Each Year)
Year
Man
ufac
turi
ng E
mpl
oym
ent,
in T
hous
ands
Tax Effort Has Reduced Substantially
1972
1975
1978
1981
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
State and Local Taxes as Percent of Personal Income, 1972-2010
New York
Michigan
United States
Texas
Year
Per
cen
t
My Assessment:
Right to Work is unlikely to make much difference.
For better or worse, the strength of labor unions has already diminished greatly.
What Does the Michigan Public Think?
State of the State Survey Round 64
1,013 Interviews CompletedJanuary 14, 2013 – March 4, 2013
• 42.7% of Michigan Residents Said They Believe the Right-to-Work Law Will Help the Economy.
• 41% Said It Will Hurt.
• That’s a Statistical Tie.
Help A Lot Help A Little No Effect Hurt A Little Hurt A Lot0
5
10
15
20
25
30
17.2
25.5
16.318.5
22.5
Michigan Residents' Views of Whether the Right-to-Work Law Will Help or Hurt the Economy
Perc
ent
Statewide Not Union Member Union Member0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
42.746.4
12.3
41.037.1
73.7
Michigan Residents' Views of Whether the Right-to-Work Law Will Help or Hurt the Economy, By Union Membership
HelpHurt
Perc
ent
Views of Michigan Residentsby Race and Sex
State of Michigan Men Women Whites Blacks
Right-to-Work Law Will Help the Economy 42.7% 49.6% 36.1% 45.4% 24.9%
Views of MichiganResidents
by Political Party
State of Michigan Republican Independent Democrat
Right-to-Work Law Will Help the Economy
42.7% 74.2% 42.3% 24.8%
Views of Michigan Residentsby Support for Gov. Snyder
State of Michigan
Snyder “Excellent”
Snyder “Good”
Snyder “Fair”
Snyder “Poor”
Right-to-Work Law Will Help the Economy
42.7% 74.0% 64.2% 41.7% 18.2%
Views of Michigan Residentsby Ideology
State of Michigan
VeryLiberal Liberal Moderate Conservative Very
Conservative
Right-to-Work Law Will Help The Economy
42.7% 10.9% 20.9% 42.3% 57.8% 62.6%
Advocates of right-to-work laws say they will bring prosperity.
At best, the evidence for this is mixed.
Per-Capita Personal Income, 2011:
• Right-to-Work States:$38,046
• Non-RTW States:$44,515
0 5 10 15 20 25 3025,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
55,000
60,000
41560
34880
45665
3506233740
4364744053
57902
4144939636
35979
42925
32881
43721
35689
4115640883
33989
38549 38299
50656
53471
MI
44560
32000
37969
36016
42450
36964
45881
52430
34133
51126
36028
47236
3783637679 37527
42291
43875
33388
44217
36567
40147
33509
41572
46107
43878
33403
39575
47898
Per-Capita Personal Income and Union Membership, For the 50 States, 2011
Union Members as Percent of the Labor Force
Per-
Capi
ta P
erso
nal I
ncom
e
Many of the states with the highest incomes have high levels of educational attainment.
19501953
19561959
19621965
19681971
19741977
19801983
19861989
19921995
19982001
20042007
201085
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
Per-Capita Personal Income in Massachusetts and Michigan, As a Percent of the U.S. Average, 1950-2012
Massachusetts
Michigan
Year
Perc
ent
15 20 25 30 35 4025,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
55,000
60,000
39791
33710
43749
3377332373
4189342107
55427
3942538345
34531
40952
31556
42025
34028
37882 38545
32504
3711636629
48621
51143
34326
42528
30841
3640634405
39445
35777
43968
50428
32940
49119
34604
42462
3593135535 35906
4044442001
32193
39558
35103
38222
32121
39736
44134
42024
31806
38010
45353
Per-Capita Personal Income and College Attainment For the 50 States, 2010
Percent of Population Aged 25 and Over With At Least a Bachelor's Degree
Per-
Capi
ta P
erso
nal I
ncom
e
This slide is brought to you by the letter “M”:
EducationIncome
State Rank 2010Rank 2010
Massachusetts 1 2
Minnesota 1010
Michigan 3439
Mississippi 4950
Income inequality in the United States has increased to levels not seen since 100 years ago. This is because:
1. The supply of highly skilled workers has increased less than the demand.
2. Deregulation of financial services.
3. Weaker labor unions.
4. Less progressive taxation.
19131917
19211925
19291933
19371941
19451949
19531957
19611965
19691973
19771981
19851989
19931997
20012005
20090
5
10
15
20
25
Percentage of Income in the United States Received by the Top One Percent of Households, 1913-2010
(Source: Thomas Piketty and Emmanuel Saez)
Year
Perc
ent
Michigan, My Michigan
A song to thee, fair State of mine,Michigan, my Michigan.
But greater song than this is thine,Michigan, my Michigan.
The whisper of the forest tree,The thunder of the inland sea,Unite in one grand symphony
Of Michigan, my Michigan.